Nearly one month into US President Donald Trump’s war on Iran, there’s one person whose silence stands out: Xi Jinping.
In contrast to most other Group of 20 leaders, China’s commander-in-chief hasn’t commented on the conflict, keeping quiet as panic elsewhere sets in. South Korea has set up an emergency economic task force, the Philippines warned about grounding planes and Japan is beginning its largest oil release from emergency stockpiles to date.
In Beijing, it’s largely business as normal.
That’s because while the US doubles down on fossil fuels, drilling more crude than ever last year and moving to shut down offshore windfarms, Xi’s been ramping up renewables. Around half of new car sales are now electric in the world’s No. 2 economy, keeping down pressure from pump prices. And China still has coal in its back pocket.
In the short term, the war is working out well for Xi: US sanctions China has long railed against as “hegemonic” are coming off Russian and even Iranian oil, American military power has been humbled by drones and US allies have snubbed Trump’s call for help.
Look further out, and things get trickier.
Rising oil prices will hurt the factories underpinning China’s lopsided economy. Chinese firms have a trail of investment snaking across the Middle East that Beijing doesn’t want to see blown up, literally.
With rumblings of US-Iran talks in Pakistan, Chinese diplomats are hitting the phones, telling Iran to “seize every opportunity for peace” — showing they’re keen for an end to the volatility.
For now, though, Xi is sitting pretty. And with his calendar clear of a Trump summit next month, he’s got time to play with.
As the Chinese proverb says: Never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake. — Jenni Marsh