Tunisia’s leaders are economically illiterate
Summary: the latest arrest of a leading Tunisian businessman underlines the folly of President Kais Saied. His actions, under the banner of ending corruption, are further stressing an economy already heavily damaged under his autocratic regime.
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The arrest of Ahmed Abdelkefi on 1 October symbolises Tunisia’s drift towards a narrow minded and economically illiterate form of nationalism which is slowly but surely undoing the progress the country had made towards greater freedom of _expression_ after the collapse of the Ben Ali dictatorship in 2011. For all its faults - notably an excess of corporatism and the heavy hand of the state - Tunisia’s economy had progressed and diversified steadily in the half century prior to 2011. That is slowly unravelling as growth has come to a standstill and the weight of state expenditure as a percentage of GDP steadily increased as has the burden of foreign debt. Tunisia has slipped down the rankings of openness and ease of doing business among African and Middle Eastern countries. In the Fraser Institute of Canada’s 2025 Report Tunisia now ranks 124th among 165 countries worldwide and 27th among African countries, way behind Morocco which ranks 9th. The reversal of economic fortunes between Morocco and Tunisia is one of the striking features of North Africa since 2011.
Since 2019 and Kais Saied’s successful presidential campaign which saw him elected with more than 70% of the vote Tunisia’s leaders have shown growing contempt for the rule of law. Neither the Constitutional Court nor the Conseil de la Magistrature have been “activated” since 2019 although they exist on paper. Those appointed to the Constitutional Court are stooges of President Saied. The Conseil de la Magistrature whose official role is to guard the freedom of judges has turned into a rubber stamp for arbitrary decisions. Saied sees any strong business, trade union or political personality as a force to repress. Long ago he decided that confrontation and humiliation - which often includes arbitrary arrest and imprisonment (preventive imprisonment can legally last 14 months in Tunisia) - offer the best means of fighting corruption. Yet treating the business class as a whole as a bunch of crooks whose only purpose is to rob and subvert the state carries its own dangers. Refusing to speak to, let alone heed, the advice of the country’s major trading partners and the likes of the IMF, the World Bank or the European Union only increases the isolation of what is a small country with a very weak economy. Redistributing non-existent wealth will not usher this small, tolerant and historically open economically country onto the shining uplands of democracy.
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Ahmed Abdelkefi, a major figure in the Tunisian business world, was arrested as part of an investigation into financial and administrative corruption at the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations (CDC), a public financial institution under the Ministry of FinanceThe arrest on 1 October of Ahmed Abdelkefi has further soured the president’s relations with a business class which was already wary of investing in a battered and compromised economy. Abdelkefi who is 84 and in poor health stands as a beacon for everything that is financially innovative in Tunisia. After an early career as a senior civil servant and a few years in Abu Dhabi Ahmed Abdelkefi launched Tunisia Leasing in 1984 followed in quick succession by Africinvest in the early 1990s, one of the most experienced private equity investors on the continent managing more than 20 funds worth an estimated US$2bn. Abdelkefi also conceived the first large integrated tourist resort in Tunisia at Port El Kantaoui. He opened what remains the best restaurant serving traditional Tunisian cuisine in a superbly modernised old town house in the medina (the old town) of Tunis. The Fondook el Attarine restaurant, set in a beautifully restored building near the 9th century Al-Zitouna Mosque has done more than any state project to make the 16th century medina attractive to foreign visitors. This was followed a few years ago by a boutique hotel which combined the best of two old medina house with a modern minimalist décor. Here as on the walls of Tuninvest hang the best of modern Tunisia art. Ahmed Abdelkefi is a patron of the arts who did more than successive presidents ever did to promote local talent.
If ever there was a man of new ideas with a capacity to see them through, Abdelkefi is that man.
Other well known businessmen or ministers have been arrested and imprisoned only to be released without charge. The highly respected exporter of olive oil whose CHO Group accounts for 55% of the exports worldwide of Tunisian olive oil, Abdelaziz Makhloufi, was arrested more than a year ago and no charges have been brought. The former minister of the environment Riadh Mouakhar has just been released after two years in jail with all charges against him dismissed. (Compensation for those detained for long stretches of time and released without charge or who have had charges against them dismissed is 3 dinars a day, a derisory amount worth approximately one US dollar.)
The commentator Kamel Jendoubi has harsh words for a policy he calls turning “the judiciary into an extortion machine.” It is a policy with echoes of the actions of the powerful heir to the Saudi throne Mohammed Bin Salman who in 2017 had dozens of wealthy Saudis including royal princes locked up in Riyadh’s Ritz Carlton hotel where they were forced to sign away large chunks of their assets. Likewise after Abdelaziz Bouteflika was removed as president in 2019 Algerian leaders arbitrarily arrested and seized the assets of many businessmen close to him with a view to lining their own pockets.
Kais Saied cannot be accused of being personally corrupt but slowly and surely he is destroying the economy of a country which unlike Algeria and Saudi Arabia has no oil wealth. He may have cut the current deficit from an average of 8.8% of GDP from 2010-2019 to 4% in 2021-2024 and maybe 2.7% this year. But the rate of savings is collapsing: from an average of 23.1% of GDP between 2010-2019 to 10.7% in 2025. Public investment has cratered and oil, wheat and certain staples, all of which are heavily subsidised, account for an ever greater share of imports. At the same time imports of machinery have fallen dramatically, an ill-omen if ever there was one.
Population statistics too bear looking at: the number of Tunisians has just reached the 12m mark but the middle classes feeling the economic pressures are more and more reluctant to have children. That is because 48.9% of young people between 15 and 19 years of age are unemployed. The figure falls to only 39% for those between 20 and 24. Even worse for future economic growth the number of Tunisians who have left the country for a better life in the Middle East or Europe between 2019 and 2024 stands at 159,000 a doubling in five years. Most of those departing are well qualified.
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