[Salon] Trump Has Been Bamboozled About Ukraine’s War Prospects



https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/trump-has-been-bamboozled-about-ukraines?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1225061&post_id=175316785&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=210kv&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Trump Has Been Bamboozled About Ukraine’s War Prospects

Larry C Johnson   10/4/25
Cartoon by Nemo

I am saving myself a thousand words by posting the latest cartoon from Nemo (not Nima). He has captured the absurdity, stupidity and horror of General David Petraeus’ fawning over a radical Sunni terrorist… One that we were supposedly trying to destroy. Instead of destroying this bona fide head chopper, the Trump administration and its lackeys are celebrating his rise to power.

What I want to focus on is Sy Hersh’s latest SubStack piece on the War in Ukraine: NO END IN SIGHT FOR UKRAINE. The really interesting part of Sy’s piece is not that Sy is drinking the kool aid about the war in Ukraine being a stalemate… Rather it is the fact that his sources in the Trump administration are spewing this nonsense. Knowing Sy for more than 45 years, I am confident that he is accurately reporting what the sources — unnamed — are telling him.

Sy, drawing on interviews with U.S. officials linked to the Trump administration and Russia experts, paints a grim picture of the Russia-Ukraine war, ongoing since February 2022, with no resolution in sight. The piece blends insights from intelligence sources, diplomatic perspectives, and historical analogies to argue that the conflict has settled into a brutal stalemate, with economic pressures and shifting U.S. policies complicating prospects for peace.

First, let’s clarify the meaning of stalemate… A stalemate is a situation in which neither side in a conflict can make significant progress, gain an advantage, or achieve a decisive victory over the other. This leads to a deadlock or standstill, where both parties are unable to alter the outcome meaningfully despite ongoing efforts. In military and geopolitical contexts, stalemates typically result in prolonged confrontations, entrenched positions, and unresolved disputes, as seen in examples like the Korean War or modern conflicts where front lines barely move and no side can prevail.

I’m not bothered by the fact that Sy is not paying attention to what is happening on the ground in Ukraine; but how can the Trump folks, who supposedly have access to the best intelligence, spew such nonsense. Russia is making steady progress all along the line of conflict in Ukraine.

Russian sources, including the Ministry of Defense (MoD) briefings, TASS, and state-aligned reports, portray the ongoing special military operation as a steady, attritional advance by Russian forces, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, with significant Ukrainian losses and infrastructure degradation. The MoD’s weekly summary for September 27–October 3, 2025, reported up to 10,660 Ukrainian personnel casualties, destruction of 96 artillery pieces, 29 field ammunition depots, and strikes on 1,452 military facilities, including energy infrastructure to disrupt logistics ahead of winter. Overall, Russia is using encirclement tactics, drone integration, and small-unit infiltrations to exploit Ukrainian manpower shortages, while dismissing Western aid as ineffective. High-volume missile and drone strikes (e.g., 381 drones and 35 missiles on October 2–3) targeted energy grids, causing blackouts in Donetsk cities like Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Kramatorsk.

Russian sources, as well as Ukrainian channels, describe Pokrovsk as the focal point of operations in southwestern Donetsk, with Russian forces actively enveloping the city from multiple axes to isolate Ukrainian defenses. The MoD reports daily assaults near Pokrovsk itself, north (Rodynske), northeast (Krasnyi Lyman, Novoekonomichne, Sukhetske), east (Myrnohrad, Myrolyubivka, Promin), southeast (Novopavlivka, Lysivka), and southwest (Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, Zvirove), using small infantry groups and FPV drones for infiltration amid foliage cover. TASS, citing Donetsk People’s Republic head Denis Pushilin, states Russian forces maintain control despite Ukrainian counterattacks in Pokrovsk and nearby Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), with Ukrainian intelligence admitting the front is “most critical” due to concentrated Russian efforts.

A successful push here will open paths to Dnepropetrovsk Oblast and northward to Kramatorsk-Slavyansk, per Russian assessments. MoD claims Ukrainian losses in the sector exceed 1,485 troops in late September alone, with infantry casualties up 30% in September compared to August, attributed to drone strikes and poor weather hindering Ukrainian reinforcements. Russian units like the 3rd Spetsnaz Brigade (GRU) and 80th Sparta Reconnaissance Battalion are highlighted for drone operations near Hryshyne and Myrnohrad.

The situation is equally dire in Kramatorsk. Although Russian sources indicate a temporary slowdown in ground offensives southwest of Siversk toward Kramatorsk due to poor weather, the Russians are accumulating forces for future assaults, while sustaining high artillery fire that is disrupting Ukrainian movements. The MoD reports no major clashes in the Kramatorsk direction on October 3–4 but ongoing strikes, including a ballistic missile hit on a thermal power plant causing a major fire and blackouts.

Elements of the 98th Airborne Division are reportedly redeployed from the Kramatorsk area (near Chasiv Yar) to Kherson, suggesting a strategic shift, though Russian narratives frame this as rotational to bolster other fronts. TASS links potential advances to successes in Pokrovsk, warning of northward momentum toward the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration. MoD claims include destruction of Ukrainian artillery positions in the sector, with overall Donetsk losses for Ukraine at hundreds daily. Russian milbloggers and MoD emphasize drone surveillance and rail strikes near Kramatorsk to interdict supplies, portraying the city as increasingly isolated (less than 20 km from positions in some areas).

Ukrainian sources, by contrast, report no such advances… While there are reports that Ukrainian units make small advances in some areas, they are unable to consolidate these gains and reinforce their positions… The Russians, who enjoy a decisive advantage in manpower and firepower, are content to press forward with Ukraine doing the overwhelming majority of the bleeding.

The most disturbing and delusional part of Sy’s article is this assessment from one of the Trump team:

The official continued: “It’s not about conquering Europe. He’s not Catherine the Great” (who overthrew her husband and became empress of Russia for more than three decades in the late eighteenth century). “He’s got to know he has limited resources.”

“At one time,” the official said, in the American-led negotiations to end the war with Ukraine, “There was an agreement that you”— Putin—“would get the land” that Russia had won in the war—at least three provinces—and “Ukraine would get peace. And now,” he added, referring to more recent talks, “we told Putin he can’t get any of it. The president said land is not on the table any more. Putin overstepped and he walked away. The war will go on until he is killed or there is a revolt” in Russia. “In other words,” the official said, “it’s an open door” full of imponderables.

The official’s view today “is to let Putin stew in his own choices. He will never get Ukraine, and his summer offense failed miserably.” The American policy now is to put as much economic pressure as possible to help bring down the Russian economy. Putin is now busily selling Russia’s “sour” crude oil—known as such due to its sulphur content—with India as one of his main buyers. Thirty percent of Russia’s current economy, the official told me, now comes from the sale of Russian gas and crude oil. Putin, he said, “has no choice but to continue fighting a war that is destroying his economy.

This is delusional bullshit. The Russian oil and gas sector contributes about 15-20% to the country’s GDP on average, according to comprehensive assessments that include extraction, refining, transportation, sales, and supporting activities. This share has fluctuated due to global prices, sanctions, and wartime disruptions; for instance, Rosstat data shows it at 15.2% in 2020, with earlier peaks around 21% in 2018. While oil and gas exports (including minerals) account for 45-50% of total exports and up to 30-50% of federal budget revenues, their direct GDP impact is lower because GDP encompasses the full economy, including domestic consumption and non-energy sectors.

Russia has one other great advantage over the United States with respect to its economy… Its debt-to-GDP ration is 19%. The US, by dramatic contrast, sits at 126% and growing. It is the United States, not Russia, that has an economy unable to produce the weapons and ammunition to sustain the level of combat we are witnessing in Ukraine. Russia is not struggling to produce air defense missiles, hypersonic missiles, tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and artillery shells. Oh yeah, almost forgot… Russia is light years ahead of the US in producing drones that are regularly employed in a variety of combat missions.

I wonder if the Trump team will ever wake up to reality? Russia, for its part, will continue to grind westward while dismantling the combat capability of the NATO-backed Ukrainian army. This ain’t no stalemate.




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