Algeria’s outdated strategy loses its shine
Summary: as its Maghreb neighbour Morocco flourishes Algeria’s lack of economic agility coupled with a heavy reliance on Russian weaponry means the country is failing to capitalise on opportunities presented by the war in Ukraine.
We thank Francis Ghilès for today’s newsletter. Francis is a senior associate research fellow at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) and a visiting fellow at King’s College, London.
Never since it emerged on the world stage in 1962 after a bitter fight for independence from France have the winds of change buffeted Algeria with such force. Africa’s largest country is in the uncomfortable position of confronting the new political games in north west Africa from a position far weaker than it once had. It is embroiled in the worst diplomatic crisis with France in decades. And it is further discomforted by Russia which supplies three quarters of its weapons and is turning its troubled eastern neighbour Libya into the operational hub of an ever growing African cluster of influence.
The Western Sahara question
Since 1975 Algeria has viewed the indigenous people of the Western Sahara, the Saharawi, and their struggle for liberation as similar to its own decolonisation history. That helped to anchor the idea that defending the policy of an independent Western Sahara must become the cornerstone of Algerian foreign policy. This has severely restricted its diplomatic capacity to play an active role on other fronts. Chadli Bendjedid, Algeria’s president from 1979 to 1992 recognised as much when he renewed diplomatic links with King Hassan II in 1983 arguing that economic cooperation notably the building of the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline to Iberia via Morocco would help contribute to a solution to the conflict. Chadli also initiated a policy of bold domestic economic reforms because he understood that the collapse of the Soviet Union was imminent and the world was changing. Those reforms were quickly buried however in the ashes of Algeria’s civil war in the 1990s.
Last month, the UN Security Council endorsed Morocco’s plan for autonomy of Western Sahara as offering the best chance to solve the fifty year- old dispute over the status of this former Spanish colony but it only did so in the preamble and not the main text of the resolution. Three permanent members of the Security Council voted in favour: the US (which recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara at the end of Donald Trump’s first presidency in exchange for the kingdom’s joining the Abraham Accords) was joined by France and the UK. Russia and China abstained.
Following the vote at the UN, Russia denounced the “cowboy” behaviour of Donald Trump but Algeria chose not to criticise the US president whose relations with Morocco’s King Mohamed VI are described as “strategic” while those with Algerian leaders are best described as “good”.
In any event it is clear that Morocco has imposed its own narrative leaving Algeria isolated on the Western Sahara issue.
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Polisario fighters on patrol, sustained by Algerian support, in the contested Western Sahara region - a key flashpoint in the Maghreb rivalry
Morocco builds economic and diplomatic clout
Morocco has enhanced its international stature and has economic and diplomatic swagger unthinkable two decades ago. That’s thanks to the network of economic friends it has built across Africa while promoting the role of its diaspora in developing the kingdom. It has also built security links with Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Morocco attracts a growing volume of foreign direct investment. Meanwhile Algeria is stuck in a command economy system which discourages private investment. Sonatrach, the state monopoly of hydrocarbons, has less gas to export every year (56.58bn cubic metres in 2010, 49bn in 2024) because subsidies make its domestic fuel and electricity prices the cheapest in the world hence domestic consumption accounts for roughly half the gas produced. That combined with a slow rise in production deprives the country of a powerful diplomatic and economic tool even as the EU is desperate for more gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Since the turn of the century, two successive Algerian presidents have eviscerated the senior civil service, confirming that Algeria is a master at devouring its brightest children. Lasting damage was inflicted on the management of Sonatrach by the corrupt ways of its CEO (and minister of energy) from 1999 to 2010, Chakib Khelil. The powerful Algerian army and security forces also bear blame for this impasse. Until the aborted elections of 1992, the army interacted with civil society through various networks but since the 2000s has retreated into a bunker, refusing to acknowledge civil society, let alone the contribution the country’s diaspora could make to modernise the economy. It was completely taken by surprise when the street spoke through the powerful voice of the Hirak movement in 2019. That voice for change has been silenced for now but the street will speak again.
The country’s failure to devise a strategy for the 21st century stands in sharp contrast to Morocco which has successfully inserted itself into African, European, American and broader economic and security networks. In the process the kingdom has appointed its brightest sons and daughters to key posts in industry, finance and diplomacy.
The Russia problem
More recently, Algeria has felt betrayed by Moscow which provides two thirds of its weapons though it is not strictly speaking an ally. Privately anxiety is being stoked by the growing presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya and three Sahel countries, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Publicly Algeria has not commented which rather makes its denunciation of French “neo-colonial’ interference in the region sound hypocritical. That’s particularly the case given that the behaviour of the mercenaries of the “Africa Corps” (formerly known as the Wagner Group) are far more brutal than anything French troops might be accused of.
Algeria is less worried by the eastern Libyan warlord General Haftar being a Russian proxy as by his being part of the Emirati strategy of expanding in the Maghreb. Thus Algeria finds itself in the uncomfortable position of attempting to confront the regional activities of the UAE which are being facilitated by Russia, its long-term arms supplier.
Ongoing instability in the Sahel is causing further dilemmas for Algeria. As fighters of Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) close in on Bamako the capital of Mali, Russian mercenaries backing the Malian army chief and president Assimi Goïta are facing their first serious reversal in a region where they have been active since French troops left Mali in 2022.
Algeria’s reputation as a fighter against terrorism (even if its security forces have not been very active outside their country) raises the question of why it has not done more to mitigate the growing momentum of JNIM. It cannot be in its security interests to have a hub of jihadists on its southern border.
Challenges and opportunities
North Africa today is central to EU interests. The current instability in the Sahel will amplify Algeria and Europe’s migration pressures. How does Algeria intend to handle these challenges? The decision of President Tebboune to pardon the jailed Algerian/French writer Boualem Sansal on 12 November thanks to the mediation of the German president opens the doors to better relations with France and the EU in general (with whom Algeria is negotiating a new economic agreement.) New thinking on North Africa, Algeria in particular, is badly needed in Brussels. Now is the time for Algeria and its leading European gas partners to rebuild relations to reflect the realities of 2025. Italy, Sonatrach’s main foreign gas customer, is overtaking France as Algeria’s second most important trading partner after China, followed by Spain and France.
The Abraham Accords and its cordial relations with Algeria notwithstanding, the US has far fewer interests in the Maghreb than has Europe. Greater cooperation on energy, economic matters and migration would benefit both shores of the western Mediterranean, not forgetting the many millions in Europe who have strong links with the Maghreb. There are opportunities but for them to be realised Algeria needs to rethink its attitude to the EU. As does the EU to Algeria.
Algeria’s dilemma is that it is hamstrung: it cannot express its true feelings about Russia. There is only so far you can go in criticising your key provider of weapons. However, having the best equipped army in Africa turns out to be a waste of money that will not contribute to a better integration into Europe - and the world’s - economic networks.
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