Anti-dumping investigations against China risk new trade tension
Cheap exports trigger pushback -- and not just from US
BEIJING/MUMBAI/HANOI -- Investigations into low-priced exports from China are spreading worldwide as countries seek to protect domestic industries, raising the possibility of new trade friction with emerging markets.
In the first half of 2025, 79 probes for possible anti-dumping and countervailing duties against Chinese products were initiated, according to the World Trade Organization.
The number of such cases per half remained in the 20-30 range from 2021 to the first six months of 2023, but jumped to 125 in the second half of 2024.
If an exporting country sells products abroad at unfairly low prices compared to domestic prices, the importing country can impose anti-dumping duties to offset the difference. Countervailing duties are measures taken when an exporting country subsidizes products sold abroad, lowering their prices. Both kinds of measures are permitted by the WTO.
The U.S. launched the most China-focused investigations in the first six months of 2025, with 21. India followed with 10 investigations, and other big emerging economies like Mexico and Brazil also had a notable number.
"New friction may arise between China and countries of the Global South," said Toru Nishihama, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
Brazil began an inquiry into steel products sourced from China in June, while India started investigating Chinese solar power components and mobile phone covers in September.
Japan launched probes into Chinese-made cold-rolled stainless steel sheet and galvanized steel sheet from July.
China's trading partners fear the world's second-largest economy is exporting deflation. Despite shrinking domestic demand due to a real estate slump, China maintains excessive production capacity and exports the surplus.
Unit prices on an average of 68% of 17 major export items fell from a year earlier in January to October, based on preliminary trade statistics released monthly by China's General Administration of Customs. The proportion rose to nearly 70% in 2023 and has remained high since then.
China's leadership under President Xi Jinping is moving to ease deflationary pressure by reining in overproduction. Industries like electric vehicles and steel have been instructed to curb excessive price reductions, output and investment. But demand remains sluggish, and it will likely take time for the export glut to subside.
As the Trump administration raises tariffs, China has positioned itself as a global champion of free trade. But the emerging economies that are recipients of these cheap exports are increasingly pushing back.
Some have resorted to retaliatory tariffs and other measures. Thailand decided to impose tariffs on citric acid and other products in July. Vietnam imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel plate and other products from July.
Beijing could hit back with similar duties. In September, it designated pork and related products from the European Union as being unfairly dumped, requiring Chinese trading companies importing these products to pay a deposit equivalent to more than 60% of the import value.
The measure is seen as a retaliation against additional tariffs imposed by the EU on Chinese electric vehicles.
Additional reporting by Kosuke Inoue in Bangkok