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X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 12:07:22 -0000 --000000000000276128063d6bbfef Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000276128063d6bbfee" --000000000000276128063d6bbfee Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/new-economic-geography-posen?s= =3DESPAZ005G4&check_logged_in=3D1 The New Economic GeographyWho Profits in a Post-American World?Adam S. Pose= n September/October 202= 5 Published on August 19, 2025 [image: image.png] Ben Jones ADAM S. POSEN is President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The post-American world economy has arrived. U.S. President Donald Trump=E2= =80=99s radical shift in economic approach has already begun to change norms, behaviors, and institutions globally. Like a major earthquake, it has given rise to new features in the landscape and rendered many existing economic structures unusable. This event was a political choice, not an inevitable natural disaster. But the changes that it is driving are here to stay. No guardrails will automatically restore the previous status quo. To understand these changes, many analysts and politicians focus on the degree to which supply chains and trade in manufactured goods are shifting between the United States and China. But that focus is too narrow. Asking whether the United States or China will remain central to the world=E2=80=99s economy=E2=80=94or looking primarily at trad= e balances=E2=80=94yields a dramatic underestimate of the scope and impact of= Trump=E2=80=99s changed approach and how comprehensively the prior U.S. framework undergirded the economic decisions made by almost every state, financial institution, and company worldwide. In essence, the global public goods that the United States provided after the end of World War II =E2=80=94among others, the ability to securely navigate the air and seas, the presumption that property is safe from expropriation, rules for international trade, and stable dollar assets in which to transact business and store money=E2= =80=94can be thought of, in economic terms, as forms of insurance. The United States collected premiums from the countries that participated in the system it led in a variety of ways, including through its ability to set rules that made the U.S. economy the most attractive one to investors. In return, the societies that bought into the system were freed to expend much less effort on securing their economies against uncertainty, enabling them to pursue the commerce that helped them flourish. Some pressures had been building within this system before Trump=E2=80=99s = ascent. But particularly in his second term, Trump has switched the United States= =E2=80=99 role from global insurer to extractor of profit. Instead of the insurer securing its clients against external threats, under the new regime, the threat against which insurance is sold comes as much from the insurer as from the global environment. The Trump administration promises to spare clients from its own assaults for a higher price than before. Trump has threatened to block access to American markets on a broad scale; made the protections that come with military alliances explicitly dependent on the purchase of U.S. weapons, energy, and industrial products; required foreigners who want to operate businesses in the United States to make side payments to his personal priorities; and pressured Mexico, Vietnam, and other countries to drop Chinese industrial inputs or investment by Chinese companies. These acts are on a scale unprecedented in modern U.S. governance. The United States=E2=80=99 withdrawal of its former insurance will fundamen= tally change the behavior of the country=E2=80=99s clients and its clients=E2=80= =99 clients=E2=80=94and not in the ways that Trump hopes. China , the country whose behavior most U.S. officials want to change, will likely be the least affected, while the United States=E2=80=99 closest allies will be the most damaged. A= s other U.S. partners watch these reliant allies suffer, they will seek to self-insure instead, at great cost to them. Assets will become harder to save and investment abroad less appealing. As their exposure to global economic and security risks rises, governments will find that both foreign diversification and macroeconomic policy have become less effective tools for stabilizing their economies. Some argue that Trump=E2=80=99s new posture will simply drive a potentially desirable realignment. In this view, although his program requires both governments and businesses to pay more for less, the world will ultimately accept its new normal, to the United States=E2=80=99 benefit. This is a del= usion. In the world Trump=E2=80=99s program creates, everyone will suffer=E2=80=94= not least the United States. GANGSTER=E2=80=99S PARADISE Imagine that you were fortunate enough to inherit a piece of land by the ocean. It always offered great views and beach access. But you only invested in building a grand house on the lot when a well-regulated, reliable company came along that offered sufficient home insurance. You had to pay a pretty penny for it, of course. But that company=E2=80=99s coverag= e also enabled the owners of nearby lots to build, inspiring the creation of a rewarding neighborhood with roads, water, cell towers, rising home values=E2=80=94and most crucially, the guarantee that if you continued to p= ay premiums insuring you against floods and hurricanes, any further investments you made in your property would be at low risk. In essence, this is the economic situation in which much of the world operated for nearly 80 years. The United States recouped enormous benefits by acting as the world=E2=80=99s dominant insurance provider after World Wa= r II. By assuming this role, it also maintained some control over other countries=E2= =80=99 economic and security policies without having to resort to harsh threats. In return, countries that participated in the system were shielded from various forms of risk. Washington=E2=80=99s military supremacy and the mech= anisms of international order that it enforced allowed national borders to remain mostly settled; most economies could thrive without the threat of conquest. Between 1980 and 2020, incomes converged overall both between and within the states that took part. Economic injustices persisted; at times, they were imposed by the United States. But broadly, this global insurance regime was a win-win for nearly everyone with regard to economic stability, innovation, and growth. Violence and warfare declined overall, and poorer states were better able to integrate their economies with higher-income markets that opened up to trade. This security may have rested on a communal illusion about how little military investment and action it would take to keep geopolitics stable. But that regime persisted for decades, in part because U.S. policymakers in both parties valued the system and in part because enough outside actors believed in it and benefited from it. Now that sense of safety is gone. Imagine, again, your hypothetical beachfront house. Some threats to your property have started to increase: sea levels are rising, and hurricanes are becoming deadlier. Instead of simply raising your premium, however, your insurer=E2=80=94which you had lo= ng trusted and dutifully paid=E2=80=94suddenly begins to refuse your claims fo= r damage unless you pay double your official rate and slip the insurer something extra under the table, too. Even if you do pay what is asked, the insurer then writes to say that it is tripling the price of your general premium for less comprehensive coverage. Alternative insurers are not available. Meanwhile, your taxes begin to rise, and your day-to-day public services become less reliable because of the demands that disaster response is placing on your community. The United States profited handsomely from being an insurance provider. Trump is not the only actor responsible for the breakdown of the economic regime that prevailed for 80 years. The list of contributing factors=E2=80= =94the underlying threats not posed by your home insurer, in the beach house analogy=E2=80=94is long. The rise of China, and the United States=E2=80=99 = response, played a part. So, too, did climate change, the advance of information technology, and the U.S. electorate=E2=80=99s understandable loss of trust in incumbent= elites after the country=E2=80=99s interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, the 2008= =E2=80=939 global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. But the Trump administration=E2=80=99s policies constitute a clear turning = point. The president=E2=80=99s supporters sometimes portray these as a mere repric= ing of risk: the free world=E2=80=99s insurer is adjusting its fees and services t= o fit new realities and correct a previous tendency to underprice its offerings. This depiction is mistaken. The Trump administration has made clear that it wants the United States to operate a completely different kind of scheme, in which it weaponizes and maintains uncertainty in order to extract as much as it can for as little as possible in return. Trump and his advisers would argue that this is simple reciprocity or fair treatment for countries that, in their view, exploited the United States for decades. Yet those countries never extracted anything that remotely matched what the United States received: dirt cheap long-term loans to the U.S. government; disproportionately massive foreign investment in American corporations and the U.S. workforce; a near-global adherence to U.S. technical and legal standards that advantaged U.S.-based producers; reliance on the U.S. financial system for the vast majority of global transactions and reserves; compliance with U.S. initiatives on sanctions; payments for garrisoning American troops; widespread dependence on the U.S. defense industry; and best of all, a sustained rise in the American standard of living. Not only did the United States profit handsomely from being an insurance provider that others valued, but its allies also ceded many important security-related decisions to Washington. The great thing about providing insurance is that for years at a time, you don=E2=80=99t have to do or pay anything to collect your premiums. That is = even truer for the form of economic insurance the United States provided globally than it is for a home insurance provider, because the very existence of the U.S. security guarantees reduced the real-world threats to policyholders. This reduced the claims paid out. But the Trump administration is jettisoning this profitable and steady business model in favor of one that reinforces the opposite cycle. Ever-fewer clients will become more at risk. Already, businesses, governments, and investors are fundamentally changing their practices to try to self-insure instead. FIGHT OR FLIGHT In truth, Trump=E2=80=99s approach will do the greatest damage to the econo= mies that are most closely tied to the U.S. economy and took the previous rules of the game most for granted: Canada, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Take Japan: it had bet on the United States long term, investing substantially in U.S.-located production for over 45 years and transferring its technological and managerial innovations along the way. It has placed a larger share of its people=E2=80=99s savings in U.S. Treasurie= s for longer than any other economy. Japan agreed to serve as the United States= =E2=80=99 floating aircraft carrier on the frontline with China, and it garrisons U.S. troops in Okinawa despite growing domestic opposition. Japan supported the first Trump administration in the G-7 and the G-20, followed the Biden administration in adopting parallel sanctions against Russia after Russia= =E2=80=99s invasion of Ukraine, and, since 2013, has increased its military spending substantially in line with U.S. policy priorities. Until this year, what Japan got in return was reliable platinum-tier coverage. Japanese investors and businesses were able to take it for granted that they could sell products competitively in the U.S. market, get their savings in and out of U.S. Treasury bonds and other dollar-denominated assets as needed, and safely invest in production in the United States. Japan=E2=80=99s economic strategy heading into Trump=E2=80= =99s second term was based on the assumption that this coverage would continue, if at a higher price: in 2023 and 2024, Japanese companies announced investment plans that emphasized their readiness to put even more capital into U.S. industries, including uncompetitive ones such as steel, and forgo some market share in China to coordinate with the United States. The trade deal announced in mid-July between the United States and Japan has increased the price tag for Japan well beyond that and diminished Japan=E2=80=99s coverage. The 15 = percent tariffs imposed on the country are ten times what they had been and affect autos and auto parts, steel, and other major Japanese industries. Japan committed to creating a fund that invests an additional 14 percent of the country=E2=80=99s GDP into the United States=E2=80=94its monies spent at Tr= ump=E2=80=99s personal discretion=E2=80=94that will cede a share of any profits to the United Stat= es. This constitutes a huge downgrade in Japanese savers=E2=80=99 expected returns a= nd control compared with their prior private-sector investments, which were not subjected to such arbitrary U.S. government oversight. Explicit provisions requiring Japan to buy U.S. aircraft, rice, and other agricultural products, as well as support Alaskan natural gas extraction, expose the country to new risks. Even if Japan delivers on the agreement, it will remain vulnerable to Trump=E2=80=99s potential decisions to unilate= rally raise its premium and reduce its coverage even further. Meanwhile, Washington=E2=80=99s recent accommodations to China on the semiconductor tr= ade further diminish the benefits for Japan of pursuing an alliance-based economic path. U.S. allies will not accept a =E2=80=9Crebalancing=E2=80=9D imposed on them= . The Trump administration expected that its key allies would simply pay any price for U.S. protection. So far, Japan, Mexico, the Philippines, and the United Kingdom have followed an approach closest to the one that the Trump administration anticipated. In the near term, these countries have decided that their fates must lie with the United States, whatever the cost. But Trump underestimated the degree to which allies=E2=80=99 closeness to the U= nited States would lead them to register Washington=E2=80=99s new stance as a sho= cking betrayal. The popularity of the United States has declined sharply: in the Pew Research Center=E2=80=99s spring 2025 survey on attitudes toward the Un= ited States, the proportion of Japanese citizens who viewed the country favorably had slid by 15 percentage points from a year earlier; the country=E2=80=99s favorability rating had plummeted by 20 points among Cana= dians and 32 points among Mexicans. This large and negative shift reflects the sense of disappointment that only those truly invested in a relationship can feel. National security concerns, existing ties, and=E2=80=94in the case of Canad= a and Mexico=E2=80=94geographical proximity will limit the degree to which the Un= ited States=E2=80=99 closest allies can undo their economic dependence. Yet they= have more room to do so than advocates of Trump=E2=80=99s economic approach appr= eciate. Canada has resisted Trump=E2=80=99s attempts to unilaterally revise the 202= 0 U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement and impose asymmetrically high tariffs on Canadian goods. Prime Minister Mark Carney and all of Canada=E2=80=99s provincial premiers announced in July that, to reduce the country=E2=80=99s dependence on the United States, they had agreed to limit their concessions to Trump=E2=80=99s escalating demands and actively pursue increased interna= l integration. Carney also vowed to expand trade with the EU and other entities. Other close U.S. allies such as Australia and South Korea will probably decide that in the near term, they have no choice but to throw in their lot with the United States. Over time, however, allies may well tire of the declining benefits that appeasement yields and reorient their investments. Like Canada, they will try to expand their ties with China, the EU, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). But this reorientation will yield a worse outcome for all these economies. They relied economically on the United States for good reason; if substitute markets, investments, and products were just as valuable, they would have chosen those in the first place. In the absence of fairly priced U.S. insurance, the value proposition changes. LEFT BEHIND The seismic Trump shock has hit other major economic land masses, too. ASEAN and the EU were always less fully aligned with the United States on economic and security policy than the five most integrated allies were. The two blocs are diverse, with a variety of commercial specializations, advantages, and political orientations within their memberships. Yet they and their member states=E2=80=94particularly Germany, France, the Netherlan= ds, Singapore, Sweden, and Vietnam=E2=80=94have also based their economic behav= ior on the insurance the United States previously provided. As a result, they came to play leading roles in U.S. supply chains and technology investment. Their governments and citizens poured money into the U.S. economy through foreign direct investment, purchases of Treasury bonds, and participation in the U.S. stock market. They agreed to join U.S. sanctions and export-control regimes, albeit less consistently, and directly supported the U.S. military. Trump has now subjected these countries to massive tariffs and tariff threats as well as bilateral requests for specific accommodations and side payments, such as demands that they purchase more U.S. natural gas or transfer industrial production to the United States. These economic players have more choice in how much effort they want to devote toward maintaining ties with the United States. And they are shifting their behavior more rapidly, strengthening economic linkages with one another and with China. ASEAN and the EU both had greater commercial ties to China than to the United States to begin with; that gap is widening, not only because the Chinese economy is growing but also because the United States is limiting its exports to and imports from China and its investment there. Over the past decade, the share of Chinese inputs into European and Southeast Asian industrial supply chains rose steeply as the United States=E2=80=99 share f= ell. It is not sustainable for the EU, and certainly not for ASEAN, to economically isolate China, and the gains from doing business with China will only increase as the United States leaves the scene. Commerce with China does not substitute for the insurance that the United States previously provided. But as the Trump regime makes the United States less competitive as a site for production and limits access to the U.S. market (shrinking that market=E2=80=99s growth potential), an expansion of trade a= nd investment with China can provide these blocs with a partial offset. As sizable economic entities in their own right, Asian and European countries have a far greater ability to pursue a different path, even though they will be spending more to self-insure than they used to. For instance, orders for Eurofighter jets as an alternative to U.S. combat aircraft have surged among NATO members such as Spain and Turkey. And the Indonesian government, in the spring of 2025, struck new economic deals with China, including an approximately $3 billion =E2=80=9Ctwin=E2=80=9D industrial par= k project that will link Central Java with Fujian Province. The project is expected to create thousands of jobs in Indonesia at a moment when nothing of that kind is on offer from the United States. Indonesia=E2=80=99s central bank and th= e People=E2=80=99s Bank of China have also agreed to promote trade in local currencies, and the two countries have vowed to strengthen their maritime cooperation; both deals surprised U.S. policymakers. [image: A display of stock market indices, S=C3=A3o Paulo, Brazil, July 202= 5] A display of stock market indices, S=C3=A3o Paulo, Brazil, July 2025 Alexandr= e Meneghini / Reuters Additionally (and crucially), Trump=E2=80=99s economic policy is reinforcin= g and accelerating the separation of two clear tiers of emerging markets in terms of their resilience to macroeconomic shocks. During the 1998=E2=80=9399 and= 2008=E2=80=939 financial crises, even the largest emerging economies=E2=80=94Brazil, India= , Indonesia, and Turkey=E2=80=94suffered badly. But they have become substant= ially more resilient, thanks to domestic reforms as well as new export and investment opportunities offered by richer countries (including China). During the COVID-19 pandemic and the U.S. Federal Reserve=E2=80=99s subsequ= ent enormous interest-rate increase, their economies did not suffer much financial damage. The largest emerging markets remained able to adjust their fiscal and monetary policies with some autonomy. Dozens of lower- and middle-income economies, by contrast, accumulated debt at a devastating pace. Since 2000, the decline in real income in these countries has more than offset the gains they had made in the previous decade. Trump=E2=80=99s new approach has further closed off their economic opportunities, and the way he has encouraged the larger emerging markets, particularly India, to adopt their own homeland-first policies only deepens poorer economies=E2=80=99 isolation. Capital seeks opportunity, but also security. The U.S. withdrawal of economic insurance, and Trump=E2=80=99s hard turn against foreign aid and development, will reinforce investors=E2=80=99 preference for relatively st= able locales. Thus, the poorest countries in Central America, Central and South Asia, and Africa are likely to become stuck in the economic lowlands with little means of exit while the larger, geopolitically significant emerging markets will, relatively speaking, become more attractive. Some of the poorest countries will make deals=E2=80=94for instance, by providing the Un= ited States with preferred access to their resources or serving as destinations for U.S. deportees. That response, however, cannot yield the kind of sustainable growth that many emerging economies enjoyed under the old U.S. insurance regime. SOLID AND LIQUID Perhaps the most important change the United States has made to its insurance scheme, however, is to reduce the dollar=E2=80=99s liquidity=E2= =80=94which diminishes the safety of the portfolios of savers worldwide. U.S. assets that were previously viewed as low-to-no-risk can no longer be considered entirely safe. This will have far-reaching ramifications for the global availability and flow of capital. During Trump=E2=80=99s 2024 election campaign and since he took office, top officials in his administration have repeatedly threatened to trap investors in U.S. Treasuries by, for example, forcing countries and institutions to swap their current holdings for longer-term or perpetual debt, punishing governments that promote the use of currencies other than the dollar, and taxing foreign investors at higher rates than domestic ones. Trump administration officials have not yet followed through. But these threats, combined with repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve=E2=80= =99s independence and promises to depreciate the dollar, are steadily undermining the perceived stability of the dollar and Treasury bonds. The underlying problem is that the world has more savings than it has safe places to stow them. Cash-rich surplus economies=E2=80=94places such as Chi= na, Germany, and Saudi Arabia, as well as smaller but striking examples such as Norway, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates=E2=80=94cannot keep all the= ir savings at home for three reasons. First, their savers would lack diversification if a country-specific shock hits their economy. Second, forcing huge amounts of savings into these mostly small markets would distort asset prices, leading to bubbles, financial instability, and abrupt shifts in employment patterns. And third, such countries do not issue enough public debt, at least not enough that foreigners want to hold. This is why, for decades, the uniquely deep, broad, and apparently safe U.S. Treasuries market=E2=80=94and dollar-denominated assets in general=E2=80=94= have absorbed the lion=E2=80=99s share of the world=E2=80=99s excess savings. U.S. assets that were once viewed as low-to-no-risk are no longer safe. Among the many benefits that Treasury bonds and other U.S. public markets offered to global investors, the most attractive was ample liquidity. Investors could convert assets they had in these markets into cash with few or no delays or costs. The valuation of their investments remained stable, and unlike in smaller markets, even a very large transaction would not swing prices. Investors did not have to worry that their counterparties would not accept their form of payment. With the exception of known criminals and entities targeted by sanctions, everyone in the world could rely on both the stability and flexibility of dollar-denominated investments=E2=80=94which in turn lowered the risk that businesses would fa= ce cash-flow crunches or miss opportunities. The dollar=E2=80=99s dominance, which went well beyond what the United Stat= es=E2=80=99 GDP or share of global trade would have justified, constituted another win-win type of insurance. The United States collected premiums in the form of lower interest on its debt and steadier exchange rates. American and foreign asset holders both benefited. Even when a financial or geopolitical shock originated in the United States, investors assumed that the U.S. economy would remain safer than others. When U.S. markets directly triggered a worldwide recession in 2008, interest rates and the dollar fell and then rose together as capital from abroad flowed into the U.S. market. Now the dollar appears to be behaving the way that most currencies do, which is to move in the opposite direction to interest rates. Until April of this year, the dollar closely tracked the day-to-day movements of the U.S. ten-year Treasury interest rate. Ever since the administration=E2=80= =99s April 2 tariff announcements, the correlation between U.S. interest rates and the dollar has reversed, indicating that something other than day-to-day economic news is driving the dollar down. [image: image.png] Multiple times this year, the Trump administration has announced a surprise policy change that provoked economic volatility: on April 2, the =E2=80=9CLiberation Day=E2=80=9D tariffs; in May, the =E2=80=9COne Big Beau= tiful Bill=E2=80=9D spending package; and, over the course of June, several threats to impose additional tariffs, as well as the U.S. bombing of Iran. In response to each of these events, the dollar fell while U.S. long-term interest rates rose, indicating a capital outflow in response to turmoil. Similarly, throughout modern history, tariff impositions have led to currency appreciations, including during Trump=E2=80=99s first term. This y= ear, however, the dollar has depreciated as the president has imposed tariffs. This major break with the historical pattern suggests that global concerns about the instability of U.S. policy have begun to outweigh the usual flight to safety that pushes up the dollar. The Trump administration=E2=80=99s hostile and unpredictable approach towar= d U.S.-led military alliances has further eroded support for the dollar. Washington=E2=80=99s new stance heightens the risk that it will sanction ev= en allied foreign investors. And as the American-led alliances have less power to reassure, other governments are boosting their defense spending, which increases the relative attractiveness of their currencies. EU bond markets, for instance, are becoming bigger and deeper as debt-financed defense spending surges in northern and eastern Europe. The euro offers more benefit to Ukraine, the Balkan States, and some Middle Eastern and North African countries that aim to reduce their vulnerability to U.S. whims by seeking euro-denominated arms, trade, investment, loans, and development aid. DEBT COLLECTORS European and other markets, however, cannot fully replicate the advantages that dollar-denominated assets formerly conferred. The world=E2=80=99s inve= stors, including American ones, will simply have fewer safe places to put their savings as U.S. assets become less liquid. This increased insecurity will drive up long-term average interest rates on U.S. government debt just when a lot more debt is being issued. All borrowers, private and sovereign, that participate in the U.S. financial system will feel the pinch of that interest-rate rise because all loans are priced off Treasury rates in some sense. Some savers, particularly Chinese ones, may seek to move assets out of U.S. markets. But that flight will put deflationary pressure on their home economies as their overall returns shrink and excess savings become bottled up in markets that already had a more limited set of investment opportunities. Meanwhile, the value of alternative assets=E2=80=94nondollar currencies, commodities traditionally treated as stores of value such as gold and timber, and newer cryptocurrency products=E2=80=94will surge. Beca= use these assets are less liquid, these upswings will almost certainly lead to periodic financial crashes and greatly complicate the challenges governments face in using monetary policy to stabilize economies. This will be a loss for the world with no net gain for the U.S. economy. Just as persistent droughts motivate people to zealously guard access to their water supplies, a lack of liquidity in global markets encourages governments to ensure that their debt is funded at home rather than leaving it up to the market. These measures typically take the form of what is called financial repression: forcing financial institutions (and ultimately, households) to hold more public debt than they otherwise would, through some combination of regulations, capital outflow controls, and the forced allocation of newly issued debt. Financial repression tends to lower returns for savers and drives up their vulnerability to de facto expropriation. Ultimately, the diminished availability of financing makes it harder for privately owned businesses as well as governments to ride out temporary downturns before exhausting their funding. They will have to accumulate reserves to cover dollar obligations (such as outstanding or interbank loans) in case of financial distress. If countries have to self-insure, both governments and businesses will become more risk-averse and have less available to invest, especially abroad, reinforcing the fragmentation of the world=E2=80=99s economy. LOSE-LOSE Without the insurance that the United States provided, new links between economies and pathways for investment will emerge. But they will be costlier to build and maintain, less broadly accessible, and less dependable. Countries will undoubtedly seek to self-insure, but those efforts will inherently be more costly and less effective than when risk was pooled under a single insurer. Navigating the world=E2=80=99s economy w= as never a smooth road. But after the earthquake of Trump=E2=80=99s economic regime = change, the terrain has become much rougher. In the end, money spent on insurance is money that cannot be spent on other things. Governments, institutions, and companies will have to pay simply to hedge against bad outcomes instead of funding good ones. Opportunities for investment and consumer choices will narrow. Growth in productivity (and therefore growth in real incomes) will slow as commercial competition, innovation, and global cooperation to create new infrastructure contract. Many of the poorest emerging markets will lose coverage against threats altogether=E2=80=94at the very moment when the risks they face are sharply increasing. This means a worse world for almost everyone. Amid this change, however, China=E2=80=99s immediate economic environment will be the least altered de= spite Trump=E2=80=99s previous claims that he would design his economic policies = to target Beijing most aggressively. China is relatively well positioned to attempt to self-insure after a U.S. withdrawal. More than any other major economy, it had already begun to reduce its reliance on the United States for exports, imports, investment, and technology. Whether China will be able to capture new external opportunities in the United States=E2=80=99 re= treat will depend on whether it can overcome other countries=E2=80=99 skepticism = about its reliability as an insurer. Will it merely seek to run the same kind of protection racket as the United States=E2=80=94or a worse one? It is a tragic and destructive irony that, in the name of national security, the United States is now injuring the allies that have contributed the most to its economic well-being while leaving China far less disadvantaged. That is why Trump officials=E2=80=99 belief that these = close allies will simply accept the =E2=80=9Crebalancing=E2=80=9D imposed on them= is profoundly mistaken. These governments will be pragmatic, but that pragmatism will take a very different form than the Trump administration desires. For decades, they gave Washington the benefit of the doubt. Now they are losing their illusions and will offer less to the United States, not more. Trump=E2=80=99s actions will alter China=E2=80=99s immediate economic envir= onment the least. There will be opportunities in this new landscape. But they will involve the U.S. economy less and less. The most promising possibility is that European and Asian countries, excluding China, will join to create a new space of relative stability. The EU and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, an alliance composed of mostly Indo-Pacific states, are already exploring new forms of cooperation. In June, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, described these negotiations as an effort at =E2=80=9Credesigning=E2=80=9D = the World Trade Organization to =E2=80=9Cshow the world that free trade with a large number= of countries is possible on a rules-based foundation.=E2=80=9D These economies= could also do more to guarantee mutual investment rights, create binding mechanisms for settling trade disputes, and pool their liquidity to respond to financial shocks. They could seek to maintain the function and influence of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization, protecting these institutions from paralysis as China or the United States seek to veto necessary initiatives. If they want to sustain some fraction of the global economy=E2=80=99s prior openness and stability, however, these countries will have to build blocs with a selective membership rather than pursue a strictly multilateral approach. This would be a poor substitute for the system over which the United States had presided. But it would be much better than simply accepting the economy that the Trump administration is now creating. As for the United States itself, no matter how many bilateral trade deals it brokers, no matter how many economies appear=E2=80=94at first=E2=80=94to= align with Washington at a high cost, the country will find itself increasingly bypassed in commerce and technology and less able to influence other countries=E2=80=99 investment and security decisions. The U.S. supply chain= s that the Trump administration claims to want to secure will become less reliable=E2=80=94inherently costlier, less diversified in their sourcing, a= nd subject to more risk from U.S.-specific shocks. Leaving behind much of the developing world will not only increase migrant flows and trigger public health crises; it will prevent the United States from tapping potential market opportunities. The Trump administration=E2=80=99s moves to drive awa= y foreign investment will erode U.S. living standards and the U.S. military= =E2=80=99s capacity. European, Asian, and even Brazilian and Turkish brands will likely gain market share at American companies=E2=80=99 expense, while tech= nical standards for products such as automobiles and financial services technologies will increasingly diverge from U.S. norms. Many of these phenomena will be self-reinforcing, making them hard to reverse even after Trump leaves the White House. As the song goes, you don=E2=80=99t know what you=E2=80=99ve got till it=E2= =80=99s gone. The Trump administration has paved paradise and put up a casino, with what will soon be an empty parking lot. --000000000000276128063d6bbfee Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
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The= New Economic Geography

Who Profits in a Post-American World?

Adam S. Posen

= September/October 2025 P= ublished on August 19, 2025
3D"image.png" = Ben Jones

ADAM S. POSEN is Presi= dent of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The post-American world economy has arrived. U.S. President Donald Trump=E2=80= =99s=20 radical shift in economic approach has already begun to change norms,=20 behaviors, and institutions globally. Like a major earthquake, it has=20 given rise to new features in the landscape and rendered many existing=20 economic structures unusable. This event was a political choice, not an=20 inevitable natural disaster. But the changes that it is driving are here to stay. No guardrails will automatically restore the previous status=20 quo.

To understand these changes, many analysts and po= liticians=20 focus on the degree to which supply chains and trade in manufactured=20 goods are shifting between the United States and China. But that focus is too narrow. Asking whether the United=20 States or China will remain central to the world=E2=80=99s economy=E2=80=94= or looking=20 primarily at trade balances=E2=80=94yields a dramatic underestimate of the = scope and impact of Trump=E2=80=99s changed approach and how comprehensively the= =20 prior U.S. framework undergirded the economic decisions made by almost=20 every state, financial institution, and company worldwide.

In essence= , the global public goods that the United States provided after the end of = World War II=E2=80=94among others, the ability to securely navigate the air and seas, the=20 presumption that property is safe from expropriation, rules for=20 international trade, and stable dollar assets in which to transact=20 business and store money=E2=80=94can be thought of, in economic terms, as f= orms=20 of insurance. The United States collected premiums from the countries=20 that participated in the system it led in a variety of ways, including=20 through its ability to set rules that made the U.S. economy the most=20 attractive one to investors. In return, the societies that bought into=20 the system were freed to expend much less effort on securing their=20 economies against uncertainty, enabling them to pursue the commerce that helped them flourish.

Some pressures had been building within=20 this system before Trump=E2=80=99s ascent. But particularly in his second t= erm,=20 Trump has switched the United States=E2=80=99 role from global insurer to= =20 extractor of profit. Instead of the insurer securing its clients against external threats, under the new regime, the threat against which=20 insurance is sold comes as much from the insurer as from the global=20 environment. The Trump administration promises to spare clients from its own assaults for a higher price than before. Trump has threatened to block access to American markets on a=20 broad scale; made the protections that come with military alliances=20 explicitly dependent on the purchase of U.S. weapons, energy, and=20 industrial products; required foreigners who want to operate businesses=20 in the United States to make side payments to his personal priorities;=20 and pressured Mexico, Vietnam, and other countries to drop Chinese=20 industrial inputs or investment by Chinese companies. These acts are on a scale unprecedented in modern U.S. governance.

The United States=E2=80=99 withdrawal of its former insurance will fundamental= ly=20 change the behavior of the country=E2=80=99s clients and its clients=E2=80= =99=20 clients=E2=80=94and not in the ways that Trump hopes. China, the country whose behavior most U.S. officials want to change, will=20 likely be the least affected, while the United States=E2=80=99 closest alli= es=20 will be the most damaged. As other U.S. partners watch these reliant=20 allies suffer, they will seek to self-insure instead, at great cost to=20 them. Assets will become harder to save and investment abroad less=20 appealing. As their exposure to global economic and security risks=20 rises, governments will find that both foreign diversification and=20 macroeconomic policy have become less effective tools for stabilizing=20 their economies.

Some argue that Trump=E2=80=99s new posture will sim= ply=20 drive a potentially desirable realignment. In this view, although his=20 program requires both governments and businesses to pay more for less,=20 the world will ultimately accept its new normal, to the United States=E2=80= =99=20 benefit. This is a delusion. In the world Trump=E2=80=99s program creates,= =20 everyone will suffer=E2=80=94not least the United States.

GANGSTER= =E2=80=99S PARADISE

Imagine that you were fortunate enough to inherit a piece of land by the ocean. It always offered great views and beach access. But you only invested=20 in building a grand house on the lot when a well-regulated, reliable=20 company came along that offered sufficient home insurance. You had to=20 pay a pretty penny for it, of course. But that company=E2=80=99s coverage a= lso=20 enabled the owners of nearby lots to build, inspiring the creation of a=20 rewarding neighborhood with roads, water, cell towers, rising home=20 values=E2=80=94and most crucially, the guarantee that if you continued to p= ay=20 premiums insuring you against floods and hurricanes, any further=20 investments you made in your property would be at low risk.

In=20 essence, this is the economic situation in which much of the world=20 operated for nearly 80 years. The United States recouped enormous=20 benefits by acting as the world=E2=80=99s dominant insurance provider after= =20 World War II. By assuming this role, it also maintained some control=20 over other countries=E2=80=99 economic and security policies without having= to=20 resort to harsh threats. In return, countries that participated in the=20 system were shielded from various forms of risk. Washington=E2=80=99s milit= ary=20 supremacy and the mechanisms of international order that it enforced=20 allowed national borders to remain mostly settled; most economies could=20 thrive without the threat of conquest. Between 1980 and 2020, incomes=20 converged overall both between and within the states that took part.

= Economic injustices persisted; at times, they were imposed by the United States. But broadly, this global insurance regime was a win-win for nearly=20 everyone with regard to economic stability, innovation, and growth.=20 Violence and warfare declined overall, and poorer states were better=20 able to integrate their economies with higher-income markets that opened up to trade. This security may have rested on a communal illusion about how little military investment and action it would take to keep=20 geopolitics stable. But that regime persisted for decades, in part=20 because U.S. policymakers in both parties valued the system and in part=20 because enough outside actors believed in it and benefited from it.

N= ow that sense of safety is gone. Imagine, again, your hypothetical=20 beachfront house. Some threats to your property have started to=20 increase: sea levels are rising, and hurricanes are becoming deadlier.=20 Instead of simply raising your premium, however, your insurer=E2=80=94which= you=20 had long trusted and dutifully paid=E2=80=94suddenly begins to refuse your= =20 claims for damage unless you pay double your official rate and slip the=20 insurer something extra under the table, too. Even if you do pay what is asked, the insurer then writes to say that it is tripling the price of=20 your general premium for less comprehensive coverage. Alternative=20 insurers are not available. Meanwhile, your taxes begin to rise, and=20 your day-to-day public services become less reliable because of the=20 demands that disaster response is placing on your community.

The United States profited handsomely from being an insurance provid= er.

Trump is not the only actor responsible for the breakdown of the economic=20 regime that prevailed for 80 years. The list of contributing factors=E2=80= =94the underlying threats not posed by your home insurer, in the beach house=20 analogy=E2=80=94is long. The rise of China, and the United States=E2=80=99 = response,=20 played a part. So, too, did climate change, the advance of information=20 technology, and the U.S. electorate=E2=80=99s understandable loss of trust = in=20 incumbent elites after the country=E2=80=99s interventions in Afghanistan a= nd=20 Iraq, the 2008=E2=80=939 global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic= .

But the Trump administration=E2=80=99s policies constitute a clear turning poi= nt.=20 The president=E2=80=99s supporters sometimes portray these as a mere repric= ing=20 of risk: the free world=E2=80=99s insurer is adjusting its fees and service= s to=20 fit new realities and correct a previous tendency to underprice its=20 offerings. This depiction is mistaken. The Trump administration has made clear that it wants the United States to operate a completely different kind of scheme, in which it weaponizes and maintains uncertainty in=20 order to extract as much as it can for as little as possible in return.

=

Trump and his advisers would argue that this is simple reciprocity or fair=20 treatment for countries that, in their view, exploited the United States for decades. Yet those countries never extracted anything that remotely matched what the United States received: dirt cheap long-term loans to=20 the U.S. government; disproportionately massive foreign investment in=20 American corporations and the U.S. workforce; a near-global adherence to U.S. technical and legal standards that advantaged U.S.-based=20 producers; reliance on the U.S. financial system for the vast majority=20 of global transactions and reserves; compliance with U.S. initiatives on sanctions; payments for garrisoning American troops; widespread=20 dependence on the U.S. defense industry; and best of all, a sustained=20 rise in the American standard of living. Not only did the United States=20 profit handsomely from being an insurance provider that others valued,=20 but its allies also ceded many important security-related decisions to=20 Washington.

The great thing about providing insurance is that for=20 years at a time, you don=E2=80=99t have to do or pay anything to collect yo= ur=20 premiums. That is even truer for the form of economic insurance the=20 United States provided globally than it is for a home insurance=20 provider, because the very existence of the U.S. security guarantees=20 reduced the real-world threats to policyholders. This reduced the claims paid out. But the Trump administration is jettisoning this profitable=20 and steady business model in favor of one that reinforces the opposite=20 cycle. Ever-fewer clients will become more at risk. Already, businesses, governments, and investors are fundamentally changing their practices=20 to try to self-insure instead.

FIGHT OR FLIGHT

In truth,=20 Trump=E2=80=99s approach will do the greatest damage to the economies that = are=20 most closely tied to the U.S. economy and took the previous rules of the game most for granted: Canada, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and the=20 United Kingdom. Take Japan: it had bet on the United States long term,=20 investing substantially in U.S.-located production for over 45 years and transferring its technological and managerial innovations along the=20 way. It has placed a larger share of its people=E2=80=99s savings in U.S.= =20 Treasuries for longer than any other economy. Japan agreed to serve as=20 the United States=E2=80=99 floating aircraft carrier on the frontline with= =20 China, and it garrisons U.S. troops in Okinawa despite growing domestic=20 opposition. Japan supported the first Trump administration in the G-7=20 and the G-20, followed the Biden administration in adopting parallel=20 sanctions against Russia after Russia=E2=80=99s invasion of Ukraine, and, s= ince=20 2013, has increased its military spending substantially in line with=20 U.S. policy priorities.

Until this year, what Japan got in return=20 was reliable platinum-tier coverage. Japanese investors and businesses=20 were able to take it for granted that they could sell products=20 competitively in the U.S. market, get their savings in and out of U.S.=20 Treasury bonds and other dollar-denominated assets as needed, and safely invest in production in the United States. Japan=E2=80=99s economic strate= gy=20 heading into Trump=E2=80=99s second term was based on the assumption that t= his=20 coverage would continue, if at a higher price: in 2023 and 2024,=20 Japanese companies announced investment plans that emphasized their=20 readiness to put even more capital into U.S. industries, including=20 uncompetitive ones such as steel, and forgo some market share in China=20 to coordinate with the United States.

The trade deal announced in mid= -July between the United States and Japan has increased the price tag for Japan well beyond that and diminished=20 Japan=E2=80=99s coverage. The 15 percent tariffs imposed on the country are= ten=20 times what they had been and affect autos and auto parts, steel, and=20 other major Japanese industries. Japan committed to creating a fund that invests an additional 14 percent of the country=E2=80=99s GDP into the Uni= ted=20 States=E2=80=94its monies spent at Trump=E2=80=99s personal discretion=E2= =80=94that will cede a=20 share of any profits to the United States. This constitutes a huge=20 downgrade in Japanese savers=E2=80=99 expected returns and control compared= with their prior private-sector investments, which were not subjected to=20 such arbitrary U.S. government oversight. Explicit provisions requiring=20 Japan to buy U.S. aircraft, rice, and other agricultural products, as=20 well as support Alaskan natural gas extraction, expose the country to=20 new risks. Even if Japan delivers on the agreement, it will remain=20 vulnerable to Trump=E2=80=99s potential decisions to unilaterally raise its= =20 premium and reduce its coverage even further. Meanwhile, Washington=E2=80= =99s=20 recent accommodations to China on the semiconductor trade further=20 diminish the benefits for Japan of pursuing an alliance-based economic=20 path.

U.S. allies will not accept a =E2=80=9Crebalanci= ng=E2=80=9D imposed on them.

The Trump administration expected that its key allies would simply pay any=20 price for U.S. protection. So far, Japan, Mexico, the Philippines, and=20 the United Kingdom have followed an approach closest to the one that the Trump administration anticipated. In the near term, these countries=20 have decided that their fates must lie with the United States, whatever=20 the cost. But Trump underestimated the degree to which allies=E2=80=99 clos= eness to the United States would lead them to register Washington=E2=80=99s new= =20 stance as a shocking betrayal. The popularity of the United States has=20 declined sharply: in the Pew Research Center=E2=80=99s spring 2025 survey o= n=20 attitudes toward the United States, the proportion of Japanese citizens=20 who viewed the country favorably had slid by 15 percentage points from a year earlier; the country=E2=80=99s favorability rating had plummeted by 2= 0=20 points among Canadians and 32 points among Mexicans. This large and=20 negative shift reflects the sense of disappointment that only those=20 truly invested in a relationship can feel.

National security=20 concerns, existing ties, and=E2=80=94in the case of Canada and=20 Mexico=E2=80=94geographical proximity will limit the degree to which the Un= ited=20 States=E2=80=99 closest allies can undo their economic dependence. Yet they= have more room to do so than advocates of Trump=E2=80=99s economic approach=20 appreciate. Canada has resisted Trump=E2=80=99s attempts to unilaterally re= vise=20 the 2020 U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement and impose asymmetrically=20 high tariffs on Canadian goods. Prime Minister Mark Carney and all of=20 Canada=E2=80=99s provincial premiers announced in July that, to reduce the= =20 country=E2=80=99s dependence on the United States, they had agreed to limit= =20 their concessions to Trump=E2=80=99s escalating demands and actively pursue= =20 increased internal integration. Carney also vowed to expand trade with=20 the EU and other entities.

Other close U.S. allies such as=20 Australia and South Korea will probably decide that in the near term,=20 they have no choice but to throw in their lot with the United States.=20 Over time, however, allies may well tire of the declining benefits that=20 appeasement yields and reorient their investments. Like Canada, they=20 will try to expand their ties with China, the EU, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). But this reorientation will yield a=20 worse outcome for all these economies. They relied economically on the=20 United States for good reason; if substitute markets, investments, and=20 products were just as valuable, they would have chosen those in the=20 first place. In the absence of fairly priced U.S. insurance, the value=20 proposition changes.

LEFT BEHIND

The seismic Trump shock=20 has hit other major economic land masses, too. ASEAN and the EU were=20 always less fully aligned with the United States on economic and=20 security policy than the five most integrated allies were. The two blocs are diverse, with a variety of commercial specializations, advantages,=20 and political orientations within their memberships. Yet they and their=20 member states=E2=80=94particularly Germany, France, the Netherlands, Singap= ore,=20 Sweden, and Vietnam=E2=80=94have also based their economic behavior on the= =20 insurance the United States previously provided. As a result, they came=20 to play leading roles in U.S. supply chains and technology investment.=20 Their governments and citizens poured money into the U.S. economy=20 through foreign direct investment, purchases of Treasury bonds, and=20 participation in the U.S. stock market. They agreed to join U.S.=20 sanctions and export-control regimes, albeit less consistently, and=20 directly supported the U.S. military.

Trump has now subjected=20 these countries to massive tariffs and tariff threats as well as=20 bilateral requests for specific accommodations and side payments, such=20 as demands that they purchase more U.S. natural gas or transfer=20 industrial production to the United States. These economic players have=20 more choice in how much effort they want to devote toward maintaining=20 ties with the United States. And they are shifting their behavior more=20 rapidly, strengthening economic linkages with one another and with=20 China. ASEAN and the EU both had greater commercial ties to China than=20 to the United States to begin with; that gap is widening, not only=20 because the Chinese economy is growing but also because the United=20 States is limiting its exports to and imports from China and its=20 investment there. Over the past decade, the share of Chinese inputs into European and Southeast Asian industrial supply chains rose steeply as=20 the United States=E2=80=99 share fell.

It is not sustainable for the = EU,=20 and certainly not for ASEAN, to economically isolate China, and the=20 gains from doing business with China will only increase as the United=20 States leaves the scene. Commerce with China does not substitute for the insurance that the United States previously provided. But as the Trump=20 regime makes the United States less competitive as a site for production and limits access to the U.S. market (shrinking that market=E2=80=99s grow= th=20 potential), an expansion of trade and investment with China can provide=20 these blocs with a partial offset. As sizable economic entities in their own right, Asian and European countries have a far greater ability to=20 pursue a different path, even though they will be spending more to=20 self-insure than they used to. For instance, orders for Eurofighter jets as an alternative to U.S. combat aircraft have surged among NATO=20 members such as Spain and Turkey. And the Indonesian government, in the=20 spring of 2025, struck new economic deals with China, including an=20 approximately $3 billion =E2=80=9Ctwin=E2=80=9D industrial park project tha= t will link=20 Central Java with Fujian Province. The project is expected to create=20 thousands of jobs in Indonesia at a moment when nothing of that kind is=20 on offer from the United States. Indonesia=E2=80=99s central bank and the= =20 People=E2=80=99s Bank of China have also agreed to promote trade in local= =20 currencies, and the two countries have vowed to strengthen their=20 maritime cooperation; both deals surprised U.S. policymakers.

3D"A A display of stock market indices, S= =C3=A3o Paulo, Brazil, July 2025 Alexandre Meneghini / Reuters

Addit= ionally (and crucially), Trump=E2=80=99s economic policy is reinforcing and=20 accelerating the separation of two clear tiers of emerging markets in=20 terms of their resilience to macroeconomic shocks. During the 1998=E2=80=93= 99=20 and 2008=E2=80=939 financial crises, even the largest emerging economies=E2= =80=94Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey=E2=80=94suffered badly. But they have become= =20 substantially more resilient, thanks to domestic reforms as well as new=20 export and investment opportunities offered by richer countries=20 (including China). During the COVID-19 pandemic and the U.S. Federal=20 Reserve=E2=80=99s subsequent enormous interest-rate increase, their economi= es=20 did not suffer much financial damage. The largest emerging markets=20 remained able to adjust their fiscal and monetary policies with some=20 autonomy.

Dozens of lower- and middle-income economies, by=20 contrast, accumulated debt at a devastating pace. Since 2000, the=20 decline in real income in these countries has more than offset the gains they had made in the previous decade. Trump=E2=80=99s new approach has fur= ther=20 closed off their economic opportunities, and the way he has encouraged=20 the larger emerging markets, particularly India, to adopt their own=20 homeland-first policies only deepens poorer economies=E2=80=99 isolation.

Capital seeks opportunity, but also security. The U.S. withdrawal of economic=20 insurance, and Trump=E2=80=99s hard turn against foreign aid and developmen= t,=20 will reinforce investors=E2=80=99 preference for relatively stable locales.= =20 Thus, the poorest countries in Central America, Central and South Asia,=20 and Africa are likely to become stuck in the economic lowlands with=20 little means of exit while the larger, geopolitically significant=20 emerging markets will, relatively speaking, become more attractive. Some of the poorest countries will make deals=E2=80=94for instance, by providin= g the United States with preferred access to their resources or serving as=20 destinations for U.S. deportees. That response, however, cannot yield=20 the kind of sustainable growth that many emerging economies enjoyed=20 under the old U.S. insurance regime.

SOLID AND LIQUID

Perhaps the most important change the United States has made to its insurance=20 scheme, however, is to reduce the dollar=E2=80=99s liquidity=E2=80=94which = diminishes=20 the safety of the portfolios of savers worldwide. U.S. assets that were=20 previously viewed as low-to-no-risk can no longer be considered entirely safe. This will have far-reaching ramifications for the global=20 availability and flow of capital.

During Trump=E2=80=99s 2024 electio= n=20 campaign and since he took office, top officials in his administration=20 have repeatedly threatened to trap investors in U.S. Treasuries by, for=20 example, forcing countries and institutions to swap their current=20 holdings for longer-term or perpetual debt, punishing governments that=20 promote the use of currencies other than the dollar, and taxing foreign=20 investors at higher rates than domestic ones. Trump administration=20 officials have not yet followed through. But these threats, combined=20 with repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve=E2=80=99s independence and pro= mises to depreciate the dollar, are steadily undermining the perceived=20 stability of the dollar and Treasury bonds.

The underlying problem is that the world has more savings than it has safe places to stow=20 them. Cash-rich surplus economies=E2=80=94places such as China, Germany, an= d=20 Saudi Arabia, as well as smaller but striking examples such as Norway,=20 Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates=E2=80=94cannot keep all their savin= gs at home for three reasons. First, their savers would lack diversification=20 if a country-specific shock hits their economy. Second, forcing huge=20 amounts of savings into these mostly small markets would distort asset=20 prices, leading to bubbles, financial instability, and abrupt shifts in=20 employment patterns. And third, such countries do not issue enough=20 public debt, at least not enough that foreigners want to hold. This is=20 why, for decades, the uniquely deep, broad, and apparently safe U.S.=20 Treasuries market=E2=80=94and dollar-denominated assets in general=E2=80=94= have absorbed the lion=E2=80=99s share of the world=E2=80=99s excess savings.

=
U.S. assets that were once viewed as low-to-no-risk are no longe= r safe.

Among the many benefits that Treasury bonds and other U.S. public markets=20 offered to global investors, the most attractive was ample liquidity.=20 Investors could convert assets they had in these markets into cash with=20 few or no delays or costs. The valuation of their investments remained=20 stable, and unlike in smaller markets, even a very large transaction=20 would not swing prices. Investors did not have to worry that their=20 counterparties would not accept their form of payment. With the=20 exception of known criminals and entities targeted by sanctions,=20 everyone in the world could rely on both the stability and flexibility=20 of dollar-denominated investments=E2=80=94which in turn lowered the risk th= at=20 businesses would face cash-flow crunches or miss opportunities.

The dollar=E2=80=99s dominance, which went well beyond what the United States= =E2=80=99 GDP=20 or share of global trade would have justified, constituted another=20 win-win type of insurance. The United States collected premiums in the=20 form of lower interest on its debt and steadier exchange rates. American and foreign asset holders both benefited. Even when a financial or=20 geopolitical shock originated in the United States, investors assumed=20 that the U.S. economy would remain safer than others. When U.S. markets=20 directly triggered a worldwide recession in 2008, interest rates and the dollar fell and then rose together as capital from abroad flowed into=20 the U.S. market.

Now the dollar appears to be behaving the way=20 that most currencies do, which is to move in the opposite direction to=20 interest rates. Until April of this year, the dollar closely tracked the day-to-day movements of the U.S. ten-year Treasury interest rate. Ever=20 since the administration=E2=80=99s April 2 tariff announcements, the correl= ation between U.S. interest rates and the dollar has reversed, indicating=20 that something other than day-to-day economic news is driving the dollar down.

3D"image.png"

Multiple times this year, the Trump administration has announced a surprise=20 policy change that provoked economic volatility: on April 2, the=20 =E2=80=9CLiberation Day=E2=80=9D tariffs; in May, the =E2=80=9COne Big Beau= tiful Bill=E2=80=9D spending=20 package; and, over the course of June, several threats to impose=20 additional tariffs, as well as the U.S. bombing of Iran. In response to=20 each of these events, the dollar fell while U.S. long-term interest=20 rates rose, indicating a capital outflow in response to turmoil.

Simi= larly, throughout modern history, tariff impositions have led to currency=20 appreciations, including during Trump=E2=80=99s first term. This year, howe= ver,=20 the dollar has depreciated as the president has imposed tariffs. This=20 major break with the historical pattern suggests that global concerns=20 about the instability of U.S. policy have begun to outweigh the usual=20 flight to safety that pushes up the dollar.

The Trump=20 administration=E2=80=99s hostile and unpredictable approach toward U.S.-led= =20 military alliances has further eroded support for the dollar.=20 Washington=E2=80=99s new stance heightens the risk that it will sanction ev= en=20 allied foreign investors. And as the American-led alliances have less=20 power to reassure, other governments are boosting their defense=20 spending, which increases the relative attractiveness of their=20 currencies. EU bond markets, for instance, are becoming bigger and=20 deeper as debt-financed defense spending surges in northern and eastern=20 Europe. The euro offers more benefit to Ukraine, the Balkan States, and=20 some Middle Eastern and North African countries that aim to reduce their vulnerability to U.S. whims by seeking euro-denominated arms, trade,=20 investment, loans, and development aid.

DEBT COLLECTORS

Europ= ean and other markets, however, cannot fully replicate the advantages that=20 dollar-denominated assets formerly conferred. The world=E2=80=99s investors= ,=20 including American ones, will simply have fewer safe places to put their savings as U.S. assets become less liquid. This increased insecurity=20 will drive up long-term average interest rates on U.S. government debt=20 just when a lot more debt is being issued. All borrowers, private and=20 sovereign, that participate in the U.S. financial system will feel the=20 pinch of that interest-rate rise because all loans are priced off=20 Treasury rates in some sense.

Some savers, particularly Chinese=20 ones, may seek to move assets out of U.S. markets. But that flight will=20 put deflationary pressure on their home economies as their overall=20 returns shrink and excess savings become bottled up in markets that=20 already had a more limited set of investment opportunities. Meanwhile,=20 the value of alternative assets=E2=80=94nondollar currencies, commodities= =20 traditionally treated as stores of value such as gold and timber, and=20 newer cryptocurrency products=E2=80=94will surge. Because these assets are = less=20 liquid, these upswings will almost certainly lead to periodic financial=20 crashes and greatly complicate the challenges governments face in using=20 monetary policy to stabilize economies. This will be a loss for the=20 world with no net gain for the U.S. economy.

Just as persistent=20 droughts motivate people to zealously guard access to their water=20 supplies, a lack of liquidity in global markets encourages governments=20 to ensure that their debt is funded at home rather than leaving it up to the market. These measures typically take the form of what is called=20 financial repression: forcing financial institutions (and ultimately,=20 households) to hold more public debt than they otherwise would, through=20 some combination of regulations, capital outflow controls, and the=20 forced allocation of newly issued debt. Financial repression tends to=20 lower returns for savers and drives up their vulnerability to de facto=20 expropriation.

Ultimately, the diminished availability of=20 financing makes it harder for privately owned businesses as well as=20 governments to ride out temporary downturns before exhausting their=20 funding. They will have to accumulate reserves to cover dollar=20 obligations (such as outstanding or interbank loans) in case of=20 financial distress. If countries have to self-insure, both governments=20 and businesses will become more risk-averse and have less available to=20 invest, especially abroad, reinforcing the fragmentation of the world=E2=80= =99s=20 economy.

LOSE-LOSE

Without the insurance that the United=20 States provided, new links between economies and pathways for investment will emerge. But they will be costlier to build and maintain, less=20 broadly accessible, and less dependable. Countries will undoubtedly seek to self-insure, but those efforts will inherently be more costly and=20 less effective than when risk was pooled under a single insurer.=20 Navigating the world=E2=80=99s economy was never a smooth road. But after t= he=20 earthquake of Trump=E2=80=99s economic regime change, the terrain has becom= e=20 much rougher.

In the end, money spent on insurance is money that=20 cannot be spent on other things. Governments, institutions, and=20 companies will have to pay simply to hedge against bad outcomes instead=20 of funding good ones. Opportunities for investment and consumer choices=20 will narrow. Growth in productivity (and therefore growth in real=20 incomes) will slow as commercial competition, innovation, and global=20 cooperation to create new infrastructure contract. Many of the poorest=20 emerging markets will lose coverage against threats altogether=E2=80=94at t= he=20 very moment when the risks they face are sharply increasing.

This=20 means a worse world for almost everyone. Amid this change, however,=20 China=E2=80=99s immediate economic environment will be the least altered de= spite Trump=E2=80=99s previous claims that he would design his economic policies= to=20 target Beijing most aggressively. China is relatively well positioned to attempt to self-insure after a U.S. withdrawal. More than any other=20 major economy, it had already begun to reduce its reliance on the United States for exports, imports, investment, and technology. Whether China=20 will be able to capture new external opportunities in the United States=E2= =80=99 retreat will depend on whether it can overcome other countries=E2=80=99=20 skepticism about its reliability as an insurer. Will it merely seek to=20 run the same kind of protection racket as the United States=E2=80=94or a wo= rse=20 one?

It is a tragic and destructive irony that, in the name of=20 national security, the United States is now injuring the allies that=20 have contributed the most to its economic well-being while leaving China far less disadvantaged. That is why Trump officials=E2=80=99 belief that t= hese=20 close allies will simply accept the =E2=80=9Crebalancing=E2=80=9D imposed o= n them is=20 profoundly mistaken. These governments will be pragmatic, but that=20 pragmatism will take a very different form than the Trump administration desires. For decades, they gave Washington the benefit of the doubt.=20 Now they are losing their illusions and will offer less to the United=20 States, not more.

Trump=E2=80=99s actions will alter= China=E2=80=99s immediate economic environment the least.

There will be opportunities in this new landscape. But they will involve the=20 U.S. economy less and less. The most promising possibility is that=20 European and Asian countries, excluding China, will join to create a new space of relative stability. The EU and the Comprehensive and=20 Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, an alliance=20 composed of mostly Indo-Pacific states, are already exploring new forms=20 of cooperation. In June, the president of the European Commission,=20 Ursula von der Leyen, described these negotiations as an effort at=20 =E2=80=9Credesigning=E2=80=9D the World Trade Organization to =E2=80=9Cshow= the world that free=20 trade with a large number of countries is possible on a rules-based=20 foundation.=E2=80=9D These economies could also do more to guarantee mutual= =20 investment rights, create binding mechanisms for settling trade=20 disputes, and pool their liquidity to respond to financial shocks. They=20 could seek to maintain the function and influence of the International=20 Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization,=20 protecting these institutions from paralysis as China or the United=20 States seek to veto necessary initiatives.

If they want to sustain some fraction of the global economy=E2=80=99s prior openness and stability= ,=20 however, these countries will have to build blocs with a selective=20 membership rather than pursue a strictly multilateral approach. This=20 would be a poor substitute for the system over which the United States=20 had presided. But it would be much better than simply accepting the=20 economy that the Trump administration is now creating.

As for the=20 United States itself, no matter how many bilateral trade deals it=20 brokers, no matter how many economies appear=E2=80=94at first=E2=80=94to al= ign with=20 Washington at a high cost, the country will find itself increasingly=20 bypassed in commerce and technology and less able to influence other=20 countries=E2=80=99 investment and security decisions. The U.S. supply chain= s=20 that the Trump administration claims to want to secure will become less=20 reliable=E2=80=94inherently costlier, less diversified in their sourcing, a= nd=20 subject to more risk from U.S.-specific shocks. Leaving behind much of=20 the developing world will not only increase migrant flows and trigger=20 public health crises; it will prevent the United States from tapping=20 potential market opportunities. The Trump administration=E2=80=99s moves to= =20 drive away foreign investment will erode U.S. living standards and the=20 U.S. military=E2=80=99s capacity. European, Asian, and even Brazilian and= =20 Turkish brands will likely gain market share at American companies=E2=80=99= =20 expense, while technical standards for products such as automobiles and=20 financial services technologies will increasingly diverge from U.S.=20 norms. Many of these phenomena will be self-reinforcing, making them=20 hard to reverse even after Trump leaves the White House.

As the=20 song goes, you don=E2=80=99t know what you=E2=80=99ve got till it=E2=80=99s= gone. The Trump=20 administration has paved paradise and put up a casino, with what will=20 soon be an empty parking lot.


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Thu, 28 Aug 2025 05:49:08 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 08:48:51 -0400 X-Gm-Features: Ac12FXxMSCmrL-D251cDx-SXc68iGpPh6sAkyWJgBtYjSTq9cT-h3xL0oEfvxIE Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000cc7644063d6c5466" Subject: [Salon] More Americans now Sympathize with Palestinians than with Israelis X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 12:49:12 -0000 --000000000000cc7644063d6c5466 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://www.juancole.com/2025/08/americans-sympathize-palestinians.html * *More Americans now Sympathize with Palestinians than with Israelis* *Juan Cole 08/28/2025* *Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) =E2=80=93 A new opinion poll by the Sadat Center at the University of Maryland finds a sea change in the American public on the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians. For the first time, the percentage of Americans who say they sympathize with Palestinians (28%) exceeds the percentage who sympathize with Israelis (22%)[!!!] Some one fourth (26%) of Americans say they are equally sympathetic to both. So 54% of Americans now sympathize with Palestinians, either primarily or equally with Israelis. Some 12% don=E2=80=99t like eith= er one, and 13% don=E2=80=99t know. So of the Americans who have an opinion and fee= l knowledgeable, actually 67.5% either sympathize mainly with the Palestinians or equally with them and Israelis.* *I=E2=80=99ve been following this issue all my life, and I=E2=80=99m in my = early 70s, and this outcome is an absolutely astonishing turnabout. * *In 2010, just 15 years ago, the respected Zogby polling organization found that 65% of Americans were favorable toward Israel, and 49 percent had a favorable view of then Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (down from 53% the year before). * *And the percent favorable toward Palestinians? 21% in 2010, with 73% =E2=80=9Cunfavorable.=E2=80=9D 34% supported Israeli squatter-settlements o= n the Palestinian West Bank, with only 40% opposing them =E2=80=94 even though th= e latter was at the time the official policy of the US government. Only 6% wanted the US government to lean toward the Palestinians. Some 50% wanted a middle course.* *Now, 22% of Americans think Israel is committing a genocide, and if you combine them with those who think Israel is committing war crimes of some description, it comes to nearly half the respondents. Moreover, that is in a situation where 23% say they don=E2=80=99t know. * *Only 22% of Americans in this poll think that Israel=E2=80=99s actions are justified under the right of self defense.* *Netanyahu and his rogues=E2=80=99 gallery cabinet has driven Israel=E2=80= =99s numbers into the basement.* *Moreover, some 61% of Americans frankly acknowledge that the US is complicit in allowing the Israelis to pursue these war crimes.* *Photo of 2025 Boston demo by Brett Wharton on Unsplash * *These attitudes have formed even though American network and cable television =E2=80=9Cnews=E2=80=9D almost never report what is going on in G= aza, and even though the newspapers of record often give permission for genocide by framing it as self-defense or acting as stenographers for false Israeli propaganda that hospitals are Hamas command centers and journalists are covert Hamas operatives. Principled journalists are actually resigning from major news services over it. I mean, I=E2=80=99m to the point where I can= =E2=80=99t bear to watch American media on this issue.* *Yet despite the ways in which mainstream media runs cover for Israel=E2=80= =99s genocide, the American people have figured it out. There isn=E2=80=99t much= hope for our politics, but maybe this is a sign that Lincoln=E2=80=99s adage tha= t you can=E2=80=99t fool all the people all the time still holds in the post-trut= h era.* --000000000000cc7644063d6c5466 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

=

More Americans now Sympa= thize with Palestinians than with Israelis

Ann A= rbor (Informed Comment) =E2=80=93 A new=C2=A0opinion = poll=C2=A0by the Sadat Center at the University of Marylan= d finds a sea change in the American public on the conflict between the Isr= aelis and the Palestinians. For the first time, the percentage of Americans= who say they sympathize with Palestinians (28%) exceeds the percentage who= sympathize with Israelis (22%)[!!!] Some one fourth (26%) of Americans say= they are equally sympathetic to both. So 54% of Americans now sympathize w= ith Palestinians, either primarily or equally with Israelis. Some 12% don= =E2=80=99t like either one, and 13% don=E2=80=99t know. So of the Americans= who have an opinion and feel knowledgeable, actually 67.5% either sympathi= ze mainly with the Palestinians or equally with them and Israelis.

I=E2=80=99ve been following this issue all my life, and I= =E2=80=99m in my early 70s, and this outcome is an absolutely astonishing t= urnabout.=C2=A0

In 2010, just 15 year= s ago, the respected=C2=A0Zogby polling=C2=A0organization found that 65% of Americans were favorable tow= ard Israel, and 49 percent had a favorable view of then Israeli Prime Minis= ter Benjamin Netanyahu (down from 53% the year before).=C2=A0<= /font>

And the percent favorable toward Palestinians? 21%= in 2010, with 73% =E2=80=9Cunfavorable.=E2=80=9D 34% supported Israeli squ= atter-settlements on the Palestinian West Bank, with only 40% opposing them= =E2=80=94 even though the latter was at the time the official policy of th= e US government. Only 6% wanted the US government to lean toward the Palest= inians. Some 50% wanted a middle course.

Now, 22% = of Americans think Israel is committing a genocide, and if you combine them= with those who think Israel is committing war crimes of some description, = it comes to nearly half the respondents. Moreover, that is in a situation w= here 23% say they don=E2=80=99t know.=C2=A0

Only 22% of Americans in this poll think= that Israel=E2=80=99s actions are justified under the right of self defens= e.

Netanyahu and his rogues=E2=80=99 gallery c= abinet has driven Israel=E2=80=99s numbers into the basement.

Moreover, some 61% of Americans frankly acknowledge that the U= S is complicit in allowing the Israelis to pursue these war crimes.<= /b>

3D""Photo of 2025 Boston demo by=C2= =A0Brett Wharton= =C2=A0on=C2=A0Unsplash<= /b>

These attitudes have formed even though Ameri= can network and cable television =E2=80=9Cnews=E2=80=9D almost never report= what is going on in Gaza, and even though the newspapers of record often g= ive permission for genocide by framing it as self-defense or acting as sten= ographers for false Israeli propaganda that hospitals are Hamas command cen= ters and journalists are covert Hamas operatives. Principled journalists ar= e actually=C2=A0resigning=C2=A0from major new= s services over it. I mean, I=E2=80=99m to the point where I can=E2=80=99t = bear to watch American media on this issue.

Yet de= spite the ways in which mainstream media runs cover for Israel=E2=80=99s ge= nocide, the American people have figured it out. There isn=E2=80=99t much h= ope for our politics, but maybe this is a sign that Lincoln=E2=80=99s adage= that you can=E2=80=99t fool all the people all the time still holds in the= post-truth era.

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Thu, 28 Aug 2025 06:59:52 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 09:59:37 -0400 X-Gm-Features: Ac12FXy12Xo_uA_YXdIdZi0GRU8_iBbXoGxdjjcSnhh2Hp59V739yITOKDghU4g Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000c20fb8063d6d51cc" Subject: [Salon] The Decline of American Diplomacy X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 13:59:55 -0000 --000000000000c20fb8063d6d51cc Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://therealistreview.substack.com/p/the-decline-of-american-statesmans= hip * *The Decline of American Diplomacy*From Galbraith and Moynihan to...whatever this is. *James W. Carden* 8/28/25 *A few years ago at a panel discussion at Washington DC=E2=80=99s venerable= Tabard Inn, I spotted a face I hadn=E2=80=99t expected to see. But Thomas R. Picke= ring, even at 90 years of age, stood out. A legend in the annals of American diplomacy, Pickering had served as US Ambassador to the UN, Russia, Israel, and India, among a number of other countries. He retired as the third-ranking member of the State Department at the end of the Clinton administration. So formidable a diplomat was Pickering that, according to longtime New York Times diplomatic correspondent Leslie Gelb, Pickering was seen as "arguably the best-ever senior U.S. representative" to the UN. And that list included the likes of Adlai Stevenson, George Ball, and George H.W. Bush. Gelb's report was occasioned by Pickering=E2=80=99s sudde= n transfer from Turtle Bay to New Delhi. Why was he being moved? Well, as Gelb told it, "It is widely believed by Washington cognoscenti that Ambassador Pickering is being posted to India for the worst of reasons: Secretary of State James Baker feels that the career diplomat is casting too big a shadow on the Baker parade."* *Nevertheless, Pickering=E2=80=99s appointment to India was in keeping with= a tradition that US presidents had of sending among the most capable men available to New Delhi. During the Cold War, it was a particularly sensitive post given India=E2=80=99s role as a leader of the non-aligned bl= oc-in other words, those countries that refused either Washington or Moscow=E2=80= =99s tutelage. In 1961, John F. Kennedy sent his friend, the famed Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith to New Delhi. In addition to running point on the war that broke out between India and China in 1962, Galbraith offered sagacious advice to Kennedy before, during, and after the Bay of Pigs and October Crisis. He was also among the few to see the problems ahead in Vietnam.* *Following Galbraith some years later in New Delhi was another habitu=C3=A9= of Harvard Yard, Daniel Patrick Moynihan. Moynihan would also serve as UN Ambassador and then later, for a quarter century, as the senior Democratic Senator from New York. Moynihan, a Democrat who had in the 1950s worked for New York Governor Averell Harriman, was sent by President Richard Nixon to help reset relations with India in the aftermath of Nixon's "tilt" toward Pakistan. While in India, Moynihan proposed, and then carried out, a creative debt write-off program that helped to improve relations with the world's most populous democracy.* *Recent US administrations (Bush, Obama, Trump) have often decided to send career foreign service officers to New Delhi=E2=80=94which is all to the go= od, after all, Pickering was a career foreign service officer. Such men and women often bring a deft touch in confronting nettlesome problems.* *President Joe Biden=E2=80=99s (or the person who was actually making the d= ecisions for Biden) choice for Ambassador to India was, for reasons that remain obscure, the nepo-mayor of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti. The downward trend in quality seems set to continue. Last week, President Trump announced that a former errand boy for Sen. Rand Paul=E2=80=99s office (an office that see= ms to attract self-important types who think that plagiarizing Wikipedia is a substitute for speechwriting) who somehow parlayed that role into a publishing partnership with the Trump sons (the partnership produced the imaginatively titled Letters to Trump=E2=80=94available for a cool $100 at trumpstore.com ) will be his nominee to head the diplomatic mission in New Delhi. Sergio Gor, a 38 year old native of Malta with zero diplomatic or foreign affairs experience (but, as it happens, ample experience as an amateur wedding DJ) will take the reins in New Delhi pending Senate confirmation (or, more likely, a recess appointment). It is said that for the last 7 months Gor has been the Director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, but there is little evidence of his time there, as scores of political appointments remain unfilled.* *From Galbraith, Moynihan and Pickering to Garcetti and Gor. The long decline of American statecraft continues.* *James W. Carden is editor of TRR.* --000000000000c20fb8063d6d51cc Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable --000000000000c20fb8063d6d51cc-- From cwfresidence@gmail.com Thu Aug 28 07:42:49 2025 Return-Path: X-Original-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Delivered-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Received: from mlm0.listserve.net (mlm0.listserve.net [161.35.233.68]) by mlm2.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id 51BC8B0851 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 07:42:49 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 mlm2.listserve.net 51BC8B0851 Authentication-Results: mlm2.listserve.net; dkim=pass (2048-bit key) header.d=gmail.com header.i=@gmail.com header.b="Wua/0dZ/" Received: by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) id 4C1BDBD02E; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 07:42:49 -0700 (PDT) Delivered-To: salon@listserve.com Received: from mail-lf1-f50.google.com (mail-lf1-f50.google.com [209.85.167.50]) by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 4487ABD029 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 07:42:49 -0700 (PDT) Received: by mail-lf1-f50.google.com with SMTP id 2adb3069b0e04-55ce508d4d6so1005531e87.0 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 07:42:49 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20230601; t=1756392167; x=1756996967; darn=listserve.com; h=to:subject:message-id:date:from:mime-version:from:to:cc:subject :date:message-id:reply-to; bh=hk/xN/VFT1BVsGC3dMt+YF74JQwHp69ADzo2dDmhX88=; b=Wua/0dZ/OoymcJLVJcZanJaA4Vw9U8RPy/DoakBYyOnGxslt45sZG954VMoa/vC9g3 napz7rUjz9XZn2m02rrSIPnVsWwuDtB0eePFISFMqIoGPPocDpDvj6rQxfqqZA31eZBZ hfXxCw+M4n3eXh5MCsJ2c3sRp5qbqRoCKrdi57Qg7lb4uHsPUvrVOZmTskh0839thm3R qrEeoDEnjJLPXSkp9c1LPXkHspg3ZlTTuI0p1HidRhFZnfhhvDov3d0ex/qOqUU54IHk Er9NIlh6FXWZznLuBJUYjFIwQ67VwX0VliG+RT7lIUIiFooW08ahs9YTkARY9tBkvM/n eLpw== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20230601; t=1756392167; x=1756996967; h=to:subject:message-id:date:from:mime-version:x-gm-message-state :from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=hk/xN/VFT1BVsGC3dMt+YF74JQwHp69ADzo2dDmhX88=; b=OGbUJ6fun5lt4lSzhXiscckhgdpRjiQb+c/6nEXBR3yneJ66GiRV1b5u+ZNplEJGsi 6OOQ7x7g+SRuHlWsxtoVTsTLTwWgJC3BvHZFQXC0vHYzkAJ7i4lum2s1nKbthfJ0uGR/ /jQWZrxlmbNfZhcxf466+73kqqviFuNc5aqjA/bCbWAq9uVZuhA0dR+N51mrRJW45K1S eDfqa5VEJIpVws66i+7tiXKLMqkOy6f74OZSTGKu4h67eI9fzx2YxkNh/A9OfBRhjarZ F3mxAc6TfFU8Zu9ow6c4N/WogizpXDQ7gP4V239i9VPSmgyK6V1xzxYWETJDVZfQylpg 3b8A== X-Gm-Message-State: AOJu0YwVHWyhXh27ialzAYH5QvjGRYgBD/iVkpVpDWqGtffi8I2mXXtI fsJ6i4l+d4uMDNTgdJqb1uXy4ksO14ZKq1ANGYU46Sic/nUcnUlB39w+bqA1Im1bFML67Tt9f7E /VGuPa+bS0qFsbow+12NpHuo7+iwkjQTTZXMq X-Gm-Gg: ASbGnctOBnCqWySZcRljo4hKVo7h2eK/AUhaf6CWv2X3UWrEXurJ5Bdpg9xOu2NF5Gp 4Oo13tPYuAQpz+4S9d92bu54GsswrA4Vt7cm3UJD7JovmTa8ucF5Qng8oyqMGpjlXYMddRSaXF5 F1MQGfUIQcie9tV5bEIkfqhBuMJcTR2R5wvqqPe3/TyII2rF8h2gGzAewRayu6S0ygOOQ6uWUEJ IdBhVM7VlZnVCH1dhQt8q3kcScTE3h5lyXn3Awb+0qMBC0/aeKPw4cYFywlbygDUUNTHFkRA5Cz sVlAWG8n4odVswniOlLMoCD+cleNiqEw4YJyI5E9HmEtB1gLBkdSxxtlkJC7k1wmVs+7w7v9KTJ eu/k/HCTevQ== X-Google-Smtp-Source: AGHT+IHZKumEN+sPAyzELXCvOkSfC6VTJzFb+ZaQ7lQ1bV1mK/kAg3Gxax+2z8wcK2YcME9S9YXqtDbBMRfwhXqkhMg= X-Received: by 2002:a05:6512:6410:b0:55b:7582:28d0 with SMTP id 2adb3069b0e04-55f0c6b4ed3mr6290423e87.21.1756392166415; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 07:42:46 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 From: Chas Freeman Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 10:42:28 -0400 X-Gm-Features: Ac12FXwqrKwtrPuy7HH2Cnl_RSX3Nk23wmbmXowvuomPmNSpFvzCr69rjKxZ_QU Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0000000000002a5f95063d6debc1" Subject: [Salon] VIP attendees at China's 9/3 Victory Parade X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 14:42:49 -0000 --0000000000002a5f95063d6debc1 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable http://eng.mod.gov.cn/xb/News_213114/TopStories/16405492.html Source=EF=BC=9A Xinhuanet Editor=EF=BC=9ALin Congyi 2025-08-28 20:15:54 BEIJING, Aug. 28 (Xinhua) -- At the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, 26 foreign leaders will attend China's V-Day commemorations in Beijing, Assistant Foreign Minister Hong Lei announced on Thursday. China will stage a massive military parade on Sept. 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. Foreign leaders invited to attend the commemorations include Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and president of the State Affairs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni, Vietnamese President Luong Cuong, General Secretary of the Lao People's Revolutionary Party Central Committee and Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, President of the Republic of the Congo Denis Sassou Nguesso, Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Miguel Diaz-Canel, first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba and Cuban president, and Min Aung Hlaing, acting president of Myanmar. At the invitation of the Chinese government, heads of parliaments, deputy prime ministers and high-level representatives from various countries, heads of international organizations, and former political dignitaries will attend the V-Day commemorations. --0000000000002a5f95063d6debc1 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

http://e= ng.mod.gov.cn/xb/News_213114/TopStories/16405492.html

Source=EF=BC=9A=C2=A0Xinhuane= t=C2=A0Editor=EF=BC=9A<= /span>Lin Congyi=C2=A02025-08-28 20:15:54

BEIJING, Aug. 28 (Xinhua) -= - At the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, 26 foreign leaders wil= l attend China's V-Day commemorations in Beijing, Assistant Foreign Min= ister Hong Lei announced on Thursday.

China will stage a massive milita= ry parade on Sept. 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in = the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and = the World Anti-Fascist War.

Foreign leaders invited to attend the comme= morations include Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, general se= cretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and president of the State Affai= rs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Cambodian King Norodom= Sihamoni, Vietnamese President Luong Cuong, General Secretary of the Lao P= eople's Revolutionary Party Central Committee and Lao President Thonglo= un Sisoulith, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, Malaysian Prime Minist= er Anwar Ibrahim, Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, Pakistani Prime Mi= nister Shahbaz Sharif, Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, Maldivian Presi= dent Mohamed Muizzu, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Uzbek Presiden= t Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Kyrgyz President Sady= r Japarov, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Belarusian President Al= exander Lukashenko, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Mini= ster Nikol Pashinyan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, President of the= Republic of the Congo Denis Sassou Nguesso, Zimbabwean President Emmerson = Mnangagwa, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Slovak Prime Minister Robert= Fico, Miguel Diaz-Canel, first secretary of the Central Committee of the C= ommunist Party of Cuba and Cuban president, and Min Aung Hlaing, acting pre= sident of Myanmar.

At the invitation of the Chinese government, heads o= f parliaments, deputy prime ministers and high-level representatives from v= arious countries, heads of international organizations, and former politica= l dignitaries will attend the V-Day commemorations.

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Subscribe here for more Trump fires CDC director, Israeli military declares =E2=80=9Cinevitable=E2= =80=9D forced displacement of millions from Gaza City, and Israel strikes Damascus Drop Site Daily: August 28, 2025 Drop Site News Aug 28 READ IN APP *Palestinians have been killed and 339 injured. Four more died of famine and malnutrition, including two children. Every member of the UN=E2=80=99s = Security Council agreed the famine in Gaza is a =E2=80=9Cman-made crisis=E2=80=9D=E2=80=94except th= e United States. Israel=E2=80=99s military spokesperson says the evacuation of Gaza City is =E2=80=9Cinevitable .=E2=80=9D Two additional Gaza Humanitarian Foundation =E2=80=9Caid=E2=80=9D sites are slated to open in southern Gaza as Israel closes one GHF site in Rafah. Steve Witkoff is reportedly consulting with Jared Kushner on the Gaza =E2=80=9Cday-after= =E2=80=9D plan. In San Francisco, 138 arrested after protesters occupied the lobby of Sen. Alex Padilla=E2=80=99s office to demand action against the Gaza genocide. I= sraeli strikes on Damascus kill eight Syrian soldiers. Venezuela deploys ships to the Pacific Coast in response to American militarization in the region. The Trump administration fired CDC Director Susan Monarez after she refused to resign amid pressure to change vaccine policy.* *=E2=9A=A1=EF=B8=8FIntroducing the Drop Site Recap=E2=80=94a quick video ru= ndown of stories we tracked on August 27, 2025. * *This is Drop Site Daily, our new, free daily news recap. *We=E2=80=99ll be= sending it Monday through Friday. *Programming note:* We have switched our WhatsApp group to a WhatsApp channel, which is far superior. You can sign up here to get updates from us on WhatsApp. Subscribed Displaced Palestinians flee Gaza City towards the southern areas of the Gaza Strip, in Nuseirat, on August 28, 2025 (Photo by EYAD BABA/AFP via Getty Images). The Genocide in Gaza - Gaza=E2=80=99s Ministry of Health reports at least 71 Palestinians kille= d and 339 injured in the past 24 hours. 22 Palestinians were killed and 203 injured while seeking aid. Four more deaths were recorded due to starvat= ion and malnutrition. The total recorded death toll since October 7, 2023 is now 62,966 killed and 159,266 injured. - Strikes were reported in northern, central, and southern Gaza yesterday killing at least 52 peopl= e. In Gaza City and the north, attacks hit residential buildings, refugee camps, and aid seekers, killing and wounding dozens while homes were demolished in multiple neighborhoods. Central and southern Gaza also cam= e under heavy fire, with fatalities including a woman and child in Al-Bure= ij camp and 16 people in Khan Younis. - Israel=E2=80=99s military announced that the evacuation of Gaza City is =E2=80=9Cinevitable,=E2=80=9D claiming families moving south will rec= eive aid in tent camps and distribution centers, despite reports that no space remains an= d no new shelter equipment has entered Gaza since March. Human rights grou= ps warn that the plan amounts to concentration camps, aimed to control and ultimately expel over two million Palestinians as part of Israel=E2=80= =99s next phase of war. - The mayor of Deir al-Balah rejected the IDF=E2=80=99s claim that Gaza=E2=80=99s central camps have = =E2=80=9Cvast empty areas,=E2=80=9D saying there is no space for new tents as the coastline is overcrowded, = the east is under bombardment, and infrastructure is collapsing. He warned t= hat conditions across the central governorate are pushing it toward a humanitarian catastrophe if displacement continues. Gaza=E2=80=99s Gover= nment Media Office also responded in a statement saying that the Israeli military spokesperson=E2=80=99s claims are =E2=80=9Cpart of a propaganda campaign= aimed at breaking the steadfastness of our Palestinian people in Gaza and the north.=E2=80= =9D.=E2=80=9D - Gaza Civil Defense reported that over 1,500 residential buildings in Al-Zaytoun have been completely destroyed since Israel=E2=80=99s ground operation b= egan on August 6, leaving the area flattened. Spokesman Mahmoud Basal said simil= ar devastation is unfolding in Jabaliya, with the army using heavy machiner= y, explosives, and drones to accelerate demolition. About 80% of Al-Zaytoun= =E2=80=99s residents have been displaced to other parts of Gaza City. - Israel plans to open two additional Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) =E2=80=9Caid=E2=80=9D centers. Critics warn the militarized hubs force c= ivilians to risk their lives for minimal food, with over 2,000 killed seeking aid since t= he program began. - Gaza=E2=80=99s media office reports that since March 2, Israel has been = blocking essential foods from reaching Palestinian civilians, including eggs, meat, fish, dairy, fruits, vegetables, and nutritional supplements. Dozens of other items, such as nuts and supplements for pregnant women and people with chronic illnesses, have also been prohibited. - New from Middle East Eye : U.S. contractors in Gaza reportedly pursued journalist Mohammad Salama, with one of his sources interrogated at a GHF aid center about Salama=E2= =80=99s identity and whereabouts days before he was killed at Nasser Hospital. - A Sky News investigation found that, of the six people Israel said were =E2=80=9Cterrorists=E2=80= =9D killed in its strike on Nasser Hospital, only one was identified as a fighter, and he = was killed elsewhere two days prior to the strike on the hospital. - Hundreds of UN staff at the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights have called on UN human rights chief Volker Turk to explicitly ca= ll the Gaza war a genocide, according to a letter seen by Reuters . In the letter signed by the Staff Committee on behalf of over 500 employees, they write: "OHCHR has a strong legal and moral responsibilit= y to denounce acts of genocide. Failing to denounce an unfolding genocide undermines the credibility of the U.N. and the human rights system itsel= f.=E2=80=9D - Apart from the U.S., every UN Security Council member said the famine in Gaza is a =E2=80=9Cman-made crisis.=E2=80=9D In a joint statement, 14 ou= t of 15 member states of the council called for an immediate, unconditional and permane= nt ceasefire, the release of all hostages held by Hamas and other groups, a substantive surge of aid throughout Gaza, and for Israel to immediately = and unconditionally lift all restrictions on aid delivery. At the UN Securit= y Council, U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Shea dismissed the IPC=E2=80=99s famine declaration in Gaza, accusing its authors of bias and claiming the repor= t lacked credibility, without providing evidence to refute its findings. Ceasefire Negotiations and Israeli News - White House special envoy Steve Witkoff has been working with Jared Kushner and Tony Blair on post-war Gaza plans , briefing Donald Trump on proposals for governance without Hamas and expanded humanitarian aid amid deepening famine. Controversial elements = of the plan, developed with Israeli businessmen and financial modeling by t= he Boston Consulting Group, reportedly included incentives to =E2=80=9Crelo= cate=E2=80=9D up to half a million Palestinians, though Blair=E2=80=99s institute denied end= orsing the concept. - Hamas political bureau officials rejected Witkoff=E2= =80=99s claim that Hamas is blocking Gaza ceasefire talks, saying the statements ignore Israel=E2=80=99s systematic obstruction and echo Netanyahu=E2=80= =99s narrative. They noted Hamas had accepted a mediator-proposed deal, while Israel continue= s its military assault on Gaza City and ongoing civilian massacres. U.S. News - U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa=E2=80=99ar at the State Depa= rtment, posing for photos before starting discussions without taking questions. = The meeting coincides with a White House-led session on post-war Gaza planni= ng, following Sa=E2=80=99ar=E2=80=99s recent claim at the UN that hunger in = Gaza is a =E2=80=9Clie.=E2=80=9D - Taylor Lorenz reports in Wired that a secretive Democratic influencer network, funded = by the Sixteen Thirty Fund and run through the nonprofit arm of Good Influence, pays creators up to $8,000 a month under strict contracts tha= t bar disclosure and allow forced content deletions. The program, called t= he Chorus Creator Incubator, has signed over 90 influencers with a reach of= 40 million+, drawing criticism for using the same opaque tactics Democrats have condemned in the past. - The Trump administration fired Susan Monarez from her position as director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday amid pressure placed on the agency to change U.S. vaccine policy. Monare= z=E2=80=99s lawyers say Monarez had refused to resign, and prior to her firing, her lawyers had written in a public statement that =E2=80=9CWhen CDC Directo= r Susan Monarez refused to rubber-stamp unscientific, reckless directives and fi= re dedicated health experts, she chose protecting the public over serving a political agenda. For that reason, she has been targeted.=E2=80=9D In re= sponse, Monarez was immediately fired by the White House, and other senior CDC officials have since resigned in protest. - Biden National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan now claims he urged Democrats to vote against sending weapons to Israel. - Brad Pitt, Rooney Mara, Joaquin Phoenix, Alfonso Cuar=C3=B3n, and Jonath= an Glazer have joined as executive producers of The Voice of Hind Rajab , which is set to premiere at the Venice Film Festival. Directed by Kaouth= er Ben Hania, the film tells the story of the 6-year-old girl killed with h= er family in Gaza and will screen at several major international festivals. International News - U.S. envoy Tom Barrack cut short his visit to southern Lebanon amid protests against Washington=E2=80=99s push to d= isarm Hezbollah and outrage over his comments telling journalists to =E2=80=9C= act civilized.=E2=80=9D Demonstrations erupted in Khiam and Tyre, with Hezbo= llah supporters denouncing U.S. policies, while Lebanon plans to present a disarmament plan despite Hezbollah insisting Israel must first withdraw from Lebanese territory. - The Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and several other regions of Ukraine were hit by a large-scale combined missile and drone assault overnight into Thursday, Ukrainian officials reported. At least 18 people, including fo= ur children, were killed in the capital. Reports indicate that high-speed Geran-3 drones equipped with jet engines were used in the attack. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in a post to Telegram that it was "a terribl= e night" for the capital, reporting "many damaged buildings" across five c= ity districts. - Venezuela=E2=80=99s Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino announced the depl= oyment of naval vessels and drones along the country=E2=80=99s Caribbean coast in response to th= e U.S. sending warships and thousands of troops to the region, citing drug trafficking concerns and offering rewards for the capture of President Maduro and other officials. Caracas condemned the U.S. actions as a thre= at to regional peace, mobilized militias and troops along the Colombian border, and dismantled drug-smuggling shipyards, while analysts suggest = the military build-up is more posturing than an imminent invasion. - Syrian state media reports that Israeli strikes on Damascus killed at least eight soldiers after Syrian troops discovered Israeli surveillance devices near Mount al-Manea. The escalation included multip= le air raids, drone strikes, and a helicopter airdrop targeting military sites, prompting Damascus to condemn the attacks as a serious violation = of sovereignty. - The US has imposed punitive 50% tariffs on Indian imports in response to New Delhi=E2=80=99s continued purchases of discounted Russian oil, addin= g onto another 25% tariff already imposed on New Delhi. The move significantly strains trade relations between the two countries and threatens key sect= ors of the Indian economy such as textiles, gems, shrimp, and carpets. The move, seen by some as pressure on Russia via India, comes amid stalled trade talks and deteriorating ties between U.S. and Indian leaders and could reduce Indian exports to the US by nearly 40%, risking hundreds of thousands of jobs. More from Drop Site - *Israeli forces are pushing deeper into Gaza City with tanks, warplanes, and drones, leveling entire neighborhoods and forcing thousands to flee = as famine and mass displacement worsen. Residents describe the assault as a= n =E2=80=9Ceternal displacement=E2=80=9D and the final push to empty Gaza= =E2=80=99s largest city.* *Read more from Abdel Qader Sabbah here * - *Trump hosted Armenian PM Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev at the White House on August 8, announcing a high-profile peace declaration and economic agreements aimed at ending decades of conflict. Critics say the deal sidelines displaced Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians and fails to guarantee their right of return, raising questions about justice and long-term stability.* *Read more from Emily Wilder here. * If you want to continue getting this newsletter, you don=E2=80=99t have to = do anything. But if this is too much=E2=80=94we do try to be mindful of your i= nbox=E2=80=94you can unsubscribe from this newsletter while continuing to get the rest of our reporting. Just go into your account here at this link, scroll down, and toggle the button next to =E2=80=9CDrop Site Daily=E2=80=9D to the off sett= ing. *It looks like this*: Share Leave a comment Wait! Don=E2=80=99t go just yet, one more thing: If you=E2=80=99re glad the story you just read exists, thank yourself for i= t, because it wouldn=E2=80=99t have been possible without paying subscribers l= ike you. We're deeply grateful for your commitment to our work. Now, if you=E2=80=99= re the kind of person who can do a little bit more, our in-depth investigations often do need extra resources. Please consider amplifying your impact with an additional donation. Every contribution directly funds our non-profit journalism and is tax deductible to the fullest extent of the law. 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Trump fires CDC director, Israeli military declares = =E2=80=9Cinevitable=E2=80=9D forced displacement of millions from Gaza City= , and Israel strikes Damascus

D= rop Site Daily: August 28, 2025

<= tr>3D""3D"" --000000000000be86b4063d6e47a1-- From cwfresidence@gmail.com Thu Aug 28 08:10:13 2025 Return-Path: X-Original-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Delivered-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Received: from mlm0.listserve.net (mlm0.listserve.net [161.35.233.68]) by mlm2.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id 26484B0851 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 08:10:13 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 mlm2.listserve.net 26484B0851 Authentication-Results: mlm2.listserve.net; dkim=pass (2048-bit key) header.d=gmail.com header.i=@gmail.com header.b="VDTpvJtT" Received: by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) id 1C703BD030; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 08:10:13 -0700 (PDT) Delivered-To: salon@listserve.com Received: from mail-ej1-f43.google.com (mail-ej1-f43.google.com [209.85.218.43]) by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 13C90BD029 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 08:10:13 -0700 (PDT) Received: by mail-ej1-f43.google.com with SMTP id a640c23a62f3a-afcb7a16441so151280766b.2 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 08:10:13 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20230601; t=1756393811; x=1756998611; darn=listserve.com; h=to:subject:message-id:date:from:in-reply-to:references:mime-version :from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=2uxYAfKF38xEoEcH/An3KigEdHbPhARWwxCcqJ0cF3s=; b=VDTpvJtTMC8d/40BYWXEiXJ7YWuBL2o4oyF4aEe+B+cmO1uqh5t69zzm4jakJlJ1qM NTRJXPJJIYuTLdDbjP5fZ2O+B/Mo1WYvJM/8z0bkLqTN0wlHav3u5fBkhSRbf8u+mH14 Vrb8OYnwjHoqSsYoMVciG+4pfhzorZwNfAJzJHMjCs7KBwj3zjG1y1olCZpGvVZt05PV IXpUTNRLsOGSrVrtcnXZ4/qw6nSLywayTiCk7R1S5JLuzAFtW3UHv4KB/40AcHoEn6LE 9TujyNDAFVLkTlTTjwRW5U6qxSr9nt6L91d65wwQySHt+YI5/MCaEfCbHJq9nLcr09Gk wNng== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20230601; t=1756393811; x=1756998611; h=to:subject:message-id:date:from:in-reply-to:references:mime-version :x-gm-message-state:from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=2uxYAfKF38xEoEcH/An3KigEdHbPhARWwxCcqJ0cF3s=; b=VqVrHlZGa5iDhldgsje64/6w1TewGSVz5lB8/IwhBk4UJRwtdkp51ywkxZHUt2Vp4f N58cTEjNJYtTPFwXCjF4rYqNEJyX4G+cjdks/MmLAArUHlgkWZ7tMc+7tRA4tpp6i3sz 8Pw+GahyOW+sGPkAVsCdMqCZPcAM/dhBdayCLaSxZLgHJ/RRXJPHgY1kCJT4vXOPlH81 J+HzJv2H18P1OYBgiK8KLMnDyX/+3xMX/2DMTVOIMgnhgsS+KG8K9t/XY3vZY3hoTBaS GVYQc2lS7a7LnNO4VKGXPbaXG1LyFKAT0Mwf6U8OvCTo5y6qJoGsnOCOeNHMtMtbF/Gf Fu5g== X-Gm-Message-State: AOJu0YwfLTIeyo2WRaNXBs0AmGD5rGdm2JXsCbPSk29FFdkTcVm5J1fd TS4quaRnczZxiphW3e+q9euXRml9itEMUS7+Cd1R6Hpk6nxWp8n//uFu6NEn2nh50Ly39S7R0Ph gdhgxsw20Q/w8ovEQj8LxXeE/b5dyIzDZvw== X-Gm-Gg: ASbGncvsRYd/nB7bQ19GhUNt/YKKjb/NjkdgqejaxmdgPaLvpDg0dUIwMDmS3+w49dV 0iG0QFPLLJlrMDvukmEGYWAW6mfHxPaPmiQpXaHCKPoMnMXIhcbtkjbnNiAlRrq4f+3UBQ2cVhd 2TpSk2UrnV5vO/NA93hg1RBJecEAgleyg9RgwELJjvy7SWmO6wODk15sC4LrasV5iQ4smhtM68h lTl+dIsV6IxYrzxdRzNrvo26ZLMANUsEI76jp/M3SouQKQ+me4DWd1gvDix/a/PbeRc2ZF4Z0ph A/c3Mthyuf+McNTfrOleYrLLhZZTh2cyA9FmXVQgydDOKpoY6hfvOKBsSMZ3qu3WmbtKE7ijErf 7ICQPXQZK+Lpr9jWgM5hm X-Google-Smtp-Source: AGHT+IHles1A2bkqbzCtH4Ppw66wwmDZPti6Jp/yF3YLwRYPcS4oi4R/ILN+6Us3tconwKo5yL4+bRRM8ZFcqTzuk0Y= X-Received: by 2002:a17:907:3f07:b0:afe:35d:fd5d with SMTP id a640c23a62f3a-afe28f75d2cmr2163732666b.1.1756393811057; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 08:10:11 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <90904f6d-4ab4-4666-babe-060f85760c55@gmail.com> <76421f02-14bb-4786-8548-3f1ea176fc68@gmail.com> In-Reply-To: <76421f02-14bb-4786-8548-3f1ea176fc68@gmail.com> From: Chas Freeman Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 11:09:55 -0400 X-Gm-Features: Ac12FXw0lP849qZbKczLddQhtx5A_KQ6r6x_Qo7GkwN4pwjlgMvQMofGd0RH3tE Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="00000000000031a12e063d6e4dda" Subject: [Salon] Craig Mokhiber and Mark Seddon on "Uniting for Peace" at the United Nations X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 15:10:13 -0000 --00000000000031a12e063d6e4dda Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable FM: John Whitbeck In the article and video at the links transmitted below, my distinguished recipients Craig Mokhiber and Mark Seddon urge the world to avail itself of the *Uniting for Peace* resolution at next month's UN General Assembly to finally do something meaningful and effective to end the genocide and the occupation and to save the concept of international law from a definitive and ignominious death. www.mondoweiss.net/2025/08/how-the-un-could-act-today-to-stop-the-genocide-= in-palestine EXPOSED: The UN=E2=80=99s Hidden Power to Launch Military Action in Gaza EXPOSED: The UN=E2=80=99s Hidden Power to Launch Military Action in Gaza --00000000000031a12e063d6e4dda Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
FM: John Whitbeck

In the article and video at the links transmitted below, my distinguished recipients Craig Mokhiber and Mark Seddon urge the world to avail itself of the Uniting for Peace resolution at next month's UN General Assembly to finally d= o something meaningful and effective to end the genocide and the occupation and to save the concept of international law from a definitive and ignominious death.

www.mondoweis= s.net/2025/08/how-the-un-could-act-today-to-stop-the-genocide-in-palestine<= /a>

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Palestinians have been killed and 339 injured. Four more died of famine = and malnutrition, including two children. Every member of the UN=E2=80=99= s Security Council agreed the famine in Gaza is a =E2=80=9Cman-ma= de crisis=E2=80=9D=E2=80=94except the United States. Israel=E2=80=99s milit= ary spokesperson says the evacuation of Gaza City is =E2=80=9Cinevitable<= /a>.=E2=80=9D Two additional Gaza Humanitarian Foundation =E2=80=9Cai= d=E2=80=9D sites are slated to open in southern Gaza as Israel cl= oses one GHF site in Rafah. Steve Witkoff is reportedly consultin= g with Jared Kushner on the Gaza =E2=80=9Cday-after=E2=80=9D plan. In San F= rancisco, 138 arrested after protesters occupied the lobby of Sen. Alex Pad= illa=E2=80=99s office to demand action against the Gaza genocide. Israeli s= trikes on Damascus kill eight Syrian soldiers. Venezuela deploys ships to t= he Pacific Coast in response to American militarization in the region. The = Trump administration fired CDC Director Susan Monarez after she refused to = resign amid pressure to change vaccine policy.

= =E2=9A= =A1=EF=B8=8FIntroducing the Drop Site Recap=E2=80=94a quick video rundown o= f stories we tracked on August 27, 2025.

This is = Drop Site Daily, our new, free daily news recap. We=E2=80=99ll be= sending it Monday through Friday.

Programming note: We have switched our WhatsApp group to a WhatsApp channel, which i= s far superior. You can sign up here to get updates from us on Wh= atsApp.

Displaced Palestinians flee Gaza City towards the southern areas of the G= aza Strip, in Nuseirat, on August 28, 2025 (Photo by EYAD BABA/AFP via Gett= y Images).

The Genocide = in Gaza

  • Gaza=E2=80=99= s Ministry of Health reports at least 71 Palestinians killed and 339 injure= d in the past 24 hours. 22 Palestinians were killed and 203 injured while s= eeking aid. Four more deaths were recorded due to starvation and malnutriti= on. The total recorded death toll since October 7, 2023 is now 62,966 kille= d and 159,266 injured.

    Strikes were reported in northern, central, and southern Gaza= yesterday killing at least 52 people. In Gaza City and the north, attacks = hit residential buildings, refugee camps, and aid seekers, killing and woun= ding dozens while homes were demolished in multiple neighborhoods. Central = and southern Gaza also came under heavy fire, with fatalities including a w= oman and child in Al-Bureij camp and 16 people in Khan Younis.

  • Israel=E2= =80=99s military announced that the evacuation of Gaza City is = =E2=80=9Cinevitable,=E2=80=9D claiming families moving south will receive a= id in tent camps and distribution centers, despite reports that no space re= mains and no new shelter equipment has entered Gaza since March. Human righ= ts groups warn that the plan amounts to concentration camps, aimed to contr= ol and ultimately expel over two million Palestinians as part of Israel=E2= =80=99s next phase of war.

  • The mayor of <= /span>D= eir al-Balah rejected the IDF=E2=80=99s claim that Gaza=E2=80=99s= central camps have =E2=80=9Cvast empty areas,=E2=80=9D saying there is no = space for new tents as the coastline is overcrowded, the east is under bomb= ardment, and infrastructure is collapsing. He warned that conditions across= the central governorate are pushing it toward a humanitarian catastrophe i= f displacement continues. Gaza=E2=80=99s Government Media Office also respo= nded in a statement saying that the Israeli military spokesperson=E2=80=99s= claims are =E2=80=9Cpart of a propaganda campaign aimed at breaking the st= eadfastness of our Palestinian people in Gaza and the north.=E2=80=9D.=E2= =80=9D

  • Gaza Civil Defense reported that over 1,500 residential buildings= in Al-Zaytoun have been completely destroyed since Israel=E2=80= =99s ground operation began on August 6, leaving the area flattened. Spokes= man Mahmoud Basal said similar devastation is unfolding in Jabaliya, with t= he army using heavy machinery, explosives, and drones to accelerate demolit= ion. About 80% of Al-Zaytoun=E2=80=99s residents have been displaced to oth= er parts of Gaza City.

  • Israel plans to open two additional Gaza Humanitar= ian Foundation (GHF) =E2=80=9Caid=E2=80=9D centers. Critics warn = the militarized hubs force civilians to risk their lives for minimal food, = with over 2,000 killed seeking aid since the program began.

    • =

  • Gaza=E2=80=99s= media office reports that since March 2, Israel has been blocking essentia= l foods from reaching Palestinian civilians, including eggs, meat= , fish, dairy, fruits, vegetables, and nutritional supplements. Dozens of o= ther items, such as nuts and supplements for pregnant women and people with= chronic illnesses, have also been prohibited.

  • A Sky News investigation found that, of the six people = Israel said were =E2=80=9Cterrorists=E2=80=9D killed in its strike on Nasse= r Hospital, only one was identified as a fighter, and he was killed elsewhe= re two days prior to the strike on the hospital.

  • Hundreds of UN staff at= the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights have called on UN hum= an rights chief Volker Turk to explicitly call the Gaza war a genocide, acc= ording to a letter seen by Reuters. In the letter signed by the S= taff Committee on behalf of over 500 employees, they write: "OHCHR has= a strong legal and moral responsibility to denounce acts of genocide. Fail= ing to denounce an unfolding genocide undermines the credibility of the U.N= . and the human rights system itself.=E2=80=9D

  • Apart from the U.S., every UN Security Council member said the famine in G= aza is a =E2=80=9Cman-made crisis.=E2=80=9D In a joint statement, 14 out of= 15 member states of the council called for an immediate, unconditional and= permanent ceasefire, the release of all hostages held by Hamas and other g= roups, a substantive surge of aid throughout Gaza, and for Israel to immedi= ately and unconditionally lift all restrictions on aid delivery. At the UN = Security Council, U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Shea dismissed the IPC=E2=80=99s = famine declaration in Gaza, accusing its authors of bias and claiming the r= eport lacked credibility, without providing evidence to refute its findings= .

Ceasefire Nego= tiations and Israeli News

  • White House special envoy Steve Witkoff has been working with Ja= red Kushner and Tony Blair on post-war Gaza plans, briefing Donal= d Trump on proposals for governance without Hamas and expanded humanitarian= aid amid deepening famine. Controversial elements of the plan, developed w= ith Israeli businessmen and financial modeling by the Boston Consulting Gro= up, reportedly included incentives to =E2=80=9Crelocate=E2=80=9D up to half= a million Palestinians, though Blair=E2=80=99s institute denied endorsing = the concept.

  • Hamas political bureau officials rejected Witkoff= =E2=80=99s claim that Hamas is blocking Gaza ceasefire talks, saying the st= atements ignore Israel=E2=80=99s systematic obstruction and echo Netanyahu= =E2=80=99s narrative. They noted Hamas had accepted a mediator-proposed dea= l, while Israel continues its military assault on Gaza City and ongoing civ= ilian massacres.

U.S. News

  • U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Israeli Foreign M= inister Gideon Sa=E2=80=99ar at the State Department, posing for photos bef= ore starting discussions without taking questions. The meeting coincides wi= th a White House-led session on post-war Gaza planning, following Sa=E2=80= =99ar=E2=80=99s recent claim at the UN that hunger in Gaza is a =E2=80=9Cli= e.=E2=80=9D

  • = Taylor Lorenz reports in Wired that a secretive Democratic influe= ncer network, funded by the Sixteen Thirty Fund and run through the nonprof= it arm of Good Influence, pays creators up to $8,000 a month under strict c= ontracts that bar disclosure and allow forced content deletions. The progra= m, called the Chorus Creator Incubator, has signed over 90 influencers with= a reach of 40 million+, drawing criticism for using the same opaque tactic= s Democrats have condemned in the past.

  • The Tru= mp administration fired Susan Monarez from her position as director of the = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday amid pressure place= d on the agency to change U.S. vaccine policy. Monarez=E2=80=99s lawyers sa= y Monarez had refused to resign, and prior to her firing, her lawyers had w= ritten in a public statement that =E2=80=9CWhen CDC Director Susan Monarez = refused to rubber-stamp unscientific, reckless directives and fire dedicate= d health experts, she chose protecting the public over serving a political = agenda. For that reason, she has been targeted.=E2=80=9D In response, Monar= ez was immediately fired by the White House, and other senior CDC officials= have since resigned in protest.

International News

  • U.S. envoy Tom Barrack cut short his visit to southern = Lebanon amid protests against Washington=E2=80=99s push to disarm Hezbollah= and outrage over his comments telling journalists to =E2=80=9Cact civilize= d.=E2=80=9D Demonstrations erupted in Khiam and Tyre, with Hezbollah suppor= ters denouncing U.S. policies, while Lebanon plans to present a disarmament= plan despite Hezbollah insisting Israel must first withdraw from Lebanese = territory.

  • The Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and several other regions of Ukraine we= re hit by a large-scale combined missile and drone assault overnight into T= hursday, Ukrainian officials reported. At least 18 people, including four c= hildren, were killed in the capital. Reports indicate that high-speed Geran= -3 drones equipped with jet engines were used in the attack. Kyiv Mayor Vit= ali Klitschko said in a post to Telegram that it was "a terrible night= " for the capital, reporting "many damaged buildings" across= five city districts.

    Venezuela=E2=80=99s Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino annou= nced the deployment of naval vessels and drones along the country= =E2=80=99s Caribbean coast in response to the U.S. sending warships and tho= usands of troops to the region, citing drug trafficking concerns and offeri= ng rewards for the capture of President Maduro and other officials. Caracas= condemned the U.S. actions as a threat to regional peace, mobilized militi= as and troops along the Colombian border, and dismantled drug-smuggling shi= pyards, while analysts suggest the military build-up is more posturing than= an imminent invasion.

  • Syrian state media reports that Israeli strikes o= n Damascus killed at least eight soldiers after Syrian troops dis= covered Israeli surveillance devices near Mount al-Manea. The escalation in= cluded multiple air raids, drone strikes, and a helicopter airdrop targetin= g military sites, prompting Damascus to condemn the attacks as a serious vi= olation of sovereignty.

  • The US has imposed punitive 50% tariffs on Indian import= s in response to New Delhi=E2=80=99s continued purchases of discounted Russ= ian oil, adding onto another 25% tariff already imposed on New Delhi. The m= ove significantly strains trade relations between the two countries and thr= eatens key sectors of the Indian economy such as textiles, gems, shrimp, an= d carpets. The move, seen by some as pressure on Russia via India, comes am= id stalled trade talks and deteriorating ties between U.S. and Indian leade= rs and could reduce Indian exports to the US by nearly 40%, risking hundred= s of thousands of jobs.

More from Drop Site

  • Israeli forces are pushing deeper into Gaza City with tanks, warp= lanes, and drones, leveling entire neighborhoods and forcing thousands to f= lee as famine and mass displacement worsen. Residents describe the assault = as an =E2=80=9Ceternal displacement=E2=80=9D and the final push to empty Ga= za=E2=80=99s largest city.

Read more from Abdel Qader = Sabbah here

  • Trump hosted Armenian PM Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev at the= White House on August 8, announcing a high-profile peace declaration and e= conomic agreements aimed at ending decades of conflict. Critics say the dea= l sidelines displaced Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians and fails to guarantee the= ir right of return, raising questions about justice and long-term stability= .

Read more from Emily Wilder here.<= /a>

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EXPOSED: The UN=E2=80=99s Hidden Power t= o Launch Military Action in Gaza








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Trump=E2=80= =99s most heinous crimes are related to foreign policy, most particularly his complicity in Israel=E2=80=99s genocide of the Palestinians as well as his continued arming of Ukraine to prolong the slaughter in its war with Russia. It now appears that Trump might be arranging to arm Kiev with US manufactured =E2=80=9Cextended range=E2=80=9D cruise missiles capable of= hitting targets deep inside Russia, to include both Moscow and St Petersburg. In a typically bizarre outburst Trump has opined that Ukraine is losing because it has been on =E2=80=9Cdefense=E2=80=9D and needs to shift its thinking of= taking the =E2=80=9Coffensive=E2=80=9D which the US will apparently assist. And Trump = continues to throw threats about sanctions and military action at virtually everyone in the world that he encounters. Can World War 3 be creeping ever nearer, replete with nuclear weapons on the front line? And then there is stink of unprovoked aggression elsewhere in world, to include the bombing of Iran and the recent dispatch of three warships toward Venezuela. Has either country threatened the United States? And relations with India and Brazil have also taken a dive due to pressure and insults from Washington. And there is always arch competitor China waiting in the wings for a shift of US military might in its direction while even little Greenland is not safe as Trump has stated that he is seeking to acquire it. Last week the Danish Foreign Ministry called in the US Ambassador to complain about Washington=E2=80=99s efforts to destabilize Greenland, which is a Dan= ish possession. How utterly appropriate is it that Trump wants to rename the Defense Department, calling it by its old name the War Department! Given Trump=E2=80=99s track record, astonishingly, while speaking at a Cabi= net meeting, Trump=E2=80=99s special envoy and business associate Steve Witkoff= actually said to the president and those assembled with regards to the upcoming Nobel Peace Prize: =E2=80=9CThere=E2=80=99s only one thing I wish for=E2=80=94tha= t the Nobel committee finally gets its act together and realizes that you are the single finest candidate since this Nobel award was ever talked about. Your success is game-changing out in the world today, and I hope everybody wakes up and realizes that.=E2=80=9D Good point Steve, so why stop there in your flattering of a lunkhead? Why not expand that accolade for the Trump War Department to go along with the already suggested renaming of the Kennedy Center in his honor as well as Dulles International Airport. And the Smithsonian is under the gun from Trump as it has displays on slavery that he disapproves of. Why not rename that too? President Trump does not seem aware that these are all public institutions and he has no right to slap his name on them to enhance his own ego. And look at the White House, where the Oval Office has been gilded, reflecting Trump=E2=80=99s bad and extremely tacky taste, turning i= t into a version of Mar-a-Lago. The portraits of preceding presidents have even been removed from sight to be replaced by even worse bad taste painting showing a warlike and aggressive President Trump in all his glory. Federal buildings in Washington also now feature huge banners hanging from their facades featuring Donald Trump=E2=80=99s scowling face. = And he has further messed with the so-called People=E2=80=99s House, where he is a temporary resident at best, by destroying the Rose Garden and building a $300 million dollar ballroom monstrosity that will dwarf the size of the original historic White House building. To be sure, Donald J Trump is an ignorant monster who will do his best to shred the US Constitution and destroy our republic before he is finished. Yes, he can do anything, including sending federal troops to occupy our cities on the pretext that there is too much crime going on. There is only one exception to the general impression that Trump is running around Washington and the country, when he is not playing golf with his business buddies, with a chain saw prepared to tear down and cut to pieces everything in his path. That exception is how he treats Israel, deferring constantly to the interests of the Jewish state and to the domestic exhortations by the Israel Lobby. The flow of US supplies weapons to Israel has been constant while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu carries out a genocide that seeks nothing less than the extermination of the Palestinian people. Last week, Israel slaughtered five international journalists and fifteen medical workers in a phased attack on a hospital that was one of the few health facilities remaining in Gaza. Trump and his choice ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee did nothing in response. Huckabee in fact has made it clear that he believes that Jews are =E2=80=9CChosen by Go= d=E2=80=9D and are free to do whatever they want to the helpless Palestinians. Once upon a time, US Ambassadors were chosen based on their ability to represent American interests. No longer under Donald Trump! Another recent ambassador tale linked personally to Trump comes from France, where Trump appointed his son-in-law=E2=80=99s father Charles Kushn= er to the ambassadorial post in Paris. Kushner is a convicted felon with only one thing in his favor, which is, of course, that he is inevitably Jewish and an Israel Firster in his political orientation. It is clear that Kushner shouldn=E2=80=99t even have this job to begin with=E2=80=94he spent two yea= rs in jail for tax evasion, illegal campaign donations to the Democratic Party, and witness tampering. He even attacked his own sister=E2=80=94who was a cooper= ating witness against him=E2=80=94by paying a sex worker to seduce her husband and film it for blackmail material. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie investigated Charles Kushner as district attorney and described the case as =E2=80=9Cone of the most loathsome, disgusting crimes=E2=80=9D = he=E2=80=99d ever encountered. Trump nevertheless pardoned Kushner in 2020 during his first term. Last week Ambassador Kushner outraged the French government by publicly denouncing what he chose to describe as the surging antisemitism in France. Kushner published =E2=80=9CA Letter to Emmanuel Macron=E2=80=9D in *The Wall Street Journal* = on August 24th. It included =E2=80=9CI write out of deep concern over the dramatic rise of antisemitism in France and the lack of sufficient action by your government to confront it. Antisemitism has long scarred French life, but it has exploded since Hamas=E2=80=99s barbaric assault on Oct. 7, 2023. Since then= , pro-Hamas extremists and radical activists have waged a campaign of intimidation and violence across Europe. In France, not a day passes without Jews assaulted in the street, synagogues or schools defaced, or Jewish-owned businesses vandalized. In today=E2=80=99s world, anti-Zionism = is antisemitism=E2=80=94plain and simple. President Trump and I have Jewish ch= ildren and share Jewish grandchildren. I know how he feels about antisemitism, as do all Americans=E2=80=A6. I urge you to act decisively: enforce hate-crime= laws without exception; ensure the safety of Jewish schools, synagogues and businesses, prosecute offenders to the fullest extent; and abandon steps that give legitimacy to Hamas and its allies.=E2=80=9D Perhaps not surprisingly, Kushner=E2=80=99s letter appeared a few days afte= r Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote something similar to Macron, condemning him for declaring that France would recognize Palestinian statehood. France refuted Kushner=E2=80=99s allegations immedia= tely and summoned him to appear before Macron and the French foreign ministry, but he did not show up and refused to apologize. =E2=80=9CFrance firmly refutes= these latest allegations,=E2=80=9D the foreign ministry had stated adding that =E2=80=9CThe Ambassador=E2=80=99s allegations are unacceptable.= =E2=80=9D Donald Trump and the US Senate, which approved the appointment of Kushner, might ask themselves why is the American ambassador to France more focused on lobbying on Israel=E2=80=99s behalf than protecting the interests of the= United States? It is a question that needs to be asked regarding both Kushner and Huckabee in Israel. A final story hopefully will make many readers upset over new evidence of just how deep the Israeli hooks are into the US government and all that pertains to it. Several American soldiers have gone on record reporting how they have been harassed and punished for sharing their views with friends criticizing the hideous slaughter of the Palestinians taking place in Gaza. It has been observed that First Amendment free speech only exists in the United States as long as one is not criticizing Israel, but it is disgusting to see that soldiers who have sworn an oath to uphold the Constitution are themselves being denied fundamental civil rights. One of the soldiers, Jonathan Estridge, an army sergeant with twenty years of service, was summoned into an officer=E2=80=99s room and advised that he was being investigated as a t= hreat to national security because he had posted on social media criticism of Israel. As he observed, he was being denied the right to criticize a foreign nation=E2=80=99s policies solely because that nation happens to be = Israel. A second soldier who has been subjected to punishment was a Green Beret who is part of the elite Special Forces parachute team. He described how he was phone called by an officer and told that he could no longer be a member of the group because he had spoken out against Israel. He was interviewed regarding his claims by Greyzone journalist Max Blumenthal. And if that is not enough to shock you, how about the latest news from a Federal Judge Trevor McFadden here in the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave . McFadden, who presides over a Washington DC court, has ruled that burning a US flag is free speech but burning an Israeli flag is =E2=80=9Cracial discrimination=E2=80=9D which is a =E2=80=9Chate crime.=E2=80=9D The judge = declared that the Star of David on Israel=E2=80=99s flag represents a =E2=80=9Cracial heritage,=E2= =80=9D elevating a political symbol of a foreign state into a sacred racial identity =E2=80=94= putting it on the same level as America=E2=80=99s civil rights laws. The decision m= eans that what would normally be political protest against Israel can now be branded as racism in the United States and made illegal, free speech and the First Amendment be damned. Ironically, Donald Trump has just signed an executive order making conviction for US flag burning a crime that automatically mandates one year in prison. It seems the various components of the US government just cannot agree on anything beyond protecting Israel and its estimable Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. *Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation (Federal ID Number #52-1739023) that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is councilforthenationalinterest.org , address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is **inform@cnionline.org* *.* --000000000000d3b79b063d6ec93f Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Last week Donald J Trump declared that as presid= ent of the United States, he believes he has the =E2=80=9Cright to do anything I want to do.=E2=80=9D The assertion exp= lains a lot=20 in terms of how an unhinged Trump regards himself and his office and it=20 should serve as a warning that more ego driven inanity is yet to come.=20 Trump=E2=80=99s most heinous crimes are related to foreign policy, most=20 particularly his complicity in Israel=E2=80=99s genocide of the Palestinian= s as=20 well as his continued arming of Ukraine to prolong the slaughter in its=20 war with Russia. It now appears that Trump might be arranging t= o arm Kiev with US manufactured =E2=80=9Cextended range=E2=80=9D cruise missiles capa= ble of=20 hitting targets deep inside Russia, to include both Moscow and St=20 Petersburg. In a typically bizarre outburst Trump has opined that=20 Ukraine is losing because it has been on =E2=80=9Cdefense=E2=80=9D and need= s to shift=20 its thinking of taking the =E2=80=9Coffensive=E2=80=9D which the US will ap= parently=20 assist. And Trump continues to throw threats about sanctions and=20 military action at virtually everyone in the world that he encounters.=20 Can World War 3 be creeping ever nearer, replete with nuclear weapons on the front line?

And=20 then there is stink of unprovoked aggression elsewhere in world, to=20 include the bombing of Iran and the recent dispatch of three warships=20 toward Venezuela. Has either country threatened the United States? And=20 relations with India and Brazil have also taken a dive due to pressure=20 and insults from Washington. And there is always arch competitor China=20 waiting in the wings for a shift of US military might in its direction=20 while even little Greenland is not safe as Trump has stated that he is=20 seeking to acquire it. Last week the Danish Foreign Ministry called in=20 the US Ambassador to complain about W= ashington=E2=80=99s efforts to destabilize Greenland, which is a Danish pos= session. How utterly appropriate is it that Trump wants to rename the = Defense Department, calling it by its old name the War Department!

Given Trump=E2=80=99s track record, astonishingly, while speaking at a Cabinet= =20 meeting, Trump=E2=80=99s special envoy and business associate Steve Witkoff= actually said to the president and those assembled with regards to the upcoming Nobel Peace Prize: =E2=80=9CThere=E2=80=99s only one thing I wish for=E2=80=94th= at the Nobel=20 committee finally gets its act together and realizes that you are the=20 single finest candidate since this Nobel award was ever talked about.=20 Your success is game-changing out in the world today, and I hope=20 everybody wakes up and realizes that.=E2=80=9D

Good point Steve, so why stop there in your flattering of a lunkhead? Why=20 not expand that accolade for the Trump War Department to go along with=20 the already suggested renaming of the Kennedy Center in his honor as=20 well as Dulles International Airport. And the Smithsonian is under the=20 gun from Trump as it has displays on slavery that he disapproves of. Why not rename that too? President Trump does not seem aware that these are all public institutions and he has no right to slap his name on them to enhance his own ego. And look at the White House, where the Oval Office has been gilded, reflecting Trump=E2=80=99s bad and extremely tacky taste,= =20 turning it into a version of Mar-a-Lago. The portraits of preceding=20 presidents have even been removed from sight to be replaced by even=20 worse bad taste painting showing a warlike and aggressive President=20 Trump in all his glory. Federal buildings in Washington also now feature huge banners hanging from their facades featuring Donald Trump=E2=80=99s scowling face.= And=20 he has further messed with the so-called People=E2=80=99s House, where he i= s a=20 temporary resident at best, by destroying the Rose Garden and building a $300 million dollar ballroom monstrosity that will dwarf the size of=20 the original historic White House building.

To be sure, Donald J Trump is an ignorant monster who will do his best to=20 shred the US Constitution and destroy our republic before he is=20 finished. Yes, he can do anything, including sending federal troops to=20 occupy our cities on the pretext that there is too much crime going on.

There is only one exception to the general impression that Trump is running=20 around Washington and the country, when he is not playing golf with his=20 business buddies, with a chain saw prepared to tear down and cut to=20 pieces everything in his path. That exception is how he treats Israel,=20 deferring constantly to the interests of the Jewish state and to the=20 domestic exhortations by the Israel Lobby. The flow of US supplies=20 weapons to Israel has been constant while Prime Minister Benjamin=20 Netanyahu carries out a genocide that seeks nothing less than the=20 extermination of the Palestinian people. Last week, Israel slaughtered=20 five international journalists and fifteen medical workers in a phased=20 attack on a hospital that was one of the few health facilities remaining in Gaza. Trump and his choice ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee did=20 nothing in response. Huckabee in fact has made it clear that he believes that Jews are =E2=80=9CChosen by God=E2=80=9D and are free to do whatever = they want to=20 the helpless Palestinians. Once upon a time, US Ambassadors were chosen=20 based on their ability to represent American interests. No longer under=20 Donald Trump!

Another recent ambassador tale linked personally to Trump comes from France,=20 where Trump appointed his son-in-law=E2=80=99s father Charles Kushner to th= e=20 ambassadorial post in Paris. Kushner is a convicted felon with only one=20 thing in his favor, which is, of course, that he is inevitably Jewish=20 and an Israel Firster in his political orientation. It is clear that=20 Kushner shouldn=E2=80=99t even have this job to begin with=E2=80=94he spent= two years in jail for tax evasion, illegal campaign donations to the Democratic=20 Party, and witness tampering. He even attacked his own sister=E2=80=94who w= as a=20 cooperating witness against him=E2=80=94by paying a sex wor= ker to seduce her husband and film it for blackmail material. Former New Jersey Governor Chris=20 Christie investigated Charles Kushner as district attorney and described the case as =E2=80=9Cone of the most loathsome, disgusting crimes=E2=80=9D= he=E2=80=99d ever=20 encountered. Trump nevertheless=20 pardoned Kushner in 2020 during his first term.

Last week Ambassador Kushner published= =E2=80=9CA Letter to Emmanuel Macron=E2=80=9D in The Wall Street Journa= l on August 24th. It included =E2=80=9CI write out of deep concern over the dramatic rise o= f=20 antisemitism in France and the lack of sufficient action by your=20 government to confront it. Antisemitism has long scarred French life,=20 but it has exploded since Hamas=E2=80=99s barbaric assault on Oct. 7, 2023.= =20 Since then, pro-Hamas extremists and radical activists have waged a=20 campaign of intimidation and violence across Europe. In France, not a=20 day passes without Jews assaulted in the street, synagogues or schools=20 defaced, or Jewish-owned businesses vandalized. In today=E2=80=99s world,= =20 anti-Zionism is antisemitism=E2=80=94plain and simple. President Trump and = I=20 have Jewish children and share Jewish grandchildren. I know how he feels about antisemitism, as do all Americans=E2=80=A6. I urge you to act decisi= vely: enforce hate-crime laws without exception; ensure the safety of Jewish=20 schools, synagogues and businesses, prosecute offenders to the fullest=20 extent; and abandon steps that give legitimacy to Hamas and its allies.=E2= =80=9D

Perhaps not surprisingly, Kushner=E2=80=99s letter appeared a few days after Israe= li=20 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote something similar to Macron,=20 condemning him for declaring that France would recognize Palestinian=20 statehood. France refuted Kushner=E2=80=99s allegations immediately and sum= moned him to appear before Macron and the French foreign ministry, but he did not show up and refused to apologize. =E2=80=9CFrance firmly refutes these= =20 latest allegations,=E2=80=9D the foreign ministry had stated adding that =E2=80=9CThe Ambassador=E2=80=99s alleg= ations are unacceptable.=E2=80=9D

Donald Trump and the US Senate, which approved the appointment of Kushner,=20 might ask themselves why is the American ambassador to France more=20 focused on lobbying on Israel=E2=80=99s behalf than protecting the interest= s of=20 the United States? It is a question that needs to be asked regarding=20 both Kushner and Huckabee in Israel.

A=20 final story hopefully will make many readers upset over new evidence of=20 just how deep the Israeli hooks are into the US government and all that=20 pertains to it. Several American soldiers have gone on record reporting=20 how they have been harassed and punished for sharing their views with=20 friends criticizing the hideous slaughter of the Palestinians taking=20 place in Gaza. It has been observed that First Amendment free speech=20 only exists in the United States as long as one is not criticizing=20 Israel, but it is disgusting to see that soldiers who have sworn an oath to uphold the Constitution are themselves being denied fundamental=20 civil rights.

One of the soldiers, Jonathan Estridge, an army sergeant with twenty y= ears of service, was summoned into an officer=E2=80=99s room and advised that he was being investigated as a= =20 threat to national security because he had posted on social media=20 criticism of Israel. As he observed, he was being denied the right to=20 criticize a foreign nation=E2=80=99s policies solely because that nation ha= ppens to be Israel. A second soldier who has been subjected to punishment was a Green Beret who is part of the elite Special Forces parachute team.=20 He described how he was phone called by an officer and told that he=20 could no longer be a member of the group because he had spoken out=20 against Israel. He was interviewed regardi= ng his claims by Greyzone journalist Max Blumenthal.

And if that is not enough to shock you, how about the latest news from= a Federal Judge Trevor McFadden here in the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. McFadden, who presides over a Washington DC court, has ruled that=20 burning a US flag is free speech but burning an Israeli flag is =E2=80=9Cra= cial=20 discrimination=E2=80=9D which is a =E2=80=9Chate crime.=E2=80=9D The judge= declared that the=20 Star of David on Israel=E2=80=99s flag represents a =E2=80=9Cracial heritag= e,=E2=80=9D elevating a political symbol of a foreign state into a sacred racial identity =E2=80= =94=20 putting it on the same level as America=E2=80=99s civil rights laws. The=20 decision means that what would normally be political protest against=20 Israel can now be branded as racism in the United States and made=20 illegal, free speech and the First Amendment be damned. Ironically,=20 Donald Trump has just signed an executive order making conviction for US flag burning a crime that automatically mandates one year in prison. It seems the various=20 components of the US government just cannot agree on anything beyond=20 protecting Israel and its estimable Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the=20 National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation=20 (Federal ID Number #52-1739023) that seeks a more interests-based U.S.=20 foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is councilforthenationalinterest.org, addre= ss is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is infor= m@cnionline.org.



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The number of customers visiting the skincare shop she works in has halved. =E2=80=9CI=E2=80=99ve never seen the economy like this, not even in 2008,= =E2=80=9D she says. =E2=80=9CPeople used to come to Las Vegas and spend money. Now they=E2=80= =99re scared to spend.=E2=80=9D Vegas has always been a place of extravagance, a luxury destination where tourists can embrace the carefree hedonism of gambling, boozing and spending. But now Sin City tourism is in a slump. Visitor numbers fell by 11.3pc year-on-year in June and were down by 7.3pc across the first six months of the year. In percentage terms, that is equivalent to the drop recorded over the entirety of the two-year period during the global recession. As hotel revenues fall, restaurant workers get their hours cut and tattoo artists report huge falls in their income, the city is fast becoming the canary in the coal mine for the wider US economy. Las Vegas=E2=80=99s tourism industry is American consumerism in its purest = form. Its decline is a clear warning sign that Donald Trump=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Cec= onomic revolution=E2=80=9D of a global trade war and an immigration crackdown is now hitting the ultimate engine of American GDP =E2=80=93 consumer spending. =E2=80=98I=E2=80=99ve never seen it this empty=E2=80=99 Midweek on the Las Vegas Strip, nowhere feels busy. Just a third of the blackjack tables at the Flamingo, one of the city=E2=80=99s famous hotel ca= sinos, are occupied. Outside, there is barely any traffic. Swanton says her drive to work used to take 20 minutes. Now it takes nine. [image: Las Vegas strip] The Las Vegas Strip feels nowhere near as busy =E2=80=9CThere were so many machines open in the casino last night,=E2=80= =9D says Heather Harter, 54, who is staying at the Excalibur Hotel and Casino. =E2=80=9CI=E2= =80=99ve never seen it this empty and I=E2=80=99ve been coming here since my kids were lit= tle.=E2=80=9D Tom Connolly, 70, another Las Vegas regular who is staying at the New York-New York Hotel and Casino says: =E2=80=9CThe reason we came was my wif= e got offered four free nights, $125 (=C2=A392) in food and beverage credit and $= 150 in casino credit. =E2=80=9CThe hotel solicited us to come out here. To me, that suggests they= need the business.=E2=80=9D Figures from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) show hotel occupancy was down by nearly a tenth year-on-year in June. As hotels cut prices, revenues per room fell by an even steeper 13.8pc. Even the city=E2=80=99s biggest hotel brands are taking a hit. Caesars Entertainment, which runs nine properties in Las Vegas, including Caesars Palace, reported an 8pc drop in its Las Vegas earnings between April and June. MGM Resorts, which operates 12 hotels on the Strip, similarly reported a 9pc fall in second quarter Las Vegas earnings. Bill Hornbuckle, its chief executive, said this was primarily because of room remodelling at the flagship MGM Grand hotel, but it also reflected lower midweek bookings at its cheaper properties, the Excalibur and the Luxor. Part of the decline in visitors is because of a fall in international numbers. Canadians, for one, are increasingly steering clear of the US in the wake of Trump=E2=80=99s tariffs and his message that Canada should become America=E2=80=99s 51st state. But international visitors make up only 12pc of Las Vegas=E2=80=99 visitors= . Steve Hill, chief executive of the LVCVA, says this is primarily a story about Americans. =E2=80=9CThe reduction that we=E2=80=99ve seen is largely domestic, and at = its core is a concern that consumers have about the economy, about their financial situation and their jobs,=E2=80=9D says Hill. Canary in the coal mine The Vegas downturn is a hint of what is really going on under the surface of the wider US economy. Mike PeQueen, managing director at Hightower Las Vegas, a wealth management firm, says: =E2=80=9CLas Vegas has a fair reputation as a canary in the coa= l mine for greater US discretionary spending.=E2=80=9D Trump=E2=80=99s radical economic agenda, which has included raising tariffs= on imports to their highest level since the 1930s and widespread immigrant deportations, has triggered major downgrades in growth forecasts, sent consumer confidence plunging and raised new fears about inflation. [image: Screenshot 2025-08-28 at 2.14.23=E2=80=AFpm.png] Yssa Dror, who works in the skincare shop with Swanton, said: =E2=80=9CPeop= le are afraid to spend because they don=E2=80=99t know what=E2=80=99s going to hap= pen next.=E2=80=9D A massive downward revision in national jobs statistics earlier this month was one of the first signs that cracks are emerging in the economy for everyday Americans. In Vegas, the storm has already hit. In the first six months of the year, Las Vegas had 1.5 million fewer visitors compared to the same period last year. Vegas is often characterised as a boom and bust town, but the reality is that in the five decades since LVCVA data began in 1970, its visitor numbers have been on a steady upward trajectory. During this time, the annual total has multiplied more than six times over. Ominously, there have only been three years when Las Vegas has seen visitor numbers drop by more than a million, or by more than 3pc, in a single year: the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, and the 2020 pandemic. In other words, for half a century, the only major drops that Las Vegas has seen in visitor numbers have been driven by national crises. But that was until President Trump came to power. =E2=80=9CThis theme of an economic slowdown permeates, frankly, almost ever= y discussion that we have with clients,=E2=80=9D says Jeremy Aguero, of Appli= ed Analysis, a research firm in Las Vegas. The drop-off in visitors is concentrated at the lower end of the price scale, says Hill, from the LVCVA. =E2=80=9CThe core of the concern here is with folks who have to live on a b= udget. They need disposable income in order to be able to come,=E2=80=9D he added. Those who are still coming also seem to have less spare cash. The share of visitors staying with friends and family instead of hotels has nearly doubled from 7pc to 13pc, according to preliminary data from Hill=E2=80=99s= outfit. There are signs investors have become more cautious, too. The billionaire Tilman Fertitta, now Trump=E2=80=99s ambassador to Italy, l= ast month confirmed that he had shelved plans to develop a new Las Vegas hotel-casino project, tentatively called Centre Strip, which would have boasted 2,400 rooms. For now, the site is a parking lot. Too scared to visit Gloria Valdez, 38, who works as a hostess at The D, a downtown hotel-casino, says restaurant reservations where she works have plunged by two thirds and customers are becoming far more frugal. =E2=80=9CYou used to see the tables full of appetisers, salads, drinks, a l= ot of extras because people wanted to try all of the food,=E2=80=9D she says. =E2= =80=9CNow you see a couple sharing one meal.=E2=80=9D Earlier this year, Valdez=E2=80=99s hours were cut from five days per week = to four. =E2=80=9CI=E2=80=99m a single mom, I have two kids. I=E2=80=99m so worried = about losing my job.=E2=80=9D Vegas customers are not just concerned about money they are also concerned about Trump=E2=80=99s immigration crackdown. Trump was elected on a promise to make mass deportations. He has directed Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE) to make a wave of immigration raids across the country, a policy that has hit Nevada=E2=80=99s neighbour Califo= rnia particularly hard. America=E2=80=99s 12 million or so undocumented immigrants =E2=80=93 a subs= tantial part of the population =E2=80=93 are now living in fear. =E2=80=9CWe=E2=80=99ve heard anecdotally that some of our customers are con= cerned about staying in hotels,=E2=80=9D says Hill. =E2=80=9CThey=E2=80=99re worried abo= ut raids, frankly.=E2=80=9D Valdez notes a particularly large drop-off in Latino customers. =E2=80=9CTh= ey=E2=80=99re scared to get on planes.=E2=80=9D Whatever the causes, the downturn in Las Vegas tourism will have ripple effects across the city=E2=80=99s economy. Workers like Valdez are the lifeblood of the local economy, with thousands of workers employed to serve tourists in the regional diners, bars and casinos. Even tattoo parlours are suffering. Wayne Fields, 47, a tattoo artist at Vegas Ink, said: =E2=80=9CLas Vegas ha= s always been good until this year. In the last couple of months, my pay has dropped by 70pc.=E2=80=9D Normally, Fields would earn between $8,000 and $15,000 per month. In July, he earned just $4,000. =E2=80=9CI=E2=80=99m starting to dip into investment= s to pay bills to stay above water. I=E2=80=99m even contemplating taking a second job,=E2= =80=9D he says. This may all be concerning news for the president who Fields voted for and Las Vegas itself, which matters to deeply to Trump. The president and his family have a stake here in the form of the golden Trump International Hotel Las Vegas, which towers above the Strip. But more importantly, Nevada, which voted for Joe Biden in 2020, swung red in 2024 by a slim margin. The state was a clear priority for Trump on his election campaign, when he repeated a story about how a Nevada waitress gave him the idea to scrap tax on tips. Within days of his inauguration as president, Trump visited Las Vegas for the first rally of his second term to reiterate his promise. =E2=80=9CWe=E2= =80=99re going to get it for you =E2=80=94 no tax on tips.=E2=80=9D He signed the policy i= nto law in July as part of his One Big Beautiful Bill. But now Trump could be undoing his own efforts to woo the state=E2=80=99s hospitality workers. Ted Pappageorge, secretary-treasurer of Las Vegas=E2=80=99s 60,000-member C= ulinary Workers Union, says: =E2=80=9CIf you don=E2=80=99t have those tips, if your= tips are reduced, then the tax credit doesn=E2=80=99t matter. =E2=80=9CUnless there=E2=80=99s a course correction here, we could be in fo= r some significant lay-offs. The Trump slump is here in Vegas.=E2=80=9D --000000000000a8f47e063d6f05a4 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
h= ttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/15/the-slow-death-of-sin-city/<= /a>

Trump chaos triggers= decline of Las Vegas

The slump in Sin City=E2=80=99s tourism industry raises fea= rs over the health of America=E2=80=99s economy

<= span style=3D"background-repeat:no-repeat;box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;pad= ding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;display:flex;line-height:17px;width:auto">= Melissa LawfordUS Economics Correspondent3D"Melissa

15 August 2025=C2=A0

In the 20 years that Erika Swanton = has worked in retail on the=C2=A0Las Vegas Stri= p, she has never known summer business to be so slow.

The number of customers visiting the skincare shop she works in has halved. =E2=80=9CI=E2=80=99ve never seen the economy like this, not even in 2008,= =E2=80=9D she says.

=E2=80=9CPeople used to come to Las Vegas and spend money. Now they= =E2=80=99re scared to spend.=E2=80=9D

Vegas has always been a place of extravagance, a luxury destination where=20 tourists can embrace the carefree hedonism of gambling, boozing and=20 spending.

But = now Sin City tourism is in a slump.

Visitor numbers fell by 11.3pc year-on-year in June and were down by 7.3pc=20 across the first six months of the year. In percentage terms, that is=20 equivalent to the drop recorded over the entirety of the two-year period during the global recession.

As hotel revenues fall, restaurant workers get their hours cut and tattoo=20 artists report huge falls in their income, the city is fast becoming the canary in the coal mine for the wider US economy.

Las Vegas=E2=80=99s tourism industry i= s American consumerism in its purest form. Its decline is a clear warning s= ign that=C2=A0Donald Trump=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Ceconomic revolution=E2=80=9D= =C2=A0of a global trade war and an immigration crackdown i= s now hitting the ultimate engine of American GDP =E2=80=93 consumer spendi= ng.

=E2=80=98I=E2=80=99ve never seen i= t this empty=E2=80=99


Midweek on the Las Vegas Strip, nowhere feels busy. Just a third of the=20 blackjack tables at the Flamingo, one of the city=E2=80=99s famous hotel=20 casinos, are occupied. Outside, there is barely any traffic. Swanton=20 says her drive to work used to take 20 minutes. Now it takes nine.

= 3D"Las
<= span style=3D"background-repeat:no-repeat;box-sizing:inherit;margin:0px;pad= ding:0px;vertical-align:baseline">The Las Vegas Strip feels nowhere near as= busy

=E2=80=9CThere were so many machines open in the casino last night,=E2=80=9D says Heather= =20 Harter, 54, who is staying at the Excalibur Hotel and Casino. =E2=80=9CI=E2= =80=99ve=20 never seen it this empty and I=E2=80=99ve been coming here since my kids we= re=20 little.=E2=80=9D

Tom Connolly, 70, another Las Vegas regular who is staying at the New=20 York-New York Hotel and Casino says: =E2=80=9CThe reason we came was my wif= e got offered four free nights, $125 (=C2=A392) in food and beverage credit and= =20 $150 in casino credit.

=E2=80=9CThe hotel solicited us to come out here. To me, that sugg= ests they need the business.=E2=80=9D

Figures from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) show hotel occupancy was down by nearly a tenth year-on-year in June. As hotels=20 cut prices, revenues per room fell by an even steeper 13.8pc.

Even the city=E2=80=99s biggest hotel brands are taking a hit. Caesars=20 Entertainment, which runs nine properties in Las Vegas, including=20 Caesars Palace, reported an 8pc drop in its Las Vegas earnings between=20 April and June.

Bill Hornbuckle, its chief executive, said this was primarily because of=20 room remodelling at the flagship MGM Grand hotel, but it also reflected=20 lower midweek bookings at its cheaper properties, the Excalibur and the=20 Luxor.

Part of the decline in visitors is because of a fall in international=20 numbers. Canadians, for one, are increasingly steering clear of the US=20 in the wake of=C2=A0Trump=E2=80=99s tariffs=C2=A0and his message that Canada should become America=E2=80=99s 51st stat= e.

But international visitors make up only 12pc of Las Vegas=E2=80=99 visitors. S= teve=20 Hill, chief executive of the LVCVA, says this is primarily a story about Americans.

=E2=80=9CThe reduction that we=E2=80=99ve seen is largely domestic, and at its core is = a=20 concern that consumers have about the economy, about their financial=20 situation and their jobs,=E2=80=9D says Hill.

Canary in the coal mine

The Vegas downturn is a hint of what is really going on = under the surface of the wider US economy.

Mike PeQueen, managing director at Hightower Las Vegas, a wealth management=20 firm, says: =E2=80=9CLas Vegas has a fair reputation as a canary in the coa= l=20 mine for greater US discretionary spending.=E2=80=9D

Trump=E2=80=99s radical economic agenda, which has included raising tariffs on imports=20 to their highest level since the 1930s and widespread immigrant=20 deportations, has triggered major downgrades in growth forecasts, sent=20 consumer confidence plunging and raised new fears about inflation.


3D"Screenshot


Y= ssa Dror, who works in the skincare shop with Swanton, said: =E2=80=9CPeople a= re=20 afraid to spend because they don=E2=80=99t know what=E2=80=99s going to hap= pen next.=E2=80=9D

A massive downward revision in national jobs statistics earlier this=20 month was one of the first signs that cracks are emerging in the economy for everyday Americans.

In Vegas, the storm has already hit. In the first six months of the year,=20 Las Vegas had 1.5 million fewer visitors compared to the same period=20 last year.

Veg= as is often characterised as a boom and bust town, but the reality is that in the five decades since LVCVA data began in 1970, its visitor numbers have been on a steady upward trajectory. During this time, the annual=20 total has multiplied more than six times over.

Ominously, there have only been three years when Las Vegas has seen visitor=20 numbers drop by more than a million, or by more than 3pc, in a single=20 year: the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, and the 2020 pandemic.

In other words, for half a century, the only major drops that Las Vegas=20 has seen in visitor numbers have been driven by national crises. But=20 that was until President Trump came to power.

=E2=80=9CThis theme of an economic slowdown permeates, frankly, almost every=20 discussion that we have with clients,=E2=80=9D says Jeremy Aguero, of Appli= ed=20 Analysis, a research firm in Las Vegas.

The drop-off in visitors is concentrated at the l= ower end of the price scale, says Hill, from the LVCVA.

=E2=80=9CThe core of the concern here is with folks who have to live on a budget.=20 They need disposable income in order to be able to come,=E2=80=9D he added.=

Those who are still coming also seem to have less spare cash. The share of=20 visitors staying with friends and family instead of hotels has nearly=20 doubled from 7pc to 13pc, according to preliminary data from Hill=E2=80=99s= =20 outfit.

There = are signs investors have become more cautious, too.

The billionaire Tilman Fertitta, now Trump=E2=80=99s ambassador to Italy, last= =20 month confirmed that he had shelved plans to develop a new Las Vegas=20 hotel-casino project, tentatively called Centre Strip, which would have=20 boasted 2,400 rooms. For now, the site is a parking lot.

Too scared to visit

Gloria Valdez, 38, who works as a hostess at The D, a downtown hotel-casino,=20 says restaurant reservations where she works have plunged by two thirds=20 and customers are becoming far more frugal.

=E2=80=9CYou used to see the tables full of appetisers, salads, drinks, a lot of=20 extras because people wanted to try all of the food,=E2=80=9D she says. =E2= =80=9CNow you see a couple sharing one meal.=E2=80=9D

Earlier this year, Valdez=E2=80=99s hours were cut from five days per week to four= .=20 =E2=80=9CI=E2=80=99m a single mom, I have two kids. I=E2=80=99m so worried = about losing my job.=E2=80=9D

Vegas customers are not just concerned about money they are= also concerned about Trump=E2=80=99s immigration crackdown.

Trump was elected on a promise to make mass deportations. He has directed=20 Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE) to make a wave of immigration=20 raids across the country, a policy that has hit Nevada=E2=80=99s neighbour= =20 California particularly hard.

America=E2=80=99s 12 million or so undocumented immigrants = =E2=80=93 a substantial part of the population =E2=80=93 are now living in = fear.

=E2=80= =9CWe=E2=80=99ve heard anecdotally that some of our customers are concerned about=20 staying in hotels,=E2=80=9D says Hill. =E2=80=9CThey=E2=80=99re worried abo= ut raids, frankly.=E2=80=9D

Valdez notes a particularly large drop-off in Latino customer= s. =E2=80=9CThey=E2=80=99re scared to get on planes.=E2=80=9D

Whatever the causes, the = downturn in Las Vegas tourism will have ripple effects across the city=E2= =80=99s economy.

Workers like Valdez are the lifeblood of the local economy, with thousands of=20 workers employed to serve tourists in the regional diners, bars and=20 casinos. Even tattoo parlours are suffering.

Wayne Fields, 47, a tattoo artist at Vegas Ink, said: =E2=80=9CLas Vegas has alw= ays=20 been good until this year. In the last couple of months, my pay has=20 dropped by 70pc.=E2=80=9D

Normally, Fields would earn between $8,000 and $15,000 per month. In July, he=20 earned just $4,000. =E2=80=9CI=E2=80=99m starting to dip into investments t= o pay bills=20 to stay above water. I=E2=80=99m even contemplating taking a second job,=E2= =80=9D he=20 says.

This may= all be concerning news for the president who Fields voted for and Las Vega= s itself, which matters to deeply to Trump.=C2=A0

The president and his family have a stake here in the form of the golden=20 Trump International Hotel Las Vegas, which towers above the Strip.

But more importantly, Nevada, which vote= d for Joe Biden in 2020, swung red in 2024 by a slim margin.

The state was a clear priority for Trump on his election campaign, when he=20 repeated a story about how a Nevada waitress gave him the idea to scrap=20 tax on tips.

W= ithin days of his inauguration as president, Trump visited Las Vegas for the=20 first rally of his second term to reiterate his promise. =E2=80=9CWe=E2=80= =99re going to get it for you =E2=80=94 no tax on tips.=E2=80=9D He signed the policy int= o law in July as part of his One Big Beautiful Bill.

But now Trump could be undoing his own efforts to= woo the state=E2=80=99s hospitality workers.

Ted Pappageorge, secretary-treasurer of Las Vegas=E2=80=99s 60,000-member Culi= nary=20 Workers Union, says: =E2=80=9CIf you don=E2=80=99t have those tips, if your= tips are=20 reduced, then the tax credit doesn=E2=80=99t matter.

=E2=80=9CUnless there=E2=80=99s a co= urse correction here, we could be in for some significant lay-offs. The Tru= mp slump is here in Vegas.=E2=80=9D


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https://aleteia.org/2025/08/23/cardinal-zuppi-reads-names-of-every-child-killed-in-gaza-conflict/ Cardinal Zuppi reads names of every child killed in Gaza conflict MAJDI FATHI | NurPhoto via AFP Palestinian children sit outside their tents in Gaza City, Palestine, on August 11, 2025. Christine Rousselle - published on 08/23/25 Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, president of the Italian Bishops' Conference, led a several-hour prayer vigil on the eve of the Feast of the Assumption. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi led a prayer vigil on August 14 honoring the thousands of children killed by Hamas and Israel since the start of the war in Gaza on October 7, 2023. "We pronounce their names one by one," Cardinal Zuppi said at the beginning of the vigil. The vigil was held on the eve of the Solemnity of the Assumption of Mary. "They ask us all to commit ourselves to finding or pursuing the path to peace with greater intelligence and passion, starting with a ceasefire and offering the conditions for doing so, from the release of hostages to not taking an entire people hostage," he said. The cardinal and others then read the names and ages of the 16 Israeli children killed by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and the 12,211 Palestinian children who have been killed since the war began. The document was 469 pages, and the names of the Palestinian children were acquired from the Gaza Ministry of Health. The prayer vigil was held in Marzabotto, a town in the Metropolitan City of Bologna. Cardinal Zuppi is the archbishop of Bologna. The town is famous because of a wartime massacre. During World War II, Nazi troops massacred 1,830 civilians in the town in what is known as the "Marzabotto massacre" or the "massacre of Monte Sole." It was the deadliest mass shooting in Italian history. The vigil itself was organized by a monastery that tends to the maintenance of the area. "This is to remember, to pay attention, from this place which is a place of suffering and that has since always been a place to remember all victims," said Cardinal Zuppi. Famine declared in Gaza City On Friday, August 22, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) declared, for the first time, that famine conditions are present in Gaza City. For a famine to be declared, three conditions have to be met, says the IPC's website . These are "at least 20% of households facing an extreme lack of food, at least 30% of children suffering from acute malnutrition, and two people for every 10,000 dying each day due to outright starvation or to the interaction of malnutrition and disease." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the report an "outright lie" and denied that a famine is occurring in Gaza City. --000000000000d0bc37063d6f0ebb Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Cardinal Zuppi reads names= of every child killed in Gaza conflict

3D""

MAJDI FATHI | NurPhoto v= ia AFP

Palestinian child= ren sit outside their tents in Gaza City, Palestine, on August 11, 2025.

Chris= tine Rousselle - published on 08/23/25

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, president of the Italian Bishops' Conference, led a=20 several-hour prayer vigil on the eve of the Feast of the Assumption.=

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi led a prayer vigil on August 14 honoring the=20 thousands of children killed by Hamas and Israel since the start of the=20 war in Gaza on October 7, 2023.

"We pronounce their names one by one," Cardinal Zuppi said at = the=20 beginning of the vigil. The vigil was held on the eve of the Solemnity=20 of the Assumption of Mary.

"They ask us all to commit ourselves to finding or pursuing the pat= h=20 to peace with greater intelligence and passion, starting with a=20 ceasefire and offering the conditions for doing so, from the release of=20 hostages to not taking an entire people hostage," he said.

The cardinal and others then read the names and ages of the 16=20 Israeli children killed by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and the=20 12,211=C2=A0Palestinian children who have been killed since the war began. =

The document was 469 pages, and the names of the Palestinian children we= re acquired from the Gaza Ministry of Health.

The prayer vigil was held in Marzabotto, a town in the Metropolitan=20 City of Bologna. Cardinal Zuppi is the archbishop of Bologna.

The town is famous because of a wartime massacre. During World War=20 II, Nazi troops massacred 1,830 civilians in the town in what is known=20 as the "Marzabotto massacre" or the "massacre of Monte Sole.= " It was the deadliest mass shooting in Italian history.

The vigil itself was organized by a monastery that tends to the maintena= nce of the area.

"This is to remember, to pay attention, from this place which is a= =20 place of suffering and that has since always been a place to remember=20 all victims," said Cardinal Zuppi.

Famine declar= ed in Gaza City

On Friday, August 22, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification = (IPC) declared, for the first time, that famine conditions are present in Gaza City. =

For a famine to be declared, three conditions have to be met, says the <= a href=3D"https://www.ipcinfo.org/famine-facts/" title=3D"IPC's website= ">IPC's website.

These are "at least 20% of households facing an extreme lack of foo= d, at least 30% of children suffering from acute malnutrition, and two=20 people for every 10,000 dying each day due to outright starvation or to=20 the interaction of malnutrition and disease."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the report an=20 "outright lie" and denied that a famine is occurring in Gaza City= .



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It Wasn= =E2=80=99t His Washington Meeting With Trump. The Lee-Ishiba meeting is further evidence of a transformational shift in progressive foreign policy in Seoul. by Darcie Draudt-V=C3=A9jares Published on August 25, 2025 blogEmissary *Emissary* harnesses Carnegie=E2=80=99s global scholarship to deliver incis= ive, nuanced analysis on the most pressing international affairs challenges. Learn More programAsia The Asia Program in Washington studies disruptive security, governance, and technological risks that threaten peace, growth, and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region, including a focus on China, Japan, and the Korean peninsula. Learn More Even before he met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, South Korea=E2=80=99s new progressive president had already= taken a momentous diplomatic step. Lee Jae Myung=E2=80=99s first overseas trip wasn= =E2=80=99t to Washington, its seventy-one-year treaty ally and typical first stop for recently inaugurated South Korean leaders. It also wasn=E2= =80=99t to Beijing, its largest trading partner. It was to Tokyo, for a meeting with his Japanese counterpart, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. For casual observers of East Asian affairs, that choice might seem mundane. As neighbors, Japan and South Korea both rank among the world=E2=80=99s top economies (fifth and thirteenth, respectively), boast robust democratic institutions, and wield significant cultural soft power globally=E2=80=94fr= om Japan=E2=80=99s Cool Japan phenomenon to the Korean Wave sweeping international audiences. Yet Korea-Japan relations remain haunted by imperial history. Japan=E2=80= =99s colonial rule from 1910 to 1945 left deep wounds: Forced labor, sexual slavery, and systematic suppression of Korean culture remain politically salient issues. These grievances have traditionally been mobilized by Korea=E2=80=99s progressive left, particularly when out of power=E2=80=94fr= om intelligence-sharing disputes to protests over living history issues to trade disputes . However, as I wrote in May , South Korean progressive foreign policy has been showing a shift toward more pragmatic, security-conscious positions driven by structural constraints that have fundamentally narrowed policy options across the political spectrum. Against this backdrop, the Lee administration=E2=80=99s substantive approach to Japan ties=E2=80=94not merely its diplomatic timing=E2=80=94represents the clearest evidence yet of this transformation. The Outcomes Press reports from both countries have noted the leaders=E2=80=99 emphasis on tackling common economic and s= ecurity challenges rather than competing over historical narratives. Several outcomes suggest three significant shifts in progressive Korean foreign policy thinking as epitomized by the politicking of Lee. First, the two leaders emphasized direct Korea-Japan cooperation across multiple domains, not merely trilateral coordination with Washington. This represents a maturation beyond the traditional hub-and-spoke alliance model, where the U.S. bridged regional partners. Building on the 2023 Camp David summit=E2=80=99s institutional foundations , Seoul and Tokyo are now strengthening bilateral coordination mechanisms. This is particularly significant as Trump=E2=80=99s transactional approache= s and economic threats to allies raises questions about American commitment to alliance management. Second and most notably, Lee framed North Korea=E2=80=99s nuclear program a= s requiring coordinated responses with Japan=E2=80=94a marked contrast to pro= gressive predecessors who preferred to go it alone. This reflects a broader transformation where North Korea=E2=80=99s nuclear advancement and isolatio= nism have fundamentally altered progressive calculations about the feasibility of engagement. North Korea=E2=80=99s recent constitutional changes removing references to peaceful unification and designating South Korea as a hostile state have undermined the ethnic solidarity assumptions that previously guided progressive engagement policies. Finally, Lee and Ishiba focused on common domestic pressures: demographic decline, energy transitions, AI development, and rural revitalization. The emphasis on hydrogen cooperation, artificial intelligence, and advanced technology partnerships reflects progressive foreign policy=E2=80=99s growi= ng focus on economic security and technological sovereignty alongside traditional security goals. The Transformation Behind the Summit This historic diplomatic choice=E2=80=94the first time a Korean president h= as selected Japan for a first foreign visit since normalization in 1965=E2=80=94reflects how structural realities have reshaped progressive calculations despite ideological resistance. Certainly, elements of Korea= =E2=80=99s left remain skeptical of deepening Japan ties, with the progressive *Hankyoreh* editorial board warning postvisit that Lee =E2=80=9Cconceded too much=E2=80=9D on history and North Korea po= licy. The strategic, political, and economic pressures Lee faces made Tokyo the logical destination for his diplomatic debut. Over the past few years, three interconnected factors have fundamentally altered how Korean progressives view Japan and foreign policy more broadly, creating the conditions that put this summit on the books. But substance, not just symbolic timing, reveals the depth of this transformation. First, geopolitics have dramatically narrowed policy options for Seoul vis-=C3=A0-vis its neighbors. Intensifying U.S.-China competition, North Ko= rea=E2=80=99s nuclear maturity, and China=E2=80=99s economic coercion following against Seoul=E2=80=99s national defense decisions have collecti= vely limited South Korea=E2=80=99s foreign policy calculus, regardless of which = party holds power. External constraints, rather than purely ideological preferences over historical narratives, now drive strategic choices. Second, the lagging national economy, combined with the anticipated blowback from Trump=E2=80=99s unilateral tariffs, has sharpened public dema= nds for a foreign policy that delivers concrete benefits on technological competitiveness, energy security, and economic opportunity at home. South Korean voters increasingly frame foreign policy around material well-being rather than historical justice, creating space for cooperation that promises to improve their daily livelihood. Third, recent survey data reveals a dramatic transformation in South Korean attitudes toward international partnerships. Favorable views of Japan have surged from 28.9 percent in 2023 to 63.3 percent in 2025, with the East Asia Institute=E2=80=99s June 2025 survey marking a historic first=E2=80=94favorable views of Japan and its prime mi= nister exceeded unfavorable ones. Most significantly, South Koreans now prioritize cooperation with Japan in areas such as technology, security, and environment (49.6 percent) over resolving historical issues (31.5 percent)=E2=80=94a striking reversal from 2021 when historical grievances d= ominated policy priorities. As I wrote in *Asia Policy* earlier this year , the combination of narrowing policy space and shifting domestic preferences has produced the more pragmatic, security-conscious approach to Japan relations that=E2=80= =99s now visible in the Lee-Ishiba meeting. Although political will remains necessary for bilateral progress, it=E2=80=99s rarely sufficient without fa= vorable structural conditions=E2=80=94and those conditions have finally aligned und= er Lee=E2=80=99s presidency. What This Means for Regional Order Lee=E2=80=99s diplomacy with Tokyo represents more than bilateral fence-men= ding. It signals how middle powers navigate great power competition through strategic diversification . For Washington, this creates both opportunity and complexity. A pragmatic and progressive Seoul offers more predictable partnership but may prove less deferential to U.S. preferences, particularly as Trump=E2=80=99s trans= actional approach raises questions about alliance reliability. Meanwhile, Beijing may be staring down a strategic setback. The Korea-Japan technology cooperation Lee emphasized directly counters Chinese efforts to fragment critical supply chains in securitized tech sectors. But looking with a wider aperture, this might be of China=E2=80=99s own making: Beijing= =E2=80=99s economic coercive tactics against Korea likely have inadvertently accelerated the very coordination it sought to prevent. Most significantly, Lee=E2=80=99s approach offers a template for democratic resilience amid polarization. By grounding foreign policy in material interests rather than ideological positioning, mature democracies can maintain strategic coherence despite domestic divisions=E2=80=94a crucial capability as authoritarian leaders exploit democratic discord. The Durability Question Past Korea-Japan rapprochements have collapsed when domestic politics overwhelmed strategic logic. Several factors suggest greater staying power this time. First, the relative weakness of the conservative opposition following former president Yoon Suk Yeol=E2=80=99s martial law declaration and eventual impeachment limits its ability to counter any objection to Lee=E2=80=99s foreign polic= y direction. In the most recent Gallup Korea survey , public approval rating of the ruling Democratic Party stood at 44 percent, against a paltry 25 percent favor for the conservative People=E2=80=99s Power Party= . Second, the track record suggests that Japan relations are primarily weaponized by progressives when they=E2=80=99re in opposition, not by conservatives. The left has traditionally mobilized historical grievances to challenge conservative governments=E2=80=99 Japan policies, while conser= vatives lack both the ideological motivation and grassroots infrastructure to orchestrate sustained anti-Japan campaigns against progressive governments. Most significantly, Lee has strategically redefined his political base from the far-left coalition that initially propelled his rise=E2=80=94buil= t on redistributive policies and anti-imperialist rhetoric=E2=80=94toward a broa= der centrist tent. This repositioning removes the wind from the sails of stoking anti-Japanese sentiment for short-term political gain, as Lee no longer depends on the activist base that would demand such tactics. However, this transformation raises a critical sustainability question: Will Lee maintain his pragmatic Japan approach when his approval ratings inevitably dip? Previous progressive presidents have reinvigorated historical grievance politics when facing domestic pressure. Lee=E2=80=99s true test will come not durin= g his current honeymoon period, but when political expedience might tempt a return to the anti-Japanese mobilization playbook that once served his political ascent. For a region historically defined by division, the Northeast Asian order could be reshaped by Lee=E2=80=99s transformation of progressive foreign po= licy. The question isn=E2=80=99t whether this shift makes strategic sense=E2=80= =94structural realities have settled that debate. It=E2=80=99s whether democratic leaders= can sustain pragmatic cooperation long enough to build irreversible momentum. --0000000000001750a8063d707d9a Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

South Korea=E2=80=99s New President = Made a Huge Diplomatic Move. It Wasn=E2=80=99t His Washington Meeting With = Trump.

The Lee-Ishiba meeting = is further evidence of a transformational shift in progressive foreign poli= cy in Seoul.

by=C2=A0Darcie Draudt-V=C3=A9jares
Published on August 25, 2025
=
3D""=
blog

Emissary

Emissary=C2=A0harnesses Carnegie=E2= =80=99s global scholarship to deliver incisive, nuanced analysis on the mos= t pressing international affairs challenges.

Learn More
program

Asia

The Asia Program in Washington studies disruptive security,= governance, and technological risks that threaten peace, growth, and oppor= tunity in the Asia-Pacific region, including a focus on China, Japan, and t= he Korean peninsula.

Learn More

Even before he=C2=A0met with U.S. President Donald Trump=C2=A0in = Washington, South Korea=E2=80=99s new progressive president had already tak= en a momentous diplomatic step. Lee Jae Myung=E2=80=99s first overseas trip= wasn=E2=80=99t to Washington, its seventy-one-year treaty ally and= =C2=A0typical=C2=A0first stop for recently inaugurated South Korean leade= rs. It also wasn=E2=80=99t to Beijing, its largest trading partner. It was = to Tokyo, for a meeting with his Japanese counterpart, Prime Minister Shige= ru Ishiba.

For casual observers of East Asian affairs, t= hat choice might seem mundane. As neighbors, Japan and South Korea both ran= k among the world=E2=80=99s top economies (fifth and thirteenth, respective= ly), boast robust democratic institutions, and wield significant cultural s= oft power globally=E2=80=94from Japan=E2=80=99s=C2=A0Cool Japan=C2=A0phenomenon to the=C2=A0Korean Wave=C2=A0sweeping international audi= ences.

Yet Korea-Japan relations remain haunted by imperia= l history. Japan=E2=80=99s colonial rule from 1910 to 1945 left deep wounds= : Forced labor, sexual slavery, and systematic suppression of Korean cultur= e remain politically salient issues. These grievances have traditionally be= en mobilized by Korea=E2=80=99s progressive left, particularly when out of = power=E2=80=94from=C2=A0intelligence-shari= ng disputes=C2=A0to protests over=C2=A0living=C2=A0history=C2=A0issues to=C2=A0= trade disputes.

However, as I wro= te=C2=A0in May, South Korean progressive foreign policy has been showing a s= hift toward more pragmatic, security-conscious positions driven by structur= al constraints that have fundamentally narrowed policy options across the p= olitical spectrum. Against this backdrop, the Lee administration=E2=80=99s = substantive approach to Japan ties=E2=80=94not merely its diplomatic timing= =E2=80=94represents the clearest evidence yet of this transformation.

The Out= comes

Press=C2=A0reports=C2=A0from=C2=A0both=C2= =A0countries=C2=A0have noted the leaders=E2=80=99 emphasis on tackling common economic and = security challenges rather than competing over historical narratives. Sever= al outcomes suggest three significant shifts in progressive Korean foreign = policy thinking as epitomized by the politicking of Lee.

F= irst, the two leaders emphasized direct Korea-Japan cooperation across mult= iple domains, not merely trilateral coordination with Washington. This repr= esents a maturation beyond the traditional hub-and-spoke alliance model, wh= ere the U.S. bridged regional partners. Building on the=C2=A0<= a href=3D"https://www.csis.org/analysis/camp-david-us-japan-korea-trilatera= l-summit-exchange-among-csis-japan-and-korea-chairs" rel=3D"" style=3D"back= ground-color:transparent;border:0px;border-radius:0px;box-sizing:border-box= ;color:inherit;font:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;= text-decoration:underline 0.0833333em rgb(0,167,157)">2023 Camp David summi= t=E2=80=99s institutional foundations, Seoul and Tokyo are now strength= ening bilateral coordination mechanisms. This is particularly significant a= s Trump=E2=80=99s transactional approaches and economic threats to allies r= aises questions about American commitment to alliance management.

=

Second and most notably, Lee framed North Korea=E2=80=99s nuclear p= rogram as requiring coordinated responses with Japan=E2=80=94a marked contr= ast to progressive predecessors who preferred to go it alone. This reflects= a broader transformation where North Korea=E2=80=99s nuclear advancement a= nd isolationism have fundamentally altered progressive calculations about t= he feasibility of engagement. North Korea=E2=80=99s=C2=A0recent constitutional changes removing refer= ences to peaceful unification=C2=A0and designating South K= orea as a hostile state have undermined the ethnic solidarity assumptions t= hat previously guided progressive engagement policies.

Fi= nally,=C2=A0Lee and Ishiba focused on common domestic pres= sures: demographic decline, energy transitions, AI development, and rural r= evitalization. The emphasis on hydrogen cooperation, artificial intelligenc= e, and advanced technology partnerships reflects progressive foreign policy= =E2=80=99s growing focus on economic security and technological sovereignty= alongside traditional security goals.

The Transformation Behind the Summit

This historic diplomatic choice=E2=80=94the first time a K= orean president has selected Japan for a first foreign visit since normaliz= ation in 1965=E2=80=94reflects how structural realities have reshaped progr= essive calculations despite ideological resistance. Certainly, elements of = Korea=E2=80=99s left remain skeptical of deepening Japan ties, with the=C2=A0progressive=C2=A0Hankyoreh=C2=A0editorial board warning postvisit=C2=A0that= Lee =E2=80=9Cconceded too much=E2=80=9D on history and North Korea policy.= The strategic, political, and economic pressures Lee faces made Tokyo the = logical destination for his diplomatic debut.

Over the pas= t few years, three interconnected factors have fundamentally altered how Ko= rean progressives view Japan and foreign policy more broadly, creating the = conditions that put this summit on the books. But substance, not just symbo= lic timing, reveals the depth of this transformation.

Fi= rst, geopolitics have dramatically narrowed policy options for Seoul vis-= =C3=A0-vis its neighbors. Intensifying U.S.-China competition, North Korea= =E2=80=99s nuclear maturity, and=C2=A0China=E2=80=99s economic coercion=C2=A0following= against Seoul=E2=80=99s national defense decisions have collectively limit= ed South Korea=E2=80=99s foreign policy calculus, regardless of which party= holds power. External constraints, rather than purely ideological preferen= ces over historical narratives, now drive strategic choices.

Second, the lagging national economy, combined with the anticipated blow= back from Trump=E2=80=99s unilateral tariffs, has sharpened public demands = for a foreign policy that delivers concrete benefits on technological compe= titiveness, energy security, and economic opportunity at home. South Korean= voters increasingly frame foreign policy around material well-being rather= than historical justice, creating space for cooperation that promises to i= mprove their daily livelihood.

Third, recent survey data r= eveals a dramatic transformation in South Korean attitudes toward internati= onal partnerships. Favorable views of Japan have surged from 28.9 percent i= n 2023 to 63.3 percent in 2025,=C2=A0with the East Asia Institute=E2=80=99s = June 2025 survey=C2=A0marking a historic first=E2=80=94fav= orable views of Japan and its prime minister exceeded unfavorable ones. Mos= t significantly, South Koreans now prioritize cooperation with Japan in are= as such as technology, security, and environment (49.6 percent) over resolv= ing historical issues (31.5 percent)=E2=80=94a striking reversal from 2021 = when historical grievances dominated policy priorities.

As= I wrote=C2=A0in=C2=A0Asia Policy=C2=A0earlier this= year, the combination of narrowing policy space and shifting domestic = preferences has produced the more pragmatic, security-conscious approach to= Japan relations that=E2=80=99s now visible in the Lee-Ishiba meeting. Alth= ough political will remains necessary for bilateral progress, it=E2=80=99s = rarely sufficient without favorable structural conditions=E2=80=94and those= conditions have finally aligned under Lee=E2=80=99s presidency.

<= div class=3D"gmail-rich-text" style=3D"background-color:transparent;border:= 0px;border-radius:0px;box-sizing:border-box;color:inherit;font:inherit;marg= in:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline">

What This Me= ans for Regional Order

Lee=E2=80=99s diplomacy with Tokyo= represents more than bilateral fence-mending. It signals how=C2=A0middle powers navigate great power= competition through strategic diversification. For Washington, this cr= eates both opportunity and complexity. A pragmatic and progressive Seoul of= fers more predictable partnership but may prove less deferential to U.S. pr= eferences, particularly as Trump=E2=80=99s transactional approach raises qu= estions about alliance reliability.

Meanwhile, Beijing may= be staring down a strategic setback. The Korea-Japan technology cooperatio= n Lee emphasized directly counters Chinese efforts to fragment critical sup= ply chains in securitized tech sectors. But looking with a wider aperture, = this might be of China=E2=80=99s own making: Beijing=E2=80=99s economic coe= rcive tactics against Korea likely have inadvertently accelerated the very = coordination it sought to prevent.

Most significantly, Lee= =E2=80=99s approach offers a template for democratic resilience amid polari= zation. By grounding foreign policy in material interests rather than ideol= ogical positioning, mature democracies can maintain strategic coherence des= pite domestic divisions=E2=80=94a crucial capability as authoritarian leade= rs exploit democratic discord.

The Durability Question

Pa= st Korea-Japan rapprochements have collapsed when domestic politics overwhe= lmed strategic logic. Several factors suggest greater staying power this ti= me. First, the relative weakness of the conservative opposition following f= ormer president Yoon Suk Yeol=E2=80=99s=C2=A0martial law declaration=C2=A0an= d=C2=A0eventual impeachment=C2=A0limits its ability to counter any objection to Lee=E2=80=99s= foreign policy direction. In the=C2=A0most recent Gallup K= orea survey, public approval rating of the ruling Democratic Party stoo= d at 44 percent, against a paltry 25 percent favor for the conservative Peo= ple=E2=80=99s Power Party.

Second, the track record sugges= ts that Japan relations are primarily weaponized by progressives when they= =E2=80=99re in opposition, not by conservatives. The left has traditionally= mobilized historical grievances to challenge conservative governments=E2= =80=99 Japan policies, while conservatives lack both the ideological motiva= tion and grassroots infrastructure to orchestrate sustained anti-Japan camp= aigns against progressive governments.

Most significantly,= Lee has=C2=A0st= rategically redefined his political base=C2=A0from the far= -left coalition that initially propelled his rise=E2=80=94built on redistri= butive policies and anti-imperialist rhetoric=E2=80=94toward a broader cent= rist tent. This repositioning removes the wind from the sails of stoking an= ti-Japanese sentiment for short-term political gain, as Lee no longer depen= ds on the activist base that would demand such tactics.

Ho= wever, this transformation raises a critical sustainability question: Will = Lee maintain his pragmatic Japan approach when his approval ratings inevita= bly dip? Previous progressive presidents have=C2=A0reinvigorated historical grievance = politics=C2=A0when facing domestic pressure. Lee=E2=80=99s= true test will come not during his current honeymoon period, but when poli= tical expedience might tempt a return to the anti-Japanese mobilization pla= ybook that once served his political ascent.

For a region = historically defined by division, the Northeast Asian order could be reshap= ed by Lee=E2=80=99s transformation of progressive foreign policy. The quest= ion isn=E2=80=99t whether this shift makes strategic sense=E2=80=94structur= al realities have settled that debate. It=E2=80=99s whether democratic lead= ers can sustain pragmatic cooperation long enough to build irreversible mom= entum.


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28 Aug 2025 17:50:37 -0000 --000000000000c4f329063d708ab3 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000c4f329063d708ab1" --000000000000c4f329063d708ab1 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Huawei and Beeline test 10G internet in Astana August 19, 2025 The pilot project to test ultra-fast 10G wired broadband internet has been launched in Astana. An agreement to launch the 10G internet pilot project was signed between the Astana city administration and Huawei Technologies Kazakhstan in June. According to Astana authorities, the service can transfer data at speeds of up to 10 gigabits per second, enough to support 8K video streaming and cloud gaming. The project is being implemented in partnership with Huawei Technologies Kazakhstan, Beeline and Astana Innovations, with the support of the capital city administration. The venue for the demonstration was provided by ForteBank. At the presentation, attendees were able to personally test the connection speed. Internet speed tests showed download and upload rates of up to 9,490 megabits per second. =C2=ABThe launch of 10G in Astana is a strategic step toward developing next-generation digital infrastructure. It is important for us that innovations quickly move from testing to practical application and bring tangible benefits to residents and businesses,=C2=BB said *Gizat Amirgali*, chairman of the management board of Astana Innovations. Huawei Kazakhstan CEO *Sun Yaxu *emphasized that this is the first project of this level in the country available to everyone. According to him, ultra-fast internet will unlock new opportunities for business, education and healthcare. In turn, Commercial Director of Beeline *Rauan Kabrakhimov* added that the company is striving to make the technology available to users as quickly as possible. The pilot project is open to everyone until Sept. 19, 2025. The internet can be tested at Forte=E2=80=99s co-working space. [image: 03aa4d2238384a45c84b.jpg] Huawei and Beeline test 10G internet in Astana kz.kursiv.media --000000000000c4f329063d708ab1 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Huawei and Beeline test 10G internet in Asta= na =C2=A0

<= font face=3D"Times New Roman">August 19, 2025=C2=A0

The pilot project to test ultra-fast 10G wired broadband internet has been=20 launched in Astana. An agreement to launch the 10G internet pilot=20 project was=C2=A0signed=C2=A0betwe= en the Astana city administration and Huawei Technologies Kazakhstan in Jun= e.

According to Astana authorities, the service can transfer data at speeds of up to 10 gigabits per second, enough to support 8K video streaming and cloud=20 gaming.

The project is being=20 implemented in partnership with Huawei Technologies Kazakhstan, Beeline=20 and Astana Innovations, with the support of the capital city=20 administration. The venue for the demonstration was provided by=20 ForteBank.

At the=20 presentation, attendees were able to personally test the connection=20 speed. Internet speed tests showed download and upload rates of up to=20 9,490 megabits per second.

=C2=ABThe launch of 10G in Astana is a strategic step toward developing=20 next-generation digital infrastructure. It is important for us that=20 innovations quickly move from testing to practical application and bring tangible benefits to residents and businesses,=C2=BB said=C2=A0Giz= at Amirgali, chairman of the management board of Astana Innovation= s.

Huawei Kazak= hstan CEO=C2=A0Sun Yaxu=C2=A0emphasized that this is the first project of this level in the country available=20 to everyone. According to him, ultra-fast internet will unlock new=20 opportunities for business, education and healthcare.
In turn, Commercia= l Director of Beeline=C2=A0Rauan Kabrakhimov=C2=A0added th= at the company is striving to make the technology available to users as qui= ckly as possible.
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-0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 From: Chas Freeman Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 14:10:37 -0400 X-Gm-Features: Ac12FXwEBr1uYR-AiQsQRUAQOdoewfiZZNGKMyaOlhpAXYkidvg1L5iirnRGbR8 Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0000000000007b0808063d70d34f" Subject: [Salon] =?utf-8?q?Made_in_China_2025_=E2=80=93_successful_enough?= =?utf-8?q?_to_make_an_industrial-policy_sequel_credible?= X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 18:10:56 -0000 --0000000000007b0808063d70d34f Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable https://merics.org/en/comment/made-china-2025-successful-enough-make-indust= rial-policy-sequel-credible [image: 250825_Andreas-MiC_519200159] picture alliance / CFOTO | CFOTO *Aug 25, 2025* Made in China 2025 =E2=80=93 successful enough to make an industrial-policy= sequel credible *A decade after launching its industrial upgrade, Beijing has widened its goals to bolster economic security. Andreas Mischer says Xi surely believes China is on the right track.* Beijing=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9CMade in China 2025=E2=80=9D initiative to turn a= low-cost manufacturing hub into a global high-tech leader cannot simply be judged by its successes and failures in areas like robotics, aerospace, advanced information technology, biopharma, and new energy vehicles. The strategy did drive industrial upgrading in many of its 10 focus sectors. But new priorities that only fully emerged after its launch in 2015 =E2=80=93 technological self-reliance and bringing industrial supply chains within China=E2=80=99s = borders in the interests of economic security =E2=80=93 also broadened its scope fr= om industrial improvement to cross-industry leadership and control. While localizing value chains and self-sufficiency were part of the mix 10 years ago, Made in China 2025 initially aimed to avoid the =E2=80=9Cmiddle-= income development trap=E2=80=9D of growth stalling before China became wealthy. A= ssertive industrial policy was meant to make Chinese companies global leaders and generate sustained growth. But this changed with the onset of the China-U.S. trade war during Donald Trump=E2=80=99s first presidency. Restri= ctions on tech giants Huawei and ZTE and the broader tech war after 2018 saw China embrace a whole-of-nation effort for technological advancement and self-reliance =E2=80=93 albeit with varying degrees of success. In advanced railway transportation equipment, new energy vehicles (NEV), and green energy technologies, Chinese companies now produce highly competitive technology and rely very little on imported parts. The China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC) held a global market share of 50 percent in 2022, domestic NEV makers held 90 percent of the Chinese market in the first half of 2024 and sourced most parts locally (although advanced chips remain a problem), while Chinese green tech companies hold 80 percent of the solar panel and 60 percent of the wind turbine market worldwide and 90 percent of major nuclear power equipment is made in China. In five of the 10 focus sectors, success has been more moderate. When it comes to advanced IT, China leads the way in telecoms equipment with a robust supply chain, but it still cannot master extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, essential for advanced chips. In ocean engineering equipment and high-tech ships, China captured 70 percent of new commercial-shipbuilding orders in 2024, but missed its target of localizing 60 percent of high-tech ship equipment supply chains by 2020. In agricultural machinery, domestic players held 95 percent of their home market in 2025, but most high-end equipment still came from abroad. Similarly, in the new materials as well as the biopharmaceuticals and high-performance medical devices sectors, China remains reliant on foreign suppliers for cutting-edge products. In 2023, for example, Chinese companies only held 10 percent of the domestic markets for high-performance reverse osmosis membranes for water purification and semiconductor photoresist materials for making high-tech chips. The country=E2=80=99s hea= lthcare sector remains dependent on imports, and China still runs a trade deficit with the EU in both biomedicine and medical devices, although this imbalance is declining. In the last two of the ten targeted sectors, success was more limited still. Much of China=E2=80=99s progress in high-end computerized machines a= nd robots has relied on foreign technology. Chinese manufacturers held only 48 percent of the domestic industrial robot market in 2024, falling short of the official target of 70 percent set for 2025. In the aerospace sector, the C919 narrow-body passenger jet by the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) relies heavily on foreign suppliers. With only a small number of jets in service, COMAC is far from its goal of capturing 10 percent of the domestic market in the course of the year. On top of that, Beijing=E2=80=99s prioritization of supply-side over demand= -side measures has fostered overinvestment, overcapacity and inefficiency. At least 20 percent of industrial companies are in the red =E2=80=93 a level n= ot seen since the early 2000s =E2=80=93 and NEV manufacturers are locked in a price= war. But Beijing appears willing to accept these side-effects in its quest for long-term security. If enough Chinese companies compete in strategic high-tech areas =E2=80=93 even at a loss =E2=80=93 the hope is that some wi= ll eventually deliver a decisive technological breakthrough. Self-reliance in supply and value chains has become the overarching objective of China=E2=80=99s industrial policy, which now aims to construct= a comprehensive, cross-sectoral industrial base that extends far beyond the 10 sectors identified a decade ago. This push for across-the-board industrial upgrades is encapsulated in the concept of =E2=80=9CNew Producti= ve Forces,=E2=80=9D first outlined by Xi Jinping in 2023. China=E2=80=99s lead= ership is placing its hopes for sustained economic development =E2=80=93 and for reig= niting stagnating domestic productivity =E2=80=93 in the emergence of new technolo= gies that can bring benefits to large parts of the economy. The drivers of this increasingly horizontal industrial policy include data, digitalization, and decarbonization. Beijing is in parallel supporting traditional lower-end industries to stop them from relocating to lower-wage countries. If China wants to maximize self-reliance across its supply and value chains, it would be self-defeating to allow even low-end production to move abroad. Consequently, Xi=E2=80=99s vision of =E2=80=9CChinese-style= modernization=E2=80=9D seeks to integrate emerging high-tech sectors with established industries into a holistic system. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) in late 2023 published a plan to upgrade industries such as petrochemicals, iron and steel, and machine making. It also invited companies to identify model technologies that could revitalize manufacturing in five traditional industries. No longer able rely on the advantages of low costs and globally integrated supply chains, Beijing is aiming to create a feedback loop between traditional industry and high-tech companies to boost China=E2=80=99s produ= ctivity and global competitiveness. For example, the MIIT in April 2025 called for the deeper integration of the industrial internet into the country=E2=80=99= s many industrial parks. By matching industrial software developers with manufacturing companies, Beijing hopes to create a virtuous cycle in which more centralized demand drives advances in software, which boosts factory performance, creating more demand for better software. Trump=E2=80=99s second-term trade policy is all but certain to convince Xi = that China is on the right path. In May, something like a =E2=80=9CMade in China= 2035=E2=80=9D plan for key technologies such as chip-making equipment was said to be in the works. But even if Xi=E2=80=99s chooses a less conspicuous name, any su= ch move would strain the country=E2=80=99s relationship with the US and EU even fur= ther. When Beijing launched Made in China 2025 ten years ago, Washington and Brussels complained that the policy could hurt Western economies and interests. The backlash saw China drop the slogan from public discourse within a few years =E2=80=93 yet the project continued. Author(s) [image: Andreas Mischer] Andreas Mischer Analyst --0000000000007b0808063d70d34f Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https= ://merics.org/en/comment/made-china-2025-successful-enough-make-industrial-= policy-sequel-credible

3D"250825_Andreas-MiC_5192001=
pictu= re alliance / CFOTO | CFOTO

Aug 25, 2025

Made in China 2025 =E2=80=93 successful enough to make an industrial-polic= y sequel credible

A decade after launching = its industrial upgrade, Beijing has widened its goals to bolster economic s= ecurity. Andreas Mischer says Xi surely believes China is on the right trac= k.

Beijing=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9CMade in China 2025=E2= =80=9D initiative to turn a low-cost manufacturing hub into a global high-t= ech leader cannot simply be judged by its successes and failures in areas l= ike robotics, aerospace, advanced information technology, biopharma, and ne= w energy vehicles. The strategy did drive industrial upgrading in many of i= ts 10 focus sectors. But new priorities that only fully emerged after its l= aunch in 2015 =E2=80=93 technological self-reliance and bringing industrial= supply chains within China=E2=80=99s borders in the interests of economic = security =E2=80=93 also broadened its scope from industrial improvement to = cross-industry leadership and control.

While localizing value chains = and self-sufficiency were part of the mix 10 years ago, Made in China 2025 = initially aimed to avoid the =E2=80=9Cmiddle-income development trap=E2=80= =9D of growth stalling before China became wealthy. Assertive industrial po= licy was meant to make Chinese companies global leaders and generate sustai= ned growth. But this changed with the onset of the China-U.S. trade war dur= ing Donald Trump=E2=80=99s first presidency. Restrictions on tech giants Hu= awei and ZTE and the broader tech war after 2018 saw China embrace a whole-= of-nation effort for technological advancement and self-reliance =E2=80=93 = albeit with varying degrees of success.

In advanced railway transport= ation equipment, new energy vehicles (NEV), and green energy technologies, = Chinese companies now produce highly competitive technology and rely very l= ittle on imported parts. The China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC)= held a global market share of 50 percent in 2022, domestic NEV makers held= 90 percent of the Chinese market in the first half of 2024 and sourced mos= t parts locally (although advanced chips remain a problem), while Chinese g= reen tech companies hold 80 percent of the solar panel and 60 percent of th= e wind turbine market worldwide and 90 percent of major nuclear power equip= ment is made in China.

In five of the 10 focus sectors, success has been more moderate. When i= t comes to advanced IT, China leads the way in telecoms equipment with a ro= bust supply chain, but it still cannot master extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lit= hography, essential for advanced chips. In ocean engineering equipment and = high-tech ships, China captured 70 percent of new commercial-shipbuilding o= rders in 2024, but missed its target of localizing 60 percent of high-tech = ship equipment supply chains by 2020. In agricultural machinery, domestic p= layers held 95 percent of their home market in 2025, but most high-end equi= pment still came from abroad.=C2=A0

Similarly, in the new materials as well as the biop= harmaceuticals and high-performance medical devices sectors, China remains = reliant on foreign suppliers for cutting-edge products. In 2023, for exampl= e, Chinese companies only held 10 percent of the domestic markets for high-= performance reverse osmosis membranes for water purification and semiconduc= tor photoresist materials for making high-tech chips. The country=E2=80=99s= healthcare sector remains dependent on imports, and China still runs a tra= de deficit with the EU in both biomedicine and medical devices, although th= is imbalance is declining.=C2=A0

In the last two of the ten targeted sectors, success w= as more limited still. Much of China=E2=80=99s progress in high-end compute= rized machines and robots has relied on foreign technology. Chinese manufac= turers held only 48 percent of the domestic industrial robot market in 2024= , falling short of the official target of 70 percent set for 2025. In the a= erospace sector, the C919 narrow-body passenger jet by the Commercial Aircr= aft Corporation of China (COMAC) relies heavily on foreign suppliers. With = only a small number of jets in service, COMAC is far from its goal of captu= ring 10 percent of the domestic market in the course of the year.

On top of that, Beiji= ng=E2=80=99s prioritization of supply-side over demand-side measures has fo= stered overinvestment, overcapacity and inefficiency. At least 20 percent o= f industrial companies are in the red =E2=80=93 a level not seen since the = early 2000s =E2=80=93 and NEV manufacturers are locked in a price war. But = Beijing appears willing to accept these side-effects in its quest for long-= term security. If enough Chinese companies compete in strategic high-tech a= reas =E2=80=93 even at a loss =E2=80=93 the hope is that some will eventual= ly deliver a decisive technological breakthrough.=C2=A0

Self-reliance in supply and val= ue chains has become the overarching objective of China=E2=80=99s industria= l policy, which now aims to construct a comprehensive, cross-sectoral indus= trial base that extends far beyond the 10 sectors identified a decade ago. = This push for across-the-board industrial upgrades is encapsulated in the c= oncept of =E2=80=9CNew Productive Forces,=E2=80=9D first outlined by Xi Jin= ping in 2023. China=E2=80=99s leadership is placing its hopes for sustained= economic development =E2=80=93 and for reigniting stagnating domestic prod= uctivity =E2=80=93 in the emergence of new technologies that can bring bene= fits to large parts of the economy.=C2=A0

The drivers of this increasingly horizontal i= ndustrial policy include data, digitalization, and decarbonization. Beijing= is in parallel supporting traditional lower-end industries to stop them fr= om relocating to lower-wage countries. If China wants to maximize self-reli= ance across its supply and value chains, it would be self-defeating to allo= w even low-end production to move abroad. Consequently, Xi=E2=80=99s vision= of =E2=80=9CChinese-style modernization=E2=80=9D seeks to integrate emergi= ng high-tech sectors with established industries into a holistic system. Th= e Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) in late 2023 publi= shed a plan to upgrade industries such as petrochemicals, iron and steel, a= nd machine making. It also invited companies to identify model technologies= that could revitalize manufacturing in five traditional industries.=C2=A0<= /span>

No longer ab= le rely on the advantages of low costs and globally integrated supply chain= s, Beijing is aiming to create a feedback loop between traditional industry= and high-tech companies to boost China=E2=80=99s productivity and global c= ompetitiveness. For example, the MIIT in April 2025 called for the deeper i= ntegration of the industrial internet into the country=E2=80=99s many indus= trial parks. By matching industrial software developers with manufacturing = companies, Beijing hopes to create a virtuous cycle in which more centraliz= ed demand drives advances in software, which boosts factory performance, cr= eating more demand for better software.=C2=A0

Trump=E2=80=99s second-term trade policy = is all but certain to convince Xi that China is on the right path. In May, = something like a =E2=80=9CMade in China 2035=E2=80=9D plan for key technolo= gies such as chip-making equipment was said to be in the works. But even if= Xi=E2=80=99s chooses a less conspicuous name, any such move would strain t= he country=E2=80=99s relationship with the US and EU even further. When Bei= jing launched Made in China 2025 ten years ago, Washington and Brussels com= plained that the policy could hurt Western economies and interests. The bac= klash saw China drop the slogan from public discourse within a few years = =E2=80=93 yet the project continued.=C2=A0

Author(s)
3D"Andreas
<= div>
=

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Trump responds by saying such statements are irrelevant because =E2=80=9Ceveryone= is just posturing=E2=80=9D, and =E2=80=9Cit=E2=80=99s all bullshit=E2=80=9D. * *Trump could not be more wrong that a civilizational state like Russia is merely =E2=80=9Cposturing=E2=80=9D about its existential interests, and und= erstanding this key divergence is essential for grasping the far larger implications of the ideological rift between West and East.* *It also explains why observers have been tearing their hair out trying to comprehend why Russia=E2=80=99s consistently clear elucidations of its dema= nds always seemingly fall on deaf ears. Russia issues the exact bullet point reduction of its demands, and the very next day Trump=E2=80=99s various rep= s and envoys muddle things by claiming they aren=E2=80=99t sure what Russia wants= , or that a meeting is needed to further iron things out. * *Trump demystifies things by explaining that these weren=E2=80=99t misunderstandings or a US inability to properly listen to Russia=E2=80=99s demands=E2=80=94even worse, these were outright US dismissals of Russian co= ncerns all along. In Trump=E2=80=99s decadent, reality-TV-inspired world view, eve= ry global conflict is just another daytime soap opera production you can throw enough money at, =E2=80=98rizz=E2=80=99 up its hosts, and things fall into = place. * *He cannot seem to grasp the existential implications for the parties involved, a theme I recently alluded to: * *The world=E2=80=99s a stage for silver-spooned Donnie, and its =E2=80=98in= convenient=E2=80=99 conflicts mere sideshows to be quickly dispensed with for the prize of accolades. That is what being uncultured gets you=E2=80=94the inability to understand rooted histories, barring the odd toss-off like =E2=80=9Cthese p= eople have been fighting for thousands of years=E2=80=9D that Riviera Don occasio= nally rattles off about Gaza in pale imitation of erudition. * *This is likely the real reason for Putin=E2=80=99s infamously pedantic exe= gesis on Russian history for Tucker Carlson, to signal to Western audiences that the conflict has much deeper roots and implications than their leaders are willing to admit.* *Another implication of Trump=E2=80=99s crude dismissal of Russian legal ob= jections has to do with the same so-called =E2=80=98Rules Based Order=E2=80=99 so of= ten pedestaled as the sacred geometry on which the entire Western system rests. Trump callously pulls at the threads of this Order=E2=80=99s very seams by ignori= ng clearly legitimate concerns about one of the party=E2=80=99s legal standing= s, again signifying to the world that the ordurous odor coming from this Order is one of fickle arbitrariness and hypocrisy. * *On the occasion of shedding light on this ideological divide between Russia and the West, it is interesting that Putin had just recently again shared his views on the origins of the West=E2=80=99s demonization of Russi= a. Many have debated this for years, citing Russia=E2=80=99s fraternal involvement = with both US and UK in previous centuries and often attributing the =E2=80=98fal= l=E2=80=99 to the pre-WWI, Milner=E2=80=99s Roundtable and Mackinder=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9CH= eartland=E2=80=9D years. * *But Putin, for his part, traces the lineage of this schismatic hatred much farther back, to the days of Ivan IV, when he believes Papal representatives sought to convince Russia to shed its Orthodoxy, to no avail. After Ivan IV=E2=80=99s rebukes, Putin says the first inklings of th= e now-notorious =E2=80=9Cotherness=E2=80=9D began to be applied to Russia, wi= th Ivan deemed to be a mad tyrant and branded =E2=80=98the Terrible=E2=80=99. * *So, how did we get from Trump=E2=80=99s casual table rants to plumbing his= torical myths? The underlying continuity can be explained simply: the West does not understand Russia, and does not care to understand it. This comes from an ingrained superiority complex and exceptionalism dating back centuries. * *Rhetorical question: How can you resolve a conflict between two parties whose deepest cultural, spiritual, and geopolitical epistemologies you shroud in deliberate obfuscation? * *A growing trend on the front we=E2=80=99ve been following concerns reports= that Russian losses are decreasing while those of Ukraine continue to increase. Last time we covered Ukrainian reports showing Russian vehicular losses going up, but manpower losses going down since December of last year. But new reports claim Ukrainian losses are rising due to increased drone disparities with Russia: * *Ukrainian channels report an increase in casualties on the front lines. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lose up to 300 trucks, pickups, motorcycles, minibuses, ATVs, and other logistics vehicles per day. Additionally, up to 40-50 units of more expensive armored vehicles, tanks, armored cars, and air defense systems are lost every day.* *All these losses mean that the infantry and drone operators are taking over the war. However, the number of experienced drone operators is steadily decreasing. In 2024, an experienced drone operator had a lifespan of five to 11 months, with a survival rate of 70%. Now, an operator has a maximum lifespan of five months, and the survival rate has dropped to 30%. The war is becoming more expensive for Ukraine every day, leading to a catastrophic situation. Busification and attempts at a "technological breakthrough" only prolong the agony. According to many Ukrainian analysts, only the intervention of NATO countries and the United States can save Ukraine.* *A new Italian report in Corriere della Sera makes several big claims: * *https://www.corriere.it/esteri/25_agosto_26/dobropilia-droni-ec5af15b-9a72= -4033-927f-bef43022axlk.shtml* *Summary: * *NATO drones for Ukraine turned out to be "useless," =E2=80=94 Corriere del= la Sera* *=E2=96=AA=EF=B8=8FUkrainian military admit that NATO equipment does not co= pe with the reality of the front.* *=E2=96=AA=EF=B8=8FRussia has already surpassed Kyiv in production scale an= d technology: fiber-optic drones in Russia fly up to 25 km, while in Ukraine =E2=80=94 on= ly up to 15 km.* *=E2=9E=96"For every one of our drones, the Russians launch ten; moreover, = they have more people for patrolling," added the Ukrainian serviceman.* *RVvoenkor* *As stated above, firstly the article mentions that NATO increasingly provides =E2=80=9Cobsolete=E2=80=9D drones to Ukraine, while Russia innovat= es with progressively modern and high-tech ones. * *Then it corroborates that Russian drones far exceeds those of Ukraine:* *=E2=80=9CFor every one of our drones, the Russians fire ten; they also hav= e more men to send on patrol,=E2=80=9D says the officer. For the past few days, bo= th armies have been launching matka, =E2=80=9Cmother=E2=80=9D drones that can = fly up to 50 kilometers away and have two small kamikaze =E2=80=9Cchildren=E2=80=9D atta= ched to their wings. These are expensive objects: over =E2=82=AC200,000 for a single matk= a. So far, they have been used sparingly.* *In a new Politico piece , one of Ukraine=E2=80=99s top drone commanders, Yurih Fedorenko of the 429th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Systems, says multiple times that Ukraine is behind Russia in drone production:* *This roughly matches the scale that Fedorenko defined as the bare minimum for Ukraine=E2=80=99s competitiveness. =E2=80=9CIn total, we=E2=80=99re tal= king about 350,000 drones per month,=E2=80=9D he said. =E2=80=9CThen, we will be able to objec= tively reach parity with the enemy, even outpace them in some areas, and maintain a sustained tempo of destroying their forces on the battlefield.=E2=80=9D* *https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/08/27/ukraine-drones-war-russi= a-00514712* *Interestingly, even after singing the praises of drone warfare for its entire length, the article concludes that artillery is still king: * *But for now, the Ukrainian officer whose name is synonymous with drone warfare sounded a cautionary note about the transformation of the modern battlefield. The idea that unmanned systems could fully replace artillery or infantry is a misconception, said Fedorenko.* *=E2=80=9CIn poor weather =E2=80=94 heavy rain, strong wind, or snow =E2=80= =94 drones often cannot fly or gather clear imagery. =E2=80=9CWho will kill the enemy? The artiller= y,=E2=80=9D he said. =E2=80=9CIt fires in any weather. It will fulfill the task. No one wi= ll replace artillery in the next 50 years.=E2=80=9D The same applies to infant= ry: It is still human beings who operate tanks and firearms, he said.* *Yet they want us to believe that the country which rules in artillery warfare, and which=E2=80=94as admitted in the article=E2=80=94even produces= the most drones, is somehow suffering =E2=80=98more casualties=E2=80=99 in the war. = Who=E2=80=99s naive enough to fall for that? * *If you want another humorous glimpse into how lost and out of touch the West is when it comes to warfare, here=E2=80=99s an MSM excerpt featuring l= eading think tank =E2=80=98expert=E2=80=99 on warfare, Rebecca Grant, giving her v= iews on how a NATO force could easily =E2=80=9Ccream=E2=80=9D Russian forces in Ukraine u= sing the same =E2=80=98unprecedented=E2=80=99 airpower used against Iraq=E2=80=94not to m= ention =E2=80=9Cnuclear armed F-35s=E2=80=9D: * *=E2=80=94* *Getting back to the topic of slowing Russian losses, one of the seeming explanations for this is an increasing prioritization on safety and cautious assault approaches. Mind you, this is just a working theory as we=E2=80=99ll have to watch how offensives on the key semi-surrounded citie= s develop to truly gauge Russia=E2=80=99s evolving tactics. But for now, what= we=E2=80=99ve seemingly been seeing is the refusal of Russian forces to attack major fortified cities =E2=80=9Chead on=E2=80=9D in ways that could be described = as =E2=80=98meat assaults=E2=80=99 as previously seen in places like Bakhmut, but more recen= tly Avdeevka. * *Recall the huge convoys of armored vehicles that rumbled out of Krasnogorovka through the fields north of the Slag Heap and Coke Plant. There has been nothing remotely approaching that despite several large cities now weakened and primed for such an assault, in particular Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, and Kupyansk. * *But it goes deeper than merely the lack of armored assault. It=E2=80=99s m= ore about delaying of gratification=E2=80=94the lack of any main assault on the= cities at all. As soon as the cities are reinforced, Russian forces now divert to capturing more of the flanks and outlying areas. In the case of Pokrovsk, now that Azov and many other =E2=80=98elite=E2=80=99 units like the 93rd ha= ve arrived, Russian forces have begun deflecting to areas past the infamous Dobropillya-direction breakthrough.* *For instance, Rezident UA writes: * *It is noted that the lack of use of armored vehicles was especially evident near Dobropol (north Pokrovsk front), although there were a lot of passenger vehicles there.Previously, having achieved such a breakthrough, Russian troops would have immediately tried to introduce an armored reserve into battle to expand it. However, judging by visual evidence, Russian losses during the battles near Dobropolye barely reached a dozen armored vehicles =E2=80=94, which indicates low levels of its use.* *With new statistics showing a sharp drop of Russian IFV, tank, and artillery losses: * *Doomers and concern-trolls will of course characterize this as a weakening of Russian resolve. They say it=E2=80=99s now been a record amount of time = since a last =E2=80=9Cmajor city=E2=80=9D like Avdeevka has fallen, and Russia=E2= =80=99s piecemeal tactics are merely concealing weaknesses and the inability of the Russian Armed Forces to advance. While it=E2=80=99s true it has been a while since a majo= r city has fallen, at the same time, Russia could make up for all that by capturing several large cities in tandem, given that it has never encircled so many of them at once before as is currently the case.* *The pace before has been one major city per year, with Mariupol in 2022, Bakhmut in 2023, Avdeevka in 2024, and nothing as big yet in 2025=E2=80=94C= hasov Yar and Ugledar probably being the largest. But if Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, and potentially even Seversk and Lyman all fall in the next six months, with Slavyansk and Kramatorsk soon after besieged, it would more than make up for the pace.* *=E2=80=94* *On that note, let=E2=80=99s take a look at current frontline developments.= * *In Pokrovsk, things remain murky as no one can seem to agree on where the line of contact is precisely drawn. Some maps have Russian forces inside a portion of the city like so, with a destroyed Leopard tank geolocated in the center below: * *Kotlyne and most or all of Udachne have been captured, however: * *One Ukrainian commander recently stated that Russian forces around Pokrovsk are equal in number to an amount capable of capturing most European countries, at 110,000 or more claimed surrounding the embattled town. This seems exaggerated or hard to believe given a surprise temporary breakthrough Ukrainian forces managed to effect in the area of Myrne, near Novoekonomichne, where it was noted Russian lines were =E2=80=98extremely t= hin=E2=80=99 or unmanned. Though Ukrainian forces were quickly booted, many mappers now mark it as a gray zone. * *Yuri Podolyaka writes about the retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the area north of Pokrovsk, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been conducting a counteroffensive for a week. The 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine "Azov" is actively advancing north of Rodinsky, but as time passes, the Ukrainian channels are "redrawing" the map, leaving us in control of the Kucheriv Yar region. The enemy's counterattacks have trapped them in a half-sack, without any logistics or supplies.* *The 79th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was advancing in the Novoekonomichesky area, is not faring any better. Their "heroic breakthrough" towards Mirnoye resulted in heavy losses and no prospects of cutting off our salient towards Dobropolye.* *In the north-Pokrovsk breakthrough area, things have stabilized with the arrival of Ukrainian elite forces. However, they were not able to dislodge Russian units any further beyond the initial top third of the =E2=80=98bunn= y ears=E2=80=99. Now, Russian forces have infact expanded control eastward, going with the line of =E2=80=9Cleast resistance=E2=80=9D like water flowing. * *Amongst the newly captured areas was the entire shelf northwest of Rusyn Yar below: * *Bulking up the flanks is an obvious precursor toward continuing the envelopment of Shakhove, which could likely fall long before Pokrovsk. * *Zooming out, we see this is part and parcel to the =E2=80=98deflection=E2= =80=99 strategy outlined earlier, wherein Russian forces merely divert to a new path of least resistance to continue gobbling up territory. * *This may seem counterintuitive at first, but the accumulated =E2=80=98tact= ical=E2=80=99 gains eventually lead to operational troubles for the AFU, when key supply routes, heights, and other dominant positions are reached, which imperil the previously-diverted-from stronghold or population center. * *You see in the map above, Pokrovsk was temporarily blocked, so instead of ramming against it head-on, Russian forces merely continued northward, encircling another decent-sized settlement in the process.* *On the old Velyka Novosilka line southwest of Pokrovsk, Russian forces captured the settlement of Filiya, after earlier getting rebuffed from Zelenyi Hai=E2=80=94again diverting the flow to the opposite direction:* *This begins putting pressure on the larger settlement of Novopavlovka just north of there, which is now slowly becoming encircled. The wider map shows a series of developing encirclements of the largest settlements along the broadest of the Donbass frontlines: * *Apart from that, the past week has been relatively slow on the front, and some Ukrainian analysts ascribe this to a =E2=80=9Cstrategic regrouping=E2= =80=9D of Russian forces, a kind of calm before another storm as Russia moves around more units into positions. * *Top UA analyst Myroshnykov writes: * *The enemy is currently continuing to conduct strategic regrouping.* *A large number of units that were involved in the fighting in the north are being moved to Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.* *There are also some units being moved to the Kupiansk and Borova directions.* *Our warriors are trying to improve positions where possible during this time.* *In Sumy region, of course, there are successes on our side, and possibly more to come, because the enemy has withdrawn almost 70% of reserves and 20% of main forces.* *Overall, the enemy is preparing for the autumn campaign, which may begin in a few weeks.* *At the same time, they are not losing the current pace of offensive actions.* *Obviously, the occupier's main focus will be concentrated on the Pokrovsk-Myronhrad agglomeration, Siversk, Lyman, Kupiansk, Konstiantynivka, and Orikhiv with Huliaipole.* *And there, according to the "old scheme" =E2=80=94 they will concentrate t= heir main efforts where they can advance.* *But the main direction will be Pokrovsk and Myronhrad. I think the battles for these cities are not as far off as we would like. Unfortunately.* *Further north, Myroshnykov writes that the Serebriansky forest campaign is coming to an end, as Russians will soon capture the remainder of the forest: * *The defense of the Serebryansky forestry, unfortunately, is coming to an end.* *Along with this, the defense of the bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Zherebets River is also coming to an end.* *This significantly worsens the positions for both key settlements east of the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration - Siversk and Lyman.* *Siversk is already practically half-surrounded (encircled from two sides), and if the enemy breaks out from the Serebryansky forest to Dronivka and captures it, then it will be surrounded from three sides.* *Things there are, to put it mildly, not very good. If not to say, completely bad.* *Lastly, some interesting things have happened in Kupyansk over the past few days. Not only have Russian forces captured the areas east of Petropavlovka as reported last time, but they have crept down the western side of Kupyansk, further encircling it and threatening the last main supply route out of the city: * *Where the green arrow lies, Russian forces even reportedly made a quick raid nearly into the city center, but were pushed back. This likely signals probing actions for the suitability of quickly cutting the city in half at the main bridge (the one slightly further south is a railway-only bridge):* *=E2=80=94* *A couple last interesting related points. A new video reportedly shows forcibly mobilized Ukrainian recruits explaining that thirty out of the forty of them which were mobilized have escaped=E2=80=94a whole 75% which w= ill not reach the front: * *Out of forty mobilized soldiers being taken to the front, thirty escaped.* *This is told by one of those who did not run away =E2=80=94 according to h= im, during the time the bus was traveling from the training camp to the front line, at every stop the mobilized soldiers escaped. - UARU* *This is particularly interesting given a new post by a Ukrainian lawyer which states in his mobilized platoon, 60% of recruits went AWOL (=D0=A1=D0= =97=D0=A7, or =E2=80=98unauthorized leaving of unit=E2=80=99): * *Presumably he=E2=80=99s also referring to stunts like this one seen last w= eek: * *This comes amidst a new report from Ukrainian Pravda that up to 250,000 Ukrainians have gone AWOL since 2022, with official data reportedly from the Prosecutor General=E2=80=99s office: * *=F0=9F=87=BA=F0=9F=87=A6More than 250 thousand deserters and those who hav= e unauthorizedly abandoned their units have been officially recorded in Ukraine.* *As the publication "Ukrainian Truth" writes, citing a response from the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, from 2022 to July 2025, more than 200 thousand cases were opened for unauthorized abandonment of unit and more than 50 thousand cases for desertion.* *It should be understood that not every case of unauthorized abandonment of unit results in an official criminal case with suspicion being handed over. Moreover, not every case of unauthorized abandonment is irreversible.* *Ukrainian MP Anna Skorokhod claims this is just the =E2=80=98tip of the ic= eberg=E2=80=99 and that the real number approaches 400,000. * *With such statistics and presumed casualty counts, one of the following four has to be true. Either: * 1. *Ukrainian =E2=80=98loss=E2=80=99 statistics are vastly exaggerated as m= askirovka to fool Russia.* 2. *Ukrainian drone units are spectacularly better than given credit for, able to hold entire fronts by themselves with no other defenders present= .* 3. *Ukraine is nearing total collapse. * 4. *Russian forces are in nearly as bad shape and unable to decisively =E2=80=98break through=E2=80=99. * What is most likely, given recent reports of AFU hardships? *UA losses vastly exaggerated. * *UA FPV units are impenetrable wall.* *UA nearing total collapse.* *RF in nearly as bad shape. * *823 VOTES =C2=B7 2 DAYS REMAINING* *Interestingly, a recent Ukrainian report from one drone unit even bemoaned the increasing lack of drone pilots on some fronts. * *=E2=80=94* *A last item: * *This week Germany announced what is essentially the closure of the Nord Stream case, as Die Zeit reports: * *https://www.zeit.de/2025/37/anschlag-nord-stream-pipelines-aufklaerung-fes= tnahme-ukraine* *The attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines have largely been solved, and the alleged perpetrators are known. The German government is facing uncomfortable questions.* *The investigation into the largest terrorist attack in European history has effectively been concluded with the arrest of a Ukrainian ex-AFU officer in Italy. But the most remarkable part is just a day after this announcement, Chancellor Merz had the unimaginable gall to pen this hysterically hypocritical screed against Russia, accusing it of being the =E2=80=98greatest threat to Europe=E2=80=99 and conducting hybrid attacks a= nd sabotage against the wannabe-continent: * *At this point, such insolence can only be explained as intentional provocation=E2=80=94these comprador elites are laughing at their own citize= ns, daring them to flag the unprecedented hypocrisy of accusing Russia of sabotage, while pumping weapons into Ukraine, a mere day after Ukraine was effectively confirmed as the perpetrator of the largest such sabotage attack on Europe in history; there=E2=80=99s simply no more words for it. * *But alas, a clue to this paradox exists in the above article=E2=80=99s com= ments section, where a native German remarks that the Ukrainian man should be owed thanks for ridding Germany of Russian gas. Well=E2=80=94one supposes, = then, that the Europeans are deserving of their lot, and their leadership. Of course, when nuclear holocaust comes home to roost on their soil, such perversions of logic will have been long forgotten. * ------------------------------ --0000000000008313bd063d7471d0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

SITREP 8/28/25: T= rump Scoffs at Russian Interests in Gross Display of Hubris

=

Trump made a= very interesting comment during a press conference yesterday which entirel= y summarizes the West=E2=80=99s misguided approach to Russia:=C2=A0

Trump is asked on his opinion regarding Lavr= ov=E2=80=99s statement that Russia could not sign a deal with an illegitima= te leader like Zelensky. Trump responds by saying such statements are irrel= evant because =E2=80=9Ceveryone is just posturing=E2=80=9D, and =E2=80=9Cit= =E2=80=99s all bullshit=E2=80=9D.=C2=A0

= Trump could not be more wrong that a civilizational state like Russia is= merely =E2=80=9Cposturing=E2=80=9D about its existential interests, and un= derstanding this key divergence is essential for grasping the far larger im= plications of the ideological rift between West and East.

It also explains why observers have been tearing their hair out try= ing to comprehend why Russia=E2=80=99s consistently clear elucidations of i= ts demands always seemingly fall on deaf ears. Russia issues the exact bull= et point reduction of its demands, and the very next day Trump=E2=80=99s va= rious reps and envoys muddle things by claiming they aren=E2=80=99t sure wh= at Russia wants, or that a meeting is needed to further iron things out.=C2=A0

Trump demystifies things by expla= ining that these weren=E2=80=99t misunderstandings or a US inability to pro= perly listen to Russia=E2=80=99s demands=E2=80=94even worse, these were out= right US dismissals of Russian concerns all along. In Trump=E2=80=99s decad= ent, reality-TV-inspired world view, every global conflict is just another = daytime soap opera production you can throw enough money at, =E2=80=98rizz= =E2=80=99 up its hosts, and things fall into place.=C2=A0<= /font>

He cannot seem to grasp the existential implications f= or the parties involved, a theme I recently alluded to:=C2=A0<= /b>

=
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The world=E2=80=99s a stage for silver-spooned= Donnie, and its =E2=80=98inconvenient=E2=80=99 conflicts mere sideshows to= be quickly dispensed with for the prize of accolades. That is what being u= ncultured gets you=E2=80=94the inability to understand rooted histories, ba= rring the odd toss-off like=C2=A0=E2=80=9Cthese people have been fighting for thousands of years=E2=80= =9D=C2=A0that Riviera Don o= ccasionally rattles off about Gaza in pale imitation of erudition.=C2= =A0

This is likely the real reason f= or Putin=E2=80=99s infamously pedantic exegesis on Russian history for Tuck= er Carlson, to signal to Western audiences that the conflict has much deepe= r roots and implications than their leaders are willing to admit.

Another implication of Trump= =E2=80=99s crude dismissal of Russian legal objections has to do with the s= ame so-called =E2=80=98Rules Based Order=E2=80=99 so often pedestaled as th= e sacred geometry on which the entire Western system rests. Trump callously= pulls at the threads of this Order=E2=80=99s very seams by ignoring clearl= y legitimate concerns about one of the party=E2=80=99s legal standings, aga= in signifying to the world that the ordurous=C2=A0odor=C2=A0<= /span>coming from this Order is one of fickle arbitrariness and hypocrisy.<= span>=C2=A0

On the occasion of shedd= ing light on this ideological divide between Russia and the West, it is int= eresting that Putin had just recently again shared his views on the origins= of the West=E2=80=99s demonization of Russia. Many have debated this for y= ears, citing Russia=E2=80=99s fraternal involvement with both US and UK in = previous centuries and often attributing the =E2=80=98fall=E2=80=99 to the = pre-WWI, Milner=E2=80=99s Roundtable and Mackinder=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9CHeart= land=E2=80=9D years.=C2=A0

But Putin,= for his part, traces the lineage of this schismatic hatred much farther ba= ck, to the days of Ivan IV, when he believes Papal representatives sought t= o convince Russia to shed its Orthodoxy, to no avail. After Ivan IV=E2=80= =99s rebukes, Putin says the first inklings of the now-notorious =E2=80=9Co= therness=E2=80=9D began to be applied to Russia, with Ivan deemed to be a m= ad tyrant and branded =E2=80=98the Terrible=E2=80=99.=C2=A0

So, how did we get from Trump=E2=80=99s casual table= rants to plumbing historical myths? The underlying continuity can be expla= ined simply: the West does not understand Russia, and does not care to unde= rstand it. This comes from an ingrained superiority complex and exceptional= ism dating back centuries.=C2=A0

Rhet= orical question: How can you resolve a conflict between two parties whose d= eepest cultural, spiritual, and geopolitical epistemologies you shroud in d= eliberate obfuscation?=C2=A0

A growing trend on the front we=E2=80=99ve been foll= owing concerns reports that Russian losses are=C2=A0decreasing=C2=A0while those of Ukraine continue to=C2=A0<= i style=3D"max-width:100%">increase. Las= t time we covered Ukrainian reports showing Russian vehicular losses going = up, but manpower losses going down since December of last year. But new rep= orts claim Ukrainian losses are rising due to increased drone disparities w= ith Russia:=C2=A0

Ukrainian = channels report an increase in casualties=C2=A0on the front lines. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lose = up to 300 trucks, pickups, motorcycles, minibuses, ATVs, and other logistic= s vehicles per day. Additionally, up to 40-50 units of more expensive armor= ed vehicles, tanks, armored cars, and air defense systems are lost every da= y.

All thes= e losses mean that the infantry and drone operators are taking over the war= . However, the number of experienced drone operators is steadily decreasing= .=C2=A0In 2024, an exper= ienced drone operator had a lifespan of five to 11 months, with a survival = rate of 70%. Now, an operator has a maximum lifespan of five months, and th= e survival rate has dropped to 30%.=C2=A0The war is becoming more expensive for Ukraine every day, = leading to a catastrophic situation. Busification and attempts at a "t= echnological breakthrough" only prolong the agony. According to many U= krainian analysts, only the intervention of NATO countries and the United S= tates can save Ukraine.

A = new Italian report in Corriere della Sera makes several big claims:= =C2=A0

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= https://www.corriere.it/esteri/25_agosto_26/dobr= opilia-droni-ec5af15b-9a72-4033-927f-bef43022axlk.shtml

Summary:=C2=A0

N= ATO drones for Ukraine turned out to be &quo= t;useless," =E2=80=94 Corriere della Sera

=E2=96=AA=EF=B8=8FUkrainian military admit that NATO equipment does no= t cope with the reality of the front.

=E2=96=AA= =EF=B8=8FRussia has already surpassed Kyiv in production scale and technolo= gy: fiber-optic drones in Russia fly up to 25 km, while in Ukraine =E2=80= =94 only up to 15 km.

=E2=9E=96"For every one of o= ur drones, the Russians launch ten;=C2=A0moreover, they have more people for patrolling," adde= d the Ukrainian serviceman.

RVvoenkor<= /font>

As stated above, firstly the article = mentions that NATO increasingly provides =E2=80=9Cobsolete=E2=80=9D drones = to Ukraine, while Russia innovates with progressively modern and high-tech = ones.=C2=A0

Then it corroborates that= Russian drones far exceeds those of Ukraine:

= =E2=80=9CFor every one of our drones, the Russians fire ten; they also have= more men to send on patrol,=E2=80=9D says the officer.=C2=A0For the past few days, both armies h= ave been launching matka, =E2=80=9Cmother=E2=80=9D drones that can fly up t= o 50 kilometers away and have two small kamikaze =E2=80=9Cchildren=E2=80=9D= attached to their wings. These are expensive objects: over =E2=82=AC200,00= 0 for a single matka. So far, they have been used sparingly.

In= =C2=A0a ne= w Politico piece, one of Ukraine= =E2=80=99s top drone commanders, Yurih Fedorenko of the 429th Separate Regi= ment of Unmanned Systems, says multiple times that Ukraine is behind Russia= in drone production:

This roughly matche= s the scale that Fedorenko defined as the bare minimum for Ukraine=E2=80=99= s competitiveness. =E2=80=9CIn total, we=E2=80=99re talking about 350,000 d= rones per month,=E2=80=9D he said.=C2=A0=E2=80=9CThen, we will be able to objectively reach parity = with the enemy, even outpace them in some areas,=C2=A0and maintain a sustained tempo of destroying = their forces on the battlefield.=E2=80=9D

= Interestingly, even after singing the praises of= drone warfare for its entire length, the article concludes that artillery = is still king:=C2=A0

But for now, t= he Ukrainian officer whose name is synonymous with drone warfare sounded a = cautionary note about the transformation of the modern battlefield.= =C2=A0The idea that unmanned s= ystems could fully replace artillery or infantry is a misconception, said F= edorenko.

=E2=80= =9CIn poor weather =E2=80=94 heavy rain, strong wind, or snow =E2=80=94 dro= nes often cannot fly or gather clear imagery. =E2=80=9CWho will kill the en= emy? The artillery,=E2=80=9D he said. =E2=80=9CIt fires in any weather. It = will fulfill the task. No one will replace artillery in the next 50 years.= =E2=80=9D The same applies to infantry: It is still human beings who operat= e tanks and firearms, he said.

Ye= t they want us to believe that the country which rules in artillery warfare= , and which=E2=80=94as admitted in the article=E2=80=94even produces the mo= st drones, is somehow suffering =E2=80=98more casualties=E2=80=99 in the wa= r. Who=E2=80=99s naive enough to fall for that?=C2=A0

If you want another humorous glimpse into how lost and out= of touch the West is when it comes to warfare, here=E2=80=99s an MSM excer= pt featuring leading think tank =E2=80=98expert=E2=80=99 on warfare, Rebecc= a Grant, giving her views on how a NATO force could easily =E2=80=9Ccream= =E2=80=9D Russian forces in Ukraine using the same =E2=80=98unprecedented= =E2=80=99 airpower used against Iraq=E2=80=94not to mention =E2=80=9Cnuclea= r armed F-35s=E2=80=9D:=C2=A0

=E2=80= =94

Getting back to= the topic of slowing Russian losses, one of the=C2=A0<= i style=3D"max-width:100%">seeming=C2=A0explanations for this is an increasing prioritization on safet= y and cautious assault approaches. Mind you, this is just a working theory = as we=E2=80=99ll have to watch how offensives on the key semi-surrounded ci= ties develop to truly gauge Russia=E2=80=99s evolving tactics. But for now,= what we=E2=80=99ve seemingly been seeing is the refusal of Russian forces = to attack major fortified cities =E2=80=9Chead on=E2=80=9D in ways that cou= ld be described as =E2=80=98meat assaults=E2=80=99 as previously seen in pl= aces like Bakhmut, but more recently Avdeevka.=C2=A0

Recall the huge convoys of armored vehicles that rum= bled out of Krasnogorovka through the fields north of the Slag Heap and Cok= e Plant. There has been nothing remotely approaching that despite several l= arge cities now weakened and primed for such an assault, in particular Pokr= ovsk, Konstantinovka, and Kupyansk.=C2=A0

But it goes deeper than merely the lack of armored assault. It=E2=80= =99s more about delaying of gratification=E2=80=94the lack of any main assa= ult on the cities at all. As soon as the cities are reinforced, Russian for= ces now divert to capturing more of the flanks and outlying areas. In the c= ase of Pokrovsk, now that Azov and many other =E2=80=98elite=E2=80=99 units= like the 93rd have arrived, Russian forces have begun deflecting to areas = past the infamous Dobropillya-direction breakthrough.

For instance, Rezident UA writes:=C2=A0

It is noted that the lack of use of armored vehicles was especiall= y evident near Dobropol (north Pokrovsk front), although there were a lot o= f passenger vehicles there.

Previously, having achieved= such a breakthrough, Russian troops would have immediately tried to introd= uce an armored reserve into battle to expand it. However, judging by visual= evidence, Russian losses during the battles near Dobropolye barely reached= a dozen armored vehicles=C2=A0= =E2=80=94, which indicates low levels of its use.<= /i>

With new statistics showing a sharp drop of = Russian IFV, tank, and artillery losses:=C2=A0

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Doomers and concern-trolls will of course characterize this as = a weakening of Russian resolve. They say it=E2=80=99s now been a record amo= unt of time since a last =E2=80=9Cmajor city=E2=80=9D like Avdeevka has fal= len, and Russia=E2=80=99s piecemeal tactics are merely concealing weaknesse= s and the inability of the Russian Armed Forces to advance. While it=E2=80= =99s true it has been a while since a major city has fallen, at the same ti= me, Russia could make up for all that by capturing several large cities in = tandem, given that it has never encircled so many of them at once before as= is currently the case.

The pace before has been o= ne major city per year, with Mariupol in 2022, Bakhmut in 2023, Avdeevka in= 2024, and nothing as big yet in 2025=E2=80=94Chasov Yar and Ugledar probab= ly being the largest. But if Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, and potent= ially even Seversk and Lyman all fall in the next six months, with Slavyans= k and Kramatorsk soon after besieged, it would more than make up for the pa= ce.

=E2=80=94

On that not= e, let=E2=80=99s take a look at current frontline developments.=C2=A0=

In Pokrovsk, things remain murky as no one= can seem to agree on where the line of contact is precisely drawn. Some ma= ps have Russian forces inside a portion of the city like so, with a destroy= ed Leopard tank geolocated in the center below:=C2=A0

Kotly= ne and most or all of Udachne have been captured, however:=C2=A0

3D""

= One Ukrainian commander recently stated that Russian forces around Pokro= vsk are equal in number to an amount capable of capturing most European cou= ntries, at 110,000 or more claimed surrounding the embattled town. This see= ms exaggerated or hard to believe given a surprise temporary breakthrough U= krainian forces managed to effect in the area of Myrne, near Novoekonomichn= e, where it was noted Russian lines were =E2=80=98extremely thin=E2=80=99 o= r unmanned. Though Ukrainian forces were quickly booted, many mappers now m= ark it as a gray zone.=C2=A0

Yuri= Podolyaka writes about the retreat=C2=A0of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the area north of Pokr= ovsk, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been conducting a counteroffen= sive for a week. The 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine "Azov&= quot; is actively advancing north of Rodinsky, but as time passes, the Ukra= inian channels are "redrawing" the map, leaving us in control of = the Kucheriv Yar region. The enemy's counterattacks have trapped them i= n a half-sack, without any logistics or supplies.

=

The 79th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Uk= raine, which was advancing in the Novoekonomichesky area, is not faring any= better. Their "heroic breakthrough" towards Mirnoye resulted in = heavy losses and no prospects of cutting off our salient towards Dobropolye= .

In the north-Pokrovsk breakthro= ugh area, things have stabilized with the arrival of Ukrainian elite forces= . However, they were not able to dislodge Russian units any further beyond = the initial top third of the =E2=80=98bunny ears=E2=80=99. Now, Russian for= ces have infact expanded control eastward, going with the line of =E2=80=9C= least resistance=E2=80=9D like water flowing.=C2=A0=

Amongst the newly captured areas was the entire shelf north= west of Rusyn Yar below:=C2=A0

Bulking up the flanks is an obvious precursor toward c= ontinuing the envelopment of Shakhove, which could likely fall long before = Pokrovsk.=C2=A0

Zooming out, we see t= his is part and parcel to the =E2=80=98deflection=E2=80=99 strategy outline= d earlier, wherein Russian forces merely divert to a new path of least resi= stance to continue gobbling up territory.=C2=A0

=
3D""

This may seem= counterintuitive at first, but the accumulated =E2=80=98tactical=E2=80=99 = gains eventually lead to operational troubles for the AFU, when key supply = routes, heights, and other dominant positions are reached, which imperil th= e previously-diverted-from stronghold or population center.=C2=A0

You see in the map above, Pokrovsk was tempora= rily blocked, so instead of ramming against it head-on, Russian forces mere= ly continued northward, encircling another decent-sized settlement in the p= rocess.

On the old Velyka Novosilka line southwest= of Pokrovsk, Russian forces captured the settlement of Filiya, after earli= er getting rebuffed from Zelenyi Hai=E2=80=94again diverting the flow to th= e opposite direction:

This begins putting pressure on the larger settlement= of Novopavlovka just north of there, which is now slowly becoming encircle= d. The wider map shows a series of developing encirclements of the largest = settlements along the broadest of the Donbass frontlines:=C2=A0

3D""

= Apart from that, the past week=C2= =A0has=C2=A0been relatively slow on the front, and some Ukra= inian analysts ascribe this to a =E2=80=9Cstrategic regrouping=E2=80=9D of = Russian forces, a kind of calm before another storm as Russia moves around = more units into positions.=C2=A0

= Top UA analyst Myroshnykov writes:=C2=A0

The enemy is currently continuing to conduct strategic regrouping.

A large number of units that = were involved in the fighting in the north are being moved to Donetsk and Z= aporizhzhia.

There are a= lso some units being moved to the Kupiansk and Borova directions.

Our warriors are trying to improve positions where possibl= e during this time.

In Sumy region, of course, t= here are successes on our side, and possibly more to come, because the enem= y has withdrawn almost 70% of reserves and 20% of main forces.

Overall, the enemy is preparing for the autumn campaign, wh= ich may begin in a few weeks.

At the same time, t= hey are not losing the current pace of offensive actions.

Obviously, the occupier's main focus will be concentrated on t= he Pokrovsk-Myronhrad agglomeration, Siversk, Lyman, Kupiansk, Konstiantyni= vka, and Orikhiv with Huliaipole.

And there, acco= rding to the "old scheme" =E2=80=94 they will concentrate their m= ain efforts where they can advance.

But the main direction will be Pokrovsk and Myronhrad. I think= the battles for these cities are not as far off as we would like. Unfortun= ately.

Further north, Myroshnykov= writes that the Serebriansky forest campaign is coming to an end, as Russi= ans will soon capture the remainder of the forest:=C2=A0

The defense of the Serebryansky forestry, unfortunately, is= coming to an end.

Along with this, the defense= of the bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Zherebets River is also comin= g to an end.

This signif= icantly worsens the positions for both key settlements east of the Kramator= sk-Sloviansk agglomeration - Siversk and Lyman.

= Siversk is already practically half-surrounded (encircled from two sides), = and if the enemy breaks out from the Serebryansky forest to Dronivka and ca= ptures it, then it will be surrounded from three sides.

<= p style=3D"max-width:100%">Things there are, to put it mildly, not ver= y good. If not to say, completely bad.

Lastly, some interesting things have happened in Kupyansk over the pa= st few days. Not only have Russian forces captured the areas east of Petrop= avlovka as reported last time, but they have crept down the western side of= Kupyansk, further encircling it and threatening the last main supply route= out of the city:=C2=A0

3D""

Where the green arrow lies, Russian fo= rces even reportedly made a quick raid nearly into the city center, but wer= e pushed back. This likely signals probing actions for the suitability of q= uickly cutting the city in half at the main bridge (the one slightly furthe= r south is a railway-only bridge):

3D""

=E2=80=94

A cou= ple last interesting related points. A new video reportedly shows forcibly = mobilized Ukrainian recruits explaining that thirty out of the forty of the= m which were mobilized have escaped=E2=80=94a whole 75% which will not reac= h the front:=C2=A0

Out of forty mob= ilized soldiers being taken to the front, thirty escaped.

<= i style=3D"max-width:100%">This is told by one o= f those who did not run away =E2=80=94 according to him, during the time th= e bus was traveling from the training camp to the front line, at every stop= the mobilized soldiers escaped. - UARU

This is particularly interesting given a new post by a Ukrainian law= yer which states in his mobilized platoon, 60% of recruits went AWOL (=D0= =A1=D0=97=D0=A7, or =E2=80=98unauthorized leaving of unit=E2=80=99):= =C2=A0

3D""
=

Presumably he=E2=80=99s also referring to stunts like this= one seen last week:=C2=A0

This comes= amidst a new report from Ukrainian Pravda that up to 250,000 Ukrainians ha= ve gone AWOL since 2022, with official data reportedly from the Prosecutor = General=E2=80=99s office:=C2=A0

3D""

=F0=9F=87=BA=F0=9F=87=A6More than 250 thousand deserters = and those who have unauthorizedly abandoned their units have been officiall= y recorded in Ukraine.

As the publication "U= krainian Truth" writes, citing a response from the Prosecutor General = of Ukraine, from 2022 to July 2025, more than 200 thousand cases were opene= d for unauthorized abandonment of unit and more than 50 thousand cases for = desertion.

It should be understood that not every= case of unauthorized abandonment of unit results in an official criminal c= ase with suspicion being handed over. Moreover, not every case of unauthori= zed abandonment is irreversible.

= Ukrainian MP Anna Skorokhod claims this is just the =E2=80=98tip of the ice= berg=E2=80=99 and that the real number approaches 400,000.=C2=A0

With such statistics and presumed casualty coun= ts, one of the following four has to be true. Either:=C2=A0

    Ukrainian =E2=80=98loss=E2=80=99 statistics are vastly exaggerated as= maskirovka to fool Russia.

  1. Ukrainian drone uni= ts are spectacularly better than given credit for, able to hold entire fron= ts by themselves with no other defenders present.

  2. = Ukraine is nearing total collapse.=C2=A0

  3. Russian forces are in nearly as bad shape and unable to decisivel= y =E2=80=98break through=E2=80=99.=C2=A0

    4. What is most likely, given recent re= ports of AFU hardships?

    UA losses vastly exaggerated.=C2= =A0

    <= b>UA FPV units are impenetrable wall.

    UA nearing total collapse.

    RF in nearly as bad shape.<= span>=C2=A0

    823 VOTES =C2=B7=C2=A02 DAYS RE= MAINING

    Interestingly, a recent Ukrain= ian report from one drone unit even bemoaned the increasing lack of drone p= ilots on some fronts.=C2=A0

    =E2=80=94=

    <= font color=3D"#000000">A last item:=C2=A0

    This week Germany announced what is essentially the closure of the = Nord Stream case, as Die Zeit reports:=C2=A0

    3D""
    https://= www.zeit.de/2025/37/anschlag-nord-stream-pipelines-aufklaerung-festnahme-uk= raine
=

The attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines h= ave largely been solved, and the alleged perpetrators are known. The German= government is facing uncomfortable questions.

The investigation into the largest terrorist attack in Euro= pean history has effectively been concluded with the arrest of a Ukrainian = ex-AFU officer in Italy. But the most remarkable part is just a day after t= his announcement, Chancellor Merz had the unimaginable gall to pen this hys= terically hypocritical screed against Russia, accusing it of being the =E2= =80=98greatest threat to Europe=E2=80=99 and conducting hybrid attacks and = sabotage against the wannabe-continent:=C2=A0

3D""

At this poi= nt, such insolence can only be explained as intentional provocation=E2=80= =94these comprador elites are laughing at their own citizens, daring them t= o flag the unprecedented hypocrisy of accusing Russia of sabotage, while pu= mping weapons into Ukraine, a mere day after Ukraine was effectively confir= med as the perpetrator of the largest such sabotage attack on Europe in his= tory; there=E2=80=99s simply no more words for it.=C2=A0

But alas, a clue to this paradox exists in the above ar= ticle=E2=80=99s comments section, where a native German remarks that the Uk= rainian man should be owed thanks for ridding Germany of Russian gas. Well= =E2=80=94one supposes, then, that the Europeans are deserving of their lot,= and their leadership. Of course, when nuclear holocaust comes home to roos= t on their soil, such perversions of logic will have been long forgotten.=C2=A0


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Speculat= ion swirls about which world leaders will join President Xi Jinping=E2=80=94Putin=E2=80=99s presence is all but certa= in, though whispers of Trump attending seem far-fetched. Some peace advocates argue this moment offers a chance for global powers to reflect on World War II=E2=80=99s horrors, a sentiment aligned with the UN Charter=E2=80=99s spi= rit and urgent amid rising global tensions. Yet, European leaders=E2=80=99 refusal to atte= nd, citing concerns about offending Japan, reveals a deeper issue. China=E2=80=99s commemoration closes the cycle of W= WII anniversaries, but it begs a critical question: do we truly understand this war=E2=80=99s global scope, or have we allowed vital chapters to fade into obscurity? A glaring gap exists in our collective memory of World War II=E2=80=94a war= we call =E2=80=9Cglobal,=E2=80=9D yet one where the role of the fourth allied victo= r, China, is consistently sidelined. China entered the conflict first in 1931 , not 1939, and endured until Japan=E2=80=99s surrender in 1945. Over 14 year= s, it suffered approximately 35 million casualties and tied down a million Japanese troops, enabling the USSR and USA to focus elsewhere. Leaders like Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin acknowledged China=E2=80=99s pivotal role = in shaping the war=E2=80=99s outcome. So why is this contribution so often ign= ored and buried under layers of Western-focused narratives? For many, World War II=E2=80=99s defining tragedy is the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, horrific acts that serve as a stark warning of humanity=E2=80=99s destructive power, unleashed by the United States. These= events deserve remembrance, but the subsequent U.S. occupation of Japan and the imposed peace constitution (also known as the MacArthur Constitution) were less about harmony than securing a strategic foothold in the Indo-Pacific during the Cold War. Today, Japan arms itself under the U.S. nuclear umbrella , ostensibly to counter a =E2=80=9Cthreat=E2=80=9D from China. This narrative twist is as convenien= t as it is misleading. Like Russia, which fiercely preserves its WW II sacrifices, China now demands recognition for its own. Its resistance to Japanese militarism remains a largely untold saga. A glimpse into this =E2=80=9Cblack hole =E2=80=9D of collective memory reveals atrocities that defy comprehension: the Nanjing Massacre of 1937, where 300,000 civilians were killed and mass rapes committed; Unit 731=E2=80=99s chemical and biological experiments on prisoners, including children, so vile they shocked even Nazi observers. German envoys urged Berlin to restrain Tokyo, while Japanese records meticulously documented their brutal chaos. Brave Japanese historians have since exposed these horrors, yet they remain marginal in global discourse. Why the silence? Uncovering WWII=E2=80=99s history from Asia=E2=80=99s perspective exposes a= shameful truth: Western narratives, amplified by Hollywood and media, have selectively glorified some stories while erasing others. The result? Perpetrators are rehabilitated, and victims recast as villains. The West often clings to a biased stance that values some lives over others. Chinese victims have received scant global acknowledgment, their suffering overshadowed by Japan=E2=80=99s post-war redemption narrative. This hypocrisy echoes today = in Gaza, where selective outrage, tears for Ukraine but silence for 22 months of Gazan suffering under Israel=E2=80=99s policies, reveals the same double st= andard. European leaders, shaped by colonial legacies they frame as a =E2=80=9Ccivi= lizing mission,=E2=80=9D are complicit. Meanwhile, the U.S. fuels a trade war with China and, as Kaja Kallas and some media outlets warn, braces for broader conflict, while painting China as =E2=80=9Cauthori= tarian and belligerent.=E2=80=9D This clashes starkly with China=E2=80=99s anti-fa= scist history and its modern commitment to global peace. The adage that victors write history unravels here. China, a clear victor, was denied the platform to showcase its courage, sacrifices, and contributions. Today, it=E2=80=99s unjustly branded as a threat by Western discourse. World War II neither began nor ended in Europe. China, a founding UN member and the first to sign the UN Charter , remains its most steadfast supporter. It rejects the U.S.-dominated narrative, crafted by a latecomer to the war that suffered the least yet unleashed atomic devastation. China=E2=80=99s WWII legacy fuels its modern = mission: eradicating poverty, aiding the Global South, building global infrastructure, and championing peace and a shared future for mankind. Beijing=E2=80=99s commemoration is a bold rebuttal to the West=E2=80=99s mo= nopolization of WWII memory. As Warwick Powell aptly states : =E2=80=9CFor eight decades, the West has rewritten World War II as an U.S. = and European victory, relegating China to footnote status. China=E2=80=99s commemoration this year challenges that amnesia, reclaiming the country=E2= =80=99s role as a central force in defeating fascism.=E2=80=9D In today=E2=80=99s t= roubled times, however, remembrance alone isn=E2=80=99t enough . >From Gaza to beyond, the fight against inhumanity and fascism demands we confront these historical blind spots and their modern echoes. *This article was produced by Globetrotter . * --000000000000e880bf063d74f661 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
August 28, 2025

A Black Hole in Collective Memory: China and WWII

Bilj= ana Vankovska

3D""

Photog= raph Source: Sha Fei =E2=80=93 Public Domain

As China prepares to commemorate the 80th anniversary of victory over fa= scism on=C2=A0September 3, 2025, global attenti= on turns to Beijing=E2=80=99s military parade. Speculation swirls about whi= ch world=C2=A0leaders=C2=A0will join President Xi Jinping=E2=80=94Putin=E2=80=99s presence is all but cert= ain, though=20 whispers of Trump attending seem far-fetched. Some peace=C2=A0advocates argue this moment offers a chance for global powers to reflect on World War II=E2=80=99s horrors, a sentiment aligned with the UN Charter=E2=80=99= s spirit and=20 urgent amid rising global tensions. Yet, European leaders=E2=80=99 refusal = to=20 attend, citing concerns about=C2=A0offending=C2= =A0Japan, reveals a deeper issue. China=E2=80=99s commemoration closes the cycle of = WWII=20 anniversaries, but it begs a critical question: do we truly understand=20 this war=E2=80=99s global scope, or have we allowed vital chapters to fade = into=20 obscurity?

A glaring gap exists in our collective memory of World War II=E2=80=94a = war=20 we call =E2=80=9Cglobal,=E2=80=9D yet one where the role of the fourth alli= ed victor,=20 China, is consistently sidelined. China entered the conflict first in=C2=A01931, not 1939, and endured until Japan=E2=80=99s surrender in 1945. Over 14 yea= rs,=20 it suffered approximately 35 million casualties and tied down a million=20 Japanese troops, enabling the USSR and USA to focus elsewhere. Leaders=20 like Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin acknowledged China=E2=80=99s pivotal = role=20 in shaping the war=E2=80=99s outcome. So why is this contribution so often= =20 ignored and buried under layers of Western-focused narratives?

For many, World War II=E2=80=99s defining tragedy is the atomic bombing = of=20 Hiroshima and Nagasaki, horrific acts that serve as a stark warning of=20 humanity=E2=80=99s destructive power, unleashed by the United States. These= =20 events deserve remembrance, but the subsequent U.S. occupation of Japan=20 and the imposed peace constitution (also known as the MacArthur=20 Constitution) were less about harmony than securing a strategic foothold in the Indo-Pacific during the Cold War. Today, Japan arms itself under the U.S. nuclear=C2=A0umbrella, ostensibly to<= a href=3D"https://media.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3Db02aceea9cb578= af543d3029c&id=3D47fac575f7&e=3Dab710e72ba" target=3D"_blank" rel= =3D"noopener noreferrer">=C2=A0counter a =E2=80=9Cthreat=E2=80=9D from = China. This narrative twist is as convenient as it is misleading.

Like Russia, which fiercely preserves its WW II sacrifices, China now demands recognition for its own. Its resistance to Japanese militarism=20 remains a largely untold saga. A glimpse into this =E2=80=9Cblack hole=E2=80=9D of collective memory reveals atrocities that defy comprehension: the=20 Nanjing Massacre of 1937, where 300,000 civilians were killed and mass=20 rapes committed; Unit 731=E2=80=99s chemical and biological experiments on= =20 prisoners, including children, so vile they shocked even Nazi observers. German envoys urged Berlin to restrain Tokyo, while Japanese records=20 meticulously documented their brutal chaos. Brave Japanese=C2=A0historians=C2=A0have since exposed these horrors, yet they= remain marginal in global discourse. Why the silence?

Uncovering WWII=E2=80=99s history from Asia=E2=80=99s perspective expose= s a shameful=20 truth: Western narratives, amplified by Hollywood and media, have=20 selectively glorified some stories while erasing others. The result?=20 Perpetrators are rehabilitated, and victims recast as villains. The West often clings to a biased stance that values some lives over others.=20 Chinese victims have received scant global acknowledgment, their=20 suffering overshadowed by Japan=E2=80=99s post-war redemption narrative. Th= is=20 hypocrisy echoes today in Gaza, where selective outrage, tears for=20 Ukraine but silence for 22 months of Gazan suffering under Israel=E2=80=99s= =20 policies, reveals the same double standard. European leaders, shaped by=20 colonial legacies they frame as a =E2=80=9Ccivilizing mission,=E2=80=9D are= complicit.=20 Meanwhile, the U.S. fuels a=C2=A0trade war=C2= =A0with China and, as Kaja=C2=A0Kallas and some= =C2=A0media=C2=A0outlets warn, braces for broader conflict, while painting China as=20 =E2=80=9Cauthoritarian and belligerent.=E2=80=9D This clashes starkly with = China=E2=80=99s=20 anti-fascist history and its modern commitment to global peace.

The adage that victors write history unravels here. China, a clear=20 victor, was denied the platform to showcase its courage, sacrifices, and contributions. Today, it=E2=80=99s unjustly branded as a threat by Western= =20 discourse. World War II neither began nor ended in Europe. China, a=20 founding UN member and the first to sign the=C2=A0U= N Charter, remains its most steadfast supporter. It rejects the U.S.-dominated=20 narrative, crafted by a latecomer to the war that suffered the least yet unleashed atomic devastation. China=E2=80=99s WWII legacy fuels its modern= =20 mission: eradicating poverty, aiding the Global South, building global=20 infrastructure, and championing peace and a=C2=A0sh= ared=C2=A0future for mankind.

Beijing=E2=80=99s commemoration is a bold rebuttal to the West=E2=80=99s= monopolization of WWII memory. As Warwick Powell aptly=C2=A0states: =E2=80=9CFor eight decades, the West has rewritten World War II as an U.S.= and=20 European victory, relegating China to footnote status. China=E2=80=99s=20 commemoration this year challenges that amnesia, reclaiming the=20 country=E2=80=99s role as a central force in defeating fascism.=E2=80=9D In= today=E2=80=99s=20 troubled times, however, remembrance alone isn=E2=80=99t=C2=A0enough. From=C2=A0Gaza to beyond= , the fight against inhumanity and fascism demands we confront these histor= ical blind spots and their modern echoes.

This article was produced by=C2=A0Globetrott= er.=C2=A0


--000000000000e880bf063d74f661-- From cwfresidence@gmail.com Thu Aug 28 16:14:38 2025 Return-Path: X-Original-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Delivered-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Received: from mlm0.listserve.net (mlm0.listserve.net [161.35.233.68]) by mlm2.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id 8C892B0851 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:14:38 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 mlm2.listserve.net 8C892B0851 Authentication-Results: mlm2.listserve.net; dkim=pass (2048-bit key) header.d=gmail.com header.i=@gmail.com header.b="Wb3/NOp4" Received: by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) id 7CC07BD02E; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:14:38 -0700 (PDT) Delivered-To: salon@listserve.com Received: from mail-ej1-f54.google.com (mail-ej1-f54.google.com [209.85.218.54]) by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 52CF5BD029 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:14:38 -0700 (PDT) Received: by mail-ej1-f54.google.com with SMTP id a640c23a62f3a-afcb7ace3baso255467066b.3 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:14:38 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20230601; t=1756422877; x=1757027677; darn=listserve.com; h=to:subject:message-id:date:from:mime-version:from:to:cc:subject :date:message-id:reply-to; bh=zABX5b9OVYcIrXaJ68bbtXDFqqpYgLCNWhwDDyWI/wQ=; b=Wb3/NOp4uP0aYyZS5GUsmHyzbIg8yspQY6IhQpUprAQGhCEK5ZEZcOGOJvbdOGzeJx jg2tfEXEMd/DnWGR0XXUltAmtoxfXg7/5kYcHonRimAF/hNdzZhuYMv5KqIyaleO3TcB iEVl0Q+eSi+Mysm5uxSR4mBmbvmIRS65W7QxlbZtdUBwrX1yRDbPT5a4t2/Jy31kqU08 2i0mlLqteteHc0p7cxjandORgs3E99+d6WA6mmKfGpg1k1ZvQ7qISavFrzLo5icxVNtu MedFbqPi51d5cAXqSWwVPLYMqWYv+4/D5rVsDYvJ7vhXiXNBcCL6VLQnbBN+o9oFGU53 smug== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20230601; t=1756422877; x=1757027677; h=to:subject:message-id:date:from:mime-version:x-gm-message-state :from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=zABX5b9OVYcIrXaJ68bbtXDFqqpYgLCNWhwDDyWI/wQ=; b=NaKJQcdCVcR+afN7GxV8pGRcCPstqYo1iWzezkvjjuB/oNb40wHA7R9X+HBc/i+kNn crOmjbuDwZXscgDnUEgb+PUVcmXl9d46Gy3wMT1zEaumxYqqIgWVLJXfISAKNtJdUe2G nEEhFrgOq5Az8YA/g/IBtVjeab420abe9+qyaeCIvqF+NWFIdM01JJM1Ym5ytoS3pGHU JBIP3125XRlo8JRT8ZoFbztP6qPckh8HQCDt7HTnW0yLGynO4g/ffHouZvnZOxEd2YeV 4PKXYGY75Kj7TPr391eRv0j0LSyfEceyhDQwi11Ux8c5r2FGwnXVoO5B574b4gYn2S7+ 5oQw== X-Gm-Message-State: AOJu0YxBA5V8ELRp3il2xvmjtht2DOLRBBYSjDR1vKzk9/1Jhmn+dYtU rlXiM3oSM/FIykzD24LyrphCeCxcrdYxwjdEo3dU2Me35Df8K5u48olXa4TWKFfCet84+m5Ac6i QUJEN3ejrT6zqWKCVm8jFZAC9K3A3nfiiXn13 X-Gm-Gg: ASbGncsw+Pi9MBCo258l8VxhxsqSx5XOJH90v1wCzqy4/25aEPeWmx2YA02uiHeH2hM 0EAWOtxuEMbBaPe1zMPvOgfcDdKdAnExMikCC+aifJRmM3h6l6321a/bVYlOsWGNBohHqwa1lJY OoVrRbgGX0Knre1cEWKRWIXGpmXKk4AwcOyaCB9jd+KFuc2LTmRcfap0A9L1XPdxHHPYaMiyRJh nScpjKHtTy3VLormreG/dYUBT3cIW+i6toe51Z+R13o5dgMTbJfR83RwygtLc73BHmwWdKQRlea bMW75J9w0GQpvNJGtUwiRS8PCnBoqbLOLmet4igD3scBjoNbVqQqp6C72eWxskfs2OvQzHMd4gA 0VMWNFoNyTNs3k58/byEU X-Google-Smtp-Source: AGHT+IG0QyfgGsU6Co/aC9s6dq5zQozT5D+jOWc4TXdX0/JwwXqObkhY2PutK/k1khpt2YYZk63Gdr9fBcgmdF3VYYg= X-Received: by 2002:a17:907:9706:b0:afe:dc88:e6a with SMTP id a640c23a62f3a-afedc88950bmr466469666b.13.1756422876254; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:14:36 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 From: Chas Freeman Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 19:14:21 -0400 X-Gm-Features: Ac12FXzUeBkW5oDEYJb_tJez9pt-EnkakIt26rATdGIenCsDYEsBYU7h8elSfio Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0000000000009d5590063d751115" Subject: [Salon] RFK, Jr Is A Serial Killer X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:14:38 -0000 --0000000000009d5590063d751115 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable RFK, Jr Is A Serial Killer And the death toll will be unimaginable Rick Wilson Aug 28 Call yesterday Black Wednesday for American health. RFK, Jr., heroin addict, sex addict, anti-vaccination lunatic and aspiring architect of millions of deaths purged the CDC last night. He gutted the world=E2=80=99s premiere public-health agency in his endless quest to destr= oy vaccine science and plunge this nation into the Middle Ages. It is widely reported that Kennedy has ordered a clampdown on reporting of COVID and human cases of H5N1 bird flu, and that he plans to entirely ban COVID-19 vaccines in the coming months. He has already cut access to COVID-19 vaccines, restricting it to adults 65+ and in high risk categories= . RFK is purging the CDC so he can replace professional doctors, scientists, epidemiologists, virologists, and public-health experts with antivax cranks, horse-dewormer morons, radical eugenicists, and inhumane conspiracy screamers. A month after a mad gunman (an antivax activist) charged the CDC on a killing spree, Bobby Brainworm fired Dr. Susan Monarez, the CDC=E2=80= =99s director. More firings and resignations followed. And let=E2=80=99s be clear about one thing: this isn=E2=80=99t just Kennedy= ; these firings were endorsed by Donald Trump directly: At 9:30 p.m., a spokesman for President Trump, Kush Desai, said in an email that Dr. Monarez was =E2=80=9Cnot aligned with the President=E2=80=99s agen= da of Making America Healthy Again,=E2=80=9D and so =E2=80=9Cthe White House has termina= ted Monarez from her position with the C.D.C.=E2=80=9D Senior CDC members chose to resign, and one, Dr. Demetre C. Daskalakis wrote what I consider powerful and morally fiery letter of resignation that not only made the detonated the RFK Jr antivax world-view in its with precision and clarity, but was an example for other people of good faith inside this government. You cannot =E2=80=9Csteer the ship.=E2=80=9D You cannot =E2=80=9Cwork insid= e the system.=E2=80=9D You cannot =E2=80=9Cbring the Trump folks around.=E2=80=9D They are nihilists o= n their best days, autocrats on their worst. They value nothing but power, and will stack the bodies of Americans in service to their umber god and his foul cult. Read the whole thing. I=E2=80=99ve boldfaced one important graf. Well done,= Dr. Daskalakis. Well done. Dear Dr. Houry, I am writing to formally resign from my position as Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), effective August 28, 2025, close of business. I am happy to stay on for two weeks to provide transition, if requested. This decision has not come easily, as I deeply value the work that the CDC does in safeguarding public health and am proud of my contributions to that critical mission. However, after much contemplation and reflection on recent developments and perspectives brought to light by Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., I find that the views he and his staff have shared challenge my ability to continue in my current role at the agency and in the service of the health of the American people. Enough is enough. While I hold immense respect for the institution and my colleagues, I believe that it is imperative to align my professional responsibilities to my system of ethics and my understanding of the science of infectious disease, immunology, and my promise to serve the American people. This step is necessary to ensure that I can contribute effectively in a capacity that allows me to remain true to my principles. I am unable to serve in an environment that treats CDC as a tool to generate policies and materials that do not reflect scientific reality and are designed to hurt rather than to improve the public=E2=80=99s health. Th= e recent change in the adult and children=E2=80=99s immunization schedule threaten t= he lives of the youngest Americans and pregnant people. The data analyses that supported this decision have never been shared with CDC despite my respectful requests to HHS and other leadership. This lack of meaningful engagement was further compounded by a =E2=80=9Cfrequently asked questions= =E2=80=9D document written to support the Secretary=E2=80=99s directive that was circ= ulated by HHS without input from CDC subject matter experts and that cited studies that did not support the conclusions that were attributed to these authors. Having worked in local and national public health for years, I have never experienced such radical non-transparency, nor have I seen such unskilled manipulation of data to achieve a political end rather than the good of the American people. It is untenable to serve in an organization that is not afforded the opportunity to discuss decisions of scientific and public health importance released under the moniker of CDC. The lack of communication by HHS and other CDC political leadership that culminates in social media posts announcing major policy changes without prior notice demonstrate a disregard of normal communication channels and common sense. Having to retrofit analyses and policy actions to match inadequately thought-out announcements in poorly scripted videos or page long X posts should not be how organizations responsible for the health of people should function. Some examples include the announcement of the change in the COVID-19 recommendations for children and pregnant people, the firing of scientists from ACIP by X post and an op-ed rather than direct communication with these valuable experts, the announcement of new ACIP members by X before onboarding and vetting have completed, and the release of term of reference for an ACIP workgroup that ignored all feedback from career staff at CDC. The recent term of reference for the COVID vaccine work group created by this ACIP puts people of dubious intent and more dubious scientific rigor in charge of recommending vaccine policy to a director hamstrung and sidelined by an authoritarian leader. Their desire to please a political base will result in death and disability of vulnerable children and adults. Their base should be the people they serve not a political voting bloc. I have always been first to challenge scientific and public health dogma in my career and was excited by the opportunity to do so again. I was optimistic that there would be an opportunity to brief the Secretary about key topics such as measles, avian influenza, and the highly coordinated approach to the respiratory virus season. Such briefings would allow exchange of ideas and a shared path to support the vision of =E2=80=9CMakin= g America Healthy Again.=E2=80=9D We are seven months into the new administra= tion, and no CDC subject matter expert from my Center has ever briefed the Secretary. I am not sure who the Secretary is listening to, but it is quite certainly not to us. Unvetted and conflicted outside organizations seem to be the sources HHS use over the gold standard science of CDC and other reputable sources. At a hearing, Secretary Kennedy said that Americans should not take medical advice from him. To the contrary, an appropriately briefed and inquisitive Secretary should be a source of health information for the people he serves. As it stands now, I must agree with him, that he should not be considered a source of accurate information. The intentional eroding of trust in low-risk vaccines favoring natural infection and unproven remedies will bring us to a pre-vaccine era where only the strong will survive and many if not all will suffer. I believe in nutrition and exercise. I believe in making our food supply healthier, and I also believe in using vaccines to prevent death and disability. Eugenics plays prominently in the rhetoric being generated and is derivative of a legacy that good medicine and science should continue to shun. The recent shooting at CDC is not why I am resigning. My grandfather, who I am named after, stood up to fascist forces in Greece and lost his life doing so. I am resigning to make him and his legacy proud. I am resigning because of the cowardice of a leader that cannot admit that HIS and his minions=E2=80=99 words over decades created an environment where violence l= ike this can occur. I reject his and his colleagues=E2=80=99 thoughts and prayers, a= nd advise they direct those to people that they have not actively harmed. For decades, I have been a trusted voice for the LGBTQ community when it comes to critical health topics. I must also cite the recklessness of the administration in their efforts to erase transgender populations, cease critical domestic and international HIV programming, and terminate key research to support equity as part of my decision. Public health is not merely about the health of the individual, but it is about the health of the community, the nation, the world. The nation=E2=80= =99s health security is at risk and is in the hands of people focusing on ideological self-interest. I want to express my heartfelt gratitude for the opportunities for growth, learning, and collaboration that I have been afforded during my time at the CDC. It has been a privilege to work alongside such dedicated professionals who are committed to improving the health and well-being of communities across the nation even when under attack from within both physically and psychologically. Thank you once again for the support and guidance I have received from you and previous CDC leadership throughout my tenure. I wish the CDC continued success in its vital mission and that HHS reverse its dangerous course to dismantle public health as a practice and as an institution. If they continue the current path, they risk our personal well-being and the security of the United States. Sincerely, Demetre C. Daskalakis MD MPH (he/his/him) I don=E2=80=99t know how this ends, but I know if it=E2=80=99s the last dam= n thing I do on this earth, this son of a bitch needs to be held to account. I=E2=80=99m in= favor of short show trial, then a choice of wolves, horsewhipping, or a brisk hanging from a local tree. --0000000000009d5590063d751115 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
RFK, Jr Is A Serial Killer

And the death toll will = be unimaginable

Rick Wilson
Aug 28

Call yesterday Black We= dnesday for American health.

RFK, Jr., heroin addict, sex addict, an= ti-vaccination lunatic and aspiring architect of millions of deaths purged = the CDC last night. He gutted the world=E2=80=99s premiere public-health ag= ency in his endless quest to destroy vaccine science and plunge this nation= into the Middle Ages.

It is widely reported that Kennedy has ordere= d a clampdown on reporting of COVID and human cases of H5N1 bird flu, and t= hat he plans to entirely ban COVID-19 vaccines in the coming months. He has= already cut access to COVID-19 vaccines, restricting it to adults 65+ and = in high risk categories.

RFK is purging the CDC so he can replace pr= ofessional doctors, scientists, epidemiologists, virologists, and public-he= alth experts with antivax cranks, horse-dewormer morons, radical eugenicist= s, and inhumane conspiracy screamers. A month after a mad gunman (an antiva= x activist) charged the CDC on a killing spree, Bobby Brainworm fired Dr. S= usan Monarez, the CDC=E2=80=99s director. More firings and resignations fol= lowed.

And let=E2=80=99s be clear about one thing: this isn=E2=80=99= t just Kennedy; these firings were endorsed by Donald Trump directly:
At 9:30 p.m., a spokesman for President Trump, Kush Desai, said in an ema= il that Dr. Monarez was =E2=80=9Cnot aligned with the President=E2=80=99s a= genda of Making America Healthy Again,=E2=80=9D and so =E2=80=9Cthe White H= ouse has terminated Monarez from her position with the C.D.C.=E2=80=9D
<= br>Senior CDC members chose to resign, and one, Dr. Demetre C. Daskalakis w= rote what I consider powerful and morally fiery letter of resignation that = not only made the detonated the RFK Jr antivax world-view in its with preci= sion and clarity, but was an example for other people of good faith inside = this government.

You cannot =E2=80=9Csteer the ship.=E2=80=9D You ca= nnot =E2=80=9Cwork inside the system.=E2=80=9D You cannot =E2=80=9Cbring th= e Trump folks around.=E2=80=9D They are nihilists on their best days, autoc= rats on their worst. They value nothing but power, and will stack the bodie= s of Americans in service to their umber god and his foul cult.

Read= the whole thing. I=E2=80=99ve boldfaced one important graf. Well done, Dr.= Daskalakis. Well done.

Dear Dr. Houry,

I am writing to forma= lly resign from my position as Director of the National Center for Immuniza= tion and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Preven= tion (CDC), effective August 28, 2025, close of business. I am happy to sta= y on for two weeks to provide transition, if requested.

This decisio= n has not come easily, as I deeply value the work that the CDC does in safe= guarding public health and am proud of my contributions to that critical mi= ssion. However, after much contemplation and reflection on recent developme= nts and perspectives brought to light by Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., I= find that the views he and his staff have shared challenge my ability to c= ontinue in my current role at the agency and in the service of the health o= f the American people. Enough is enough.

While I hold immense respec= t for the institution and my colleagues, I believe that it is imperative to= align my professional responsibilities to my system of ethics and my under= standing of the science of infectious disease, immunology, and my promise t= o serve the American people. This step is necessary to ensure that I can co= ntribute effectively in a capacity that allows me to remain true to my prin= ciples.

I am unable to serve in an environment that treats CDC as a = tool to generate policies and materials that do not reflect scientific real= ity and are designed to hurt rather than to improve the public=E2=80=99s he= alth. The recent change in the adult and children=E2=80=99s immunization sc= hedule threaten the lives of the youngest Americans and pregnant people. Th= e data analyses that supported this decision have never been shared with CD= C despite my respectful requests to HHS and other leadership. This lack of = meaningful engagement was further compounded by a =E2=80=9Cfrequently asked= questions=E2=80=9D document written to support the Secretary=E2=80=99s dir= ective that was circulated by HHS without input from CDC subject matter exp= erts and that cited studies that did not support the conclusions that were = attributed to these authors. Having worked in local and national public hea= lth for years, I have never experienced such radical non-transparency, nor = have I seen such unskilled manipulation of data to achieve a political end = rather than the good of the American people.

It is untenable to serv= e in an organization that is not afforded the opportunity to discuss decisi= ons of scientific and public health importance released under the moniker o= f CDC. The lack of communication by HHS and other CDC political leadership = that culminates in social media posts announcing major policy changes witho= ut prior notice demonstrate a disregard of normal communication channels an= d common sense. Having to retrofit analyses and policy actions to match ina= dequately thought-out announcements in poorly scripted videos or page long = X posts should not be how organizations responsible for the health of peopl= e should function. Some examples include the announcement of the change in = the COVID-19 recommendations for children and pregnant people, the firing o= f scientists from ACIP by X post and an op-ed rather than direct communicat= ion with these valuable experts, the announcement of new ACIP members by X = before onboarding and vetting have completed, and the release of term of re= ference for an ACIP workgroup that ignored all feedback from career staff a= t CDC.

The recent term of reference for the COVID vaccine work group= created by this ACIP puts people of dubious intent and more dubious scient= ific rigor in charge of recommending vaccine policy to a director hamstrung= and sidelined by an authoritarian leader. Their desire to please a politic= al base will result in death and disability of vulnerable children and adul= ts. Their base should be the people they serve not a political voting bloc.=

I have always been first to challenge scientific and public health = dogma in my career and was excited by the opportunity to do so again. I was= optimistic that there would be an opportunity to brief the Secretary about= key topics such as measles, avian influenza, and the highly coordinated ap= proach to the respiratory virus season. Such briefings would allow exchange= of ideas and a shared path to support the vision of =E2=80=9CMaking Americ= a Healthy Again.=E2=80=9D We are seven months into the new administration, = and no CDC subject matter expert from my Center has ever briefed the Secret= ary. I am not sure who the Secretary is listening to, but it is quite certa= inly not to us. Unvetted and conflicted outside organizations seem to be th= e sources HHS use over the gold standard science of CDC and other reputable= sources. At a hearing, Secretary Kennedy said that Americans should not ta= ke medical advice from him. To the contrary, an appropriately briefed and i= nquisitive Secretary should be a source of health information for the peopl= e he serves. As it stands now, I must agree with him, that he should not be= considered a source of accurate information.

The intentional erodin= g of trust in low-risk vaccines favoring natural infection and unproven rem= edies will bring us to a pre-vaccine era where only the strong will survive= and many if not all will suffer. I believe in nutrition and exercise. I be= lieve in making our food supply healthier, and I also believe in using vacc= ines to prevent death and disability. Eugenics plays prominently in the rhe= toric being generated and is derivative of a legacy that good medicine and = science should continue to shun.

The recent shooting at CDC is not w= hy I am resigning. My grandfather, who I am named after, stood up to fascis= t forces in Greece and lost his life doing so. I am resigning to make him a= nd his legacy proud. I am resigning because of the cowardice of a leader th= at cannot admit that HIS and his minions=E2=80=99 words over decades create= d an environment where violence like this can occur. I reject his and his c= olleagues=E2=80=99 thoughts and prayers, and advise they direct those to pe= ople that they have not actively harmed.

For decades, I have been a = trusted voice for the LGBTQ community when it comes to critical health topi= cs. I must also cite the recklessness of the administration in their effort= s to erase transgender populations, cease critical domestic and internation= al HIV programming, and terminate key research to support equity as part of= my decision.

Public health is not merely about the health of the in= dividual, but it is about the health of the community, the nation, the worl= d. The nation=E2=80=99s health security is at risk and is in the hands of p= eople focusing on ideological self-interest.

I want to express my he= artfelt gratitude for the opportunities for growth, learning, and collabora= tion that I have been afforded during my time at the CDC. It has been a pri= vilege to work alongside such dedicated professionals who are committed to = improving the health and well-being of communities across the nation even w= hen under attack from within both physically and psychologically.

Th= ank you once again for the support and guidance I have received from you an= d previous CDC leadership throughout my tenure. I wish the CDC continued su= ccess in its vital mission and that HHS reverse its dangerous course to dis= mantle public health as a practice and as an institution. If they continue = the current path, they risk our personal well-being and the security of the= United States.

Sincerely, Demetre C. Daskalakis MD MPH (he/his/him)=

I don=E2=80=99t know how this ends, but I know if it=E2=80=99s the = last damn thing I do on this earth, this son of a bitch needs to be held to= account. I=E2=80=99m in favor of short show trial, then a choice of wolves= , horsewhipping, or a brisk hanging from a local tree.

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Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:36:04 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 From: Chas Freeman Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 19:35:49 -0400 X-Gm-Features: Ac12FXw8-iN_ole3sCjNsNoGjOxLEOvud-VXgId4ZC812WH8ojuSfrlJuEKCLFY Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="00000000000069baeb063d755e25" Subject: [Salon] Did Europe just make war with Iran more likely? X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:36:07 -0000 --00000000000069baeb063d755e25 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Did Europe just make war with Iran more likely? Trita Parsi Aug 28, 2025 https://responsiblestatecraft.org/europe-iran-sanctions/ France, Germany, and the UK (E3) have announced they will trigger snapback sanctions on Iran at the United Nations. This will launch a 30-day process that will likely culminate in the full reinstatement of all U.N. sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal. The move will carry four major consequences. First, the U.N. Security Council will formally adopt the demand =E2=80=94 p= ushed by Israel =E2=80=94 that Iran cease all uranium enrichment. Israel designed this demand to sabotage nuclear diplomacy and edge the conflict toward war. Next, a U.N. arms embargo on Iran will return, potentially curbing Tehran= =E2=80=99s ability to rebuild deterrence against future Israeli or American strikes, provided Russia and China treat the snapback as legitimate and enforce it. Third, Iran=E2=80=99s already fragile economy will deteriorate further; its currency has already taken a hit. And finally, far from advancing diplomacy, the measure risks accelerating escalation. While Israel hardly needs a pretext to launch another strike on Iran, as I have *argued* , snapback could provide useful political cover =E2=80=94 a thin veneer of le= gitimacy =E2=80=94 for renewed attacks. The E3 argues that snapback is necessary to pressure Iran into resuming talks with the U.S. and granting the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to its nuclear facilities, including disclosure of the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. On the surface, these demands may seem reasonable. But Tehran has legitimate reservations. Iranian officials suspect the IAEA of leaking sensitive information that enabled Mossad=E2=80=99s assassination campaign = against their nuclear scientists, and they fear that revealing the stockpile=E2=80= =99s location could simply invite another round of U.S. airstrikes. Moreover, Iran was at the negotiating table when Israel and the U.S. began bombing it. The E3 now insists Tehran return to talks, yet they make no parallel demand that Washington refrain from bombing again. Perhaps most importantly, given the unbridgeable gap over enrichment, Trump=E2=80=99s limited patience for diplomacy, and Israeli pressure to res= ume hostilities, restarting talks that are almost certain to collapse =E2=80=94= unless both sides show greater flexibility on enrichment =E2=80=94 only increases = the likelihood that war will start sooner rather than later.. But that may well be the point. The E3 of today bears little resemblance to the one of two decades ago. When it was created in 2003, its purpose was to prevent the Bush administration =E2=80=94 fresh off its disastrous and ille= gal invasion of Iraq =E2=80=94 from launching another war, this time against Ir= an. Today, the geopolitical context has shifted. Iran=E2=80=99s alignment with = Russia in Ukraine has recast it as a direct threat in Europe=E2=80=99s eyes. The E= U is also far more dependent on the transatlantic relationship than it was 20 years ago, while successive rounds of sanctions have rendered Iran a negligible economic partner for Europe . Escalation with Iran through snapback now serves two EU objectives: punishing Tehran for supporting Russia in Ukraine, and aligning Europe with hawkish elements in the Trump administration =E2=80=94 an alignment calculated to ease tensions in other areas of a transatlantic relationship under unprecedented duress. In this sense, the E3 constellation that was designed in 2003 to prevent war may, in 2025, be pushing us closer to one. But don=E2=80=99t take it from me. After all, Germany=E2=80=99s chancellor = has openly admitted that Israel =E2=80=9C*did Europe=E2=80=99s dirty work for it* =E2=80=9D by bombing Iran in June. --00000000000069baeb063d755e25 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Did Europe just make war wi= th Iran more likely?

Trita Parsi
Aug 28, 2025
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/europe-iran-sanctions/

=C2=A0

France, Germany, an= d the UK (E3) have announced they will trigger snapback sanctions on=C2=A0<= a href=3D"https://tritaparsi.us7.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3D422e58ecac= b6f5ce044efe488&id=3D529f297e50&e=3Dba0ace703b" style=3D"color:rgb(= 0,124,137);font-weight:normal;text-decoration:underline" target=3D"_blank">= Iran=C2=A0at the United Nations. This will launch a 30-day process that will likely=20 culminate in the full reinstatement of all U.N. sanctions lifted under=20 the 2015 nuclear deal. The move will carry four major consequences.

First, the U.N. Sec= urity Council will formally adopt the demand =E2=80=94 pushed by=C2=A0Isra= el=C2=A0=E2=80=94 that Iran cease all uranium enrichment. Israel designed this demand to=20 sabotage nuclear diplomacy and edge the conflict toward war.

Next, a U.N. arms embargo on Iran will return, potentially curbing Tehran=E2=80= =99s=20 ability to rebuild deterrence against future Israeli or American=20 strikes, provided=C2=A0Russia=C2=A0and=C2=A0China=C2=A0treat the = snapback as legitimate and enforce it.

Third, Iran=E2=80= =99s already fragile economy will deteriorate further; its currency has alr= eady taken a hit.

And finally, far from advancing diplomacy, the measure risks accelerating=20 escalation. While Israel hardly needs a pretext to launch another strike on Iran, as I have=C2=A0argued, sn= apback could provide useful political cover =E2=80=94 a thin veneer of legi= timacy =E2=80=94 for renewed attacks.

The E3 argues that snapback is necessary to pressure Iran into resuming=20 talks with the U.S. and granting the International Atomic Energy Agency=20 (IAEA) access to its nuclear facilities, including disclosure of the=20 stockpile of 60% enriched uranium.

On the surface, these demands may seem reasonable. But Tehran has=20 legitimate reservations. Iranian officials suspect the IAEA of leaking=20 sensitive information that enabled Mossad=E2=80=99s assassination campaign= =20 against their nuclear scientists, and they fear that revealing the=20 stockpile=E2=80=99s location could simply invite another round of U.S.=20 airstrikes.

Moreover, Iran was at the negotiating table when Israel and the U.S. began=20 bombing it. The E3 now insists Tehran return to talks, yet they make no=20 parallel demand that Washington refrain from bombing again.

Perhaps most importantly, given the unbridgeable gap over enrichment, Trump=E2=80= =99s=20 limited patience for diplomacy, and Israeli pressure to resume=20 hostilities, restarting talks that are almost certain to collapse =E2=80=94= =20 unless both sides show greater flexibility on enrichment =E2=80=94 only=20 increases the likelihood that war will start sooner rather than later..

But that may well be the point. The E3 of today bears little resemblance to the one of two decades ago. When it was created in 2003, its purpose=20 was to prevent the Bush administration =E2=80=94 fresh off its disastrous a= nd=20 illegal invasion of Iraq =E2=80=94 from launching another war, this time ag= ainst Iran.

Today, the geopolitical context has shifted. Iran=E2=80=99s alignment with Russia= in=20 Ukraine has recast it as a direct threat in Europe=E2=80=99s eyes. The EU i= s=20 also far more dependent on the transatlantic relationship than it was 20 years ago, while successive rounds of sanctions have rendered Iran a=20 negligible economic partner for=C2=A0Europe.

Escalation with Iran through snapback now serves two EU objectives: punishing=20 Tehran for supporting Russia in Ukraine, and aligning Europe with=20 hawkish elements in the=C2=A0Trump administration=C2=A0=E2=80=94 an al= ignment calculated to ease tensions in other areas of a transatlantic relat= ionship under unprecedented duress.

In this sense, the = E3 constellation that was designed in 2003 to prevent war may, in 2025, be = pushing us closer to one.

But don=E2=80=99t t= ake it from me. After all, Germany=E2=80=99s chancellor has openly admitted= that Israel =E2=80=9Cdid Europe=E2=80=99s = dirty work for it=E2=80=9D by bombing Iran in June.


--00000000000069baeb063d755e25-- From cwfresidence@gmail.com Thu Aug 28 16:42:54 2025 Return-Path: X-Original-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Delivered-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Received: from mlm0.listserve.net (mlm0.listserve.net [161.35.233.68]) by mlm2.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id 6C0B5B0851 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:42:54 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 mlm2.listserve.net 6C0B5B0851 Authentication-Results: mlm2.listserve.net; dkim=pass (2048-bit key) header.d=gmail.com header.i=@gmail.com header.b="PIVB+Sne" Received: by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) id 623A1BD02E; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:42:54 -0700 (PDT) Delivered-To: salon@listserve.com Received: from mail-ej1-f47.google.com (mail-ej1-f47.google.com [209.85.218.47]) by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 313B9BD029 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:42:54 -0700 (PDT) Received: by mail-ej1-f47.google.com with SMTP id a640c23a62f3a-afebe21a1c0so237227866b.1 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:42:54 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20230601; t=1756424572; x=1757029372; darn=listserve.com; h=to:subject:message-id:date:from:in-reply-to:references:mime-version :from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=mV5oYl2QIO5Go1tnfJ4CwBtuvs+0sUG+NufOBk9TAwE=; b=PIVB+SneXP/aEWCSj51XJ84LVMV7NIaWrn3sjvV4xGsZV4/aqWYoW0mEo3G8YboQRf bXMcW9uzAXVqjfL9pruDiDKpZAWh+XgljSsSQPA7azc6geyzPg/sGWhNKvdBZ5ynJcbt 1s/Hbv4WefaJ3VOUQgB9busV4VjYRF4tw5RD/jOFGN+YGahK5/tZo0lULHD/YrgE/If7 Gdk0vBSmh6vySJPfI4rBfebDMol6umyX6nGYr7GTmpi1bn15fOU/+lSZKb8qv4UE8EhC yKtYG5MZJqXJl/V9EeFNp7p/IG8nMQyDW1FGaUdtRIOLmxr2GSE+CX/Hlqlc4IO97x0Q mYVA== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20230601; t=1756424572; x=1757029372; h=to:subject:message-id:date:from:in-reply-to:references:mime-version :x-gm-message-state:from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=mV5oYl2QIO5Go1tnfJ4CwBtuvs+0sUG+NufOBk9TAwE=; b=hWJzL0xcfFNYmLtXrfqhEBwgNdshaYCxw5cSlD5VYXRTLK05MBclScjEa8ui8zRIzr pyFAXSMb/O3CNf9Tm3uQmF0MkeEVTOJvJXzH3721sPsMDwon/gd6yN1/1VfQ1L3nER5A RrBVQouQFZRzNe4EV4o5noTCK4fEmKpU4fHzC7LCf2G9O28OMyafLKOOFKwZ2iaj4F7P g4N0OUHRb6FcHouPnC9ranVAWrZ0h9ZzZ19TXLZwOV9nEsmC85oToWViIjRvTVD2gxKY Syv8PyrwTKyCMNEhO1j/LkdCBICye9CnsLCLaSkpl+/hS52C92QOoHuzDU7qxQwNIf69 hg5w== X-Gm-Message-State: AOJu0YwGgs0b6ObS9Is8MjiLZsZ3QfCU7G6MWlmroGk7DwYO3dq/1k3T dIhzeFN4nYp7ZFv3ttXry0o6YMbOu2Y0TThtpJJCZrkFKxHR2UtAQ6FLUE8021IqBgR2hVckCrT JxIZi4aYjz6PbnwIjO/2iYps361obYKqOOg== X-Gm-Gg: ASbGncvNq8RFTOvP+RWVTD8fJ64G488yamaZfJm1jdVoH6cE1Z4MRT93kjp9rKU9loB U2kSRfmCy4x4FYt8WrlD0PZss4zw5/atWr0bOHSLSi70eAwBiaOksGvumIr4h+tUORjqZWl3vAq hg4w6JFMLFLqWpDqn5qmAXEmgXXFvS0hny+VT9BNijsD5br+tHOnzxEkbJFbJ3//96xiPkV3MxP S+QJz/3satGT3JX6QU3P5W4KJsZgQZ2IJU0wtm3W75283I9N3hTqUud/EOdvHj248//kBLXy/Mz Q5ZL5YRKdKw8tfJcrkUC6TiK6kBZejiczg/KfgF6wW/L6dHDP2rXg3KbRMRQZNKM3GQZjFVsi9n hV4Z+c/vgzQ== X-Google-Smtp-Source: AGHT+IHWMR8V61Xa/YBLAnM0zbbamLMA7tpP2mwM8CL66vOzDOp7qBq3lWQkMBOMVJMxkjqNAnQpmTY7e5p3Z1p4ng0= X-Received: by 2002:a17:907:7242:b0:afe:9f26:5819 with SMTP id a640c23a62f3a-afe9f265912mr1095894166b.28.1756424572183; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:42:52 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 19:42:37 -0400 X-Gm-Features: Ac12FXw3dJLgQ8Q6NM4kOjJ6AEdByD4NpUe-yWZCSNUSDbX5rsOJPmbcQx5V7HA Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000b327f2063d7576fd" Subject: [Salon] On the latest budget crisis in France X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:42:54 -0000 --000000000000b327f2063d7576fd Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable [image: Francois Bayrou Emmanuel Macron] Europe facing revolts, promising more guns with no money France may be the latest domino to fall as debt crisis sparks an austerity backlash Anatol Lieven Aug 28, 2025 If you wanted to create a classic recipe for political crisis, you could well choose a mixture of a stagnant economy, a huge and growing public debt, a perceived *need* radically to increase military spending, an immigration crisis, a deeply unpopular president, a government without a majority in parliament, and growing radical parties on the right and left. In other words, France today. And France=E2=80=99s crisis is only one part = of the growing crisis of Western Europe as a whole, with serious implications for the future of transatlantic relations. The latest shock in France has come with the *announcement* by Prime Minister Francois Bayrou that he will call a parliamentary vote of confidence on September 8 over his plan for =E2=82=AC43.8 billion ($51.1 bi= llion) in budget cuts to address France=E2=80=99s budget deficit 5.8 percent of GD= P =E2=80=94 almost double the three percent that is supposed to be the limit for members of the Eurozone, and the highest in Europe after Greece and Italy, leading to a debt to GDP ratio of 113 percent. French GDP growth last year was only 1.2 percent and the economy is *projected* to grow by a mere 0.6 percent this year. Bayrou=E2=80=99s plan includes the freezing of welfare payments, reductions= in pensioners=E2=80=99 benefits, the abolition of two national holidays, deep = cuts to state jobs, and unspecified tax increases for the wealthy. The only area of state spending that will increase is the military =E2=80=94 and it is Presi= dent Macron=E2=80=99s pledge (in line with the promise of Europe=E2=80=99s NATO = members to President Trump) radically to increase military spending that has brought France=E2=80=99s fiscal crisis to a head. This would involve the French military budget rising from around two percent now to 3.5 percent (plus another 1.5 percent in =E2=80=9Cdefense-re= lated=E2=80=9D infrastructure spending). In July, Macron *promised* that the French military budget would reach =E2=82=AC64 billion in 2027, th= ree years earlier than previously planned and twice the figure in 2017. He also *promised* that this would not involve any increase in debt. Bayrou=E2=80=99s thankles= s task is to try to reconcile these two promises. Bayrou is prime minister today because his predecessor, Michel Barnier, was *ousted* nine months ago in a vote of no confidence after he passed the 2025 budget by emergency decree having failed to gain a parliamentary majority for budget cuts. This was the first time a government had been ousted by a no confidence vote since 1962. Bayrou stands a very good chance of being the second premier in a year to fall this way. On the face of it, his challenge looks insuperable. The loose coalition of centrist parties that supports the government was beaten in the snap *elections* called by Macron in the summer of 2024, and despite an election deal with the left in the second round to keep National Rally (which won a plurality of votes) down to third place in the number of seats, have only 210 seats in the National Assembly, compared to 142 for the radical rightists National Rally and its allies, and 180 for the left-wing New Popular Front. Both of these groupings have declared that they will vote to oust the government if it persists with its budget plan. The socialists are strongly opposed to austerity measures, and are allied with trades unions that have *announced* a nationwide strike on September 10 to block the budget. As for Marine le Pen, leader of the National Rally, her friendliness towards the government is hardly likely to have been increased by what many see as a politically-motivated legal case launched against her by the government, which (unless overturned on appeal) will lead to her being banned from standing in the next presidential elections. If Bayrou=E2=80=99s government falls, there are likely to be fresh parliame= ntary elections; and the premier=E2=80=99s best chance may be that neither of the opposition blocs are afraid that the French public would blame them for a new political crisis, and that if the government is prepared to abandon some of its budget cuts (or covertly abandon the case against Le Pen), one or other could abstain in the no-confidence vote, leading to a government victory. his is far from certain however. Radical socialist leader Jean-Luc Melenchon has already said that Macron himself should resign if the government loses new elections. The implications of this crisis extend far beyond the borders of France. Bayrou has *warned* that if it does not reduce its debt, France will risk the fate of Greece after the 2008 financial crisis, when it suffered years of recession and very harsh and bitterly unpopular austerity measures imposed by the European Union (at the instigation of Germany) as a condition of its bailouts. It seems inconceivable however that Brussels would be able to impose such austerity measures on France, the second largest economy in the EU. Presiding over deepening economic decline would be the politically easier choice. Moreover Germany, the largest economy, is facing severe budgetary problems of its own. Disputes over the budget brought down the last German coalition government. The present coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats have *agreed* (despite deep unhappiness among fiscal conservatives in the CDU) to increase borrowing from =E2=82=AC33 billion in 2024 to =E2=82=AC81 billion = this year and =E2=82=AC126 billion in 2029 in order to pay for a doubling of Germany=E2= =80=99s military spending and huge (and badly needed) investment in infrastructure. Economists are warning however that this will not be sustainable without cuts in social welfare. As elsewhere in Europe, Germany=E2=80=99s problems = in this regard are being worsened by its aging population, which both reduces the tax base and creates a huge lobby against cuts to pensions and healthcare. The German elections in February saw a surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which opinion polls now *show* as close to overtaking the Christian Democrats as the most popular party. If this rise is sustained up to the next German national elections due in 2029, then one of two things will happen: either the other parties will maintain their =E2=80=9Cfirewall=E2=80=9D against allowing AfD into government, which will= require a permanent, unstable and deeply divided coalition of perhaps all the other parties against them, or the firewall will collapse, leading to a German government far to the right of anything seen since 1945. In Britain too, the Labour government of Keir Starmer is deeply *unpopular* . It has suffered two humiliating *revolts * by its own MPs against its attempts to cut social welfare so as to increase military spending and is facing the defection of many of its voters to a new left-wing party. *Debt* to GDP stands at 103 percent and rising. As in France and Germany, the right-wing populist Reform Party of Nigel Farage is surging in the polls, and has a real chance of forming the next British government. Some of these radical parties of the right and left (like AfD and the socialists in France) are openly opposed to European military support for Ukraine and increases in military spending. Others fell in line behind NATO under the shock of the Russian invasion, but are strongly opposed to a European reassurance force for Ukraine. All believe (though with very different emphases) that their countries=E2=80=99 problems are overwhelming= ly internal ones, that will not be solved by higher military spending. The lessons for the Trump administration are the following: first, be very skeptical of European promises to significantly increase military spending. Even if present governments are sincere, it may well be simply beyond their power.Second, however, be *careful* of pushing them too hard. The political and economic stability of Europe is an old and vital US interest =E2=80=94 far more vital than the exact border= s of Ukraine. Finally, be even more careful about encouraging and guaranteeing a European =E2=80=9Creassurance force=E2=80=9D for Ukraine. Lacking both adequate reso= urces and adequate political support, the European planners of this force are in no position to guarantee it themselves. Anatol Lieven Anatol Lieven is Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He was formerly a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and in the War Studies Department of King=E2=80=99s Col= lege London. The views expressed by authors on Responsible Statecraft do not necessarily reflect those of the Quincy Institute or its associates. --000000000000b327f2063d7576fd Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
3D"Francois
Europe facing revolts, promising more guns with no money

France may be the latest domino to f= all as debt crisis sparks an austerity backlash

<= /div>
=
<= div class=3D"gmail-body gmail-js-expandable gmail-clearfix gmail-js-listicl= e-body gmail-css-listicle-body-2673933695">

If you wanted to create a classic recipe for political crisis, you could=20 well choose a mixture of a stagnant economy, a huge and growing public=20 debt, a perceived need radically to increase military spending, an immigration crisis, a=20 deeply unpopular president, a government without a majority in=20 parliament, and growing radical parties on the right and left.

In ot= her words, France today. And France=E2=80=99s crisis is only one part of th= e growing crisis of Western Europe as a whole, with= serious implications for the future of transatlantic relations.

The = latest shock in France has come with the announcement by Prime Minister Francois Bayrou that he will call a parliamentary=20 vote of confidence on September 8 over his plan for =E2=82=AC43.8 billion (= $51.1 billion) in budget cuts to address France=E2=80=99s budget deficit 5.8 per= cent=20 of GDP =E2=80=94 almost double the three percent that is supposed to be the= =20 limit for members of the Eurozone, and the highest in Europe after=20 Greece and Italy, leading to a debt to GDP ratio of 113 percent. French=20 GDP growth last year was only 1.2 percent and the economy is projected to grow by a mere = 0.6 percent this year.

Bayrou=E2=80=99s plan includes the freezing of welfare payments, reductions in=20 pensioners=E2=80=99 benefits, the abolition of two national holidays, deep = cuts=20 to state jobs, and unspecified tax increases for the wealthy. The only=20 area of state spending that will increase is the military =E2=80=94 and it = is=20 President Macron=E2=80=99s pledge (in line with the promise of Europe=E2=80= =99s NATO=20 members to President Trump) radically to increase military spending that has brought France=E2=80=99s fiscal crisis to a head.

This would inv= olve=20 the French military budget rising from around two percent now to 3.5=20 percent (plus another 1.5 percent in =E2=80=9Cdefense-related=E2=80=9D infr= astructure=20 spending). In July, Macron promised that the French military budget would reach =E2=82=AC64 billion in 2027, t= hree=20 years earlier than previously planned and twice the figure in 2017. He=20 also promise= d that this would not involve any increase in debt. Bayrou=E2=80=99= s thankless task is to try to reconcile these two promises.

Bayrou is= prime minister today because his predecessor, Michel Barnier, was ousted nine months ago in a vote of no confidence after he passed the 2025=20 budget by emergency decree having failed to gain a parliamentary=20 majority for budget cuts. This was the first time a government had been=20 ousted by a no confidence vote since 1962.

Bayrou stands a very=20 good chance of being the second premier in a year to fall this way. On=20 the face of it, his challenge looks insuperable. The loose coalition of=20 centrist parties that supports the government was beaten in the snap elections called by Macron in the summer of 2024, and despite an election deal=20 with the left in the second round to keep National Rally (which won a=20 plurality of votes) down to third place in the number of seats, have=20 only 210 seats in the National Assembly, compared to 142 for the radical rightists National Rally and its allies, and 180 for the left-wing New=20 Popular Front.

Both of these groupings have declared that they=20 will vote to oust the government if it persists with its budget plan.=20 The socialists are strongly opposed to austerity measures, and are=20 allied with trades unions that have announced a nationwide strike on September 10 to = block the budget.

As for Marine le Pen, leader of the National Rally, her friendliness=20 towards the government is hardly likely to have been increased by what=20 many see as a politically-motivated legal case launched against her by=20 the government, which (unless overturned on appeal) will lead to her=20 being banned from standing in the next presidential elections.

If=20 Bayrou=E2=80=99s government falls, there are likely to be fresh parliamenta= ry=20 elections; and the premier=E2=80=99s best chance may be that neither of the= =20 opposition blocs are afraid that the French public would blame them for a new political crisis, and that if the government is prepared to abandon some of its budget cuts (or covertly abandon the case against Le Pen),=20 one or other could abstain in the no-confidence vote, leading to a=20 government victory.

his is far from certain however. Radical socialist leader Jean-Luc=20 Melenchon has already said that Macron himself should resign if the=20 government loses new elections.

The implications of this crisis exten= d far beyond the borders of France. Bayrou has warned that if it does not reduce its debt, France will risk the fate of=20 Greece after the 2008 financial crisis, when it suffered years of=20 recession and very harsh and bitterly unpopular austerity measures=20 imposed by the European Union (at the instigation of Germany) as a=20 condition of its bailouts.

It seems inconceivable however that=20 Brussels would be able to impose such austerity measures on France, the=20 second largest economy in the EU. Presiding over deepening economic=20 decline would be the politically easier choice. Moreover Germany, the=20 largest economy, is facing severe budgetary problems of its own.=20 Disputes over the budget brought down the last German coalition=20 government.

The present coalition of Christian Democrats and Social D= emocrats have agreed (despite deep unhappiness among fiscal conservatives in the CDU) to=20 increase borrowing from =E2=82=AC33 billion in 2024 to =E2=82=AC81 billion = this year and =E2=82=AC126 billion in 2029 in order to pay for a doubling of Germany=E2= =80=99s=20 military spending and huge (and badly needed) investment in=20 infrastructure. Economists are warning however that this will not be=20 sustainable without cuts in social welfare. As elsewhere in Europe,=20 Germany=E2=80=99s problems in this regard are being worsened by its aging= =20 population, which both reduces the tax base and creates a huge lobby=20 against cuts to pensions and healthcare.

The German elections in Febr= uary saw a surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)= which opinion polls now show as close to overtaking the Christian Democrats as the most popular=20 party. If this rise is sustained up to the next German national=20 elections due in 2029, then one of two things will happen: either the=20 other parties will maintain their =E2=80=9Cfirewall=E2=80=9D against allowi= ng AfD into=20 government, which will require a permanent, unstable and deeply divided=20 coalition of perhaps all the other parties against them, or the firewall will collapse, leading to a German government far to the right of=20 anything seen since 1945.

In Britain too, the Labour government of Ke= ir Starmer is deeply unpopular. It= has suffered two humiliating revolts by its own MPs against its attempts to cut social welfare so as to=20 increase military spending and is facing the defection of many of its=20 voters to a new left-wing party. Debt to GDP stands at 103 percent and risin= g.

As in France and Germany, the right-wing populist Reform Party of Nigel=20 Farage is surging in the polls, and has a real chance of forming the=20 next British government.

Some of these radical parties of the=20 right and left (like AfD and the socialists in France) are openly=20 opposed to European military support for Ukraine and increases in=20 military spending. Others fell in line behind NATO under the shock of=20 the Russian invasion, but are strongly opposed to a European reassurance force for Ukraine. All believe (though with very different emphases)=20 that their countries=E2=80=99 problems are overwhelmingly internal ones, th= at=20 will not be solved by higher military spending.

The lessons for the <= a href=3D"https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/trump-administration/" clas= s=3D"gmail-rm-stats-tracked">Trump administration are the following: first, be very skeptical of European promises to=20 significantly increase military spending. Even if present governments=20 are sincere, it may well be simply beyond their power.Second, however,=20 be careful of pushing them too hard. The political and economic stability of=20 Europe is an old and vital US interest =E2=80=94 far more vital than the ex= act=20 borders of Ukraine.

Finally, be even more careful about=20 encouraging and guaranteeing a European =E2=80=9Creassurance force=E2=80=9D= for Ukraine. Lacking both adequate resources and adequate political support, the=20 European planners of this force are in no position to guarantee it=20 themselves.

=
=
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charset="UTF-8" https://zenit.org/2025/08/26/joint-statement-by-the-greek-orthodox-patriarchate-of-jerusalem-and-the-latin-patriarchate-of-jerusalem-in-response-to-israels-full-invasion-of-gaza/?eti=26789 --000000000000d7660a063d757ff1 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable --000000000000d7660a063d757ff1-- From cwfresidence@gmail.com Thu Aug 28 16:48:56 2025 Return-Path: X-Original-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Delivered-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Received: from mlm0.listserve.net (mlm0.listserve.net [161.35.233.68]) by mlm2.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id E0A00B0851 for ; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:48:55 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 mlm2.listserve.net E0A00B0851 Authentication-Results: mlm2.listserve.net; dkim=pass (2048-bit key) header.d=gmail.com header.i=@gmail.com header.b="KukSVxDU" Received: by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) id CFAF7BD02E; Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:48:55 -0700 (PDT) Delivered-To: salon@listserve.com Received: from mail-ej1-f45.google.com (mail-ej1-f45.google.com [209.85.218.45]) by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id C65B9BD029 for ; 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Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:48:53 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 19:48:38 -0400 X-Gm-Features: Ac12FXw55yKI7Cx37RbAITdgYw3547LgS31wBeVpvlGig60-I3O9xDK7_DJ_Dj8 Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="00000000000042c493063d758cb6" Subject: [Salon] Fwd: Al Mayadeen: "Former Biden security advisor backs pausing arms sales to 'Israel'." (8/28/25.) X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:48:56 -0000 --00000000000042c493063d758cb6 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/former-biden-security-advisor= -backs-pausing-arms-sales-to--i * 8/28/25 *Former Biden security advisor backs pausing arms sales to 'Israel'* *Former US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Wednesday he would support withholding US arms sales to "Israel" , marking a remarkable shift after he spent a year-and-a-half fiercely lobbying Democrats against any such efforts.* *"I have in fact told a number of members who were thinking about the votes on these resolutions that the situation as it stands today, following the breakdown of the cease-fire in March, means that a vote to withhold weapons to Israel is a totally credible position. That is a position I would support," Sullivan said in the Bulwark podcast.* *Sullivan was referring to a recent resolution from Sen. Bernie Sanders, which, for the first time, saw over half of the Senate Democratic caucus endorsing such a position, a stance that Sullivan and the White House had forcefully lobbied Democrats against during the final months of the Biden administration when Sanders made his first such effort.* *He continued by reframing the issue around the future of the US-"Israel" relationship , questioning whether the United States would be dealing with the same prime minister and right-wing government for years to come or if there was potential for political change within "Israel".* *Sullivan added that this political direction would fundamentally shape the nature of the relationship and the democratic character of "Israel" in the coming years, stating that it would have a huge impact and warning that without change, the entity would become unrecognizable, a sentiment many Israelis would share.* Congress votes down resolution to halt arm shipments *On July 30, the US Senate voted down a resolution that aimed to halt US arms sales to "Israel" , an action that exposed the deepening divisions among Democrats and highlighted the mounting frustration over "Israel's" conduct in Gaza.* *Led by progressive Senator Bernie Sanders, the resolution was defeated 27=E2=80=9370, marking a renewed attempt to block weapons transfers to "Isr= ael" in light of the worsening Gaza humanitarian crisis and the ongoing military aggression.* *"This resolution is absolutely necessary because the United States will have no credibility in the international community if we don=E2=80=99t stan= d up against this," Sanders, an independent, stated during floor debate.* *The vote reflects a growing rift within the Democratic Party and, while the effort failed, it drew support from 12 senators who had not previously voted to limit US arms sales to "Israel", indicating a shifting political sentiment.* --00000000000042c493063d758cb6 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

8/28/25

=

Former Biden secur= ity advisor backs pausing arms sales to 'Israel'

Former US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Wednesday he wou= ld support=C2=A0withholding US arms sales to "Israel", marking a remarkable shift after he spent a year-and-a-half fiercely lob= bying Democrats against any such efforts.

"I have in fac= t told a number of members who were thinking about the votes on these resol= utions that the situation as it stands today, following the breakdown of th= e cease-fire in March, means that a=C2=A0vote to withhold weapons = to Israel=C2=A0is a totally credible position. That is a p= osition I would support," Sullivan said in the Bulwark podcast.

Sullivan was referring to a recent resolution from Sen. Bernie Sand= ers, which, for the first time, saw over half of the Senate Democratic cauc= us endorsing such a position, a stance that Sullivan and the White House ha= d forcefully lobbied Democrats against during the final months of the Biden= administration when Sanders made his first such effort.

He c= ontinued by reframing the issue around the=C2=A0future of the US-&= quot;Israel" relationship, questioning whether the United States w= ould be dealing with the same prime minister and right-wing government for = years to come or if there was potential for political change within "I= srael".

Sullivan added that this political direction wou= ld fundamentally=C2=A0shape the nature of the relationship=C2=A0and the democratic character of "Israel" in the co= ming years, stating that it would have a huge impact and warning that witho= ut change, the entity would become unrecognizable, a sentiment many Israeli= s would share.

Congress votes down resolution = to halt arm shipments

On July 30, the US Senate voted dow= n a resolution that aimed to=C2=A0halt US arms sale= s to "Israel", an action that exposed the deepening divisions= among Democrats and highlighted the mounting frustration over "Israel= 's" conduct in Gaza.

Led by progressive Senator Bern= ie Sanders, the resolution was defeated 27=E2=80=9370, marking a renewed at= tempt to block weapons transfers to "Israel" in light of the wors= ening Gaza humanitarian crisis and the ongoing military aggression.

=

"This resolution is absolutely necessary because the United Sta= tes will have no credibility in the international community if we don=E2=80= =99t stand up against this," Sanders, an independent, stated during fl= oor debate.

The vote reflects a growing rift within the Democ= ratic Party and, while the effort failed, it drew support from 12 senators = who had not previously voted to limit US arms sales to "Israel", = indicating a shifting political sentiment.

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https://therealistreview= .substack.com/p/the-decline-of-american-statesmanship
<= div dir=3D"ltr">
<= font color=3D"#000000">

The Decline of American Diplomacy

From Galbraith and Moynihan to...whatever = this is.

James W. Carden=C2= =A0 8/28/25

A few years ago = at a panel discussion at Washington DC=E2=80=99s venerable Tabard Inn, I sp= otted a face I hadn=E2=80=99t expected to see. But Thomas R. Pickering, eve= n at 90 years of age, stood out. A legend in the annals of American diploma= cy, Pickering had served as US Ambassador to the UN, Russia, Israel, and In= dia, among a number of other countries. He retired as the third-ranking mem= ber of the State Department at the end of the Clinton administration. So fo= rmidable a diplomat was Pickering that, according to longtime=C2=A0New York Times=C2=A0diplomatic correspondent Leslie Gelb, Pi= ckering was seen as "arguably the best-ever senior U.S. representative= " to the UN. And=C2=A0that=C2=A0list included t= he likes of Adlai Stevenson, George Ball, and George H.W. Bush. Gelb's = report was occasioned by Pickering=E2=80=99s sudden transfer from Turtle Ba= y to New Delhi. Why was he being moved? Well, as Gelb told it, "It is = widely believed by Washington cognoscenti that Ambassador Pickering is bein= g posted to India for the worst of reasons: Secretary of State James Baker = feels that the career diplomat is casting too big a shadow on the Baker par= ade."

Nevertheless, Pickering=E2=80=99= s appointment to India was in keeping with a tradition that US presidents h= ad of sending among the most capable men available to New Delhi. During the= Cold War, it was a particularly sensitive post given India=E2=80=99s role = as a leader of the non-aligned bloc-in other words, those countries that re= fused either Washington or Moscow=E2=80=99s tutelage. In 1961, John F. Kenn= edy sent his friend, the famed Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith to = New Delhi. In addition to running point on the war that broke out between I= ndia and China in 1962, Galbraith offered sagacious advice to Kennedy befor= e, during, and after the Bay of Pigs and October Crisis. He was also among = the few to see the problems ahead in Vietnam.

Foll= owing Galbraith some years later in New Delhi was another habitu=C3=A9 of H= arvard Yard, Daniel Patrick Moynihan. Moynihan would also serve as UN Ambas= sador and then later, for a quarter century, as the senior Democratic Senat= or from New York. Moynihan, a Democrat who had in the 1950s worked for New = York Governor Averell Harriman, was sent by President Richard Nixon to help= reset relations with India in the aftermath of Nixon's "tilt"= ; toward Pakistan. While in India, Moynihan proposed, and then carried out,= a creative debt write-off program that helped to improve relations with th= e world's most populous democracy.

Recent US a= dministrations (Bush, Obama, Trump) have often decided to send career forei= gn service officers to New Delhi=E2=80=94which is all to the good, after al= l, Pickering was a career foreign service officer. Such men and women often= bring a deft touch in confronting nettlesome problems.

President Joe Biden=E2=80=99s (or the = person who was=C2=A0actual= ly=C2=A0making the decisio= ns for Biden) choice for Ambassador to India was, for reasons that remain o= bscure, the nepo-mayor of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti. The downward trend in= quality seems set to continue. Last week, President Trump announced that a= former errand boy for Sen. Rand Paul=E2=80=99s office (an office that seem= s to attract self-important types who think that=C2=A0<= a href=3D"https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna53442191" rel=3D"" style=3D"text-d= ecoration:none;max-width:100%" target=3D"_blank">plagiarizing Wikipedia= =C2=A0is a substitute for speec= hwriting) who somehow parlayed that role into a publishing partnership with= the Trump sons (the partnership produced the imaginatively titled=C2= =A0Letters to Trump=E2=80=94available for a cool $100 at trumpstore.com) will be his nomin= ee to head the diplomatic mission in New Delhi. Sergio Gor, a 38 year old n= ative of Malta with zero diplomatic or foreign affairs experience (but, as = it happens, ample experience as an amateur wedding DJ) will take the reins = in New Delhi pending Senate confirmation (or, more likely, a recess appoint= ment). It is said that for the last 7 months Gor has been the Director of t= he White House Presidential Personnel Office, but there is little evidence = of his time there, as scores of political appointments remain unfilled.

From Galbraith, Moynihan and Pickering to Garc= etti and Gor. The long decline of American statecraft continues.=

James W. Carden is editor of T= RR.