Own Goals and Diplomatic Malpractice
By Ambassador Patrick Theros - September 21, 2025
Donald Trump may well have set a world record in own goals and diplomatic malpractice. In my 36 years in the U.S. Foreign Service, I never saw a president so eager to score points at home by kicking the ball into his own net abroad. He governs like an aging real estate developer from Queens, forever chasing the splashy headline. For Trump, foreign policy is a series of one-off real estate deals. He has never grasped the reality that every rash decision has ripples abroad he neither notices nor understands.
The Israeli attack on Qatar is only the latest and most spectacular example. Gulf leaders wonder: did Netanyahu act because he believed he had Washington’s tacit blessing? When the White House responded with limp words about the attack not being “in Israel’s or America’s interest,” the damage was done. The GCC concluded that America will not restrain Israel; the attack too the wind out of the U.S. security umbrella. The gradual consequence will be greater GCC engagement with Iran, new openness to China, and an end to normalization with Israel. What Rubio said in Jerusalem about standing by Israel, a Trump applause line at home, looked like betrayal in Doha, Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi.
The 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco facilities made the same point. Half of Saudi oil exports were briefly cut off. Trump congratulated himself for keeping America out of a new war; the Saudis still wonder if the U.S. will come to their defense when the chips are down. After Trump’s Soleimani strike, Iran retaliated with missiles on U.S. bases in Iraq, injuring American troops. Baghdad’s parliament voted to expel U.S. forces. Trump looked tough for an evening; America lost leverage in the Gulf.
Ripping up the Iran nuclear deal played to his donors and hardliners. The result was predictable: Iran accelerated enrichment, Europe distanced itself from Washington, and China bought Iranian oil at bargain prices. Tehran grew both more dangerous and less isolated.
India suffered the same Trumpian whiplash. He urged New Delhi to buy U.S. arms and join the Quad against China, then slapped 50% tariffs for buying Russian oil and revoked India’s trade preferences. Worse, he punished India while ignoring China, Russia’s largest buyer. India responded by hedging back toward Moscow and deepening trade ties with Beijing. Trump wanted to ‘lock in’ India; he shoved it toward America’s rivals.
Brazil shows the same genius. Steel tariffs on China – part of a larger ill-planned trade war – prompted Beijing to shift agricultural purchases to Brazil, making Brasília more dependent on Chinese markets. Trump claimed to protect American farmers, pushing China to reward Brazilian exporters instead, while bankrupting American soybean farmers.
Latin America is littered with similar examples. Trump anointed Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s rightful president, imagining sanctions and tough talk would topple Nicolás Maduro. Instead, Maduro consolidated power, fortified by Russian and Chinese support. Trump’s naval theatrics – blowing up small boats accused of running dope without showing evidence – added nothing to regime change but gave Maduro nationalist credibility. (Will he next take a page out of the Israeli handbook and shoot migrants lined up at the border because there may be a drug smuggler amongst them?) Meanwhile, counternarcotics threats to ‘decertify’ allies like Colombia alienate our closest partners.
Jerusalem offered the clearest illustration of policy as applause line. Moving the embassy thrilled Trump’s evangelical base. But it extinguished America’s role as mediator in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Washington, once indispensable, became just another partisan. The cheers in Des Moines drowned out the sound of U.S. diplomacy being carted off the stage.
Trump treated NATO like a delinquent tenant association: pay your dues or get evicted. Trump’s browbeating – and kowtowing to Vladimir Putin – did raise European defense spending. But it also forced Europe to ask whether its security can depend on a fickle American president. Europe answered with more defense autonomy, the urgent rebuilding of Europe’s defense industries that will compete with American suppliers, and less reliance on Washington. Trump bragged that NATO was “paying up.” In truth, Europe rearmed out of fear of betrayal.
Syria revealed the tragic consequences. Trump’s abrupt 2019 withdrawal cleared the way for a Turkish incursion, forcing America’s Kurdish partners to turn to Assad and Putin. What Trump sold as ending ‘endless wars’ created new openings for Moscow and reminded every ally that U.S. loyalty can vanish with a tweet.
The irony is that Trump’s moves often strengthen the very politicians he set out to weaken. Sanctions against Maduro gave him nationalist oxygen. Tariffs on India undid a carefully built mutual defense structure. NATO bullying empowered leaders in Paris and Berlin who wanted strategic autonomy. Only Netanyahu, whose survival depends on perpetual crisis, benefits from Trump’s indulgence.
Trump acts for the applause line, blind to the ripple. He measures success by Fox News coverage at 10 PM, not by what foreign ministries decide the next morning. He sees a real estate closing, not a chessboard. He wins the moment, loses the strategy, and calls it greatness.
The ultimate beneficiary is not Trump’s base, nor the opponents he meant to punish. It is China. Beijing does not need to out-maneuver Washington when Washington undercuts itself. China buys the oil Iran must sell, takes the soybeans Brazil is eager to ship, courts the India Trump alienates, and edges into the Gulf while America dithers. Trump throws the stones; China studies the ripples and builds the dam.
History will not remember the splash of each Trump decision. It will remember the erosion: of trust among allies, of America’s credibility, of the global system Washington once built. In foreign policy, as in real estate, location matters. Trump has managed to relocate American influence from the skybox to the bleachers, while China celebrates America’s own goal.