A new survey
conducted by DEFP asks 51 experts their opinions on the likelihood of a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan, whether United States would intervene
militarily, and what further consequences there would be. DEFP Director
of Military Analysis Jennifer Kavanagh interprets the survey results in a
new explainer:
- "[T]here is substantial disagreement among experts as to how the
United States should and would respond to a Taiwan conflict. This
suggests the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan is
working."
- "The experts surveyed largely agreed that China is unlikely to
invade Taiwan, a departure from political and military leaders who have
inflated the possibility. They also tended to agree that China is
unlikely to strike U.S. military bases in East Asia ahead of a Taiwan
invasion, which would grant U.S. leaders flexibility in how they respond
to this scenario."
- "These experts are divided, however, on what that response should
look like. Some say the United States should use direct military force
in Taiwan while others argue it should only send military aid. Very few
think the U.S. should stay out completely."
- "Even as they acknowledge that a successful seizure of Taiwan would
not offer China significant military or economic benefits and recognize
the enormous risks and costs to the United States of entering a Taiwan
conflict, some experts continue to support a U.S. intervention. This
tension is perhaps best explained by a lingering attachment to the
pursuit of U.S. hegemony."
Read the full analysis of the survey here.
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