In a major new series of papers, "Target Taiwan," DEFP Asia Engagement Director Lyle Goldstein assesses the risk of an all-out Chinese invasion of Taiwan, what it would mean for the United States and its allies in Asia, and how a war over the island can be avoided.
- In "Prospects for a Chinese invasion," Goldstein shows how Taiwan's proximity to mainland China makes the island critically vulnerable to attack. While an amphibious invasion would be costly for Beijing, they might accept those costs in the interest of preventing Taiwanese independence and completing national reunification.
- In "Challenges for a U.S. intervention," Goldstein makes clear that the United States would be have to bear devastating losses just to get its forces into the fight, while its bases in the region would come under heavy fire from China. Attempting to deploy more forces in peacetime to deter an invasion might have the opposite effect of provoking one.
- In "Limits of allied support," Goldstein argues that U.S. allies in the region like Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Philippines will likely only be willing or able to provide minimal assistance in a Taiwan conflict, with little effect on the outcome.
- In "One China and cross-strait stability," Goldstein concludes that the United States should avoid undermining the One China policy and strategic ambiguity. By shifting toward less ambiguous support of Taiwan, he argues, Washington has made war more likely and change coursed, pushing Taipei to invest more in its own defense.
- Goldstein's series, including a forthcoming fifth paper on how controlling Taiwan would do little for China militarily, strengthens the argument that for the United States, the cost of defending Taiwan far outweighs the benefits. That doesn't mean abandoning Taiwan outright, but U.S. policymakers should consider more more diplomatic and defensive approach in Asia where Taiwan is no longer a first line of defense.
Read the entire series here.
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U.S. bases in range of Chinese ballistic missiles
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Key U.S. bases are in range of Chinese ballistic missiles and will likely be attacked if the United States intervenes in a Taiwan scenario.
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"I think it's really easy to learn the wrong lesson from this, which is, all we have to do is go in and bomb for 45 minutes and then everyone will back down… Most of the time, U.S. military force doesn't actually produce the outcomes that we want."
– DEFP Middle East Program Director Rosemary Kelanic [Fox News / Morgan Phillips]
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- "Europe is right to be concerned about deficiencies in its ability to defend its territory from drones, but the risks of over-reacting to Russian activities along the NATO border are far greater than that of doing too little."
- "Recent drone incidents have surely been irritating for affected states, but they are far from signals that Moscow is preparing for war and the threat they pose is modest at best."
- "Responding to these incursions with moves that increase the potential for or guarantee direct engagement with Russia, however, would create a self-fulfilling prophecy. If NATO's goal is preventing war, a defensive counter-drone posture inside its own territory is surely enough."
Read the full analysis here.
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