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The Death of Trump
What would happen to MAGA? And America?
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1. Koba
Last week Sarah, Sonny, and I sat down for a book movie club discussion about The Death of Stalin. (You can watch it here.)
By total coincidence, the show dropped after a 36-hour period in Donald
Trump had not been seen and there was speculation that he was unwell.
Fortunately, our Dear Leader is alive and doing great. This afternoon he’s even going to give us a surprise announcement at 2 p.m. I can hardly contain my excitement, comrades.
Yet, as unhappy as it is to contemplate, at some point President Trump will be called home to his eternal reward. The Death of Stalin is a pretty good way to think through what that might look like.
And so, for the first time in a long time, let’s dream together . . .
We have a few baseline scenarios to work from.
(1) Trump leaves office peacefully in 2029, without having sought re-election, and eventually passes on.¹
(2) Trump dies sometime between now and January 2028, before he has declared his intentions on running for re-election.
(2a) Trump dies sometime after declaring his intentions on running for re-election but before the election, while still in office.
(3) Trump runs for re-election in 2028, is victorious, and is the sitting president when he passes on at some point after 2029.
(3a) Trump runs for re-election in 2028, loses, and then dies while out of office, but actively pursuing another return to power.
There are other permutations. But the important underlying difference among these scenarios is that either:
Trump is holding power, or he’s merely
Making a claim on power
If Trump is the sitting president, whether he’s in his second or third term, then the line of succession is clear. His vice president becomes president.
Of course, that’s not the end of the story. Georgy Malenkov was Stalin’s deputy and he assumed the premiership of the Soviet Union immediately following Stalin’s death.
But being handed the office of leadership is not the same has having control of a movement. Malenkov was a dullard and Nikita Khrushchev outmaneuvered him over the next 24 months, eventually ousting him from the Politburo.²
If, just for the sake of argument, JD Vance was Trump’s vice president when he passed, I would not assume Vance to be anything more than a temporary leader of the Trumpist movement. That dude has Malenkov written all over him.
What would happen after Trump’s vice president took power? There would be a lot of bowing and scraping as ambitious Trumpists pretended to get onboard. But behind the scenes they’d be maneuvering to dump Vance at the first available moment.
In an echo of Death of Stalin, the support of Trump’s children would be critical for conveying legitimacy. After Stalin died, Malenkov, Khrushchev, and Lavrentiy Beria all hustled to win the support of both his semi-normal³ daughter, Svetlana, and his wastrel son, Vasily.
You do not need me to draw you a picture, but I will anyway: Immediately following Trump’s death, Vance et al. will be desperate to win the public backing of the Trump children, especially Ivanka and Don Jr.⁴
The question, then, is who would end up with control of the MAGA movement? It’s possible that Vance might, just by default. But maybe not. Everyone and their brother would take a shot: Kristi Noem. Ron DeSantis. Greg Abbott. Maybe even Lyin’ Ted and Little Marco.
Maybe Stephen Miller.⁵
Point is: Either someone will consolidate power over MAGA, or no one will. And it’s possible that this cult of personality falls apart without Trump.
2. There Is Another
What if Trump isn’t president when it happens?
Bad news for JD Hillbilly, obviously. But good news for everyone else because they no longer have to take the movement away from someone. They just have to inherit it.
That’s a messier proposition in some ways. But ultimately, it gets to the post-Trump equilibrium more quickly, without the intermediary step of a Vance caretaker administration.
And in this case, the dynastic solution is more easily achievable.
If Trump dies in office, there will be pressure for Ivanka and Don Jr. to bless JD Vance as their father’s successor.
But what if it’s January 2028 and Trump has been openly toying with running for a third term when he passes? Now there’s room for someone other than Vance to fulfill his legacy.
It’s pretty obvious to me that person would be one of the Trump children.
As Damon Linker observes, Trump is a particular kind of autocrat: He sits at the head of an ideological movement, but is himself not particularly ideological. Instead he is focused on looting and self-aggrandizement. He has discovered what the presidency is worth: Not millions of dollars, but forking billions.
Why would the Trump family let go of this asset?
JD Vance’s long game is clearly an attempt to convince stronger candidates (like Tucker and Don Jr.) not to succeed Trump. He will tell them that the job of president is too much work. That he can deliver everything these guys want for them, while they lived a life of leisure.
But that only works if what the Trump children want is ideological and policy-based.
What if the Trump children just want to keep making money? How would President Vance do that for them?
The obvious answer is that he couldn’t. Once the Trump family no longer controls the Republican party—which gives it an even-money chance to control the U.S. government every four years—the money machine turns off.
Does that sound like something a Trump would do?
In The Death of Stalin, Svetlana is a dilettante and Vasily is a kept drunk hidden from public view. In our timeline, Ivanka and her husband control a huge fund, Lara has a TV career, Don Jr. is a MAGA folk hero, and the family is working with a $5 billion war chest.
Why wouldn’t they continue in the family business? And if they tried, who would—who could—stop them?
That’s the first thing I’d like you to talk about in the comments today.
The second is the possibility that no one is able to consolidate power in MAGA. What happens then? Does the movement fall apart? Morph into something else? You tell me.
3. Next Up
Sonny, Sarah, and I are thinking about doing our movie club on Idiocracy this week. Are you a yes or no?
What other movies should we do?
For the sake of our discussion, I’m going to assume that Scenario #1 is the least likely, even though I’m sure sensible people assume it’s the most likely.
Malenkov was such a dimwit that after losing his power struggle with Khrushchev, he attempted a coup. It didn’t work. He was exiled to Kazakhstan and the former premier of the Soviet Union was demoted to—seriously—manager of a hydroelectric plant.
Svetlana was not “normal” by any objective standard. But I’m not sure what chance a person has when her mother commits suicide and her father is Stalin.
I suspect that the endorsement of Ivanka and Don Jr. will count for much more than the support of Melania.
Miller is the Beria analogue in this scenario: The guy everyone hates and fears and who has absolutely no business leading a populist movement because he’s a toad.
But people forget that Beria nearly made it over the line.