Judges talk a lot about the “presumption of regularity.” Think of it as a kind of opening assumption that they make: When government officials and lawyers say things in court filings or hearings, they are true. But when it comes to the Trump administration, it’s the opposite. We must operate on a presumption of irregularity. That is because everyone from the president on down treats the Constitution and our laws as targets to be barraged, not rules to be followed. That was what drove me—with wonderful partners and your help—to go to court this week on behalf of federal employee unions AFGE and AFSCME. You are part of the team that won an injunction stopping Trump’s abuse of the government shutdown. He is trying to take advantage of the situation to fire thousands of government employees. But the law sets up very strict rules for what he can and cannot do in a shutdown, and Trump himself confirmed the presumption of irregularity by saying over and over again that he would target Democrats! As terrible as that is, the law does not enforce itself. That is where you come in, Contrarians. Your paid subscriptions support my democracy litigation—now over 200 cases—and matters such as securing this injunction protecting vast numbers of federal employees. They are grateful to you, and so am I. The presumption of Trump irregularity also shapes how I see the openly retaliatory prosecutions of James Comey, Letitia James, and now John Bolton. I got pretty hot on TV after the Bolton charges dropped because some good folks were giving excessive respect to the allegations. No—they must be treated with a presumption of irregularity, like the Comey and James cases. Of course they could turn out to be true. Because this indictment relates to classified information and we don’t have details, there’s a lot we don’t know yet about these charges. But what we do know should profoundly concern every American. We know that Trump has strong animus against Bolton, and he hasn’t hidden it. He has said so for years. Those statements give rise to selective and vindictive prosecution motions. Exhibit A will be Pete Hegseth’s messaging attack plans–information that would normally be classified—on an unauthorized non-governmental communications channel. He’s not being prosecuted. That’s only the beginning of the hypocrisy factor. Trump himself took, for no legitimate reason, boxes of classified documents when he left the presidency and actively obstructed the investigation of that. Compare and contrast his excuses with what he is pressing here, and you can’t help but raise an eyebrow. There’s also a pattern of revenge prosecutions (such as Comey and James) that have not involved classified information. Our assessment shows that there was no there there. The natural question now: Is there a there here? Typically, to avoid a stench when a president has a personal interest in a case, DOJ appoints a special counsel. We don’t have one here. That raises another point of suspicion, particularly given new Washington Post reporting that one of the prosecutors overseeing lawyers who signed the complaint went to the White House before the case dropped. Next you have history. From George Washington to Ronald Reagan to Joe Biden, White House officials have kept diaries. Those personal papers are not the same as classified documents with official markings, even if they sometimes reflect sensitive meetings or other developments. That raises serious questions as well. Even though I extend no presumption of regularity to the indictment, it goes without saying that if the allegations are proved, they are serious. (Indeed, I was one of the drafters of the executive order on classification that the indictment relies on, and I have had our nation’s highest security clearances and the training that comes with it.) So I know well that it’s serious if you mishandle classified info. I just don’t think we know the answer to that “if” yet, and there are a lot of reasons to be dubious. We shall see. Another thing we shall see is both more immediate and more pleasant: some of the largest protests in American history this weekend at the second No Kings Day. As I wrote last week, scholars are able to measure progress against autocracy based on, among other things, the size and scope of public protest. Saturday is going to be a blockbuster, with over 2,500 events and millions of participants from coast to coast. We will cover it all in our big Contrarian livestream wrap-up at 7:30 PM ET Saturday. Please join us! We addressed all of these topics and many more in our Contrarian coverage this week. It was a particularly rich democracy news landscape, as I think you’ll agree when you check out my recap of it all…. Shutdown Chaos & Government HollowingRussell Vought is the tool of a dangerous elite Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse wrote on the Trump crony currently wielding his budget hammer not in service to the people or the Constitution, but for the billionaire class. “Vought is an extremist; a tool of creepy billionaires in the corporate takeover of the U.S. government; and he seems to get unhealthy pleasure from depriving Americans of the government services their tax dollars are supposed to fund.” Federal Firings: Rushab Sanghvi talks Trump’s retaliation against government workers Rushab Sanghvi of the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) broke down Russ Vought’s reduction-in-force assault on the civil service, with notices to approximately 4,200 federal employees on Friday and more to come. “This is a political game and that’s not permitted.” Trump’s CDC firings endanger lives and the economy Josh Levs wrote on the costly chaos of firings and rehirings at the agency fighting the world’s deadliest diseases. “This mess at the CDC is a powerful example of what’s happening to our government.” It doesn’t have to be this way: Neera Tanden on the harms caused by the lasting shutdown Over two weeks into the government shutdown, Neera reminded us of its stakes: health care for millions of Americans, which Republicans are still refusing to address. “The way we fight autocracy is demonstrating to the country that we are the majority.” Is Peace Possible?The good, the bad, and the uncertain in the Middle East peace deal Tom Malinowski analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the Gaza peace deal, giving credit where due while outlining the biggest question marks—including whether Trump has the attention span to insist that Phase Two of the agreement, the part that deploys international and Palestinian security forces to Gaza and creates its governing body, is actually implemented. Jen Rubin couldn’t help but notice the shade thrown in the Nobel Committee’s presentation of this year’s Peace Prize. “If you are going to shine a light on brilliance and excellence, Trump is going to be left in the dark—and others will notice.” Racism, Misogyny, and AutocracyAll roads lead to the Supreme Court Tianna Mays & Pooja Chaudhuri wrote on the Supreme Court case that would prohibit lawmakers from using race as a factor when drawing voting maps—a troubling threat to the Voting Rights Act that puts fair representation for all Americans at risk. The Trump regime’s attacks on our rights double as an affront to democracy Jennifer Weiss-Wolf rounded up the latest attacks on our rights, from weakening support for women in U.S. global policy to the erosion of protections for clinic access. “Women’s, reproductive, and LGBTQ rights must be seen as the central force they are in authoritarian power plays—and mobilizing our own power.” The people disrupting Kamala Harris on her book tour would never do this to white men Carron J. Phillips took an incisive look at Kamala Harris’ book tour, during which she has often been asked to answer for the current administration’s policies in ways that make “double standard” an understatement. “Is the Black woman on stage truly the person you should be directing your anger at, or is she simply the easiest target?” Split Screen: Two women, one historic race Azza Cohen explored the visual presentation of candidates in the Virginia gubernatorial race, both of whom have endured well-worn tropes of visual diminishment. “The deck is already stacked against women candidates in ways that make these visual choices more damaging, more frequent, and more politically consequential.” Turning TidesIt Turns Out, Americans Don’t Want a Police State Jen Rubin wrote on how voters, courts, and even GOP governors are slamming Trump’s militarization of cities, exposing Trump’s “enemy from within” bluster as a bill of goods bought by no one but MAGA cultists. “Donald Trump and his chief attack dog Stephen Miller have bitten off more than they can chew.” Whistles and Horns: Lynn Sweet on Chicago’s response to ICE & No Kings Day Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times joined Jen to share firsthand accounts of her city’s strong response to ICE, federal overreach, and the upcoming No Kings Day Protests. “The city is unified in its support of the Democratic officials who run this place.” The Right had a lock on the internet. Not anymore. Olivia Julianna wrote on Democrats finally finding their digital footing as the shutdown drags on, while Republicans struggle to control the narrative. “For the first time in a long time, Democrats’ digital strategy feels less like catch-up and more like leadership.” The Contrarian covers the Democracy Movement This week we saw dauntless protestors in Chicago, Portland, and Memphis, plus plenty of planning ahead for Saturday’s nationwide No Kings Day rallies. Find a No Kings Day event near you here, and tune in to Jen and Norm and special guests at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday for coverage and analysis of the millions of Americans peacefully standing up to reject Trump’s tyranny. The rise of the frog resistance Shalise Manza Young explains how protestors in inflatable animal costumes are making a mockery of Trump’s lies and the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents playing dress up. As she explains, the humble frog might save us all. Cartoons & Fun StuffThis week our cartoonists took on kangaroo courts (Order in the court by RJ Matson), press restrictions (Irreconcilable differences by Nick Anderson), state violence (Chicago-style by RJ Matson), revisionist history (Un-American! by Michael de Adder), and the nation that has it all (Tom the Dancing Bug by Ruben Bolling). The movie that made me a Diane Keaton fan for life Meredith Blake gave us an ode to the late, dearly lamented Diane Keaton, inspired by her favorite Keaton performance, which probably isn’t the one you’re thinking. “It gets less praise than other films in Keaton’s oeuvre, but to me it perfectly captures her star persona and her appeal to multiple generations of women.” Double Ginger and Honey Flapjacks (British Style) Marissa Rothkopf Bates baked up some hearty snack bars that will keep you energized for the No Kings rallies Saturday! These oaty treats resemble a soft granola bar, but, thanks to butter, brown sugar, and honey, don’t taste anything like them. Take one with you to your nearest No Kings protest! This week’s Contrarian Pet of the Week is the lovely Tony! Tony is a 3-year-old domestic shorthair cat who loves watching birds from the windowsill and chasing flashing lights. Well there you have it Contrarians–another great week of content and of legal action made possible by your paid subscriptions. We are so grateful! We look forward to seeing you at No Kings, at our big livestream wrap of the day at 7:30 PM ET Saturday, and on Coffee with the Contrarians Monday morning at 9:15 AM ET. Until then, have a great weekend. Warmly, Norm |