A Prize for Terrorism or a Penalty for Genocide?
Summary: the UK's recent recognition of Palestinian statehood is not a moral victory but a cynical, forced penalty for Israel's genocide, revealing Western weakness. Ultimately, this move is a key signpost in an irreversible process of global isolation and internal decay that heralds the inevitable end of the Israeli state.
The recent decision by four nations - the UK, Canada, Australia and Portugal formally to recognise Palestinian statehood was met with the predictable, venomous response from Tel Aviv. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu labelled it “an absurd prize for terrorism,” while the foreign ministry claimed it was “nothing but a reward for jihadist Hamas.” This framing is a deliberate and desperate attempt to control a narrative that is rapidly slipping from Israel’s grasp. For in truth, this recognition is not a prize for anyone; it is a penalty, a direct consequence of Israel’s own actions—a genocidal campaign in Gaza that has shocked the conscience of humanity. Yet, it is also a flawed and cynical manoeuvre, one that reveals more about the fears of a crumbling world order than a genuine commitment to justice. It is, however, an undeniable signpost on the road to a seismic shift: the end of the Israeli state as we know it is not a distant possibility, but a gathering inevitability.
To understand the significance of this moment, one must first look past the diplomatic fanfare. The UK’s recognition, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is not an act of moral courage but one of political expediency. According to the FT, “panic set in” within the Labour leadership. Fearing a forced and embarrassing parliamentary vote on the issue that would undermine his authority, Starmer hastily convened an emergency cabinet meeting. The result was a conditional recognition, a move designed not to empower Palestinians, but to manage the fallout of Israel’s genocide and corral the Palestinian cause back into the defunct cage of endless “peace talks.”
This is not a true affirmation of Palestinian rights. Rather, it is an attempt to curtail them. Western nations, while speaking of “independence,” simultaneously seek to dictate which parties can participate in Palestinian political life, place the entirety of blame on Hamas, and effectively terminate the sacred right of return for millions of refugees. The goal is transparent: to empower collaborators and find a way to absolve Israel of its crimes, allowing it to achieve its war aims under the genteel guise of diplomacy. Starmer, who supports Zionism “without qualification” and who has supported the famine in Gaza from the start, exemplifies this hypocrisy. Even as he “recognises” Palestine, he authorises British spy planes to fly overhead, aiding and abetting the very extermination he claims to want to end. The Palestinian people will now be punished for this “recognition,” with weapons supplied or financed by the same countries that just extended it.
Starmer’s attempt to "revive the hope of peace and a two-state solution" is doomed to fail for two fundamental reasons. First, the current Israeli government is a coalition of fanatics, too intent on Lebensraum in the West Bank and too ideologically committed to maximalist Zionism to ever accept a Palestinian state on any terms. "There will be no Palestinian state," Netanyahu announced on social media immediately after Starmer’s announcement. Even if Starmer could wave a magic wand and erase the genocide from the internet, and even if Palestinians were coerced into accepting a statelet consisting of little more than a single room in the American Colony Hotel in East Jerusalem, Netanyahu and his fascist ministers would dismiss it as an anti-Semitic outrage. There is no partner for peace in today’s Israel; there is only a machine of expansion and elimination.
An elderly Palestinian woman being used as a human shield by Israeli forces in Khan Yunis, southern Gaza Strip [photo credit: Shahar Dvir]
Second, and more critically, the walls are closing in on Israel. For two years, the world watched a slow-motion Holocaust unfold, during which two-faced Western governments wept crocodile tears while quietly doing all they could to expedite the slaughter. But a critical mass is now building. The momentum against the genocide is becoming unstoppable. Despite a huge, concerted effort by Western powers to slow it down—exemplified by the US’s sixth veto of a UN ceasefire resolution—the dam is breaking. The UN has declared a genocide. In the public sphere, boycotts are gaining unprecedented traction.
The spectacle of huge protests against the Israeli team at the La Vuelta cycling tour in Spain sent a clear message: any Western cultural or sporting event that includes the apartheid state is now a target. Ireland, Slovenia, the Netherlands, Iceland, Spain have all confirmed they will boycott Eurovision if Israel participates and Spain has cancelled a €700 million arms deal. Belgium has announced sanctions, including a ban on goods from illegal settlements. Norway’s colossal $2 trillion wealth fund has divested from Caterpillar on ethical grounds. The European Commission has proposed suspending the EU’s free trade agreement with Israel. Even the Royal College of Defence Studies in the UK has banned Israeli students. From the dockworkers of Genoa threatening to strike if aid flotillas are blocked, to the global BDS movement, civil society is leading where governments have feared to tread.
This recalls the sports boycotts that helped bring down apartheid South Africa. When ordinary South Africans saw their rugby and cricket teams isolated, it was a mortal blow to morale. But Israel is not South Africa. South African apartheid was not on a mission to annex half a continent, nor did it have the audacity to lobby Western governments to outlaw criticism of its policies globally. Israel, however, operates with a sense of impunity, carrying out assassinations and bombings across the region, unrepentant and ready to strike anywhere it perceives a threat to Zionism.
As Israel panics, its isolation deepens. Netanyahu himself has admitted it. The IDF, stretched to its limit, struggles to recruit enough soldiers and has resorted to ambushing its own yeshiva students at airport departure gates to force them to fight. This internal rot coincides with a dramatic regional realignment. The most telling signal came from Saudi Arabia, which just signed a significant security pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan. This highly publicised deal is a profound message. First, it signals that Riyadh has lost all trust in the US as a security guarantor. Second, it is a veiled warning to Israel: any “wild moves” in Saudi Arabia’s direction will be met with the knowledge that a nuclear power has its back. This is a complete reversal from just months ago, when talk was all of normalisation.
In the coming days, Israel’s criminality is expected to take centre stage at the UN General Assembly. Israel will likely ignore all accusations and expand its West Bank occupation, lashing out as it did at Qatar. A wider war with Iran is a terrifyingly likely next step as the regime seeks to externalise its crisis. But each reckless act only accelerates its demise.
The end of the Israeli project is coming. This is not ‘possibly coming,’ something illusory or abstract. It is like a ship far out at sea whose masthead can already be seen from the shore; like a child soon to be born moving restlessly in its mother’s womb.
The UK’s recognition of Palestine is not the cause of this shift, but a symptom of it—a reluctant admission by the establishment that the status quo is untenable. It is a feeble attempt to get ahead of a tidal wave of history. The combination of internal decay, global grassroots resistance, and shifting geopolitical alliances has created an irreversible momentum. The collapse of the Israeli state in its current form would be the most significant geopolitical event since the fall of the Soviet Union. And the world is finally, belatedly, beginning to prepare for the dawn.
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