Trump-Xi summit preparations falter as planning gaps unsettle Beijing
Analysts warn thin US coordination and rushed timelines risk weak deliverables and surprises ahead of high-stakes Beijing meeting
Less than six weeks ahead of a likely summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, preparations are inadequate, bilateral contacts anaemic and outcomes diminished, according to analysts and former government officials familiar with planning.
The shortfall reflected in part Trump’s reluctance to delegate, disdain for process and focus on quick wins, banking instead on personal magnetism and his “gut” as summit organising principles, they said.
The planning deficit also speaks to differences in US and Chinese political culture, with Beijing inclined towards heavily staged events free of missteps, especially involving its president, and Washington more tolerant of spontaneity, particularly under Trump.
“You have a handful of people who have never done this before, putting together what may be the most consequential trip in the president’s administration on a wing and a prayer,” said a former US official close to planning details. “The Chinese are beyond worried. They’re apoplectic.”
“They see this as an opportunity, and the US doesn’t.”
A call between Trump and Xi earlier this month eased fears that the summit might not happen, but that has still left months of work compressed into weeks.
“One call alone will not substitute for the typical process of preparation for a trip of this potential historic magnitude,” said Ryan Hass, a former National Security Council director and veteran of several summits.
“The less preparation that is undertaken in advance of Trump’s arrival in Beijing, the greater the potential for surprise and disappointment.”
Most countries plan exhaustively for presidential summits with their honour guards, state dinners and deliverables.
But Beijing has raised this to a fine art, according to analysts, with excruciating attention to detail, from the number of steps Xi takes to reach the restroom to his exact spot for superior photo angles.
Typically, foreign leaders are instructed to approach Xi from his right side as he faces the camera so their arm reaches around towards him, according to veterans, magnifying his image on Chinese state media as a leader in control, relaxed, high-minded and appreciated globally.
“They have to make sure it goes exactly as planned, make sure your counterpart is as grateful as possible and that he pays respect to Chinese leaders,” said Jeremy Chan, who was formerly posted in the US embassy in Shenyang. “It’s deeply embedded.”
Carefully conceived plans, however, are not Trump’s strong suit.
“China wants a many-months process,” said Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group. “That’s not how the Trump administration does things on anything.”
Adding to Beijing’s frustration are limited US diplomatic channels for Chinese officials to engage with, given how few in Trump’s orbit are empowered to make decisions – largely limited to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, billionaire Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, who are also juggling Ukraine, Gaza, Iran, Venezuela and Cuba.
“March is the only window. If the Chinese need to scramble, they can and they will, for a presidential visit,” said Yun Sun, China director at the Stimson Centre. “But of course it’s not preferred.”
Fuelling China’s frustration is a US bureaucracy whose priorities, tone and structure have been radically reshaped by a president dismissive of norms and traditions.
Normally, the State, Commerce, Treasury, Agriculture and Transportation departments would identify sector-specific deliverables coordinated by the National Security Council.
But the NSC has been denuded under Trump, its staff slashed and apprehensive, and its leadership distracted, with Marco Rubio leading both the NSC and the State Department.
“If you’re one of the Chinese bureaucrats whose job it is to make sure it goes off without a snag, you’re probably already losing sleep,” Chan said. “Trump is your worst nightmare.”
Adding to the log-jam, China-related decisions run largely through Bessent after Trump said last July that the former hedge fund executive had the “final say” on all trade matters.
But Trump has also tapped Bessent to work on central bank appointments, tariff fights, US inflation and a high-stakes “affordability” campaign ahead of the 2026 midterm election.
“For a summit that would have lots of different components to it, it’s probably more than the Treasury Department is typically used to managing,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
Driving much of this is a president who ploughs through protocol, goes off script and enters summits unencumbered by briefing notes or teleprompters, confident that his personal magnetism will craft breakthrough deals.
“This is the worst I’ve ever seen,” said the former official, a veteran of several summits.
“We’d be having, by this time, probably two meetings a week led by the NSC, with every agency showing up saying, ‘What’s our strategy for deliverables?’ But it’s not even happening.”
“They can’t talk to anybody who can talk to anybody,” he added. “And if you can’t talk to Bessent, what will you do?”
While China is helped by the Beijing location and its well-oiled diplomatic machinery, last-minute arrangements can result in poor-quality deliverables and limited progress advancing bilateral ties, analysts said.
“No grand bargain is in the offing,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “This summit will be more about atmospherics and pomp and circumstance.”
Analysts said not to expect progress on trade barriers, transshipment evasion or Chinese overcapacity, for instance, given Trump’s limited interest in results that may pay off over time.
Companies counter that the manufacturing renaissance Trump seeks requires that these and other deep-seated differences be addressed.
“The US business community hopes President Trump’s China trip will bring predictability and stability to the relationship and help address the long-standing licensing, market access and non-tariff barriers that have hurt US exports and American business for years,” said Sean Stein, president of the US-China Business Council.
“How can companies invest when unpredictable policies force them into wait-and-see mode?”
It was confident that Xi had bested Trump by leveraging China’s grip on strategic rare earths, he said, and that a year-long trade truce and rough plans for the April summit – alongside three other potential Xi-Trump meetings this year – could help temper US-China instability.
“The attention since has been to think about what’s possible within a deal and how to structure the visit that in a way strokes Trump’s ego but doesn’t sacrifice significant Chinese interests,” Kennedy said.
“The hard part will be coming up with genuine deliverables.”
These are seen as allowing Trump to claim big wins for blue-collar workers and farmers, even as China looks to chip away at US export controls in its bid to dominate the 21st century technology race.
“Xi’s doing classical music and Trump’s doing free jazz,” Chan said. “He wants to be the improviser-in-chief.”
“Xi in every speech says China’s determination to be self-sufficient in tech is job one,” said Kurt Campbell, former deputy secretary of state under Joe Biden. He added that elements of Trump’s approach were misguided.
“We’re dealing with a China that is competitive, seeking in many ways to usurp American power and be dominant in the 21st century.”
Another potential deliverable touches on Beijing’s desire for more Chinese investment in the US, according to analysts. By some measures, annual new investment has plummeted from a peak of US$46 billion in 2016 to less than US$1 billion in recent years.
“To get to a nuanced solution, you need the cooperation of multiple parties inside the US government,” Kennedy said.
“But as criticism grows and the administration begins to suffer some defeats, whether at home or abroad, it may make it harder for the White House to force others to go along.”
That could push Beijing, emboldened by its rare earths leverage, to press Trump into making seemingly inconsequential statements about the self-governing island at odds with traditional US policy, analysts said.
“China could feel emboldened and overestimate its leverage,” Glaser said. “[Trump] already hints that he wants peace and that could slide into ‘peaceful unification’ wording. That’s definitely on Xi Jinping’s agenda.”
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed by law to supplying it with weapons.
Other potential downsides of inadequate summit preparation include lost opportunities, confusion and divergent expectations, especially when results are not written down, according to analysts.
Trump, for example, may expect to negotiate with Xi directly for breakthroughs, while Beijing considers any agenda and outcome fixed well before Trump arrives in China.
“Xi does not typically dirty himself with negotiating with foreign counterparts,” said Hass, China director at the Brookings Institution. “He views his role as to affirm and ratify.”