MacroscopeTrump’s war is uniting the world, just not how he might have expected
The war on Iran could prompt middle powers to go beyond forming coalitions independent of the US and align more openly with China
The headline splashed across the front page of the Financial Times on March 17 – “Allies reject Trump’s call for warships” (to force open the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has partially closed after US and Israeli attacks) – said it all. His bluff had been called, so to speak.
The US leader might have been wise to read Dale Carnegie’s bestselling book, How to Win Friends and Influence People, which was published in 1936 and has since sold over 30 million copies. It advises on how to become an effective leader without resorting to manipulation or coercion.
China and Japan are critical in this regard. US relations with both have been thrown into question by the war and Trump’s call to Beijing and Tokyo – together with Western European powers – to help in cleaning up the energy-supply mess created by his actions and those of his comrade in arms, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Takaichi made it clear, even before her visit, that Japan is reluctant to send naval ships to the Strait of Hormuz to escort oil tankers. However, her administration had also rejected a US intelligence community report that suggested her recent remarks on potential military intervention in Taiwan represented a “significant shift” in Japanese policy.
Her stance before and during the meeting with Trump will not have pleased the US, though it may find approval among Japan’s more conservative political groups. While her straightforwardness isn’t likely to please Beijing either, Chinese leaders can now perceive a fissure in the Japan-US alliance that could widen into scope for greater cooperation within East Asia.
It is probably too late for Trump to repent and try to walk away from the Middle East conflict. Too much damage – physical and psychological – has been done to easily re-establish the status quo that existed before the war. Moreover, the impact on the global economy and financial markets has only just begun to be felt.
Ominous in this regard was the warning by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), reported in the Financial Times, that the Middle East conflict threatens to “cause a further surge in interest rates and a sell-off in financial markets that could magnify the wider damage to the global economy”.
Particularly worrying was the reported statement by the head of BIS’ economics and monetary department Hyun Song Shin, who said: “A spike in interest rates could put pressure on rich asset price valuations.” Hyun also said that, “Rising financing costs for governments and the need to issue more debt could undermine fiscal sustainability given already strained public finances in many countries.” Of course, the US is foremost among such nations.
“This is a war that should not have happened – it is a war that does no one any good,” Wang told the media, adding that, “Force provides no solution and armed conflict will only increase hatred and breed new crises.”
China may not be universally trusted. However, other nations such as Canada – whose prime minister has essentially made a plea for so-called “middle powers” to bypass the interests of great powers and form new mutual alliances – may well be inclined to take Wang’s remarks to heart in deciding who their future partners should be.