Israel's attack on Qatar eviscerates promise of US security umbrella for Gulf
Gulf states will reassess formula that splashy business deals and US bases can protect them from Israel
US President
Donald Trump talks with Qatar’s emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, before
being seen off to Air Force One at al-Udeid air base in Doha, on 15 May
2025 (Brian Snyder/Reuters)
Published date: 9 September 2025
Israel’s attack on
Qatar risks unwinding the decades-old foundation of
US power in the energy-rich Gulf: its role as a reliable security guarantor.
As wars raged in poorer neighbouring countries like Lebanon, Syria
and Iraq, rich Gulf states could focus on building glitzy skyscrapers
and hosting sporting events thanks to a constellation of US military
bases and a steady stream of business deals greasing the wheels of
diplomacy.
The Gulf had to occasionally deal with missile and drone strikes in the region from rebels in Yemen, but the US would never lean on subterfuge to aid attacks, especially from another state.
In fact, the US has tried to align Israel and the Arab Gulf against what it calls Iranian expansionism.
Not anymore.
Middle East
Eye reported earlier that the Trump administration gave its approval to
the Israeli attack on Doha targeting Hamas political officials who were
gathered to discuss the latest US ceasefire proposal for Gaza.
Israel killed at least six people - including a member of Qatar's
security forces - but missed its main targets, Hamas’s senior political
officials. The attack failed because Israel bombed a building close to
where senior Hamas officials were meeting, but not the exact location.
The true meeting point was disguised for security measures, a source
told MEE.
'This could potentially have profound implications for how regional states view US security guarantees'
- Ted Singer, former US official
Israeli media has reported that fighter jets were used in the attack.
Jordan said that Israel did not use its airspace. Israel used Syrian
and Iraqi airspace when it attacked Iran earlier this summer.
While Iran has long been at odds with the US, Qatar is a major non-Nato US ally.
An American military base sits roughly 30 kilometres from the house
bombed by Israel, which shares the same neighbourhood as the US
ambassador’s residence.
Some US officials told MEE that the US operations centre in Doha, with eyes on radar, went silent during the attack.
The US is now struggling to square its acquiescence to Israel’s
unprecedented escalation and its commitment to Qatari sovereignty.
US President Donald Trump is in open contradiction with Qatar's emir,
Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, over when the US informed Doha about the
Israeli attack.
Qatar has been one of the main mediators for ceasefire talks in Gaza.
Doha agreed to host Hamas's political leadership after it left Syria,
per a 2011 request from former US President Barack Obama.
By not confronting Israel’s attack in a country where it has
overwhelming air defence systems, the Trump administration has signalled
it will not stand in the way of an Israel bent on dominating the Middle
East from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf, experts say.
“This could potentially have profound implications for how regional
states view US security guarantees,” Ted Singer, former head of Middle
East operations for the US Central Intelligence Agency, told MEE.
Qatar, like other Gulf states, relies on a mix of military muscle and
its deep pockets to stay on the US’s good side for security.
'Changing the formula'
US soldiers operate air defence systems in Qatar. The Gulf state is
home to al-Udeid, the biggest US military installation in the Middle
East. Qatar has also pledged to invest hundreds of billions of dollars
in the US economy, including about $100bn in Boeing jets in May.
“If there were any fears about Israel’s destabilising ambitions, they
have just been tripled. No one is spared,” Merissa Khurma, a
nonresident fellow at the Baker Institute, told MEE.
'If there were any fears about Israel’s destabilising ambitions they have just been tripled. No one is spared'
- Merissa Khurma, Baker Institute
“Qatar and other countries in the Levant and Gulf do a lot to advance
US interests and, in return, expect security guarantees. This attack is
going to shake their confidence in the entire formula,” she added. “Is
it worth investing these billions of dollars in the US?”
The Gulf states were already moving away from Israel before the
attack on Qatar, unnerved by its growing belligerence, Arab diplomats
told MEE.
In the aftermath of the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attacks, Israel
seized a swath of southern Lebanon and Syria. It has continued to push
for the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, rattling
neighbours Egypt and Jordan.
Saudi Arabia shut down the Trump administration’s attempts to push it into a normalisation deal with Israel.
US efforts to foster closer military cooperation between Israel and
the Arab Gulf have also failed. Riyadh refused to help resupply Israel
with missile interceptors during its conflict with Iran and lobbied the
US against Israel dictating where Syria deployed its military.
Even the UAE - the Arab state closest to Israel - has signalled
frustration, warning about a "red line" over Israeli government plans to
annex the occupied West Bank.
In a paper
that circulated widely among diplomats in the region and the US,
Emirati analyst Mohammed Baharoon warned Israel was becoming "[a]
Goliath” bent on "regional hegemony".
Patrick Theros, a former US ambassador to Qatar, told MEE that
Tuesday’s strike backfired on Netanyahu and is likely to push the Gulf
states to Iran and China.
“China is going to be all over this,” Theros said. “And Saudi Arabia’s outreach to Iran will accelerate.”
Prime Minister of Qatar Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani on Tuesday
said that the Israeli strikes on Doha can only be interpreted as “state
terrorism”. He also disputed the initial US version of events that Qatar
had been notified, which, late on Tuesday, Donald Trump confirmed on Truth Social, saying that it was "unfortunately" too late to stop the attack.
Current and former US and Arab officials say that now that Israel has
shown its willingness to target the rich Gulf, all eyes will likely go
to Turkey.
Hamas political officials are known to travel between Qatar and
Turkey. The Nato member state could invoke Article 5, a collective
defence principle, if it is attacked.
Egypt also had a Hamas office before 7 October 2023 and has hosted Hamas officials amid ceasefire talks.