While the risk of disruption to Iranian crude exports looms amid the latest heightened US-Iran tensions, the effect on Chinese refiners would likely be minimal unless an escalation led to a prolonged major loss of exports.
That’s largely due to the massive volumes of Iranian crude on the water — estimates range from above 150 million-190 million barrels — enough to cover roughly four months of Chinese demand for Iranian volumes.
Moreover, Russian crudes are seen by market participants as very competitive with, if not better value than, Iranian crude, and some Chinese refiners are already pivoting toward buying more Russian volumes.
Awash in Iranian Crude
Tanker tracker Vortexa calculates that 152 million-170 million bbl of Iranian crude is on the water, comprising both volumes in transit as well as those in floating storage, most of it in Asia, Vortexa analysts said.
Vortexa estimates that China’s current Iranian crude imports of 1.3 million-almost 1.5 million barrels per day would last from 3½-4 months. The higher range of that figure, however, includes Iranian liquids imports that go into storage and have yet to be bought by refiners.
Data-analytics firm Kpler sees 190 million bbl of Iranian crude in transit and in floating storage, according to a Chinese refiner source who pegs Iranian import volumes at 1.5 million b/d, covering refiners for over four months.
As such, “The Chinese market is not worried at all,” said Vortex analyst Emma Li, adding there might even be “too much” Iranian crude around at the moment.
Unless a potential US strike on Iran led to a complete “long-term” loss of exports, it “should not have any impact on Chinese crude buyers,” said a China-based trader.
Compelling Russian Option
Iranian crude buyers include China’s smaller independent refiners and a few big private refiners, although it is unclear if the private players still continue to take Iranian volumes.
Iranian medium, sour Iran Light, with an API of 33° and sulfur content of 1.6%, is similar in quality to Russia’s medium, sour Urals, with a typical API of 31.8° and sulfur content of 1.4%. But Russia’s East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (Espo) crude is superior in quality to both, with a higher API gravity of 35.6° and significantly lower sulfur content of 0.5%.
February-arrival Iran Light sold at discounts of around $10 per barrel to the ICE Brent benchmark price on a China-delivered basis, while Iran Heavy arriving the same month sold at discounts of $11.50/bbl to ICE Brent, said two Chinese market sources.
Typically, after accounting for the difference in quality, Iran Light is cheaper and better value than Russian grades for Chinese refiners, which generally prefer to buy Iranian crude. But now, Iranian volumes actually “have competition from Russian grades,” said a Mideast producer source.
Right now, both Urals and Espo are very competitive with, if not better value than, Iranian crude, said two Chinese refiner sources and another market source. Chinese independents are already said to be taking more Russian barrels these days, with some shifting purchases away from Iranian crude.
China’s Urals imports rose significantly over the four-month period from October 2025 to January 2026 compared to earlier in 2025, according to Vortexa.
In the event of no export disruption going forward — and if Chinese refiners continue to prioritize Russian volumes — market sources suggest Iranian delivered prices into China will have to drop to compete and clear the high inventory of volumes on the water.