The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
James discusses this week’s Middle East developments on Radio Islam.
Transcript
[Anchor] Middle East Report with James M. Dorsey on Sabah al-Muslim. James, a very good morning to you and welcome.
[James M. Dorsey] Good morning, pleasure to be with you.
[Anchor] So, Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, two peas in a pod. Their commonalities foot a global pattern, though.
[James M. Dorsey] Indeed. So, Netanyahu and Trump both crave others’ lands. They are ethno-nationalists with a particular dislike for Muslims.
They blur the lines between the civilisational and the national. They opt for indiscriminate violence despite available alternatives. And they are autocrats who hollow out democracy.
In addition to that, they share many of these traits with a critical mass of world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Modi, Narendra Modi, and, of course, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. They all have also a healthy disregard for the law, a distorted definition of human rights, and a warped sense of the truth. All of this has an impact on what’s going to be happening in Gaza.
In other words, the commonalities coupled with their country’s positioning in the geopolitical pecking order and their political priorities is going to shape the approach towards tactical differences regarding, for example, potential annexation of the West Bank, ending the Gaza War, and the Strip’s future. What that means will be clear as Trump tries to move from the first phase to the second phase of his Gaza ceasefire proposal involving post-war security and governance arrangements.
[Anchor] Now, as Hamas returns more remains of deceased Israeli captives, the U.S. President approaches to crush time on whether he can move from the first to the second phase of his Gaza ceasefire proposal.
[James M. Dorsey] Indeed, Trump says the creation of an international stabilisation force that would enter Gaza will happen soon. The United States has already circulated a draft resolution in the United Nations Security Council that would anchor the force and the Trump plan in international law.
The chances of the draft being adopted depends on answering key unanswered questions, including whether Hamas and Israel can agree on what the force’s mandate will be, what constitutes disarmament, what a post-war technocratic Palestinian administration of the Strip would look like, and whether it would be under the guardianship of a board presided by Donald Trump.
Getting agreement on the answers to those questions is easier said than done.
[Anchor] Now, evangelicals to the rescue. I mean, it may seem like an oxymoron, James, in the case of Gaza and Palestine, yet the ground seems to be shifting under the core where traditional pro-Israel pillars of U.S. President Donald Trump’s support base.
[James M. Dorsey] Indeed, a survey carried out by the Barnar Group, a Christian research organisation, found that support for Israel among evangelicals, particularly the youth aged between 18 and 29, had dropped dramatically even before the Gaza war. The survey showed that support had plunged from 75% in 2018 to 34% in 2021. The shift in attitudes among Western, particularly American evangelicals, is compounded by the rise to prominence of non-Western evangelicals.
Including Palestinian and Middle Eastern communities, who account for 70% of the global evangelical community, and may share a belief in end times, but have not politicised it. To name just one example, the World Evangelical Alliance, which represents 600 million evangelicals in 161 countries, appointed in August a Nazareth-based Israeli-Palestinian as its General Secretary.
[Anchor] So, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Salman won’t give Trump what he wants when he visits the President in the White House later this month. Trump wants Saudi recognition of Israel, but Salman will only entertain the thought if there is a credible pathway to a Palestinian state.
[James M. Dorsey] Trump seems to be grappling at straws. This week’s announcement that Kazakhstan would join the Abraham Accords that led to the recognition of Israel in 2020 by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan is meaningless. Kazakhstan recognised Israel in the early 1990s, has an embassy in Tel Aviv, and has close relations with Israel.
Speculation that Saudi Arabia, the crown jewel in recognition, will agree to establish diplomatic relations with the Jewish majority state when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits Trump on November 18, may be encouraged by the Kazakh PR stunt, is pie in the sky. Bin Salman wants formal relations with Israel, but only if there is a credible pathway to the creation of an independent Palestinian state. And that, at best, is a long-term prospect.
[Anchor] Indeed. James, as always, thank you for your time and for the analysis.
[James M. Dorsey] As always, it’s my pleasure. Have a great week, James. And the same to you.
[Anchor] jamesmdorsey.substack.com You can check out James’ latest articles there.