Europe Must Reclaim the Mediterranean
By Patrick N. Theros - October 18, 2025
President
Donald Trump has, through impulsiveness and brute self-confidence,
seized control of the Middle East file. His personal “plan” has produced
a ceasefire and a prisoner-hostage exchange between Hamas and Israel,
culminating, at least on paper, in a pathway toward Palestinian
sovereignty and an independent state. The problem is that the road from
here to there is dangerously undefined.
There is no possibility
that the Israeli and Palestinian sides can reach a viable agreement on
their own. Israel’s leadership insists there is “no negotiating partner”
on the Palestinian side, a pretext that has become permanent policy.
Even beyond Prime Minister Netanyahu, a broad Israeli consensus supports
that position.
Trump, after exhausting every attempt to work
through Netanyahu, finally realized that the Israeli leader was playing
him, stringing out the “process” while consolidating control over Gaza
and the West Bank. The turning point came when Netanyahu, blinded by
hubris, went too far: the attack on a vital US ally, Qatar, that nearly
killed the Hamas team carrying Trump’s peace plan. At that moment, Trump
grasped that the traditional process was dead and reverted to a
19th-century approach imposing a settlement from above, as great powers
once did.
But President Trump acts as the sole decider on every
issue, foreign, domestic, and economic, and his attention span is
notoriously short. The region’s actors have learned to exploit precisely
that flaw.
Meanwhile, the only Americans physically present at
these negotiations are New York real-estate men, Steve Witkoff and Jared
Kushner, hardly the diplomats one expects to manage a region this
combustible. Around the table sit Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, the
indispensable Arab players who can fund reconstruction and deliver
political cover. Turkey is also there, wielding influence over Hamas and
leveraging its NATO status to assert regional primacy.
And Europe? Europe is nowhere to be seen.
Aside
from a small Italian medical team, a handful of EU officers in UN
peacekeeping units, and limited aid to the Lebanese Army, the EU has no
leverage or seat at the table in a crisis that could reshape its own
security landscape.
European leaders have not been silent, but
their words are weightless. Josep Borrell calls for “a credible path
toward two states.” Commission President von der Leyen stresses
humanitarian aid and Israel’s right to self-defense. Macron urges an
“internationalized” peace process. Scholz speaks of “regional
stability.” Meloni of “humanitarian corridors.” Yet collectively, Europe
still prefers to express concern rather than to act.
Yes, the
Union is preoccupied maintaining unity on Ukraine and rearming against
Russia. But if it wants to be one of the poles in the new multipolar
world, it must prove it can walk and chew gum at the same time.
Grand
strategy within the EU remains a nightmare of unanimity and veto
politics. Most members affirm that peace must include a sovereign
Palestinian state. But Hungary and Slovakia continue to block consensus
despite their lilliputian status.
The countries most exposed to
turmoil, Spain, France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus, at least recognize
the danger. Spain’s Pedro Sánchez calls for recognizing Palestinian
statehood. France seeks a regional conference for Gaza’s reconstruction
and Lebanon’s stability. Italy backs strengthening the Lebanese Army.
Greece and Cyprus quietly expand cooperation with both Arab and Israeli
partners, acting as bridges rather than partisans.
But rhetoric
will not suffice. These states must now push for a place at the table;
they must win the support of the wealthier north, especially Germany.
Traditionally, Washington has kept Europe out of Middle East diplomacy.
But this overburdened and hyper-personalized White House should welcome a
European initiative that shares the burden.
Europe’s
Mediterranean members should join the international force that will
maintain order in Gaza and train a Palestinian security structure. They
should double down on support for the Lebanese Army and transform the
moribund UNIFIL mission into a capable peacekeeping force able to
enforce Lebanon’s international border.
Europe should even
consider creating a limited no-fly zone over Lebanon to stop the
constant bombardment of Israeli drones and missiles. Those who imagine
Israel would challenge such a deployment forget history; every time a
European state has asserted itself militarily, Israel has backed off.
During
Israel’s 2006 invasion of Lebanon, for example, Israeli missile boats
warned a lone Greek frigate to stay away from Beirut. The captain went
to general quarters and steamed straight in, evacuating hundreds of
Europeans trapped by the bombardment. The Israelis did not fire. They
understood the difference between a civilian adversary and a NATO flag.
If
Europe aspires to remain a global actor rather than a geographic
_expression_, it must control its own neighborhood, especially the
Mediterranean. This is its soft underbelly, as Churchill once warned,
and it is now a vacuum drawing in rival powers.
For nearly three
millennia the Mediterranean was Europe’s own lake, from Minoan Crete and
classical Athens to Rome’s mare nostrum and, in modern times, the Royal
Navy’s dominion. It was where European civilization rose, flourished,
and projected its influence on the wider world. It is time to restore
Europe to its proper role, not as a colonial overlord, but as a
stabilizing power responsible for the region that once defined it.
The
United States under Trump has turned the Middle East into a stage for
personal diplomacy. China is moving westward through Syria, Iran, and
the Gulf. If Europe continues to sit out the game, it will end up as the
ball and not as one of the players.
And if leadership is needed,
it should come from where it has always been most credible: Greece. No
European country has warmer or more honest relations with the Arab
world, nor carries the baggage of colonial exploitation. Greece and
Cyprus are not merely the EU’s eastern frontier; they are its bridge to a
region that will decide whether Europe remains a power or becomes a
spectator.
Europe must reclaim the Mediterranean, or others will rule it for centuries to come.