The Iranian government dismissed the president’s 15-point plan:
Iran’s information council, which is part of the government’s communication apparatus, said that a U.S. plan to end the war amounted to a wishlist of objectives that hadn’t been achieved militarily. “Trump’s statements are false and should not be taken seriously,” it added, according to Iranian state media.
If the reported details are correct, the so-called plan includes many of the same unrealistic and maximalist demands that the administration has been making for the last year. It was based on the U.S. proposal from 2025 before the June war. It is hard to see why Iran would agree to such terms now when their government has more leverage than it had before.
Strange as it may seem, the Iranian government is negotiating from a stronger position because of the war and the ensuing economic shock. If there is ever an agreement between the U.S. and Iran in the future, it will likely be on more favorable terms for Iran than if the war had never happened. It is bad enough to start a war for no reason, but to start it and then come away with a worse bargaining position is remarkably stupid.
The Iranian government has adamantly refused to negotiate on its missile program because they consider it essential to defending their country. It makes no sense for them to discuss accepting restrictions on that program after their country was attacked. Their missiles have been a major part of their defense against U.S.-Israeli aggression, so we would have to assume that they will guard that program even more jealously than before. If Iran wasn’t willing to give up domestic enrichment earlier, it will have more incentives to keep it after the war. As unreasonable and extreme as U.S. demands seemed last month, they will seem even more outrageous to the Iranians now.
The president has a habit of asserting that the U.S. and Iran are close to a deal or that Iran desperately wants a deal. Neither claim is ever true. He says these things to create the illusion that he prefers a diplomatic solution, but the Iranians know all too well that he doesn’t. Twice before they have attempted to negotiate with the treacherous president who reneged on the original nuclear deal, and both times the negotiations have been smokescreens for U.S. and Israeli military action. Iranian leaders would have to be exceedingly foolish to think that the latest U.S. offer is anything other than a trick.
The president would be well-advised to quit while he is behind. Escalating the war will increase the costs for everyone to no one’s benefit. Quitting will be an admission of defeat, but it is far better to stop a senseless war early than to prolong it in the vain hope that it will deliver great results. The only thing that prolonging this war of aggression will achieve is killing more Iranians, Americans, and Israelis while putting the lives of tens of millions more at risk from hunger.
The U.S. keeps trying to force Iran to give up things that their government has said are not up for discussion. As far as the Iranian government is concerned, these issues touch on core interests, Iran’s sovereignty, and their ability to defend themselves. The war has confirmed Iranian hardliners in their thinking about all of these issues, and the war has also elevated even more hardline leaders to top positions in their system. If Trump thought that he was going to squeeze more concessions from Iran by attacking them, he was completely wrong.