The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: A Regional Destabilizer, or a New Model for African Development?
By Charles A. Ray - September 17, 2025
On
September 9, 2025, the government of Ethiopia officially inaugurated
Africa’s largest dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This
massive project was under construction from 2011 to 2023 and was in the
process of being filled for the past two years. A gravity dam on the
Blue Nile River, about twenty-eight miles east of the border with Sudan,
its primary purpose is electricity production to relieve the country’s
energy shortage and to export power to neighboring countries. With a
capacity of 5.15 gigawatts, it is the largest hydroelectric dam in
Africa and among the twenty largest in the world.
While the GERD
will stand as a remarkable milestone in African development, it is also
the source of some problems. Egypt has opposed the project, raising
concerns that it will reduce the downstream water supply on the Blue
Nile. The Ethiopian government rebuffed Egypt’s claims, going so far as
to accuse Egypt of collaborating with anti-Ethiopia elements and
continuing a policy of preventing Ethiopian development along the Nile.
Sudan has also registered opposition to the project, calling for joint
management of the river.
A Project Long in the Making...
The
idea of a dam on the Blue Nile dates back to studies conducted by
American engineers before 1964. The United States Bureau of Reclamation
surveyed the Blue Nile between 1956 and 1964, during the reign of
Emperor Haile Selassie, and identified a site for the dam.
Due to
the 1975 coup d’état, which overthrew Selassie, Somalia’s invasion of
Ethiopia in 1977 to 78, and the fifteen-year Ethiopian Civil War between
the military junta and Ethiopian-Eritrean rebels, no progress was made
on the project until the early 2000s. The government surveyed the site
from 2009 to 2010 and submitted a design for the dam in November 2010.
The
project was made public on March 30, 2011, and a day later, the
government awarded a US$4.8 billion contract to an Italian company,
Salini Impregilo. In April 2011, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi
laid the dam’s foundation stone, and the project, known as the
Millennium Dam, was renamed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
... And so is the Opposition
The
idea of a dam on the Blue Nile dates back to studies conducted by
American engineers before 1964. The United States Bureau of Reclamation
surveyed the Blue Nile between 1956 and 1964, during the reign of
Emperor Haile Selassie, and identified a site for the dam.
Due to
the 1975 coup d’état, which overthrew Selassie, Somalia’s invasion of
Ethiopia in 1977 to 78, and the fifteen-year Ethiopian Civil War between
the military junta and Ethiopian-Eritrean rebels, no progress was made
on the project until the early 2000s. The government surveyed the site
from 2009 to 2010 and submitted a design for the dam in November 2010.
The
project was made public on March 30, 2011, and a day later, the
government awarded a US$4.8 billion contract to an Italian company,
Salini Impregilo. In April 2011, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi
laid the dam’s foundation stone, and the project, known as the
Millennium Dam, was renamed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Making History, Both Positive and Negative
Before
the launch of the GERD, Egypt’s Aswan Dam was the largest dam in
Africa. Ethiopia, which also has the Gilgel Gibe II and Tekeze Dams, can
now claim three of the ten largest dams on the continent.
Despite
a lack of international funding, other than China offering a $1.2
billion loan in 2013 to build transmission lines and an additional $1.8
billion in 2019 for renewable energy infrastructure, the $5 billion
project was financed through crowdsourcing through internal fundraising,
setting it apart from most other major infrastructure projects in
Africa and making it a source of national pride for Ethiopia.
All
the energy from the GERD will go into Ethiopia’s national grid to
support development throughout the country. Excess power will be
available to neighboring countries, including Egypt and Sudan. In
addition to these benefits, the reservoir formed by the dam is expected
to provide up to 7,000 tons of fish per year.
Though not
confirmed, the dam might mitigate the impact of some of Sudan’s
flooding. On the negative side, however, a lack of flooding could
severely impact Egypt’s farmers, who depend on annual flooding to
replenish the soil.
While Egypt’s efforts to stop the project
failed, its opposition continues. Egypt asserts its “right” to regulate
the waters of the Nile, based on colonial-era agreements which the other
nations on the Nile were not party to: primarily the 1929
Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Treaty. The treaties give
Egypt over 50 percent of the waters of the Nile and its tributaries and
grant Egypt veto power over any construction projects on the Nile or
its tributaries. The terms of the treaties can only be fully
implemented, though, if none of the nine other countries on the Nile
access or utilize any water from the Nile or its tributaries, and their
water rights—even of the water originating within their territory—are
dependent on Egypt and Sudan’s goodwill.
The controversy
surrounding the GERD will not be easily solved. But a starting point
would be for all of the countries along the Nile to sit down and hammer
out a replacement for the existing treaties that is more aligned with
international transboundary water law. The basic requirements of this
law are:
- All states are entitled to equitable and reasonable use,
- And have an obligation not to cause significant harm to others,
- And have a duty to cooperate.
The
existing Nile treaties disregard the rights of other countries on the
Nile and, by failing to give them their fair share of Nile water,
interfere with their economic development.
The question of the
fairness of the GERD is moot at this point, but moving forward, the
operation of this and the construction of other Nile hydro-projects
should be approached with a mood of cooperation and respect for the
sovereignty and rights of all parties.