President Trump backed off of an ultimatum he made over the weekend to bomb Iranian civilian infrastructure—a war crime—if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic. Iran has contradicted Trump's subsequent claim that the two nations are in talks. Meanwhile, thousands of U.S. Marines are en route to the Gulf.- Trump's swerve demonstrates that Iran will not easily buckle under coercive threats. In fact, Iran may be willing to continue inflicting damage on the global energy market, U.S. bases, and U.S. allies throughout the region until they get sanctions relief, even if the United States and Israel stop bombing them.
- The failure to twist Tehran's arm demonstrates the basic limitations of using force when military means are disconnected from political ends. Degrading Iran's military with airstrikes has predictably hardened its resistance, especially since Trump has mused about regime change. This has made it all the more imperative for Iran to retain the ability to defend itself with missiles, if not nuclear weapons, and not bargain them away.
- The U.S. has stirred Iranian nationalism and decapitated a regime that had been willing to strike a new nuclear deal despite the U.S. pulling out of the last one, replacing it with even more hardline forces. This makes it unlikely the United States will get a better deal with Tehran than when the two sides were negotiating a month ago.
- If Trump does decide to use ground troops–whether to destroy nuclear sites, seize Kharg Island, or occupy Iran's coastline–it is likely to expose U.S. forces to a high risk of casualties without achieving meaningful or sustainable objectives, creating the conditions for further mission creep and maybe a full-scale ground war.
- Not only is Iran's current leadership apparently willing to continue the war, but Israel may also disrupt U.S. attempts to end the conflict as it becomes clear that Tel Aviv's war goals and immediate interests are diverging from Washington's. Ending the war will thus require the White House to confront Israel with consequences if it defies the U.S.
For an analysis of how we got here, read a DEFP explainer: Why Iran talks should deal only with nuclear issues |
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| DEFP Middle East Program Director Rosemary Kelanic discusses the Iran war's effects on the global oil market with Forbes. |
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