Do Americans think China will overtake the US? The results of a survey are in
Releasing the results of a national poll earlier this month, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said 47 per cent of the 1,500 adults surveyed agreed that China had already surpassed the United States or would do so within the next five years.
A further 27 per cent said the shift would take longer, while only 26 per cent said China would never catch up.
The survey was carried out between November 24 and December 1.
Asked where China outperformed the US, 63 per cent pointed to technology – a view shared by 74 per cent of Democrats, 62 per cent of independents and 52 per cent of Republicans.
“[The results imply there is] a consensus across the political spectrum that China is in a strong position technologically,” the researchers said.
“While Americans seem to have internalised China’s status as a technologically sophisticated power, it remains unclear whether they view China as indigenously innovative or simply imitative of the United States.”
Perceptions of China’s economic strength were also widespread, with 42 per cent of respondents saying China held an economic advantage over the United States.
However, most Americans said the US still had a military edge.
At the same time, Americans expressed a strong desire for Washington to retain global influence.
About three-quarters of the respondents said US power and influence worldwide were either very important or somewhat important to them.
However, younger Americans were less likely than their older counterparts to see Asia as an important region for the US to hold sway.
“Just 14 per cent answered that China surpassing the United States would make their lives much worse,” the researchers said.
“This result indicated that very few Americans viewed the potential eclipse of the US power position by China as being catastrophic, suggesting that the general public would not want to endure major financial, military, or other costs to prevent such an outcome.”
The report said the results echoed an April 2025 Pew Research Centre survey indicating that Americans were becoming less overtly adversarial toward China, with only one‑third viewing it as an enemy, down from 42 per cent the previous year.
But there were partisan differences. “Republicans were 18 percentage points more likely than Democrats to say their lives would worsen if China overtook the United States,” the report said.
Age also shaped perceptions of China’s rise.
While 52 per cent of Americans aged 65 and above said their lives would worsen if China overtook the US, only 27 per cent of those aged 18-29 shared that view.
“Perhaps because younger Americans have lived more of their lives in a world with a strong China, they seem less concerned about China’s rising power,” the researchers said.
Most of the respondents – 59 per cent – also agreed that the US was just one of several powerful nations in the world and 54 per cent said they believed that US influence in the world was declining.
“A solid majority of respondents believed their country is no longer in a category of its own,” the report said.