President Donald Trump was in Kuala Lumpur over the weekend to attend a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, where his schedule included a ceremonial signing ceremony for an enhanced ceasefire agreement that he helped mediate earlier this year between Cambodia and Thailand, as well as a flurry of deals on trade and critical minerals with three countries in the region.
Yet Trump’s penchant for imposing steep tariffs on its trading partners cast a long shadow over the proceedings in a region that has long relied on trade for economic growth. While the deals Trump signed with three Southeast Asian trading partners carve out tariff exemptions for certain goods, they all maintain a 19 percent baseline U.S. tariff rate.
Indeed, when it comes to trade, the most meaningful meetings in Kuala Lumpur happened without Trump in the room. On Monday, after he left to travel on to Tokyo, the 15 countries that comprise the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership held their first summit since 2020 and agreed to speed up integration efforts and the addition of new members. RCEP, as the deal is known, is the world’s largest trading bloc, comprising 30 percent of global economic output.
Several leaders who attended the meeting took the opportunity to speak out against rising protectionism and in favor of upholding a rules-based multilateral trading system. “Amidst today’s global uncertainties, which include shifts to inward trade policies, ASEAN’s commitment to a rules-based trading system remains our strongest anchor,” said Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
Of course, the countries that make up RCEP—10 ASEAN states plus China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand—represent a diverse array of political and economic systems, with many points of tension that will impede further implementation of the deal. But along with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership—the successor deal to the TPP, which Trump pulled out of in 2017—RCEP remains a prominent example of Asia-Pacific nations shaping the regional economic order without the United States.
Washington’s inattention to economic engagement in Asia did not start with Trump. Analysts have long criticized the U.S. approach to the region as being overly focused on security-related issues. Veteran Asia hand Evan Feigenbaum even quipped that the Americans are in danger of becoming “the Hessians of Asia.”
Yet signs have recently emerged that the Trump administration’s heavy-handed approach to trade policy is bleeding into the security realm, causing geopolitical swing states in the region to realign with U.S. adversaries. A New York Times investigation this week found that Vietnam is stepping up its purchases of military equipment from Russia and deepening diplomatic contacts with China and North Korea. The reasons have to do with U.S. aid cuts and steep tariffs, including levies on imports of Vietnamese furniture, a key industry that the ruling Communist Party has prioritized.
Vietnam and other countries across the region are still likely to do business with the United States where they can. But the main qualities they look for in trading partners are consistency and predictability—not exactly Trump’s strong suits.
Elliot Waldman is World Politics Review’s editor-in-chief.