China can sustain 5 to 6% GDP growth through 2035: economist
Tech, talent and the Chinese system give Beijing unique advantages over other late-developing economies, top economist says
Justin Lin Yifu, dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University and a former chief economist at the World Bank, said China could achieve breakthroughs in US technology “choke points” within five years and raise its per capita gross domestic product to about half that of America’s by 2049.
“Once our nation’s per capita GDP is half that of the United States, the great goal of national rejuvenation will be realised. At that point, US-China relations will also improve,” Lin wrote in a commentary published in the Beijing Daily.
He said China has the capacity to sustain per capita GDP growth of about 8 per cent through 2035, supported by productivity gains and its “latecomer” advantage – where developing countries learn from the innovations, successes and failures of early movers.
Factoring in structural constraints such as a rapidly ageing population, Lin argued the country could still deliver average annual GDP growth of 5 to 6 per cent through 2035, before moderating to 3 to 4 per cent between 2036 and 2049.
By mid-century, China’s three eastern municipalities and five coastal provinces could reach developmental levels comparable to those of the US, he said.
Lin, who served as a counsellor to the State Council from 2013 to 2023, attributed today’s pessimism about China’s growth prospects partly to US–China tensions, but said Washington does not monopolise all the technologies Beijing needs.
“Other advanced economies possess these technologies as well, and they are willing to trade with us.”
China produces more than six million university graduates in STEM fields each year … more than the G7 countries combined
“US ‘choke point’ measures will not defeat us, but we must ensure we have sufficient resources to pursue technological breakthroughs when restrictions arise,” he wrote.
“China produces more than six million university graduates in STEM [science, technology, engineering, mathematics] fields each year, which is more than the G7 countries combined, giving it a significant talent advantage,” he wrote.
The Group of Seven consists of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the US.
Although China still trails the US in per capita GDP and capital strength, Lin argued that talent has become more decisive in the current era due to shorter research and development (R&D) cycles and lower capital intensity.
He added that China’s large domestic market and complete industrial ecosystem also help to rapidly scale new products and technologies.
If China maintains this growth pace and overcomes technological bottlenecks, US hi-tech firms could become increasingly dependent on the Chinese market for R&D and profits by 2049, Lin said.
Trade would become more beneficial to the US, given its consumers’ reliance on affordable Chinese goods, while the cost of decoupling would rise, he added.