As It Prepares for Multifront Wars of Attrition, the IDF Faces a Manpower Crunch and Spiraling Costs - Israel News
The uncertainty and instability in the region demand a rapid recovery by the IDF, a process that hasn't truly begun. The most acute crisis is manpower. This week, the Knesset was informed that around 600 career officers have requested early retirement. This reflects a much broader trend across units and directorates, driven in part by the harsh experiences of the recent war.
The Personnel Directorate is reporting a shortage of around 12,000 conscript combat troops, a problem that can only be worsened by legislation exempting ultra-Orthodox men from the draft. Reservists have already been informed that they may be called up for 70 days next year.
The IDF must also urgently rebuild its stockpiles of ammunition and weapons, while updating operational plans and finalizing long-term arms procurement deals. It's clear that the IDF can't return to the pre-October 7 model of routine border security. Four battalions, half of whose people are home on weekends, will no longer suffice to protect communities along the Lebanese and Gaza borders.
A key question concerns the IDF's offensive capabilities. If Iran and Hezbollah have already begun their recovery, what will Israel bring to the next conflict? You don't need classified information to see the need to replenish the vast quantities of munitions and interceptor missiles expended over the past two years. How can Israel hope to surprise its adversaries if most of its winning cards have already been played?
The IDF's multiyear plans were originally crafted for a four-week war in Lebanon followed by two weeks in Gaza. Just before the war, under then-IDF chief Herzl Halevi, there was talk of extending the time frame. It's now clear that preparations must also account for prolonged, multifront wars of attrition, even if the extended fighting this time was largely Benjamin Netanyahu's choice (or lack thereof).
These requirements translate into unprecedented budgetary demands. Broadly, the Defense Ministry is projecting a 2026 budget of 144 billion shekels (about $44 billion), of which roughly 100 billion shekels will go to procurement and equipment, 37 billion to reservists and 7 billion to operational readiness. This scenario doesn't factor in a potential escalation to full-scale war next year.
Behind the scenes, as usual, a tug-of-war is going on between the finance and defense ministries. Unusually, Defense Minister Israel Katz hasn't engaged; he seems preoccupied with other urgent matters, some of which could serve him in the Likud primary, like the closing of Army Radio.
Netanyahu, too, has yet to weigh in. Israel's defense industries remain central to the picture. The Defense Ministry must channel funds to secure production for major projects.
At the same time, global demand for Israeli weapons has surged since the war. Countries that distanced themselves from Israel, and in some cases imposed partial arms embargoes due to its actions in Gaza, are now quietly seeking ways to resume defense deals.
This trend is also connected to global instability hot spots: China and Taiwan in East Asia, and Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe. Indo-Pacific and European countries are expanding defense budgets and need rapid coordination.
In an ironic twist of history, Israel is helping to upgrade the defense capabilities of Germany and Japan, liberal democracies but with complex historical legacies. India, free of such baggage, has now become Israel's leading partner in massive joint production contracts.