Republican senators warn Trump: Economy can lose
The oil crisis triggered by the ongoing war with Iran and the Supreme Court's decision restricting tariff authority revealed that the Republican Party faced serious economic vulnerability in the process leading up to the November elections. More than one Republican name, especially Senator Rand Paul, publicly stated that autumn will bring a "disaster" if oil prices do not fall and the voter continues to perceive the economy negatively.
Concerns about the November midterm elections within the Republican Party in the USA are now going from a whisper to a loud voice.
The ongoing military conflict with Iran has squeezed global oil supply and the Supreme Court's decision to break President Trump's tariff authority both shook the party's economic narrative and reprinted the 2026 election accounts.
Multiple Republican senators acknowledged that voters' negative attitude towards the economy was a long-standing threat, but war brought that threat to a critical threshold.
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul said this week that if oil prices do not decline and voters' view of the economy do not change, November could become a disaster scenario for Republicans.
“As we approach the elections, if oil is at the level of $100 in September or October, I think we will see a mass wave of fear and panic on the Republican side,” Paul said.
Inflation accumulation: Prices do not fall, the burden is growing
Paul hinted that President Trump is also starting to notice the severity of the situation.
The senator said, "Inflation does not disappear. During the four years during the Biden era, prices rose about 20 percent. These prices do not return; moreover, they are now being added to the top, albeit at a lower rate. If your salary has not increased by 25 percent in the last five years, you are in a worse situation than five years ago," he said.
Paul said, “I think the president is starting to realize this. In this process, the picture improves as the discourse of 'unconditional surrender' and 'we will choose the next ayatolla' decreases, and more realism comes into play," he said.
He added that the sooner the end of the war will be in terms of both the Republican Party and the general political conjuncture.
Senators: Our colleagues have been nervous for months
A Republican senator, who demanded that his name be kept secret, said that concerns within the party about the voters' negative view of the economy have been expressed for months, creating a serious fear that the war could further deepen this concern.
"The spread of war to such a wide geography and such comprehensive war goals caught our colleagues unprepared; now we are trying to understand where it will evolve," the senator said.
It was learned that his colleague also considered Republican voter participation in last week's Texas primary elections to be the most current indicator of the political difficulty the party is in.
“Democrats are very, very motivated; they go to the polls with high participation. Republican voters are much less enthusiastic; there is a lot of work to be done," the senator drew attention to the motivation gap in front of the party.
Survey data: Approval rate in inflation is melting
According to the findings of Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies' survey of 1,000 registered voters on behalf of NBC News in late February to early March, 62 percent of respondents do not approve of Trump's position on inflation and the cost of living. This rate is 7 points above the 55 percent level a year ago.
Facing a fierce re-election race in the constituency, Maine Senator Susan Collins has openly expressed discomfort with the rising fuel prices of voters in her state.
Colins said, “They are clearly not satisfied. Many Maine residents living in the countryside have to travel long distances to get to work. Our province has a very rural structure," he said.
Collins also expressed limited hope that the economic repercussions of the war could force the Iranian regime to withdraw its attacks on US allies in the region.
The Senator said, "If this continues like this, the Iranians themselves will also suffer; because their own oil will not be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz."
The ongoing war with Iran has actually frozen oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz, which includes ships that are vulnerable to Iran's missile and unmanned aerial vehicle attacks.
Approximately 20 percent of the world's oil supply passes through this bottleneck. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped to $116 on Monday to historic levels; on Wednesday it fell to $90.
The closing price of West Texas crude oil was $67 before the US and Israel launched a sweeping missile and bombing operation against Iran on February 28.
Farmers were caught between two fires
Republican senators representing rural areas stressed that high fuel costs combined with commodity prices suppressed by trade tensions with China and other major foreign markets, have double-pinched farmers.
Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley said he received phones from farmers who lost money due to rising fuel prices.
Grassley said, "There are dollar losses in Egypt and two dollars in soy; this is just bad news that comes up to them."
He proposed the emission from the Strategic Oil Reserve and allowing the year-round sale of the E15, a corn-derived ethanol mixture fuel, as measures that could contribute to the reduction of prices. On Wednesday afternoon, the Ministry of Energy announced that 172 million barrels of oil will be released from the strategic reserve.
Kansas Senator Jerry Moran noted that this week, based on the information he received from the Kansas Farmers' Union, agricultural sector was facing “the most severe and critical financial conditions in memory in recent years.”
Moran said, “There are high input costs; these include the cost of fuel and natural gas, which is a fertilizer component. And commodity prices that cannot afford these costs," he said.
Stating that farmers "have felt a great pressure to quickly reach trade agreements that will remove the tariff and non-tariff barriers imposed on the agricultural sector in many countries," Moran added, "They want to get results on this issue as soon as possible."
Supreme Court decision: Negotiation power is weakening
On the global trade front, the Supreme Court's recent decision added a new layer of uncertainty.
The court ruled that Trump does not have the authority to apply global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
This decision raised serious question marks on the leverage at his disposal when discussing more favorable agreements with Trump's major trading partners.
Moran acknowledged that it is difficult to predict who will take over the control of the Senate and House of Representatives in the fall; however, he stressed that the overall course of the economy will continue to be decisive.
“It's hard to say exactly where this will fall; but the overall economy, the costs of the business world and the difficulties in the agricultural sector are not good signs for Republicans,” the senator said.