Trump’s Thailand-Cambodia peace prize play puts Asean in a precarious position
Malaysia, as summit host, finds itself caught between a US president hungry for a Nobel and a key trading partner in China
“Trump isn’t here seeking peace, he’s only after recognition … a Nobel Prize. It’s about serving his own ambitions, not helping us,” said Wichien, who asked to be identified by only one name during such anxious times.
“We’re fully capable of resolving our issues with Cambodia on our own.”
Trump’s White House sees things differently. It claims credit for ending July’s bloody five-day border conflict that left at least 48 people dead on both sides.
A Nobel obsession
While it was Malaysia that brokered a ceasefire that came into effect on July 28, Washington says it was Trump’s use of trade pressure – rewarding both countries with US import tariffs of 19 per cent, among the lowest in Southeast Asia – that brought the two warring parties to the negotiating table.
“At long last we have peace in the Middle East … nobody thought we could get there, and now we are there,” he proclaimed.
That distinction is not lost on Southeast Asia, where the focus of Trump’s peacemaking ambitions has now shifted.
Bargaining with Bangkok
The US president is set to arrive in Kuala Lumpur next Sunday for this month’s Asean summit, where trade, defence and geostrategic interests are expected to dominate discussions.
Though the Thailand-Cambodia signing ceremony is essentially a sideshow, it is one that Trump is determined to control.
A spokesman for the Thai prime minister told reporters on Tuesday that Washington had used the border row “to bargain with” Bangkok, all but confirming that trade relations with the Southeast Asian nation’s largest export partner were directly linked to the dispute’s resolution.
Thailand has accused Cambodia of failing to withdraw heavy weapons from the border and of laying new landmines, as well as encouraging Cambodian villagers to encroach on Thai territory.
Phnom Penh insists it is committed to the “peaceful settlement of disputes, the non-use of force and respect for international law”, urging “sincerity” in talks and fairness over territorial claims.
With just days to go before Trump’s visit, neither side is eager to back down. Yet both are wary of provoking the notoriously unpredictable American president.
The China question
For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Trump’s visit is a chance to reset trade and security ties with the world’s largest economy and military power.
“Anwar would likely be amenable to allowing Trump to preside over a symbolic peace deal,” said Harrison Cheng, a director at global risk consultancy Control Risks.
“However, he is likely to be wary of Trump’s other alleged condition, since this would jeopardise Malaysia-China relations and signal to the Chinese, however inadvertently, that Malaysia is prioritising ties with the US over those with China.”
Cheng suggested that the optimal outcome for Anwar would be Trump attending the summit while also permitting Chinese representatives at the ceremony.
Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan confirmed on Tuesday that a ceasefire agreement was likely to be signed during Trump’s visit.
“We hope to see the signing of a declaration, known as the Kuala Lumpur Accord, between these two neighbours to ensure peace and a lasting ceasefire,” he said.
Officially non-aligned, Asean seeks trade with both the US and China, while relying on American-supplied vessels to bolster its South China Sea defences.
Excluding Chinese officials from a symbolic peace deal would … send a worrying signal
China, itself the target of US tariffs, has urged its neighbours to reject Washington’s economic coercion and push to exclude Chinese supply chains from regional trade.
Barring China from the signing ceremony would send the wrong signals, said Shawn Balakrishnan, a Singapore-based partner with global consultancy Penta.
“Excluding Chinese officials from a symbolic peace deal would undermine Kuala Lumpur’s close diplomatic and economic ties with Beijing and send a worrying signal to other Asean members that external powers can dictate the host’s agenda,” he said.
“This would undoubtedly feed perceptions that Asean is being drawn into a great-power competition.”