Trump’s Egypt
Summary: Donald Trump when he is not threatening Greenland is keen to accommodate Egypt in its continuing campaign of repression; for their part Egyptian authorities are displaying ICE-like efficiency in cracking down on refugees fleeing regional wars.
We thank Hossam el-Hamalawy for today’s newsletter, an edited version of his 3Arabawy Egypt Security Sector Report. Hossam is a journalist and scholar-activist, currently based in Germany. He was involved in the Egyptian labour movement and was one of the organisers of the 2011 revolution. Follow his writings on Substack and X.
Trump Designates MB Chapters Under 2 Terrorism Categories, Halts Immigration Visas for Egyptians
The US on 13 January designated branches of the Muslim Brotherhood in Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan under terrorism-related authorities, applying two different legal classifications with varying consequences. According to a State Department statement the Lebanese Muslim Brotherhood was designated a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO) and its leader, Muhammad Fawzi Taqqosh, was listed as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). The Egyptian and Jordanian branches were designated as SDGTs for allegedly providing material support to Hamas.
The move follows an executive order signed by Trump in November, launching a formal review process to classify selected Brotherhood branches. Cairo welcomed the move, while the Egyptian MB denounced it.
An FTO designation is the more severe of the two categories. It criminalises material support, imposes immigration bans and carries potential criminal penalties. SDGT designation, by contrast, is primarily a sanctions tool, allowing US authorities to freeze assets and restrict financial transactions without automatically criminalising membership or association.
A day after the US decree Javier Milei’s Argentina issued a matching designation.
In other news, the US Department of State announced a pause on issuing immigrant visas to nationals of dozens of countries deemed at high risk of relying on public benefits with the measure taking effect on 21 January 2026. Egypt is explicitly included on the list, meaning Egyptian nationals can still apply and attend interviews but will not receive immigrant visas during the suspension.
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This Sunday 25 January marks the 15th anniversary of the “Day of rage” when a massive tidal wave of public fury surged toward Tahrir Square, marking the beginning of the end of the thirty-year rule of the dictator Hosni MubarakTrump Offers Egypt-Ethiopia Mediation
Trump’s newly publicised talk of “mediation” on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam sounds less like diplomacy and more like recycled talking points dressed up as deal-making.
The core of the proposal—energy integration and electricity sharing—has been on the table for nearly a decade, embedded in the 2015 Declaration of Principles and repeatedly floated. Cairo and Khartoum have already accepted this logic in practice, including power-link projects and bilateral energy arrangements.
What the proposal pointedly avoids is the real dispute: unilateral dam management, data sharing, and downstream risk. At this stage, the offer reads as political theatre, not a solution.
UN Experts Urge Lifting Curbs on Freed Rights Defenders
Independent UN experts urged Egypt to lift post-release restrictions imposed on human rights defenders, warning that travel bans, asset freezes, and terrorism listings continue to punish activists despite presidential pardons or completed sentences.
In a statement issued on 14 January, the experts cited cases involving members of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, lawyer Mohamed el-Baqer, and researcher Samir Abdel Hai, all of whom remain subject to restrictions after release.
The experts said the measures rely on vague counterterrorism laws, violate due process and obstruct basic economic and social rights, calling on authorities to comply with international human rights standards.
Escalating Abuses Against Refugees
A new communication by Special Rapporteurs to the UN Human Rights Council has highlighted escalating violations against refugees in Egypt, reinforcing warnings raised in a recent report on the education crisis facing Yemeni refugees. The UN communication documents a sharp rise in arbitrary detention, forced deportations and racialised policing targeting refugees and asylum seekers, particularly those fleeing the war in Sudan, including women and children.
These findings intersect with the situation of more than 6,000 Yemeni students left without schooling after Egyptian authorities closed Yemeni-run community schools in late 2024 while simultaneously tightening residency rules that condition access to education on valid permits.
In related news a renewed crackdown on Syrian refugees in Cairo and Giza began last week, according to activist Nour Khalil.
Maersk Returns to the Suez Canal
A.P. Moller–Maersk said on 15 January it would structurally return its MECL service to the trans-Suez route, marking its first sustained shift back after months of diversions via the Cape of Good Hope.
MECL—short for Middle East–India to US East Coast Line—is a Maersk-operated container service linking Gulf and Indian ports with the US East Coast. The company cited improved stability in the Red Sea, allowing faster and more efficient transit times.
Maersk stressed the move remains conditional, with crew safety and cargo security the top priority, and contingency plans in place should regional tensions escalate again.
Military Runs Development, Welfare Programs
President Sisi convened a meeting on 13 January with senior civilian ministers and top military commanders to review progress in the first phase of the Hayat Karima rural development initiative, as the armed forces continue to expand their role in social welfare, public services, and civilian infrastructure.
The meeting reviewed first-phase works across 20 governorates, comprising more than 27,000 projects with an average completion rate of 90 percent. These span sanitation, drinking water, energy, telecommunications, roads, housing, health care, education, and what officials described as security and community services.
Separately, the Armed Forces said the Northern Military Zone has continued implementing the “Your Country Is With You” campaign in cooperation with the Tahya Misr Fund and civil society groups, distributing food, clothing, medical aid, and assistive devices in Kafr el-Sheikh and Alexandria. Major General Yasser Abdel Moaez el-Khatib, commander of the Northern Military Zone, said the campaign reflects the armed forces’ societal responsibility.
War on Atheism
The Supreme State Security Prosecution has rolled 26 people into a single Supreme State Security case for alleged religious dissent, expanding a campaign that has targeted atheists, agnostics and religious minorities since late 2025.
Among them is social media influencer Shereef Gaber, dragged back before prosecutors despite already serving multiple prison sentences for “contempt of religion,” a charge that exists solely to criminalise thought.
During a meeting last month with senior Awqaf Ministry preachers, undergoing ideological indoctrination bootcamp at the Egyptian Military Academy, Sisi stressed the need for combating “extremism and atheism.”
Capital Punishment
Egypt’s use of the death penalty remained extensive in 2025. At least 15 people were executed by hanging across 10 cases, including one woman. Courts upheld death sentences against 31 defendants in 23 cases, placing them on death row and exposing them to execution at any time.
Meanwhile, criminal courts issued death sentences against 461 individuals in 320 cases, while referring another 405 defendants in 260 cases to the Grand Mufti for a nonbinding opinion ahead of sentencing.
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