Photograph by Nathaniel St. Clair
In one year, Donald Trump has managed to disarm Congress and put our Constitution on life support. The separation of powers has been breached, and our checks and balances have been compromised. Trump’s latest victims are diplomacy and disarmament, a tragedy that few Americans understand. Last week’s tragic demise of the New START Treaty is the latest marker in the decline of the United States.
I’m writing this disarmament obituary from my own experiences earning a PhD in diplomatic history at Indiana University, analyzing Soviet policy at the Central Intelligence Agency for 25 years, and serving on the U.S. delegation as an intelligence advisor at the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks in Vienna, Austria in 1972, when the SALT Treaty and the ABM Treaty were finally completed. This is a tragedy for the national security interests of the United States as well as the entire global community.
The expiration of the New START Treaty will create a dangerous and costly international environment that could lead such non-nuclear states as Japan, South Korea, Turkey, and Poland to seek their own nuclear weapons. The fact that we only have nine nuclear powers is a testament to the success of the Non-Proliferation Treaty that was negotiated in 1968 and 1969 due to Soviet fears of Germany gaining access to nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons have returned to the international chessboard with a vengeance as the three greatest nuclear weapons states—the United States, Russia, and China—are devoting vast resources to strengthening and modernizing their nuclear inventories. This nuclear race is taking place despite the vast overkill capabilities that each of them posses.
It’s important to remember that when New START gained ratification in 2010, it was done with a legitimately bipartisan vote of 71 to 21. Today, a similar ratification process would receive virtually no positive votes from the Republicans and possibly several negative votes from the Democrats. It is ironic that one of the strongest congressional voices for arms control and disarmament, Lee Hamilton from Indiana, died on the same day as the expiry of New START.
With the exception of George W. Bush and Donald Trump, who followed the advice of John Bolton and excelled at abrogating arms control agreements, every president over the past 80 years has recognized the value of reducing armaments, particularly nuclear arms. President John F. Kennedy was courageous in taking on the Pentagon and the Department of Defense in pursuing the Partial Test Ban Treaty; President Richard Nixon pursued SALT and the ABM Treaty; even Ronald Reagan came around to appreciate the value of arms control and promoted the INF Treaty that destroyed an entire class of missile systems. Barack Obama did his thesis at Columbia University on arms control, and considered New START one of his greatest accomplishments.
In view of the difficulty and complexity of disarmament negotiations generally, I cannot imagine the Trump administration being capable of dealing with arms control challenges. We already know from Trump’s handling of our European allies and NATO generally that the diplomacy of international negotiations is beyond his capabilities. The fact that sensitive matters dealing with Russia and Ukraine as well as with Israel and Palestine are being mishandled in the hands of two real estate billionaires—Steve Wytkoff and Jared Kushner—is dispositive. The failures of Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio have neutralized the important roles of the Department of State and the National Security Council in dealing with sensitive international issues.
Of course, if you believe that such diplomatic gimmicks as the Board of Peace for Gaza will produce stability, then you will have a different point of view. These are truly tragic times.