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The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. James discusses Iran on NDTV. Transcript [Anchor Gaurie Dwivedi] All right, let’s you got the sense of which are the top developments. It’s now time to get you some of the likely scenarios that may unfold as the situation remains deeply volatile and viewers extremely uncertain. Some of these wargaming and scenarios that we are putting out actually may or may not happen simply because of the volatility and the uncertainty that is there right now. A power keg that’s really on the very brink of exploding with global geopolitical repercussions. That’s Iran for you. But as things stand right now, what a possible first scenario could be is that a likely military pathway take place between Iran and US. That flashpoint could lead to some sort of a military path. What could that be? A possible B-2 bomber strike, something that US has already done. Iran knows that that is a fair possibility. What could happen? Nuclear missile and IRGC command nodes could be the ones that could be targeted. Last time around, the B-2 bombers had targeted the nuclear facilities. This time around, it could be the IRGC command nodes. That would mean shock without occupation doctrine, something that US President Fields could send the message across and would also be a response to the kind of backlash he’s facing after Venezuela. Now, what could happen is Iran may respond with calibrated retaliation. There will be some missile and drone attacks targeting US bases. There could be advance notices as well. US has about nine or ten ground bases in the Middle East, some of which it has already withdrawn personnel from. And there may be some advance notices as well. But this is important for the Khamenei regime to send a message to its own people. It leads to no full scale civilian escalation, even though Iran has a face saver. Proxy forces in the entire region may be activated. Which are those? That’s Hezbollah. These are the proxy forces that exist. Hezbollah, Houthis, the Iraqi militias that are close to the Khamenei regime. Israel and Gulf states may be pulled in as well. And that is where the situation may become even more volatile. Straighter foremost, that’s a very, very important shipping line will be the first that could be under attack. Tankers and energy trade will be the one that will be impacted and that will have a cascading impact on the larger global markets. The escalation control phase would mean that US reinforces its carriers, its larger presence there. And there are signals sealing to avoid a regime collapse. This could be the one likely scenario that could play off where back channel lines would be extremely important. Qatar, Oman, Europe, all of them would probably come to ensure that some sort of a face saving negotiation is arrived at. This is the first scenario that’s possible. Now, which brings me to the second possible scenario. Here, what could happen is that there could be some sort of a bigger escalation, may not be a full scale war. No one wants a full scale war. But Donald Trump is coming now fresh on the heels of a success as far as Venezuela is concerned. He didn’t held back there. He didn’t he’s not holding back when it comes to Greenland. He’s saying that America is going to annex Greenland this way or that. Why should he hold back when it comes to Iran? So he may look to demonstrate overwhelming force. It may not just be B-2 bombers. There could be much more. The deployment could include carrier surge. It could be bomber flybys. The message would be very clear that we’re not going to invade you, but look at the capability with which we are speaking at and you don’t want to mess with us. That could be the larger message more than the B-2 bomber strikes in the first scenario. There could be targeted kinetic strikes that may take place. One night shocks that could be in place. The air defence systems of Iran may be completely decimated, designed to humiliate again, not to topple, but to humiliate. Iran may choose to exercise some restraint because it knows how much can it possibly retaliate because it’s not just a couple of B-2 bomber strikes. It’s much more than that. Iran may calibrate and decide it doesn’t want to increase this further. And what U.S. President Donald Trump may look to then do is exercise maximum squeeze for economic and diplomatic possible options. And that will have a cascading impact. Why? Because people are on the streets because they are protesting the fact that they can’t feed their children twice a day. And now if you have more economic squeeze by Donald Trump, how will that impact people in Iran? Very significantly. And that is when the regime may signal that it is willing to talk and what all could be on the table, everything from nuclear limits to getting possibly how many off the table and out of the establishment. All of it may be on the table, even though the talks may be framed as de-escalation. The crisis may pause, but the fault lines may remain till possibly the next flashpoint. Now, viewers, I took you through what could be the likely scenarios that may unfold in Iran. I got your voice from within Iran to tell you what’s really happening right now on ground. Let’s also now get an expert on the entire region to now do a deep dive into how things are going to look like for the entire world. James Dorsey, journalist and Middle East expert, Adjunct Senior Fellow joins me on the broadcast as well. He’s an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in University of Singapore. Professor Dorsey, how is it looking right now, even as we may keep debating on if and when Donald Trump’s regime may enter in Iran, whatever manner it may take, whether there will be strikes, whether there’ll be just something on the lines of B-2 bombers, the larger impact of how things are unfolding right now in Iran, how do you see it? [James M. Dorsey] We’ve been sitting the last 48 to 72 hours on a knife’s edge, if you wish, expecting a U.S. strike against Iranian targets at any moment. That moment has now vanished, at least for the time being. That’s not to say that the possibility of a U.S. strike has been taken off the table, but you have the U.S. president saying that he would strike in protection of the protesters. Now he’s saying that the killings have stopped, that there are not going to be executions of protesters who’ve been charged with violence. So the immediate reason for a U.S. strike is off the table. One of the questions is whether or not this is going to allow for a renewal of U.S. and Iranian contact. The president had said that he had cancelled all contacts initially because of the violence in Iran. [Anchor Gaurie Dwivedi] You know, Dr. Dorsey, now many say that Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime is now on very shaky ground. He has pushed ahead, postponed the execution of one of the protesters. There is some talk about Donald Trump having some sort of back-channel lines of talks with Iran. He made that comment publicly, saying that Iranians want me to come and speak to them on the negotiating table. The larger question, is it time up for the Khamenei regime? [James M. Dorsey] Probably not. This is a very serious crisis, if not the most serious crisis. And the regime is caught in a catch-22. It has no good solution. But some of the key elements that you need for a toppling of the regime aren’t there yet. First of all, you have an opposition that is leaderless, that has no immediate organisation that can take over. Second of all, and more importantly perhaps, you have not seen, and that’s a crucial ingredient in any overthrow, you have not seen a split in the military or the security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Now, this is not to say that change will not happen. There will be fallout from these protests. [Anchor Gaurie Dwivedi] What will that fallout be? [James M. Dorsey] That’s at this point anybody’s guess. But if I were to look at what is most probable, it would be a takeover in one form or the other by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. That means, again, is unclear. The Guard Corps could follow the Venezuelan model and seek cooperation with the United States, principally because it needs sanctions relief in order to address Iran’s structural economic problems. Or, of course, this could be a regime that is much more hardline. [Anchor Gaurie Dwivedi] Which then brings me to ask you this question about Raza Pahlavi. He’s made a clarion call, people came on the streets, he’s giving video statements, he’s got the backing of the Trump administration. Do you expect Raza Pahlavi to play any role in post-protest Iran? I’m not calling it a post-Khamenei Iran because you feel he’s still going to be there. But the post-protest Iran, do you expect Raza Pahlavi to finally come there? Or do you think that isn’t the scenario that we should look at right now? [James M. Dorsey] If I were a gambling man, I wouldn’t put my bets on him. First of all, I think we’ve got to be cautious with the notion that he has the support of the Trump administration. No doubt, Steve Whitkoff, Trump’s special envoy, has met with Raza Pahlavi. Others have met with him, but they have not endorsed him. The reason why I don’t think that Raza Pahlavi is going to be a real candidate for post-Islamic Republic Iran is that despite the fact, by the way, that for the first time in protests in Iran, his name has appeared on slogans in a significant number. The reason I don’t think that he will be the candidate is he does not have an internal organisation. His popular support base is first and foremost among the Iranian diaspora and to a limited extent among ethnic Persians in Iran who account for at most 60 percent of the population. [Anchor Gaurie Dwivedi] Okay. [James M. Dorsey]And he doesn’t have a ision. [Anchor Gaurie Dwivedi] Very quickly, Tim Storsey, completely out of time, which is if not Khamenei, if not Raza Pahlavi, what is it that these Gen Z Iranians want? [James M. Dorsey] Iranians want first and foremost economic relief. They are in truly dire straits. And that’s the first and foremost thing they want. We’ve seen in the past that protests on specific issues as they have evolved into protests demanding regime change. No doubt Iranians want greater freedoms, but many Iranians also are concerned that their struggle for economic relief and for greater freedoms could threaten to bring the country into a situation in which they’re waging civil war against each other. And that’s a situation Iranians do not want. [Anchor Gaurie Dwivedi] All right. I’m going to leave it there. Thanks much, Professor Dorsey, for breaking that down for us, even as the situation remains extremely volatile in Iran. You're currently a free subscriber to The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. |