In a major setback for President Daniel Noboa, voters in Ecuador on Sunday rejected a proposal to allow the return of foreign military bases. With almost 90 percent of ballots counted, nearly two-thirds voted “no” on the measure. |
Noboa had backed the referendum as necessary to help Ecuador’s armed forces fight back against the drug cartels that have engulfed the country in violence. Had it passed, it would have paved the way for U.S. forces to return to an airbase in Manta, on the Pacific coast, which served as an American hub for counternarcotics operations until the leftist former President Rafael Correa refused to extend the lease in 2008. |
The question about foreign military bases was one of four ballot proposals decided on Sunday. The others would have ended public funding for political parties, reduced the number of lawmakers in parliament, and created an elected body to rewrite Ecuador’s constitution, which was enacted under Correa. All of them were rejected. |
In a social media post, Noboa acknowledged the defeat. “We respect the will of the Ecuadorian people. Our commitment does not change; it strengthens. We will continue to fight tirelessly for the country that you deserve, with the tools that we have.” |
Noboa convincingly won a full term as president in April, following his victory in a snap general election in 2023. He has taken a heavily militarized approach to fighting gang violence while also pushing back on institutional checks on his power, leading critics to charge that he is imitating Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s mano dura, or iron-fisted, approach to governance. |
While that approach has garnered support from many Ecuadorians, it was not enough to push through his desired constitutional revisions. That is partly due to unpopular decisions that Noboa has taken recently, including his elimination of a popular diesel subsidy that resulted in higher fuel prices. |
But analysts also point to residual unease in the country over U.S. military involvement in the past. When the U.S. base at Manta was active, it faced complaints from community groups about alleged abuses committed by American personnel such as harassment and destruction of local vessels, as well as the expansion of the sex work industry near the base. |
The referendums also took place against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump’s military build-up in the Caribbean and the ongoing campaign of lethal airstrikes against alleged drug-smuggling vessels, which legal experts have characterized as extrajudicial killings. |
Trump and Noboa “assumed the Ecuadorian people would go along with restoring the military base that existed before on the coast,” Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, told Al Jazeera. “And this is clearly the Ecuadorans rejecting that. They prize their sovereignty, their independence.” |
Shifter added that the Trump administration’s boat-bombing campaign in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific—which Noboa has supported—also weighed on the minds of Ecuadorian voters. “They are very suspicious, very mistrustful of the U.S. administration, especially as they are watching what’s going on with blowing up of boats and killing people in the Caribbean and in the Pacific as well.” |
Still, the referendum results should not be seen as a blanket rejection of foreign cooperation on countering drug cartels. As the ones facing the brunt of cartel-fueled violence in their country, Ecuadorians will likely still support foreign assistance to tackle the problem. But with these votes, they have signaled a lack of appetite for the kind of heavy-handed tactics employed by the U.S. in the past. |