If you are caught between a dog with a full bladder and a fireplug, you are going to get a golden shower. If the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen gets her way, Belgium faces an unpleasant hosing down. Some European members of NATO, eager to save a Ukraine that is beyond salvation, are desperately trying to figure out a way to steal Russian assets held by Euroclear without admitting that they are guilty of theft. The European Commission is the most vocal advocate for using the cash and windfall profits generated by frozen Russian sovereign assets held at Euroclear (and similar EU institutions) in a deceitful scheme to back large loans for Ukraine’s budget, defence, and reconstruction. It presents this as an unprecedented but legally “safer” reparations‑loan mechanism that leaves Russia’s ownership claim over the underlying assets formally intact while redirecting the income and cash balances they generate. But anyway you paint it, it is still theft and Belgium is squirming at the prospect. To understand what is going on you need a brief tutorial on Euroclear. Euroclear is a Brussels-based global securities depository that holds approximately €200–300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets (as of December 2025) as a consequence of EU sanctions post-Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The EU’s plan, advanced in early December 2025, aims to seize or leverage these for a €50 billion loan to Ukraine, but Belgium—Euroclear’s host nation—has rejected it, citing unacceptable risks. Belgian officials argue the move would expose the country to “massive liability” as the legal situs of the assets, potentially paralyzing the scheme. Below are the primary risks, based on Belgian government statements, Euroclear’s concerns, and expert analyses. Son of the New American Revolution is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. The biggest problem for Belgium is that Russia has threatened Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) proceedings against Belgium under bilateral investment treaties (e.g., the 1989 Russia-Belgium-Luxembourg agreement), claiming the seizure as “theft” and seeking billions in compensation. These treaties, predating the war, could result in arbitration at bodies like the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, with penalties up to €33–50 billion (matching Russia’s estimated losses). Belgium, with good cause, believes it would come out on the losing side of this arbitration. Belgium views the EU plan as “illegal under international law,” potentially violating property rights and exposing the state to direct lawsuits, unlike other EU members without similar treaties. The EU’s guarantees (e.g., shared liability) are deemed insufficient by Brussels. As Euroclear’s regulator and host, Belgium would face indemnification claims from clients or Russia, straining its €500 billion sovereign wealth fund or requiring taxpayer bailouts. Euroclear has already warned of “catastrophic” operational disruptions, including client withdrawals that could cost Belgium €10–20 billion in lost financial activity annually. Russia, for its part, has warned that seizure will trigger retaliatory Russian asset freezes on Belgian holdings abroad (~€33 billion already confiscated by Moscow), which will escalate economic warfare. Euroclear’s neutrality as a “safe harbor” for global securities (handling €37 trillion) would be undermined, deterring investors and eroding Belgium’s status as a financial hub (e.g., Brussels as EU capital). The firm has expressed “serious concerns” over being politicized, potentially leading to a 10–15% drop in custody volumes. Belgium’s stance has stalled the EU plan, prompting calls to redistribute assets (e.g., €25 billion outside Euroclear) to mitigate these risks. Critics argue it’s overly cautious, but Belgian PM Alexander De Croo has prioritized “legal certainty” to avoid “unintended consequences.” The Europeans need to listen to a Beatle’s classic… Money can’t buy you love (sex, but not love) and it can’t buy Ukraine a victory over Russia. Notwithstanding the rhetoric spilling out of their gaping yaps, the Europeans are not willing to give Ukraine all that they got to give if it means the Europeans have to use their own funds. T'is better to go on a weapons shopping spree with another nation’s credit card. I have another movie clip for you that captures what Europe may have done already with the Russian assets… Think of Europe as the character played by Jim Carrey, but not as smart: Danny Davis and I had an excellent chat today: Son of the New American Revolution is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Invite your friends and earn rewardsIf you enjoy Son of the New American Revolution, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe. © 2025 Larry C Johnson |