From Shakhbut to MBZ: The Evolution of the UAE's Power and Persona
Summary: the United Arab Emirates has transformed from a cautious, tribal confederation under leaders like Sheikh Shakhbut into a bold, strategic global power. This dramatic shift is most evident under President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, whose realpolitik and close alliance with Israel define the UAE's current assertive foreign policy.
The story of the United Arab Emirates is a dramatic tale of a tribal confederation's rapid metamorphosis into a global power player. This journey, from a cautious traditionalism to a bold, strategic assertiveness, is etched in the reigns of its rulers: from the hesitant Sheikh Shakhbut, to the visionary founder Sheikh Zayed, to the contemporary strategic mastermind, President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ).
The modern UAE’s origins can be traced to the rule of Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the ruler of Abu Dhabi from 1928 to 1966. Prior to this, the Abu Dhabi royal family had endured a century of turmoil as its members repeatedly murdered one another in the endless struggle for power. This only ended when Sheikh Shakhbut’s mother made all her sons swear they would never shed each other's blood. The result was that Shakhbut became the first Sheikh of Abu Dhabi to survive for a prolonged period for several generations.
Described in historical accounts as a clever and charming man who wanted the best for his people, Shakhbut was of course illiterate, but highly sophisticated and endowed with a huge intellectual curiosity. He experienced great personal tragedy during his lifetime: both his sons died of alcoholism, although alcohol was illegal, one of them soon after he had to kill his sister for reasons of honour. Shakhbut himself was also firmly rooted in a traditional past and profoundly wary of change, and as the promise of oil wealth loomed, he became bewildered by its implications. His response was often to do nothing, earning him a reputation as a miser and leading to a near-complete lack of modern institutions like a treasury or health service. His rule was defined by loyalty to the British connection, whom he allowed to manage foreign relations and defence. However, his resistance to development and stubborn refusal to spend eventually led to his undoing. In a bloodless coup in 1966, orchestrated with British assistance, Shakhbut was deposed by his younger brother Zayed. Thanks to the pledge to their mother, power passed peacefully.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan could not have been more different from his brother. Where Shakhbut saw risk, Zayed saw opportunity. Even before becoming ruler, he was eager for development, taking the initiative to build roads in Abu Dhabi town while Shakhbut was abroad. As the founding father of the UAE, his vision was transformative. Following the British announcement of their withdrawal from the Gulf in 1968, Zayed, then ruler of Abu Dhabi, met with the ruler of Dubai to discuss a union. He initially envisioned a larger federation including Qatar and Bahrain, but when that proved unworkable, he successfully forged the United Arab Emirates from the seven Trucial States in 1971, becoming its first President. Zayed utilised the nation’s oil wealth for rapid modernisation, building infrastructure, and fostering a strong national identity. A shrewd politician and a generous donor to Palestinian causes, Zayed is remembered as a revered patriarch who consolidated the Al Nahyan family's dominance.
The Al Nahyan family of Abu Dhabi continues to form the bedrock of the UAE’s federal power structure today. Leaked diplomatic cables paint a picture of a tight-knit, powerful ruling family, with Zayed’s six sons from his most prominent wife, Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak Al Ketbi - known as the “Bani Fatima” - holding all key levers of government, security, and finance. This structure ensured a smooth succession after Zayed’s death in 2004, when power passed to his eldest son by his first wife, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan. More of a consensus statesman than a hands-on strategist, Khalifa was a staunch U.S. ally who consistently identified the Palestinian issue as the region's fundamental problem. He played a leadership role in OPEC and focused on economic stability, but was less directly involved in the gritty details of security policy than his ambitious younger half-brother.
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In a major shift from previous Emirati policy, a cornerstone of Mohammed bin Zayed's regional strategy is the exceptionally close, substantive strategic collaboration with Israel, which provides him with significant leverage, advanced technology, and a powerful ally in regional conflictsThe true architect of the UAE’s contemporary strategic direction is Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ). Even as Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces under Khalifa, MBZ emerged as the nation’s primary strategist. A formidable, cunning, and strategically superior operator, diplomatic cables dating from 2009 describe MBZ as “the man who runs the United Arab Emirates" and “the key decision maker on national security issues.” His influence became absolute following Sheikh Khalifa’s passing in 2022, when MBZ formally assumed the presidency.
Since then MBZ has pursued a grand geopolitical strategy reminiscent of historical empire-builders like Alexander the Great or Otto von Bismarck. Rather than military conquest however, he projects influence via economic statecraft, strategic partnerships, and a drive to establish the UAE as a global hub. This has involved deploying troops and proxies in regional conflicts like Yemen and Libya, establishing economic and military footholds across Africa and forging strategic investments and partnerships from Southern Europe to South Asia. MBZ is adept at exploiting rivals’ vulnerabilities through covert media operations and intricate regional alliances, a calculated approach evident in his early support for Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) who MBZ encouraged to secure power before his father, King Salman, died - mirroring MBZ’s own rise before the death of Sheikh Zayed, preempting a rival succession. Though initially allies, their relationship has since devolved into a fierce personal and strategic rivalry.
MBZ’s worldview, extensively detailed in leaked cables, is defined by a deep-seated realpolitik. He is profoundly sceptical of democracy, famously stating, “The Middle East is not California” and detests political Islam, arguing in private that free elections would only empower groups like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood which he views as an existential threat. Instead, he advocates for gradual change through educational reform over a period of decades. Interestingly, the cables note that MBZ himself was sympathetic to the Islamist cause in his youth, saying, “in the 1970s and early 1980s I was one of them”.
MBZ’s anti-Islam stance is matched by an existential fear of Iran, whose leadership he has described as dissembling liars fixated on regional dominance. Wikileaks characterises him as “probably the most passionately anti-Iran of the Arab leaders”, repeatedly urging the U.S. to confront Iran “sooner rather than later” by any means short of “boots on the ground”.
A cornerstone of Mohammed bin Zayed’s regional strategy, in marked contrast to his predecessors, has been the cultivation of an exceptionally close and advanced partnership with Israel. This bond predates the formal Abraham Accords and is more substantive than Israel's connections with any other Arab state, extending far beyond diplomacy into a full-blown strategic collaboration. This relationship provides MBZ with significant leverage, advanced technology, and a powerful ally in his regional cold war, positioning the UAE as Israel's primary and most reliable partner in the Arab world.
A key objective of this UAE-Israeli axis is the promotion of normalisation across the Middle East. For example, the UAE has been a key partner in pushing Bahrain to sign the Abraham Accords; it supported the U.S.'s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Rabat establishing formal ties with Israel and it has publicly praised Omani leaders who made positive statements about Israel. UAE-based companies have purchased and broadcast Israeli TV shows and media content and launched a Hebrew-language news site aimed at normalising the idea of Israel in Arab living rooms. The UAE has also used sophisticated hacking tools to access the phones of Arab activists, journalists, and political figures to suppress anti-Israel protests.
Israel and the UAE also coordinate to pressure other Arab states to dismantle cultural, religious, or media activity that opposes Israel and to remodel them in the UAE's authoritarian image. A recent prime example of this has been the successful pressure exerted on Kuwait to adopt a new charitable law that is a near-carbon copy of the restrictive Emirati model. This legislation not only severely curtails charitable activities but also mandates the creation of a comprehensive database detailing all individuals and operations involved in such work, the alleged purpose of which is to share with the UAE, who in turn funnel it to Israeli intelligence, enabling the mapping and monitoring of anti-Israeli networks. Such subversion is not new: in 2020 the UAE ambassador was expelled from Kuwait after being caught with a large sum of cash allegedly intended to manipulate public opinion. In 2021 the UAE ambassador was expelled from Egypt.
From the cautious isolation of Shakhbut’s era to the bold, strategic calculus of MBZ’s reign, the UAE has undergone a profound transformation. Under the Al Nahyan family's steadfast control, it has evolved from an impoverished desert federation into a savvy, influential global actor, unafraid to form controversial alliances and engage in covert rivalries to secure its dominance in a volatile region.
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