[Salon] More gas from Russia? China flags new pipeline links amid Iran energy crisis

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More gas from Russia? China flags new pipeline links amid Iran energy crisis

‘Preparatory work’ on pipeline, believed to be the Power of Siberia 2, included in five-year plan – but analysts say more details are needed

SCMP

Kandy Wong

9 Mar 2026

China has included two pipelines transporting natural gas from Russia in the draft of its new five-year plan, raising market debate on whether the Power of Siberia 2 – a closely watched project viewed as symbolic of bilateral relations – could be on the fast track for construction.

Along with language on two other pipelines, the draft said China would “advance preparatory work for the central route of the China-Russia natural gas pipeline” in the next five years, which some market observers interpreted as referencing the Power of Siberia 2, which would also pass through Mongolia.

However, some analysts said a completion date remained distant in the absence of public agreement between Beijing and Moscow on certain details.

The draft version of the country’s development blueprint for 2026 to 2030, released last week during the annual session of China’s top legislature, did not elaborate further.

Aleksei Chigadaev, an associate fellow at New Eurasian Strategies Centre, said several issues needed resolving before work on the whole pipeline could kick off, including the exact stakes of Russia’s Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the two state-owned energy giants spearheading the project.

Also, questions remained over who would pay for the construction and what price would be agreed for the gas sent through the pipeline, he added.

“It is a very long, capital-intensive project that will take many years to complete,” Chigadaev said.

The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which would span 2,600km (1,615 miles) and was previously valued at US$13.6 billion, has been put on hold multiple times since discussions began in 2006.

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The pipeline has a projected annual capacity of 50 billion cubic metres (1.7 trillion cubic feet), providing a boost to China’s energy security following the US capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and the Iran war.

Mongolia’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Gongor Damdinnyam met representatives of CNPC during his visit to China in January, and both parties pledged to “intensify cooperation” on a Russian gas pipeline transiting Mongolia, though the project was not named directly.

That development followed a legally binding memorandum signed by leaders of the three countries in September after trilateral talks in Beijing. The agreement covered the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China and the Soyuz Vostok transit gas pipeline through Mongolia.

Munkhnaran Bayarlkhagva, a former official at the National Security Council of Mongolia, said that negotiations among the three countries about the Mongolian section of the pipeline would not happen in isolation from the rest of the work on the Power of Siberia 2.

It can thus be assumed that “Gazprom has finally given up on ‘monopolising’ the Mongolia section of the pipeline,” he explained, meaning China and Russia might share costs as well as benefits. This could mean including Chinese entities in construction, engineering companies and financing.

“What we do not know is the price,” Bayarlkhagva said.

“But if indeed the Chinese side is prepping to get involved in the groundwork, then it is safe to assume that ‘ice has cracked’, and there is movement and momentum in the direction of a final agreement.”

Kandy Wong

Kandy Wong returned to the Post in 2022 as a correspondent for the Political Economy desk, having earlier worked as a reporter on the Business desk. She focuses on China's trade