Iran is running out of water
Incompetence can be blamed for much of this catastrophe. But even better-run countries will face this problem.
By Stephen Kinzer – Boston Globe - January 2, 2026
Empty reservoirs, dried-up rivers, and shrinking lakes are harbingers of a water crisis. Iran may be the first large country to fall into this crisis. It is running out of water. Rivers that once fed entire regions have stopped flowing. The reservoir that supplies the capital, Tehran, now holds just 8 percent of its capacity. President Masoud Pezeshkian has suggested that the entire city, home to more than eight million people, may have to be evacuated.
Although some aspects of this rolling catastrophe are specific to Iran, many also apply elsewhere. Data from NASA surveys show that supplies of fresh water have been declining since 2002 in 101 nations, collectively home to three-fourths of the world’s population. Hundreds of millions of people face the prospect of unprecedented water shortages. Iran may be the first country to buckle under this weight, but others are likely to follow.
The effects of this emerging threat to humanity will not be limited to what comes out — or what does not come out — of the faucet. It has clear political implications. Iran has already seen several outbursts of protest over water depletion. Some have been violently suppressed. Eruptions like these, which may be more intense in the future, threaten the stability and social cohesion of a nation. They lend force to other protests, including those over inflation and currency devaluation that have shaken Iran in recent days.
Leonardo da Vinci called water “the driving force of all nature.” Centuries later, the poet W.H. Auden observed that “thousands have lived without love, not one without water.” The prospect of giant cities and even entire countries running out of water, however, is a new phenomenon in the modern world.
The most maddening aspect of Iran’s crisis is that for thousands of years, Iran relied on an ingenious system of water supply based on underground channels called qanats. These gently sloping tunnels, which depend on gravity rather than pumping stations, delivered steady flows even during droughts and were largely impervious to floods, earthquakes, and war. Since the 1960s, however, the qanat system has been replaced by a dense network of dams and deep wells that have proved far less efficient.
Many factors combine to produce an emergency like the one Iran now faces. Populations are growing — Iran has four times as many people as it did 70 years ago. Those who grow crops in the countryside use water inefficiently. Soil erosion produces dust storms that pollute lakes and reservoirs. Climate change has led to severe reductions in rainfall. Economic sanctions make it almost impossible for Iran to contract with foreign firms that could offer mitigation strategies.
The single greatest factor producing this crisis, however, is politics. Iranian policy makers do not welcome public involvement. Their empires of wealth are built on corruption. The powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps has its own dam-building company, called Sepasad, that has built dams for its own profit without considering their long-term effects.
Approaches that are being tried in other countries, ranging from better landscaping to smarter home appliances to “sponge cities” that absorb and store rainwater, might help in Iran, but no one in power is focused on them. Terms like “mismanagement” and “inefficiency” do not capture the extent of this ecocide. Iranians are acutely aware that what they call a “water mafia” is helping to turn Iran from a flowering country known for intricate gardens into an arid landscape.
The Iranian environmentalist Kaveh Madani has asserted that dealing with what he calls “water bankruptcy” requires “a real patriot to be willing to be crucified by the general public but bring a collective win for Iranians in the long term. I don’t think that person currently exists, and the things we see in Iran don’t make a radical reform plausible.”
More than a decade ago, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called on Iranians to use less water. Soon afterward, the Iranian minister of agriculture asserted that declining water supplies posed a bigger threat to Iran than any external enemy and predicted that without radical new measures, the country could become uninhabitable. Warnings like these have produced short bursts of concern but no comprehensive water management strategy.
Some palliative steps are being taken. Water is periodically rationed and shut off at night. New holidays have been proclaimed so that water-guzzling factories will close. Households are penalized for overuse. Yet taps are running dry, leading many Iranians to buy water storage tanks so they can take advantage of times when water flows. Diverting water from outlying regions, many populated by Arabs and other ethnic minorities, has added an element of communal resentment to the already volatile water crisis.
In the 21st century, wars may be fought for resources. Water could become the most valuable of all. Iran’s enemies may enjoy the prospect of political upheaval or collapse there. They would be wiser to take its water crisis as a warning.
Stephen Kinzer is a senior fellow at the Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University.