[Salon] The Crises of the EU

The Crises of the EU

Discontent with von der Leyen is increasing sharply before today's State of the Union speech by the EU Commission President - because of her customs deal with the USA, her Israel policy, the Mercosur agreement. The latter exacerbates the crisis in France.

PARIS/BERLIN/BRUSSELS (own report) – Before this year's State of the Union speech of the EU Commission President today, Wednesday, the discontent about the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen in the EU is swelling. In particular, the resistance to the tariff deal that von der Leyen has concluded with US President Donald Trump is growing; the unilateral tariffs he envisages are "illegal" and undermine the credibility and autonomy of the EU, according to the social democratic parliamentary group. Growing protests are also triggered by the almost unconditional support that von der Leyen sends Israel's war in the Gaza Strip. There is also a strong discontent that the Commission President has now proposed the EU free trade agreement with Mercosur for adoption. This could overstune France, which rejects the agreement in the interests of its farmers. This in turn threatens to further exacerbate the crisis, in which France - the second strongest EU state - is stuck after the overthrow of Prime Minister François Bayrou on Monday. In view of the increasing debt of France and the Federal Republic of Germany, initial warnings of a new EU financial crisis are being raised.

The crises of the EU

Discontent with von der Leyen is increasing sharply before today's State of the Union speech by the EU Commission President - because of her customs deal with the USA, her Israel policy, the Mercosur agreement. The latter exacerbates the crisis in France.

The consequences of rearmament

After the overthrow of the French government under Prime Minister François Bayrou, who failed on Monday with a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly, the debate about a possible new euro crisis is swelling. The background is France's increasing debt, which has now reached 114 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) with 3.3 trillion euros and continues to rise - not least because Paris is drastically increasing the military budget. While he was still at just over 32 billion euros when President Emmanuel Macron took office in 2017, he is expected to reach 64 billion euros in 2027, doubling within just ten years.[ 1] The increase in French government debt has helped the major rating agencies to lower the country's creditworthiness in recent years. This in turn has driven interest rates up; France now pays higher interest rates than Greece and has to raise around 67 billion euros for debt service this year.[ 2] This could already swell to 100 billion euros by 2029, it is said. According to calculations by Commerzbank economists, a French government debt level of around 150 percent of GDP is conceivable for the early 2030s.[ 3]

Ways into the debt crisis

Experts widely agree that an acute fall of France into a financial crisis is extremely unlikely. 4] The fact that Economic and Finance Minister Éric Lombard recently stated that if Bayrou's plans to cut the budget did not fail, an intervention by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could not be ruled out is considered by some as a failed attempt to stir up panic in order to mobilize support for Bayrou at the last minute. Of course, many believe that the political crisis and above all the strengthening of the extreme right-wing Rassemblement National (RN), which is expected to win in the next presidential election, could severely affect the economy and in fact lead to a financial crisis. An expert from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim speculates that the European Central Bank (ECB) could let a possible RN government "sail into the debt crisis". 5] In addition, for the first time, Germany is also in debt to finance its upgrading; its debt ratio will probably rise from the current 62 percent to up to 100 percent of GDP. If the rating agencies lower the creditworthiness of the Federal Republic of Germany, the possibility of a debt crisis is certainly there, according to the ZEW.[ 6]

Break with the WTO

The political crisis in France, the second strongest EU member after Germany, intensifies the current political crisis in the EU before this year's State of the Union speech by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday. The background is, on the one hand, the customs deal that von der Leyen has concluded with US President Donald Trump. The deal takes into account significant interests of the German automotive industry (german-foreign-policy.com reported [7]), but is otherwise classified as a snaging defeat of the EU [8]. In addition to the simple fact that in transatlantic trade, US exporters will not have to pay customs duties in the future, but EU exporters will have to pay 15 percent, the fact that tariff benefits for a single country break the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO) for a different from common free trade agreements weighs heavily. The SPD MEP René Repasi classifies the implicit rejection of the WTO as an "attack on the heart of European integration". The leader of the Social Democratic Group in the European Parliament, Iratxe García, warns that "the acceptance of illegal unilateral tariffs" and the adaptation of EU standards "to external pressure" undermined "both our credibility and our autonomy massively". 9] The approval of their group to the customs deal is therefore uncertain.

Against France's interests

It is said that in this case the deal could possibly be brought through the European Parliament with the consent of extreme right-wing groups – especially the Group of European Conservatives and Reformers (ECR). However, at the same time, further discontent is brewing. Von der Leyen has on the 3. In September, the EU free trade agreement with Mercosur was proposed to the member states and the European Parliament for adoption - this mainly under German pressure. 10] So far, the agreement has been rejected by France because it is diametrically contrary to the interests of French farmers. Paris could now be overrun. "Concluding such a treaty against the will of France would have been unthinkable once," observers say. With "Macron as president on call and a government" that is trapped in "internal quarrels", "it seems to be feasible." "The consequences for the political climate in France" are "unforeseeable". 11] The RN group leader in the French parliament, Marine Le Pen, has already announced that the RN deputies in the European Parliament will initiate a new vote of no confidence against von der Leyen in order to protest against the Mercosur agreement. Observers speculate that the RN could even use the widespread discontent about the agreement in France to force new national elections. 12]

Loyal to Israel In the European Parliament, the discontent over von der Leyen's leadership is swelling, not least because of her de facto support for Israeli warfare in the Gaza Strip. Von der Leyen had already sparked protests in the EU in the first days of the Gaza war when she promised Israel unconditional support despite the first war crimes – in agreement with Berlin, not voted in Brussels [13] – and was not even prepared to criticize the closure of the Gaza Strip from the supply of electricity and water [14]. The Commission President has long ignored the demand of a growing number of EU states to impose sanctions against Israel in order to prevent plans for the forced expulsion of the Palestinians [15]; when she apparently made her first concessions and agreed to freeze the funds from the Horizon Europe research program intended for Israel, this failed due to a rejection of the Federal Government [16], with which von der Leyen maintains close contacts. The pressure is increasing in various other EU countries; on Monday, for example, Spain not only imposed a complete arms bargo on Israel, but also banned ships and aircraft transporting weapons or other equipment for Israel's armed forces from staying in the country's ports and airports. 17] Today, it is now being closely observed whether - and if so, how - von der Leyen takes a position in her State of the Union speech on the Gaza war - all the more so after yesterday's terrorist attack by Israel on Doha, the capital of Qatar.

[1] Emmanuel Macron announces 3.5 billion euros of additional expenses for defense in 2026 and 3 billion euros in 2027. lemonde.fr 13.07.2025.

[2] Niklas Záboji: France's way into the debt swamp. faz.net 12.07.2025.

[3] Werner Mussler, Niklas Záboji: Is a new euro crisis threatening? faz.net 09.09.2025.

[4] Thomas Moller-Nielsen: Pourquoi la crise politique française n'est pas (encore) une crise économique. euractiv.fr 09.09.2025.

[5], [6] Werner Mussler, Niklas Záboji: Is a new euro crisis threatening? faz.net 09.09.2025.

[7] S. on this In the interest of the German automotive industry.

[8] S. The right of the stronger.

[9] Thomas Gutschker: Discontented from the summer break. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 09.09.2025.

[10] Commission proposes Mercosur and Mexico agreements for adoption. ec.europa.eu 03.09.2025.

[11] Jan Diesteldorf, Josef Kelnberger: The French malaise penetrates the heart of the EU. sueddeutsche.de 07.09.2025.

[12] Javier Villamor: Le Pen Seeking To Force Elections With Battle Against Mercosur. europeanconservative.com 04.09.2025.

[13] S. on the credibility of the West.

[14] S. No ceasefire.

[15] S. The Riviera of Genocide.

[16] Germany blocks EU sanctions against Israel. dw.com 30.08.2025.

[17] Carlos E. Cué: Sánchez announces a decree to legalize the total arms embargo on Israel and speaks for the first time of "genocidium" of the Palestinians.elpais.com 08.09.2025.