[Salon] Israel Gears Up to Occupy Gaza but May Find That Gaza Has Occupied It

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-09-05/ty-article/.premium/barring-a-last-minute-u-turn-what-could-israels-military-rule-in-gaza-look-like/00000199-1a08-d7a2-a9bf-1a19cd780000

Israel Gears Up to Occupy Gaza but May Find That Gaza Has Occupied It -

Zvi Bar'elSep 5, 2025
The bitter dispute between the army chief and the prime minister over the planned assault on Gaza City, and later the whole enclave, focuses on the costs and benefits to Israel. Will a complete occupation get the hostages freed? Will it end Hamas' rule in Gaza? What will be the price in soldiers' lives?

But amid the intensive preparations, the call-up of reservists and the operations already underway, these questions are moot. The establishment of a military government in Gaza is on its way to implementation. Without a last-minute change like a U-turn by Washington, in a few more weeks, Israeli soldiers will be the ruling power, with all the economic, military, political and legal implications.

As for the economic implications, two former Bank of Israel governors – Karnit Flug and Jacob Frenkel – weighed in this week. In an article for the Israel Democracy Institute, they estimated the direct costs at 30 billion shekels ($8.9 billion) a year. That includes 10 billion shekels for providing health services, water, electricity, waste disposal, food and fuel, and 20 billion for the occupying army.

Girls and women lining up for food at the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza on Wednesday.Credit: Eyad Baba/AFP

These numbers don't include one-time costs, or the cost to the economy of calling up tens of thousands of reservists. Then there are the economic sanctions that might be imposed on Israel and the hit to foreign trade.

Others estimate significantly lower costs, as Kobi Michael and Yossi Kuperwasser wrote without giving details in an article a month ago for the Institute for National Security Studies. But these estimates, whether high or low, lack a key element. The authors can't predict the extent of responsibility for civilian affairs that Israel and the IDF will assume.

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For example, will Israel fix the water pumps and the pipes that reach individual homes, or will it simply provide water by truck? How will it supply fuel? Who will rebuild the power grid, and for which areas? Will the network only reach dense population centers? In the first stage, will Israel only provide generators?

IDF officials told Haaretz that no comprehensive plan has been approved, even for food distribution. Despite the resounding and deadly fiasco of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a proper rethink hasn't been done, other sources say.

Ruins in central Gaza on Wednesday. The assumption is that 500,000 people will remain in areas that the IDF is supposed to clear of Hamas.Credit: Jehad Alshrafi/AP

"The difficulties in crafting a plan include the fact that nobody knows how many people will leave northern Gaza," one source said. "And what will be the policy toward the hundreds of thousands who remain in their homes and don't agree to be evacuated?"

The assumption right now is that at least 500,000 people will remain in areas that the IDF is supposed to clear of Hamas. In other words, it will be a deadly open-fire zone in which the number of civilian deaths is expected to be much higher than the current average of about 80 a day.

A former senior officer at the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories explained that, beyond the problem of staffing an occupation, one must consider daily life to understand the risk to the soldiers.

Israel won't be able to set the rules for the conquest of Gaza. For decades the international community sufficed with condemnation of the occupation of the West Bank and never imposed significant sanctions. This time, the trampling of international law could have serious repercussions, especially if Israel annexes part of the West Bank.

A long list of formal and less formal sanctions have already been imposed on Israel, including a halt to investments by international institutions, a boycott of Israeli researchers and a partial arms embargo. This includes the German government's historic decision to halt the export to Israel of arms that could be used in Gaza, a move that's already affecting the IDF.

Palestinians fleeing northern Gaza this week.Credit: Jehad Alshrafi/AP

Also, note the warning lights from the Arab countries that have signed peace treaties with Israel such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Jordan. The UAE, which signed its peace deal during Donald Trump's first term as U.S. president, justified its move by saying it prevented Israel from annexing the West Bank. The UAE is also the only Arab country that announced it would take part in a multinational force in Gaza, as long as the force operated under a Palestinian Authority that implemented deep structural reforms.

Lana Nusseibeh, an envoy for the UAE's foreign minister and the country's UN representative for many years, warned this week that the annexation of the West Bank would undermine the Abraham Accords and damage the chances for peace. This may not be a direct threat to sever relations with Israel, but it shows the general direction. Israel's relations with Cairo are at an all-time low; Egypt has reinforced its forces in the Sinai Peninsula.

Cairo may have recently signed a long-term agreement to receive Israeli natural gas, but remember that a similar deal signed by President Hosni Mubarak fed the protests that led to the Arab Spring, which deposed Mubarak in 2011.

Today, too, it's possible to say that the peace agreement with Egypt will hold, as Cairo wields an iron fist against freedom of _expression_ in the media and on social media. But the situation could take a turn for the worse if the retaking of Gaza leads to a breach of the Egyptian border, with tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands, flocking to Egypt.

To the Israeli government, the downfall of Hamas is paramount, even at a very high economic and diplomatic price. This is a critical objective per se, but its feasibility is in doubt. Occupations by Israel and other countries show that a direct occupation doesn't guarantee the elimination of terror groups.

The two intifadas, the permanent war on terror before and after them, and the blossoming of Hezbollah during the 18-year occupation of Lebanon are all evidence of the absurdity of believing that direct control provides a shield against terror. The same applies to the U.S. occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan, where the Taliban is now in control once again.

The difference with Gaza is that Iraq and Afghanistan had recognized governments responsible for civilian affairs. And these governments benefited from hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. funding that helped them develop their economies and militaries.

Now the question is how many years will Israel be able to hold Gaza before it realizes that Gaza is annexing Israel.