Sanctions hit Russia's Arctic oil route
US sanctions have almost doubled the duration of Russia's oil shipments to China via the North Sea Route. While deliveries on the Arctic route exceed seven weeks, the Suez Canal route, which is not affected by sanctions, has now become a faster alternative.
Russia's priority to develop the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which shortens the freight delivery time between Asia and Europe, has been nullified by this year's sanctions.
The inclusion of all tankers carrying oil from the Arctic region and the Baltic ports to China on the sanctions list eliminated the time advantage of the route.
Delivery time exceeded seven weeks
KDR, whose capacity has expanded with the melting of ice in the Arctic, normally reduces the cruition between Asia and Europe to almost halve.
However, according to Bloomberg's data analysis on ship movements, the delivery time of Russia's oil tankers has increased by about three weeks compared to last year, exceeding seven weeks.
Sanctions hit the Arctic route
All tankers that sail via KDR from the Baltic ports such as Murmansk, Primorsk and Ust-Luga are subject to US sanctions.
Just before handing over on January 10, 2025, the Joe Biden administration added about 180 ships operating on the Arctic routes to the sanctions list.
As a result of this step, the delivery time from Murmansk to China increased from 27 days last year to 48 days this year, and shipments from Baltic ports increased from 31 days to 50 days.
The Suez Canal became a faster alternative
On the other hand, the delivery times of shipments made via the Suez Canal by traveling around Europe have almost not changed.
Tankers departing from the Baltic reach their destination in 53 days instead of 51 days on this route.
Most of the ships operating on this western route fall outside the scope of American sanctions.
Transporting oil from Murmansk to China has become faster compared to KDR, as it now takes 42 days through the Suez Canal.
However, this period is still quite longer than shipments from the Arctic route last year.
The tankers departing from Murmansk last year went to China using only the Arctic route, indicating that the western route was adopted as an alternative in 2025.
Warning from the International Energy Agency
After Washington imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil in October, hundreds of ships carrying about 70 to 80 percent of Russia's oil exports were subject to restrictions.
The International Energy Agency said in a statement on Thursday that the latest sanctions “may have the most comprehensive consequences for global oil markets.”
The agency added that this situation carries a "remarkable risk of decline" in oil production in Russia.
The reason for the delay is ship-to-ship oil transfer
According to Bloomberg, one of the main reasons for the delay on KDR is that sanctioned tankers now transfer oil to other ships at sea.
This method, which increases shipment costs and delivery times, is used to hide the origin of oil or mix it with different types.
This year, 11 of the 18 oil tankers that passed through the KDR turned off their transponders on the Pacific coast, transferring cargo to other ships, making it difficult to monitor.
Although it is also seen as a possibility that tankers will spend more time to find buyers, it is stated that the oil has finally reached Chinese ports.