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(3/26/26.) X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 12:18:29 -0000 --00000000000031ee5b064e28bbc3 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260326-torture-genocide-and-erasure/ * *3/26/26* *Torture, genocide and erasure* [image: Israeli settlers seize 13 apartments belonging to Palestinians in the Silwan neighborhood of East Jerusalem on March 25, 2026. [Mostafa Alkharouf - Anadolu Agency]] Raniba /wadu *=E2=80=9CThis is not incidental violence. It is the architecture of settler-colonialism, built on a foundation of dehumanisation and maintained by a policy of cruelty and collective terror.=E2=80=9D The concluding sente= nce to the summary of UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese=E2=80=99s report to the UN Human Rights Council on torture and genocide succinctly sums up how Israel has been using torture as part of its gradual annihilation of the Palestinian people. Since October 2023, torture has become a weapon in Israel=E2=80=99s genocide.* *Albanese notes that while torture is a crime under international law, the Genocide Convention describes torture as an underlying act of genocide =E2=80=9Cwhen inflicted with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a protected group =E2=80=9Cas such=E2=80=9D. Genocide, Albanese explains from= the legal framework of the Genocide Convention, =E2=80=9Cmany be committed through su= stained practices that break bodies, minds and collective resilience.=E2=80=9D* *READ: Israeli army demolishes Palestinian park, car showroom in occupied West Bank * *The historical realities of torture since the British Mandate contextualises the current torture practices Israel inflicts on Palestinians today. British torture practices were incorporated by Israel after 1948. In 1987, the Landau Commission effectively ruled in favour of torture =E2=80=9Con a person suspected of involvement in terrorist activiti= es.=E2=80=9D With impunity assigned a foundation, what happens when a settler-colonial entity which treats Palestinians as legitimate targets for annihilation, blatantly considers all Palestinians as terrorists? * *Torture becomes normalised, and because the international community has already subscribed to Israel=E2=80=99s security narrative, there is no oppo= sition to a practice that, as Albanese illustrated, also constitutes an underlying act of genocide. * *It is not Israel=E2=80=99s torture of Palestinian detainees since October = 2023 that catches attention when reading the report, but the analysis of how Israel uses genocide as a means of torture. Albanese=E2=80=99s report illus= trates how mass displacement, the destruction of Gaza=E2=80=99s infrastructure and cultural sites, the erasure of collective memory through such destruction, the destruction of the healthcare system, starvation, permanent disabilities, as well as Israeli weaponry used against Palestinians in Gaza all constitute forms of torture. The same applies to the occupied West Bank, where sophisticated surveillance and military incursions, the destruction of refugee camps and agricultural land, all constitute forms of torture and genocidal violence.* *READ: Gaza death toll from Israeli war nears 72,300, Health Ministry says * *Having prioritised Israel=E2=80=99s security narrative over rights, both t= he Knesset and Israel=E2=80=99s judiciary have normalised torture. Albanese wr= ites, =E2=80=9CTorture has thus become a collective enterprise,=E2=80=9D showing = how the entire fabric of Israeli society renders itself a participant in torture practices through the settler-colonial narrative. =E2=80=9Cby targeting the totality = of the people, across the totality of the occupied land, through a totality of conduct, genocide has become the ultimate form of torture: continuous, generational and collective.=E2=80=9D* *Justice, Albanese stated, should =E2=80=9Cconfront torture not as an isola= ted crime, but as a foundational pillar of the genocidal project aimed at the complete erasure =E2=80=93 physical and psychological destruction, displace= ment and replacement =E2=80=93 of the Palestinian people.=E2=80=9D Torture as state = policy has ensured that no aspect of Palestinian life is immune. The report illustrates what statistical data omits =E2=80=93 the price Palestinians ar= e paying in their daily lives for the international community=E2=80=99s complicity w= ith colonialism and genocide. * *BLOG: The UN leaves UNRWA isolated, and Palestinians prone to genocide * *The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.* --00000000000031ee5b064e28bbc3 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://www.middleeastmonitor= .com/20260326-torture-genocide-and-erasure/

<= /div>
3/26/26

Torture, genocide and er= asure

3D"Israeli

Ra= niba /wadu

=E2=80=9CThis is not incidental violence. It is the architecture of= settler-colonialism, built on a foundation of dehumanisation and maintaine= d by a policy of cruelty and collective terror.=E2=80=9D The concluding sen= tence to the summary of UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese=E2=80=99s<= span>=C2=A0report=C2=A0to the UN Human Rights Council on tortur= e and genocide succinctly sums up how Israel has been using torture as part= of its gradual annihilation of the Palestinian people. Since October 2023,= torture has become a weapon in Israel=E2=80=99s genocide.

Albanese notes that= while torture is a crime under international law, the Genocide Convention = describes torture as an underlying act of genocide =E2=80=9Cwhen inflicted = with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a protected group =E2=80= =9Cas such=E2=80=9D. Genocide, Albanese explains from the legal framework o= f the Genocide Convention, =E2=80=9Cmany be committed through sustained pra= ctices that break bodies, minds and collective resilience.=E2=80=9D

READ:=C2=A0= Israeli army demolishes Pales= tinian park, car showroom in occupied West Bank

The historical realities of = torture since the British Mandate contextualises the current torture practi= ces Israel inflicts on Palestinians today. British torture practices were i= ncorporated by Israel after 1948. In 1987, the Landau Commission effectivel= y ruled in favour of torture =E2=80=9Con a person suspected of involvement = in terrorist activities.=E2=80=9D With impunity assigned a foundation, what= happens when a settler-colonial entity which treats Palestinians as legiti= mate targets for annihilation, blatantly considers all Palestinians as terr= orists?=C2=A0

Torture becomes = normalised, and because the international community has already subscribed = to Israel=E2=80=99s security narrative, there is no opposition to a practic= e that, as Albanese illustrated, also constitutes an underlying act of geno= cide.=C2=A0

It is not Israel=E2=80=99s torture of Palestinian detai= nees since October 2023 that catches attention when reading the report, but= the analysis of how Israel uses genocide as a means of torture. Albanese= =E2=80=99s report illustrates how mass displacement, the destruction of Gaz= a=E2=80=99s infrastructure and cultural sites, the erasure of collective me= mory through such destruction, the destruction of the healthcare system, st= arvation, permanent disabilities, as well as Israeli weaponry used against = Palestinians in Gaza all constitute forms of torture. The same applies to t= he occupied West Bank, where sophisticated surveillance and military incurs= ions, the destruction of refugee camps and agricultural land, all constitut= e forms of torture and genocidal violence.

READ:=C2=A0Gaza death toll from Israeli war nears 72,300, Health Ministry = says

Having prioritised Israel=E2=80=99s security narrative over rights, bot= h the Knesset and Israel=E2=80=99s judiciary have normalised torture. Alban= ese writes, =E2=80=9CTorture has thus become a collective enterprise,=E2=80= =9D showing how the entire fabric of Israeli society renders itself a parti= cipant in torture practices through the settler-colonial narrative. =E2=80= =9Cby targeting the totality of the people, across the totality of the occu= pied land, through a totality of conduct, genocide has become the ultimate = form of torture: continuous, generational and collective.=E2=80=9D

Justice, Al= banese stated, should =E2=80=9Cconfront torture not as an isolated crime, b= ut as a foundational pillar of the genocidal project aimed at the complete = erasure =E2=80=93 physical and psychological destruction, displacement and = replacement =E2=80=93 of the Palestinian people.=E2=80=9D Torture as state = policy has ensured that no aspect of Palestinian life is immune. The report= illustrates what statistical data omits =E2=80=93 the price Palestinians a= re paying in their daily lives for the international community=E2=80=99s co= mplicity with colonialism and genocide.=C2=A0

BLOG:=C2=A0The UN leaves UNRWA isolated, and Palestinians prone to genoc= ide

The views = expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily refle= ct the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

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Subscribe here for more [image: AQPclUG3P_IVbgRAhbHFvDkFJNdMtD_kaiMIY0Yb84NQpKJjyVuekWh8m6UgvnLTCB0fne360lp= Tkslfx5bYM7VvoFBrjDFKcl8LIzPTxw.mp4] Watch now Gulf States Draw Line on War with Iran Gulf governments resist integration while exploring alternative security architecture Global GeoPolitics Mar 29 READ IN APP Gulf states are declining participation in any military structure that places them alongside Israel or under a unified command that includes Israeli forces. Abdulaziz Sager, founder of the Gulf Research Center, attributes this position to both political constraints and strategic calculation across the region. Several governments maintain no formal relations with Israel and reject integration into joint military operations or command frameworks that would require alignment. (*Video clips credit: Rick Sanchez, RT)* Distinction between defensive posture and offensive operations against Iran remains central to this position. Regional governments assess that participation in strikes on Iranian territory would provide justification for direct retaliation, increasing exposure of Gulf infrastructure and population centers to counterattack. Preference remains focused on territorial defense rather than engagement in escalation pathways that broaden the conflict. Policy direction emphasizes stability over confrontation. Regional actors are advancing a security framework that includes all neighboring states, with the stated objective of reducing escalation risk and establishing longer-term balance. That approach contrasts with externally driven military alignments centered on deterrence through force projection. Questions are also emerging regarding the long-term role of United States military deployments across the Gulf. Abdulaziz Sager raises the issue of whether continued presence remains necessary if its primary function centers on protection of Israeli security interests rather than broader regional stability. That assessment introduces uncertainty over future basing arrangements and defense partnerships. Expanded roles for Russia and China are being considered within this shifting landscape. China maintains its position as the largest economic partner to Gulf states, with bilateral trade exceeding $300 billion, while Russia has strengthened diplomatic and security ties across the region. Both states are viewed as potential mediators capable of supporting de-escalation efforts and contributing to an alternative regional security architecture, should they choose to engage at that level. Authored By: Global GeoPolitics *Thank you for visiting. This is a reader-supported publication. If you believe journalism should serve the public, not the powerful, and you=E2=80= =99re in a position to help, becoming a PAID SUBSCRIBER truly makes a difference. Alternatively you can support by way of a cup of coffee:* https://buymeacoffee.com/ggtv | https://ko-fi.com/globalgeopolitics | Bitcoin: 3NiK8BoRZnkwJSHZSekuXKFizGPopkE7ns Invite your friends and earn rewards If you enjoy Global GeoPolitics, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe. Invite Friends --0000000000004280f3064e28da47 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
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3D"AQPclUG3P_IVbgRAhbHFvDkFJNdMtD_kaiMIY0Yb84NQpKJjyVuekW=

Gulf States Draw Line on War with Iran

Gulf governments resist inte= gration while exploring alternative security architecture

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3D""Watch now
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Mar 29
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Gulf = states are declining participation in any military structure that places th= em alongside Israel or under a unified command that includes Israeli forces= . Abdulaziz Sager, founder of the Gulf Research Center, attributes this pos= ition to both political constraints and strategic calculation across the re= gion. Several governments maintain no formal relations with Israel and reje= ct integration into joint military operations or command frameworks that wo= uld require alignment.

(Video clips credit:= Rick Sanchez, RT)

Distinction between defensive posture and offensive o= perations against Iran remains central to this position. Regional governmen= ts assess that participation in strikes on Iranian territory would provide = justification for direct retaliation, increasing exposure of Gulf infrastru= cture and population centers to counterattack. Preference remains focused o= n territorial defense rather than engagement in escalation pathways that br= oaden the conflict.

Policy direction emphasizes stability over confrontation.= Regional actors are advancing a security framework that includes all neigh= boring states, with the stated objective of reducing escalation risk and es= tablishing longer-term balance. That approach contrasts with externally dri= ven military alignments centered on deterrence through force projection.

Ques= tions are also emerging regarding the long-term role of United States milit= ary deployments across the Gulf. Abdulaziz Sager raises the issue of whethe= r continued presence remains necessary if its primary function centers on p= rotection of Israeli security interests rather than broader regional stabil= ity. That assessment introduces uncertainty over future basing arrangements= and defense partnerships.

Expanded roles for Russia and China are being cons= idered within this shifting landscape. China maintains its position as the = largest economic partner to Gulf states, with bilateral trade exceeding $30= 0 billion, while Russia has strengthened diplomatic and security ties acros= s the region. Both states are viewed as potential mediators capable of supp= orting de-escalation efforts and contributing to an alternative regional se= curity architecture, should they choose to engage at that level.

Authored By:= =C2=A0Global GeoPolitics

Thank yo= u for visiting. This is a reader-supported publication. If you believe jour= nalism should serve the public, not the powerful, and you=E2=80=99re in a p= osition to help, becoming a PAID SUBSCRIBER truly makes a difference. Alter= natively you can support by way of a cup of coffee:

https://buymeacoffee.com/ggtv= =C2=A0|

htt= ps://ko-fi.com/globalgeopolitics=C2=A0|

Bitcoin: 3NiK8BoRZnkwJSHZSekuXKFizGPopkE7n= s

<= /p>

Invite your fri= ends and earn rewards

If you enjoy Global GeoPolitics, share it with your friends= and earn rewards when they subscribe.

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--0000000000004280f3064e28da47-- From winslowwheeler@msn.com Sun Mar 29 05:40:39 2026 Return-Path: X-Original-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Delivered-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Received: from mlm0.listserve.net (mlm0.listserve.net [161.35.233.68]) by mlm2.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id E66C0B0851 for ; Sun, 29 Mar 2026 05:40:38 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 mlm2.listserve.net E66C0B0851 Authentication-Results: mlm2.listserve.net; dkim=pass (2048-bit key) header.d=msn.com header.i=@msn.com header.b="t7n0bSQe" Received: by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) id B7E09BD0A4; Sun, 29 Mar 2026 05:40:38 -0700 (PDT) Delivered-To: salon@listserve.com Received: from BN8PR05CU002.outbound.protection.outlook.com (mail-eastus2azolkn19011037.outbound.protection.outlook.com [52.103.12.37]) by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 9F146BD0A3 for ; Sun, 29 Mar 2026 05:40:38 -0700 (PDT) ARC-Seal: i=1; a=rsa-sha256; s=arcselector10001; d=microsoft.com; cv=none; b=Om3DZyeyxUzg8k9EkfWcGNSJOrfqGCyBUGf+k7cyA0llFeyZuWLTYI2bimAgVzvVa1DhFIA7SaplItczs9klxmJH/bnvffVcXsnT/rgv6HjSZ0O35G2B5vOVgWTTEIK2KcbESlc2V5xUjvtwcwGlUrxqOshx5RzUXnDXoDG2/FwJYSOO5J+llvwfQvkKXGvk92VgE3dDOZnL0aMOb6afHrSHfqKc5PBXPNBxgr2XuQfgI015RtRlYowgIzgET+ygTIRvTKlDkf8fl3PcNuvZOMkhzIqK3CUkif78QFvQwvXzW8OQ1IKsNlOemKpSE8IzCPJQYuOmhlTu+EtIZDm1/A== ARC-Message-Signature: i=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=microsoft.com; s=arcselector10001; h=From:Date:Subject:Message-ID:Content-Type:MIME-Version:X-MS-Exchange-AntiSpam-MessageData-ChunkCount:X-MS-Exchange-AntiSpam-MessageData-0:X-MS-Exchange-AntiSpam-MessageData-1; bh=fvU06uH/OB53iTmyNlTHsjCYPaufOEyDv6vpq2X5h18=; b=gcSZJDwqntoY7XOwCD4Xzs4lkxPILslm0ZoDDgNP/qrhu6EUk9OruQLo9t3Z6odGl5SbuuncX3v7O3UpvV3/ZK7gwFbM06fiUPhEaGzgYL7r5F1J7n9BHlqYnemtsAO65UR/OjsNeS6xMtC3GkCAQPwBMktHPeIZ1qib8kATtCrXP02DdnoM0JtncNxk4jjGJGjTi1pTD4lBF6Oa4B3MNa1Cbizaasvn70tOPfbPzw7jfCdac40PngKR2zIvtWEefgNZAQTzNRI+m+nBiGNgC5gGHNJFD0zfB0A9IgKySphv8OHsGYu9p7WoiAySwrO88YaLNXycZSL+xsHW/XYIcg== ARC-Authentication-Results: i=1; mx.microsoft.com 1; spf=none; dmarc=none; dkim=none; arc=none DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=msn.com; s=selector1; h=From:Date:Subject:Message-ID:Content-Type:MIME-Version:X-MS-Exchange-SenderADCheck; bh=fvU06uH/OB53iTmyNlTHsjCYPaufOEyDv6vpq2X5h18=; b=t7n0bSQe7Gn55TJg8ORfCRxh5Z6fGuiiTHqFryILkHfJ6zrWIfvFySxqT2seKXR/VOdUW0L+X7sHMSKelmQJRuPLvZDYR/VITBgWt8TW4+cJSiAZUFtkMKIA8NFYV6Ifpd4L6SkP5XMFu0l4zs0EQ7VaQZvU9HWmcwhfVxldyU3eulpz0f2kZC7jBcWDc0CW8stJTWvU04tnoGaj4MVjN6Gba3nA3cPBa8V3azf4uCzFFWS/PHx3B7KTo+D4QvR11I2pm1LHYpdFbNugh4m8VN0qGnWsFkiJjtpC8+xSdG1GZf6TIAoMs52Vqn6giURjlQpvLi9CZ00eEP+hkp28CA== Received: from MW2PR20MB2203.namprd20.prod.outlook.com (2603:10b6:907:d::32) by DM4PR20MB6409.namprd20.prod.outlook.com (2603:10b6:8:17e::10) with Microsoft SMTP Server (version=TLS1_2, cipher=TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_256_GCM_SHA384) id 15.20.9745.27; Sun, 29 Mar 2026 12:40:36 +0000 Received: from MW2PR20MB2203.namprd20.prod.outlook.com ([fe80::4481:83ca:a591:1d34]) by MW2PR20MB2203.namprd20.prod.outlook.com ([fe80::4481:83ca:a591:1d34%4]) with mapi id 15.20.9745.027; Sun, 29 Mar 2026 12:40:36 +0000 From: "Winslow T. Wheeler" To: "salon@listserve.com" , Chas Freeman Thread-Topic: [Salon] Inexperienced Hegseth Thread-Index: AQHcvw686jehG02WoEKjieorEEg8d7XFc4hA Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 12:40:36 +0000 Message-ID: References: <1334633007.1116920.1774741664318.ref@mail.yahoo.com> <1334633007.1116920.1774741664318@mail.yahoo.com> In-Reply-To: Accept-Language: en-US Content-Language: en-US X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: msip_labels: x-ms-exchange-messagesentrepresentingtype: 1 x-ms-publictraffictype: Email x-ms-traffictypediagnostic: MW2PR20MB2203:EE_|DM4PR20MB6409:EE_ x-ms-office365-filtering-correlation-id: d900e8db-ecd7-4c55-e453-08de8d906029 x-microsoft-antispam: BCL:0; ARA:14566002|13031999003|31061999003|461199028|12050799012|8060799015|19110799012|8062599012|9400799043|51005399006|15030799006|15080799012|56899033|1602099012|40105399003|440099028|3412199025|4302099013|10035399007|102099032|12091999003|311199032; x-microsoft-antispam-message-info: =?Windows-1252?Q?addYezUen5egb7feaHLd17o1EBEeXtQwjso8KGq1qlI1SsjOOp4xa7s/?= =?Windows-1252?Q?80P6uPN2jnQVSGrcA882Gyp7Tjz9hyJjfvkb6v1rT5y5Wc5C96WdFGVA?= =?Windows-1252?Q?O6/UQXnZoJXJhlHR1CzK4BI+bVZzumE9Da4PzJkoLzSIzZT+2thOXDOx?= =?Windows-1252?Q?R2wARDqnfdWttyTdhRRM/7dRJzdtJJqXNReV6yKAJ+GTzpkY0IKFR46c?= =?Windows-1252?Q?mhtJxZA6WoMkQ65EUjtfFckdijsHrn5vDnP/FcrNg4nYSAfS6qtTotal?= =?Windows-1252?Q?mH+uGbH0eUkce98XPFQyfWqOFguvBcd16jF+X2nWF5cwRWazMl4GH1lR?= =?Windows-1252?Q?9Zi1fJhOnI2CaJMkhuFer6I24lYIvY5VaU8fqATZ+eidUIfgigIo9ZXF?= =?Windows-1252?Q?ItcPlEUwzbRGMACLOqStuX51aDLGztlPiLP/o5Eh+2Lc9krWlubtFlAK?= =?Windows-1252?Q?6gZk3pixnZnCWNoQgOJbPujxg6rwXoe7JlWelnengNzKI2zyG/dFAZhR?= =?Windows-1252?Q?7+x7kbwlQBl2dBiVoOOtmxAyexYfv1kO2oo/LpOcXw2VrplMzzlelkHF?= =?Windows-1252?Q?+FC2DY90uaKM0/Q4thfRBekHwU1drqKgZDG6jn3bfbcNlnTl5XiCoL8z?= =?Windows-1252?Q?bECog53TaYBqsOM7wZ2IIa5smMHnf2j8GlnIEemVbtAkYP011X5sYJr/?= =?Windows-1252?Q?GhO2WSdRuw99nr6nWnnpg1DEXkafuuGabzIbtJpG8nI5jk/4jyjj0Y0A?= =?Windows-1252?Q?gJcfoSynTKeLbQYnJtrqhgY02zTP1fijDima7evP9dY7zwRY0HH7ueJB?= =?Windows-1252?Q?18yeaKKM9L9sXHaaIrHKn590FUNej1KforcvPpnR5uAdN1sfteZpuP1x?= =?Windows-1252?Q?1+H/nM8VqlzSnXOlmKdrAiRU8Y2G+G5nw1x9zlQ9DniP5hn8w1d/5nCF?= =?Windows-1252?Q?8rJwVOG59bYrR3Djf8qsE/SvyBa7FQ0Umynq4+BQiEgZLyFzCnh5D0u5?= =?Windows-1252?Q?G534Oa2NCuKAhFjO8H4BJ5xHKy+qLZ40Wz+X559rtu7SdzENkufbRPnL?= =?Windows-1252?Q?wLSxn+G8fSRg0+zEVxEiJQXG4c/3wSEiGRbeW+mR8uNXbRaBTefKuB4Q?= =?Windows-1252?Q?eo0QyfBiU8uthn+JjlTeu7MiRUS4if29FBECbxrHcsWsHfZWbUBN4i9C?= =?Windows-1252?Q?feeuVynEfLwl9v7x5vZncmEilHskV9nM?= x-ms-exchange-antispam-messagedata-chunkcount: 1 x-ms-exchange-antispam-messagedata-0: =?Windows-1252?Q?+60uXG8UqjDjbw3nddkkeBDvfVVeWkAa2Wbbm2XsLtp0qfoAghtDdQjc?= =?Windows-1252?Q?4eAUUjT0htvmV4ipoMrxwr22pCSI+faAK1bIO8ptIkyzR11f3VC6byKG?= =?Windows-1252?Q?uhVry+MktfzUseGI4rBRsjMCtpholj4+UExnTnjLdtJYackLVOwkoP/X?= =?Windows-1252?Q?fhpHPgQHHq1zLwBy7LD1XNrJAawT349kVrWKV3YQqX3Z0gfDMK1Zl6V4?= =?Windows-1252?Q?x0TDLJV/YjMLWoQeEY16Cx2fY24BbBLgriEffWY9EKsC/mH/MT7VML45?= =?Windows-1252?Q?srI/teAHcvpTZrBGmItfsMDxrjLM5vAE/zKoKCJQuCQIfamcpCpQgZx4?= =?Windows-1252?Q?yIuz/mXG0UyPQH8FDlfyJ+vc9tgEEp2gjDk0Mf7RV5Cn1IpA0oMsZiPe?= =?Windows-1252?Q?iGg8w1l1hsuFj/vwES/oaNDxHEwBnZsfTQom7jYt4FuodBfE4xZIdr7v?= =?Windows-1252?Q?ZYMUv2Bj9PeJA5OXsMRv66UaiVl1J3nqnc8jK0b5CoDZW1/eM8MumHxD?= =?Windows-1252?Q?BYKm8xzsxzuGl2ltZSbaebWMKgq6JRWbFgSxXM2HAXAzNdEtz/OrVJug?= =?Windows-1252?Q?sOptGpvCj4TVS3YGhRJdxzM+IsNbjCCOYuWcUj4tb7aZUA7XjDKGtj+1?= =?Windows-1252?Q?RtEjMPK7OFatHWbKH7P/64Pzckn0a9bbtEs3dUrWBWhPKDYL8tg4wGQO?= =?Windows-1252?Q?SnhQoZMUOv345z4lwC1WYzW3Vd/C8fiRGLDN9Rc9oGNOW0n1nyT6CsQL?= =?Windows-1252?Q?ImgjCqgPUm3zkG00TjunafXxix0C/jl4z0uL6rp2qQOnneJiKtnsej9S?= =?Windows-1252?Q?2dY4Z1F2otJWjyxav1fImaYnm/cIqCZw6/Vh/BAYoyUqTALKif9xUqkC?= =?Windows-1252?Q?weS+QupRqvot6mUWbTugKPr4PJNppaqFlpN+aJInxHg1PP11Qhigy2Ee?= =?Windows-1252?Q?13CA3t+XvsKI3RWp6vFiSxvVz8TKf25Aq43Vjyq92LxZCPC4MGHDC/Uf?= =?Windows-1252?Q?ycElZBTFI8p8hZLVgxpb8kCHSiSjkBWFS2Mk2N6QOFUR7hAz4pGzA9wa?= =?Windows-1252?Q?LnNcLmXkeP27vytEDu6JMffqkqZQoMLFWR0Tbkt4AK1Qu0LCNRWnSofq?= =?Windows-1252?Q?eHigcZF2Xk0e8saMS4C/K4zHp06NQh5VNaymk0Liajz2lrjFoC40LTEm?= =?Windows-1252?Q?5HBoYWA6yQaaH0SSfSLylBpBas4X+LlfjgJiqlnYXTnv1wQkUXPN/C1Z?= =?Windows-1252?Q?dXJEKVmgS8rdvxsB2Wu4hDAPHIFIvg/insVEoJFBIhVnZaDAtt68hzRV?= =?Windows-1252?Q?wSp4UtD3aG3j3KFmCuP+S/c1sLNOnBumG35qGffahpmygg0UuFjGCzCD?= =?Windows-1252?Q?jv6Vus6kCISl3ik70MUYiMkRHtgXYiw8Y51z9o0/bnAnsigZTUKJ1jxT?= =?Windows-1252?Q?B5fQq32ygp1jERPTVDePUOkYhtkREfN8Xw253+SXZbw=3D?= Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="_000_MW2PR20MB2203678129CD16742604A543D655AMW2PR20MB2203namp_" MIME-Version: 1.0 X-OriginatorOrg: sct-15-20-9412-4-msonline-outlook-6d936.templateTenant X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-AuthAs: Internal X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-AuthSource: MW2PR20MB2203.namprd20.prod.outlook.com X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-RMS-PersistedConsumerOrg: 00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000000 X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-Network-Message-Id: d900e8db-ecd7-4c55-e453-08de8d906029 X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-originalarrivaltime: 29 Mar 2026 12:40:36.1182 (UTC) X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-fromentityheader: Hosted X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-id: 84df9e7f-e9f6-40af-b435-aaaaaaaaaaaa X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-rms-persistedconsumerorg: 00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000000 X-MS-Exchange-Transport-CrossTenantHeadersStamped: DM4PR20MB6409 Subject: Re: [Salon] Inexperienced Hegseth X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 12:40:39 -0000 --_000_MW2PR20MB2203678129CD16742604A543D655AMW2PR20MB2203namp_ Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Note Trump's facial distaste. He probably resents Hegseth using his own (T= rump's) verbal tactics =97 even if less skillful. When the bombing stops, = I will not be surprised if Hegseth is the fall guy for the end result being= no better than Obama's deal. __________________________ Winslow T. Wheeler ________________________________ From: Salon on behalf of Chas Freeman via Sal= on Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2026 7:57 PM To: salon@listserve.com Subject: [Salon] Inexperienced Hegseth ttps://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/2037941834022900060 Absolute humiliation for Pete Hegseth. A retired Major General completely d= estroys the Secretary of Defense on live TV, calling his threat to "negotia= te with bombs" illogical bantering that exposes his total lack of experienc= e. The Pentagon is run by an amateur. --_000_MW2PR20MB2203678129CD16742604A543D655AMW2PR20MB2203namp_ Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Note Trump's facial distaste.  He probably resents Hegseth using his o= wn (Trump's) verbal tactics =97 even if less skillful.  When the bombi= ng stops, I will not be surprised if Hegseth is the fall guy for the end re= sult being no better than Obama's deal.

__________________________
Winslow T. Wheeler 
From: Salon <salon-bounc= es@listserve.com> on behalf of Chas Freeman via Salon <salon@listserv= e.com>
Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2026 7:57 PM
To: salon@listserve.com <salon@listserve.com>
Subject: [Salon] Inexperienced Hegseth
 
ttps://x= .com/FurkanGozukara/status/2037941834022900060
Absolute humiliation for Pete Hegseth. A retired Major General completely d= estroys the Secretary of Defense on live TV, calling his threat to "ne= gotiate with bombs" illogical bantering that exposes his total lack of= experience. The Pentagon is run by an amateur.
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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 06:14:28 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 09:14:12 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzDBpef5FkSeLb4RM1aBxuft548xTcCPV44Vo2kuimgYaSkLe9fhMsuOk8Y Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="00000000000097ea95064e29835e" Subject: [Salon] Essential US AWACS Plane Destroyed Amidst New Iranian Attacks, as US Continues Losing Critical Capability in Region X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 13:14:31 -0000 --00000000000097ea95064e29835e Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/essential-us-awacs-plane-destroyed?utm= _source=3Dpost-email-title&publication_id=3D1351274&post_id=3D192434063&utm= _campaign=3Demail-post-title&isFreemail=3Dfalse&r=3D210kv&triedRedirect=3Dt= rue&utm_medium=3Demail * *Essential US AWACS Plane Destroyed Amidst New Iranian Attacks, as US Continues Losing Critical Capability in Region* *Simplicius* *USS Tripoli has finally arrived in the CENTCOM region, which presumably means somewhere in the northern Arabian Sea. Given that the Lincoln was said to have scurried away to a 1,000km distance, we can only assume the Tripoli will keep a similar range away from Iranian missiles while Trump continues to bide his time with his weak-handed bluffs.* *In the meantime, US losses have mounted in the region. Today came the following announcements: * *Saudi Arabian Prince Sultan Airbase was hit with many US KC-135s damaged and destroyed: * *Pro-IRGC outlets have released satellite imagery showing heavy damage across the main tarmac at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, with large fires still burning in the aftermath of an IRGC missile strike.Three U.S. Air Force KC-135 tankers were reportedly destroyed, with additional aircraft severely damaged.* *But shocking new images have also now revealed that an E-3 AWACS plane worth nearly $300 million (1993 dollars, inflation adjusted to $600-700m today) was also completely destroyed:* *Pictures show the total loss of 81-0005, an E-3G =E2=80=9CSentry=E2=80=9D = Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) Aircraft with the U.S. Air Force=E2=80=99s 552n= d Air Control Wing based out of Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma, following yesterday=E2=80=99s Iranian ballistic missile and drone attack on Prince Su= ltan Airbase* *By the way, take a look at the accuracy of the hit=E2=80=94right on the ra= dome of the plane, which lies beside it: * *Before and after:* *New reports claim Russia has been providing Iran with precisely these satellite coordinates for the hits.* *Experts believe the AWACS were rushed there in order to make up the radar gap for the strategic-level radars like the AN/TPY-2s that had already been destroyed by Iran=E2=80=94but now even the AWACS are getting smoked, leavin= g the US increasingly blind.* *Remember the existential hubbub surrounding Russia=E2=80=99s A-50s being h= it?* *Aviation historian and anti-Iran-regimist Babak Tagvhaee remarks on the losses:* *The legend himself was not pleased:* *Funny how much the Special Combat Operation is starting to resemble the Special Military Operation.* *A dozen troops were also wounded in the attack, with two of them =E2=80=9Cseriously=E2=80=9D according to NYT.* *https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/us/politics/strike-us-air-base-injuries= .html* *Unsourced reports on social media claim one has died, but this has not been verified. * *Even NYT admits this was one of the most serious breaches of US air defense in the war: * *The combined missile and drone attack amounted to one of the most serious breaches of American air defenses in the course of the monthlong war with Iran.* *Let us again be clear about Trump=E2=80=99s current plan: * *The plan is to continue bombing Iran to maintain psychological pressure while building up troops in the region as a further pressure lever in the hopes that Iran=E2=80=99s leadership will grow frightened and finally agree= to negotiate and compromise. There are no real remaining military objectives left because all the original ones were proven to be impossible to actually implement=E2=80=94i.e. regime change, Iran=E2=80=99s surrender, collapse of= the IRGC or wider military structure, societal upheaval, etc. * *Now the only operative plan remains to get Iran to negotiate a ceasefire that can look at least mildly favorable to Trump=E2=80=99s optics. The prob= lem is, thus far Iran has continued to maintain absolutely maximalist demands, such as the total removal of all US bases from the region, as well as guarantees of never striking Iran again.* *Disregarding the completely unrealistic=E2=80=94and to be frank, childish= =E2=80=94ideas about ground troop invasion of Iranian land, we can therefore conclude that Trump=E2=80=99s one final remaining emergency lever will be to massively bo= mb Iran=E2=80=99s energy infrastructure, a kind of desperate last-ditch hail m= ary out of spite, the fit of a sadistic sore loser. * *But even this is obviously fraught with great risk because:* 1. *It will not accomplish anything, due to Iran=E2=80=99s grid decentraliz= ation* 2. *It will cause an even bigger headache for the US when Iran responds in kind and lights up the entire region=E2=80=99s critical infrastructure t= o an even greater degree* *But the pressure is actually increasing on the US-Israeli Axis powers because the Houthis have now cashed in their promise of opening up a new front with the launch of ballistic missiles onto Israel earlier today.* *Likewise, Hezbollah has been ramping up the humiliation of Israeli forces in lower Lebanon with the advent of FPV drones, including those on fiber-optics, which have reportedly taken out many Merkava tanks in the past few days alone, with footage attesting to various hits. The IDF is scrambling to recover after announcing intent to annex southern Lebanon. * *Hezbollah=E2=80=99s retaliation has been so fierce several videos appeared of Israeli mayors of border towns hysterical about the damage that=E2=80=99s been done, and the fact th= at their settlements are being completely abandoned by fearful Israelis. * *Jerusalem Post even whines about the potential collapse of the IDF: * *https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-891368* *Protests have again erupted in Israeli society against the government=E2=80= =99s disastrous wars.* *Police are forcibly dispersing hundreds of protesters in Rabin Square, Tel Aviv at a demonstration against the war. The largest demonstration to date, after all previous ones were also dispersed. * *All the while, the reality sets in that US and Israel have vastly exaggerated the amount of Iranian launchers they destroyed:* *As of this writing another major refinery in Bahrain has gone up in flames: * *The IRGC has finally finished off or burned down the largest oil refinery in the Middle East, located in Bahrain* *=F0=9F=94=98There=E2=80=99s no place left to even assess the damage. The B= ahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO) has acknowledged that the plant has been completely burned out.* *=F0=9F=94=98BAPCO is essentially the foundation of the national economy an= d one of the oldest refineries in the Persian Gulf region. The Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO) is Bahrain=E2=80=99s state-owned oil and gas company. The B= apco Refinery has a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day.* *Iran=E2=80=99s launches remain steady as US and Israel no longer have any capability to suppress the remaining capacity without heavy risks to their most capable craft:* *Link * *Some people forget that mobile launchers cannot be hit in the same way as static =E2=80=9Cpositions=E2=80=9D or C2 nodes, with long-range stand-off s= trikes using Tomahawks, etc. These truck-mounted launchers move around and need to be hit directly by something nearby like a plane or drone, rather than a missile which can take an hour or more to traverse the vast Iranian territory needed to reach interior Iran where the launcher is located. * *Drones are ideal for this, but Iran has been dangerously attriting the US MQ-9 Reaper fleet of late, with some estimates calculating up to 10% of US=E2=80=99s entire fleet having been destroyed thus far. * *The next problem is that given the USS Lincoln=E2=80=99s retreat to 1,000k= m+ from Iranian shores, most of the aerial assets on the carrier cannot even reach interior Iran as that requires a nearly 4,000km total combat range which none of the Lincoln=E2=80=99s attack craft (F-18s and F-35s) can even= come close to. * *Sure, they get refueled near the Persian Gulf by aerial tankers right before entering Iran, you say. But this vastly limits sortie counts and strains logistics, not least of which reason being that US=E2=80=99s KC-135 refueler fleet has also now faced accelerating attrition as we have seen earlier. Either way it=E2=80=99s a moot point because these craft are not g= oing to penetrate interior Iran even if they could, simply because it=E2=80=99s far= too dangerous and F-35s in passive/stealth mode can=E2=80=99t stray too far fro= m their E-3s which they network and datalink with. Those E-3s definitely can=E2=80= =99t get close to Iran=E2=80=99s shores, and now they too are being destroyed as see= n earlier. * *So, as you can see, the entire chain is being greatly strained which allows Iranian launchers to operate without much issue in the interior of the country, which is also why I believe even the =E2=80=9Cone third of Ira= nian launchers destroyed=E2=80=9D claim is likely exaggerated. Recall they had c= laimed to have destroyed 70-90% of them in June 2025, and Iran magically rebuilt them all since then. In reality, very few of them were ever destroyed because the US and Israel simply don=E2=80=99t have the capability to destr= oy mobile launchers en masse deep inside Iran. Just recall the great =E2=80=98= Scud hunt=E2=80=99 of the Iraqi war:* *=E2=80=94* *Other related items of note: * *A funny thing happened today after Gulf countries made not-so-subtle threats against Iran. UAE in particular was quickly silenced by Iran=E2=80= =99s blows. UAE Ministry of Defense reported major attacks against it today: * *=D9=88=D8=B2=D8=A7=D8=B1=D8=A9 =D8=A7=D9=84=D8=AF=D9=81=D8=A7=D8=B9 |MOD U= AE@modgovae=D8=A7=D9=84=D8=AF=D9=81=D8=A7=D8=B9=D8=A7=D8=AA =D8=A7=D9=84=D8= =AC=D9=88=D9=8A=D8=A9 =D8=A7=D9=84=D8=A5=D9=85=D8=A7=D8=B1=D8=A7=D8=AA=D9= =8A=D8=A9 =D8=AA=D8=AA=D8=B9=D8=A7=D9=85=D9=84 =D9=85=D8=B9 =D8=A7=D9=84=D8=B5=D9=88=D8=A7=D8=B1=D9=8A=D8=AE =D8=A7=D9=84=D8=A8=D8=A7= =D9=84=D9=8A=D8=B3=D8=AA=D9=8A=D8=A9 =D9=88=D8=A7=D9=84=D8=AC=D9=88=D8=A7= =D9=84=D8=A9 =D9=88=D8=A7=D9=84=D9=85=D8=B3=D9=8A=D8=B1=D8=A7=D8=AA =D8=A7= =D9=84=D8=A5=D9=8A=D8=B1=D8=A7=D9=86=D9=8A=D8=A9. UAE Air Defences engaged Iranian Ballistic and Cruise Missiles and UAVs Attacks #=D9=88=D8=B2=D8=A7=D8=B1=D8=A9_=D8=A7=D9=84=D8=AF=D9=81=D8=A7=D8= =B9#=D9=88=D8=B2=D8=A7=D8=B1=D8=A9_=D8=A7=D9=84=D8=AF=D9=81=D8=A7=D8=B9_=D8= =A7=D9=84=D8=A5=D9=85=D8=A7=D8=B1=D8=A7=D8=AA=D9=8A=D8=A9 #MOD #UAEMinistry= OfDefence7:32 AM =C2=B7 Mar 28, 2026 =C2=B7 597K Views------------------------------155 Replies =C2=B7 307 Reposts =C2=B7 777 Likes* *Which was quickly followed by a statement from UAE=E2=80=99s foreign minis= ter which essentially walks back previous implied threats, claiming they had been =E2=80=9Cmisinterpreted=E2=80=9D:* *Now they seek a =E2=80=9Cpolitical solution=E2=80=9D. It seems ballistic m= issiles often have that effect.* *=E2=80=94* *As well as the destroyed AWACS, Iran claims to have hit a P-8 recon craft, with other sources claiming multiple EC-130Hs destroyed:* *Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch@BabakTaghvaee1BREAKING: Unfortunately, two of the world=E2=80=99s last operational EC-130H Compass Call aircraft o= f the United States Air Force, deployed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, have also been damaged as a result of a ballistic missile strike by the IRGC Aerospace Force. Both 7:05 PM =C2=B7 Mar 27, 2026 =C2=B7 285K Views------------------------------100 Replies =C2=B7 795 Reposts =C2=B7 3K Likes* *If true, together these represent major attrition to US=E2=80=99s =E2=80= =9Ceyes in the sky=E2=80=9D and ELINT fleets, which blinds US capabilities even further in= the region. * *=E2=80=94* *The current status of the US carrier fleet:* *It can be seen that very few are available despite needing to be dispersed around the world in all of the US=E2=80=99s most important theaters.* *Despite all this, WaPo reports that the Pentagon is still preparing for =E2=80=9Cweeks=E2=80=9D of ground operations as troops continue streaming i= n to the region:* *https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/28/trump-iran-gro= und-troops-marines/* *=E2=80=94* *Trump must be confident of what those troops can accomplish given that he=E2=80=99s already considering renaming Hormuz after himself: * --00000000000097ea95064e29835e Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/essential-us-awacs-plan= e-destroyed?utm_source=3Dpost-email-title&publication_id=3D1351274&= post_id=3D192434063&utm_campaign=3Demail-post-title&isFreemail=3Dfa= lse&r=3D210kv&triedRedirect=3Dtrue&utm_medium=3Demail

Essential US AWACS Plane Destroyed Amidst Ne= w Iranian Attacks, as US Continues Losing Critical Capability in Region=

USS Tripoli has finally arrived in the CENTCOM region, wh= ich presumably means somewhere in the northern Arabian Sea. Given that the = Lincoln was said to have scurried away to a 1,000km distance, we can only a= ssume the Tripoli will keep a similar range away from Iranian missiles whil= e Trump continues to bide his time with his weak-handed bluffs.<= /p>

In the meantime, US losses have mounted in the regio= n. Today came the following announcements:=C2=A0

Saudi Arabian Prince Sultan Airbase was hit with many = US KC-135s damaged and destroyed:=C2=A0

3D""

Pro-IRGC outlets have released satellite imagery showing heavy damage ac= ross the main tarmac at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, with large = fires still burning in the aftermath of an IRGC missile strike.

Three U.S. Air Force KC-135 tankers were reportedly destroyed, wit= h additional aircraft severely damaged.

But shocking new images have also now revealed that= an E-3 AWACS plane worth nearly $300 million (1993 dollars, inflation adju= sted to $600-700m today) was also completely destroyed:

3D""3D""3D""

Pictures show the total loss of 81-0005, an E-3G =E2=80=9CSent= ry=E2=80=9D Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) Aircraft with th= e U.S. Air Force=E2=80=99s 552nd Air Control Wing based out of Tinker Air F= orce Base, Oklahoma, following yesterday=E2=80=99s Iranian ballistic missil= e and drone attack on Prince Sultan Airbase

<= font color=3D"#000000">By the way, take a look at the accuracy of the hi= t=E2=80=94right on the radome of the plane, which lies beside it:=C2= =A0

Before and after:

3D""

Ne= w reports claim Russia has been providing Iran with precisely these satelli= te coordinates for the hits.

Experts beli= eve the AWACS were rushed there in order to make up the radar gap for the s= trategic-level radars like the AN/TPY-2s that had already been destroyed by= Iran=E2=80=94but now even the AWACS are getting smoked, leaving the US inc= reasingly blind.

Remember the existential= hubbub surrounding Russia=E2=80=99s A-50s being hit?

3D""

Aviat= ion historian and anti-Iran-regimist Babak Tagvhaee remarks on the losses:<= /b>

The legend himself was not pleased:

3D""

Funny= how much the Special Combat Operation is starting to resemble the Special = Military Operation.

A dozen troops were a= lso wounded in the attack, with two of them =E2=80=9Cseriously=E2=80=9D acc= ording to NYT.

Unsourced reports on social media claim one has died, but this has not bee= n verified.=C2=A0

Even NYT a= dmits this was one of the most serious breaches of US air defense in the wa= r:=C2=A0

The combined miss= ile and drone attack amounted to one of the most serious breaches of Americ= an air defenses in the course of the monthlong war with Iran.

Let us again be clear about Tru= mp=E2=80=99s current plan:=C2=A0

The plan is to continue bombing Iran to maintain psychological pressur= e while building up troops in the region as a further pressure lever in the= hopes that Iran=E2=80=99s leadership will grow frightened and finally agre= e to negotiate and compromise. There are no real remaining military objecti= ves left because all the original ones were proven to be impossible to actu= ally implement=E2=80=94i.e. regime change, Iran=E2=80=99s surrender, collap= se of the IRGC or wider military structure, societal upheaval, etc.= =C2=A0

Now the only operative plan= remains to get Iran to negotiate a ceasefire that can look at least mildly= favorable to Trump=E2=80=99s optics. The problem is, thus far Iran has con= tinued to maintain absolutely maximalist demands, such as the total removal= of all US bases from the region, as well as guarantees of never striking I= ran again.

Disregarding the completely un= realistic=E2=80=94and to be frank, childish=E2=80=94ideas about ground troo= p invasion of Iranian land, we can therefore conclude that Trump=E2=80=99s = one final remaining emergency lever will be to massively bomb Iran=E2=80=99= s energy infrastructure, a kind of desperate last-ditch hail mary out of sp= ite, the fit of a sadistic sore loser.=C2=A0

But even this is obviously fraught with great risk because= :

  1. It will not accomplish anything, due to Iran=E2=80=99s g= rid decentralization

  2. It will cause an even bigg= er headache for the US when Iran responds in kind and lights up the entire = region=E2=80=99s critical infrastructure to an even greater degree

But the pressure is actually increasing= on the US-Israeli Axis powers because the Houthis have now cashed in their= promise of opening up a new front with the launch of ballistic missiles on= to Israel earlier today.

Likewise, Hezbol= lah has been ramping up the humiliation of Israeli forces in lower Lebanon = with the advent of FPV drones, including those on fiber-optics, which have = reportedly taken out many Merkava tanks in the past few days alone, with fo= otage attesting to various hits. The IDF is scrambling to recover after ann= ouncing intent to annex southern Lebanon.=C2=A0

=

Hezbollah=E2=80=99s reta= liation has been so fierce=C2=A0several videos appeared of I= sraeli mayors=C2=A0o= f border towns hysterical about the damage that=E2=80=99s been done, and th= e fact that their settlements are being completely abandoned by fearful Isr= aelis.=C2=A0

Jerusale= m Post even whines about the potential collapse of the IDF:=C2=A0

Protests have again erupted in Israel= i society=C2=A0against the government=E2=80=99s disastrou= s wars.

Police are forci= bly dispersing hundreds of protesters in Rabin Square, Tel Aviv at a demons= tration against the war. The largest demonstration to date, after all previ= ous ones were also dispersed.=C2=A0

<= font color=3D"#000000">All the while, the reality sets in that US and Is= rael have vastly exaggerated the amount of Iranian launchers they destroyed= :

3D""
=

As of this writing another major refinery in Bahrain ha= s gone up in flames:=C2=A0

The IRGC has finally finishe= d off or burned down the largest oil refinery in the Middle East, located i= n Bahrain

=F0=9F=94=98There=E2=80=99s no place = left to even assess the damage. The Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO) has a= cknowledged that the plant has been completely burned out.<= /p>

=F0=9F=94=98BAPCO is essentially the foundation of the national= economy and one of the oldest refineries in the Persian Gulf region. The B= ahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO) is Bahrain=E2=80=99s state-owned oil and g= as company. The Bapco Refinery has a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day.

Iran=E2=80=99s launches = remain steady as US and Israel no longer have any capability to suppress th= e remaining capacity without heavy risks to their most capable craft:

3D""
Link

Some people forget that = mobile launchers cannot be hit in the same way as static =E2=80=9Cpositions= =E2=80=9D or C2 nodes, with long-range stand-off strikes using Tomahawks, e= tc. These truck-mounted launchers move around and need to be hit directly b= y something nearby like a plane or drone, rather than a missile which can t= ake an hour or more to traverse the vast Iranian territory needed to reach = interior Iran where the launcher is located.=C2=A0<= /p>

Drones are ideal for this, but Iran has been dangero= usly attriting the US MQ-9 Reaper fleet of late, with some estimates calcul= ating up to 10% of US=E2=80=99s entire fleet having been destroyed thus far= .=C2=A0

The next problem is that given the USS Lincoln=E2=80=99s retreat= to 1,000km+ from Iranian shores, most of the aerial assets on the carrier = cannot even reach interior Iran as that requires a nearly 4,000km total com= bat range which=C2=A0none<= /em>=C2=A0of the Lincoln=E2=80= =99s attack craft (F-18s and F-35s) can even come close to.=C2=A0

Sure, they get refueled near the Persian Gulf by aerial tankers right befo= re entering Iran, you say. But this vastly limits sortie counts and strains= logistics, not least of which reason being that US=E2=80=99s KC-135 refuel= er fleet has also now faced accelerating attrition as we have seen earlier.= Either way it=E2=80=99s a moot point because these craft are not going to = penetrate interior Iran even if they could, simply because it=E2=80=99s far= too dangerous and F-35s in passive/stealth mode can=E2=80=99t stray too fa= r from their E-3s which they network and datalink with. Those E-3s definite= ly can=E2=80=99t get close to Iran=E2=80=99s shores, and now they=C2= =A0too=C2=A0are being destroyed as seen earlier.=C2= =A0

So, as you can see, the= entire chain is being greatly strained which allows Iranian launchers to o= perate without much issue in the interior of the country, which is also why= I believe even the =E2=80=9Cone third of Iranian launchers destroyed=E2=80= =9D claim is likely exaggerated. Recall they had claimed to have destroyed = 70-90% of them in June 2025, and Iran magically rebuilt them all since then= . In reality, very few of them were ever destroyed because the US and Israe= l simply don=E2=80=99t have the capability to destroy mobile launchers en m= asse deep inside Iran. Just recall the great =E2=80=98Scud hunt=E2=80=99 of= the Iraqi war:

3D=

=E2=80=94

= Other related items of note:=C2=A0

A funny thing happened today after Gulf countries made not-so-s= ubtle threats against Iran. UAE in particular was quickly silenced by Iran= =E2=80=99s blows. UAE Ministry of Defense reported major attacks against it= today:=C2=A0

=D9=88=D8=B2=D8=A7=D8=B1=D8=A9 =D8=A7=D9=84=D8=AF=D9=81=D8=A7=D8=B9= |MOD UAE@modgovae

=D8=A7=D9=84=D8=AF=D9=81=D8=A7=D8=B9=D8=A7=D8=AA = =D8=A7=D9=84=D8=AC=D9=88=D9=8A=D8=A9 =D8=A7=D9=84=D8=A5=D9=85=D8=A7=D8=B1= =D8=A7=D8=AA=D9=8A=D8=A9 =D8=AA=D8=AA=D8=B9=D8=A7=D9=85=D9=84 =D9=85=D8=B9 = =D8=A7=D9=84=D8=B5=D9=88=D8=A7=D8=B1=D9=8A=D8=AE =D8=A7=D9=84=D8=A8=D8=A7= =D9=84=D9=8A=D8=B3=D8=AA=D9=8A=D8=A9 =D9=88=D8=A7=D9=84=D8=AC=D9=88=D8=A7= =D9=84=D8=A9 =D9=88=D8=A7=D9=84=D9=85=D8=B3=D9=8A=D8=B1=D8=A7=D8=AA =D8=A7= =D9=84=D8=A5=D9=8A=D8=B1=D8=A7=D9=86=D9=8A=D8=A9. UAE Air Defences engaged = Iranian Ballistic and Cruise Missiles and UAVs Attacks=C2=A0#=D9=88=D8=B2=D8=A7=D8=B1=D8=A9_=D8=A7=D9=84= =D8=AF=D9=81=D8=A7=D8=B9#=D9=88=D8=B2= =D8=A7=D8=B1=D8=A9_=D8=A7=D9=84=D8=AF=D9=81=D8=A7=D8=B9_=D8=A7=D9=84=D8=A5= =D9=85=D8=A7=D8=B1=D8=A7=D8=AA=D9=8A=D8=A9=C2=A0#MOD=C2=A0#UAEMinistryOfDefence

7:32 AM =C2=B7 Mar = 28, 2026=C2=A0=C2=B7=C2=A0597K=C2=A0Views

155=C2=A0Replies=C2=A0=C2=B7=C2=A0307=C2=A0Reposts=C2=A0=C2=B7=C2=A0777=C2=A0Likes

=

Which was quickly followed by a statement fro= m UAE=E2=80=99s foreign minister which essentially walks back previous impl= ied threats, claiming they had been =E2=80=9Cmisinterpreted=E2=80=9D:

3D""

Now they seek a =E2=80=9Cpolitical solution=E2=80=9D. It seems= ballistic missiles often have that effect.

= =E2=80=94

As well as the destroyed AWA= CS, Iran claims to have hit a P-8 recon craft, with other sources claiming = multiple EC-130Hs destroyed:

=

Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch@BabakTaghvaee1

BREAK= ING: Unfortunately, two of the world=E2=80=99s last operational EC-130H Com= pass Call aircraft of the United States Air Force, deployed at Prince Sulta= n Air Base in Saudi Arabia, have also been damaged as a result of a ballist= ic missile strike by the IRGC Aerospace Force. Both=C2=A0

<= div style=3D"max-width:100%">

7:05 PM =C2=B7 Mar 27, 2026=C2=A0=C2=B7=C2=A0285K=C2=A0Views

100=C2=A0Re= plies=C2=A0=C2=B7= =C2=A0795=C2=A0Re= posts=C2=A0=C2=B7= =C2=A03K=C2=A0Lik= es

If true, togeth= er these represent major attrition to US=E2=80=99s =E2=80=9Ceyes in the sky= =E2=80=9D and ELINT fleets, which blinds US capabilities even further in th= e region.=C2=A0

=E2=80=94

The current status of the US carrier fleet:=

3D""
<= p style=3D"max-width:100%;font-family:"Times New Roman"">It can be seen that very few are available despite needi= ng to be dispersed around the world in all of the US=E2=80=99s most importa= nt theaters.

Despite all this, WaPo repor= ts that the Pentagon is still preparing for =E2=80=9Cweeks=E2=80=9D of grou= nd operations as troops continue streaming in to the region:

=

=E2=80=94

Trump must be confident of what those troop= s can accomplish given that he=E2=80=99s already considering renaming Hormu= z after himself:=C2=A0

3D""


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X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 13:15:50 -0000 --0000000000005a151a064e2988e8 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable https://x.com/HadiNasrallah/status/2037706371664052547 After massacring Alawites and Druze the pogrom against Christians has begun. Jolani thugs are attacking Christian businesses and homes. Churches attacked and statues of virgin Mary destroyed. Thank you USA for bringing =E2=80=9Cdemocracy and freedom=E2=80=9D to Syria --0000000000005a151a064e2988e8 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://x.com/HadiNasrallah/status/203770637166405254= 7
After massacring Alawites and Druze the pogrom against Christians has begun= . Jolani thugs are attacking Christian businesses and homes. Churches attac= ked and statues of virgin Mary destroyed. Thank you USA for bringing =E2=80= =9Cdemocracy and freedom=E2=80=9D to Syria
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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 06:46:21 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 09:46:05 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzBEPmvHZDVdX5aOc2-CMihuGDVsIAhAMicB2gNSro3m7fFPATnzfyqQX28 Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0000000000009d8c0a064e29f5be" Subject: [Salon] IRGC Warning to U.S. Leadership X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 13:46:24 -0000 --0000000000009d8c0a064e29f5be Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable [image: =F0=9F=94=BA] IRGC Warning to U.S. Leadership: =E2=80=9CThe Zionist= -American invading forces, by bombing the University of Science and Technology in Tehran, have once again targeted Iranian universities. [image: =F0=9F=94=B9] The rulers = of the White House should know that from now on, all universities of the occupying regime and American universities in West Asia are considered legitimate targets, until two universities are struck in retaliation for Iranian universities that were destroyed. [image: =F0=9F=94=B9] We advise all staff= , professors, students, and residents near American universities in the region to stay at least one kilometer away to ensure their safety. [image: =F0=9F=94=B9] If the U.S. government wants its universities in the region t= o avoid further retaliation beyond two strikes at this stage, it must officially condemn the bombing of universities by 12:00 PM Tuesday, March 30 (Tehran time). [image: =F0=9F=94=B9]If it wants its universities n= ot to be targeted afterward, it must restrain its allied forces from attacking universities and research centers; otherwise, this threat will remain in effect. [image: =F0=9F=8E=A5] VIDEO: Iran University of Science and Technol= ogy- Tehran heavily damaged by Israeli-US strikes earlier on Saturday. https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2038060699205701873?s=3D20 --0000000000009d8c0a064e29f5be Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

3D"=F0=9F=94=BA" IRGC Warni= ng to U.S. Leadership: =E2=80=9CThe Zionist-American invading forces, by bombing the University of= Science and Technology in Tehran, have once again targeted Iranian univers= ities. 3D"=F0=9F=94=B9" The rulers of the White House should know that from now= on, all universities of the occupying regime and American universities in = West Asia are considered legitimate targets, until two universities are str= uck in retaliation for Iranian universities that were destroyed. 3D"=F0=9F=94=B9" We advise all staff, professors, students, and resident= s near American universities in the region to stay at least one kilometer a= way to ensure their safety. 3D"=F0=9F=94=B9" If the U.S. government wants its universities in the re= gion to avoid further retaliation beyond two strikes at this stage, it must= officially condemn the bombing of universities by 12:00 PM Tuesday, March 30 (= Tehran time).=20 3D"=F0=9F=94=B9"If it wants its universities not to be targeted afterwar= d, it must restrain its allied forces from attacking universities and resea= rch centers; otherwise, this threat will remain in effect. 3D"=F0=9F=8E=A5" VIDEO: Iran University of Science and Technology- Tehran hea= vily damaged by Israeli-US strikes earlier on Saturday.
https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/20= 38060699205701873?s=3D20

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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 06:50:19 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 09:50:03 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzAEbUPy4naDhwA4uZSkpNz6FpqN0vj_kwHS3fK37HBAqoIf20yOesCQTtA Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000cee94a064e2a030c" Subject: [Salon] Invoking faith in wartime, Pete Hegseth breaks norms and worries critics X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 13:50:22 -0000 --000000000000cee94a064e2a030c Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Invoking faith in wartime, Pete Hegseth breaks norms and worries critics The defense secretary is upending decades-old norms, and current and former leaders say his proselytizing violates the Constitution and undermines troop cohesion. The Washington Post, March 29, 2026 March 29, 2026 at 5:00 a.m. EDT Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has put his faith at the center of his work at the Pentagon. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP) By Michelle Boorstein U.S. military leaders have long understood the power and perils of invoking faith =E2=80=94 especially in wartime. Facing the Germans in World War II, Gen. George Patton ordered a chaplain to write an interfaith prayer for troops to say on the battlefield. It took just a week in September 2001 for Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld to change the name of the campaign against terrorism from Operation Infinite Justice to Operation Enduring Freedom =E2=80=94 a switch= meant to clarify that the U.S. was not in a religious war. And as chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the late 2000s, with troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, Navy Admiral Mike Mullen kept Mass off his public schedule, aiming to keep the particulars of his Catholic faith private. But those longtime norms are being upended by the proselytizing Christian campaign of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, say multiple former high-ranking military officials and experts on religion and law. Rather than boosting cohesion through a more universal spiritual uplift, they say, the new approach violates the Constitution and undermines the bonds of mutual respect between troops that are essential, especially in wartime. Every month at the Pentagon, Hegseth hosts evangelical worship services that legal experts say are unprecedented. His social media profile and public comments routinely espouse his understanding of Christianity, which is one that would dominate American life and cast those who disagree with him as God=E2=80=99s enemies. He has brought clergy from his small Christia= n denomination to preach at the Pentagon, including a prominent pastor who says women shouldn=E2=80=99t have the right to vote. And in recent weeks, the war with Muslim-majority Iran has only made Hegseth=E2=80=99s approach more stark. On Wednesday at the Pentagon, Hegseth prayed for U.S. troops to inflict =E2=80=9Coverwhelming violence of action against tho= se who deserve no mercy =E2=80=A6 We ask these things with bold confidence in the = mighty and powerful name of Jesus Christ.=E2=80=9D Later that day, his department = announced military chaplains would no longer wear their rank on their uniform and instead would wear religious insignia. The Pentagon=E2=80=99s shift from previous historical norms is dangerous, a= ccording to multiple former high-ranking military officials, heads of chaplain corps, some veterans groups, current Pentagon staff and current officers, some of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid retribution from the Trump administration. =E2=80=9CThe American military has had a remarkable ride of equanimity and = fairness and justice and all manner of good adjectives with regard to religion. It= =E2=80=99s done this in a way that=E2=80=99s really remarkable =E2=80=94 until now,=E2= =80=9D said retired Army Col. Larry Wilkerson, who served as chief of staff to Colin Powell when he was secretary of state and then was chair of the Joint Chiefs. Hegseth=E2= =80=99s actions, Wilkerson said, =E2=80=9Care totally violative of everything that transpired before it. This has come on us in a very quick fashion.=E2=80=9D Retired Army Maj. Gen. Randy Manner, who was second-in-command at the National Guard from 2011 to 2012, has worked in recent years to train hundreds of interfaith military chaplains. Manner said he has talked with =E2=80=9Cdozens and dozens=E2=80=9D of active-duty chaplains in recent week= s who say those who don=E2=80=99t identify with Hegseth =E2=80=9Care being marginalized.=E2= =80=9D They feel they can=E2=80=99t voice their concerns to their own superiors, he said, and fee= l their work as the primary advocate for troops=E2=80=99 spiritual, mental and mora= l health is being threatened. =E2=80=9CI=E2=80=99ve had people tell me they=E2=80=99re not included in st= aff meetings,=E2=80=9D Manner said. Requests for interview to the chaplain corps of all the branches of the military and the Military Chaplains Association were not answered. A senior Army civilian who has worked in the Pentagon for decades said people who work there are afraid to talk to one another or their superiors about concerns over Hegseth=E2=80=99s actions. The Army civilian, who spoke= on the condition of anonymity because they fear of being punished at work or fired, said limits that used to exist around proselytizing have evaporated under Hegseth. The situation, the person said, is =E2=80=9Cterrifying.=E2= =80=9D If troops are trained to believe that =E2=80=9CGod is on our side,=E2=80=9D= the person said, =E2=80=9Cwhat precludes us from doing anything we want to win? The st= rength of our military is our people, and their sense of belonging to their unit and their service.=E2=80=9D Hegseth has also scrapped the Army=E2=80=99s Spiritual Fitness guide becaus= e, he said, it was more focused on self-care than =E2=80=9Ctruth.=E2=80=9D He has= wiped out dozens of military codes for faith groups he has deemed overkill. Pentagon press secretary Kingsley Wilson said their office is =E2=80=9Cprou= d to host these services=E2=80=9D and will continue to do so. =E2=80=9CPrayer services at the Pentagon are 100 percent voluntary and are = not mandated whatsoever. It is not against the law to worship Christ voluntarily anywhere in the United States,=E2=80=9D Wilson said in a statem= ent to The Washington Post. =E2=80=9CThe Secretary=E2=80=99s prayer services undou= btedly improve morale for those who choose to attend and are constitutionally protected. No special treatment or punishment is given as a result of one=E2=80=99s ch= oice to attend these prayer services.=E2=80=9D Army chaplains preparing to deploy to Iraq in 2008. (LM Otero/AP) A move to inclusion Faith is woven into military life, say longtime military leaders, enlisted members and experts. But the role of religious communities and chaplains have long been understood as part of a broader support umbrella. =E2=80=9CThere has been a lot of inclusion. It was never used in a way that= was meant to push anyone out,=E2=80=9D said Lou Elliott-Cysewski, a former Army= nurse who now is a spokesperson for Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America. =E2=80=9CThe idea behind faith in the military and in combat =E2=80=94 what= ever your faith is, even if it=E2=80=99s atheistic =E2=80=94 the idea of having a greater m= ission is really, really useful in the military. However, being weaponized is the opposite of what the original intention is. People tune out and I think that=E2=80=99s really, really dangerous.=E2=80=9D Which is why, former military and current military officers said, the military has historically adopted an unspoken rule: no religion and no politics. =E2=80=9CThe point was, it didn=E2=80=99t matter, and it shouldn=E2=80=99t = have mattered, who you worship, or whether you worship at all. What mattered was doing the job and being mindful that you represent all Americans, no matter what they believe,=E2=80=9D said a person who was in the leadership team of a recent = chairman of the Joint Chiefs. =E2=80=9CI don=E2=80=99t approve of cramming your reli= gious faith down people=E2=80=99s throats, and when the top of the chain couches these opera= tions in this hyper-Christian tone, it flies in the face of the freedom of religion that the Constitution enshrines and that our men and women in uniform sign up to defend.=E2=80=9D Experts say in the 1990s, 20 years after the draft ended, the military shifted to pull disproportionately from conservative-leaning areas of the country. Then the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, pushed ideas of religious war into the fore. The Air Force Academy in the 1990s and early 2000s faced investigations and litigation over allegations that religious intolerance and proselytizing were rampant. An investigative panel in 2005 said some academy officials used their positions to promote their understanding of Christianity and didn=E2=80=99t accommodate the religious = needs of non-Christians. President George W. Bush and Rumsfeld, in the years after 9/11, spoke often about de-emphasizing any religious differences between U.S. troops and their enemies. Rumsfeld in 2001 invited some local Muslim leaders to the Pentagon to gauge their feelings about how the administration was communicating, said a chaplain who was at the meeting. Around that time, the Navy Chaplain Corps changed its motto from =E2=80=9CCooperation Without Compromise=E2=80=9D to =E2=80=9CCalled to Serv= e All.=E2=80=9D The change aimed to emphasize that chaplains served everyone in their command, no matter the faith, said someone involved in the change. The military had been making steady progress toward inclusion, said Rachel Laser, president of Americans United for the Separation of Church and State. In 2017, the Pentagon expanded its list of recognized faiths so that people who belong to smaller groups receive the same rights and protections as those in larger groups, and also helped give the military an accurate depiction of its members. In 2014, the Air Force stopped requiring personnel to say =E2=80=9Cso help me God=E2=80=9D for various appointment o= aths. =E2=80=9CThings were improving, which in a way is not surprising because th= at was the trend in society. Society was moving towards its better angels, being more tolerant,=E2=80=9D Laser told The Post. Hegseth=E2=80=99s about-face = =E2=80=9Cis part of this rigorous march backwards.=E2=80=9D In an interview with The Post, an Air Force general agreed that the military had made concrete strides in the recent past toward increased accommodation and welcoming. Since Hegseth=E2=80=99s arrival, the general s= aid, =E2=80=9Cit feels like decades worth of progress has been undone in 12 months. It=E2=80= =99s heartbreaking and it=E2=80=99s heartbreaking to watch our chaplains try to = navigate this.=E2=80=9D Americans United earlier this week sued the Defense Department for not turning over public records requests about the Hegseth-led Christian prayer services at the Pentagon. In a release, it said Hegseth is abusing his position and taxpayer funds to impose his preferred religion. =E2=80=9CEven if these prayer services are presented as voluntary, there is pressure on federal employees to attend in order to appease their bosses = =E2=80=94 especially since these services occur amidst the Trump administration=E2=80= =99s campaign to punish anyone who doesn=E2=80=99t comply with its Christian Nat= ionalist agenda,=E2=80=9D AU wrote. Hegseth=E2=80=99s change comes as the Supreme Court has in recent years wea= kened church-state separation and supercharged the free exercise of religion. Among the concepts the justices are reexamining are what constitutes religious coercion and an illegal government =E2=80=9Cestablishment=E2=80= =9D of religion. Hegseth's pastor, Douglas Wilson, says the secretary has no choice but to center his Christianity in his work. (Rod Lamkey/AP) The Pentagon=E2=80=99s pastor To the Rev. Doug Wilson, an Idaho pastor who co-founded the 24,000-person denomination to which Hegseth belongs, the defense secretary =E2=80=9Cis si= mply being Christian in public.=E2=80=9D Doing anything but declaring Jesus is God is a violation of Hegseth=E2=80= =99s religious liberty, Wilson said this week in an interview with The Post. =E2=80=9CIf Pete didn=E2=80=99t go to these meetings and said, =E2=80=98I= =E2=80=99m privately a Christian but I won=E2=80=99t go because I want everyone to feel safe,=E2=80=99 then = he=E2=80=99s offering a pinch of incense to the secular God. We all honor some ultimate system. The reason [Hegseth=E2=80=99s faith community is] radical is we believe the Chr= istian God is the true God.=E2=80=9D Wilson said Hegseth was boosting morale in the military, citing, among other things, the Trump administration=E2=80=99s efforts to ban transgender= service members . =E2=80=9CI think the morale is very high, because we don=E2=80=99t have adm= irals in dresses, who aren=E2=80=99t supposed to be wearing dresses. Pete=E2=80=99s = emphasis on lethality and warrior readiness is, for the average sailor or marine =E2=80= =94 that=E2=80=99s just the jam,=E2=80=9D Wilson said. =E2=80=9CPeople feel lik= e someone is running this department who wakes up in the morning knowing what he thinks.=E2=80= =9D But Wilkerson, the retired Army admiral, said Hegseth=E2=80=99s actions are= pouring fuel on a military that is on the precipice of becoming polarized the way the country in many places is. Wilkerson is on the board of the Military Religious Freedom Foundation, which works to protect religious liberty and church-state separation in the military. The foundation says since Trump returned to office it=E2=80=99s been receiving a spike in military members = calling for help, with hundreds coming in each month. =E2=80=9COne side is very pro-MAGA and other is not. If you have something = like another Jan. 6, now we=E2=80=99re looking at a military that will start fig= hting itself, it=E2=80=99s a recipe for a civil war with military on both sides. = And God is not going to help that.=E2=80=9D ------------------------------ What readers are saying The comments express strong criticism of Pete Hegseth, focusing on his perceived hypocrisy and lack of alignment with Christian teachings. Many commenters highlight his personal history of infidelity and question his suitability as a leader, particularly in the context of his... Show more This summary is AI-generated. AI can make mistakes and this summary is not a replacement for reading the comments. --000000000000cee94a064e2a030c Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Invoking faith in wartime, Pete Hegse= th breaks norms and worries critics

The defen= se secretary is upending decades-old norms, and current and former leaders = say his proselytizing violates the Constitution and undermines troop cohesi= on.


The Wash= ington Post, March 29, 2026

M= arch 29, 2026 at 5:00 a.m. EDT
3D""
Defense Sec= retary Pete Hegseth has put his faith at the center of his work at the Pent= agon. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP)

U.S. military l= eaders have long understood the power and perils of invoking faith =E2=80= =94 especially in wartime.

Facing the Germans in World War II= , Gen. George Patton ordered a chaplain to write an interfaith prayer for t= roops to say on the battlefield.

It took just a week in September 2001 for Defen= se Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld to change the name of the campaign against = terrorism from Operation Infinite Justice to Operation Enduring Freedom =E2= =80=94 a switch meant to clarify that the U.S. was not in a religious war.<= /p>

=

And=C2=A0as chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the late 2000s, with troops=C2=A0in Iraq= and Afghanistan, Navy Admiral Mike Mullen kept Mass off his public schedul= e, aiming to keep the particulars of his Catholic faith private.

<= div class=3D"gmail-wpds-c-PJLV gmail-wpds-c-PJLV-bHCGeL-isStandardLayoutAd-= true gmail-article-body gmail-type-inline-ad gmail-subtype-desktop gmail-pr= eceding-anchor" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;max-width:none;margin-left:0= px;margin-right:0px;width:2048px">

But=C2=A0those longtime norms are being upended by the= proselytizing Christian campaign of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, say mu= ltiple former high-ranking military officials and experts on religion and l= aw. Rather than boosting cohesion through a more universal spiritual uplift= , they say, the new approach violates the Constitution and undermines the b= onds of mutual respect between troops that are essential, especially in war= time.

Every month at the Pentagon, Hegseth hosts evangelical worship= services that legal experts say are unprecedented. His social media profil= e and public comments routinely espouse his understanding of Christianity, = which is one that would dominate American life and cast those who disagree = with him as God=E2=80=99s enemies. He has brought clergy from his small Chr= istian denomination to preach at the Pentagon, including a prominent pastor= who says women shouldn=E2=80=99t have the right to vote.

And in recent weeks, the war with Muslim-majority Iran has on= ly made Hegseth=E2=80=99s approach more stark.

On Wednesday a= t the Pentagon,=C2=A0Hegseth prayed=C2=A0for U.S. troops to inflict =E2=80=9Coverwhel= ming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy =E2=80=A6 We ask= these things with bold confidence in the mighty and powerful name of Jesus= Christ.=E2=80=9D Later that day, his department=C2=A0ann= ounced=C2=A0military chaplains would no longer wear their rank on their= uniform and instead would wear religious insignia.

The Pentagon=E2=80=99s=C2=A0shift from previous historical norms is dangero= us, according to multiple former high-ranking military officials, heads of = chaplain corps, some veterans groups, current Pentagon staff and current of= ficers, some of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid retributi= on from the Trump administration.

=E2=80=9CThe American military has had a remarkable rid= e of equanimity and fairness and justice and all manner of good adjectives = with regard to religion. It=E2=80=99s done this in a way that=E2=80=99s rea= lly remarkable =E2=80=94 until now,=E2=80=9D said retired Army Col. Larry W= ilkerson, who served as chief of staff to Colin Powell when he was secretar= y of state and then was chair of the Joint Chiefs. Hegseth=E2=80=99s action= s, Wilkerson said, =E2=80=9Care totally violative of everything that transp= ired before it. This has come on us in a very quick fashion.=E2=80=9D

=

Retired Army Maj. Gen. Randy Manner,= who was second-in-command at the National Guard from 2011 to 2012, has wor= ked in recent years to train hundreds of interfaith military chaplains. Man= ner said he has talked with =E2=80=9Cdozens and dozens=E2=80=9D of active-d= uty chaplains in recent weeks who say those who don=E2=80=99t identify with= Hegseth =E2=80=9Care being marginalized.=E2=80=9D They feel they can=E2=80= =99t voice their concerns to their own superiors, he said, and feel their w= ork as the primary advocate for troops=E2=80=99 spiritual, mental and moral= health is being threatened.

=E2=80=9CI=E2=80=99ve had people tell me they=E2=80=99re no= t included in staff meetings,=E2=80=9D Manner said.

Requests = for interview to the chaplain corps of all the branches of the military and= the Military Chaplains Association were not answered.

A se= nior Army civilian who has worked in the Pentagon for decades=C2=A0said people who wor= k there are afraid to talk to one another or their superiors about concerns= over Hegseth=E2=80=99s actions. The Army civilian, who spoke on the condit= ion of anonymity because they fear of being punished at work or fired, said= limits that used to exist around proselytizing have evaporated under Hegse= th. The situation, the person said, is =E2=80=9Cterrifying.=E2=80=9D

If troops are trained to believe that=C2=A0=E2=80=9CGod is on our side,=E2=80= =9D the person said, =E2=80=9Cwhat precludes us from doing anything we want= to win? The strength of our military is our people, and their sense of bel= onging to their unit and their service.=E2=80=9D

=

Hegseth has also scrapped the Army=E2=80=99s Spiritual Fitness guide= because, he said, it was more focused on self-care than =E2=80=9Ctruth.=E2= =80=9D He has wiped out dozens of military codes for faith groups he has de= emed overkill.

Pentagon press secretary Kingsley Wilson sai= d their office is =E2=80=9Cproud to host these services=E2=80=9D and will c= ontinue to do so.

=E2=80=9CPrayer services at the Pentagon ar= e 100 percent voluntary and are not mandated whatsoever. It is not against = the law to worship Christ voluntarily anywhere in the United States,=E2=80= =9D Wilson said in a statement to The Washington Post. =E2=80=9CThe Secreta= ry=E2=80=99s prayer services undoubtedly improve morale for those who choos= e to attend and are constitutionally protected. No special treatment or pun= ishment is given as a result of one=E2=80=99s choice to attend these prayer= services.=E2=80=9D

3D""
Army chaplains preparing to dep= loy to Iraq in 2008. (LM Otero/AP)

A move t= o inclusion

Faith is woven into military life, say longtime = military leaders, enlisted members and experts. But the role of religious c= ommunities and chaplains have long been understood as part of a broader sup= port umbrella.

=E2=80=9CThere has been a lot of inclusion. It was never= used in a way that was meant to push anyone out,=E2=80=9D said Lou Elliott= -Cysewski, a former Army nurse who now is a spokesperson for Iraq and Afgha= nistan Veterans of America. =E2=80=9CThe idea behind faith in the military = and in combat =E2=80=94 whatever your faith is, even if it=E2=80=99s atheis= tic =E2=80=94 the idea of having a greater mission is really, really useful= in the military. However, being weaponized is the opposite of what the ori= ginal intention is. People tune out and I think that=E2=80=99s really, real= ly dangerous.=E2=80=9D

Which is why, former military and curr= ent military officers said, the military has historically adopted an unspok= en rule: no religion and no politics.

=E2=80=9CThe point was,= it didn=E2=80=99t matter, and it shouldn=E2=80=99t have mattered, who you = worship, or whether you worship at all. What mattered was doing the job and= being mindful that you represent all Americans, no matter what they believ= e,=E2=80=9D said a person who was in the leadership team of a recent chairm= an of the Joint Chiefs. =E2=80=9CI don=E2=80=99t approve of cramming your r= eligious faith down people=E2=80=99s throats, and when the top of the chain= couches these operations in this hyper-Christian tone, it flies in the fac= e of the freedom of religion that the Constitution enshrines and that our m= en and women in uniform sign up to defend.=E2=80=9D

=

Experts say in the 1990s, 20 years a= fter the draft ended, the military shifted to pull disproportionately from = conservative-leaning areas of the country. Then the terrorist attacks of Se= pt. 11, 2001, pushed ideas of religious war into the fore. The Air Force Ac= ademy in the 1990s and early 2000s faced investigations and litigation over= allegations that religious intolerance and proselytizing were rampant. An = investigative panel in 2005 said some academy officials used their position= s to promote their understanding of Christianity and didn=E2=80=99t accommo= date the religious needs of non-Christians.

President George W. Bush and R= umsfeld, in the years after 9/11, spoke often about de-emphasizing any reli= gious differences between U.S. troops and their enemies. Rumsfeld in 2001 i= nvited some local Muslim leaders to the Pentagon to gauge their feelings ab= out how the administration was communicating, said a chaplain who was at th= e meeting.

Around that time, the Navy= Chaplain Corps changed its motto from =E2=80=9CCooperation Without Comprom= ise=E2=80=9D to =E2=80=9CCalled to Serve All.=E2=80=9D The change aimed to = emphasize that chaplains served everyone in their command, no matter the fa= ith, said someone involved in the change.

The military had been making steady progress toward inclusion, s= aid Rachel Laser, president of Americans United for the Separation of Churc= h and State. In 2017, the Pentagon expanded its list of recognized faiths s= o that people who belong to smaller groups receive the same rights and prot= ections as those in larger groups, and also helped give the military an acc= urate depiction of its members. In 2014, the Air Force stopped requiring pe= rsonnel to say =E2=80=9Cso help me God=E2=80=9D for various appointment oat= hs.

=E2=80=9CThings were improving, which i= n a way is not surprising because that was the trend in society. Society wa= s moving towards its better angels, being more tolerant,=E2=80=9D Laser tol= d The Post. Hegseth=E2=80=99s about-face =E2=80=9Cis part of this rigorous = march backwards.=E2=80=9D

In an interview wi= th The Post, an Air Force general agreed that the military had made concret= e strides in the recent past toward increased accommodation and welcoming. = Since Hegseth=E2=80=99s arrival, the general said, =E2=80=9Cit feels like d= ecades worth of progress has been undone in 12 months. It=E2=80=99s heartbr= eaking and it=E2=80=99s heartbreaking to watch our chaplains try to navigat= e this.=E2=80=9D

Americans United earlier this week sued the = Defense Department for not turning over public records requests about the H= egseth-led Christian prayer services at the Pentagon. In a release, it said= Hegseth is abusing his position and taxpayer funds to impose his preferred= religion.

=E2=80=9CEven if these prayer services are present= ed as voluntary, there is pressure on federal employees to attend in order = to appease their bosses =E2=80=94 especially since these services occur ami= dst the Trump administration=E2=80=99s campaign to punish anyone who doesn= =E2=80=99t comply with its Christian Nationalist agenda,=E2=80=9D AU wrote.=

Hegseth=E2=80=99s change comes as the Supreme Court has in r= ecent years weakened church-state separation and supercharged the free exer= cise of religion. Among the concepts the justices are reexamining are what = constitutes religious coercion and an illegal government =E2=80=9Cestablish= ment=E2=80=9D of religion.

3D""
Hegseth's pastor, Dou= glas Wilson, says the secretary has no choice but to center his Christianit= y in his work. (Rod Lamkey/AP)

The Pentagon= =E2=80=99s pastor

To the Rev. = Doug Wilson, an Idaho pastor who co-founded the 24,000-person denomination = to which Hegseth belongs, the defense secretary =E2=80=9Cis simply being Ch= ristian in public.=E2=80=9D

=

Doing anything but declaring Jesus is God is a violation of Hegs= eth=E2=80=99s religious liberty, Wilson said this week in an interview with= =C2=A0The P= ost.

=E2=80=9CIf Pete didn=E2=80=99t go to these meetings and= said, =E2=80=98I=E2=80=99m privately a Christian but I won=E2=80=99t go be= cause I want everyone to feel safe,=E2=80=99 then he=E2=80=99s offering a p= inch of incense to the secular God. We all honor some ultimate system. The = reason [Hegseth=E2=80=99s faith community is] radical is we believe the Chr= istian God is the true God.=E2=80=9D

Wilson said Hegseth was = boosting morale in the military, citing, among other things, the Trump admi= nistration=E2=80=99s=C2=A0efforts to ban= transgender service members.

=E2=80=9CI think the morale= is very high, because we don=E2=80=99t have admirals in dresses, who aren= =E2=80=99t supposed to be wearing dresses. Pete=E2=80=99s emphasis on letha= lity and warrior readiness is, for the average sailor or marine =E2=80=94 t= hat=E2=80=99s just the jam,=E2=80=9D Wilson said. =E2=80=9CPeople feel like= someone is running this department who wakes up in the morning knowing wha= t he thinks.=E2=80=9D

But Wilkerson, the ret= ired Army admiral, said Hegseth=E2=80=99s actions are pouring fuel on a mil= itary that is on the precipice of becoming polarized the way the country in= many places is. Wilkerson is on the board of the Military Religious Freedo= m Foundation, which works to protect religious liberty and church-state sep= aration in the military. The foundation says since Trump returned to office= it=E2=80=99s been receiving a spike in military members calling for help, = with hundreds coming in each month.

=E2=80=9COne side is very= pro-MAGA and other is not. If you have something like another Jan. 6, now = we=E2=80=99re looking at a military that will start fighting itself, it=E2= =80=99s a recipe for a civil war with military on both sides. And God is no= t going to help that.=E2=80=9D

What readers are= saying

The comments express strong criticism of Pete He= gseth, focusing on his perceived hypocrisy and lack of alignment with Chris= tian teachings. Many commenters highlight his personal history of infidelit= y and question his suitability as a leader, particularly in the context of = his...=C2=A0Show more
This summary is AI-generated. AI can make mistakes and this summary is not= a replacement for reading the comments.
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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 06:51:47 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 09:51:31 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzBuYDqKHVsp6iM_ah_vBOUQpQIGalN7oVyjGmHorXkZ_a1lc3ojKWfabTc Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000087c18064e2a098b" Subject: [Salon] =?utf-8?q?America=E2=80=99s_Suez_Moment_at_Hormuz?= X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 13:51:50 -0000 --000000000000087c18064e2a098b Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable View in browser America=E2=80=99s Suez Moment at Hormuz How loss of a single trade route reshapes power, finance, and global order Global GeoPolitics Mar 28 =E2=88=99 Paid READ IN APP Loss of control over the Strait of Hormuz will mark the end of American global dominance in the same manner that the Suez Canal marked the end of British imperial power, with the mechanism of decline rooted not in immediate military defeat but in the rapid collapse of financial credibility, alliance confidence, and perceived authority over global trade routes. The precedent rests on the events of the Suez Crisis, where Britain, still formally a great power with global reach, attempted to reverse the nationalisation of the canal by force. Archival material and later scholarship, including Keith Kyle=E2=80=99s detailed study of Suez and Core= lli Barnett=E2=80=99s analysis of British strategic overreach, show that Britis= h leadership assumed residual authority would compel compliance. That assumption failed under coordinated pressure from the United States and the Soviet Union, alongside acute stress in sterling markets. Barry Eichengreen=E2=80=99s monetary history documents how the pound required eme= rgency support as capital flight accelerated during the crisis, demonstrating that financial dependence constrained military action. The withdrawal that followed did not destroy British capability in a material sense, yet it destroyed confidence in British autonomy. Within a decade, decolonisation accelerated, and within two, Britain=E2=80=99s reserve currency role had la= rgely dissipated. Economic historians have treated Suez as a credibility shock rather than a singular cause of decline. Harold James and Adam Tooze both describe the episode as the point at which markets and allies reassessed Britain=E2=80= =99s capacity to act independently. That reassessment drove capital reallocation and strategic realignment. The sequence aligns with earlier imperial contractions. Portugal=E2=80=99s loss of maritime dominance in the seventee= nth century, examined by Charles Boxer, followed the erosion of control over trade routes to Dutch competitors. The Dutch Republic, analysed by Jonathan Israel, saw financial supremacy weaken once naval control could no longer be guaranteed against rising British power. Each case demonstrates that control over narrow trade arteries carries disproportionate weight in sustaining systemic trust. Ray Dalio=E2=80=99s long-cycle framework, developed through research at Bri= dgewater Associates, synthesises these patterns into a sequence linking debt accumulation, external challenge, and loss of reserve currency status. Dalio writes that great powers decline when creditors begin to doubt both repayment capacity and enforcement capability. Independent analysts such as Russell Napier and Michael Hudson, writing outside mainstream policy institutions, reach related conclusions from different methodological positions, emphasising that financial systems depend on credible power projection as much as on economic size. Napier=E2=80=99s work on capital cy= cles stresses that reserve status depends on the expectation of order, while Hudson has argued that overextension abroad combined with internal debt burdens historically precedes monetary restructuring. The Strait of Hormuz occupies a comparable structural position within the contemporary system. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that roughly one fifth of globally traded oil transits through this corridor. Independent energy consultancies, including Rystad Energy and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, have published detailed assessments showing that alternative routes lack the capacity to offset a sustained closure. Disruption at Hormuz therefore transmits directly into global price formation, industrial output, and fiscal stability across importing economies. European dependence on external energy supplies, documented in work by the Bruegel think tank, and Asian manufacturing reliance on Gulf exports, analysed by Japanese and South Korean policy institutes, create a system in which a single chokepoint carries systemic risk. Control of such a chokepoint depends on more than fleet presence. It requires sustained dominance under contested conditions. The United States has maintained naval forces in the region for decades, yet recent military history shapes perceptions of endurance. Studies by Andrew Bacevich and reports from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft document the limits encountered in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, where prolonged engagements produced strategic withdrawal without decisive victory. These cases inform external assessments of American tolerance for extended conflict. Iran=E2=80=99s approach reflects a doctrine of asymmetrical warfare designe= d to exploit those limits. Analysis from the Royal United Services Institute and independent regional scholars such as Trita Parsi describe a strategy centred on denial, attrition, and calibrated escalation. Naval mines, anti-ship missiles, and distributed proxy networks create persistent disruption without presenting a conventional target set. The objective involves raising the cost of securing passage beyond politically sustainable levels. Historical parallels appear in weaker powers imposing disproportionate costs on stronger adversaries, as examined in Ivan Arregu=C3=ADn-Toft=E2=80=99s work on asymmetric conflict outcomes. Statements attributed to Donald Trump emphasise deterrence through threat of overwhelming response. Dalio records that policymakers in allied states question whether such threats translate into prolonged engagement when faced with sustained disruption. The issue concerns credibility under duration rather than capacity at a single point in time. Empirical work by political scientists such as Daryl Press suggests that credibility depends on demonstrated willingness to absorb costs, not merely on stated commitments. The financial position of the United States introduces an additional constraint. Public debt has reached levels that require substantial annual interest payments, limiting fiscal flexibility during crisis conditions. Analysis from the Bank for International Settlements and independent economists including Carmen Reinhart indicates that high debt burdens reduce the capacity to respond to external shocks without triggering inflationary or currency pressures. A disruption in Hormuz would likely increase energy prices, feeding directly into inflation across advanced economies. Central banks would face a conflict between tightening policy to contain inflation and maintaining accommodative conditions to manage debt servicing costs. Currency stability depends on sustained demand for dollar-denominated assets. The reserve role of the dollar has persisted due to liquidity, institutional depth, and the absence of a comparable alternative. However, independent analysts such as Michael Hudson and research groups examining BRICS financial initiatives note gradual efforts to diversify settlement mechanisms away from the dollar. These efforts remain limited in scale, yet a visible failure to secure critical trade routes could accelerate diversification by undermining confidence in the system=E2=80=99s guarantor= . Alliances would respond to such a shift in perception. European policy discussions, reflected in reports by Chatham House and German economic institutes, increasingly reference strategic autonomy in response to uncertainty about long-term US commitments. Asian economies dependent on Gulf energy supplies would face immediate pressure to secure alternative arrangements. China=E2=80=99s position as a major importer gives it a direc= t stake in the stability of Hormuz. Research from the Mercator Institute for China Studies indicates that China has expanded naval capabilities and logistical access points to protect maritime routes, though it has not yet assumed a dominant security role. A sustained crisis could alter that posture. Russia and other energy exporters would experience secondary effects through price movements and shifting demand patterns. Higher prices would strengthen fiscal positions for exporters while increasing strain on import-dependent economies. The redistribution of economic leverage would interact with existing geopolitical alignments, reinforcing trends toward a more fragmented system. The analogy with Suez rests on the role of perception in driving systemic change. Britain did not lose all capability in 1956, yet markets and allies concluded that it could no longer act independently of larger powers. That conclusion triggered capital flight, currency weakness, and strategic contraction. The United States retains far greater structural advantages than Britain held at that moment, including technological leadership and deeper financial markets. However, the mechanism of decline identified in historical cases does not require parity between situations. It requires a visible failure at a point of systemic importance. Dalio=E2=80=99s framework aligns with earlier theories in international pol= itical economy, including Charles Kindleberger=E2=80=99s argument that global stab= ility depends on a leading power capable of maintaining open trade routes and financial order. When that capacity comes into question, fragmentation follows. Independent scholarship has revisited this framework in light of current conditions, noting that no alternative power fully replicates the role, increasing the potential for disorder during transition. Energy flows, maritime control, and financial credibility converge in the Strait of Hormuz scenario. A sustained inability to guarantee passage would signal limits to American power in a domain central to the global economy. Historical precedent indicates that such a signal carries consequences beyond the immediate region, affecting currency stability, alliance structures, and capital allocation. The analysis of earlier empires shows consistent patterns. Portugal lost its position after failing to defend maritime routes against emerging competitors. The Dutch Republic=E2=80=99s financial dominance eroded once n= aval superiority weakened. Britain=E2=80=99s global role contracted after Suez demonstrated dependence and limited autonomy. Each case involved a moment where control over a critical artery failed and perception adjusted rapidly= . The present situation reflects similar dynamics under different technological and geopolitical conditions. Iran=E2=80=99s strategy aims to = impose sustained costs through asymmetrical means, extending conflict duration and exploiting political constraints within the United States. Evidence from previous conflicts indicates that such strategies can succeed against materially stronger opponents when the cost of engagement exceeds perceived benefit. A failure by the United States to secure the Strait of Hormuz would therefore represent more than a regional setback. It would demonstrate an inability to enforce open trade at a critical chokepoint, prompting reassessment among creditors and allies. Capital flows would respond to that reassessment, as they have in previous historical episodes. Currency stability would come under pressure, and alternative arrangements would gain traction. Historical precedent supports the argument that imperial systems do not collapse solely through battlefield defeat but through loss of confidence in their capacity to maintain order. The Suez Crisis provides a clear example of that process in operation. Dalio=E2=80=99s synthesis of long-ter= m cycles, supported by independent economic and historical scholarship, places the current situation within a recognisable pattern. Misjudgment of asymmetrical warfare forms a central risk. Stronger powers have repeatedly underestimated the capacity of weaker adversaries to impose prolonged costs. Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan provide empirical evidence of that pattern in recent decades. Iran=E2=80=99s strategy reflects awarene= ss of those precedents, combining regional leverage with methods designed to avoid decisive confrontation while sustaining pressure. Should the United States fail to secure the Strait of Hormuz under such conditions, the resulting shift in perception would align closely with the British experience in 1956. Allies would reassess commitments, creditors would reconsider exposure, and competing powers would expand influence within the emerging space. The end of dominance would follow not from a single defeat but from the cumulative effect of lost confidence. The historical record shows that control over vital trade routes underpins the authority of great powers. Loss of that control has repeatedly marked the transition from dominance to decline. The Strait of Hormuz now occupies that role within the contemporary system. A failure to secure it, given the structural pressures already present, would place the United States within the same trajectory that followed Britain after Suez, with asymmetrical warfare serving as the mechanism through which a weaker power compels that outcome. Authored By: Global GeoPolitics *Thank you for visiting. This is a reader-supported publication. If you believe journalism should serve the public, not the powerful, and you=E2=80= =99re in a position to help, becoming a PAID SUBSCRIBER truly makes a difference. Alternatively you can support by way of a cup of coffee:* https://buymeacoffee.com/ggtv | https://ko-fi.com/globalgeopolitics | Bitcoin: 3NiK8BoRZnkwJSHZSekuXKFizGPopkE7ns Invite your friends and earn rewards If you enjoy Global GeoPolitics, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe. 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America=E2=80=99s Suez Moment at Hormuz

How loss of a single t= rade route reshapes power, finance, and global order

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Loss of control over the= Strait of Hormuz will mark the end of American global dominance in the sam= e manner that the Suez Canal marked the end of British imperial power, with= the mechanism of decline rooted not in immediate military defeat but in th= e rapid collapse of financial credibility, alliance confidence, and perceiv= ed authority over global trade routes.

The precedent rests on the events of t= he Suez Crisis, where Britain, still formally a great power with global rea= ch, attempted to reverse the nationalisation of the canal by force. Archiva= l material and later scholarship, including Keith Kyle=E2=80=99s detailed s= tudy of Suez and Corelli Barnett=E2=80=99s analysis of British strategic ov= erreach, show that British leadership assumed residual authority would comp= el compliance. That assumption failed under coordinated pressure from the U= nited States and the Soviet Union, alongside acute stress in sterling marke= ts. Barry Eichengreen=E2=80=99s monetary history documents how the pound re= quired emergency support as capital flight accelerated during the crisis, d= emonstrating that financial dependence constrained military action. The wit= hdrawal that followed did not destroy British capability in a material sens= e, yet it destroyed confidence in British autonomy. Within a decade, decolo= nisation accelerated, and within two, Britain=E2=80=99s reserve currency ro= le had largely dissipated.

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Economic historians h= ave treated Suez as a credibility shock rather than a singular cause of dec= line. Harold James and Adam Tooze both describe the episode as the point at= which markets and allies reassessed Britain=E2=80=99s capacity to act inde= pendently. That reassessment drove capital reallocation and strategic reali= gnment. The sequence aligns with earlier imperial contractions. Portugal=E2= =80=99s loss of maritime dominance in the seventeenth century, examined by = Charles Boxer, followed the erosion of control over trade routes to Dutch c= ompetitors. The Dutch Republic, analysed by Jonathan Israel, saw financial = supremacy weaken once naval control could no longer be guaranteed against r= ising British power. Each case demonstrates that control over narrow trade = arteries carries disproportionate weight in sustaining systemic trust.

<= p style=3D"margin:0px 0px 20px;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:26px">Ray Da= lio=E2=80=99s long-cycle framework, developed through research at Bridgewat= er Associates, synthesises these patterns into a sequence linking debt accu= mulation, external challenge, and loss of reserve currency status. Dalio wr= ites that great powers decline when creditors begin to doubt both repayment= capacity and enforcement capability. Independent analysts such as Russell = Napier and Michael Hudson, writing outside mainstream policy institutions, = reach related conclusions from different methodological positions, emphasis= ing that financial systems depend on credible power projection as much as o= n economic size. Napier=E2=80=99s work on capital cycles stresses that rese= rve status depends on the expectation of order, while Hudson has argued tha= t overextension abroad combined with internal debt burdens historically pre= cedes monetary restructuring.

The Strait of Hormuz occupies a comparable stru= ctural position within the contemporary system. Data from the U.S. Energy I= nformation Administration indicates that roughly one fifth of globally trad= ed oil transits through this corridor. Independent energy consultancies, in= cluding Rystad Energy and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, have pub= lished detailed assessments showing that alternative routes lack the capaci= ty to offset a sustained closure. Disruption at Hormuz therefore transmits = directly into global price formation, industrial output, and fiscal stabili= ty across importing economies. European dependence on external energy suppl= ies, documented in work by the Bruegel think tank, and Asian manufacturing = reliance on Gulf exports, analysed by Japanese and South Korean policy inst= itutes, create a system in which a single chokepoint carries systemic risk.=

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Control of such a chokepoint de= pends on more than fleet presence. It requires sustained dominance under co= ntested conditions. The United States has maintained naval forces in the re= gion for decades, yet recent military history shapes perceptions of enduran= ce. Studies by Andrew Bacevich and reports from the Quincy Institute for Re= sponsible Statecraft document the limits encountered in Vietnam, Iraq, and = Afghanistan, where prolonged engagements produced strategic withdrawal with= out decisive victory. These cases inform external assessments of American t= olerance for extended conflict.

Iran=E2=80=99s approach reflects a doctrine o= f asymmetrical warfare designed to exploit those limits. Analysis from the = Royal United Services Institute and independent regional scholars such as T= rita Parsi describe a strategy centred on denial, attrition, and calibrated= escalation. Naval mines, anti-ship missiles, and distributed proxy network= s create persistent disruption without presenting a conventional target set= . The objective involves raising the cost of securing passage beyond politi= cally sustainable levels. Historical parallels appear in weaker powers impo= sing disproportionate costs on stronger adversaries, as examined in Ivan Ar= regu=C3=ADn-Toft=E2=80=99s work on asymmetric conflict outcomes.

Statements a= ttributed to Donald Trump emphasise deterrence through threat of overwhelmi= ng response. Dalio records that policymakers in allied states question whet= her such threats translate into prolonged engagement when faced with sustai= ned disruption. The issue concerns credibility under duration rather than c= apacity at a single point in time. Empirical work by political scientists s= uch as Daryl Press suggests that credibility depends on demonstrated willin= gness to absorb costs, not merely on stated commitments.

The financial positi= on of the United States introduces an additional constraint. Public debt ha= s reached levels that require substantial annual interest payments, limitin= g fiscal flexibility during crisis conditions. Analysis from the Bank for I= nternational Settlements and independent economists including Carmen Reinha= rt indicates that high debt burdens reduce the capacity to respond to exter= nal shocks without triggering inflationary or currency pressures. A disrupt= ion in Hormuz would likely increase energy prices, feeding directly into in= flation across advanced economies. Central banks would face a conflict betw= een tightening policy to contain inflation and maintaining accommodative co= nditions to manage debt servicing costs.

Currency stability depends on sustai= ned demand for dollar-denominated assets. The reserve role of the dollar ha= s persisted due to liquidity, institutional depth, and the absence of a com= parable alternative. However, independent analysts such as Michael Hudson a= nd research groups examining BRICS financial initiatives note gradual effor= ts to diversify settlement mechanisms away from the dollar. These efforts r= emain limited in scale, yet a visible failure to secure critical trade rout= es could accelerate diversification by undermining confidence in the system= =E2=80=99s guarantor.

Alliances would respond to such a shift in perception. = European policy discussions, reflected in reports by Chatham House and Germ= an economic institutes, increasingly reference strategic autonomy in respon= se to uncertainty about long-term US commitments. Asian economies dependent= on Gulf energy supplies would face immediate pressure to secure alternativ= e arrangements. China=E2=80=99s position as a major importer gives it a dir= ect stake in the stability of Hormuz. Research from the Mercator Institute = for China Studies indicates that China has expanded naval capabilities and = logistical access points to protect maritime routes, though it has not yet = assumed a dominant security role. A sustained crisis could alter that postu= re.

The analogy with Suez rests on the role of perception in driving= systemic change. Britain did not lose all capability in 1956, yet markets = and allies concluded that it could no longer act independently of larger po= wers. That conclusion triggered capital flight, currency weakness, and stra= tegic contraction. The United States retains far greater structural advanta= ges than Britain held at that moment, including technological leadership an= d deeper financial markets. However, the mechanism of decline identified in= historical cases does not require parity between situations. It requires a= visible failure at a point of systemic importance.

Dalio=E2=80=99s framework= aligns with earlier theories in international political economy, including= Charles Kindleberger=E2=80=99s argument that global stability depends on a= leading power capable of maintaining open trade routes and financial order= . When that capacity comes into question, fragmentation follows. Independen= t scholarship has revisited this framework in light of current conditions, = noting that no alternative power fully replicates the role, increasing the = potential for disorder during transition.

Energy flows, maritime control, and= financial credibility converge in the Strait of Hormuz scenario. A sustain= ed inability to guarantee passage would signal limits to American power in = a domain central to the global economy. Historical precedent indicates that= such a signal carries consequences beyond the immediate region, affecting = currency stability, alliance structures, and capital allocation.

The analysis= of earlier empires shows consistent patterns. Portugal lost its position a= fter failing to defend maritime routes against emerging competitors. The Du= tch Republic=E2=80=99s financial dominance eroded once naval superiority we= akened. Britain=E2=80=99s global role contracted after Suez demonstrated de= pendence and limited autonomy. Each case involved a moment where control ov= er a critical artery failed and perception adjusted rapidly.

The present situ= ation reflects similar dynamics under different technological and geopoliti= cal conditions. Iran=E2=80=99s strategy aims to impose sustained costs thro= ugh asymmetrical means, extending conflict duration and exploiting politica= l constraints within the United States. Evidence from previous conflicts in= dicates that such strategies can succeed against materially stronger oppone= nts when the cost of engagement exceeds perceived benefit.

A failure by the U= nited States to secure the Strait of Hormuz would therefore represent more = than a regional setback. It would demonstrate an inability to enforce open = trade at a critical chokepoint, prompting reassessment among creditors and = allies. Capital flows would respond to that reassessment, as they have in p= revious historical episodes. Currency stability would come under pressure, = and alternative arrangements would gain traction.

Historical precedent suppor= ts the argument that imperial systems do not collapse solely through battle= field defeat but through loss of confidence in their capacity to maintain o= rder. The Suez Crisis provides a clear example of that process in operation= . Dalio=E2=80=99s synthesis of long-term cycles, supported by independent e= conomic and historical scholarship, places the current situation within a r= ecognisable pattern.

Misjudgment of asymmetrical warfare forms a central risk= . Stronger powers have repeatedly underestimated the capacity of weaker adv= ersaries to impose prolonged costs. Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan provide = empirical evidence of that pattern in recent decades. Iran=E2=80=99s strate= gy reflects awareness of those precedents, combining regional leverage with= methods designed to avoid decisive confrontation while sustaining pressure= .

= Should the United States fail to secure the Strait of Hormuz under such con= ditions, the resulting shift in perception would align closely with the Bri= tish experience in 1956. Allies would reassess commitments, creditors would= reconsider exposure, and competing powers would expand influence within th= e emerging space. The end of dominance would follow not from a single defea= t but from the cumulative effect of lost confidence.

The historical record sh= ows that control over vital trade routes underpins the authority of great p= owers. Loss of that control has repeatedly marked the transition from domin= ance to decline. The Strait of Hormuz now occupies that role within the con= temporary system. A failure to secure it, given the structural pressures al= ready present, would place the United States within the same trajectory tha= t followed Britain after Suez, with asymmetrical warfare serving as the mec= hanism through which a weaker power compels that outcome.

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Rubio Is Concerned About Settler Violence. Now What?" X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:01:19 -0000 --000000000000f41e64064e2a2a39 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026-03-29/ty-article-opinion/.premium/oh-n= o-rubio-is-concerned-about-settler-violence-now-what/0000019d-3599-d3e9-adb= f-77dfdb9b0000 *Oh No! Rubio Is Concerned About Settler Violence. Now What?* *Gideon Levy =E2=80=A2 March 29 2026 * [image: A settler praying near a mattress at a makeshift outpost.] *A settler praying near a mattress at a makeshift outpost. Credit: Ilia Yefimovich/AFP* *Mr. Rubio, you are 'concerned' about violence that you are funding and arming. If you were truly concerned, you would find a way to put an end to to it with sanctions. But you and all your predecessors have made do with long years of hollow, made-in-America concern, while Palestinians pay in blood* *U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is concerned about settler violence. And according to him, he thinks the Israeli government is also concerned about it. If that's the quality of the intelligence available to you, Mr. Secretary, then I too am concerned. Very concerned. Either you know nothing about Israel or you're being disingenuous, it's not clear which is worse. * *The Israeli government is not concerned about the settler violence, it's behind it. It wants this violence because it serves its purposes, and it encourages the army to stoke it. You should know, Mr. Secretary, that in the eyes of the Israeli government, and of many Israelis, the criminals of the settlements are the heroes of our time. Of course they are doing nothing to stop them.* *And you, Mr. Rubio, if you were truly concerned you would find a way to put an end to this violence. One painful sanction, and no more violence. But you and all your predecessors made do with being concerned =E2=80=93 lo= ng years of hollow, made-in-America concern. Therefore, you are also behind this violence, funding and arming it.* [image: Settlers confront a Border Police officer near Ramallah last month.= ] *Settlers confront a Border Police officer near Ramallah last month. Credit: AFP/ZAIN JAAFAR* *Instead of relying on the reports of your crackpot ambassador =E2=80=93 it= isn't clear how he can serve under you while being convinced that Israel should stretch from the Euphrates to the Nile, perhaps you share his delusions? = =E2=80=93 watch Jeremy Diamond's exemplary report on CNN Friday. * *There you will see how concerned the Israeli government is. There you will see Israeli soldiers behaving like storm troopers, even toward foreign journalists. Soldiers of the Jewish jihad with a "Messiah" patch on their uniforms. All of Judea and Samaria belongs to the Jews," one explains gleefully as his fellow soldiers threaten with their guns and detain Diamond's crew. The soldiers admit that what they are doing to the Palestinians is personal revenge for the death of Yehuda Sherman, a settler from a violent outpost, under entirely unclear circumstances.* *These soldiers have commanders and these commanders have a government, and they all stand behind the pogroms. Their commander, Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth, behaves as if his job is to protect the rioters. He has not court-martialed a single soldier. He, they and many of his officers are "from the same village," in the words of Naomi Shemer's hit song from 1969, with the same apartheid-portending kippa. And not by chance. * *The concerned government took care to increase the number of religious Zionists serving in the IDF Central Command and the Civil Administration. When his soldiers steal flocks of sheep from wretched peasants, the general yawns. When his soldiers clear areas to enable settlers to murder peasants with impunity, Bluth is bored. Did you know, Mr. Secretary, that the Border Policemen who killed a family in their car won't even be questioned? Is this how you think a concerned government looks?* [image: Khaled and Mustafa Bani Odeh, the only two of their family to have survived the fatal shooting in the West Bank, pictured last week.] *Khaled and Mustafa Bani Odeh, the only two of their family to have survived the fatal shooting in the West Bank, pictured last week. Credit: Alex Levak* *Who is concerned? Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, heads of the crime family known as the settlers? We are talking about an Israeli Ku Klux Klan, Mr. Rubio, supported by the government and the army against a backdrop of sickening public apathy. Israelis care only about the reputational damage this violence causes to their state, as if that is the main thing. Look at the battered face of Abdullah Daraghmeh, 75, in the hospital groaning in pain from the beatings of the settlers, in Diamond's report. Only the KKK could beat a helpless old man like this, almost to death.* *This violence has a purpose: to expel the Palestinians from their land. As simple as that. The American inaction constitutes complicity in the crime. Have you heard about the occupation? Tell your president about it, in his language. Ask him if he knows "Who are those guys?" and explain to him that the settlers are motherf---ers and the occupation is a "big problem" that only the United States can fix. If you explain it to him like this, maybe he'll understand. * *He can solve this problem, easy peasy. Without "boots on the ground," without B-2 bombers =E2=80=93 just pressure and sanctions, as the U.S. know= s how to do. And then you and your president will be surprised at how quickly this rotten enterprise will collapse. Only then will we have a new Middle East, and perhaps even a total victory.* --000000000000f41e64064e2a2a39 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
= https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026-03-29/ty-article-opinion/.premium/oh-n= o-rubio-is-concerned-about-settler-violence-now-what/0000019d-3599-d3e9-adb= f-77dfdb9b0000
=

Oh No! Rubio Is Concerned About Settler Viol= ence. Now What?

Gideon Levy=C2=A0= =E2=80=A2 March 29 2026=C2=A0
3D"A
A settler praying near a mattress at a= makeshift outpost.=C2=A0Credit: Ilia Yefimovich/AFP<= /b>

<= font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Mr. Rubio, you are 'c= oncerned' about violence that you are funding and arming. If you were t= ruly concerned, you would find a way to put an end to to it with sanctions.= But you and all your predecessors have made do with long years of hollow, = made-in-America concern, while Palestinians pay in blood

= U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is concerned about settler violence. An= d according to him, he thinks the Israeli government is also concerned abou= t it. If that's the quality of the intelligence available to you, Mr. S= ecretary, then I too am concerned. Very concerned. Either you know nothing = about Israel or you're being disingenuous, it's not clear which is = worse.=C2=A0

The Israeli government is not c= oncerned about the settler violence, it's behind it. It wants this viol= ence because it serves its purposes, and it encourages the army to stoke it= . You should know, Mr. Secretary, that in the eyes of the Israeli governmen= t, and of many Israelis, the criminals of the settlements are the heroes of= our time. Of course they are doing nothing to stop them.

And you, Mr. Rubio, if you were truly concerned you would find a way to pu= t an end to this violence. One painful sanction, and no more violence. But = you and all your predecessors made do with being concerned =E2=80=93 long y= ears of hollow, made-in-America concern. Therefore, you are also behind thi= s violence, funding and arming it.

3D"Se=
<= b>Set= tlers confront a Border Police officer near Ramallah last month.=C2=A0Credit: AFP/ZAIN JAAFAR

Instead of relying o= n the reports of your crackpot ambassador =E2=80=93 it isn't clear how = he can serve under you while being convinced that Israel should stretch fro= m the Euphrates to the Nile, perhaps you share his delusions? =E2=80=93 wat= ch=C2=A0Jeremy Diamond's exemp= lary report on CNN Friday.=C2=A0

There you will see how concerned the Israeli government is. There you will= see Israeli soldiers behaving like storm troopers, even toward foreign jou= rnalists. Soldiers of the Jewish jihad with a "Messiah" patch on = their uniforms. All of Judea and Samaria belongs to the Jews," one exp= lains gleefully as his fellow soldiers threaten with their guns and detain = Diamond's crew. The soldiers admit that what they are doing to the Pale= stinians is personal revenge for the death of Yehuda Sherman, a settler fro= m a violent outpost, under entirely unclear circumstances.

These soldiers have commanders and these commanders have a governme= nt, and they all stand behind the pogroms. Their commander, Maj. Gen. Avi B= luth, behaves as if his job is to protect the rioters. He has not court-mar= tialed a single soldier. He, they and many of his officers are "from t= he same village," in the words of Naomi Shemer's hit song from 196= 9, with the same apartheid-portending kippa. And not by chance.=C2=A0=

The concerned government took care to increase th= e number of religious Zionists serving in the IDF Central Command and the C= ivil Administration. When his soldiers steal flocks of sheep from wretched = peasants, the general yawns. When his soldiers clear areas to enable settle= rs to murder peasants with impunity, Bluth is bored. Did you know, Mr. Secr= etary, that the Border Policemen who killed a family in their car=C2= =A0won't even be questioned? Is = this how you think a concerned government looks?

3D"K=
Khaled and= Mustafa Bani Odeh, the only two of their family to have survived the fatal= shooting in the West Bank, pictured last week.=C2=A0Credit:= Alex Levak

Who is concerned? Itamar Ben-Gvir and Beza= lel Smotrich, heads of the crime family known as the settlers? We are talki= ng about an Israeli Ku Klux Klan, Mr. Rubio, supported by the government an= d the army against a backdrop of sickening public apathy. Israelis care onl= y about the reputational damage this violence causes to their state, as if = that is the main thing. Look at the battered face of Abdullah Daraghmeh, 75= , in the hospital groaning in pain from the beatings of the settlers, in Di= amond's report. Only the KKK could beat a helpless old man like this, a= lmost to death.

=

This violence has a purpose: to expel th= e Palestinians from their land. As simple as that. The American inaction co= nstitutes complicity in the crime. Have you heard about the occupation? Tel= l your president about it, in his language. Ask him if he knows "Who a= re those guys?" and explain to him that the settlers are motherf---ers= and the occupation is a "big problem" that only the United State= s can fix. If you explain it to him like this, maybe he'll understand.<= span>=C2=A0

He can solve this problem, easy peasy.= Without "boots on the ground," w= ithout B-2 bombers =E2=80=93 just pressure and sanctions, as the U.S. knows= how to do. And then you and your president will be surprised at how quickl= y this rotten enterprise will collapse. Only then will we have a new Middle= East, and perhaps even a total victory.


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(3/28/26) X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:31:59 -0000 --00000000000088231d064e2a9888 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="00000000000088231c064e2a9887" --00000000000088231c064e2a9887 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iranian-attack-us-base-saudi-arabia-wou= nds-troops-and-damages-aircraft * *Iranian attack on US base in Saudi Arabia wounds troops and damages aircraft* [image: image.png] [image: A US Army carry team salutes the remains of Army Sergeant Benjamin N Pennington at Dover Air Force Base in Dover, Delaware, 9 March 2026 (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images via AFP)] *An Iranian strike on a US military base in Saudi Arabia wounded at least a dozen American troops and damaged aircraft on Friday, according to media reports.* *The Wall Street Journal cited officials as saying at least one missile and several drones struck Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh. * *The Associated Press reported 15 injuries, including five serious cases, adding that Iran fired six ballistic missiles and 29 drones.* *The attack reportedly damaged multiple refuelling aircraft and an E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System surveillance plane, according to Air and Space Forces Magazine.* *The base has been targeted repeatedly since the US and Israel launched their campaign last month. * New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem DispatchSign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters *Two earlier attacks this week wounded at least 14 troops, the AP said.* *Since the conflict began, 13 US service members have been killed - including one at Prince Sultan Air Base - and more than 300 wounded, according to US Central Command (Centcom).* Iran's missile capabilities *The Friday attack came a day after US President Donald Trump said that 99 percent of Iran's missiles had been destroyed.* *"The problem with the straits is this: let's say we do a great job. We say we got 99 percent [of Iran's missiles]. 1 percent is unacceptable, because 1 percent is a missile going into the hull of a ship that cost a billion dollars," he said during a cabinet meeting. * *Centcom has so far declined to specify how much of Iran's missile or drone capability has been destroyed in its attacks.* *Reuters reported on Friday that the US was certain it had destroyed only around a third of Iran's missiles, despite Trump=E2=80=99s comments.* *According to five people familiar with the US intelligence who spoke to Reuters, the status of around another third is less clear. However, US-Israeli strikes have likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers. * *Iran's drone capability has also likely been reduced by a third, another source said. * *The assessment, which comes one month after the beginning of the US-Israeli assault on Iran, suggests Tehran still retains substantial missile capability, and its ability to retaliate is far from eliminated.* *According to Israeli military officials, Iran had 2,500 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel before the war.* *So far, over 335 missile launchers have been "neutralised", representing 70 percent of Iran's launch capacity, a senior Israeli military official told Reuters.* *Meanwhile, officials have warned that the US and Israel are "burning through" their supply of Tomahawk and interceptor missiles.* *According to officials speaking to The Washington Post, the US has fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles in the four weeks of its war with Iran.* *Only a few hundred of the cruise missiles are manufactured each year. While the Pentagon does not publicly disclose its stockpile, one official told the news outlet the number of Tomahawks left in the Middle East is =E2=80=9Calarmingly low=E2=80=9D.* *Despite dwindling resources, a report by Axios on Thursday said the US Department of Defense was drafting plans for a =E2=80=9Cfinal blow=E2=80= =9D against Iran that includes ground troops and a massive bombing campaign.* --00000000000088231c064e2a9887 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://= www.middleeasteye.net/news/iranian-attack-us-base-saudi-arabia-wounds-troop= s-and-damages-aircraft

Iranian attack on US base in Saudi Arabia wounds troops and damages a= ircraft

3D"image.png"
3D"A

An=C2=A0Iranian=C2=A0strike on a= =C2=A0US=C2= =A0military base in=C2=A0Saudi Arabia=C2=A0wounded at least= a dozen American troops and damaged aircraft on Friday, according to media= reports.

The Wall Street Journal cited officials as sayi= ng at least one missile and several drones struck Prince Sultan Air Base ne= ar Riyadh.=C2=A0

The Associated Press reported 15 injur= ies, including five serious cases, adding that Iran fired six ballistic mis= siles and 29 drones.

The attack reportedly damaged multip= le refuelling aircraft and an E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control Syste= m surveillance plane, according to Air and Space Forces Magazine.

The base has been targeted repeatedly since the US and Israel laun= ched their campaign last month.=C2=A0

New MEE newsletter: Jerus= alem Dispatch

Si= gn up to get the latest insights and analysis on=C2=A0I= srael-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters=

Two earlier attacks this week wounded at least 14 troo= ps, the AP said.

Since the conflict began, 13 US servic= e members have been killed - including one at Prince Sultan Air Base - and = more than 300 wounded, according to US Central Command (Centcom).

Iran's missile capabilities

The Frid= ay attack came a day after US President Donald Trump said that 99 percent o= f Iran's missiles had been destroyed.

"The probl= em with the straits is this: let's say we do a great job. We say we got= 99 percent [of Iran's missiles]. 1 percent is unacceptable, because 1 = percent is a missile going into the hull of a ship that cost a billion doll= ars," he said during a cabinet meeting.=C2=A0

Cent= com has so far declined to specify how much of Iran's missile or drone = capability has been destroyed in its attacks.

Reuters rep= orted on Friday that the US was certain it had destroyed only around a thir= d of Iran's missiles, despite Trump=E2=80=99s comments.

<= p style=3D"max-width:100%">According to five people familiar with the US intelligence who spoke to = Reuters, the status of around another third is less clear. However, US-Isra= eli strikes have likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in unde= rground tunnels and bunkers.=C2=A0

Iran's drone capab= ility has also likely been reduced by a third, another source said.=C2=A0

The assessment, which comes one month after the beginning = of the US-Israeli assault on Iran, suggests Tehran still retains substantia= l missile capability, and its ability to retaliate is far from eliminated.<= /font>

According to Israeli military officials, Iran had 2,500= ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel before the war.

So far, over 335 missile launchers have been "neutralised",= representing 70 percent of Iran's launch capacity, a senior Israeli mi= litary official told Reuters.

= Meanwhile, officials have w= arned that the=C2=A0US=C2=A0and=C2=A0Israel=C2=A0are=C2=A0"burning through" their supply=C2=A0of Tomahawk and inte= rceptor missiles.

According to officials speaking to The= Washington Post, the US=C2=A0has fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missi= les in the four weeks of its war with Iran.

Only a few hu= ndred of the cruise missiles are manufactured each year. While the Pentagon= does not publicly disclose its stockpile, one official told the news outle= t=C2=A0the number of Tomahawks left in the Middle East is =E2=80=9Calarming= ly low=E2=80=9D.

Despite dwindling resources, a report = by Axios=C2=A0on Thursday said the US=C2=A0Department of Defense was drafti= ng plans for a =E2=80=9Cfinal blow=E2=80=9D against=C2=A0Iran=C2=A0that inc= ludes ground troops and a massive bombing campaign.

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List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:55:33 -0000 --000000000000e17dd8064e2aec7e Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Lucrative bets that anticipated Trump's policy surprises warrant scrutiny, experts say By Douglas Gillison , Sa= qib Iqbal Ahmed and Anirba= n Sen March 29, 2026 [image: A foreign tanker carrying Iraqi fuel oil damaged after catching fire in Iraq's territorial waters, near Basra] A foreign tanker carrying Iraqi fuel oil damaged after catching fire in Iraq's territorial waters, following unidentified attacks that targeted two foreign tankers, according to Iraqi port officials, near Basra, Iraq, March 12, 2026. REUTERS/Mohammed Aty Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab - Summary - Companies - Experts see trades as unusual, suspicious - Trades involved options, commodities futures and prediction markets - Oversight of prediction markets in flux as popularity grows WASHINGTON/NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) - Well-timed trades ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump 's major policy surprises during his second term have potentially led to millions of dollars in profits for unknown traders, leading some legal experts to say they should be investigated to protect fair markets and ascertain whether information is leaking. A Reuters review of trading ahead of major Trump administration decisions on tariffs , Venezuela and Iran that led to significant market moves showed at least four instances where the legal experts said it appeared investors knew what would happen shortly before it did. The trades occurred on different =E2=80=8Ctypes of markets a= nd assets =E2=80=93 options, commodities futures and predictions. Given their timing and size, the trades warrant scrutiny to ascertain if they were based on inside government information, said the experts, who include a former enforcement director for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and three academics who have studied insider trading. "It looks deeply suspicious," said Andrew Verstein, an expert in insider trading at UCLA School of Law, adding that while the examples are limited in number, they show patterns you "would expect to see if there were informed trading by government officials and their friends." Aitan Goelman, a former CFTC enforcement director and former federal prosecutor, said such trading would normally draw scrutiny, although he added that insider trading law for commodities markets is complex and still relatively uncharted. The exchanges, CFTC and DOJ would typically find such trades "anomalous and interesting," Goelman said. White House spokesman Kush Desai said government ethics guidelines bar federal employees from profiting off nonpublic information. "Any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible," he said in an emailed =E2=81=A0statement. A CFTC spokesperson said the agency was in constant communication with exchanges "over trades that raise red flags" and that it conducts its own surveillance but did not say whether it had opened an investigation into the wagers. The Securities and Exchange Commission declined to comment, while the Justice Department did not respond to a request for comment. To be sure, some traders may have gotten very lucky or spotted signs of impending action the rest of the market missed, especially with Wall Street firms increasingly leaning on ex-military and national security advisers. Some trades may have been hedges for exposures taking the other side of the bet, which is common in macro-driven commodities portfolios. ENFORCEMENT RECORD IS PATCHY Trading with material and nonpublic information is typically considered illegal if the person has a duty not to, such as through an employment or confidentiality requirement. But the enforcement record is patchy across different assets and exchange venues. While insider trading has been banned for over a decade in commodities and derivatives markets, for example, there is little precedent for bringing such cases in those markets, according to legal experts. Oversight of prediction markets, where some of the bets were made, is in flux. Top SEC officials have said they intend to focus on more bread-and-butter fraud in securities markets, such as insider trading, yet many lawyers, investors and other observers say regulators have taken a softer enforcement stance during Trump=E2=80=99s second administration. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said the trades in question involved a patchwork of regulators like the SEC and CFTC and prediction markets, where the legal basis is murky. "If this was a single actor or a set of cooperating actors, it would require a high level of coordination between =E2=80=8Ca diverse and dedicated =E2=81=A0group of reg= ulators to get to the root of the issue," Sosnick said. "We have seen no evidence that this is occurring." Sosnick added that the recent resignation of the SEC=E2=80=99s enforcement = chief amid reports of frustrations made it =E2=80=9Chard to imagine this becoming a high priority among regulators.= =E2=80=9D [image: Front-month crude oil futures logged a notable uptick in trading volume minutes ahead of President Donald Trump's post on Iran talks] Front-month crude oil futures logged a notable uptick in trading volume minutes ahead of President Donald Trump's post on Iran talksWELL-TIMED TRADES The Reuters review found four prominent instances where trades stood out for their timeliness. In April 2025, options traders made millions in late-breaking bets in the minutes before Trump announced a pause on his blanket =E2=80=9CLiberati= on Day=E2=80=9D tariffs, sparking a 9.5% jump in the S&P 500. In January, an unknown Polymarket punter took in more than $400,000 after betting on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro that month. The anonymous account was created the previous month, and placed more than $30,000 in bets that would pay off if the U.S. invaded Venezuela by January 31. Bets placed on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi ahead of the February 28 killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sparked fresh =E2=81=A0insider trading and ethics concerns. Analytics firm Bubblema= ps identified six accounts that made a combined $1.2 million profit from Polymarket bets that were funded in the hours immediately before the U.S.-Israeli attacks that killed Khamenei. This week, unidentified traders made a $500 million oil bet minutes before Trump sent crude plunging by announcing he was delaying an assault on Iranian energy assets . The bets were placed on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which is owned by CME Group (CME.O), opens new tab . A CME spokesperson declined to comment on the oil futures trades or whether the exchange operator was reviewing the trades. Earlier in March, both Kalshi and Polymarket introduced new rules to crack down on =E2=81=A0potential insider trading on their prediction market platf= orms. A Kalshi spokeswoman said it will continue to "enforce as necessary and iterate on our existing technologies and partnerships," adding that bets of the magnitude of the oil futures transactions on March 23 would have been flagged if they had been placed on Kalshi's platform. In an interview, Polymarket's chief legal officer, Neal Kumar, said Polymarket monitors and tracks all transactions that go through its U.S. platform in real time, and that the company has a set of controls that can quickly crack down on suspicious trading activity. [image: Two batches of S&P 500 call options surged from $2.8 million to over $31 million as markets rallied.] Two batches of S&P 500 call options surged from $2.8 million to over $31 million as markets rallied. Some of =E2=81=A0the experts said the sheer size and binary nature of some = of the bets raised the possibility that people may have had advance knowledge. Monday's $500 million oil market trade, for example, indicates extreme conviction as well as deep pockets, some of the experts said. "When you're dealing with bets on unique events and things like that, those do raise a lot more suspicion that somebody has some specific inside information," said David Rosenfeld, former co-head of enforcement at the SEC's New York office. Reporting by Douglas Gillison in Washington and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Anirban Sen and Chris Prentice in New York; Editing by Michelle Price, Paritosh Bansal and Matthew Lewis [image: Douglas Gillison] Douglas Gillison Thomson Reuters Douglas Gillison covers financial regulation for Reuters, focusing on securities regulation, consumer finance and prudential oversight. He was previously a Congo-focused anticorruption investigator for a transparency organization and has covered war crimes trials and human rights. His reporting has sparked a foreign bribery probe of a publicly traded mining company. - - [image: Anirban Sen] Anirban Sen Thomson Reuters Anirban Sen is the Editor in Charge of Market Structure at Reuters in New York where he leads the news agency's coverage of stock exchanges, and market-making firms including Jane Street and Citadel Securities. Previously Anirban was M&A Editor at Reuters, leading a team of reporters who regularly broke market-moving news about the biggest deals in corporate America. Some of his scoops have included Mars' $36 billion deal for snack maker Kellanova, design software firm Synopsys' $35 billion deal for Ansys, and buyout firm GTCR=E2=80=99s $18.5 billion deal for merchant services pro= vider Worldpay. In 2023, Anirban was part of a Reuters team that won a Gerald Loeb Award for the agency's coverage of the collapse of FTX. After starting with Reuters in Bangalore in 2009, he left in 2013 to work as a technology deals reporter in several leading business news outlets in India, including The Economic Times and Mint. Anirban rejoined Reuters in 2019 as Editor in Charge, Finance, to lead a team of reporters in India, covering everything from investment banking to venture capital. --000000000000e17dd8064e2aec7e Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable --000000000000fbbec8064e306006-- From cwfresidence@gmail.com Sun Mar 29 14:27:52 2026 Return-Path: X-Original-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Delivered-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Received: from mlm0.listserve.net (mlm0.listserve.net [161.35.233.68]) by mlm2.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id 6222CB0851 for ; Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:27:52 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 mlm2.listserve.net 6222CB0851 Authentication-Results: mlm2.listserve.net; dkim=pass (2048-bit key) header.d=gmail.com header.i=@gmail.com header.b="aJVEIFzL" Received: by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) id 58E84BD0A6; Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:27:52 -0700 (PDT) Delivered-To: salon@listserve.com Received: from mail-ej1-f44.google.com (mail-ej1-f44.google.com [209.85.218.44]) by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 53758BD0A5 for ; 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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:27:50 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <556503563.1206196.1774745265237.ref@mail.yahoo.com> <556503563.1206196.1774745265237@mail.yahoo.com> <1441310791.1197897.1774745311321@mail.yahoo.com> In-Reply-To: <1441310791.1197897.1774745311321@mail.yahoo.com> From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:27:34 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzBq1imvtKK8ZWCbSpz8prielqcZ2Hl9T5QTy90br0zcrx6IdEeHGjgXud4 Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000fd75a2064e3067ca" Subject: [Salon] From Gaza to Iran, Rise of Conscientious Objectors Marks U.S. Soldiers' "Shift in Consciousness" X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 21:27:52 -0000 --000000000000fd75a2064e3067ca Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmsIRIAPWz0 >From Gaza to Iran, Rise of Conscientious Objectors Marks U.S. Soldiers' "Shift in Consciousness" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GckKhP6bmA US Troops Are REFUSING to Fight in Iran War --000000000000fd75a2064e3067ca Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
htt= ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DxmsIRIAPWz0
From Gaza to Iran, Rise o= f Conscientious Objectors Marks U.S. Soldiers' "Shift in Conscious= ness"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D9GckKhP6bmA
US Troops Are REFUSING to Fight in Iran War
<= /div>
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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:49:49 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <54e0b82b-8d2e-459b-b2ae-420c65bbab86@gmail.com> In-Reply-To: <54e0b82b-8d2e-459b-b2ae-420c65bbab86@gmail.com> From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:49:33 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzATcYcNmTi7SkVV78dl340RmvtSdKPLRu5Uthj3zmOln6BkyxvM4Eei4b8 Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0000000000009e8dd8064e30b622" Subject: [Salon] 'God Rejects War': Pope Leo Denounces War and Its Religious Justification X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 21:49:52 -0000 --0000000000009e8dd8064e30b622 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable FM: John Whitbeck The article transmitted below reports that, on the same day that, "for the first time in centuries, the heads of the [Roman Catholic] Church were prevented from celebrating the Palm Sunday Mass at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre," the American pope has publicly rebuked the bloodthirsty, Crusader-tatooed American Secretary of War and other religion-perverting American warmongers for their profoundly un-Christian enthusiasm for war. https://www.palestinechronicle.com/god-rejects-war-pope-leo-denounces-war-a= nd-its-religious-justification =E2=80=98God Rejects War=E2=80=99: Pope Leo Denounces War and Its Religious= Justification March 29, 2026 Pope Leo XIV. (Photo: Edgar Beltr=C3=A1n, The Pilla,r=E2=80=AFvia Wikimedia= Commons) *By Palestine Chronicle Staff * Pope Leo denounced war and its religious justification as Israel blocks Christian leaders from the Holy Sepulchre during Palm Sunday celebrations. *Key Takeaways* - Pope Leo rejects use of Christianity to justify war, calling for ceasefire. - Remarks contrast with US officials invoking religious language in support of war. - Israel restricts Christian access to Holy Sepulchre during major religious observance. *Pope Leo: =E2=80=98God Rejects War=E2=80=99* Pope Leo delivered a direct rebuke of war and its religious justification on Palm Sunday, warning against invoking Christianity to legitimize violence. =E2=80=9CThis is our God: Jesus, King of Peace, who rejects war, whom no on= e can use to justify war,=E2=80=9D he said, according to Reuters news agency, add= ing that Christ =E2=80=9Cdoes not listen to the prayers of those who wage war. =E2=80=9C(Jesus) does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but = rejects them, saying: =E2=80=98Even though you make many prayers, I will not listen= : your hands are full of blood=E2=80=99,=E2=80=9D he said, citing a Bible passage. Without naming specific leaders, the pope=E2=80=99s remarks come amid growi= ng criticism of the US-Israeli war on Iran. He warned that Christians in the Middle East =E2=80=9Care suffering the consequences of an atrocious conflic= t,=E2=80=9D raising concerns that many may not be able to observe key religious occasions. Leo has repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire, stressing that military airstrikes are indiscriminate and should be banned. The pope=E2=80=99s message stands in contrast to rhetoric emerging from Was= hington, where some officials have framed the war in moral or religious terms. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has led Christian prayer services at the Pentagon, recently prayed for =E2=80=9Coverwhelming violence of action = against those who deserve no mercy.=E2=80=9D Leo appeared to counter such narratives by invoking the example of Jesus before his crucifixion. =E2=80=9CHe did not arm himself, or defend himself, or fight any war,=E2=80= =9D the pope said. =E2=80=9CHe revealed the gentle face of God, who always rejects viole= nce.=E2=80=9D *Holy Sepulchre Restrictions* These developments come as Israeli occupation authorities imposed restrictions on Christian worship in occupied Jerusalem. According to a joint statement released by the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem and the Custody of the Holy Land, Israeli occupation forces prevented Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa and Father Francesco Ielpo from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre on Sunday morning. The two church leaders were reportedly stopped =E2=80=9Cwhile proceeding pr= ivately and without any characteristics of a procession or ceremonial act=E2=80=9D = as they made their way to celebrate Palm Sunday Mass, and were =E2=80=9Ccompelled t= o turn back.=E2=80=9D The statement stressed that =E2=80=9Cfor the first time in centuries, the H= eads of the Church were prevented from celebrating the Palm Sunday Mass at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.=E2=80=9D It described the incident as =E2=80=9Ca grave precedent=E2=80=9D that disre= gards =E2=80=9Cthe sensibilities of billions of people around the world who, during this week, look to Jerusalem.=E2=80=9D *(PC, Reuters, Vatican News)* --0000000000009e8dd8064e30b622 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
FM: John Whitbeck

The article transmitted below reports that, on the same day that, "for the first time in centuries, the heads of the [Roman Catholic] Church were prevented from celebrating the Palm Sunday Mass at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre," the American pope has publicly rebuked the bloodthirsty, Crusader-tatooed American Secretary of War and other religion-perverting American warmongers for their profoundly un-Christian enthusiasm for war.

http= s://www.palestinechronicle.com/god-rejects-war-pope-leo-denounces-war-and-i= ts-religious-justification
=20 =20

=E2=80=98God Rejects War=E2=80=99: Pope Leo Denounces War and Its Religious Justification

=20
3D"" Pope Leo XIV. (Photo: Edgar Beltr=C3=A1n, The Pilla,r=E2=80=AFvia Wikimed= ia Commons)=20

By Palestine Chro= nicle Staff =C2=A0

Pope Leo denounced war and its religious justification as Israel blocks Christian leaders from the Holy Sepulchre during Palm Sunday celebrations.

Key Takeaways

  • = Pope Leo rejects use of Christianity to justify war, calling for ceasefire.
  • = Remarks contrast with US officials invoking religious language in support of war.
  • = Israel restricts Christian access to Holy Sepulchre during major religious observance.

Pope Leo: =E2=80=98God Rejects W= ar=E2=80=99

Pop= e Leo delivered a direct rebuke of war and its religious justification on Palm Sunday, warning against invoking Christianity to legitimize violence.

=E2= =80=9CThis is our God: Jesus, King of Peace, who rejects war, whom no one can use to justify war,=E2=80=9D= he said, according to Reuters news agency, adding that Christ =E2=80=9Cdoes not listen to the praye= rs of those who wage war.=C2=A0

=E2= =80=9C(Jesus) does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them, saying: =E2=80=98Even though you make many prayers, I will not listen: your hands are full of blood=E2=80=99,=E2= =80=9D he said, citing a Bible passage.

Wit= hout naming specific leaders, the pope=E2=80=99s remar= ks come amid growing criticism of the US-Israeli war on Iran. He warned that Christians in the Middle East =E2=80=9Care suffering the consequenc= es of an atrocious conflict,=E2=80=9D raising concerns = that many may not be able to observe key religious occasions.

Leo has repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire, stressing that military airstrikes are indiscriminate and should be banned.

The pope=E2=80=99s message stands in contrast to rhet= oric emerging from Washington, where some officials have framed the war in moral or religious terms.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has led Christian prayer services at the Pentagon, recently prayed for =E2=80=9Coverwhelming violenc= e of action against those who deserve no mercy.=E2=80= =9D

Leo appeared to counter such narratives by invoking the example of Jesus before his crucifixion.

=E2= =80=9CHe did not arm himself, or defend himself, or fight any war,=E2=80=9D the pope said. =E2=80=9CH= e revealed the gentle face of God, who always rejects violence.=E2=80=9D

Holy Sepulchre Restrictions<= /font>

The= se developments come as Israeli occupation authorities imposed restrictions on Christian worship in occupied Jerusalem.

Acc= ording to a joint statement released by the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem and the Custody of the Holy Land, Israeli occupation forces prevented Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa and Father Francesco Ielpo from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre on Sunday morning.

The two church leaders were reportedly stopped =E2=80=9Cwhile proceeding privately and without a= ny characteristics of a procession or ceremonial act=E2=80=9D as they made their way to celebrate = Palm Sunday Mass, and were =E2=80=9Ccompelled to turn back.=E2=80=9D

The statement stressed that =E2=80=9Cfor the first ti= me in centuries, the Heads of the Church were prevented from celebrating the Palm Sunday Mass at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.=E2=80= =9D

It described the incident as =E2=80=9Ca grave preced= ent=E2=80=9D that disregards =E2=80=9Cthe sensibilities of bil= lions of people around the world who, during this week, look to Jerusalem.=E2=80=9D

= (PC, Reuters, Vatican News)

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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 15:07:31 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 18:07:15 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzCXil57Ojjc1TQ873E3sYrG8OhS0YaphN-yo_M4x8qR0fxjsN-WedF1stI Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000eac752064e30f542" Subject: [Salon] =?utf-8?q?South_Africa=E2=80=99s_Pelindaba_blueprint=3A_?= =?utf-8?q?the_way_to_end_the_Middle_East_nuclear_crisis?= X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 22:07:34 -0000 --000000000000eac752064e30f542 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable https://businessreport.co.za/markets/2026-03-23-south-africas-pelindaba-blu= eprint-the-way-to-end-the-middle-east-nuclear-crisis/ South Africa=E2=80=99s Pelindaba blueprint: the way to end the Middle East = nuclear crisis H=C3=BCgo Kr=C3=BCger|Updated 3/23/26 As Israel bombs Bushehr and Iran strikes Dimona, Pretoria must step forward, before Iran=E2=80=99s JCPOA compliance and Supreme Leader=E2=80=99= s fatwa vanish forever. Image: Ibrahim Amro / AFP The escalating conflict in the Middle East has entered a perilous new phase following the murder of Iran=E2=80=99s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamen= ei, in a joint U.S.=E2=80=93 Israeli airstrike in late February 2026. In the weeks since, a series of attacks involving sensitive nuclear sites has raised the specter of direct confrontation spiraling into nuclear catastrophe. - On 5 March 2026, Iran launched a ballistic missile strike against the U.S.-UK base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, demonstrating a striking range of nearly 4,000 km . Th= e base is widely believed to host American nuclear weapons, as documented = by the Federation of American Scientists in reports = on U.S. bomber deployments there. - Around 18 March, Israel conducted a projectile strike approximately 350 metres from the reactor building at Iran=E2=80=99s Bushehr Nuclear Power= Plant . The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that there was no damage to the reactor core, no injuries, and no radiological release, wh= ile reiterating its longstanding warning against attacks on nuclear faciliti= es in its guidance on nuclear safety and security. - On 21 March, a joint U.S.=E2=80=93Israeli airstrike struck Iran=E2=80=99= s Natanz enrichment facility (Shahid Ahmadi Roshan site), causing damage but again no reported radioactive leakage . Natanz is one of Iran=E2=80=99s primary uranium enrichment sit= es under IAEA monitoring. - In immediate retaliation, Iran launched missiles that struck the southern Israeli town of Dimona =E2=80=94home to the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, widely believed to ho= use Israel=E2=80=99s undeclared nuclear arsenal . Taken together, these tit-for-tat assaults on sensitive nuclear locations=E2=80=94Bushehr, Natanz, Dimona, and the attack on Diego Garcia = =E2=80=94 underscore a dangerous shift: nuclear infrastructure is no longer merely strategic leverage, but an active battlefield. The risk of radiological disaster, miscalculation, or wider war is no longer theoretical. For years, Iran formally adhered to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) , the 2015 nuclear agreement with the world powers. Until the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, the IAE= A repeatedly verified Iran=E2=80=99s compliance with key restrictions, as detailed in its JCPOA reports archive. In parallel, Ayatollah Khamenei had issued a religious fatwa in the early 2000s prohibiting the development, production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons, declaring them incompatible with Islamic principles. This ruling was long cited as both a doctrinal and political constraint on weaponization. With Khamenei now dead and his reported successor, Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to reaffirm the edict and therefore this restraint is uncertain. Amid this accelerating crisis, a viable diplomatic off-ramp already exists: the establishment of a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction (WMDFZ). The concept dates back to UN General Assembly Resolution 3263 (XXIX) in 1974 , co-sponsored by Egypt and Iran under the Shah. It was later embedded in the 1995 NPT Review Conference=E2= =80=99s Resolution on the Middle East , which called for an =E2=80=9Ceffectively verifiable=E2=80=9D zone free of nuclear, chemical, an= d biological weapons, as well as their delivery systems. More recently, UN General Assembly decision 73/546 (2018) established annual conferences on the issue. The sixth session in November 2025 produced a working report but no binding agreement, as tracked by the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs . A comprehensive treaty would require all regional states =E2=80=94 includin= g Israel and Iran =E2=80=94 to renounce nuclear weapons, accept full-scope IAEA safe= guards, and verifiably dismantle any existing capabilities or stockpiles. It would also cover delivery systems and other weapons of mass destruction, removing the strategic rationale behind strikes on sites like Bushehr, Natanz, and Dimona, while providing mutual security guarantees. South Africa offers a compelling precedent, and with its non-aligned stance, it is ideally placed to confront the issue at an international stage. After dismantling its own nuclear arsenal in the early 1990s, Nelson Mandela=E2=80=99s government helped lead negotiations for the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (Treaty of Pelindaba) . Signed in 1996 and entering into force in 2009, the treaty bans nuclear weapons across the continent, as set out in the full treaty text. Mauritius ratified the treaty in 1996 , reinforcing its relevance given its sovereignty claim over the Chagos Archipelago, which includes Diego Garcia, a matter addressed in the International Court of Justice advisory opinion . Under existing law it can be requested to inspect the island and bring it into compliance with IAEA safeguards. The current strikes on Bushehr, Natanz, and Dimona are however not isolated incidents. They are symptoms of a deeper structural problem: a nuclearized regional standoff with few guardrails and increasing willingness to test limits. The erosion of previous constraints, whether the JCPOA framework or religious prohibitions, have now only made the situation worse, which is why the establishment of a Middle East Nuclear Weapon Free Zone becomes an imperative. The principal obstacle in establishing the the treaty, however, is unlikely to be Iran, which has long co-sponsored the proposal at the United Nations. Rather, resistance is expected from Israel and what is widely described as the =E2=80=9CIsraeli Lobby =E2=80= =9D. A binding agreement would require Israel to formally acknowledge and dismantle its undeclared nuclear arsenal. Such a step would carry immediate legal consequences. Under U.S. law=E2=80=94specifically the Symington and G= lenn Amendments =E2=80=94military assistance must be terminated to non-NPT states that possess nuclear weapons or engage in unsafeguarded nuclear activities, as codified in 22 U.S.C. =C2=A7 2799aa-1 . In this context, the barrier to a nuclear-free Middle East is not the absence of solutions, but the persistence of choices that defer them. The region is not drifting toward danger=E2=80=94it is being led there; Each st= rike on a nuclear site lowers the threshold for the next, until the unthinkable becomes routine. The longer diplomacy is postponed, the more likely it is that it will be overtaken by events that neither Israel, Iran or America can control. *H=C3=BCgo Kr=C3=BCger is a YouTube podcaster, writer, and civil nuclear en= gineer who has worked on a variety of energy related infrastructure projects ranging from Nuclear Power, LNG and Renewable Technologies. He holds a Master=E2=80= =99s in Nuclear Civil Engineering from =C3=89cole Sp=C3=A9ciale des Travaux Publics= , du b=C3=A2timent et de l=E2=80=99industrie, Paris and a bachelor=E2=80=99s fro= m the University of Pretoria.* H=C3=BCgo Kr=C3=BCger is a YouTube podcaster, writer and civil nuclear engi= neer Image: FIle. --000000000000eac752064e30f542 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://businessreport.co.za/markets/2026-03-23-south-africas-pelin= daba-blueprint-the-way-to-end-the-middle-east-nuclear-crisis/

<= /div>

South Africa=E2=80=99s Pelindaba blueprint: the= way to end the Middle East nuclear crisis

H=C3=BCgo Kr=C3=BCger|Updated 3= /23/26
=

A= s Israel bombs Bushehr and Iran strikes Dimona, Pretoria must step forward,= before Iran=E2=80=99s JCPOA compliance and Supreme Leader=E2=80=99s fatwa = vanish forever.

Image:= =C2=A0Ibrahim Amro / AFP

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has entered a perilous new= phase following the murder of Iran=E2=80=99s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali= Khamenei, in a joint U.S.=E2=80=93 Israeli airstrike in late February 2026= .

In the weeks since, a series of att= acks involving sensitive nuclear sites has raised the specter of direct con= frontation spiraling into nuclear catastrophe.

  • On 5 March= 2026, Iran launched a ballistic missile strike against the U.S.-UK base at= =C2=A0Dieg= o Garcia=C2=A0in the Indian Ocean= , demonstrating a striking range of nearly 4,000 km . The base is widely be= lieved to host American nuclear weapons, as documented by the=C2=A0<= a href=3D"https://fas.org/publications-archive?i=3D15&pt=3Dblog&s= =3D" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;color:inherit;text-decoration-line:none= ;background-image:linear-gradient(rgb(130,180,248),rgb(130,180,248));backgr= ound-position:100% 100%;background-repeat:no-repeat;background-size:100% 2p= x">Federation of American Scientists=C2=A0in reports on U.S. bomber deployments there.

  • Around 18 March, Israel conducted a projectile = strike approximately 350 metres from the reactor building at Iran=E2=80=99s= =C2=A0Bushehr Nu= clear Power Plant. The=C2=A0International Atomic= Energy Agency (IAEA)=C2=A0confir= med that there was no damage to the reactor core, no injuries, and no radio= logical release, while reiterating its longstanding warning against attacks= on nuclear facilities in its guidance on nuclear safety and security.

  • On 21 March, a joint U.S.=E2= =80=93Israeli airstrike struck Iran=E2=80=99s=C2=A0Natanz enrichment facility=C2=A0(Shahid Ahmadi Roshan site), causing dam= age but again no reported radioactive leakage . Natanz is one of Iran=E2=80= =99s primary uranium enrichment sites under IAEA monitoring.

  • In immediate retaliation, Iran launched = missiles that struck the southern Israeli town of=C2=A0Dimona=E2=80=94home = to the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, widely believed to house= Israel=E2=80=99s undeclared nuclear arsenal .

Taken together,= these tit-for-tat assaults on sensitive nuclear locations=E2=80=94Bushehr,= Natanz, Dimona, and the attack on Diego Garcia =E2=80=94 underscore a dang= erous shift: nuclear infrastructure is no longer merely strategic leverage,= but an active battlefield. The risk of radiological disaster, miscalculati= on, or wider war is no longer theoretical.

For years, Iran formally adhere= d to the=C2=A0J= oint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear agreement with the world powers. Until the U.S. = withdrawal in 2018, the=C2=A0IAEA repeatedly = verified Iran=E2=80=99s compliance=C2=A0with key restrictions, as detailed in its JCPOA reports archive.

In parallel, Ayatollah Khamenei had issued a religious=C2=A0fatwa=C2=A0in the early 2000s prohibiting the develop= ment, production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons, declaring them i= ncompatible with Islamic principles. This ruling was long cited as both a d= octrinal and political constraint on weaponization.

With Khamenei now dead and his repo= rted successor, Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to reaffirm the edict and therefor= e this restraint is uncertain.

Amid this accelerating crisis, a viable dip= lomatic off-ramp already exists: the establishment of a Middle East zone fr= ee of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction (WMDFZ). The co= ncept dates back to=C2=A0UN General Assembly Resolution 3263 (XXIX) in 1974, co-sponsored by Egypt and Iran under the Shah. It= was later embedded in the=C2=A01995 NPT Review Conference=E2=80=99s Resolution on th= e Middle East, which called for a= n =E2=80=9Ceffectively verifiable=E2=80=9D zone free of nuclear, chemical, = and biological weapons, as well as their delivery systems.

More rec= ently,=C2=A0UN General As= sembly decision 73/546 (2018)=C2= =A0established annual conferences on the issue. The sixth session in Novemb= er 2025 produced a working report but no binding agreement, as tracked by t= he=C2=A0UN Office for Disarmam= ent Affairs.

<= /div>

A comprehensive t= reaty would require all regional states =E2=80=94 including Israel and Iran= =E2=80=94 to renounce nuclear weapons, accept full-scope IAEA safeguards, = and verifiably dismantle any existing capabilities or stockpiles. It would = also cover delivery systems and other weapons of mass destruction, removing= the strategic rationale behind strikes on sites like Bushehr, Natanz, and = Dimona, while providing mutual security guarantees.

South Africa offers a = compelling precedent, and with its non-aligned stance, it is ideally placed= to confront the issue at an international stage. After dismantling its own= nuclear arsenal in the early 1990s, Nelson Mandela=E2=80=99s government he= lped lead negotiations for the=C2=A0African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (Treaty o= f Pelindaba). Signed in 1996 and = entering into force in 2009, the treaty bans nuclear weapons across the con= tinent, as set out in the full treaty text.

Mauritius ratified the treaty in 1996, reinforcing its relevance given its sovereignty claim over the Ch= agos Archipelago, which includes Diego Garcia, a matter addressed in the=C2= =A0International Court of= Justice advisory opinion. Under = existing law it can be requested to inspect the island and bring it into co= mpliance with IAEA safeguards.

The current strikes on Bushehr, Natanz, and Dimona are h= owever not isolated incidents. They are symptoms of a deeper structural pro= blem: a nuclearized regional standoff with few guardrails and increasing wi= llingness to test limits. The erosion of previous constraints, whether the = JCPOA framework or religious prohibitions, have now only made the situation= worse, which is why the establishment of a Middle East Nuclear Weapon Free= Zone becomes an imperative.

The principal obstacle in establishing the th= e treaty, however, is unlikely to be Iran, which has long co-sponsored the = proposal at the United Nations. Rather, resistance is expected from Israel = and what is widely described as the =E2=80=9CIsraeli Lobby=E2=80=9D. A binding agreement would req= uire Israel to formally acknowledge and dismantle its undeclared nuclear ar= senal. Such a step would carry immediate legal consequences. Under U.S. law= =E2=80=94specifically the=C2=A0Symington and Glenn Amendments= =E2=80=94military assistance must be terminated to non-NPT states that poss= ess nuclear weapons or engage in unsafeguarded nuclear activities, as codif= ied in=C2=A02= 2 U.S.C. =C2=A7 2799aa-1.<= /p>

In this context, the barrier to a nuc= lear-free Middle East is not the absence of solutions, but the persistence = of choices that defer them. The region is not drifting toward danger=E2=80= =94it is being led there; Each strike on a nuclear site lowers the threshol= d for the next, until the unthinkable becomes routine. The longer diplomacy= is postponed, the more likely it is that it will be overtaken by events th= at neither Israel, Iran or America can control.

H=C3=BCgo Kr=C3=BCger is a YouTube podcaster, writer, and civil nuclea= r engineer who has worked on a variety of energy related infrastructure pro= jects ranging from Nuclear Power, LNG and Renewable Technologies. He holds = a Master=E2=80=99s in Nuclear Civil Engineering from =C3=89cole Sp=C3=A9cia= le des Travaux Publics, du b=C3=A2timent et de l=E2=80=99industrie, Paris a= nd a bachelor=E2=80=99s from the University of Pretoria.

H=C3=BCgo = Kr=C3=BCger is a YouTube podcaster, writer and civil nuclear engineer

Image:=C2=A0FIle.

--000000000000eac752064e30f542--

Lucrative bets that anticipated Trump's policy = surprises warrant scrutiny, experts say

By=C2=A0Douglas Gillison,=C2=A0Saqib= Iqbal Ahmed=C2=A0and=C2=A0= Anirban Sen
March 29, 2026
3D"A
A foreign tanker carrying Iraqi fuel= oil damaged after catching fire in Iraq's territorial waters, followin= g unidentified attacks that targeted two foreign tankers, according to Iraq= i port officials, near Basra, Iraq, March 12, 2026. REUTERS/Mohammed Aty=C2= =A0Purchase Licensing=C2=A0Rights, opens new tab
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) - Well-timed trades= ahead of U.S. President=C2=A0Donald Trump= 's major policy surprises during his second term have potentially led t= o millions of dollars in profits for unknown traders, leading some legal ex= perts to say they should be investigated to protect fair markets and ascert= ain whether information is leaking.
A Reuters review of trading ahead of major = Trump administration decisions on=C2=A0tariffs,=C2=A0Venezuela=C2=A0and=C2=A0Iran=C2=A0that led to significant market moves showe= d at least four instances where the legal experts said it appeared investor= s knew what would happen shortly before it did. The trades occurred on diff= erent =E2=80=8Ctypes of markets and assets =E2=80=93 options, commodities f= utures and predictions.
Given their timing = and size, the trades warrant scrutiny to ascertain if they were based on in= side government information, said the experts, who include a former enforce= ment director for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and three academ= ics who have studied insider trading.
"It looks deeply suspicious," s= aid Andrew Verstein, an expert in insider trading at UCLA School of Law, ad= ding that while the examples are limited in number, they show patterns you = "would expect to see if there were informed trading by government offi= cials and their friends."
Aitan Goelman, a former CFTC enforcement directo= r and former federal prosecutor, said such trading would normally draw scru= tiny, although he added that insider trading law for commodities markets is= complex and still relatively uncharted.
The exch= anges, CFTC and DOJ would typically find such trades "anomalous and in= teresting," Goelman said.
White House spokesman Kush Desai said government= ethics guidelines bar federal employees from profiting off nonpublic infor= mation. "Any implication that Administration officials are engaged in = such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible," he said= in an emailed =E2=81=A0statement.
A CFTC spokesperson said the agency was in c= onstant communication with exchanges "over trades that raise red flags= " and that it conducts its own surveillance but did not say whether it= had opened an investigation into the wagers.
The Securities and Exchange Commi= ssion declined to comment, while the Justice Department did not respond to = a request for comment.
To be sure, some traders may have gotten very lucky or = spotted signs of impending action the rest of the market missed, especially= =C2=A0with Wall Street firms increasingly lean= ing=C2=A0on ex-military and national security advisers. Some trades may= have been hedges for exposures taking the other side of the bet, which is = common in macro-driven commodities portfolios.

EN= FORCEMENT RECORD IS PATCHY

Trading with material and nonpublic information is ty= pically considered illegal if the person has a duty not to, such as through= an employment or confidentiality requirement. But the enforcement record i= s patchy across different assets and exchange venues.
While insider trading has= been banned for over a decade in commodities and derivatives markets, for = example, there is little precedent for bringing such cases in those markets= , according to legal experts. Oversight of prediction markets, where some o= f the bets were made, is in flux.
Top SEC officials have said they intend to fo= cus on more bread-and-butter fraud in securities markets, such as insider t= rading, yet many lawyers, investors and other observers say regulators have= taken=C2=A0a sof= ter enforcement stance=C2=A0during Trump=E2=80=99s second administratio= n.
Steve Sosnick, chief st= rategist at Interactive Brokers, said the trades in question involved a pat= chwork of regulators like the SEC and CFTC and prediction markets, where th= e legal basis is murky. "If this was a single actor or a set of cooper= ating actors, it would require a high level of coordination between =E2=80= =8Ca diverse and dedicated =E2=81=A0group of regulators to get to the root = of the issue," Sosnick said. "We have seen no evidence that this = is occurring."
Sosnick added that the recent= resignation of the SEC=E2=80=99s enforcement chief=C2=A0amid reports of frustrations=C2=A0made it =E2=80=9Cha= rd to imagine this becoming a high priority among regulators.=E2=80=9D
=
3D"Front-month
Front-month crude oil futures logged a nota= ble uptick in trading volume minutes ahead of President Donald Trump's = post on Iran talks

WELL-TIMED TRADES

The Reuters review found=C2=A0four prominent instances=C2=A0where trades stood out for t= heir timeliness. In April 2025, options traders=C2=A0made millions in late-breaking bets=C2=A0in the minutes before Tru= mp announced a pause on his blanket =E2=80=9CLiberation Day=E2=80=9D tariff= s, sparking a 9.5% jump in the S&P 500.
In January, an unknown Polymarket p= unter took in more than $400,000 after betting on the=C2=A0ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro=C2=A0that mon= th. The anonymous account was created the previous month, and placed more t= han $30,000 in bets that would pay off if the U.S. invaded Venezuela by Jan= uary 31.
Bets placed on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi ahead of = the February 28=C2=A0killing of Iranian Supr= eme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei=C2=A0sparked fresh =E2=81=A0insider t= rading and ethics concerns. Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six accoun= ts that made a combined $1.2 million profit from Polymarket bets that were = funded in the hours immediately before the U.S.-Israeli attacks that killed= Khamenei.
This week, unidentified traders made=C2=A0a $500 million oil bet=C2=A0minutes before Trump sent crude pl= unging by announcing he was=C2=A0d= elaying an assault on Iranian energy assets. The bets were placed on th= e New York Mercantile Exchange, which is owned by CME Group=C2=A0(CME.O), opens new tab.
A CME spokesperson decline= d to comment on the oil futures trades or whether the exchange operator was= reviewing the trades.
Earlier in March, both Kalshi and Polymarket introduced= new rules to crack down on =E2=81=A0potential insider trading on their pre= diction market platforms. A Kalshi spokeswoman said it will continue to &qu= ot;enforce as necessary and iterate on our existing technologies and partne= rships," adding that bets of the magnitude of the oil futures transact= ions on March 23 would have been flagged if they had been placed on Kalshi&= #39;s platform.
In an interview, Polymarket's chief legal officer, Neal Kum= ar, said Polymarket monitors and tracks all transactions that go through it= s U.S. platform in real time, and that the company has a set of controls th= at can quickly crack down on suspicious trading activity.
3D"Two
Two bat= ches of S&P 500 call options surged from $2.8 million to over $31 milli= on as markets rallied.
Some of =E2=81=A0the experts said the sheer size and binary na= ture of some of the bets raised the possibility that people may have had ad= vance knowledge. Monday's $500 million oil market trade, for example, i= ndicates extreme conviction as well as deep pockets, some of the experts sa= id.
= "When you're dealing with bets on unique events and things like th= at, those do raise a lot more suspicion that somebody has some specific ins= ide information," said David Rosenfeld, former co-head of enforcement = at the SEC's New York office.

Reporting by Douglas= Gillison in Washington and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Anirban Sen and Chris Prenti= ce in New York; Editing by Michelle Price, Paritosh Bansal and Matthew Lewi= s

3D"Douglas
Dougla= s Gillison

Thomson Reuters

Douglas Gillison covers financial regulation for Reuter= s, focusing on securities regulation, consumer finance and prudential overs= ight. He was previously a Congo-focused anticorruption investigator for a t= ransparency organization and has covered war crimes trials and human rights= . His reporting has sparked a foreign bribery probe of a publicly traded mi= ning company.

3D"Anirban
Anirban Sen

Thomson Reuters

Anirban Sen is the Edito= r in Charge of Market Structure at Reuters in New York where he leads the n= ews agency's coverage of stock exchanges, and market-making firms inclu= ding Jane Street and Citadel Securities. Previously Anirban was M&A Edi= tor at Reuters, leading a team of reporters who regularly broke market-movi= ng news about the biggest deals in corporate America. Some of his scoops ha= ve included Mars' $36 billion deal for snack maker Kellanova, design so= ftware firm Synopsys' $35 billion deal for Ansys, and buyout firm GTCR= =E2=80=99s $18.5 billion deal for merchant services provider Worldpay. In 2= 023, Anirban was part of a Reuters team that won a Gerald Loeb Award for th= e agency's coverage of the collapse of FTX. After starting with Reuters= in Bangalore in 2009, he left in 2013 to work as a technology deals report= er in several leading business news outlets in India, including The Economi= c Times and Mint. Anirban rejoined Reuters in 2019 as Editor in Charge, Fin= ance, to lead a team of reporters in India, covering everything from invest= ment banking to venture capital.

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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 10:11:07 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 13:10:51 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzCOYw_wE67_XbAQfOPBp6LDipFVQ7qLJ7XOJWBiBbzOXkGYjBRpVbogCuA Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000e9b20b064e2cd12a" Subject: [Salon] =?utf-8?q?AWACS=27_Destruction_is_a_Major_Loss_for_US_Mi?= =?utf-8?q?litary_=E2=80=93_Ex-DoW_Analyst?= X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:11:10 -0000 --000000000000e9b20b064e2cd12a Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://sputnikglobe.com/20260329/awacs-destruction-is-a-major-loss-for-us= -military-ex-dow-analyst-1123916220.html * 3/29/26 *AWACS' Destruction is a Major Loss for US Military =E2=80=93 Ex-DoW Analys= t* [image: Boeing E-3 Sentry AWACS - Sputnik International, 1920, 29.03.2026] *The US has a limited number of E-3 aircraft, which are based on aging Boeing 707 airframes, and the next-generation replacement for E-3 is not yet available* *The loss of even one of E-3s puts a strain on the remaining aircraft as they are forced to operate longer. It demoralizes the crew, stresses systems, and =E2=80=9Cincreases the consumption rate of surveillance capabi= lity and information management=E2=80=9D* *Other E-3s now have to prioritize their own defense, which may reduce the radar, surveillance, and command effectiveness they supply* *With many of the important US long-range radars in the region being knocked out by Iranian strikes, the strain put on E-3 aircraft will only get worse, with further losses among them threatening to =E2=80=9Cnarrow an= d pressure the information space for theater commanders and US and Israeli forces=E2=80=9D* *Due to E-3=E2=80=99s distinctive and well-recognized function and appearan= ce, Kwiatkowski adds, its destruction creates concern in the US because it doesn=E2=80=99t look like =E2=80=9Cwinning,=E2=80=9D and that claims of Ira= n losing its fighting capability were premature.* *[image: A US Air Force B-52H Stratofortress from Minot Air Force Base, N.D., is refueled by a KC-135 Stratotanker in the US Central Command area of responsibility Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020 - Sputnik International, 1920, 28.03.2026]* *=E2=80=9COne month into a 'well planned 4 day operation' is revealing many predictable operational and logistical crises, as well as a noticeable reduction in the tactical and operational choices for US and also Israeli theater commanders,=E2=80=9D she says.* --000000000000e9b20b064e2cd12a Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://spu= tnikglobe.com/20260329/awacs-destruction-is-a-major-loss-for-us-military-ex= -dow-analyst-1123916220.html

3/29/26

<= /b>

AWACS'= Destruction is a Major Loss for US Military =E2=80=93 Ex-DoW Analyst

3D"Boein=

The US has a limited number of E-3 air= craft, which are based on aging Boeing 707 airframes, and the next-generati= on replacement for E-3 is not yet available

The loss of even one of E-3s puts a strain on t= he remaining aircraft as they are forced to operate longer. It demoralizes = the crew, stresses systems, and =E2=80=9Cincreases the consumption rate of = surveillance capability and information management=E2=80=9D

Other E-3s now have to prioriti= ze their own defense, which may reduce the radar, surveillance, and command= effectiveness they supply

With many of the important US long-range radars in the region be= ing knocked out by Iranian strikes, the strain put on E-3 aircraft will onl= y get worse, with further losses among them threatening to =E2=80=9Cnarrow = and pressure the information space for theater commanders and US and Israel= i forces=E2=80=9D

<= b>Due to E-3=E2=80=99s distinctive and well-recognized function and appeara= nce, Kwiatkowski adds, its destruction creates concern in the US because it= doesn=E2=80=99t look like =E2=80=9Cwinning,=E2=80=9D and that claims of Ir= an losing its fighting capability were premature.

3D"A

= =E2=80=9COne month into a 'well planned 4 day operation' is reveali= ng many predictable operational and logistical crises, as well as a noticea= ble reduction in the tactical and operational choices for US and also Israe= li theater commanders,=E2=80=9D she says.

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[Salon] Fwd: Haaretz: "Israeli Support for Iran War Wanes After Early Enthusiasm, Poll Shows." (3/29/26) X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:42:32 -0000 --00000000000019456a064e2d4251 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-03-29/ty-article/= .premium/israeli-support-for-iran-war-wanes-after-early-enthusiasm-poll-sho= ws/0000019d-3967-d3e8-a39f-7bef57900000 * *3/29/26* *Israeli Support for Iran War Wanes After Early Enthusiasm, Poll Shows*The share of Israeli Jews who say they 'somewhat' or 'strongly' oppose the war has more than doubled =E2=80=93 from 4 percent in the previous two polls to= 11.5 percent. Among the Arab public, opposition has remained steadfast [image: Michael comforts his dog, Louis, as they shelter in an underground car park that functions as a bomb shelter, as sirens sound amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on March.] *Michael comforts his dog, Louis, as they shelter in an underground car park that functions as a bomb shelter, as sirens sound amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on March. Credit: Ronen Zvulun/REUTERS* *Although support for the Israel-U.S. war in Iran among the Israeli public remains broad, that support has declined over the four weeks of fighting, data released over the weekend by the Israel Democracy Institute shows.* *As of late March, 68 percent of Israelis say that they support the continuation of the Iran war, down from 81 percent at the outset of the operation on February 28, and the number who oppose continuing the war is growing. * *The data released on Friday, a preview of the institute's March Voice Index to be released this week, comes from Israelis polled from March 22 to 26, and is contrasted with the institute's two previous polls, conducted by the institute's Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research from March 9 to 11 and March 2 to 3, respectively.* *Among Jewish Israeli respondents, 78 percent said they "strongly" or "somewhat" support the continuation of the war, down from the 92.5 percent who said the same in the previous poll, and the 93 percent who gave the same answer at the outset of the operation. Just 50 percent said that they "strongly support" the war, down from 68 percent in mid-March and 74 percent at the beginning of the month.* 'Our fate is in Trump=E2=80=99s hands': Haaretz Editor-in-Chief Aluf Benn o= n Israel=E2=80=99s =E2=80=98unprecedented=E2=80=99 wartime dependence on the = U.S. *The share of Israeli Jews who say they "somewhat" or "strongly" oppose the war has more than doubled =E2=80=93 from 4 percent in the previous two poll= s to 11.5 percent.* *Among Israel's Arab public, opposition has remained steadfast: 70 percent of those polled said that they "somewhat" or "strongly" oppose the war, compared to 65.5 percent in mid-March and 60 percent at the beginning of the month.* [image: Buildings that were damaged by an Iranian missile attack in Tel Aviv, Israel, in March.] *Buildings that were damaged by an Iranian missile attack in Tel Aviv, Israel, in March. Credit: Tomer Appelbaum* *Both Jewish and Arab respondents, though, seem to agree on the Iranian regime's ability to survive. When asked, "In your estimation, relative to the expectations of the Israeli and American planners of the operation, has Iran's resilience and fighting capability so far been," stronger or weaker, 56 percent of Jews and 51 percent of Arabs said that Iran was "much stronger" or "somewhat stronger" than anticipated.* *Regarding the home front, Israelis are divided on how long the country can sustain the state of war. The largest share of Jewish respondents said that it can go on for up to one month in total =E2=80=93 that is, by the end of = March =E2=80=93 with 35 percent. * *The number is similar among the Arab public, with 33 percent. From here, the divide begins: 20 percent of Jewish Israelis say that the war can go on for one to three months and 6.5 percent for three to six months, but the second-largest share, 28 percent, said that the country can bear the burden of the war for "as long as it takes to achieve the goals of the operation."= * *For Arab respondents, the outlook is bleaker: 16 percent said that the country could shoulder one to three months of war, 8 percent said three to six months, and just five percent said that the home front could bear the burden for "as long as it takes."* *The institute also polled Israelis on whether they believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's motivations for starting the war, along with the United States, were security-related and strategic or political and personal. Most Jewish respondents =E2=80=93 62 percent =E2=80=93 said that = Netanyahu was motivated by strategic and security concerns, while most Arab respondents, at 55 percent, believed his motivations to be personal.* *The Israeli Voice Index was conducted online and by telephone between March 22 and 26, and surveyed 756 respondents aged 18 and over: 604 in Hebrew and 152 in Arabic, constituting a nationally representative sample. The maximum sampling error for the full sample is =C2=B13.56 percent at a 9= 5 percent confidence level. Fieldwork was conducted by the Shiluv I=C2=B2R Institute.* --00000000000019456a064e2d4251 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable --00000000000019456a064e2d4251-- From cwfresidence@gmail.com Sun Mar 29 10:45:30 2026 Return-Path: X-Original-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Delivered-To: salon@mlm2.listserve.net Received: from mlm0.listserve.net (mlm0.listserve.net [161.35.233.68]) by mlm2.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id B2E62B0851 for ; Sun, 29 Mar 2026 10:45:30 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.11.0 mlm2.listserve.net B2E62B0851 Authentication-Results: mlm2.listserve.net; dkim=pass (2048-bit key) header.d=gmail.com header.i=@gmail.com header.b="mRzPmKbD" Received: by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) id A6948BD0A6; Sun, 29 Mar 2026 10:45:30 -0700 (PDT) Delivered-To: salon@listserve.com Received: from mail-ej1-f42.google.com (mail-ej1-f42.google.com [209.85.218.42]) by mlm0.listserve.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 7B9F4BD0A5 for ; Sun, 29 Mar 2026 10:45:30 -0700 (PDT) Received: by mail-ej1-f42.google.com with SMTP id a640c23a62f3a-b97905516faso506033166b.1 for ; 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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 10:45:28 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 13:45:12 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzAfWdNan3bZh9XS80wvgxC5JpdaMWyVZc0wvrZjM3KB6Cv6m5-zTCnug1A Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000be6f34064e2d4c6f" Subject: [Salon] US offers India pivotal role in Hormuz Strait X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:45:30 -0000 --000000000000be6f34064e2d4c6f Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-offers-india-pivotal-role-in-hormuz-str= ait/ * *US offers India pivotal role in Hormuz Strait* *March 29, 2026 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR * *External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have been persistently working to put the US-Indian relationship back on track. Their conversation on Friday on the sidelines of the G7 meeting at Abbaye des Vaux-de-Cernay, a former Cistercian monastery in northern France surrounded in unspoilt nature, which focused on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, seems to have retrieved some gravitas of the strategic content in the relationship. * *The US is turning the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is the number one priority today for President Donald Trump, into an opportunity to work together with New Delhi and create synergy for the US-Indian relationship. On its part, Delhi must be calculating that it will create some equity by helping out Trump who is in a tight corner struggling to end the war, which he realises belatedly is not winnable.* *In the past week, Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio made calls to their Indian counterparts and the focus of their discussion was on the West Asian situation where the Trump administration=E2=80=99s aim is to end the conflict, which is only possible if Iran allows freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. * *The G7 meeting yesterday considered that Tehran may introduce a new regime for the strait with a =E2=80=98toll system=E2=80=99 and impose a fee on shi= ps that use the waterway. Rubio called any such move to be =E2=80=9Cunacceptable.=E2=80=9D = On the other hand, Iran wields great advantage in the geography of the Hormuz Strait and it is risky for the Americans to militarily assert and seize control and operate the sea lanes in that part of the Persian Gulf in Iran=E2=80=99s territorial wa= ters =E2=80=94 leave alone establish dominance over the strait without robust logistic support from regional states. Iran knows it, the US knows it.* *Rubio told journalists on Friday that the G7 is working on a =E2=80=9Cplan= =E2=80=9D to =E2=80=9Cconfront=E2=80=9D Iran . He used exceptionally harsh language toward Iran. Rubio told the media, =E2=80=9CThe United States is prepared to be a part of that plan. We don=E2= =80=99t have to lead that plan, but we =E2=80=93 we=E2=80=99re happy to be a part of it. Bu= t =E2=80=A6 not just the G7 countries, but countries in Asia and all over the world have a lot at stake and should contribute greatly to that effort to ensure that neither the Strait of Hormuz nor, frankly, any international waterways should ever be something that=E2=80=99s controlled or tolled by a nation-state.=E2=80= =9D* *This was a pointed reference to India, which has been lately taking a vociferous position with regard to the closure of the strait, including at the level of Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the last week=E2=80=99s ph= one conversation with Trump. * *Rubio estimated that =E2=80=9CI=E2=80=99m happy there seemed to be agreeme= nt in that room [G7 meet] that we need to be ready to do something.=E2=80=9D He proposed th= at countries =E2=80=9Cthat are most impacted by that [closure of the strait] s= hould be willing to do something about it, and we=E2=80=99ll help them=E2=80=A6 I ha= d a good reception for that message. I think they all gave a commitment=E2=80=A6 tha= t they understood the necessity for it potentially and that there would be a need to participate in something like that.=E2=80=9D * *Rubio is counting on Jaishankar who was seated immediately to his right at the G7 roundtable on Friday. If so, this may create misgivings back home that India is getting sucked into the war. As it is, Indians feel peeved that Trump picked its arch rival Pakistan for the pivotal role of mediator at the forthcoming high-level talks between the American and Iranian officials in Islamabad, while outsourcing to Indians the less glamorous heavy lifting in Hormuz Strait. But then, Rubio clarified that the envisaged plan is only a =E2=80=9Cpost-conflict necessity.=E2=80=9D * *The Iranians who have tasted the seamless potential of the Strait of Hormuz as a geopolitical tool will be unwilling to surrender their sovereign prerogative over the waterway. Equally, it is well-understood that the closure of the Hormuz strait is not only about oil flow but also about petrodollar recycling. And that has profound implications for the international financial system and the status of the dollar as world currency through the past half a century. * * India can play a constructive role to bring the two sides together. Ironically, even as Rubio and Jaishankar were confabulating on Friday in France, with the former encouraging the latter to confront Iran, two liquefied petroleum gas tankers were crossing the Strait of Hormuz bound for India , according to ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler. * *India is gradually moving its stranded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with four LPG tankers moved so far. And Iran is keeping its word that =E2=80=9Cnon-hostile vessels=E2=80=9D may transit the waterway if they coor= dinate with Iranian authorities. Now, why should India jeopardise its own interests? * *Then, there is another aspect to this, as it may concern the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), the US-Indian foundational pact that allows access to Indian bases for US vessels as logistic support. * *Some reports in the social media have appeared that the US has approached India invoking LEMOVA for access to its vessels to Indian ports. Indeed, with the massive destruction of the US bases in West Asia in the Iranian missile strikes, they have been rendered virtually dysfunctional. * *To be sure, Trump=E2=80=99s strange remark on Friday can be put in perspective when he said that =E2=80=9COur amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward. Prime Minister Modi and I are two people that get things done, something that cannot be said for most.=E2=80=9D * *Rubio was far from unequivocal as regards the US intentions. When asked about any deployment of ground troops in Iran, he parried, =E2=80=9CNow, in= terms of why there=E2=80=99s deployments, number one, the President has to be pre= pared for multiple contingencies=E2=80=A6 But we can achieve all of our objective= s without ground troops, but we are always going to be prepared to give the President maximum optionality and maximum opportunity to adjust to contingencies, should they emerge.=E2=80=9D * *The strategic ambiguity is self-evident. This was also how the Vietnam War began =E2=80=94 unknowingly. A far better option with no strings attached = and hardly and involving hardly any risk-taking would be to strengthen energy security the Chinese way =E2=80=94 pipelines from energy sources directly t= o the Indian market. Russia had shown interest. It is entirely conceivable that this war can be ended only by Washington conceding Iran=E2=80=99s birth rig= ht to export its oil and gas.* *Arguably, the time is getting ripe also for an Iran-India pipeline project. Delhi should keep all its options open in what is essentially a transitional period in the geopolitics of energy rather than remain a gatekeeper serving Trump=E2=80=99s =E2=80=98America First=E2=80=99.* --000000000000be6f34064e2d4c6f Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-offers-india= -pivotal-role-in-hormuz-strait/

US offers India pivotal role in = Hormuz Strait

3D""

External A= ffairs Minister S. Jaishankar and the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hav= e been persistently working to put the US-Indian relationship back on track= . Their conversation on Friday on the sidelines of the G7 meeting at Abbaye= des Vaux-de-Cernay, a former Cistercian monastery in northern France surro= unded in unspoilt nature, which focused on the closure of the Strait of Hor= muz, seems to have retrieved some gravitas of the strategic content in the = relationship.=C2=A0

The US is turning the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is the number = one priority today for President Donald Trump, into an opportunity to work = together with New Delhi and create synergy for the US-Indian relationship.<= span style=3D"max-width:100%">=C2=A0On its part, Delhi must be calculating = that it will create some equity by helping out Trump who is in a tight corn= er struggling to end the war,=C2=A0 which he realises belatedly is not winn= able.

In the past week, Trump and Secretary o= f State Marco Rubio made calls to their Indian counterparts and the focus o= f their discussion was on the West Asian situation where the Trump administ= ration=E2=80=99s aim is to end the conflict, which is only possible if Iran= allows freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.=C2=A0

The G7 meeting yesterday con= sidered that Tehran may introduce a new regime for the strait with a =E2=80= =98toll system=E2=80=99 and impose a fee on ships that use the waterway.=C2=A0Rubio called any such move to be = =E2=80=9Cunacceptable.=E2=80=9D On the other hand, Iran wields great advant= age in the=C2=A0geography of the Hormuz Strait= =C2=A0and it is risky for the Americans to militarily assert and sei= ze control and operate the sea lanes in that part of the Persian Gulf in Ir= an=E2=80=99s territorial waters =E2=80=94 leave alone establish dominance o= ver the strait without robust logistic support from regional states. Iran k= nows it, the US knows it.

Rubio told journalists on = Friday that the=C2=A0G7 is working on a =E2=80=9Cplan=E2=80=9D to =E2=80= =9Cconfront=E2=80=9D Iran. He used exceptionally harsh language toward = Iran. Rubio told the media, =E2=80=9CThe United States is prepared to be a = part of that plan. We don=E2=80=99t have to lead that plan, but we =E2=80= =93 we=E2=80=99re happy to be a part of it. But =E2=80=A6 not just the G7 c= ountries, but countries in Asia and all over the world have a lot at stake = and should contribute greatly to that effort to ensure that neither the Str= ait of Hormuz nor, frankly, any international waterways should ever be some= thing that=E2=80=99s controlled or tolled by a nation-state.=E2=80=9D

This was a pointed reference to India, which has been lat= ely taking a vociferous position with regard to the closure of the strait, = including at the level of Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the last week= =E2=80=99s phone conversation with Trump.=C2= =A0

Rubio estimated that =E2=80=9CI=E2=80=99m= happy there seemed to be agreement in that room [G7 meet] that we need to = be ready to do something.=E2=80=9D He proposed that countries =E2=80=9Cthat= are most impacted by that [closure of the strait] should be willing to do = something about it, and we=E2=80=99ll help them=E2=80=A6 I had a good recep= tion for that message. I think they all gave a commitment=E2=80=A6 that the= y understood the necessity for it potentially and that there would be a nee= d to participate in something like that.=E2=80=9D=C2=A0=C2=A0

Rubio is count= ing on Jaishankar who was seated immediately to his right at the G7 roundta= ble on Friday. If so, this may create misgivings back home that India is ge= tting sucked into the war. As it is, Indians feel peeved that Trump picked = its arch rival Pakistan for the pivotal role of mediator at the forthcoming= high-level talks between the American and Iranian officials in Islamabad, = while outsourcing to Indians the less glamorous heavy lifting in Hormuz Str= ait. But then, Rubio clarified that the envisaged plan is only a =E2=80=9Cp= ost-conflict necessity.=E2=80=9D=C2=A0

The Iranians who have tasted the seamless potentia= l of the Strait of Hormuz as a geopolitical tool will be unwilling to surre= nder their sovereign prerogative over the waterway. Equally, it is well-und= erstood that the closure of the Hormuz strait is not only about oil flow bu= t also about petrodollar recycling. And that has profound implications for = the international financial system and the status of the dollar as world cu= rrency through the past half a century.=C2= =A0

=C2=A0India can play a constructive role to bring the two sides together. Iron= ically, even as Rubio and Jaishankar were confabulating on Friday in France= , with the former encouraging the latter to confront Iran, two liquefied pe= troleum=C2=A0gas tankers were crossing the Strait of Hormuz bound for India, acco= rding to ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler.=C2=A0

India is gradually moving its stra= nded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with four LPG tankers moved so far. A= nd Iran is keeping its word that =E2=80=9Cnon-hostile vessels=E2=80=9D may = transit the waterway if they coordinate with Iranian authorities. Now, why = should India jeopardise its own interests?= =C2=A0

Then, there is another aspect to this,= as it may concern the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), = the US-Indian foundational pact that=C2=A0allo= ws access to Indian bases for US vessels=C2=A0as logistic support.=C2=A0

Some reports= in the social media have appeared that the US has approached India invokin= g LEMOVA for access to its vessels to Indian ports. Indeed, with the massiv= e destruction of the US bases in West Asia in the Iranian missile strikes, = they have been rendered virtually dysfunctional.=C2=A0

To be sure, Trump=E2=80=99s= =C2=A0strange remark=C2=A0on Friday can= be put in perspective when he said that =E2=80=9COur amazing relationship = with India will be even stronger going forward. Prime Minister Modi and I a= re two people that get things done, something that cannot be said for most.= =E2=80=9D=C2=A0=C2=A0

Rubio was far from unequivocal as regards the US inten= tions. When asked about any deployment of ground troops in Iran, he parried= , =E2=80=9CNow, in terms of why there=E2=80=99s deployments, number one, th= e President has to be prepared for multiple contingencies=E2=80=A6 But we c= an achieve all of our objectives without ground troops, but we are always g= oing to be prepared to give the President maximum optionality and maximum o= pportunity to adjust to contingencies, should they emerge.=E2=80=9D=C2=A0

The strategic a= mbiguity is self-evident. This was also how the Vietnam War began =E2=80=94= unknowingly. A far=C2=A0=C2=A0= better option with no strings attached and hardly and involving hard= ly any risk-taking would be to strengthen energy security the Chinese way = =E2=80=94 pipelines from energy sources directly to the Indian market. Russ= ia had shown interest. It is entirely conceivable that this war can be ende= d only by Washington conceding Iran=E2=80=99s birth right to export its oil= and gas.

Arguably, the time is getting ripe also fo= r an Iran-India pipeline project. Delhi should keep all its options open in= what is essentially a transitional period in the geopolitics of energy rat= her than remain a gatekeeper serving Trump=E2=80=99s =E2=80=98America First= =E2=80=99.

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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 10:47:14 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 13:46:58 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzCm4IfeColFO8XWvCD-Jfpt2te_dL9RpNjWK87WbNjubatBAi1cuHWPqE8 Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0000000000000cfc90064e2d5384" Subject: [Salon] =?utf-8?q?Iran_Isn=E2=80=99t_Just_a_Threat=E2=80=94It?= =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=99s_Splitting_NATO?= X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:47:17 -0000 --0000000000000cfc90064e2d5384 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/03/29/iran-isnt-just-a-threat-its-splittin= g-nato/ * *Iran Isn=E2=80=99t Just a Threat=E2=80=94It=E2=80=99s Splitting NATO* *March 29, 2026* *The war with Iran is exposing a structural fracture inside NATO=E2=80=94on= e that may prove more consequential than any external threat facing the Alliance today. * *NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Donald Trump (President, United States) Photo: Martijn Beekman, image credit: NATO* *The war with Iran is exposing a structural fracture inside NATO=E2=80=94on= e that may prove more consequential than any external threat facing the Alliance today. What is at stake is not only NATO=E2=80=99s ability to respond to a = new crisis in the Middle East but also its capacity to remain strategically coherent in a world defined by competing priorities and simultaneous conflicts.* *As disagreements grow among member states over what matters most=E2=80=94and where NATO should ac= t=E2=80=94the Alliance is confronting a quieter but more dangerous risk: not defeat, but internal divergence .* *This is not the first time NATO has had to adapt. After the Cold War, it redefined itself as a stabilization force in Europe=E2=80=99s periphery, particularly in the Balkans . After 9/11, it became a global security actor, projecting power far beyond its original geographic scope, most notably in Afghanistan . More recently, Russia=E2=80= =99s annexation of Crimea and its invasion of Ukraine pushed NATO back to its core mission=E2=80=94deterrence and defense of Europe=E2=80=99s eastern fla= nk.* *But the war in the Middle East introduces a different kind of challenge. Unlike Ukraine, which directly affects European security, this conflict sits on the edge of NATO=E2=80=99s strategic core. And that difference matt= ers.* *For the United States, the Middle East remains a central theater of global competition, where credibility, deterrence, and maritime security are all at stake. For many European allies, however, the priority is elsewhere. As long as the war in Ukraine continues, the focus remains firmly on the eastern flank . >From this perspective, deeper involvement in a conflict with Iran risks stretching resources, political attention, and strategic focus at a moment when concentration is essential. * *This divergence is already visible. Several European governments have declined to join U.S.-led efforts targeting Iran or to take part in securing the Strait of Hormuz. Their hesitation is not simply tactical. It reflects a more fundamental question: what is NATO for?* *For decades, the answer was relatively clear. The United States and Europe shared a common hierarchy of threats , centered on the defense of the European continent. Even when NATO expanded its role, that underlying consensus held. Today, it is beginning to erode. Increasingly, Washington sees NATO as a global platform, capable of operating across multiple theaters=E2=80=94from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific=E2=80=94in a broader competition with r= ival powers. Many European capitals , by contrast, still view the Alliance primarily as a territorial defense organization. This gap is no longer marginal. It is becoming structural.* *The result is a growing strategic dualism inside NATO. One vision pushes for global engagement and flexibility. The other insists on geographic focus and strategic discipline. If left unresolved, this divide could transform NATO from a coherent alliance into a system of competing priorities.* *The consequences are not theoretical. NATO=E2=80=99s strength has never re= sted solely on military capability but on a shared understanding of what matters most. Once that shared perception weakens, coordination becomes harder, and collective action more uncertain. The current crisis may mark the moment when that shift becomes visible.* *Also, European caution is shaped by experience. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan left a lasting imprint, reinforcing concerns about entering conflicts with unclear objectives and uncertain outcomes. For many governments, involvement in a war with Iran risks repeating those mistakes=E2=80=94this time in a more volatile regional environment.* *Yet this restraint is not without cost. By limiting engagement, European allies preserve strategic focus=E2=80=94but risk widening the gap with Wash= ington. The longer this divergence persists, the harder it becomes to sustain a shared strategic culture.* *There is also a clear strategic calculation at play. Opening a second major front in the Middle East would inevitably dilute NATO=E2=80=99s focus= on Europe. And that is precisely what Russia would welcome. Already engaged in a prolonged war in Ukraine, Moscow has every interest in seeing Western attention divided. The more NATO stretches itself across multiple crises, the greater Russia=E2=80=99s room for maneuver on its imme= diate periphery.* *China benefits in a different way. As U.S. military and diplomatic resources shift toward the Middle East, attention to the Indo-Pacific inevitably weakens. Beijing does not need to act directly. It gains from a simple dynamic: the more the United States is pulled into multiple theaters, the less coherent its overall strategy becomes.* *This broader context matters. As Zbigniew Brzezinski once argued, stability across Eurasia depends on the ability of Western powers to maintain strategic coherence. When that coherence erodes, opportunities open for competitors to reshape the balance in their favor.* *The Strait of Hormuz illustrates the dilemma. Its security is undeniably critical for global energy flows and maritime stability. But protecting it is not a neutral act in the context of an ongoing conflict. What Washington frames as a defensive mission may be interpreted in Tehran as a direct extension of war. That ambiguity creates a real risk of escalation=E2=80=94= one that European governments are unwilling to accept without clear political objectives and a defined exit strategy.* *At the heart of the current debate lies a deeper issue: the distinction between solidarity and alignment. European allies are not rejecting cooperation with the United States. They are redefining its limits.* *This is where the real challenge lies. NATO is no longer facing a single, dominant threat. It is navigating a landscape of competing priorities=E2=80=94Russia in Europe, instability in the Middle East, and st= rategic competition in Asia. The question is not whether the Alliance can act everywhere, but whether it can do so without losing focus. If NATO fails to prioritize, it risks overstretch . And overstretch does not produce strength=E2=80=94it produces fragmentation= .* *The lesson is not that NATO should withdraw from global challenges but that it must define its role with greater precision. Strategic discipline, not expansion, is now the key to credibility.* *Ultimately, the war with Iran is not just testing NATO=E2=80=99s military = posture. It is testing its identity.* *And if the alliance cannot reconcile what it is asked to defend with what its members are willing to fight for, the real fracture will not come from outside=E2=80=94but from within.* *[image: Dr. Cherkaoui Roudani]* *Dr. Cherkaoui Roudani* *Cherkaoui Roudani is a distinguished university professor specialising in Diplomacy, International Relations, Security, and Crisis Management. He is recognised for his expertise in geostrategic issues and security. A former Member of Parliament in the Kingdom of Morocco, he also served as a political member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Francophonie (APF). His contributions to global dialogue were honoured with the prestigious "Emerging Leaders" award from the Aspen Institute. A sought-after consultant for national and international television channels, Mr. Roudani Cherkaoui is a prominent international speaker on security, defence, and international relations. His thought leadership extends to numerous analyses published in leading national and international newspapers and magazines.* --0000000000000cfc90064e2d5384 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/= 03/29/iran-isnt-just-a-threat-its-splitting-nato/

Iran Isn=E2=80=99t Just = a Threat=E2=80=94It=E2=80=99s Splitting NATO

March 29, 2026

The war with Iran is exposing a structural fracture inside = NATO=E2=80=94one that may prove more consequential than any external threat= facing the Alliance today.=C2=A0

3D""NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Donald Trump (President, = United States) Photo: Martijn Beekman, image credit: NATO
<= /div>
<= div style=3D"max-width:100%;clear:both">

T= he war with Iran is exposing a structural fracture inside NATO=E2=80=94one = that may prove more consequential than any external threat facing the Allia= nce today. What is at stake is not only NATO=E2=80=99s ability to respond t= o a new crisis in the Middle East but also its capacity to remain strategic= ally coherent in a world defined by competing priorities and simultaneous c= onflicts.

As=C2=A0disagreements= =C2=A0grow among member states over what matters most=E2=80=94and wh= ere NATO should act=E2=80=94the Alliance is confronting a quieter but more = dangerous risk: not defeat, but=C2=A0internal divergence.

This= is not the first time NATO has had to adapt. After the Cold War, it redefi= ned itself as a stabilization force in Europe=E2=80=99s periphery, particul= arly in the=C2=A0Balkans. After 9/11, it became a global security actor, projecting power far bey= ond its original geographic scope, most notably in Afghanistan. More rec= ently, Russia=E2=80=99s annexation of Crimea and its invasion of Ukraine pu= shed NATO back to its core mission=E2=80=94deterrence and defense of Europe= =E2=80=99s eastern flank.

But the war in the Middle East = introduces a different kind of challenge. Unlike Ukraine, which directly af= fects European security, this conflict sits on the edge of NATO=E2=80=99s s= trategic core. And that difference matters.

For the Unite= d States, the=C2=A0Middle East=C2=A0remains a central theater of global comp= etition, where credibility, deterrence, and maritime security are all at st= ake. For many European allies, however, the priority is elsewhere. As long = as the war in Ukraine continues, the focus remains firmly on the=C2= =A0eastern flank. From this pers= pective, deeper involvement in a conflict with Iran risks stretching resour= ces, political attention, and strategic focus at a moment when=C2=A0<= /span>concentration i= s essential.

This divergence is already visible.=C2=A0Several Eu= ropean=C2=A0governments have declined to join U.S.-led eff= orts targeting Iran or to take part in securing the Strait of Hormuz. Their= hesitation is not simply tactical. It reflects a more fundamental question= : what is NATO for?

For decades, the answer was relativel= y clear. The United States and Europe shared a common hierarchy of=C2= =A0threats, centered on the defense of t= he European continent. Even when NATO expanded its role, that underlying co= nsensus held. Today, it is beginning to erode. Increasingly, Washington see= s NATO as a global platform, capable of operating across=C2=A0= multiple=C2=A0<= /span>theaters=E2=80=94from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific=E2=80= =94in a broader competition with rival powers. Many=C2=A0European capitals, by = contrast, still view the Alliance primarily as a territorial defense organi= zation. This gap is no longer marginal. It is becoming structural.

The result is a growing strategic dualism inside NATO. One vision= pushes for global engagement and flexibility. The other insists on geograp= hic focus and strategic discipline. If left unresolved, this divide could t= ransform NATO from a coherent alliance into a system of competing prioritie= s.

The consequences are not theoretical. NATO=E2=80=99s s= trength has never rested solely on military capability but on a shared unde= rstanding of what matters most. Once that shared perception weakens, coordi= nation becomes harder, and collective action more uncertain. The current cr= isis may mark the moment when that shift becomes visible.

Also, European caution is shaped by experience. The=C2=A0wars=C2=A0in Iraq and Afghanistan left a = lasting imprint, reinforcing concerns about entering conflicts with unclear= objectives and uncertain outcomes. For many governments, involvement in a = war with Iran risks repeating those mistakes=E2=80=94this time in a more vo= latile regional environment.

<= font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Yet this restraint is not wi= thout cost. By limiting engagement, European allies preserve strategic focu= s=E2=80=94but risk widening the gap with Washington. The longer this diverg= ence persists, the harder it becomes to sustain a shared strategic culture.=

There is also a clear strategic calculation at play. Op= ening a second major front in the Middle East would inevitably dilute NATO= =E2=80=99s focus on Europe. And that is precisely what=C2=A0Russia=C2=A0would welcome. Already engaged in a prol= onged war in Ukraine, Moscow has every interest in seeing Western attention= divided. The more NATO stretches itself across multiple crises, the greate= r Russia=E2=80=99s room for maneuver on its immediate periphery.=

China=C2=A0benefits in a different way. As U.S. military and diplomatic= resources shift toward the Middle East, attention to the Indo-Pacific inev= itably weakens. Beijing does not need to act directly. It gains from a simp= le dynamic: the more the United States is pulled into multiple theaters, th= e less coherent its overall strategy becomes.

This broade= r context matters. As Zbigniew Brzezinski once argued, stability across Eur= asia depends on the ability of Western powers to maintain strategic coheren= ce. When that coherence erodes, opportunities open for competitors to resha= pe the balance in their favor.

The Strait of Hormuz illus= trates the dilemma. Its security is undeniably critical for global energy f= lows and maritime stability. But protecting it is not a neutral act in the = context of an ongoing conflict. What Washington frames as a defensive missi= on may be interpreted in Tehran as a direct extension of war. That ambiguit= y creates a real risk of escalation=E2=80=94one that European governments a= re unwilling to accept without clear political objectives and a defined exi= t strategy.

At the heart of the current debate lies a dee= per issue: the distinction between solidarity and alignment. European allie= s are not rejecting cooperation with the United States. They are redefining= its limits.

This is where the real challenge lies. NATO = is no longer facing a single, dominant threat. It is navigating a landscape= of competing priorities=E2=80=94Russia in Europe, instability in the Middl= e East, and strategic competition in Asia. The question is not whether the = Alliance can act everywhere, but whether it can do so without losing focus.= If NATO fails to prioritize, it risks=C2=A0overstretch. And overstretch does not produce strength= =E2=80=94it produces fragmentation.

The lesson is not tha= t NATO should withdraw from global challenges but that it must define its r= ole with greater precision. Strategic discipline, not expansion, is now the= key to credibility.

Ultimately, the war with Iran is not= just testing NATO=E2=80=99s military posture. It is testing its identity.<= /font>

And if the alliance cannot reconcile what it is asked t= o defend with what its members are willing to fight for, the real fracture = will not come from outside=E2=80=94but from within.

<= a href=3D"https://moderndiplomacy.eu/author/cherkaouiroudani/" title=3D"Dr.= Cherkaoui Roudani" style=3D"text-decoration:none;max-width:100%" target=3D= "_blank">3D"Dr.=
Dr. Cherkaoui Roudani

Cherkaoui= Roudani is a distinguished university professor specialising in Diplomacy,= International Relations, Security, and Crisis Management. He is recognised= for his expertise in geostrategic issues and security. A former Member of = Parliament in the Kingdom of Morocco, he also served as a political member = of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Francophonie (APF). His contributions = to global dialogue were honoured with the prestigious "Emerging Leader= s" award from the Aspen Institute. A sought-after consultant for natio= nal and international television channels, Mr. Roudani Cherkaoui is a promi= nent international speaker on security, defence, and international relation= s. His thought leadership extends to numerous analyses published in leading= national and international newspapers and magazines.

<= /div>
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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 10:55:48 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 13:55:32 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzC2LOcfR2S_xDe0Ib9ve9h-AfzObh-4-NWg0nnqhmYY0xplpOp-DpkCh08 Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000b58f56064e2d7146" Subject: [Salon] On The Failure Of Shock And Awe In Iran X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:55:50 -0000 --000000000000b58f56064e2d7146 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/03/on-the-failure-of-shock-and-awe-in-i= ran.html * *On The Failure Of Shock And Awe In Iran =E2=80=93 Moon of Alabama* *March 28, 2026 * *On The Failure Of Shock And Awe In Iran * *One Sergey Poletaev (quoted here ) writes in RT about the Shock and Awe doctrine:* *Russia also succumbed to the idea of the shock and awe doctrine.* *After the war with Georgia in 2008, the Russian military was restructured to carry out rapid and destructive military interventions. However, Russia was the first to stumble on this doctrine. In spring 2022, it faced a critical choice: Either fight a serious, bloody war of attrition or settle for a disgraceful peace. Moscow chose war, and the Ukraine conflict has now entered its fifth year.* *Trump now finds himself at a similar crossroads: Fight or to concede defeat. The problem is that the entire Western military-industrial complex has spent decades adapting to the shock and awe doctrine; NATO and the US possess unparalleled and exorbitantly expensive airstrike capabilities, but don=E2=80=99t have many other resources. If a targeted nation can withstand= the initial air assaults, time will be on its side =E2=80=93 unlike Russia, the= West lacks the resources for a prolonged military campaign.* *This explains the =E2=80=98gestures of goodwill=E2=80=99 Trump is currentl= y making toward Iran. Just like Putin in spring 2022, he needs to buy time and figure out his next move: Continue fighting, launch a highly risky landing operation, or settle for a humiliating peace. The first option could spell disaster for Trump in the upcoming midterm elections, while the second could bring the US the most significant strategic defeat since Vietnam.* *MoA commentator English Outsider replies to it: (Please read his use of =E2=80=9Cwe=E2=80=9D in scare quotes. It obviou= sly does not include MoA readers =F0=9F=98=89* *The RT comparison between the war with Russia and the war with Iran has some force. In both cases the West committed itself to war on a gamble. We expected the Russians to fold at once under our Shock and Awe sanctions; and we expected the Iranians to fold at once as a result of our Shock and Awe initial attack.* *Those were our plan A=E2=80=99s and we had no plan B=E2=80=99s ready. In b= oth cases we thought they wouldn=E2=80=99t be needed. In the Iranian case we see Trump h= imself nonplussed that plan A hasn=E2=80=99t worked. Failure wasn=E2=80=99t suppos= ed to happen, he=E2=80=99s saying, and he=E2=80=99s now at a loss because it has.* *So both attacks, the sanctions war on Russia and the Blitzkrieg attack on Iran, were what the soldiers call shit or bust operations. In more elevated terms, both wars were gambles we had to win because the consequences of failure were catastrophic.=E2=80=A6So the RT comparison between the Ukraini= an war and the war with Iran has some force. It=E2=80=99s not, however, entirely = a foursquare comparison.=E2=80=A6The Russians always had options. There was = only one option ever open to the Iranians. Fight with all they had because if they didn=E2=80=99t immediate destruction awaited them.* *And the comparison also breaks down when we consider the respective positions of Russia and Iran now. Russia still has the option of finessing the final outcome of the Ukrainian war. The Russians aren=E2=80=99t too bo= thered about how they stop the use of Ukraine as a Western attack dog, just as long as they get to stop it one way or the other. The Iranians do not have the luxury of alternative options. They have to put paid for good to Western power in the ME. They know very well that if they don=E2=80=99t, we= =E2=80=99ll be back for more later.* *The RT comparison fails another way too, on the all important PR side.* *We talk grandly of =E2=80=9Cthe West=E2=80=9D or =E2=80=9Cthe US=E2=80=9D = or =E2=80=9CBrussels=E2=80=9D as if we=E2=80=99re looking at monolithic entities. We=E2=80=99re looking at no such thing of = course. We=E2=80=99re looking at a relatively small coterie of politicians, interes= t groups, and factions in control of the political, administrative and military power centres of the West.* *That control goes for nothing unless those various Western politicians gain the acquiescence, if not the support, of the masses of people they are governing. That can only be done by ensuring the climate of opinion is in their favour.* *In the case of the Ukrainian war that was ensured. A vanishingly small number of people in the various Western electorates knew what the true position in Ukraine was. We most of us believed, and still believe, that that war resulted from a Russian dictator seizing the chance to re-establish the old Soviet or Tsarist empire. There were none I knew, England or Germany, who believed otherwise. There were none I knew who did not believe we should therefore be resisting that Russian dictator with all our might. The coterie of Western politicians therefore had the enthusiastic support of the greater part of the various populations they governed.* *Not so in the case of the Iranian war. When it came to the preliminaries to the two wars, very few of us knew, as one example, of the ultra atrocities during the ATO. Unless you kept away from the screens entirely, all of us knew of the atrocities in Gaza. When it came to the start of those wars, few of us knew of the true position on the LoC in February =E2=80=9922. In =E2=80=9926 all of us knew that the West had mou= nted a violent attack on Iran during peace negotiations.* *The PR climate is therefore entirely different in the two cases and whereas in =E2=80=9922, most of us were clamouring for the Russians to be h= it with all we had, in =E2=80=9926 many (including a component of Trump=E2=80=99s M= AGA base) are dead against the Iranian war. There is also increasing concern across all the electorates of the West about the resources we are putting into that war and about the economic blowback on us.* *For though the politicians and interest groups pay no attention to whether we are fighting a =E2=80=9Cjust war=E2=80=9D or not, most ordinary members = of the public do. In =E2=80=9922 we believed, almost all of us, that we were fighting a = just war against the Russians. Now, few believe we are fighting a just war against the Iranians. It is that alteration in the PR climate that renders it inevitable that if they hold steady, the Iranians will win. I suppose the Iranians could always end up inhabiting a radioactive wasteland, but that itself would be no victory for our elites.* *Is that true? Isn=E2=80=99t the PR machine in the West in override to chan= ge that picture?* *Posted by b on March 28, 2026 at 16:38 UTC | Permalink * --000000000000b58f56064e2d7146 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

On The Failure Of Shock And Awe In= Iran =E2=80=93 Moon of Alabama

March 28= , 2026=C2=A0

On The Failure = Of Shock And Awe In Iran=C2=A0

One Sergey Poletaev (quoted here)= =C2=A0writes<= /a>=C2=A0in=C2=A0RT=C2=A0about the=C2=A0Shock and Awe=C2=A0doctrine:

Russia also suc= cumbed to the idea of the shock and awe doctrine.

After the war with Georgia in 2= 008, the Russian military was restructured to carry out rapid and destructi= ve military interventions. However, Russia was the first to stumble on this= doctrine. In spring 2022, it faced a critical choice: Either fight a serio= us, bloody war of attrition or settle for a disgraceful peace. Moscow chose= war, and the Ukraine conflict has now entered its fifth year.

Trump now finds hi= mself at a similar crossroads: Fight or to concede defeat. The problem is t= hat the entire Western military-industrial complex has spent decades adapti= ng to the shock and awe doctrine; NATO and the US possess unparalleled and = exorbitantly expensive airstrike capabilities, but don=E2=80=99t have many = other resources. If a targeted nation can withstand the initial air assault= s, time will be on its side =E2=80=93 unlike Russia, the West lacks the res= ources for a prolonged military campaign.

This explains the =E2=80=98gestures of = goodwill=E2=80=99 Trump is currently making toward Iran. Just like Putin in= spring 2022, he needs to buy time and figure out his next move: Continue f= ighting, launch a highly risky landing operation, or settle for a humiliati= ng peace. The first option could spell disaster for Trump in the upcoming m= idterm elections, while the second could bring the US the most significant = strategic defeat since Vietnam.

MoA commentator=C2=A0=C2=A0English Outsider=C2=A0=C2= =A0replies=C2=A0to it: (Please read his use of =E2=80=9Cwe= =E2=80=9D in scare quotes. It obviously does not include=C2=A0= MoA=C2=A0readers=C2=A0= =F0=9F=98=89

The RT comparison between the war with Russia a= nd the war with Iran has some force. In both cases the West committed itsel= f to war on a gamble. We expected the Russians to fold at once under our Sh= ock and Awe sanctions; and we expected the Iranians to fold at once as a re= sult of our Shock and Awe initial attack.

Those were our plan A=E2=80=99s and we = had no plan B=E2=80=99s ready. In both cases we thought they wouldn=E2=80= =99t be needed. In the Iranian case we see Trump himself nonplussed that pl= an A hasn=E2=80=99t worked. Failure wasn=E2=80=99t supposed to happen, he= =E2=80=99s saying, and he=E2=80=99s now at a loss because it has.

So both attacks= , the sanctions war on Russia and the Blitzkrieg attack on Iran, were what = the soldiers call shit or bust operations. In more elevated terms, both war= s were gambles we had to win because the consequences of failure were catas= trophic.
=E2=80=A6
= So the RT comparison between the Ukrainian war and the war with Iran has so= me force.=C2=A0 It=E2=80=99s not, however, entirely a foursquare comparison= .
=E2=80=A6
The Rus= sians always had options.=C2=A0 There was only one option ever open to the = Iranians.=C2=A0 Fight with all they had=C2=A0 because if they didn=E2=80=99= t=C2=A0immediate=C2=A0= destruction awaited them.

= And the comparison also breaks down when we cons= ider the respective positions of Russia and Iran now.=C2=A0 Russia still ha= s the option of finessing the final outcome of the Ukrainian war.=C2=A0 The= Russians aren=E2=80=99t too bothered about how they stop the use of Ukrain= e as a Western attack dog, just as long as they get to stop it one way or t= he other.=C2=A0 The Iranians do not have the luxury of alternative options.= =C2=A0 They have to put paid for good to Western power in the ME. They know= very well that if they don=E2=80=99t, we=E2=80=99ll be back for more later= .

The = RT comparison fails another way too, on the all important PR side.

We talk grandl= y of =E2=80=9Cthe West=E2=80=9D or =E2=80=9Cthe US=E2=80=9D or =E2=80=9CBru= ssels=E2=80=9D as if we=E2=80=99re looking at monolithic entities.=C2=A0 We= =E2=80=99re looking at no such thing of course.=C2=A0 We=E2=80=99re looking= at a relatively small coterie of politicians, interest groups, and faction= s in control of the political, administrative and military power centres of= the West.

That control goes for nothing unless those various Western politicians= gain the acquiescence, if not the support, of the masses of people they ar= e governing.=C2=A0 =C2=A0That can only be done by ensuring the climate of o= pinion is in their favour.

In the case of the Ukrainian war that was ensured.=C2= =A0 A vanishingly small number of people in the various Western electorates= knew what the true position in Ukraine was.=C2=A0 We most of us believed, = and still believe, that that war resulted from a Russian dictator seizing t= he chance to re-establish the old Soviet or Tsarist empire.=C2=A0 There wer= e none I knew, England or Germany, who believed otherwise.=C2=A0 There were= none I knew who did not believe we should therefore be resisting that Russ= ian dictator with all our might.=C2=A0 The coterie of Western politicians t= herefore had the enthusiastic support of the greater part of the various po= pulations they governed.

Not so in the case of the Iranian war.=C2=A0 When it cam= e to the preliminaries to the two wars, very few of us knew, as one example= , of the ultra atrocities during the ATO.=C2=A0 Unless you kept away from t= he screens entirely,=C2=A0all=C2=A0of us knew of the atrocities in Gaza.=C2=A0 When it cam= e to the start of those wars, few of us knew of the true position on the Lo= C in February =E2=80=9922.=C2=A0 In =E2=80=9926=C2=A0all=C2=A0of us knew=C2=A0 that the We= st had mounted a violent attack on Iran during peace negotiations.

The PR climate= is therefore entirely different in the two cases and whereas in =E2=80=992= 2, most of us were clamouring for the Russians to be hit with all we had, i= n =E2=80=9926 many (including a component of Trump=E2=80=99s MAGA base) are= dead against the Iranian war.=C2=A0 There is also increasing concern acros= s all the electorates of the West about the resources we are putting into t= hat war and about the economic blowback on us.

For= though the politicians and interest groups pay no attention to whether we = are fighting a =E2=80=9Cjust war=E2=80=9D or not, most ordinary members of = the public do.=C2=A0 In =E2=80=9922 we believed, almost all of us, t= hat we were fighting a just war against the Russians.=C2=A0 Now, few believ= e we are fighting a just war against the Iranians.=C2=A0=C2=A0It is that alteration in the PR climate that= renders it inevitable that if they hold steady, the Iranians will win.=C2= =A0=C2=A0I suppose the Iranians could always end up inh= abiting a radioactive wasteland, but that itself would be no victory for ou= r elites.

Is that true? Isn=E2=80=99t the PR machine in the West in = override to change that picture?

= Posted by b on March 28, 2026 at 16:38 UTC |=C2=A0Per= malink
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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 10:57:20 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 13:57:05 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzDye013bpx4g69mqYL6Utd_3a4mOU5MPbtYviXWiWeKgXvT0Fnyg_RwQlg Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000370ecc064e2d777d" Subject: [Salon] The High Cost of Canceling Offshore Wind in the United States X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:57:23 -0000 --000000000000370ecc064e2d777d Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-High-Cost-of-Canceling-Offs= hore-Wind-in-the-United-States.html * *3/2926* *The High Cost of Canceling Offshore Wind in the United States* [image: Offshore wind farm against a sunset.] - *The U.S. will reimburse TotalEnergies nearly $1 billion to abandon offshore wind projects that could have generated over 4 GW of clean powe= r.* - *In exchange, the company will reinvest in U.S. oil, gas, and LNG infrastructure, marking a sharp policy pivot.* - *The move comes as global energy markets tighten due to geopolitical conflict and rising demand from AI and data centers.* *Donald Trump=E2=80=99s hatred for wind farms reached a new peak this week.= The President announced that the United States will pay $1 billion in taxpayer dollars to a French company to not build planned wind farms in leased federal waters off the coast of New York and North Carolina. Together, those wind projects would have supplied more than 4 gigawatts of clean electricity for households and businesses in the United States.* *Under the unusual deal , the French energy giant TotalEnergies would abandon its planned wind farms and annul the lease deal it made during the Biden administration. After the U.S. Treasury reimburses the company the $928 million it paid for those leases, the deal stipulates that TotalEnergies will reinvest that money in oil and gas projects in the United States. This would include a facility to export liquefied natural gas from Texas, ramping up oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, and building additional gas-powered plants.* *=E2=80=9CThe deal is an extraordinary transfer of taxpayer dollars to a fo= reign company for the purposes of boosting the production of fossil fuels, a main driver of climate change, while throttling offshore wind power,=E2=80=9D re= ads a New York Times article published earlier this week.* *While the Trump administration=E2=80=99s decision to axe a planned domesti= c energy project seems fuelled by personal vendetta and long-standing hatred for wind energy rather than energy security strategy, for France=E2=80=99s TotalEnergies, t= he deal is reportedly a pragmatic one. =E2=80=9CWhen the Trump administration came = to power and began setting U.S. energy policy, we said that we=E2=80=99ll have to reconsider, clearly, these offshore wind project developments,=E2=80=9D say= s Patrick Pouyann=C3=A9, the CEO of TotalEnergies. He said that without the Biden-era clean energy subsidies that have been cut by the Trump administration, the margins for such a project become much tougher in the United States. A $1 billion payout is therefore a pretty good alternative.* *=E2=80=9CTo be clear, we don=E2=80=99t renounce onshore wind,=E2=80=9D Pou= yann=C3=A9 went on to say. =E2=80=9CWe continue to invest in onshore solar, onshore wind, batteries [i= n other countries].=E2=80=9D* *This is just the latest in a long series of attacks on ongoing offshore wind projects in the United States on the part of the Trump administration. Last year, Trump tried to order an immediate halt to the construction of five wind projects along the East Coast of the U.S., but judges overturned this ruling across the board. This failure has led to the administration=E2=80=99s current tactic , paying off companies to cancel their wind power projects before they=E2=80= =99ve even begun.* *This most recent deal comes at a pivotal time in global energy markets. While it=E2=80=99s somewhat puzzling that the Trump administration would ch= oose to derail plans that would boost the United States=E2=80=99 energy independenc= e and resilience to oil market shocks, it stands to reason that the U.S. would be doing everything it can to boost liquefied natural gas output as oil and gas prices soar across the globe. Europe will also benefit from an increased flow of LNG out of the United States, which would not require navigating the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz.* *The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil trade passes on a normal day, has been closed to nearly all traffic for nearly a month now as the United States and Israel continue to wage war in Iran, and that closure is not likely to reverse any time soon . This energy crisis comes on top of another concurrent threat to global energy security =E2=80=93 the rapid rise of AI and data centers, which have= sent energy growth trends skyrocketing and global leaders scrambling to shore up energy security strategies.* *By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com* --000000000000370ecc064e2d777d Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://oilprice.com/E= nergy/Energy-General/The-High-Cost-of-Canceling-Offshore-Wind-in-the-United= -States.html
<= br>
3/2926

The High Cost of Canceling Offshore Wind = in the United States

3D"Offshore
  • The U.S. will reimburse TotalEnergies nearly $1 billion= to abandon offshore wind projects that could have generated over 4 GW of c= lean power.
  • In exchange, the company will reinvest i= n U.S. oil, gas, and LNG infrastructure, marking a sharp policy pivot.
  • The move comes as global energy markets tighten due to = geopolitical conflict and rising demand from AI and data centers.

Donald Trump=E2=80=99= s hatred for wind farms reached a new peak this week. The President announc= ed that the United States will pay $1 billion in taxpayer dollars to a Fren= ch company to not build planned wind farms in leased federal waters off the= coast of New York and North Carolina. Together, those wind projects would = have supplied more than 4 gigawatts of clean electricity for households and= businesses in the United States.

Under the=C2=A0unusual deal, the French energy giant TotalEnerg= ies would abandon its planned wind farms and annul the lease deal it made d= uring the Biden administration. After the U.S. Treasury reimburses the comp= any the $928 million it paid for those leases, the deal stipulates that Tot= alEnergies will reinvest that money in oil and gas projects in the United S= tates. This would include a facility to export liquefied natural gas from T= exas, ramping up oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, and building additio= nal gas-powered plants.

=E2=80=9CThe deal is an extraordinary transfer of taxpayer dollars t= o a foreign company for the purposes of boosting the production of fossil f= uels, a main driver of climate change, while throttling offshore wind power= ,=E2=80=9D reads a New York Times=C2=A0article=C2=A0published earlier this week.

While the Trump administrat= ion=E2=80=99s decision to axe a planned domestic energy project seems fuell= ed by=C2=A0personal vendetta=C2=A0and=C2=A0long-standing hatred=C2= =A0for wind energy rather than energy security strategy, for France= =E2=80=99s TotalEnergies, the deal is reportedly a pragmatic one. =E2=80=9C= When the Trump administration came to power and began setting U.S. energy p= olicy, we said that we=E2=80=99ll have to reconsider, clearly, these offsho= re wind project developments,=E2=80=9D says Patrick Pouyann=C3=A9, the CEO = of TotalEnergies. He said that without the Biden-era clean energy subsidies= that have been cut by the Trump administration, the margins for such a pro= ject become much tougher in the United States. A $1 billion payout is there= fore a pretty good alternative.

=E2=80=9CTo be clear, we don=E2=80=99t renounce onshore wind= ,=E2=80=9D Pouyann=C3=A9 went on to say. =E2=80=9CWe continue to invest in = onshore solar, onshore wind, batteries [in other countries].=E2=80=9D

This is just the lates= t in a long series of attacks on ongoing offshore wind projects in the Unit= ed States on the part of the Trump administration. Last year, Trump tried t= o order an immediate halt to the construction of five wind projects along t= he East Coast of the U.S., but judges overturned this ruling across the boa= rd. This failure has led to the administration=E2=80=99s=C2=A0= cur= rent tactic, paying off companies= to cancel their wind power projects before they=E2=80=99ve even begun.

This most recent dea= l comes at a pivotal time in global energy markets. While it=E2=80=99s some= what puzzling that the Trump administration would choose to derail plans th= at would boost the United States=E2=80=99 energy independence and resilienc= e to oil market shocks, it stands to reason that the U.S. would be doing ev= erything it can to boost liquefied natural gas output as oil and gas prices= soar across the globe. Europe will also benefit from an increased flow of = LNG out of the United States, which would not require navigating the chaos = in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil trade p= asses on a normal day, has been closed to nearly all traffic for nearly a m= onth now as the United States and Israel continue to wage war in Iran, and = that closure is=C2=A0not l= ikely to reverse any time soon. T= his energy crisis comes on top of another concurrent threat to global energ= y security =E2=80=93 the rapid rise of AI and data centers, which have sent= energy growth trends skyrocketing and global leaders scrambling to shore u= p energy security strategies.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com


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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 11:00:35 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:00:20 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzDtm9NpBPo02INFq4um3oOvfkHOByktd7IYFhm3IMzZfSoycnvsg3YoGZQ Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000d71dbc064e2d82ad" Subject: [Salon] =?utf-8?q?Israel_blocks_Latin_Patriarch_from_Holy_Sepulc?= =?utf-8?q?hre_on_Palm_Sunday_for_=E2=80=98first_time_in_centuries?= =?utf-8?b?4oCZ?= X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 18:00:38 -0000 --000000000000d71dbc064e2d82ad Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://thecradle.co/articles/israel-blocks-latin-patriarch-from-holy-sepu= lchre-on-palm-sunday-for-first-time-in-centuries * *Israel blocks Latin Patriarch from Holy Sepulchre on Palm Sunday for =E2=80=98first time in centuries=E2=80=99*Palestinian Christians suffer reg= ular persecution from Israel's ultra-Orthodox and religious nationalist Jews *News Desk 3/29/26* *The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem was prevented from holding Palm Sunday mass at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre "for the first time in centuries" on 29 March, after Israeli police blocked him and others from entering the church.* *Citing security concerns over the Iran war as a pretext, Israeli police stopped Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa and =E2=80=8CFriar Francesco Ielpo= while walking to the church, which was built on the site where Christians believe Jesus was crucified and resurrected from the dead nearly two thousand years ago.* *"As a result, and for the first time in centuries, the Heads of the Church were prevented from celebrating the Palm Sunday Mass at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre," the Latin Patriarchate said in a statement.* *"This incident is a grave precedent, and disregards the sensibilities of billions of people around the world who, during this week, look to Jerusalem," the statement added.* *Police said they had rejected a request from the Patriarchate for a Palm Sunday exemption, claiming that rescue vehicles could not access the site in the case of a mass casualty incident resulting from the war with Iran.* *Farid Jubran, a spokesperson for the Patriarchate, told Reuters that police had been informed that the mass would be held privately and behind closed doors. "But still, despite this communication, they insisted on acting this way," he explained.* *Palm Sunday marks the beginning of Holy Week and commemorates the day Christians believe Jesus entered Jerusalem, welcomed by his followers who placed palm leaves in his path as he rode into the city on a donkey. Easter is celebrated a week later, to mark Jesus's crucifixion and resurrection.* *Christian pilgrims typically throng to Jerusalem and nearby Bethlehem in the occupied West Bank to commemorate Easter. But few have come this year, after Israel and the US launched an unprovoked bombing campaign on Iran a month ago, causing Iran to respond with missile and drone attacks.* *Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni criticized the Israeli action. Denying entry to religious =E2=80=8Cleaders "constitutes an =E2=81=A0offens= e not only to believers but to every community that recognizes religious freedom," she stated.* *France's President Emmanuel Macron condemned the decision as well, saying that it "adds to the worrying increase in violations of the status of the Holy Places in Jerusalem."* *The Vatican did not respond to Reuters' request for comment.* *Under Israeli rule, Christians in the 1948 territories and the occupied West Bank suffer regular persecution, including spitting on clergy, physical harassment, and the vandalism and destruction of churches, cemeteries, and other Christian symbols.* *The harassment is carried out by ultra-Orthodox Jews and Jewish religious nationalists and goes largely unchecked by Israeli police.* *Since June of last year, Jewish settlers have regularly targeted the Christian town of Taybeh in the West Bank, including setting fire to Palestinian cars, spray-painting racist and threatening graffiti, burning homes, and vandalizing the ancient Christian cemetery and the fifth-century St. George (Al-Khader) Church.* *Earlier this month, Israeli forces blocked Palestinian Muslims from performing Eid al-Fitr prayers at Al-Aqsa Mosque for the first time since Israel's occupation of East Jerusalem in 1967.* *Hundreds of Palestinians attempted to pray in the streets and open areas leading up to the mosque after Israeli authorities closed the compound three weeks before, also using the war on Iran as a pretext.* *Al-Aqsa preacher Sheikh Ikrima Sabri told The New Arab that worshippers should perform Eid prayers in areas as near the mosque as possible.* *"We issued a religious ruling that whoever performs the prayer in the streets and squares leading to Al-Aqsa will receive the same reward as those who pray inside the mosque," Sabri stated.* *"This is the first Eid al-Fitr in which Eid prayers are not held in Al-Aqsa Mosque, because it has been closed since the US-Israeli war on Iran. This is an arbitrary and unjustified measure by the occupying authorities that violates freedom of worship and contradicts international conventions and norms," he added.* --000000000000d71dbc064e2d82ad Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<= h1 style=3D"line-height:1.2141em;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0.5em;max-wid= th:100%;font-family:"Times New Roman"">Israel blocks Latin Patriarch from Holy Sepulchre on Palm Sunda= y for =E2=80=98first time in centuries=E2=80=99

Palestinian Christians suffer regula= r persecution from Israel's ultra-Orthodox and religious nationalist Je= ws

3D""

The Latin Pa= triarch of Jerusalem was prevented from holding Palm Sunday mass at the Chu= rch of the Holy Sepulchre "for the first time in centuries" on 29= March, after Israeli police blocked him and others from entering the churc= h.

= Citing security concerns over the Iran war as a pretext, Israeli police sto= pped Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa and =E2=80=8CFriar Francesco Ielpo wh= ile walking to the church, which was built on the site where Christians bel= ieve Jesus was crucified and resurrected from the dead nearly two thousand = years ago.

"As a result, and for the first time in centuries, the Heads o= f the Church were prevented from celebrating the Palm Sunday Mass at the Ch= urch of the Holy Sepulchre," the Latin Patriarchate said in a statemen= t.

= "This incident is a grave precedent, and disregards the sensibilities = of billions of people around the world who, during this week, look to Jerus= alem," the statement added.

Police said they had rejected a request from the Pa= triarchate for a Palm Sunday exemption, claiming that rescue vehicles could= not access the site in the case of a mass casualty incident resulting from= the war with Iran.

Farid Jubran, a spokesperson for the Patriarchate,= =C2=A0told=C2=A0Reuters=C2=A0<= /span>that police had been informed that the mass would be held privately a= nd behind closed doors. "But still, despite this communication, they i= nsisted on acting this way," he explained.

Palm Sunday marks the beginn= ing of Holy Week and commemorates the day Christians believe Jesus entered = Jerusalem, welcomed by his followers who placed palm leaves in his path as = he rode into the city on a donkey. Easter is celebrated a week later, to ma= rk Jesus's crucifixion and resurrection.

Christian pilgrims typically throng to= Jerusalem and nearby Bethlehem in the occupied West Bank to commemorate Ea= ster. But few have come this year, after Israel and the US launched an unpr= ovoked bombing campaign on Iran a month ago, causing Iran to respond with m= issile and drone attacks.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni criticized the= Israeli action. Denying entry to religious =E2=80=8Cleaders "constitu= tes an =E2=81=A0offense not only to believers but to every community that r= ecognizes religious freedom," she stated.

France's President Emmanuel= Macron condemned the decision as well, saying that it "adds to the wo= rrying increase in violations of the status of the Holy Places in Jerusalem= ."

The Vatican did not=C2=A0respond=C2=A0to=C2=A0Reuters'=C2=A0request fo= r comment.

Under Israeli rule, Christians in the 1948 territories and the occu= pied West Bank suffer regular persecution, including spitting on clergy, ph= ysical harassment, and the vandalism and destruction of churches, cemeterie= s, and other Christian symbols.

The harassment is carried out by ultra-Orthodo= x Jews and Jewish religious nationalists and goes largely unchecked by Isra= eli police.

Since June of last year, Jewish settlers have regularly= =C2=A0targeted=C2=A0= the Christian town of Taybeh in the West Bank, including setting fir= e to Palestinian cars, spray-painting racist and threatening graffiti, burn= ing homes, and vandalizing the ancient Christian cemetery and the fifth-cen= tury St. George (Al-Khader) Church.

Earlier this month, Israeli forces blocked= Palestinian Muslims from performing Eid al-Fitr prayers at Al-Aqsa Mosque = for the first time since Israel's occupation of East Jerusalem in 1967.=

Hu= ndreds of Palestinians attempted to pray in the streets and open areas lead= ing up to the mosque after Israeli authorities closed the compound three we= eks before, also using the war on Iran as a pretext.

<= p style=3D"max-width:100%;font-family:"Times New Roman"">Al-Aqsa preacher Sheikh I= krima Sabri=C2=A0to= ld=C2=A0The New Arab=C2=A0that worshippers should = perform Eid prayers in areas as near the mosque as possible.<= /b>

= "We issued a= religious ruling that whoever performs the prayer in the streets and squar= es leading to Al-Aqsa will receive the same reward as those who pray inside= the mosque," Sabri stated.

"This is the first Eid al-Fitr in which Eid pr= ayers are not held in Al-Aqsa Mosque, because it has been closed since the = US-Israeli war on Iran. This is an arbitrary and unjustified measure by the= occupying authorities that violates freedom of worship and contradicts int= ernational conventions and norms," he added.

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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 11:48:42 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <20260329143135.3.3ec0ca2da7b268ab@mg-d1.substack.com> <1089687772.1296968.1774807331364@mail.yahoo.com> In-Reply-To: <1089687772.1296968.1774807331364@mail.yahoo.com> From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:48:26 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzDaVpcSXRKdnrTiqac7bfFKRanEfXW8hvbzvdX40aP8ebA8og87rDcHOZM Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000e11382064e2e2e21" Subject: [Salon] Somebody Tell Israel Journalism Is Not a Crime; Somebody Tell Israel To Stop Killing Journalists X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 18:48:45 -0000 --000000000000e11382064e2e2e21 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Israel kills another three journalists this time in Lebanon. The world watches silently. Our colleagues are targeted and we muffle our condemnation. 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The world watches silently. Our colleagues are targeted and we muffle our condemnation. I know of what I speak: STOP KILLING JOURNALISTS. Kathy Gannon Mar 29 I know of what I speak when I say STOP KILLING JOURNALISTS. My friend and colleague Anja Niedringhaus, a brilliant human being and amazing photographer was killed and I was seriously wounded, when an Afghan police commander opened fire on the two of us. The targeting of journalists in a war should never be met with impunity and silence and yet with Israel it is. It is wrong . This is a poster held at a protest in Pakistan by Pakistani journalists after Anja and I were attacked. Israel on Saturday targeted and killed three journalists in Lebanon, a crime Israel has committed countless times since the 2023 Hamas attacks in Israel when the world it would seem decided Israel=E2=80=99s right to self = defense trumped all humanitarian and international laws, justified genocide, the killing of 20,000 Gazan children, who are among the 70,000 Gazans Israel has killed in its brutal bombing campaign that continues today. Since signing a cease fire agreement last October, Israel has killed nearly 1,000 Gazans, and has allowed in only a trickle of aid, compared to the extraordinary need, seeking relentlessly to deny Gazans their dignity. But the world is mostly silent. Israel is allowed to operate with impunity. By refusing to take action against Israel, the world has shown there is no crime too horrific for Israel to commit. It has also openly and loudly declared that a Palestinian life, a Lebanese life, an Iranian life, a Syrian life counts for much less than that of an Israeli life. The world, by its silence, has also declared, in clear violation of Article 33 of the Geneva Convention which outlaws collective punishment, that because Hamas attacked Israel, all Palestinians are to blame, and because Hezbollah operates in Lebanon all Lebanese are to blame. As a result, the world has stood by and allowed Israel to destroy homes, schools, hospitals, mosques, churches, fertility clinics, apartment buildings, even steal another=E2=80=99s land and call it a buffer zone. In the occupied West Bank the Israeli army watches and aids illegal radical Israeli settlers who attack, kill and steal homes from Palestinians and the world watches with little more than a =E2=80=9Ctsk tsk, shouldn=E2=80=99t d= o=E2=80=9D. Reports of torture, beatings, and sexual crimes committed against Palestinians in Israeli jails are given only passing attention. There is no accountability, no international investigations, no sanctions. Nothing. In March 2024 The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon declared the Israeli forces targeted and killed =E2=80=9Cclearly identifiable=E2=80=9D j= ournalists. They fired a tank * a tank * at them. They killed Reuters=E2=80=99 Issam Ab= dallah, a veteran video journalist and Agence France-Presse (AFP) photojournalist Christina Assi, was seriously hurt. She lost her right leg. Six journalists were injured in that attack and Issam was killed. Nothing. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), a New York-based journalists=E2= =80=99 advocacy group, issued a report last month that said Israel was responsible for killing more journalists last year than every other country combined. Of the 129 journalists killed last year __ * a record number _*_ 86 were killed by Israel and most of them were Palestinians. There has been no accountability. No sanctions. Nothing. Since October 2023, Israel has killed more than 200 journalists, most of them Palestinians. Israel has targeted and killed families of Palestinian journalists, maimed others and denied access to Gaza for international journalists. Israel has also used a well known militant tactic, known as double tapping, which is to drop one bomb, wait maybe five minutes for journalists, first responders and often the curious to gather before dropping another killing them all. Israel does that. I have reported on militant terrorist groups using that tactic. It=E2=80=99s horrific . Israel does that but with impuni= ty. Last August Israel used that double tapping tactic to kill five journalists covering an Israeli bombing of a Gaza hospital. The first bomb fell, the reporters ran to cover the dead and dying when the second bomb hit. They died. Among them was 33-year-old Mariam Abu Dagga, who freelanced for The Associated Press. There has been no independent investigation. No blame. No accountability. Nothing. On Saturday Israel targeted a car in Lebanon and killed three journalists. They were Fatima Ftouni, her brother and video journalist, Mohammed Ftouni and Ali Shoeib. Shoeib was working for Al Manar TV, apparently affiliated with Hezbollah. The other two were not. They worked for the Beirut-based pan-Arab Al-Mayadeen TV. Fatima Ftouni had just finished a live report when Israel attacked. Shoeib was a well-known Lebanese war correspondent who had covered southern Lebanon for three decades. Journalism is not a crime. Journalists are not targets. I know of what I speak. My friend and colleague, Anja Niedringhaus, was killed by an Afghan police commander who emptied his AK-47 into her and myself. Anja died immediately. I was hit with 7 bullets, but survived with serious injuries. We are not targets. What we do is not a crime. The journalists=E2=80=99 com= munity has been too silent, too willing to accept Israeli explanations for its killings, stopping short of excusing Israel, but too often, too many have cast aspersions on our Palestinian colleagues questioning their credentials. Shame on all of us. =C2=A9 2026 Kathy Gannon --000000000000e11382064e2e2e21 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

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Israel kills another three journalists this time in Lebanon. Th= e world watches silently. Our colleagues are targeted and we muffle our con= demnation. I know of what I speak: STOP KILLING JOURNALISTS.
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=


Somebody Tell Israel Journalism Is = Not a Crime; Somebody Tell Israel To Stop Killing Journalists

Israel kills another three journali= sts this time in Lebanon. The world watches silently. Our colleagues are ta= rgeted and we muffle our condemnation. I know of what I speak: STOP KILLING= JOURNALISTS.

<= td align=3D"right">
=
=
Mar 29
=
=C2=A0

=


=C2=A0
3D""
I know of what I s= peak when I say STOP KILLING JOURNALISTS. My friend and colleague Anja Nied= ringhaus, a brilliant human being and amazing photographer was killed and I= was seriously wounded, when an Afghan police commander opened fire on the = two of us. The targeting of journalists in a war should never be met with i= mpunity and silence and yet with Israel it is. It is wrong . This is a post= er held at a protest in Pakistan by Pakistani journalists after Anja and I = were attacked.

Israel on Saturday targeted and killed three jo= urnalists in Lebanon, a crime Israel has committed countless times since th= e 2023 Hamas attacks in Israel when the world it would seem decided Israel= =E2=80=99s right to self defense trumped all humanitarian and international= laws, justified genocide, the killing of 20,000 Gazan children, who are am= ong the 70,000 Gazans Israel has killed in its brutal bombing campaign that= continues today.

Since signing a cease fire agreement last Oct= ober, Israel has killed nearly 1,000 Gazans, and has allowed in only a tric= kle of aid, compared to the extraordinary need, seeking relentlessly to den= y Gazans their dignity. But the world is mostly silent.


Israel is allowed to operate with impunity.

By = refusing to take action against Israel, the world has shown there is no cri= me too horrific for Israel to commit. It has also openly and loudly declare= d that a Palestinian life, a Lebanese life, an Iranian life, a Syrian life = counts for much less than that of an Israeli life.

The world, = by its silence, has also declared, in clear violation of Article 33 of the = Geneva Convention which outlaws collective punishment, that because Hamas a= ttacked Israel, all Palestinians are to blame, and because Hezbollah operat= es in Lebanon all Lebanese are to blame.

As a result, the world= has stood by and allowed Israel to destroy homes, schools, hospitals, mosq= ues, churches, fertility clinics, apartment buildings, even steal another= =E2=80=99s land and call it a buffer zone.

In the occupied West= Bank the Israeli army watches and aids illegal radical Israeli settlers wh= o attack, kill and steal homes from Palestinians and the world watches with= little more than a =E2=80=9Ctsk tsk, shouldn=E2=80=99t do=E2=80=9D.

Reports of torture, beatings, and sexual crimes committed against Pale= stinians in Israeli jails are given only passing attention.

Ther= e is no accountability, no international investigations, no sanctions.

<= p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:26px;font-size= :16px">Nothing.

In March 2024 The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon declared the Israeli forces = targeted and killed =E2=80=9Cclearly identifiable=E2=80=9D journalists.= They fired a tank a tank at them. Th= ey killed Reuters=E2=80=99 Issam Abdallah, a veteran video journalist and A= gence France-Presse (AFP) photojournalist Christina Assi, was seriously hur= t. She lost her right leg. Six journalists were injured in that attack and = Issam was killed.

Nothing.

The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), a New York-based journalis= ts=E2=80=99 advocacy group, issued a report last month that said Israel wa= s responsible for killing more journalists last year than every other count= ry combined. Of the 129 journalists killed last year __ a record number __ 86 were killed by Israel and most = of them were Palestinians.

There has been no accountabil= ity. No sanctions.

Nothing.

Since October 2023, Israe= l has killed more than 200 journalists, most of them Palestinians. Israel h= as targeted and killed families of Palestinian journalists, maimed others a= nd denied access to Gaza for international journalists.

Israel = has also used a well known militant tactic, known as double tapping, which= is to drop one bomb, wait maybe five minutes for journalists, first respon= ders and often the curious to gather before dropping another killing them a= ll. Israel does that. I have reported on militant terrorist groups using th= at tactic. It=E2=80=99s horrific . Israel does that but with impunity.

<= p style=3D"margin:0 0 20px 0;color:rgb(54,55,55);line-height:26px;font-size= :16px">Last August Israel used that double tapping tactic to kill five jour= nalists covering an Israeli bombing of a Gaza hospital. The first bomb fell= , the reporters ran to cover the dead and dying when the second bomb hit. T= hey died. Among them was 33-year-old Mariam Abu Dagga, who freelanced for T= he Associated Press.

There has been no independent investigation= . No blame. No accountability.

Nothing.

On Satu= rday Israel targeted a car in Lebanon and killed three journalists. They we= re Fatima Ftouni, her brother and video journalist, Mohammed Ftouni and Ali= Shoeib. Shoeib was working for Al Manar TV, apparently affiliated with Hez= bollah. The other two were not. They worked for the Beirut-based pan-Arab = Al-Mayadeen TV. Fatima Ftouni had just finis= hed a live report when Israel attacked. Shoeib was a well-known Lebanese wa= r correspondent who had covered southern Lebanon for three decades.

=

Journalism is not a crime. Journalists are not targets. I know of w= hat I speak. My friend and colleague, Anja Niedringhaus, was killed by an A= fghan police commander who emptied his AK-47 into her and myself. Anja died= immediately. I was hit with 7 bullets, but survived with serious injuries.=

We are not targets. What we do is not a crime. The journalists= =E2=80=99 community has been too silent, too willing to accept Israeli expl= anations for its killings, stopping short of excusing Israel, but too often= , too many have cast aspersions on our Palestinian colleagues questioning t= heir credentials. Shame on all of us.

=


=


=

=
<= tr>

=C2=A0=

=C2=A9 2026 Kathy Gannon

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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 11:50:42 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <1975413235.1206036.1774744198969.ref@mail.yahoo.com> <1975413235.1206036.1774744198969@mail.yahoo.com> In-Reply-To: <1975413235.1206036.1774744198969@mail.yahoo.com> From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:50:26 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzAwg8yfKcj-CZtRW2h9F0YAV_Oh1TXiN_3F7yfgO6vkuhygiBPeMTqYkv4 Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="00000000000005eb08064e2e36c7" Subject: [Salon] Comic Book Tough Guy X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 18:50:44 -0000 --00000000000005eb08064e2e36c7 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/2037649962473841091 Retired 4-Star General Barry McCaffrey drops a brutal reality check on Pete Hegseth, calling the Secretary of War a comic book tough guy. He exposes how the Trump administration has injected absolute chaos and hysteria into the Pentagon's decision making. --00000000000005eb08064e2e36c7 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://x.com/F= urkanGozukara/status/2037649962473841091
Retired 4-Star General Barry McCaffrey drops a brutal reality check on Pete= Hegseth, calling the Secretary of War a comic book tough guy. He exposes h= ow the Trump administration has injected absolute chaos and hysteria into t= he Pentagon's decision making.
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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 11:53:36 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <0d87b6e7-dfdc-49ad-8dae-2a360366a78d@gmail.com> In-Reply-To: <0d87b6e7-dfdc-49ad-8dae-2a360366a78d@gmail.com> From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:53:20 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzB4QpVTPKxqGeCpLHlizUJlQWpDvwm3xK4SaakefMfzEXjIIBPjTzkI7Y4 Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="00000000000069b752064e2e40d0" Subject: [Salon] Spain Shows How Countries Hosting U.S. Bases Can Push for Peace X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 18:53:39 -0000 --00000000000069b752064e2e40d0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/03/27/hosts-have-power-over-dangerous-gue= sts-spain-shows-how-countries-hosting-u-s-bases-can-push-for-peace [image: counterpunch logo] March 27, 2026 Hosts Have Power Over Dangerous Guests: Spain Shows How Countries Hosting U.S. Bases Can Push for Peace Sahar Khan =E2=80=93 David Vine KC-135 Stratotanker at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar. Photo: U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Matthew B. Fredericks. Amid a seeming flood of terrible news, the string of countries that last week refused President Donald Trump=E2=80=99s request to help patrol the Strait of Hormuz is an encouraging sign. For the first three weeks of a war that many experts have characterized as illegal under both U.S. and international law, Spain was initially the rare country to stand up to Trump by refusing to allow the use of U.S. bases it hosts for attacks on Iran. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez described the war as =E2=80=9Creckless and illegal,=E2=80=9D and continues to stand his g= round. Despite widespread global opposition to the attacks, the U.S. can wage the war in part because of its vast network of military bases in the Middle East, Europe, and beyond. Two U.S./Spanish bases in southern Spain are longstanding logistics hubs that have provided U.S. forces access to the Mediterranean Sea to launch military operations into Africa and the Middle East, including the 2003 U.S.-led war on Iraq . While Spain has said =E2=80=9Cno=E2=80=9D to the U.S. using its bases in a = new Middle East war, more than a dozen countries have allowed the use of U.S. installations on their soil as part of the conflict. Given the role these bases are playing in enabling the fighting, host countries share responsibility for the war, along with the U.S. and Israeli governments. Which means they share some responsibility for the war=E2=80= =99s killing and injury, displacement and destruction, for violations of international law, and for any potential war crimes, such as the killing of at least 165 civilians at the Minab girls school. The Spanish government and others hosting U.S. bases during prior conflicts have shown there is another path by refusing to support war. Countries hosting U.S. bases should be emboldened by governments refusing to assist in patrolling the Strait of Hormuz. They can and must put a stop to the U.S. government using their territory to support any aspect of this war other that any legitimate defense of their citizens. They can go further to pressure President Donald Trump to stop the fighting, which has already caused so much harm and risks spiraling out of control into complete global economic calamity and a regional (or even world) war that could significantly eclipse the damage of past conflicts in the Middle East. *The Infrastructure for War* Military bases, by design, provide infrastructure for war, not peace. The reason the Iranian military has attacked many of its neighbors is that they host U.S. bases, which are launching and supporting the planes and ships bombing Iran, and providing surveillance, communications, and logistical support to sustain the war. Qatar=E2=80=99s Al Udeid Air Base, for example, hosts the U.S. Central Comm= and, which oversees U.S. military operations in the Middle East and led the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bahrain is home to the Navy fleet for the entire region. Kuwait offers installations that serve as a major hub for the Army. Nearby, there are additional bases in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, Iraq, and Israel itself. In other conflicts, and especially in Africa since the start of the so-called war on terror, the U.S. military has used Mor=C3=B3n Air Base and Naval Station Rota as key launchpads for deploying military power. Because of Spain=E2=80=99s refusal to allow the use of its bases for= the Iran war, however, at least 15 U.S. aircraft=E2=80=94including critical KC-= 135 aerial refueling tankers=E2=80=94left Spain, with several landing at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. Ramstein is one of the most important bases for coordinating U.S. military operations globally, including drones and troop deployments. A nearby Army hospital treats seriously wounded military personnel from the war zones. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer initially refused to allow the use of U.S. bases in U.K.-controlled territory. He then reversed course and allowe= d a growing range of =E2=80=9Cdefensive operations =E2=80=9D from at least one base in Britain and one on British-controlled Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, following criticism from Trump and Iranian attacks on U.S./U.K. bases in Cyprus and Diego Garcia. Farther away, the secretive base in Pine Gap, Australia, is helping coordinate attacks, as it does almost all U.S. military operations worldwide. Dozens more installations in Italy, Portugal, Greece, Belgium, the Netherlands, Turkey, Djibouti, and possibly other countries may be providing at least some support for the war. Hosting U.S. bases that are helping wage an illegal war makes host countries complicit in the war and its destruction. =E2=80=9CWe are at war,= =E2=80=9D said Australian military expert and critic Richard Tanter, of his country. =E2= =80=9CWe are complicit=E2=80=A6most importantly through the intelligence facilities= =E2=80=9D at Pine Gap. Some Persian Gulf host governments, clearly motivated to stop ongoing Iranian retaliation against military and civilian infrastructure in their countries, claim their soil is not being used to attack Iran. This may be =E2=80=9Csuperficially accurate,=E2=80=9D as former George W. Bush administration official and Ret= ired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson communicated by email, given that some countries hosting U.S. installations are not immediate launchpads for missiles or planes attacking Iran. But bases throughout the region play support roles of various kinds to enable U.S. forces=E2=80=99 overall war effort. Even ba= ses hosting missile defense or radar surveillance sites perform command and control functions and allow offensive operations elsewhere. *The Power of =E2=80=9CNo=E2=80=9D * Given the enabling role bases play, host countries have the power to pressure Trump to stop the war, no matter the threats he may make. No bilateral military agreement or multinational alliance, such as NATO, prevents hosts from telling the U.S. government it can=E2=80=99t use bases = on their soil to violate international law. (The Cuban government is perhaps the only country unable to exert any power over a U.S. base on foreign territory.) Host countries can follow the Spanish government=E2=80=99s example: =E2=80= =9CSpanish bases are not being used for this operation,=E2=80=9D said Spanish Foreign Minister Jos=C3=A9 Manuel Albares, =E2=80=9Cand they will not be us= ed for anything not included in the [basing] agreement with the United States or for anything that is not in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations,=E2=80=9D which prohibits wars against other states except in cases of legitimate self-defense. In the past, other countries have barred the U.S. military from using their territory to support wars, such as when the Turkish government did so prior to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In the 1973 war between Israel and neighboring countries, almost all of Europe refused to allow the use of bases or even overflight rights during a U.S. airlift supporting Israel. The Swiss government, which hosts no foreign bases and has a long tradition of neutrality, similarly has refused two U.S. requests to fly over Switzerland in support of the Iran war (while allowing three flights by transportation and maintenance aircraft). It has also banned arms exports to the U.S. Host countries ultimately have the power to evict U.S. bases. Numerous countries have done so in the past, including France, the Philippines, Ecuador, Trinidad, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia (previously). Amid rising gas prices and protests criticizing the complicity of countries hosting U.S. bases in places like Greece and Italy , government opposition to the war is on the rise. Longtime European and Asian allies of the U.S., as well as China, are refusing Trump=E2=80=99s re= quest to send military patrols to the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has severely restricted shipping traffic. Leaders = in Italy, France, and the Netherlands are speaking out. Even in the UAE, a leading billionaire who has backed other U.S. initiatives publicly rebuked Trump for instigating a =E2=80=9Cmilitary escalation that endangers the entire region.=E2=80=9D Wit= h Persian Gulf countries having suffered serious damage in Iran=E2=80=99s retaliatory atta= cks, growing numbers are questioning the wisdom of hosting U.S. bases and broader relationships with the U.S. no matter their longstanding tensions with Iran. *The Powerful Thing to Do * President Trump has threatened to retaliate against Spain by cutting off all trade with the country. The Spanish government appears not to have budged from its position. Spain demonstrated that, even under threats of retaliation, base hosts have the power to say, in Prime Minister Sanchez=E2=80=99s words , =E2=80=9Cno to war.=E2=80=9D Trump could threaten other retaliation, especially against countries like Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan, whose militaries are deeply integrated with the U.S. military and which have long depended on U.S. security promises. These dynamics and proximity to Iran (Spain is far away) clearly make it harder, but not impossible, for some countries than others to say =E2=80=9Cno=E2=80= =9D and to push to stop the fighting. Some will say that getting host countries to pressure Trump to end the war is exactly what Iran=E2=80=99s leaders hope to accomplish by attacking thos= e hosts. While that may be one of Iran=E2=80=99s leaders=E2=80=99 aims, it=E2=80=99s= irrelevant. Preventing the U.S. government from waging an illegal war on the soil of host countries is the right thing to do. It is the thing to do to protect host countries=E2=80=99 citizens from attacks and help prevent further global ec= onomic disaster and an even more catastrophic war. It is also the legal and moral thing to do. Lives are on the line, lives are being ended, and the world needs everyone doing everything possible to help end the war. There is a growing wave of opposition to the war. Global public opinion was the start. Spain was next, followed by countries refusing to join Strait of Hormuz patrols. More countries hosting U.S. bases can further isolate Trump and Netanyahu, making it harder and harder to wage this abominable war. As Spanish journalist Paco Cerd=C3=A0 wrote in praising his government=E2=80=99s decision, =E2=80=9CThere are moments wher= e heroism is found in saying no.=E2=80=9D *Sahar Khan is a 2026 Nonresident Fellow at the Institute of Global Affairs, Eurasia Group and an independent analyst.* *David Vine is the author of *Base Nation: How U.S. Military Bases Abroad Harm America and the World* (Holt, 2015) and a former professor of anthropology at American University (2006=E2=80=932024).* --00000000000069b752064e2e40d0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://www.counterpunch.= org/2026/03/27/hosts-have-power-over-dangerous-guests-spain-shows-how-count= ries-hosting-u-s-bases-can-push-for-peace


=20
3D"counterpunch

March 27, 2026

Hosts Have Power Over Dangerous Guests:=C2=A0 Spain Shows How Countries Hosting U.S. Bases Can Push for Peace Sahar Khan = =E2=80=93 David Vine
3D""

KC-135 Stratotanker at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar. Photo: U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Matthew B. Fredericks.

Amid a seeming flood of terrible news, the string of countries that last week=C2=A0refused=C2=A0President Donald Trump=E2=80=99s request to help patrol the S= trait of Hormuz is an encouraging sign. For the first three weeks of a war that many=C2=A0experts=C2=A0have=C2=A0characterized=C2=A0as illegal under both U.S. and international law, Spain was initially the rare country to stand up to Trump by refusing to allow the use of U.S. bases it hosts for attacks on Iran. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez=C2=A0described=C2=A0the war as =E2=80=9Creckless and illegal,=E2=80=9D and cont= inues to stand his ground.

Despite widespread global opposition to the attacks, the U.S. can wage the war in part because of its vast=C2=A0network=C2=A0of military bases in the Middle East, Europe, and beyond. Two U.S./Spanish bases in southern Spain are longstanding logistics hubs that have provided U.S. forces access to the Mediterranean Sea to launch military operations into Africa and the Middle East, including the 2003 U.S.-led war on=C2= =A0Iraq. While Spain has said =E2=80=9Cno=E2=80=9D to the U.S. using its= bases in a new Middle East war, more than a dozen countries have allowed the use of U.S. installations on their soil as part of the conflict.

Given the role these bases are playing in enabling the fighting, host countries share responsibility for the war, along with the U.S. and Israeli governments. Which means they share some responsibility for the war=E2=80=99s killing and in= jury, displacement and destruction, for violations of international law, and for any potential war crimes, such as the=C2=A0killing=C2=A0of at least 165 civilians at the Minab girls school.

The Spanish government and others hosting U.S. bases during prior conflicts have shown there is another path by refusing to support war. Countries hosting U.S. bases should be emboldened by governments refusing to assist in patrolling the Strait of Hormuz. They can and must put a stop to the U.S. government using their territory to support any aspect of this war other that any legitimate defense of their citizens. They can go further to pressure President Donald Trump to stop the fighting, which has already caused so much harm and risks spiraling out of control into complete global economic calamity and a regional (or even world) war that could significantly eclipse the damage of past conflicts in the Middle East.

T= he Infrastructure for War

Military bases, by design,=C2=A0provide=C2=A0infrastructure for war, not peace. The reason the Iranian military has attacked many of its neighbors is that they host U.S. bases, which are launching and supporting the planes and ships bombing Iran, and providing surveillance, communications, and logistical support to sustain the war.

Qatar=E2= =80=99s Al Udeid Air Base, for example, hosts the U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. military operations in the Middle East and led the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bahrain is home to the Navy fleet for the entire region. Kuwait offers installations that serve as a major hub for the Army. Nearby, there are additional bases in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, Iraq, and Israel itself.

In other conflicts, and especially in Africa since the start of the so-called war on terror, the U.S. military has used=C2=A0Mor=C3=B3n Air Base and=C2= =A0Naval Station Rota as key launchpads for deploying military power.=C2=A0Because of Spain=E2=80=99s ref= usal to allow the use of its bases for the Iran war, however, at least 15 U.S. aircraft=E2=80=94includin= g critical KC-135 aerial refueling tankers=E2=80=94left=C2=A0Spain, with several landing at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

Ramstein is one of the most important bases for coordinating U.S. military operations globally, including drones and troop deployments. A nearby Army hospital treats seriously wounded military personnel from the war zones.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer initially refused to allow the use of U.S. bases in U.K.-controlled territory. He then reversed course and=C2=A0allowed=C2=A0a growing range of =E2=80=9Cdefensive operati= ons=E2=80=9D from at least one base in Britain and one on British-controlled Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, following criticism from Trump and Iranian=C2=A0attacks=C2=A0on U.S./U.K. bases in Cyprus and Diego Garcia.<= /p>

Farther away, the secretive base in Pine Gap, Australia, is= =C2=A0helping=C2=A0coordinate attacks, as it does almost all U.S. military operations worldwide. Dozens more installations in Italy, Portugal, Greece, Belgium, the Netherlands, Turkey, Djibouti, and possibly other countries may be providing at least some support for the war.

Hosting U.S. bases that are helping wage an illegal war makes host countries complicit in the war and its destruction. =E2=80=9CWe are at war,=E2=80=9D=C2=A0said Australian military expert and critic=C2=A0Richard Tanter, of his country. =E2=80=9CWe are complicit=E2=80=A6most= importantly through the intelligence facilities=E2=80=9D at Pin= e Gap.

Some Persian Gulf host governments, clearly motivated to stop ongoing Iranian retaliation against military and civilian infrastructure in their countries,=C2=A0claim=C2=A0their soil is not being used to attack Iran. This may be =E2=80=9Csuperficially accurate,=E2=80=9D as former= George W. Bush administration official and Retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson communicated by email, given that some countries hosting U.S. installations are not immediate launchpads for missiles or planes attacking Iran. But bases throughout the region play support roles of various kinds to enable U.S. forces=E2=80=99 overall war effort. Eve= n bases hosting missile defense or radar surveillance sites perform command and control functions and allow offensive operations elsewhere.

T= he Power of =E2=80=9CNo=E2=80=9D=C2=A0

Given the enabling role bases play, host countries have the power to pressure Trump to stop the war, no matter the threats he may make. No bilateral military agreement or multinational alliance, such as NATO, prevents hosts from telling the U.S. government it can=E2=80=99t use ba= ses on their soil to violate international law. (The Cuban government is perhaps the only country unable to exert any power over a U.S. base on foreign territory.)

Host countries can follow the Spanish government=E2=80= =99s example: =E2=80=9CSpanish bases are not being used = for this operation,=E2=80=9D=C2=A0said=C2=A0Spanish Foreign Minister Jos=C3=A9 Manuel Albares, =E2=80= =9Cand they will not be used for anything not included in the [basing] agreement with the United States or for anything that is not in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations,=E2=80=9D which=C2=A0prohibits=C2=A0wars against other states except in cases of legitimate self-defense.

In the past, other countries have barred the U.S. military from using their territory to support wars, such as when the=C2=A0Turkish=C2= =A0government did so prior to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In the 1973 war between Israel and neighboring countries, almost all of Europe=C2=A0refused<= /a>=C2=A0to allow the use of bases or even overflight rights during a U.S. airlift supporting Israel. The Swiss government, which hosts no foreign bases and has a long tradition of neutrality, similarly has=C2=A0refused= =C2=A0two U.S. requests to fly over Switzerland in support of the Iran war (while allowing three flights by transportation and maintenance aircraft). It has also=C2=A0banned=C2=A0arms exports to the U.S.

Host countries ultimately have the power to evict U.S. bases. Numerous countries=C2=A0ha= ve done so=C2=A0in the past, including France, the Philippines, Ecuador, Trinidad, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia (previously).

Amid rising gas prices and protests criticizing the complicity of countries hosting U.S. bases in places like=C2=A0Greece=C2=A0and=C2=A0Italy, government opposition to the war is on the rise. Longtime European and Asian allies of the U.S., as well as China, are=C2=A0refusing=C2=A0Trump=E2=80=99s re= quest to send military patrols to the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has severely restricted shipping traffic.=C2= =A0Leaders=C2=A0in Italy, France, and the Netherlands are speaking out.

Even in the UAE, a leading billionaire who has backed other U.S. initiatives publicly rebuked Trump for=C2=A0instigating=C2=A0a =E2=80=9Cmilitary escalation that endangers the ent= ire region.=E2=80=9D With Persian Gulf countries having suffered serious damage in Iran=E2=80=99s retaliato= ry attacks, growing numbers are questioning the=C2=A0<= a href=3D"https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/04/iran-united-states-war-gulf-= states-alliances/" target=3D"_blank">wisdom=C2=A0of hosting U.S. bases and broader=C2=A0relationships=C2=A0with the U.S. no matter their longstanding tensions with Iran.

T= he Powerful Thing to Do=C2=A0=C2=A0<= /p>

President Trump has threatened to retaliate against Spain by cutting off all trade with the country. The Spanish government=C2=A0appears=C2=A0not to have budged from its position.=C2=A0Spain demonstrated that, even under threats of retaliation, base hosts have the power to say, in Prime Minister Sanchez=E2=80=99s=C2=A0words, =E2=80=9Cno to war.=E2=80=9D

Trump could threaten other retaliation, especially against countries like Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan, whose militaries are deeply integrated with the U.S. military and which have long depended on U.S. security promises. These dynamics and proximity to Iran (Spain is far away) clearly make it harder, but not impossible, for some countries than others to say =E2=80=9Cno=E2=80=9D and to push to stop the fi= ghting.

Some will say that getting host countries to pressure Trump to end the war is exactly what Iran=E2=80=99s leaders hope to accomplish by attacking those hosts. While that may be one of Iran=E2=80=99s lead= ers=E2=80=99 aims, it=E2=80=99s irrelevant. Preventing the U.S. government from waging an illegal war on the soil of host countries is the right thing to do. It is the thing to do to protect host countries=E2= =80=99 citizens from attacks and help prevent further global economic disaster and an even more catastrophic war. It is also the legal and moral thing to do. Lives are on the line, lives are being ended, and the world needs everyone doing everything possible to help end the war.

There is a growing wave of opposition to the war. Global public opinion was the start. Spain was next, followed by countries refusing to join Strait of Hormuz patrols. More countries hosting U.S. bases can further isolate Trump and Netanyahu, making it harder and harder to wage this abominable war. As Spanish journalist Paco Cerd=C3= =A0=C2=A0wrote=C2=A0in prais= ing his government=E2=80=99s decision, =E2=80=9CThere a= re moments where heroism is found in saying no.=E2=80=9D

Sahar Khan is a 2026 Nonresident Fellow at the Institute of Global Affairs, Eurasia Group and an independent analyst.

David Vine is the author of Base Nation: How U.S. Military Bases Abroad Harm America and the World (Holt, 2015) and a former professor of anthropology at American University (2006=E2=80=932024).

<= /div>
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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 11:56:40 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:56:25 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzB5nbQqK12YmH7WJ5MwKbBYz1UJXQFoaLV9XW_3_0RRT9N2RZwYqOuXaok Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="00000000000064bba8064e2e4b4e" Subject: [Salon] =?utf-8?q?Trump=E2=80=99s_Iran_war=3A_could_Republican_r?= =?utf-8?q?ift_and_Maga_discontent_doom_midterms=3F?= X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 18:56:43 -0000 --00000000000064bba8064e2e4b4e Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3348205/trumps-iran-war-= could-republican-rift-and-maga-discontent-doom-midterms?module=3Dtop_story&= pgtype=3Dhomepage * *Trump=E2=80=99s Iran war: could Republican rift and Maga discontent doom m= idterms?* *29 Mar 2026* *[image: A recent poll has found that 79 per cent of Americans who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 would support a declaration of victory and quick end to the war on Iran. Photo: Getty Images via AFP]* *US President Donald Trump=E2=80=99s war on Iran has not only exposed White House decision-making flaws but also =E2=80=9Cclear = cracks=E2=80=9D within the Republican Party and his political base, observers in China say, warning of the risks posed to the party=E2=80=99s midterm prospects.* *As the US-Israel war with Iran enters its fifth week, mixed signals from Trump and his administration continue to trigger questions about the trajectory of Operation Epic Fury and the exit strategy.* *Trump has repeatedly claimed victory, most recently on Tuesday, when he said that a deal on ending the war could be in sight.* *But on Wednesday, the White House warned that Trump was ready to =E2=80=9C= unleash hell=E2=80=9D on Iran if Tehran did not accept a peace deal. On Friday, Tru= mp warned that the war with Iran was =E2=80=9Cnot finished=E2=80=9D, and that = the US had thousands of targets left to strike in Iran.* *The risk of escalation continued to soar over the weekend as American military officials announced on Saturday that more than 3,500 US troops had arrived in the Middle East.* *The Pentagon is reportedly preparing a =E2=80=9Cfinal blow=E2=80=9D agains= t Iran, including weeks of ground operations.* *Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen also entered the war on Saturday, launching ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time in the current conflict.* *In the US, demonstrators in cities across the nation rallied over the weekend as part of the =E2=80=9CNo Kings=E2=80=9D protests against the war,= federal immigration enforcement and the rising cost of living.* *02:39* *Trump claims Iran=E2=80=99s =E2=80=98present=E2=80=99 was to allow 10 oil = tankers through the Strait of Hormuz* *There is growing disquiet within Trump=E2=80=99s support base over the han= dling of the conflict, with unease also appearing to mount among officials.* *On March 17, top counterterrorism official Joe Kent resigned over the war on Iran, saying the country had posed =E2=80=9Cno imminent threat= =E2=80=9D to America and he could not =E2=80=9Cin good conscience support the ongoing wa= r=E2=80=9D.* *Chinese observers noted that Kent=E2=80=99s resignation =E2=80=93 coupled = with Trump=E2=80=99s inconsistent messaging on the objectives, scale and duration of the operation =E2=80=93 had exposed the deepening fractures within the presiden= t=E2=80=99s war room.* *The administration failed to fully prepare for the military campaign, they argued, citing a lack of in-depth assessment and long-term planning.* *Diao Daming, a professor of international relations at Renmin University, said the Trump administration=E2=80=99s views on the war broadly fell into = three camps.* *One, an establishment wing of mainstream political and economic policymakers, who were seeking a quick off-ramp from the conflict to contain oil prices and limit electoral fallout.* *The second, a group of Republican hawks such as Senator Lindsey Graham and Senate intelligence committee chairman Tom Cotton, who were pushing for greater pressure on Iran and seeking regime change. But this camp=E2=80=99s influence might be waning in the face of a looming protracted conflict, Diao noted.* *03:00* *Civilian deaths in Iran believed to be more than 1,400: rights agency* *The third camp was the Maga faction, which believed from the start that the US should not have got involved in an endless foreign war that brought no benefit to Americans, Diao said. This group had grown deeply disappointed with Trump for breaking his =E2=80=9CAmerica first=E2=80=9D pr= omise and wanted the conflict to end as quickly as possible by whatever means possible.* *=E2=80=9CAs the Republican coalition=E2=80=99s biggest common denominator,= Trump has been able to unify its different factions by emphasising an =E2=80=98America fir= st=E2=80=99 agenda and the promise to =E2=80=98Make America Great Again=E2=80=99,=E2=80= =9D Diao said.* *=E2=80=9CBut his decision to use force in Iran may have weakened that cohe= sion, heightening internal disagreements.=E2=80=9D* *Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Shanghai=E2=80=99s Fudan University, said: =E2=80=9CKent=E2=80=99s resignat= ion highlights clear cracks within the Trump administration, particularly inside the Maga camp, over the war with Iran.=E2=80=9D* *This internal unease could date back to June last year, when the United States and Israel attacked Iranian nuclear and military facilities in a brief but intense 12-day war.* *The divisions were likely to endure, Zhao cautioned, adding that the war= =E2=80=99s ultimate outcome would play a decisive role in either deepening or reshaping these rifts over America=E2=80=99s global strategy and approach t= o foreign intervention.* *He also noted =E2=80=9Ca subtle division=E2=80=9D within the Maga camp =E2= =80=93 between elite opinion leaders who strongly questioned the rationale of the war and grass-roots voters who largely continued to support Trump=E2=80=99s actions= .* *00:56* *US says Iran=E2=80=99s Supreme Leader likely wounded and disfigured* *The war had already exceeded Trump=E2=80=99s initial four-week timeline, b= ut a dramatic policy reversal was still possible, Zhao said, given his established pattern of unpredictable foreign policy.* *Li Haimo, an assistant professor in the political science department at Fudan University, said opposition within the Republican camp came from diverse quarters, including those concerned that war with Iran could undermine the strategic US focus on China.* *He pointed to well-known national conservatives such as Vice-President J.D. Vance, Senator Josh Hawley and key White House aide Stephen Miller, inner circle members who broadly support Trump but have argued against deploying ground troops and called for a swift victory declaration and withdrawal.* *A poll released on March 18 bolstered their suggestion. Commissioned by the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and The American Conservative magazine, the poll found 79 per cent of Americans who voted for Trump in 2024 would support a declaration of victory and quick end to the war.* *As oil prices rose, economic pressures mounted, and anxieties over the election outlook intensified, the establishment wing=E2=80=99s influence wa= s likely to grow, Diao said.* *The White House says talks with Iran are proceeding apace, with Trump asserting that Tehran is desperate to reach a deal, even though Iran has yet to agree to the US proposal to end the war.* *If the war dragged on and deepened internal divisions, the Maga faction might become more isolationist, conservative and extreme, potentially distancing itself from the Republican mainstream, Diao said, warning of reduced turnout at the November midterm elections.* *He said affordability and the cost of living were core issues hurting Republicans even before the Iran war, and heavier losses might be on the cards as the conflict sends energy and food prices soaring.* *=E2=80=9CEven before the Iran war, Republicans were already expected to lo= se the House [of Representatives], while only narrowly holding the Senate. More recently, the possibility of Republicans also losing the Senate [has] increased.=E2=80=9D* --00000000000064bba8064e2e4b4e Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https:= //www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3348205/trumps-iran-war-could-r= epublican-rift-and-maga-discontent-doom-midterms?module=3Dtop_story&pgt= ype=3Dhomepage

Trump=E2=80=99s Iran war: could Republican rift = and Maga discontent doom midterms?

29 Mar 2026
3D"A
US President Donald Trump=E2=80=99s=C2=A0war on Iran=C2= =A0has not only exposed White House decision-making flaws but also = =E2=80=9Cclear cracks=E2=80=9D within the Republican Party and his politica= l base, observers in China say, warning of the risks posed to the party=E2= =80=99s midterm prospects.
As the US-Israel war with Iran enters its fifth we= ek,=C2=A0mixed signals=C2=A0from Trump and his admin= istration continue to trigger questions about the trajectory of Operation E= pic Fury and the exit strategy.

Trump has repeatedly claimed victory, most rece= ntly on Tuesday, when he said that a deal on ending the war could be in sig= ht.

Bu= t on Wednesday, the White House warned that Trump was ready to =E2=80=9Cunl= eash hell=E2=80=9D on Iran if Tehran did not accept a peace deal. On Friday= , Trump warned that the war with Iran was =E2=80=9Cnot finished=E2=80=9D, a= nd that the US had thousands of targets left to strike in Iran.<= /p>

The risk of escal= ation continued to soar over the weekend as American military officials ann= ounced on Saturday that more than 3,500 US troops had arrived in the Middle= East.

The Pentagon is reportedly preparing a =E2=80=9Cfinal blow=E2=80=9D agains= t Iran, including weeks of ground operations.

Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yem= en also entered the war on Saturday, launching ballistic missiles at Israel= for the first time in the current conflict.

In the US, demonstrators in cities a= cross the nation rallied over the weekend as part of the =E2=80=9CNo Kings= =E2=80=9D protests against the war, federal immigration enforcement and the= rising cost of living.

02:39

Trump claims Iran=E2=80=99s =E2=80=98prese= nt=E2=80=99 was to allow 10 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz=

There is growing disquiet within = Trump=E2=80=99s support base over the handling of the conflict, with unease= also appearing to mount among officials.

<= div style=3D"max-width:100%">On March 17,= =C2=A0top counterterrorism official Joe Kent resigned=C2= =A0over the war on Iran, saying the country had posed =E2=80=9Cno im= minent threat=E2=80=9D to America and he could not =E2=80=9Cin good conscie= nce support the ongoing war=E2=80=9D.

Chinese observers noted that Kent=E2=80= =99s resignation =E2=80=93 coupled with Trump=E2=80=99s inconsistent messag= ing on the objectives, scale and duration of the operation =E2=80=93 had ex= posed the deepening fractures within the president=E2=80=99s war room.

The admini= stration failed to fully prepare for the military campaign, they argued, ci= ting a lack of in-depth assessment and long-term planning.

Diao Daming, a profess= or of international relations at Renmin University, said the Trump administ= ration=E2=80=99s views on the war broadly fell into three camps.=

One, an establishment wing of mainstream political and economic policymak= ers, who were seeking a quick off-ramp from the conflict to contain oil pri= ces and limit electoral fallout.

The second, a group of Repub= lican hawks such as Senator Lindsey Graham and Senate intelligence committe= e chairman Tom Cotton, who were pushing for greater pressure on Iran and se= eking regime change. But this camp=E2=80=99s influence might be waning in t= he face of a looming protracted conflict, Diao noted.

03:00

Civilian deaths in Iran beli= eved to be more than 1,400: rights agency

<= /div>

The third camp was the Maga faction, which believed from the= start that the US should not have got involved in an endless foreign war t= hat brought no benefit to Americans, Diao said. This group had grown deeply= disappointed with Trump for breaking his =E2=80=9CAmerica first=E2=80=9D p= romise and wanted the conflict to end as quickly as possible by whatever me= ans possible.

<= b>=E2=80=9CAs the Republican coalition=E2=80=99s bi= ggest common denominator, Trump has been able to unify its different factio= ns by emphasising an =E2=80=98America first=E2=80=99 agenda and the promise= to =E2=80=98Make America Great Again=E2=80=99,=E2=80=9D Diao said.<= /b>

=E2=80=9CBut = his decision to use force in Iran may have weakened that cohesion, heighten= ing internal disagreements.=E2=80=9D

Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute o= f International Studies at Shanghai=E2=80=99s Fudan University, said: =E2= =80=9CKent=E2=80=99s resignation highlights clear cracks within the Trump a= dministration, particularly inside the Maga camp, over the war with Iran.= =E2=80=9D

This internal unease could date back to June last year, when the United= States and Israel attacked Iranian nuclear and military facilities in a br= ief but intense 12-day war.

The divisions were likely to endure, Zhao cautioned, = adding that the war=E2=80=99s ultimate outcome would play a decisive role i= n either deepening or reshaping these rifts over America=E2=80=99s global s= trategy and approach to foreign intervention.

He also noted =E2=80=9Ca subtle div= ision=E2=80=9D within the Maga camp =E2=80=93 between elite opinion leaders= who strongly questioned the rationale of the war and grass-roots voters wh= o largely continued to support Trump=E2=80=99s actions.

00:56

US says Iran=E2=80=99s Supreme Leader likely wounded and disfigured

The war had already exceeded= Trump=E2=80=99s initial four-week timeline, but a dramatic policy reversal= was still possible, Zhao said, given his established pattern of unpredicta= ble foreign policy.

Li Haimo, an assistant professor in the pol= itical science department at Fudan University, said opposition within the R= epublican camp came from diverse quarters, including those concerned that w= ar with Iran could undermine the strategic US focus on China.

He pointed to well-= known national conservatives such as Vice-President J.D. Vance, Senator Jos= h Hawley and key White House aide Stephen Miller, inner circle members who = broadly support Trump but have argued against deploying ground troops and c= alled for a swift victory declaration and withdrawal.

A poll released on March 18= bolstered their suggestion. Commissioned by the Quincy Institute for Respo= nsible Statecraft and The American Conservative magazine, the poll found 79= per cent of Americans who voted for Trump in 2024 would support a declarat= ion of victory and quick end to the war.

As oil prices rose, economic pressures m= ounted, and anxieties over the election outlook intensified, the establishm= ent wing=E2=80=99s influence was likely to grow, Diao said.

<= p style=3D"max-width:100%">The White House says = talks with Iran are proceeding apace, with Trump asserting that Tehran is d= esperate to reach a deal, even though Iran has yet to agree to the US propo= sal to end the war.

If the war dragged on and deepened internal divisions, the Ma= ga faction might become more isolationist, conservative and extreme, potent= ially distancing itself from the Republican mainstream, Diao said, warning = of reduced turnout at the November midterm elections.

He said affordability and t= he cost of living were core issues hurting Republicans even before the Iran= war, and heavier losses might be on the cards as the conflict sends energy= and food prices soaring.

=E2=80=9CEven before the Iran war, Republicans were alr= eady expected to lose the House [of Representatives], while only narrowly h= olding the Senate. More recently, the possibility of Republicans also losin= g the Senate [has] increased.=E2=80=9D



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the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 19:03:09 -0000 --0000000000006638b5064e2e6223 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable A reported attack on a drone defense site in the Gulf points to a widening, interconnected conflict landscape =CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD= =CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD= =CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD= =CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 = =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 = =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 = =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F = =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F =E2=80=87 =C2=AD=CD=8F 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Subscribe here for more Ukraine=E2=80=99s Gulf Expansion Tested by Reported Strike in UAE A reported attack on a drone defense site in the Gulf points to a widening, interconnected conflict landscape Global GeoPolitics Mar 29 READ IN APP Recent developments spanning the Middle East and Eastern Europe point to a potentially significant shift in how contemporary conflicts are structured, extending beyond geographically contained wars into interconnected theatres shaped by shared capabilities, strategic signaling, and alliance recalibration. Claims by Iran=E2=80=99s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps o= f a precision strike in Dubai targeting a facility allegedly linked to Ukrainian air defense and counter-drone operations, alongside reports of a parallel strike on U.S.-associated infrastructure, remain unverified by officials in the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, or Washington. However, even as unconfirmed information, the claim itself functions as a strategic signal within an increasingly complex deterrence environment. At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accelerated defense engagement with Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, focusing on air defense cooperation, counter-UAV systems, and long-term security arrangements. Ukraine=E2=80=99s battlefield experience against Russian drone warfare has effectively become an exportable strategic commodity, transforming it from a recipient of security assistance into a provider of niche military expertise. This repositioning carries implications that can be better understood through classical geopolitical theory and game-theoretic frameworks. >From a balance-of-power perspective, the situation reflects elements of both classical realism and neorealism, where states respond not only to immediate threats but to shifts in capability distribution. Iran=E2=80=99s potential targeting of Ukrainian-linked assets, if accurate, can be interpreted through the lens of preventive deterrence: acting early to disrupt an emerging capability that could alter the regional balance. In this framing, Ukrainian deployments in the Gulf may be perceived in Tehran not as neutral technical assistance but as a force multiplier for U.S.-aligned infrastructure, effectively extending adversarial capacity closer to Iranian strategic depth. *( Khatam al-Anbiya (PBUH) Central Headquarters: Destruction of a storage depot for Ukrainian anti-drone systems in the IRGC missile operation on Dubai. At the same time as the hideouts of American commanders and soldiers in Dubai were targeted, causing them heavy casualties, a storage depot containing anti-drone systems belonging to Ukraine, which was present in Dubai to assist the U.S. military, was also targeted and destroyed in a combined operation by the Aerospace and Naval Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. There were also 21 Ukrainians present at that location. There is no information available about the fate of the Ukrainian personnel present at the site, who are likely to have been killed. Morever Heavy casualties among more than 500 American soldiers.)* Game theory offers a useful structure for interpreting the interaction. The situation resembles a multi-player extension of a repeated signaling game under conditions of incomplete information. Each actor, Iran, the United States, Gulf states, and Ukraine, operates with partial visibility into the intentions and thresholds of the others. Ukraine=E2=80=99s deployment of counter-drone systems can be modeled as a cooperative move within a coalition framework, increasing collective defense utility. Iran=E2=80=99s = claimed strike, in turn, functions as a costly signal intended to demonstrate both capability and willingness to escalate horizontally across theatres. In deterrence theory, credibility is built not only through capability but through demonstrated action. If Iran did conduct or credibly signal such a strike, it may be attempting to shift the perceived payoff matrix: raising the cost of Ukrainian involvement in the Gulf while testing U.S. and allied response thresholds. The ambiguity surrounding verification further enhances the signaling effect, as uncertainty itself becomes a strategic tool, forcing adversaries to consider worst-case interpretations without providing a clear escalation trigger. Ukraine=E2=80=99s evolving role also illustrates a transition from a single= -theatre conflict actor to what might be described as a =E2=80=9Ccapability broker= =E2=80=9D in a networked security environment. Its comparative advantage lies not in traditional force projection but in highly specialized knowledge derived from intensive exposure to modern drone warfare. This aligns with broader trends in military transformation, where operational experience, particularly in emerging domains like unmanned systems, electronic warfare, and adaptive tactics, becomes as valuable as hardware. Classical theorists such as Carl von Clausewitz emphasised that war is a continuation of politics by other means, but in this case the inverse dynamic is also visible: political relationships are increasingly shaped by the transfer and deployment of war-derived expertise. Meanwhile, Thomas Schelling highlighted the importance of coercion and signaling in strategic interaction; here, both Ukraine=E2=80=99s deployments and Iran=E2=80=99s re= sponse, real or claimed, fit within a framework of compellence and deterrence bargaining rather than direct confrontation. The situation also reflects elements of what some scholars describe as =E2=80=9Centangled security dilemmas.=E2=80=9D Gulf states, seeking protect= ion against drone threats, particularly from Iranian or Iran-aligned actors, may rationally pursue partnerships with actors like Ukraine. However, this very move increases Iranian threat perception, prompting countermeasures that, in turn, validate Gulf security concerns. The cycle is self-reinforcing, with each defensive action interpreted as offensive preparation by the other side. Russia=E2=80=99s position introduces an additional layer of strategic symme= try. As Ukraine expands its cooperative footprint with U.S.-aligned partners, Moscow has incentives to deepen coordination with Iran, particularly in areas such as drone technology and sanctions evasion. This creates a mirrored structure of indirect competition, where both sides leverage partners and proxies across multiple regions without necessarily engaging in direct confrontation. The result resembles a distributed form of great-power competition, less rigid than Cold War blocs but similarly global in scope. >From a systems perspective, the diffusion of drone warfare expertise marks a departure from traditional military hierarchies. Unlike nuclear weapons or advanced aircraft, drone systems and countermeasures are comparatively accessible, adaptable, and rapidly iterated. This lowers the barrier to entry for meaningful participation in high-impact military operations, enabling mid-tier powers and even non-state actors to influence strategic outcomes. Ukraine=E2=80=99s role in exporting such expertise underscores ho= w knowledge transfer can reshape regional security architectures. Statements attributed to Donald Trump denying U.S. reliance on Ukrainian assistance introduce further complexity, highlighting potential divergence between public messaging and operational coordination. In game-theoretic terms, such statements may be interpreted as attempts to maintain strategic ambiguity, reduce perceived escalation, or manage domestic political considerations, even as underlying cooperation continues or evolves. Ultimately, whether or not the reported strike occurred as described, the convergence of Ukrainian military outreach, Gulf security concerns, and Iranian signaling behavior illustrates a broader transformation in conflict dynamics. Warfare is no longer confined to clearly bounded battlefields; instead, capabilities, personnel, and strategic effects are increasingly transnational, creating a system in which local actions can have global reverberations. The risk is not simply escalation in a single region, but the emergence of a tightly coupled network of conflicts, where moves in one theatre alter the strategic calculus in another, raising the stakes of miscalculation across the entire system. Authored By: Global GeoPolitics *Thank you for visiting. This is a reader-supported publication. If you believe journalism should serve the public, not the powerful, and you=E2=80= =99re in a position to help, becoming a PAID SUBSCRIBER truly makes a difference. Alternatively you can support by way of a cup of coffee:* https://buymeacoffee.com/ggtv | https://ko-fi.com/globalgeopolitics | Bitcoin: 3NiK8BoRZnkwJSHZSekuXKFizGPopkE7ns Invite your friends and earn rewards If you enjoy Global GeoPolitics, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe. Invite Friends Share Like Comment Restack =C2=A9 2026 Global Geo-Politics 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe [image: Start writing] --0000000000006638b5064e2e6223 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

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Rece= nt developments spanning the Middle East and Eastern Europe point to a pote= ntially significant shift in how contemporary conflicts are structured, ext= ending beyond geographically contained wars into interconnected theatres sh= aped by shared capabilities, strategic signaling, and alliance recalibratio= n. Claims by Iran=E2=80=99s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of a precisio= n strike in Dubai targeting a facility allegedly linked to Ukrainian air de= fense and counter-drone operations, alongside reports of a parallel strike = on U.S.-associated infrastructure, remain unverified by officials in the Un= ited Arab Emirates, Ukraine, or Washington. However, even as unconfirmed in= formation, the claim itself functions as a strategic signal within an incre= asingly complex deterrence environment.

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At the same time, Ukrainian President Volody= myr Zelenskyy has accelerated defense engagement with Gulf states including= Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, focusing on air defense= cooperation, counter-UAV systems, and long-term security arrangements. Ukr= aine=E2=80=99s battlefield experience against Russian drone warfare has eff= ectively become an exportable strategic commodity, transforming it from a r= ecipient of security assistance into a provider of niche military expertise= . This repositioning carries implications that can be better understood thr= ough classical geopolitical theory and game-theoretic frameworks.

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From a balance-of-power per= spective, the situation reflects elements of both classical realism and neo= realism, where states respond not only to immediate threats but to shifts i= n capability distribution. Iran=E2=80=99s potential targeting of Ukrainian-= linked assets, if accurate, can be interpreted through the lens of preventi= ve deterrence: acting early to disrupt an emerging capability that could al= ter the regional balance. In this framing, Ukrainian deployments in the Gul= f may be perceived in Tehran not as neutral technical assistance but as a f= orce multiplier for U.S.-aligned infrastructure, effectively extending adve= rsarial capacity closer to Iranian strategic depth.

( Khatam al-Anbiya (PBUH) Cent= ral Headquarters: Destruction of a storage depot for Ukrainian anti-drone s= ystems in the IRGC missile operation on Dubai. At the same time as the hide= outs of American commanders and soldiers in Dubai were targeted, causing th= em heavy casualties, a storage depot containing anti-drone systems belongin= g to Ukraine, which was present in Dubai to assist the U.S. military, was a= lso targeted and destroyed in a combined operation by the Aerospace and Nav= al Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. There were also 21 Ukra= inians present at that location. There is no information available about th= e fate of the Ukrainian personnel present at the site, who are likely to ha= ve been killed. Morever Heavy casualties among more than 500 American soldi= ers.)

Game theory offers a useful structure for interpretin= g the interaction. The situation resembles a multi-player extension of a re= peated signaling game under conditions of incomplete information. Each acto= r, Iran, the United States, Gulf states, and Ukraine, operates with partial= visibility into the intentions and thresholds of the others. Ukraine=E2=80= =99s deployment of counter-drone systems can be modeled as a cooperative mo= ve within a coalition framework, increasing collective defense utility. Ira= n=E2=80=99s claimed strike, in turn, functions as a costly signal intended = to demonstrate both capability and willingness to escalate horizontally acr= oss theatres.

In deterrence theory, credibility is built not onl= y through capability but through demonstrated action. If Iran did conduct o= r credibly signal such a strike, it may be attempting to shift the perceive= d payoff matrix: raising the cost of Ukrainian involvement in the Gulf whil= e testing U.S. and allied response thresholds. The ambiguity surrounding ve= rification further enhances the signaling effect, as uncertainty itself bec= omes a strategic tool, forcing adversaries to consider worst-case interpret= ations without providing a clear escalation trigger.

Ukraine=E2= =80=99s evolving role also illustrates a transition from a single-theatre c= onflict actor to what might be described as a =E2=80=9Ccapability broker=E2= =80=9D in a networked security environment. Its comparative advantage lies = not in traditional force projection but in highly specialized knowledge der= ived from intensive exposure to modern drone warfare. This aligns with broa= der trends in military transformation, where operational experience, partic= ularly in emerging domains like unmanned systems, electronic warfare, and a= daptive tactics, becomes as valuable as hardware.

Classical theo= rists such as Carl von Clausewitz emphasised that war is a continuation of = politics by other means, but in this case the inverse dynamic is also visib= le: political relationships are increasingly shaped by the transfer and dep= loyment of war-derived expertise. Meanwhile, Thomas Schelling highlighted t= he importance of coercion and signaling in strategic interaction; here, bot= h Ukraine=E2=80=99s deployments and Iran=E2=80=99s response, real or claime= d, fit within a framework of compellence and deterrence bargaining rather t= han direct confrontation.

The situation also reflects elements o= f what some scholars describe as =E2=80=9Centangled security dilemmas.=E2= =80=9D Gulf states, seeking protection against drone threats, particularly = from Iranian or Iran-aligned actors, may rationally pursue partnerships wit= h actors like Ukraine. However, this very move increases Iranian threat per= ception, prompting countermeasures that, in turn, validate Gulf security co= ncerns. The cycle is self-reinforcing, with each defensive action interpret= ed as offensive preparation by the other side.

Russia=E2=80=99s = position introduces an additional layer of strategic symmetry. As Ukraine e= xpands its cooperative footprint with U.S.-aligned partners, Moscow has inc= entives to deepen coordination with Iran, particularly in areas such as dro= ne technology and sanctions evasion. This creates a mirrored structure of i= ndirect competition, where both sides leverage partners and proxies across = multiple regions without necessarily engaging in direct confrontation. The = result resembles a distributed form of great-power competition, less rigid = than Cold War blocs but similarly global in scope.

From a system= s perspective, the diffusion of drone warfare expertise marks a departure f= rom traditional military hierarchies. Unlike nuclear weapons or advanced ai= rcraft, drone systems and countermeasures are comparatively accessible, ada= ptable, and rapidly iterated. This lowers the barrier to entry for meaningf= ul participation in high-impact military operations, enabling mid-tier powe= rs and even non-state actors to influence strategic outcomes. Ukraine=E2=80= =99s role in exporting such expertise underscores how knowledge transfer ca= n reshape regional security architectures.

Statements attributed= to Donald Trump denying U.S. reliance on Ukrainian assistance introduce fu= rther complexity, highlighting potential divergence between public messagin= g and operational coordination. In game-theoretic terms, such statements ma= y be interpreted as attempts to maintain strategic ambiguity, reduce percei= ved escalation, or manage domestic political considerations, even as underl= ying cooperation continues or evolves.

Ultimately, whether or no= t the reported strike occurred as described, the convergence of Ukrainian m= ilitary outreach, Gulf security concerns, and Iranian signaling behavior il= lustrates a broader transformation in conflict dynamics. Warfare is no long= er confined to clearly bounded battlefields; instead, capabilities, personn= el, and strategic effects are increasingly transnational, creating a system= in which local actions can have global reverberations. The risk is not sim= ply escalation in a single region, but the emergence of a tightly coupled n= etwork of conflicts, where moves in one theatre alter the strategic calculu= s in another, raising the stakes of miscalculation across the entire system= .

Authored By: Global GeoPolitics

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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:04:50 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:04:35 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzBHug2bVW99jFyNxDbqAQMF9HEJpdPAXRLDDdeBQMOgFqbpgurHZvVGhgE Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000c5772e064e30154d" Subject: [Salon] Even After the Police's 'Insane Violence, ' Israeli anti-Iran War Protesters Remain Undeterred X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 21:04:53 -0000 --000000000000c5772e064e30154d Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-politics/2026-03-29/ty-article/= .premium/despite-the-polices-insane-violence-anti-iran-war-activists-remain= -unfazed/0000019d-3868-dc3f-a7fd-3b78becd0000 * *Even After the Police's 'Insane Violence,' Israeli anti-Iran War Protesters Remain Undeterred - *Israel Political News *3/29/26* [image: Itamar Greenberg, arrested and strip-searched during the first anti-Iran war rally, arrested again on Saturday. 'You can't remain silent,' said one protester] *Itamar Greenberg, arrested and strip-searched during the first anti-Iran war rally, arrested again on Saturday. 'You can't remain silent,' said one protester Credit: Itai Ron* *Thirteen protesters were arrested on Saturday at an anti-war demonstration in Habima Square =E2=80=93 a sight activists in the city have not seen for = many months.* *Later on Saturday night, dozens of young people stood outside the north Tel Aviv Israel Police station, as Attorney Gaby Lasky, who represents detained protesters, went in and out of the station to update them on the situation of their friends held inside. * Haaretz Podcast'Our fate is in Trump=E2=80=99s hands': Haaretz Editor-in-Ch= ief Aluf Benn on Israel=E2=80=99s =E2=80=98unprecedented=E2=80=99 wartime dependence= on the U.S. *It all began a few hours earlier, before the sun had set on the square. More than a thousand protesters arrived at the plaza for the largest demonstration held since Israel's war with Iran began, one month ago. * *Hundreds of new faces joined the dozens who had consistently come to the square in recent weeks, including some identified with organizations working against the judicial overhaul led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition. New blood in a blood-soaked reality. * *Just minutes after hundreds of protesters began to gather in the plaza, the deputy chief of the local Tel Aviv police station, Chief Superintendent Avi Offer, ordered the organizers of the demonstration to disperse it. The reason, which would be repeated dozens of times over the next two hours: "For your own safety." * *According to the police, the protesters were endangering themselves by their very presence in the square. Police said an assessment with Home Front Command also determined that the demonstration was a dangerous one, as officers announced repeatedly throughout the evening. * *The organizers' instructions for protesters to take shelter if sirens warning of an incoming Iranian missile were sounded, and their explanations that a five-story parking lot =E2=80=93 one of the largest protective bomb = shelters in Tel Aviv =E2=80=93 was located just underneath the square, did not help.= * *Soon, police officers, special forces and Border Police stormed the crowd. What began as pushing quickly turned into real violence: slamming people, including women, to the ground, and also pushing and shoving journalists. * [image: Border police officers arrest a protester in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Saturday.] *Border police officers arrest a protester in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Saturday. Credit: Itai Ron* *For nearly two hours, in a demonstration originally planned to last about an hour, the police clashed with the protesters. The protesters refused to give up their right to voice a critical stance, especially during a war. "It's like in the West Bank," one protester shouted at the police. Another told a Border Police officer: "Go guard the border instead of being here."* *Hours later, dozens of protesters stood outside the police station in the city, cheering on their friends who were slowly being released. The mood, somewhat surprisingly, was uplifted. The police's conduct and the violence directed at the protesters seemed to breathe new life into the protest, whether it was against the war or against the Israeli government.* *One of the first to be released from the station was Itamar Greenberg, who, along with his friends, had consistently protested in the square almost since the first day of the war. Even though he had already been arrested at the group's first demonstration about three weeks prior and also underwent a strip search, he testified that Saturday's events were out of the ordinary. "The violence was insane and extraordinary," he said. "The police beat me and choked me inside the patrol car."* *Kalanit Sharon, from the Pink Front, a protest organization consisting of anti-government artists and performers wearing pink, also has considerable experience with protests. "It surprised me," she said about the police's conduct. "The whole idea of dispersing everyone was very violent from the get-go. There was an escalation of pushing, throwing, and then arresting." = * *Sharon said she felt someone pulling her by the bag on her back, and after being slammed to the ground, four police officers lifted and arrested her. "We were above a huge shelter, so I didn't see any reason to act in such a way. It's really the most protected place, more than my home," she added. * [image: The Pink Front protester holding a sign against the war that says: "A wartime coup. You must act immediately before we become Iran", in Habima Square in Tel Aviv, on Saturday.] *The Pink Front protester holding a sign against the war that says: "A wartime coup. You must act immediately before we become Iran", in Habima Square in Tel Aviv, on Saturday. Credit: Itai Ron* *Greenberg and Sharon both said they believe the police's actions on Saturday will signal a shift in the protest movement's motivation. "This is a pivotal event. I don't know what its impact will be, but we haven't had anything like this in months," Greenberg said. * *Sharon also said she hoped the protests would grow. "When there's no trust in those leading this war, you can't remain silent," she said. "I'm not a soldier, but I don't trust those who are leading me down this path. We protesters, don't agree about everything, but we're fighting for common causes, and that's exciting. The feeling is that they're trying to silence any criticism. The police were out of control." * [image: Border Police officers arrest a protester in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Saturday.] *Border Police officers arrest a protester in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Saturday. Credit: Itai Ron* *After most of the protesters were released, a young man, wearing a torn white shirt, emerged from the station doors. According to him, when he was arrested, he was outside the square, on one of the nearby streets. "They threw my friend to the ground, and then jumped on me. It was wild and illogical violence," he described. "It just makes you want to participate more when you see all the amazing people who are there."* *Police said in response that the protest was held without coordination with them and that the protesters gathered in violation of Home Front Command directives and emergency regulations. * *Police also said that a Home Front Command officer clarified that "there is a real risk to human life." According to the police, "a police officer declared the dispersal of the demonstration, and disturbers of the peace who did not obey the officers' orders created confrontations with the officers, during which 13 disturbers of the peace were arrested."* --000000000000c5772e064e30154d Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-politics/2026-03-29/= ty-article/.premium/despite-the-polices-insane-violence-anti-iran-war-activ= ists-remain-unfazed/0000019d-3868-dc3f-a7fd-3b78becd0000

Eve= n After the Police's 'Insane Violence,' Israeli anti-Iran War P= rotesters Remain Undeterred - Israel Political News

3/29/26
3D"Itamar=
Itamar Greenberg, arrested and strip-search= ed during the first anti-Iran war rally, arrested again on Saturday. 'Y= ou can't remain silent,' said one protester=C2=A0Cre= dit: Itai Ron

Thirteen protesters were= arrested on Saturday at an anti-war demonstration in Habima Square =E2=80= =93 a sight activists in the city have not seen for many months.=

Later on Saturday night, dozens of young people sto= od outside the north Tel Aviv Israel Police station, as Attorney Gaby Lasky= , who represents detained protesters, went in and out of the station to upd= ate them on the situation of their friends held inside.=C2=A0<= /b>

Haaretz Podcast

'Our fate is in Trump=E2=80=99s= hands': Haaretz Editor-in-Chief Aluf Benn on Israel=E2=80=99s =E2=80= =98unprecedented=E2=80=99 wartime dependence on the U.S.=C2=A0=

It all began= a few hours earlier, before the sun had set on the square. More than a tho= usand protesters arrived at the plaza for the largest demonstration held si= nce Israel's war with Iran began, one month ago.=C2=A0=

Hundreds of new faces joined the dozens who = had consistently come to the square in recent weeks, including some identif= ied with organizations working against the judicial overhaul led by Prime M= inister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition. New blood in a blood-soaked rea= lity.=C2=A0

Just minu= tes after=C2=A0hundreds of protesters=C2=A0= began to gather in the plaza, the deputy chief of the local Tel Aviv police= station, Chief Superintendent Avi Offer, ordered the organizers of the dem= onstration to disperse it. The reason, which would be repeated dozens of ti= mes over the next two hours: "For your own safety."=C2=A0

According to the police, the protesters we= re endangering themselves by their very presence in the square. Police said= an assessment with Home Front Command also determined that the demonstrati= on was a dangerous one, as officers announced repeatedly throughout the eve= ning.=C2=A0

The organizers&#= 39; instructions for protesters to take shelter if sirens warning of an inc= oming Iranian missile were sounded, and their explanations that a five-stor= y parking lot =E2=80=93 one of the largest protective bomb shelters in Tel = Aviv =E2=80=93 was located just underneath the square, did not help.

Soon, police officers, special forces and Borde= r Police stormed the crowd. What began as pushing quickly turned into real = violence: slamming people, including women, to the ground, and also pushing= and shoving journalists.=C2=A0

3D"Border
Border police officer= s arrest a protester in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Saturday.=C2=A0= Credit: Itai Ron

For nearly two hours,= in a demonstration originally planned to last about an hour, the police cl= ashed with the protesters. The protesters refused to give up their right to= voice a critical stance, especially during a war. "It's like in t= he West Bank," one protester shouted at the police. Another told a Bor= der Police officer: "Go guard the border instead of being here."<= /b>

Hours later, dozens of protesters stood o= utside the police station in the city, cheering on their friends who were s= lowly being released. The mood, somewhat surprisingly, was uplifted. The po= lice's conduct and the violence directed at the protesters seemed to br= eathe new life into the protest, whether it was against the war or against = the Israeli government.

One of the first = to be released from the station was=C2=A0Itamar Greenberg, who, along with his friends, had consistently = protested in the square almost since the first day of the war. Even though = he had already been arrested at the group's first demonstration about t= hree weeks prior and also underwent a strip search, he testified that Satur= day's events were out of the ordinary. "The violence was insane an= d extraordinary," he said. "The police beat me and choked me insi= de the patrol car."

Kalanit Sharon, = from the Pink Front, a protest organization consisting of anti-government a= rtists and performers wearing pink, also has considerable experience with p= rotests. "It surprised me," she said about the police's condu= ct. "The whole idea of dispersing everyone was very violent from the g= et-go. There was an escalation of pushing, throwing, and then arresting.&qu= ot;=C2=A0

Sharon said she fe= lt someone pulling her by the bag on her back, and after being slammed to t= he ground, four police officers lifted and arrested her. "We were abov= e a huge shelter, so I didn't see any reason to act in such a way. It&#= 39;s really the most protected place, more than my home," she added.=C2=A0

3D"The
The Pink Front protester holding a sign against the w= ar that says: "A wartime coup. You must act immediately before we beco= me Iran", in Habima Square in Tel Aviv, on Saturday.=C2= =A0Credit: Itai Ron

Greenberg and Sh= aron both said they believe the police's actions on Saturday will signa= l a shift in the protest movement's motivation. "This is a pivotal= event. I don't know what its impact will be, but we haven't had an= ything like this in months," Greenberg said.=C2=A0

Sharon also said she hoped the protests would g= row. "When there's no trust in those leading this war, you can'= ;t remain silent," she said. "I'm not a soldier, but I don= 9;t trust those who are leading me down this path. We protesters, don't= agree about everything, but we're fighting for common causes, and that= 's exciting. The feeling is that they're trying to silence any crit= icism. The police were out of control."=C2=A0<= /p>

3D"Border
= Bo= rder Police officers arrest a protester in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Saturday.=C2=A0Credit: Itai Ron

Af= ter most of the protesters were released, a young man, wearing a torn white= shirt, emerged from the station doors. According to him, when he was arres= ted, he was outside the square, on one of the nearby streets. "They th= rew my friend to the ground, and then jumped on me. It was wild and illogic= al violence," he described. "It just makes you want to participat= e more when you see all the amazing people who are there."<= /p>

Police said in response that the protest was held wi= thout coordination with them and that the protesters gathered in violation = of Home Front Command directives and emergency regulations.=C2=A0

Police also said that a Home Front Co= mmand officer clarified that "there is a real risk to human life."= ; According to the police, "a police officer declared the dispersal of= the demonstration, and disturbers of the peace who did not obey the office= rs' orders created confrontations with the officers, during which 13 di= sturbers of the peace were arrested."

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-03-29/= ty-article/.premium/israeli-support-for-iran-war-wanes-after-early-enthusia= sm-poll-shows/0000019d-3967-d3e8-a39f-7bef57900000
3/29/26

Israeli Support f= or Iran War Wanes After Early Enthusiasm, Poll Shows

The share of Israeli Jews who s= ay they 'somewhat' or 'strongly' oppose the war has more th= an doubled =E2=80=93 from 4 percent in the previous two polls to 11.5 perce= nt. Among the Arab public, opposition has remained steadfast

Michael comforts his dog, Louis, as= they shelter in an underground car park that functions as a bomb shelter, = as sirens sound amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tel Aviv, Isra= el, on March.=C2=A0Credit: Ronen Zvulun/REUTERS

Although support for the Israel-U.S. war in Iran a= mong the Israeli public remains broad, that support has declined over the f= our weeks of fighting, data released over the weekend by the Israel Democra= cy Institute shows.

As of late March, 68 = percent of Israelis say that they support the continuation of the Iran war,= down from 81 percent at the outset of the operation on February 28, and th= e number who oppose continuing the war is growing.=C2=A0

The data released on Friday, a preview of the = institute's March Voice Index to be released this week, comes from Isra= elis polled from March 22 to 26, and is contrasted with the institute's= two previous polls, conducted by the institute's Viterbi Family Center= for Public Opinion and Policy Research from March 9 to 11 and March 2 to 3= , respectively.

Among Jewish Israeli resp= ondents, 78 percent said they "strongly" or "somewhat" = support the continuation of the war, down from the 92.5 percent who said th= e same in the previous poll, and the 93 percent who gave the same answer at= the outset of the operation. Just 50 percent said that they "strongly= support" the war, down from 68 percent in mid-March and 74 percent at= the beginning of the month.

'Our fate is in Trump=E2=80=99s hands': Haaretz Edit= or-in-Chief Aluf Benn on Israel=E2=80=99s =E2=80=98unprecedented=E2=80=99 w= artime dependence on the U.S.=C2=A0

The share of Israeli Jews who = say they "somewhat" or "strongly" oppose the war has mo= re than doubled =E2=80=93 from 4 percent in the previous two polls to 11.5 = percent.

Among Israel's Arab public, = opposition has remained steadfast: 70 percent of those polled said that the= y "somewhat" or "strongly" oppose the war, compared to = 65.5 percent in mid-March and 60 percent at the beginning of the month.

Buildings that were d= amaged by an Iranian missile attack in Tel Aviv, Israel, in March.=C2=A0Credit: Tomer Appelbaum

Bo= th Jewish and Arab respondents, though, seem to agree on the Iranian regime= 's ability to survive. When asked, "In your estimation, relative t= o the expectations of the Israeli and American planners of the operation, h= as Iran's resilience and fighting capability so far been," stronge= r or weaker, 56 percent of Jews and 51 percent of Arabs said that Iran was = "much stronger" or "somewhat stronger" than anticipated= .

Regarding the home front, Israelis are = divided on how long the country can sustain the=C2=A0state of war. The largest share of Jewish responden= ts said that it can go on for up to one month in total =E2=80=93 that is, b= y the end of March =E2=80=93 with 35 percent.=C2=A0=

= The number is similar among the Arab public, with 3= 3 percent. From here, the divide begins: 20 percent of Jewish Israelis say = that the war can go on for one to three months and 6.5 percent for three to= six months, but the second-largest share, 28 percent, said that the countr= y can bear the burden of the war for "as long as it takes to achieve t= he goals of the operation."

For=C2=A0Arab respondents, the outlook= is bleaker: 16 percent said that the country could shoulder one to three m= onths of war, 8 percent said three to six months, and just five percent sai= d that the home front could bear the burden for "as long as it takes.&= quot;

The institute also polled Israelis = on whether they believe that=C2=A0= Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's motivations=C2=A0f= or starting the war, along with the United States, were security-related an= d strategic or political and personal. Most Jewish respondents =E2=80=93 62= percent =E2=80=93 said that Netanyahu was motivated by strategic and secur= ity concerns, while most Arab respondents, at 55 percent, believed his moti= vations to be personal.

The Israeli Voice= Index was conducted online and by telephone between March 22 and 26, and s= urveyed 756 respondents aged 18 and over: 604 in Hebrew and 152 in Arabic, = constituting a nationally representative sample. The maximum sampling error= for the full sample is =C2=B13.56 percent at a 95 percent confidence level= . Fieldwork was conducted by the Shiluv I=C2=B2R Institute.

<= /div>
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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:13:24 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:13:08 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzCmyqIr1UzTWEa6BBPbprJWPyCjdSX2u0CCO_nhu3Mc6TgVsSZq_IPWKSs Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0000000000005bd990064e3034af" Subject: [Salon] =?utf-8?b?RWd5cHTigJlzIGVjb25vbXk6IG9uIGEga25pZmXigJlz?= =?utf-8?q?_edge?= X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 21:13:26 -0000 --0000000000005bd990064e3034af Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Egypt=E2=80=99s economy: on a knife=E2=80=99s edge *Summary: the economic impact on Egypt of the US-Israeli war against Iran may be =E2=80=9Crelatively contained=E2=80=9D but the longer hostilities co= ntinue the greater the damage to an already heavily battered Egyptian economy.* We thank our regular contributor Maged Mandour for today=E2=80=99s newslett= er. Maged is a political analyst who also contributes to *Middle East Eye* and *Open Democracy*. He is a writer for *Sada*, the Carnegie Endowment online journal and the author of Egypt under El-Sisi (I.B.Tauris) which examines social and political developments since the coup of 2013. In a press conference on 19 March, the IMF offered its evaluation of the impact of the war on Iran on the Egyptian economy, assessing that it was =E2=80=9Crelatively contained.=E2=80=9D There are rea= sons for this cautious optimism. For example, the hard currency reserves hit a record of US$ 52.8 billion in February , offering a healthy buffer to meet mounting hard currency obligations. The banking sector as well has posted its highest net foreign currency assets since 2012, reaching US$ 14.5 billion making the banking system more robust. Finally, the outflow of hot money did not reach the level of 2022, when US$ 20 billion exited the Egyptian market in the span of a few weeks. At the time of writing the estimated outflow is anywhere between US$ 5 and 8 billion, with reports of returning inflows. These factors all provide a sense of comfort that there are enough buffers and that market panic has not yet been ignited in a way that would trigger a sudden collapse. There is, however, a degree of wishful thinking and tunnel vision in the above logic with a more holistic view revealing deep structural vulnerabilities that are blissfully ignored. There is good reason to argue that these buffers will buy time but nothing more. *Egypt faces deep structural risks from heavy reliance on volatile "hot money" and a strained state budget, compounded by the regional war's impact which has already slashed Suez Canal traffic by 50% and threatened the vital financial lifelines provided by Gulf allies.* Arguably the most volatile mix in the regime's economic vulnerabilities is the heavy reliance on hot money, which reached a whopping US$ 45 billion last September. A mass exodus would be disastrous. This, however, has not happened yet with markets still underestimating the impact on the global economy of the war dragging on. If investor appetite for risk diminishes and a mass exodus follows, the impact would be catastrophic. There are signs of increased risk aversion against investing in Egyptian debt. For example, on 16 March, and for the third time in a row, the Central Bank refused bids to sell EGP 10 billion worth of long term bonds due to the high interests rates demanded by investors which reached 30%. In the same offering the Central Bank was only able to sell 2% of a targeted EGP 38 billion with two and three year maturities. These are signs of increased perceived risks by investors. The situation is compounded by a fragile currency, which hit a record low against the dollar, trading below EGP 52 for the dollar, recording a drop of 4.3% in a single day driven by the initial exodus of hot money. The weakening of the currency does not only add pressure on the ability of the regime to meet its debt obligations but is bound to increased inflation which in turn will pressure the Central Bank to increase interest rates already at a high of 19% . This in turn will add pressure on an already strained budget to meet debt obligations which consumed 96% of state revenues in the first five month of the fiscal year 2025/26. It is worth mentioning too that in 2026, the total external debt obligation reached US$ 29 billion with the financing gap for the current fiscal year reaching US$ 8.2 billion, showcasing the heavy burden on the state budget. The other obvious vulnerability is the heavy dependence on imported energy which leaves the country susceptible to imported inflation and a high energy bill that will consume the state's budget. This was reflected in the more than doubling of the energy import bill to reach US$ 1.65 billion per month since the start of the war. If the war continues to escalate then the pressure to raise import levels will increase resulting in higher inflation while hurting growth. Stagflation becomes the order of the day. Adding to the pressure, the war is also expected to have a negative impact on the Suez Canal, with early indicators suggesting traffic has already dropped by 50% since the start of the war. Another less talked about stress is the expected increase in the price of food, due to the shortage in fertilisers, the price of which has already spiked by 30%, due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. About a third of the world's fertiliser passes through the strait. Egypt, the world's largest importer of wheat and heavily dependent on food imports, is likely to be severely hit thus ramping up food price inflation, affecting the poor the most and causing poverty levels to spike. The most alarming development, however, is the impact of the war on the GCC economies which will make it more difficult for them to again bail out the government. For example, Qatar's economy is expected to contract by 14%, while economies of the UAE - the Sisi regime's biggest backer - and Saudi Arabia are expected to contract between 3 and 5%. These contractions will make it less likely the GCC will continue to invest in Egypt at the same pace. There are already reports that the war has delayed US$ 20 billio= n worth of Gulf investments. This could leave the regime without a lifeline and if the war continues it can affect one of the main sources of foreign currency, namely worker remittances - which reached a record US$ 41.5 billion last year - thus leaving the regime in an extremely vulnerable position. All of these factors speak to a potential crisis with devastating consequences. The regime's reserves are only buying it time but that does not change the fundamental dynamics. In many ways it is even more vulnerable to shocks with the war on the GCC countries making it ever more fragile. Policies that created a debt crisis and have caused near complete dependence on the Gulf reveal just how vulnerable Egypt's economy is. The eruption of another crisis would have consequences that are difficult to imagine, especially if the war continues and the economic damage Iran is inflicting on the GCC states Sisi relies on reaches a critical level. *Members can leave comments about this newsletter on the Arab Digest website.* follow us on Twitter , LinkedIn and Facebook *Copyright =C2=A9 2026 Arab Digest, All rights reserved.* You are receiving this email as you are subscribed to the Arab Digest. *Our mailing address is:* Arab Digest 3rd Floor 207 Regent Street London, W1B 3HH United Kingdom To unsubscribe from this list email editor@arabdigest.org --0000000000005bd990064e3034af Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
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3D""

Egypt=E2=80=99s economy: = on a knife=E2=80=99s edge

Summary: the economic impact = on Egypt of the US-Israeli war against Iran may be =E2=80=9Crelatively cont= ained=E2=80=9D but the longer hostilities continue the greater the damage t= o an already heavily battered Egyptian economy.

We thank our reg= ular contributor Maged Mandour for today=E2=80=99s newsletter. Maged is a p= olitical analyst who also contributes to=C2=A0Middle East Eye=C2= =A0and=C2=A0Open Democracy. He is a writer for=C2=A0Sada,= the Carnegie Endowment online journal and the author of=C2=A0Egypt under El-Sisi=C2=A0(I.B.Tauris) which examine= s social and political developments since the coup of 2013.

In a pres= s conference on 19 March, the IMF=C2=A0off= ered=C2=A0its evaluation of the impact of the war on Iran on the Egypti= an economy, assessing that it was =E2=80=9Crelatively contained.=E2=80=9D T= here are reasons for this cautious optimism. For example, the hard currency= reserves hit a record of US$=C2=A052.8 bi= llion=C2=A0in February , offering a healthy buffer to meet mounting har= d currency obligations. The banking sector as well has posted its highest n= et foreign currency assets since 2012, reaching US$=C2=A014.5 billion=C2=A0making the banking system more robust= . Finally, the outflow of hot money did not reach the level of 2022, when U= S$ 20 billion exited the Egyptian market in the span of a few weeks. At the= time of writing the estimated outflow is anywhere=C2=A0between=C2=A0US$ 5 and 8 billion, with=C2=A0reports=C2=A0of returning inflows. These factors = all provide a sense of comfort that there are enough buffers and that marke= t panic has not yet been ignited in a way that would trigger a sudden colla= pse. There is, however, a degree of wishful thinking and tunnel vision in t= he above logic with a more holistic view revealing deep structural vulnerab= ilities that are blissfully ignored. There is good reason to argue that the= se buffers will buy time but nothing more.


= Egypt faces deep structural risks from heavy reliance on volatile "hot= money" and a strained state budget, compounded by the regional war= 9;s impact which has already slashed Suez Canal traffic by 50% and threaten= ed the vital financial lifelines provided by Gulf allies.

Arguably t= he most volatile mix in the regime's economic vulnerabilities is the he= avy reliance on hot money, which reached a whopping=C2=A0US$ 45 billion=C2=A0last September. A mass exodus would= be disastrous. This, however, has not happened yet with markets still=C2=A0underestimating=C2=A0the impact on th= e global economy of the war dragging on. If investor appetite for risk=C2=A0diminishes=C2=A0and a mass exodus fol= lows, the impact would be catastrophic. There are signs of increased risk a= version against investing in Egyptian debt. For example, on 16 March, and f= or the third time in a row, the Central Bank=C2=A0refused bids=C2=A0to sell EGP 10 billion worth of long term bon= ds due to the high interests rates demanded by investors which reached 30%.= In the same offering the Central Bank was only able to sell 2% of a target= ed EGP 38 billion with two and three year maturities. These are signs of in= creased perceived risks by investors. The situation is compounded by a frag= ile currency, which hit a record low against the dollar, trading=C2=A0below EGP 52=C2=A0for the dollar, recording= a drop of 4.3% in a single day driven by the initial exodus of hot money. = The weakening of the currency does not only add pressure on the ability of = the regime to meet its debt obligations but is bound to increased inflation= which in turn will pressure the Central Bank to increase interest rates al= ready at a=C2=A0high of 19%. This in= turn will add pressure on an already strained budget to meet debt obligati= ons which consumed=C2=A096%=C2=A0of st= ate revenues in the first five month of the fiscal year 2025/26. It is wort= h mentioning too that in 2026, the total external=C2=A0debt obligation=C2=A0reached US$ 29 billion with the finan= cing gap for the current fiscal year reaching US$ 8.2 billion, showcasing t= he heavy burden on the state budget.

The other obvious vulnerability = is the heavy dependence on imported energy which leaves the country suscept= ible to imported inflation and a high energy bill that will consume the sta= te's budget. This was reflected in the more than doubling of the energy= import bill to reach=C2=A0US$ 1.65 billio= n=C2=A0per month since the start of the war. If the war continues to es= calate then the pressure to raise import levels will increase resulting in = higher inflation while hurting growth. Stagflation becomes the order of the= day.

Adding to the pressure, the war is also expected to have a nega= tive impact on the Suez Canal, with early indicators suggesting traffic has= already dropped=C2=A0by 50%=C2=A0sinc= e the start of the war. Another less talked about stress is the expected in= crease in the price of food, due to the shortage in fertilisers, the price = of which has already=C2=A0spiked by 30%,=C2=A0due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. About a third of the w= orld's fertiliser passes through the strait. Egypt, the world's lar= gest importer of wheat and heavily dependent on food imports, is likely to = be severely hit thus ramping up food price inflation, affecting the poor th= e most and causing poverty levels to spike.

The most alarming develop= ment, however, is the impact of the war on the GCC economies which will mak= e it more difficult for them to again bail out the government. For example,= Qatar's economy is expected to=C2=A0c= ontract=C2=A0by 14%, while economies of the UAE - the Sisi regime's= biggest backer - and Saudi Arabia are expected to contract between 3 and 5= %. These contractions will make it less likely the GCC will continue to inv= est in Egypt at the same pace. There are already reports that the war has d= elayed=C2=A0US$ 20 billion=C2=A0worth = of Gulf investments. This could leave the regime without a lifeline and if = the war continues it can affect one of the main sources of foreign currency= , namely worker remittances - which reached a record US$ 41.5 billion last = year - thus leaving the regime in an extremely vulnerable position.

A= ll of these factors speak to a potential crisis with devastating consequenc= es. The regime's reserves are only buying it time but that does not cha= nge the fundamental dynamics. In many ways it is even more vulnerable to sh= ocks with the war on the GCC countries making it ever more fragile. Policie= s that created a debt crisis and have caused near complete dependence on th= e Gulf reveal just how vulnerable Egypt's economy is. The eruption of a= nother crisis would have consequences that are difficult to imagine, especi= ally if the war continues and the economic damage Iran is inflicting on the= GCC states Sisi relies on reaches a critical level.

Members = can=C2=A0leave comments= about this newsletter=C2=A0on the Arab Digest website.

=


      follow us on= =C2=A0Twitter,=C2=A0LinkedIn=C2=A0and=C2=A0= Facebook

      Copyright =C2=A9 2026 Arab Digest, All right= s reserved.
      You are receiving this email as you are subscribed to t= he Arab Digest.
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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:16:39 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:16:24 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzBjnvOgF7RT3d2VZnIHlm5LZMV6RGizahUpcGpbgf1IF_3XO0xwrqDpyBY Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="00000000000004de2a064e30408d" Subject: [Salon] =?utf-8?q?When_power_becomes_a_trap=3A_America=E2=80=99s?= =?utf-8?q?_strategic_deadlock_in_Iran?= X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 21:16:42 -0000 --00000000000004de2a064e30408d Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260328-when-power-becomes-a-trap-ameri= cas-strategic-deadlock-in-iran/ * *When power becomes a trap: America=E2=80=99s strategic deadlock in Iran* - by Eko Ernada 3/28/26 [image: Demonstrators hold a protest against the war on Iran next to Recruting Station in Times Square, New York City, United States, on Sunday, March 22, 2026. [Sel=C3=A7uk Acar - Anadolu Agency]] *Listen* *0:00 / 12:32* *1.0x* *Ready* *Power, in theory, expands choices. In practice, it can do the opposite. The stronger a state becomes, the more it risks becoming trapped by the very instruments it relies upon. Nowhere is this paradox more visible than in the United States=E2=80=99 confrontation with Iran=E2=80=94a crisis that= exposes not American strength, but the limits of its strategic imagination.* *A recent analysis by Vali Nasr in Foreign Affairs (27 March 2026) makes this point with unusual clarity: Washington has no good options left. What remains is a narrowing corridor of decisions in which every path carries escalating costs, diminishing returns, and the constant risk of unintended consequences.* *This is not simply a policy failure. It is the outcome of a long-standing strategic habit=E2=80=94one that assumes pressure will eventually produce compliance. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, successive US administrations have relied on a familiar toolkit: sanctions, isolation, coercion, and intermittent diplomacy. Yet these measures have not reshaped Iran=E2=80=99s behaviour. They have reshaped Iran itself.* *It does not seek outright victory over the United States=E2=80=94an imposs= ible goal=E2=80=94but something far more attainable: to ensure that any American= attempt at dominance becomes prohibitively costly.* *Decades of pressure have not weakened Tehran=E2=80=99s strategic posture; = they have hardened it. Iran has adapted, shifting away from conventional confrontation toward a model of asymmetric resilience. It does not seek outright victory over the United States=E2=80=94an impossible goal=E2=80=94= but something far more attainable: to ensure that any American attempt at dominance becomes prohibitively costly.* *This is the logic that defines the current impasse. The United States retains overwhelming military superiority, yet it cannot translate that superiority into decisive political outcomes. Iran, by contrast, operates in the spaces where American power is least effective=E2=80=94through proxy networks, regional entanglements, and control over strategic chokepoints.* *The Strait of Hormuz is the clearest expression of this asymmetry. It is not merely a waterway; it is leverage. Iran does not need to close it permanently or defeat US forces directly. It only needs to create enough disruption to unsettle global markets, raise energy prices, and force Washington to confront the broader economic consequences of escalation. In this way, vulnerability becomes strategy.* *Faced with this reality, the United States appears to have three options=E2=80=94none of them viable.* *Escalation, particularly through direct military intervention, risks repeating the strategic failures of Iraq and Afghanistan. Those wars demonstrated that military dominance does not guarantee political control. Iran, with its size, terrain, and embedded regional networks, would present an even more formidable challenge. Any intervention would likely evolve into a prolonged, fragmented conflict with no clear endpoint.* *Diplomacy, often presented as the rational alternative, is equally constrained. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran are shaped by deep mistrust and fundamentally incompatible objectives. For the United States, diplomacy is a means of enforcing limits=E2=80=94on nuclear development, on regional influence. For Iran, it is about survival, sovereignty, and the refusal to negotiate from a position of weakness.* *For the United States, diplomacy is a means of enforcing limits=E2=80=94on= nuclear development, on regional influence. For Iran, it is about survival, sovereignty, and the refusal to negotiate from a position of weakness.* *The collapse of previous agreements, particularly the JCPOA, continues to cast a long shadow. From Tehran=E2=80=99s perspective, engagement with Wash= ington offers exposure without assurance. From Washington=E2=80=99s perspective, compromise risks appearing as a concession. The result is a diplomatic process that persists not because either side believes in it, but because neither side can afford its absence.* *The third option=E2=80=94maintaining the status quo=E2=80=94is perhaps the= most deceptive. It avoids immediate escalation, but at the cost of long-term erosion. Prolonged instability in the Gulf fuels volatility in global energy markets, disrupts supply chains, and reinforces the perception that the United States is no longer able to shape outcomes, only react to them. Strategic drift, over time, becomes strategic decline.* *What this moment reveals is not simply a difficult policy environment, but a deeper structural problem. The United States continues to rely on a model of power that assumes coercion can produce order. Yet in an international system that is increasingly fragmented, multipolar, and resistant to domination, coercion often produces the opposite effect=E2=80=94resistance, adaptation, and counterbalancing.* *Iran=E2=80=99s strategy reflects this shift. Unable to compete symmetrical= ly, it has built influence through indirect means=E2=80=94alliances, non-state act= ors, and the ability to disrupt rather than control. These tools do not defeat the United States in conventional terms, but they complicate its objectives, prolong its engagements, and raise the cost of every decision.* *At the same time, the confrontation cannot be understood purely in material terms. It is also a conflict of narratives=E2=80=94of legitimacy, = justice, and historical memory. Iran positions itself within a broader axis of resistance against external domination, a framing that resonates across much of the Global South.* *Prolonged instability in the Gulf fuels volatility in global energy markets, disrupts supply chains, and reinforces the perception that the United States is no longer able to shape outcomes, only react to them. Strategic drift, over time, becomes strategic decline.* *This narrative has gained renewed traction in Gaza. The ongoing humanitarian crisis, widely viewed in the region as the result of disproportionate force and sustained external backing, has intensified scrutiny of American policy. For many observers, the US approach to Iran and its stance on Gaza are not separate issues, but interconnected expressions of selective power.* *This perception matters. It shapes how American actions are interpreted, how alliances are formed, and how legitimacy is constructed or eroded. In an era where information circulates instantly and globally, images from Gaza do more than document suffering=E2=80=94they redefine the moral terrai= n of geopolitics.* *Iran, despite its limitations, has positioned itself within this terrain. Aligning rhetorically and strategically with the Palestinian cause amplifies its relevance beyond its immediate capabilities. Whether or not this alignment translates into decisive influence is secondary. What matters is the perception it generates=E2=80=94a perception that complicate= s American claims to moral authority.* *As thinkers like Karen Armstrong have argued, modern conflicts often take on a moral intensity that leaves little room for compromise. When political positions are framed in absolute terms=E2=80=94justice versus injustice, re= sistance versus domination=E2=80=94negotiation becomes not just difficult but suspec= t. Concession is reinterpreted as surrender.* *This is the deeper trap in which the United States now finds itself. It is not simply a matter of facing a strategic adversary, but a convergence of structural constraints and moral contestation. Military power, in this context, becomes a blunt instrument=E2=80=94capable of destruction, but inc= apable of resolution.* *The implications extend beyond Iran. They point to a broader transformation in global politics, where the traditional hierarchies of power are increasingly unstable. Dominance no longer guarantees compliance. Superiority no longer ensures control. And intervention no longer produces order.* *What is required, therefore, is not a new tactic, but a rethinking of strategy itself. This would mean moving beyond the binary logic of escalation and containment toward a more flexible, adaptive approach that acknowledges both limits and capabilities.* *What is required, therefore, is not a new tactic, but a rethinking of strategy itself. This would mean moving beyond the binary logic of escalation and containment toward a more flexible, adaptive approach that acknowledges both limits and capabilities.* *Whether Washington is willing=E2=80=94or able=E2=80=94to make such a shift= remains uncertain. Strategic habits, once entrenched, are difficult to abandon. Yet the costs of maintaining them are becoming increasingly clear.* *The United States is not confronting an adversary it cannot defeat. It is confronting a reality it cannot easily control.* *And that is a far more dangerous problem.* *The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.* --00000000000004de2a064e30408d Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
      https://= www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260328-when-power-becomes-a-trap-americas-strat= egic-deadlock-in-iran/

      When power becomes a trap: America=E2=80=99s strategic deadlock in Ir= an

      • <= a href=3D"https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/authors/eko-ernada/" style=3D"b= ox-sizing:border-box;text-decoration-line:none;outline:none;color:rgb(0,0,0= )">3D""
        by=C2=A0Eko Ernada=C2=A0 =C2=A03/28/26
        <= /li>
      3D"Demonstrators

      Listen=

      0:00=C2=A0/=C2=A012:32

      1.0x

      =

      Ready

      Power, in theory, expands choices. In practice, it can do the opposite= . The stronger a state becomes, the more it risks becoming trapped by the v= ery instruments it relies upon. Nowhere is this paradox more visible than i= n the United States=E2=80=99 confrontation with Iran=E2=80=94a crisis that = exposes not American strength, but the limits of its strategic imagination.=

      A recent analysis by Vali Nasr in=C2=A0Foreign Affairs=C2=A0(27 March = 2026) makes this point with unusual clarity: Washington has no good options= left. What remains is a narrowing corridor of decisions in which every pat= h carries escalating costs, diminishing returns, and the constant risk of u= nintended consequences.

      This is not simply a policy failu= re. It is the outcome of a long-standing strategic habit=E2=80=94one that a= ssumes pressure will eventually produce compliance. Since the 1979 Iranian = Revolution, successive US administrations have relied on a familiar toolkit= : sanctions, isolation, coercion, and intermittent diplomacy. Yet these mea= sures have not reshaped Iran=E2=80=99s behaviour. They have reshaped Iran i= tself.

      It does not se= ek outright victory over the United States=E2=80=94an impossible goal=E2=80= =94but something far more attainable: to ensure that any American attempt a= t dominance becomes prohibitively costly.

      De= cades of pressure have not weakened Tehran=E2=80=99s strategic posture; the= y have hardened it. Iran has adapted, shifting away from conventional confr= ontation toward a model of asymmetric resilience. It does not seek outright= victory over the United States=E2=80=94an impossible goal=E2=80=94but some= thing far more attainable: to ensure that any American attempt at dominance= becomes prohibitively costly.

      This is the logic that def= ines the current impasse. The United States retains overwhelming military s= uperiority, yet it cannot translate that superiority into decisive politica= l outcomes. Iran, by contrast, operates in the spaces where American power = is least effective=E2=80=94through proxy networks, regional entanglements, = and control over strategic chokepoints.

      The Strait of Hor= muz is the clearest expression of this asymmetry. It is not merely a waterw= ay; it is leverage. Iran does not need to close it permanently or defeat US= forces directly. It only needs to create enough disruption to unsettle glo= bal markets, raise energy prices, and force Washington to confront the broa= der economic consequences of escalation. In this way, vulnerability becomes= strategy.

      Faced with this reality, the United States app= ears to have three options=E2=80=94none of them viable.

      E= scalation, particularly through direct military intervention, risks repeati= ng the strategic failures of Iraq and Afghanistan. Those wars demonstrated = that military dominance does not guarantee political control. Iran, with it= s size, terrain, and embedded regional networks, would present an even more= formidable challenge. Any intervention would likely evolve into a prolonge= d, fragmented conflict with no clear endpoint.

      Diplomacy,= often presented as the rational alternative, is equally constrained. Negot= iations between Washington and Tehran are shaped by deep mistrust and funda= mentally incompatible objectives. For the United States, diplomacy is a mea= ns of enforcing limits=E2=80=94on nuclear development, on regional influenc= e. For Iran, it is about survival, sovereignty, and the refusal to negotiat= e from a position of weakness.

      For the United States, diplomacy is a means of enforcing limits= =E2=80=94on nuclear development, on regional influence. For Iran, it is abo= ut survival, sovereignty, and the refusal to negotiate from a position of w= eakness.

      The collapse of previous agreements= , particularly the JCPOA, continues to cast a long shadow. From Tehran=E2= =80=99s perspective, engagement with Washington offers exposure without ass= urance. From Washington=E2=80=99s perspective, compromise risks appearing a= s a concession. The result is a diplomatic process that persists not becaus= e either side believes in it, but because neither side can afford its absen= ce.

      The third option=E2=80=94maintaining the status quo= =E2=80=94is perhaps the most deceptive. It avoids immediate escalation, but= at the cost of long-term erosion. Prolonged instability in the Gulf fuels = volatility in global energy markets, disrupts supply chains, and reinforces= the perception that the United States is no longer able to shape outcomes,= only react to them. Strategic drift, over time, becomes strategic decline.=

      What this moment reveals is not simply a difficult poli= cy environment, but a deeper structural problem. The United States continue= s to rely on a model of power that assumes coercion can produce order. Yet = in an international system that is increasingly fragmented, multipolar, and= resistant to domination, coercion often produces the opposite effect=E2=80= =94resistance, adaptation, and counterbalancing.

      Iran=E2= =80=99s strategy reflects this shift. Unable to compete symmetrically, it h= as built influence through indirect means=E2=80=94alliances, non-state acto= rs, and the ability to disrupt rather than control. These tools do not defe= at the United States in conventional terms, but they complicate its objecti= ves, prolong its engagements, and raise the cost of every decision.<= /b>

      At the same time, the confrontation cannot be understood purely = in material terms. It is also a conflict of narratives=E2=80=94of legitimac= y, justice, and historical memory. Iran positions itself within a broader a= xis of resistance against external domination, a framing that resonates acr= oss much of the Global South.

      Prolonged instability in the Gulf fuels volatility in global energ= y markets, disrupts supply chains, and reinforces the perception that the U= nited States is no longer able to shape outcomes, only react to them. Strat= egic drift, over time, becomes strategic decline.

      This narrative has gained renewed traction in Gaza. The ongoing human= itarian crisis, widely viewed in the region as the result of disproportiona= te force and sustained external backing, has intensified scrutiny of Americ= an policy. For many observers, the US approach to Iran and its stance on Ga= za are not separate issues, but interconnected expressions of selective pow= er.

      This perception matters. It shapes how American actio= ns are interpreted, how alliances are formed, and how legitimacy is constru= cted or eroded. In an era where information circulates instantly and global= ly, images from Gaza do more than document suffering=E2=80=94they redefine = the moral terrain of geopolitics.

      Iran, despite its limit= ations, has positioned itself within this terrain. Aligning rhetorically an= d strategically with the Palestinian cause amplifies its relevance beyond i= ts immediate capabilities. Whether or not this alignment translates into de= cisive influence is secondary. What matters is the perception it generates= =E2=80=94a perception that complicates American claims to moral authority.<= /font>

      As thinkers like Karen Armstrong have argued, modern co= nflicts often take on a moral intensity that leaves little room for comprom= ise. When political positions are framed in absolute terms=E2=80=94justice = versus injustice, resistance versus domination=E2=80=94negotiation becomes = not just difficult but suspect. Concession is reinterpreted as surrender.

      This is the deeper trap in which the United States now fin= ds itself. It is not simply a matter of facing a strategic adversary, but a= convergence of structural constraints and moral contestation. Military pow= er, in this context, becomes a blunt instrument=E2=80=94capable of destruct= ion, but incapable of resolution.

      The implications extend= beyond Iran. They point to a broader transformation in global politics, wh= ere the traditional hierarchies of power are increasingly unstable. Dominan= ce no longer guarantees compliance. Superiority no longer ensures control. = And intervention no longer produces order.

      What is required, therefore, is not a new tactic, bu= t a rethinking of strategy itself. This would mean moving beyond the binary= logic of escalation and containment toward a more flexible, adaptive appro= ach that acknowledges both limits and capabilities.

      What is required, therefore, is not a new tactic, but a rethinking = of strategy itself. This would mean moving beyond the binary logic of escal= ation and containment toward a more flexible, adaptive approach that acknow= ledges both limits and capabilities.

      Whether Washington i= s willing=E2=80=94or able=E2=80=94to make such a shift remains uncertain. S= trategic habits, once entrenched, are difficult to abandon. Yet the costs o= f maintaining them are becoming increasingly clear.

      The = United States is not confronting an adversary it cannot defeat. It is confr= onting a reality it cannot easily control.

      And that is a = far more dangerous problem.

      The views e= xpressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflec= t the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:20:09 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:19:53 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzD2nhYsLqfn26T-VE5sEKo5XlOKn_9PrBO3sfvH2mYOEA3SVBl5XCkHYV4 Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0000000000008697d4064e304c46" Subject: [Salon] Fwd: Haaretz: "'Iranian Quagmire': Experts Warn American 'Boots on the Ground' Could Trap U.S." (3/28/26) X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 21:20:12 -0000 --0000000000008697d4064e304c46 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/2026-03-28/ty-article-magazi= ne/.premium/iranian-quagmire-experts-warn-american-boots-on-the-ground-coul= d-trap-u-s/0000019d-2e25-d8a3-abff-3e2598540000 * 2/28/29 *'Iranian Quagmire': Experts Warn American 'Boots on the Ground' Could Trap U.S. - Iran News* [image: =D7=A4=D7=95=D7=AA=D7=97=D7=AA] *U.S. Central Command, CENTCOM, is publishing on its website the number of strikes carried out in Iran, the types of military assets used, and the categories of targets =E2=80=93 from command-and-control systems to ballist= ic missile sites. But the list contains no details on specific targets, the munitions used, or what is known as BDA =E2=80=93 battle damage assessment = =E2=80=93 which indicates the effectiveness of the operation and the extent to which its gains have been preserved. * *While it is clear the U.S. military will not share every detail with the public or provide up-to-date satellite imagery from the battlefield, experts say the partial picture reflects another reason as well: an aerial bombing campaign is inherently limited.* *"CENTCOM's targeting list points to the limitations of airpower and why boots on the ground keep coming up," Dr. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and an expert on aerial warfare, told Haaretz. Indeed, even as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks about talks with Tehran and suspending attacks on Iranian energy sites, American "boots" are already making their way to the Middle East. "The deployment of not one but two Marine Expeditionary Units [roughly 5,000 Marines total, with reports of further reinforcements being discussed] is not ambiguous," Grieco said. * [image: Buildings destroyed by U.S.-Israeli strikes in Tehran on Monday.] *Buildings destroyed by U.S.-Israeli strikes in Tehran on Monday. Credit: Vahid Salemi/AP* *On Wednesday, The New York Times reported that the Pentagon had ordered the deployment of about 2,000 paratroopers to the Middle East. They are part of an immediate response force capable of deploying anywhere in the world within 18 hours of an order. In total, roughly 50,000 troops are currently assigned to the Iran operation.* *Even before the question of what missions U.S. ground forces might be tasked with in Iran arises, there is growing concern about becoming entangled in an "Iranian quagmire," as well as the deep public aversion in the United States to such ventures.* *"'Boots on the ground' would make the Iraq war look like a walk in the park," said William Hartung, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a U.S.-based foreign policy think tank. "There is simply very little appetite for another Middle East ground war, and that includes Trump's own base," Grieco added. "The country has spent two decades absorbing the costs of Iraq and Afghanistan =E2=80=93 in = lives, money and strategic credibility =E2=80=93 and the lesson most Americans dre= w from those experiences was not 'we should have committed more troops.' Trump himself ran in part against that legacy."* *Analysts point to two possible objectives for a ground operation in Iran = =E2=80=93 and the risks involved in each. One could be the seizure of Kharg Island, the hub of Iran's oil exports. But, according to Grieco, "Iran has been planning for exactly this contingency for decades. The geographic and tactical realities are unfavorable. Iranian forces would deploy drones and naval assets against ships and forces in areas near the strait, making it a dangerous undertaking." She said it may be possible to take the island, but Iran would likely redirect fire to other points along hundreds of kilometers of coastline, pulling drones and missiles inland, particularly into the more mountainous eastern regions.* [image: U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump stand at attention as a U.S. Army carry team moves a flag-draped transfer case containing the remains of Sgt. 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens, killed by an Iranian drone in Kuwait, at Dover Air Force Base earlier this month.] *U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump stand at attention as a U.S. Army carry team moves a flag-draped transfer case containing the remains of Sgt. 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens, killed by an Iranian drone in Kuwait, at Dover Air Force Base earlier this month. Credit: Getty Images via AFP/ANNA MONEYMAKER* *A second possible objective for ground forces would be to ensure the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities or to secure its stockpile of enriched uranium. The United States and Israel have struck nuclear sites both in June and in the current round of fighting. But "such attacks can damage or temporarily disable a facility," Grieco said, "yet they cannot guarantee its destruction or prevent it from being rebuilt or from producing enriched uranium again." * *This, she added, is the structural argument for a ground operation =E2=80= =93 and why such a presence would likely come at a high cost. More broadly, she noted, claims that Iran has been "set back decades" tend to exaggerate the impact of airstrikes. "The United States and Israel can degrade infrastructure and known stockpiles, but they cannot bomb away the industrial knowledge needed to rebuild."* [image: A ship near the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month.] *A ship near the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month. Credit: Stringer/Reuters* *There is another reason for the limits of the overwhelming air power wielded by the United States and Israel: this is not a battlefield Iran seeks to win. "Tehran's strategy was never to match U.S. or Israeli airpower symmetrically =E2=80=93 that would be unwinnable," Grieco said. Ir= an's strength, she argued, lies in sustaining prolonged attrition, reflecting a core element of asymmetry: "Iran does not need to win militarily. It just needs not to lose badly enough to keep launching." Another aspect of that asymmetry applies to the attacking side as well: the challenge for the United States and Israel is not only to intercept what is already in the air, but also to locate and destroy mobile launch systems. "The attacker has to find everything," Grieco said. "The defender only has to hide something."* *And, of course, the asymmetry is especially evident when comparing the costs of the war on both sides. "The cost exchange is not in America's favor =E2=80=93 interceptors costing millions versus drones costing thousan= ds," Hartung said. According to him, "half or more of the cost so far has been for munitions and interceptors."* *In the wake of the war in Ukraine, which shares several features of asymmetric warfare, Dr. Grieco and her colleague Maximilian have developed the concept of "hybrid air denial." Unlike air superiority, which prevents an adversary entirely from using the airspace, "air denial is more modest," she explained. "You don't need to win the air war =E2=80=93 you just need t= o make the air domain sufficiently costly and contested that the other side cannot operate freely."* [image: Rally in support of Iran's Islamic regime in Tehran on Thursday.] *Rally in support of Iran's Islamic regime in Tehran on Thursday. Credit: Vahid Salemi/AP* *The "hybrid" aspect, she added, is that this logic extends beyond the battlefield: cheap, widely available drones can shut down airports, disrupt shipping lanes, drive civilian populations into shelters, and erode public confidence in a government's ability to defend its airspace =E2=80=93 all w= ithout a single soldier crossing a border.* *Iran has internalized this logic, Grieco noted. "It doesn't need to defeat Israel or the United States in the air. It needs to make the air domain costly enough, and the disruption persistent enough, that Israeli civilian life is continuously strained and the other side eventually asks whether the price is worth bearing indefinitely."* *Beyond the immediate questions about the effectiveness of a ground operation and the persistence of asymmetric warfare, the researchers also point to broader issues that warrant attention. Regarding the limited information the Pentagon has released about the targets of U.S. strikes, Hartung said that, alongside the fact that the administration is not providing details even to members of Congress, "we see bombings of elementary schools, hospitals and other non-military targets alongside military sites and political leadership." Trump, he said, "thought this would be 'easy,' like Venezuela. Instead, he set off a region-wide war."* *Grieco pointed to another risk: U.S. rivals are watching and learning how to fight the United States, particularly by studying Iran's use of drones and missiles, a tactic refined over years by proxy forces in Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza. Moreover, she added, "nobody is seriously asking what the Middle East will look like when this is over. A weakened Iran is not necessarily a more compliant Iran. A regime that has survived an American and Israeli military campaign, even a badly damaged one, may emerge more hardline, more isolated and more convinced that the only real security guarantee is a nuclear weapon."* *The architecture of the Abraham Accords, the security relationship between Israel and the United States, and the competing interests of Gulf states are also issues that merit serious discussion. "None of these are small issues," Grieco concluded. Yet in a world where the U.S. president is seeking a quick victory image and political gain, "the absence of any serious public discussion about the postwar order, while the war itself is still being fought, is a significant failure of strategic thinking."* --0000000000008697d4064e304c46 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
      http= s://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/2026-03-28/ty-article-magazine/.p= remium/iranian-quagmire-experts-warn-american-boots-on-the-ground-could-tra= p-u-s/0000019d-2e25-d8a3-abff-3e2598540000

      2/28/29

      'Iranian Quagmire': Experts Warn = American 'Boots on the Ground' Could Trap U.S. - Iran News

      3D"=D7=A4=

      U.S. Central Command, CENTCOM, is publishi= ng on its website the number of strikes carried out in Iran, the types of m= ilitary assets used, and the categories of targets =E2=80=93 from command-a= nd-control systems to ballistic missile sites. But the list contains no det= ails on specific targets, the munitions used, or what is known as BDA =E2= =80=93 battle damage assessment =E2=80=93 which indicates the effectiveness= of the operation and the extent to which its gains have been preserved.=C2=A0

      While it is clear the U.S. military= will not share every detail with the public or provide up-to-date satellit= e imagery from the battlefield, experts say the partial picture reflects an= other reason as well: an aerial bombing campaign is inherently limited.=

      "CENTCOM's targeting list points to the limita= tions of airpower and why boots on the ground keep coming up," Dr. Kel= ly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and an exper= t on aerial warfare, told Haaretz. Indeed, even as U.S. President Donald Tr= ump speaks about talks with Tehran and suspending attacks on Iranian energy= sites, American "boots" are already making their way to the Midd= le East. "The deployment of not one but two Marine Expeditionary Units= [roughly 5,000 Marines total, with reports of further reinforcements being= discussed] is not ambiguous," Grieco said.=C2=A0

      =
      3D"Buildings
      Buildings destroyed by U.S.-Isr= aeli strikes in Tehran on Monday.=C2=A0Credit: Vahid Salemi/= AP

      On Wednesday, The New York Times reported that= the Pentagon had ordered the deployment of about 2,000 paratroopers to the= Middle East. They are part of an immediate response force capable of deplo= ying anywhere in the world within 18 hours of an order. In total, roughly 5= 0,000 troops are currently assigned to the Iran operation.

      Even before the question of what missions U.S. ground forces might = be tasked with in Iran arises, there is growing concern about becoming enta= ngled in an "Iranian quagmire," as well as the deep public aversi= on in the=C2=A0United States=C2=A0to such ventures.

      Analysts point to two possible obje= ctives for a ground operation in Iran =E2=80=93 and the risks involved in e= ach. One could be the seizure of Kharg Island, the hub of Iran's oil ex= ports. But, according to Grieco, "Iran has been planning for exactly t= his contingency for decades. The geographic and tactical realities are unfa= vorable. Iranian forces would deploy drones and naval assets against ships = and forces in areas near the strait, making it a dangerous undertaking.&quo= t; She said it may be possible to take the island, but Iran would likely re= direct fire to other points along hundreds of kilometers of coastline, pull= ing drones and missiles inland, particularly into the more mountainous east= ern regions.

      3D"U.S.
      U.S. President D= onald Trump and first lady Melania Trump stand at attention as a U.S. Army = carry team moves a flag-draped transfer case containing the remains of Sgt.= 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens, killed by an Iranian drone in Kuwait, at Dover= Air Force Base earlier this month.=C2=A0Credit: Getty Image= s via AFP/ANNA MONEYMAKER

      A second possible objec= tive for ground forces would be to ensure the destruction of Iran's nuc= lear facilities or to secure its stockpile of enriched uranium. The United = States and Israel have struck nuclear sites both in June and in the current= round of fighting. But "such attacks can damage or temporarily disabl= e a facility," Grieco said, "yet they cannot guarantee its destru= ction or prevent it from being rebuilt or from producing enriched uranium a= gain."=C2=A0

      This, she added, is t= he structural argument for a ground operation =E2=80=93 and why such a pres= ence would likely come at a high cost. More broadly, she noted, claims that= Iran has been "set back decades" tend to exaggerate the impact o= f airstrikes. "The United States and Israel can degrade infrastructure= and known stockpiles, but they cannot bomb away the industrial knowledge n= eeded to rebuild."

      3D"A
      A ship near the Strai= t of Hormuz earlier this month.=C2=A0Credit: Stringer/Reuter= s

      There is another reason for the limits of the o= verwhelming air power wielded by the United States and Israel: this is not = a battlefield Iran seeks to win. "Tehran's strategy was never to m= atch U.S. or Israeli airpower symmetrically =E2=80=93 that would be unwinna= ble," Grieco said. Iran's strength, she argued, lies in sustaining= prolonged attrition, reflecting a core element of asymmetry: "Iran do= es not need to win militarily. It just needs not to lose badly enough to ke= ep launching." Another aspect of that asymmetry applies to the attacki= ng side as well: the challenge for the United States and Israel is not only= to intercept what is already in the air, but also to locate and destroy mo= bile launch systems. "The attacker has to find everything," Griec= o said. "The defender only has to hide something."

      And, of course, the asymmetry is especially evident when comparing= the costs of the war on both sides. "The cost exchange is not in Amer= ica's favor =E2=80=93 interceptors costing millions versus drones costi= ng thousands," Hartung said. According to him, "half or more of t= he cost so far has been for munitions and interceptors."

      In the wake of the=C2=A0war in Ukraine, which shares several features of = asymmetric warfare, Dr. Grieco and her colleague Maximilian have developed = the concept of "hybrid air denial." Unlike air superiority, which= prevents an adversary entirely from using the airspace, "air denial i= s more modest," she explained. "You don't need to win the air= war =E2=80=93 you just need to make the air domain sufficiently costly and= contested that the other side cannot operate freely."

      3D"Rally
      Rally in support of Iran's = Islamic regime in Tehran on Thursday.=C2=A0Credit: Vahid Sa= lemi/AP

      The "hybrid" aspect, she added,= is that this logic extends beyond the battlefield: cheap, widely available= drones can shut down airports, disrupt shipping lanes, drive civilian popu= lations into shelters, and erode public confidence in a government's ab= ility to defend its airspace =E2=80=93 all without a single soldier crossin= g a border.

      Iran has internalized this logic, Grieco= noted. "It doesn't need to defeat Israel or the United States in = the air. It needs to make the air domain costly enough, and the disruption = persistent enough, that Israeli civilian life is continuously strained and = the other side eventually asks whether the price is worth bearing indefinit= ely."

      Beyond the immediate questions ab= out the effectiveness of a ground operation and the persistence of asymmetr= ic warfare, the researchers also point to broader issues that warrant atten= tion. Regarding the limited information the Pentagon has released about the= =C2=A0targets of U.S. str= ikes, Hartung said that, alongside the fact that the administration is = not providing details even to members of Congress, "we see bombings of= elementary schools, hospitals and other non-military targets alongside mil= itary sites and political leadership." Trump, he said, "thought t= his would be 'easy,' like Venezuela. Instead, he set off a region-w= ide war."

      Grieco point= ed to another risk: U.S. rivals are watching and learning how to fight the = United States, particularly by studying Iran's use of drones and missil= es, a tactic refined over years by proxy forces in Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza.= Moreover, she added, "nobody is seriously asking what the Middle East= will look like when this is over. A weakened Iran is not necessarily a mor= e compliant Iran. A regime that has survived an American and Israeli milita= ry campaign, even a badly damaged one, may emerge more hardline, more isola= ted and more convinced that the only real security guarantee is a nuclear w= eapon."

      The architecture of the Abraham Accords= , the security relationship between Israel and the United States, and the c= ompeting interests of Gulf states are also issues that merit serious discus= sion. "None of these are small issues," Grieco concluded. Yet in = a world where the U.S. president is seeking a quick victory image and polit= ical gain, "the absence of any serious public discussion about the pos= twar order, while the war itself is still being fought, is a significant fa= ilure of strategic thinking."

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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:22:15 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:22:00 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzDkkKpJb7jeuxP2a7h-d9HTtitBekMrbH5i2VHFDaad61JRL_wPQTS_XJI Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0000000000000f29cf064e305404" Subject: [Salon] U.S. to Allow Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba, Breaking Blockade X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 21:22:18 -0000 --0000000000000f29cf064e305404 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable U.S. to Allow Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba, Breaking Blockade The tanker full of crude oil could reach its expected destination by Tuesday, providing a lifeline to the island amid intense U.S. pressure. Listen =C2=B7 6:55 min - Share full article - - [image: An evening city skyline with only some of the buildings illuminated.] Havana during a blackout this month.Credit...Adalberto Roque/Agence France-Presse =E2=80=94 Getty Images [image: Jack Nicas] [image: Eric Schmitt] By Jack Nicas and Eric Schmitt Jack Nicas reported from Mexico City, and Eric Schmitt from Washington. March 29, 2026, The New York Times The United States Coast Guard is allowing a Russian tanker full of crude oi= l to reach Cuba, delivering a critical supply of energy to the island nation after months of an effective oil blockade by the Trump administration, according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter. The tanker, which is carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil and is owned by the Russian government, was less than 15 miles from Cuban territorial waters on Sunday afternoon, according to MarineTraffic, a ship-data provider. At its speed of 12 knots, the ship was expected to enter Cuban waters by Sunday evening. The tanker could reach its expected destination of Matanzas, Cuba, by Tuesday. The Russian ship=E2=80=99s arrival would shift the trajectory of a rapidly accelerating crisis in Cuba, buying the island nation at least a few weeks before its fuel reserves run out, analysts said. It would also reduce pressure on a Cuban government facing a looming economic collapse and escalating threats from Washington, and show that, at least for now, the island can still depend on its longtime ally, Russia. The Trump administration had been enforcing what amounted to an oil blockad= e around Cuba since January, threatening nations that had been sending fuel to the country and, in one case, escorting a tanker heading toward Cuba away from the island. It was unclear why the White House has now decided to let Russia bring oil to Cuba nor whether it would allow future Russian oil shipments to reach the island. The decision avoids a potential thorny confrontation with Russia just off the coast of Florida. The U.S. military has reduced its large presence in the Caribbean since before the start of the war in Iran, but the Coast Guard still has two cutters in the region that could have attempted to intercept the tanker. Yet the Trump administration did not order those vessels to act, according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operations. The Coast Guard planned to let the tanker reach Cuba as of Sunday afternoon, the official said. The Coast Guard referred questions to the White House, which did not respond to a request for comment. Russian and Cuban officials also did not respond. The U.S. oil blockade has been choking Cuba, leading to daily blackouts, severe gas shortages, soaring prices and deteriorating medical care. The policy has attracted international criticism, including from the United Nations, that the United States is causing a humanitarian crisis in Cuba. At the same time, White House officials have been threatening the Cuban government publicly, while pushing it privately to remove its president , Miguel D=C3=ADaz-Canel. Editors=E2=80=99 Picks The Biggest Names in Fine Dining Now Have Rock-Star Residencies 27 of Our Best Passover Recipes New Blood Tests Can Detect Early Signs of Alzheimer=E2=80=99s: Should You G= et One? President Trump said this month that he believed he will =E2=80=9Cbe having= the honor of taking Cuba =E2=80=9D and suggested that he could target the island with military force after the Iran war. =E2=80=9CI built this great military,=E2=80=9D he said at an inve= stment conference on Friday. =E2=80=9CI said, =E2=80=98You=E2=80=99ll never have t= o use it.=E2=80=99 But sometimes you have to use it. And Cuba is next, by the way.=E2=80=9D Image [image: A person in a red floral shirt and another in a red top pedal bicycles. In the background, a billboard shows three portraits of people and Spanish text.] Images of former Cuban presidents Fidel Castro and Ra=C3=BAl Castro, and th= e current president, Miguel D=C3=ADaz-Canel, in Havana this month.Credit...Ra= mon Espinosa/Associated Press Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that the White House wanted new leaders in Cuba. =E2=80=9CCuba=E2=80=99s economy needs to change, and t= heir economy can=E2=80=99t change unless their system of government changes,=E2=80=9D he= told reporters. Cuban officials have dug in, saying the nation is prepared to defend itself= . =E2=80=9COur military is always prepared and, in fact, it is preparing thes= e days for the possibility of military aggression,=E2=80=9D Cuba=E2=80=99s deputy = foreign minister, Carlos Fern=C3=A1ndez de Coss=C3=ADo, said on NBC=E2=80=99s Meet = the Press last week. =E2=80=9CWe would be na=C3=AFve if, looking at what=E2=80=99s happeni= ng around the world, we would not do that. But we truly hope that it doesn=E2=80=99t occur.=E2= =80=9D The Russian oil may now changes the shape of tensions between the countries. Cuba was quickly running out of energy supplies, relying on solar power, domestic oil production and small fuel shipments to private Cuban businesses to prop up a failing energy grid. The crisis had led to small protests =E2=80=94 a rarity in Cuba =E2=80=94 and was raising questio= ns of how the government would survive. But the Russian oil will ease that crisis, at least temporarily. The oil can be refined into various products, including diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and fuel oil, which is used to power many Cuban power plants. That should help stabilize the energy grid, reduce blackouts, improve transportation and aid agricultural production, said Jorge Pi=C3=B1=C3=B3n, a former oil e= xecutive who studies Cuba=E2=80=99s energy system at the University of Texas. =E2=80=9CIt buys them time,=E2=80=9D Mr. Pi=C3=B1=C3=B3n said. =E2=80=9CBut= this is not a magic wand that all of a sudden, by the arrival of this tanker, all of their problems are solved.=E2=80=9D Mr. Pi=C3=B1=C3=B3n said that the oil would take about three weeks to refin= e into other products and then another week to be distributed around the country. Diesel he said, is the most critical product for Cuba, as it powers trucks, tractors and many power plants, and is in desperately short supply on the island. Some humanitarian aid has been trapped at warehouses because trucks don=E2=80=99t have diesel to distribute it, farms have been paralyzed with powerless tractors and some power plants have been shut down because of a lack of fuel. Image [image: A bright sun in an orange sky reflecting on water. There are silhouetted industrial buildings and smokestacks emitting dark plumes.] An oil refinery in Havana Bay last month.Credit...Ramon Espinosa/Associated Press Cuba has kept the lights on =E2=80=94 albeit inconsistently =E2=80=94 becau= se 40 percent of its energy grid is supported by power plants that largely run on crude oil that Cuba produces domestically. Cuba has also been racing to install solar panels to prop up the grid. But Mr. Pi=C3=B1=C3=B3n said that 40 percent of= the grid depends on smaller power plants that use diesel. He estimated that Cuba could use up the Russian oil in less than a month. But he expected the government to preserve some energy supplies for its strategic reserves and security forces. =E2=80=9CThis is going to give diesel to the police, to the military units,= to basically the whole apparatus of the Cuban government,=E2=80=9D he said. The Russian tanker, which is called the Anatoly Kolodkin, left Primorsk, Russia, on the Baltic Sea on March 9. The U.S. government placed sanctions on the tanker and its owner, a Russian state-owned shipping company called Sovcomflot, in 2024. The Anatoly Kolodkin initially broadcast its destination as =E2=80=9CAtlant= is, USA,=E2=80=9D a possible joke. On Sunday, it was broadcasting its destinati= on as Matanzas, Cuba, according to MarineTraffic. Carlos Alzugaray, a former Cuban diplomat who lives in Havana, said that the Trump administration had set up the blockade to try to strangle the Cuban government into submission, but that it was taking longer than expected even before the Russian oil neared. =E2=80=9CTrump and Rubio are thinking in terms of this government collapsin= g on its own,=E2=80=9D he said. =E2=80=9CBut that=E2=80=99s not the way that the Cub= an government sees it. The Cuban government is convinced that they can survive.=E2=80=9D Christiaan Triebert contributed reporting. Jack Nicas is The Times=E2=80=99s M= exico City bureau chief, leading coverage of Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. Eric Schmitt is a national security correspondent for The Times. He has reported on U.S. military affairs and counterterrorism for more than three decades. --0000000000000f29cf064e305404 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

      U.S. to Allow Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba, B= reaking Blockade

      T= he tanker full of crude oil could reach its expected destination by Tuesday= , providing a lifeline to the island amid intense U.S. pressure.

      <= div class=3D"gmail-css-b8gc4a" style=3D"margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;f= ont:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;display:flex;width:276.7px;outline:tran= sparent solid 1.6px">
      Listen=C2=A0= =C2=B7 6:55 min
      3D"An
      Havana during a blackout this month.Credit...Adalberto Roque/Agence France-Presse =E2=80=94 Gett= y Images
      3D"Jack3D"Eric

      By=C2=A0Jack Nicas=C2=A0and=C2=A0Eric Schmitt

      Jack Nicas reported from Mexico= City, and Eric Schmitt from Washington.

      <= div class=3D"gmail-css-1c72mta" style=3D"margin:0.25rem auto 0.125rem;paddi= ng:0px;border:0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;outline:transparent = solid 1.6px;width:600px;max-width:600px;display:flex">March 29, 2026, The New York Times

      a Russian tanker full o= f crude oil=C2=A0to reach Cuba, delivering a critical supply of energy = to the island nation after months of an effective oil blockade by the Trump= administration, according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter.

      The = tanker, which is carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil and is owned = by the Russian government, was less than 15 miles from Cuban territorial wa= ters on Sunday afternoon, according to MarineTraffic, a ship-data provider.= At its speed of 12 knots, the ship was expected to enter Cuban waters by S= unday evening. The tanker could reach its expected destination of Matanzas,= Cuba, by Tuesday.

      The Russian ship=E2=80=99s arrival would shift the tra= jectory of a rapidly accelerating crisis in Cuba, buying the island nation = at least a few weeks before its fuel reserves run out, analysts said.

      It would also red= uce pressure on a Cuban government facing a looming economic collapse and e= scalating threats from Washington, and show that, at least for now, the isl= and can still depend on its longtime ally, Russia.

      The Trump administration had b= een enforcing what=C2=A0amounted to an oil blockade=C2=A0around Cuba = since January, threatening nations that had been sending fuel to the countr= y and, in one case, escorting a tanker heading toward Cuba away from the is= land.

      It was unclear why the White House has now decided to let Russia br= ing oil to Cuba nor whether it would allow future Russian oil shipments to = reach the island. The decision avoids a potential thorny confrontation with= Russia just off the coast of Florida.

      The U.S. military has reduced its = large presence in the Caribbean since before the start of the war in Iran, = but the Coast Guard still has two cutters in the region that could have att= empted to intercept the tanker. Yet the Trump administration did not order = those vessels to act, according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter wh= o spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operations. The Coast Guar= d planned to let the tanker reach Cuba as of Sunday afternoon, the official= said.

      The Coast Guard referred questions to the White House, which did n= ot respond to a request for comment. Russian and Cuban officials also did n= ot respond.

      = The U.S. oil blockade has been choking Cuba, leading to daily blackouts, se= vere gas shortages, soaring prices and deteriorating medical care. The poli= cy has attracted international criticism, including from the United Nations= , that the United States is causing a humanitarian crisis in Cuba. At the s= ame time, White House officials have been threatening the Cuban government = publicly, while pushing it privately to=C2=A0remove its president= , Miguel D=C3=ADaz-Canel.

      Editors= =E2=80=99 Picks

      3D""

      The Biggest Names in Fine Dining Now Have Ro= ck-Star Residencies

      <= div class=3D"gmail-css-1rcvpgy" style=3D"margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;= font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;outline:transparent solid 1.6px;width:= 75px">3D""

      27 of Our Best Passover Recipes

      <= a class=3D"gmail-css-1sj6bre" href=3D"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/we= ll/mind/alzheimers-blood-tests.html" style=3D"margin:0px;padding:0px;border= :0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;text-decoration-line:none;color:b= lack;outline:transparent solid 1.6px;height:85px;display:flex">

      New Blood Tests Can Detect Early Signs of Alzheimer=E2=80=99s: Sh= ould You Get One?

      = President Trump said this month that he believed he will =E2=80=9Cbe hav= ing the honor of taking Cuba=E2=80=9D and suggested that he could targe= t the island with military force after the Iran war. =E2=80=9CI built this = great military,=E2=80=9D he said at an investment conference on Friday. =E2= =80=9CI said, =E2=80=98You=E2=80=99ll never have to use it.=E2=80=99 But so= metimes you have to use it. And Cuba is next, by the way.=E2=80=9D

      Image
      3D"A
      Images of former Cuban president= s Fidel Castro and Ra=C3=BAl Castro, and the current president, Miguel D=C3= =ADaz-Canel, in Havana this month.= Credit...Ram= on Espinosa/Associated Press

      Secretary of State Marco Rub= io said on Friday that the White House wanted new leaders in Cuba. =E2=80= =9CCuba=E2=80=99s economy needs to change, and their economy can=E2=80=99t = change unless their system of government changes,=E2=80=9D he told reporter= s.

      Cuban officials have dug in, saying the nation is prepared to defend i= tself.

      =E2=80=9COur military is always prepared and, in fact, it is prepa= ring these days for the possibility of military aggression,=E2=80=9D Cuba= =E2=80=99s deputy foreign minister, Carlos Fern=C3=A1ndez de Coss=C3=ADo, s= aid on NBC=E2=80=99s Meet the Press last week. =E2=80=9CWe would be na=C3= =AFve if, looking at what=E2=80=99s happening around the world, we would no= t do that. But we truly hope that it doesn=E2=80=99t occur.=E2=80=9D

      The Russian oil ma= y now changes the shape of tensions between the countries. Cuba was quickly= running out of energy supplies, relying on solar power, domestic oil produ= ction and small fuel shipments to private Cuban businesses to prop up a fai= ling energy grid. The crisis had led to small protests =E2=80=94 a rarity i= n Cuba =E2=80=94 and was raising questions of how the government would surv= ive.

      =
      <= p class=3D"gmail-css-ac37hb evys1bk0" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0.9375rem;pad= ding:0px;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;font-weight:inh= erit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.875rem;font-famil= y:nyt-imperial,georgia,"times new roman",times,serif;font-size-ad= just:inherit;font-kerning:inherit;font-feature-settings:inherit;vertical-al= ign:baseline;outline:transparent solid 1.6px;width:600px;max-width:100%">Bu= t the Russian oil will ease that crisis, at least temporarily. The oil can = be refined into various products, including diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and = fuel oil, which is used to power many Cuban power plants. That should help = stabilize the energy grid, reduce blackouts, improve transportation and aid= agricultural production, said Jorge Pi=C3=B1=C3=B3n, a former oil executiv= e who studies Cuba=E2=80=99s energy system at the University of Texas.

      <= p class=3D"gmail-css-ac37hb evys1bk0" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0.9375rem;pad= ding:0px;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;font-weight:inh= erit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.875rem;font-famil= y:nyt-imperial,georgia,"times new roman",times,serif;font-size-ad= just:inherit;font-kerning:inherit;font-feature-settings:inherit;vertical-al= ign:baseline;outline:transparent solid 1.6px;width:600px;max-width:100%">= =E2=80=9CIt buys them time,=E2=80=9D Mr. Pi=C3=B1=C3=B3n said. =E2=80=9CBut= this is not a magic wand that all of a sudden, by the arrival of this tank= er, all of their problems are solved.=E2=80=9D

      Mr. Pi=C3=B1=C3=B3n said t= hat the oil would take about three weeks to refine into other products and = then another week to be distributed around the country.

      Diesel he said, is the most cri= tical product for Cuba, as it powers trucks, tractors and many power plants= , and is in desperately short supply on the island. Some humanitarian aid h= as been trapped at warehouses because trucks don=E2=80=99t have diesel to d= istribute it, farms have been paralyzed with powerless tractors and some po= wer plants have been shut down because of a lack of fuel.

      Image
      3D"A
      An oil refinery in Havana Bay last month.Credit...Ramon Espinosa/Associated Press
      =

      Cuba has kept the lig= hts on =E2=80=94 albeit inconsistently =E2=80=94 because 40 percent of its = energy grid is supported by power plants that largely run on crude oil that= Cuba produces domestically. Cuba has also been racing to install solar pan= els to prop up the grid. But Mr. Pi=C3=B1=C3=B3n said that 40 percent of th= e grid depends on smaller power plants that use diesel.

      He estimated that Cuba could= use up the Russian oil in less than a month. But he expected the governmen= t to preserve some energy supplies for its strategic reserves and security = forces.

      =E2=80=9CThis is going to give diesel to the police, to the milit= ary units, to basically the whole apparatus of the Cuban government,=E2=80= =9D he said.

      The Russian tanker, which is called the Anatoly Kolodkin, le= ft Primorsk, Russia, on the Baltic Sea on March 9. The U.S. government plac= ed sanctions on the tanker and its owner, a Russian state-owned shipping co= mpany called Sovcomflot, in 2024.

      The Anatoly Kolodkin initially broadcast its destinat= ion as =E2=80=9CAtlantis, USA,=E2=80=9D a possible joke. On Sunday, it was = broadcasting its destination as Matanzas, Cuba, according to MarineTraffic.=

      =

      Carlos = Alzugaray, a former Cuban diplomat who lives in Havana, said that the Trump= administration had set up the blockade to try to strangle the Cuban govern= ment into submission, but that it was taking longer than expected even befo= re the Russian oil neared.

      =E2=80=9CTrump and Rubio are thinking in term= s of this government collapsing on its own,=E2=80=9D he said. =E2=80=9CBut = that=E2=80=99s not the way that the Cuban government sees it. The Cuban gov= ernment is convinced that they can survive.=E2=80=9D

      Christiaan Triebert= =C2=A0contributed reporting.

      =

      Jack Nicas=C2=A0is The = Times=E2=80=99s Mexico City bureau chief, leading coverage of Mexico, Centr= al America and the Caribbean.

      Eric Schmitt=C2= =A0is a national security correspondent for The Times. He has reported on U= .S. military affairs and counterterrorism for more than three decades.

      <= /div>
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Sun, 29 Mar 2026 14:25:52 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 From: Chas Freeman Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:25:37 -0400 X-Gm-Features: AQROBzA8DZ4bxym0D0PUqr0Vux6td4RwzbUAbXbQeA7UwWP3EwpDb1WpZGltxkY Message-ID: To: salon@listserve.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000fbbec8064e306006" Subject: [Salon] The Houthi Threat is Not to Israel, But to the World X-BeenThere: salon@listserve.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.33 Precedence: list List-Id: Discussion List for the Committee For The Republic List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 21:25:55 -0000 --000000000000fbbec8064e306006 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable The Houthi Threat is Not to Israel, But to the World Israel is too far away for Iran=E2=80=99s Yemeni allies to do real damage there. B= ut there are juicy targets much closer at hand. Bobby Ghosh Mar 29 The Houthis' daggers are no longer sheathed. The world watched, with varying degrees of alarm, as the Houthis entered the war in the Middle East. The Yemeni group, long aligned with Iran, fired what it claimed was a barrage of missiles at Israel on Saturday morning. The IDF intercepted the incoming projectiles without difficulty =E2=80=94 a= s it has intercepted the great majority of the long-range Houthi attacks launched at Israel since 2023. At more than 2,000 miles from Sanaa, Israel is a hard target for Yemen=E2=80=99s arsenal, and for now the danger there is limited= . The more urgent question for the wider world is what the Houthis will do next =E2=80=94 specifically, whether they take aim at targets considerably = closer to home. The biggest concern was flagged in a single line from a Bloomberg report published on the morning of the Houthi salvo: Saudi Arabia=E2=80=99s East-W= est pipeline has hit its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day. Tankers are queuing at the Red Sea port of Yanbu to collect the crude. The pipeline, 750 miles of steel threading across the Arabian Peninsula, has become, overnight, the most important piece of industrial infrastructure on earth. And the people who just fired those missiles are sitting awfully close to the other end of it. Yanbu is just 600 miles from the Saudi-Yemeni border. Now lets get the numbers straight, because the numbers are what make this terrifying. Before the US and Israel struck Iran on February 28, roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day flowed through the Strait of Hormuz =E2=80= =94 one-fifth of everything the world burns, according to the IEA=E2=80=99s own= data for 2025. Iran=E2=80=99s de facto closure of that strait has choked off approximately 15 million barrels of Gulf crude exports, with the IEA=E2=80= =99s March Oil Market Report describing this as the largest supply disruption in the history of global oil markets. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have two bypass routes =E2=80=94 the East-West pip= eline to Yanbu and Abu Dhabi=E2=80=99s ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah =E2=80=94 with a c= ombined maximum capacity of 8 to 9 million barrels per day. Experts reckon that even if these pipelines run at full tilt, that will leave about 10 percent of global supply bottlenecked until transit through Hormuz resumes. That is why Brent crude is trading above $100 a barrel for the first time in years, with periodic spikes above $110. That is why the IEA organized the largest emergency reserve release in its 50-year history =E2=80=94 400 = million barrels across 32 member countries, which sounds enormous until you realize, as the US Energy Department=E2=80=99s own delivery schedule implie= s, that it amounts to roughly 1.4 million barrels per day =E2=80=94 barely 15 perce= nt of the supply lost through the Hormuz closure. The Trump administration, according to Bloomberg, is internally stress-testing a scenario in which oil reaches $200 a barrel. That is not a prediction, it is an acknowledgment that the current trajectory makes things that once seemed like pure fiction worth modeling. The East-West pipeline =E2=80=94 known as Petroline =E2=80=94 was built in = 1981, at a cost of $2.4 billion, by Saudi planners who feared exactly the scenario that has now arrived. They were watching the Iran-Iraq war and they understood the Strait of Hormuz=E2=80=99s vulnerability. The pipeline was their hedge: a d= esert route to the Red Sea that could keep Saudi crude flowing even if the Gulf became a war zone. For four decades, it was a contingency: occasionally tested, but rarely stressed. This month, for the first time in its history, it is running at full capacity. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser confirmed the milestone on an earnings call, and the Bloomberg report formalized it on Saturday: the 1,200-kilometer pipeline is pumping 7 million barrels a day, of which 5 million are available for export, with the remainder feeding Saudi refineries and domestic demand. The planners of 1981 can feel vindicated. Their pipe is now, improbably, the release valve for the global economy. There is only one problem. In routing around Iranian leverage at Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has transferred that leverage to Iran=E2=80=99s most capable p= roxy. The Petroline deposits its crude at Yanbu, on the Red Sea. From there, that crude must be loaded onto Very Large Crude Carriers =E2=80=94 supertankers = that, because the vast majority of Saudi oil is destined for Asian markets, must head south through the Red Sea, through the strait known as Bab el-Mandeb. The Houthis control the eastern shore of the Bab el-Mandeb. As David Butter, an associate fellow at Chatham House, wrote in an analysis just last week, the bypass pipelines are vulnerable to Iranian attack =E2=80=94 = and if the Houthis enter the fray, they could disrupt Saudi exports from Yanbu entirely. This is not an abstract vulnerability, it is a demonstrated one. The Houthis struck the East-West pipeline with drones in May 2019, temporarily shutting it down. They have struck targets around the pipeline on at least four separate occasions over the past decade. Earlier this month, a drone hit a refinery at Yanbu, and a ballistic missile targeting the port was intercepted. The Houthis have not yet trained their full arsenal on Saudi Arabia=E2=80= =99s last oil exit =E2=80=94 but they have been ranging in. What would a sustained disruption of Yanbu do to oil prices? Gregory Brew, a historian of Iranian oil and senior analyst at Eurasia Group, put the incremental figure plainly: =E2=80=9CIf the Houthis attacked Yanbu and if t= hey did enough to disrupt exports from the terminal, then you=E2=80=99re looking at= a disruption of 7 million barrels per day.=E2=80=9D Add that to the existing = Hormuz shortfall and the total supply shock climbs toward 15 million barrels per day or more. Major banks are already running the numbers: Barclays puts Brent at $130 to $150 under a full dual-chokepoint scenario; Macquarie assigns a 40 percent probability to $200 oil by June =E2=80=94 a nominal price never reached in = the history of markets; Goldman Sachs warns that even a credible threat to the Bab el-Mandeb, without a shot fired, could push prices to $120. The 400-million-barrel IEA reserve release =E2=80=94 the largest in the age= ncy=E2=80=99s 50-year history =E2=80=94 covers roughly four weeks of the current disrupti= on, per Wood Mackenzie. After that, there is no reload. A supply shock of this scale would be three to five times larger than the 1973 Arab embargo, which removed just 7 percent of global supply and still produced a 300 percent price increase. The IMF estimates that a 10 percent rise in oil prices adds 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to global headline inflation within 12 months. I=E2=80=99ll leave you to do the arithmetic on oil at $150. And at $200. Here is the question that separates serious analysis from commentary, and the answer is more interesting than a simple yes or no. Iran=E2=80=99s control of Hormuz rests on geography and military capacity. = Its territory borders the strait. Even with its conventional navy destroyed by US attacks, its speedboats and missile forces are sufficient to make commercial transit lethal, forcing the world=E2=80=99s largest shipping com= panies to sit on their hands. The Houthis don=E2=80=99t have comparable numbers of= boats and missiles. They cannot impose the same kind of militarized exclusion zone in open water against the US Fifth Fleet. But they don=E2=80=99t need to. As the Armed Conflict Location and Event Da= ta project (ACLED) notes in its 2026 Red Sea analysis, =E2=80=9Cthe Houthis=E2= =80=99 real strength lies not in the volume of their arsenal but in their ability to sustain a high perception of risk.=E2=80=9D Between late 2023 and mid-2025, the Houthis launched more than 130 attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea corridor. They never formally closed the Bab el-Mandeb. And yet, the US Defense Intelligence Agency reported that those attacks caused a 90 percent decrease in container shipping through the Red Sea from December 2023 to February 2024. According to UNCTAD=E2=80=99s annual review, Suez Canal traffic fell from 2,068 transits= in November 2023 to roughly 877 by October 2024. The EIA confirmed that oil flows through the Bab el-Mandeb were cut in half. All that, without physically shutting the strait: the Houthis simply made shipping in those waters commercially uninsurable for most operators. They could do the same thing now, at a moment when Saudi Arabia has no alternative to Yanbu, and when the economic consequences of even partial disruption would be catastrophic rather than merely costly. As a number of analysts of the Middle East have observed, the Houthis function as Iran=E2=80=99s most potent reserve card =E2=80=94 to be played = when Tehran judges the moment has arrived. Saturday=E2=80=99s missile volleys suggest t= hat moment may be closer than markets currently price. There is one real constraint: the uneasy ceasefire the Houthis have maintained with Saudi Arabia since 2022. Attacking Yanbu directly =E2=80=94 striking the kingdom=E2=80=99s territory, its refineries, its port infrastr= ucture =E2=80=94 would cross a line that Riyadh could not ignore and would invite a devastating response. But, as the International Crisis Group=E2=80=99s Ahme= d Nagi told Radio Free Europe: =E2=80=9CIf the military pressure on Iran increases= or the war enters a more critical phase, the Houthis could still jump in despite the potential costs on their domestic front in Yemen.=E2=80=9D Note the precision of Saturday=E2=80=99s statement from the Houthis=E2=80= =99 deputy information minister: =E2=80=9CWe are conducting this battle in stages, and= closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is among our options.=E2=80=9D That=E2=80=99s not = a threat, it is a declaration of leverage. The Houthis are showing the world their next card before they decide whether to play it. The more likely near-term move, and arguably the more insidious one, is not a direct strike on Saudi soil but a resumption of the 2023 Red Sea campaign: sporadic attacks on tankers loading from Yanbu, sufficient to drive insurance withdrawals and shipping-company exits without formally crossing the threshold of striking Saudi territory. The effect on oil markets would be similar. The political cost to the Houthis would be considerably lower. Here is the strategic geography, stated plainly. Block Hormuz and Gulf crude cannot leave the Persian Gulf. Block Bab el-Mandeb and it cannot reach Europe or Asia from the Red Sea. Together, they constitute the entire export pathway for Gulf oil. You can route around one of them, but there is nowhere to route around both. The men who built the Petroline in 1981 were prescient enough to see that the Strait of Hormuz was vulnerable. But they couldn=E2=80=99t have anticip= ated a scenario in which bypassing one chokepoint would only deliver Saudi oil to a second, controlled by the same adversary=E2=80=99s most formidable ally. That pipeline is running at full capacity today. Whether it is still running at full capacity next week may be the most consequential question in the global economy =E2=80=94 and it will be answered not in Tehran, not = in Washington, not in Jerusalem, but in Sanaa. --000000000000fbbec8064e306006 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

      The Houthi Threat= is Not to Israel, But to the World

      Israel is too far away for Iran=E2=80=99s Yemeni alli= es to do real damage there. But there are juicy targets much closer at hand= .

      =
      Mar 29
      =C2=A0

      		=

      =C2=A0
      =3D""
      The Houthis' daggers = are no longer sheathed.

      The world watched, with varying degrees of ala= rm, as the Houthis entered the war in the Middle East. The Yemeni group, lo= ng aligned with Iran, fired what it claimed was a barrage of missiles at Is= rael on Saturday morning.

      The IDF intercepted the incoming projectiles withou= t difficulty =E2=80=94 as it has intercepted the great majority of the long= -range Houthi attacks launched at Israel since 2023. At more than 2,000 mil= es from Sanaa, Israel is a hard target for Yemen=E2=80=99s arsenal, and for= now the danger there is limited.

      The more urgent question for the wider worl= d is what the Houthis will do next =E2=80=94 specifically, whether they tak= e aim at targets considerably closer to home.

      The biggest concern was flagged= in a single line from a Bloomberg report published on the morning of the H= outhi salvo: Saudi Arabia=E2=80=99s East-West pipeline has hit its full cap= acity of 7 million barrels per day. Tankers are queuing at the Red Sea port= of Yanbu to collect the crude. The pipeline, 750 miles of steel threading = across the Arabian Peninsula, has become, overnight, the most important pie= ce of industrial infrastructure on earth.

      And the people who just fired those= missiles are sitting awfully close to the other end of it. Yanbu is just 6= 00 miles from the Saudi-Yemeni border.

      Now lets get the numbers straight, bec= ause the numbers are what make this terrifying. Before the US and Israel st= ruck Iran on February 28, roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day flowed = through the Strait of Hormuz =E2=80=94 one-fifth of everything the world bu= rns, according to the IEA=E2=80=99s own data for 2025. Iran=E2=80=99s de fa= cto closure of that strait has choked off approximately 15 million barrels = of Gulf crude exports, with the IEA=E2=80=99s March Oil Market Report descr= ibing this as the largest supply disruption in the history of global oil ma= rkets.

      Saudi Arabia and the UAE have two bypass routes =E2=80=94 the East-Wes= t pipeline to Yanbu and Abu Dhabi=E2=80=99s ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah =E2= =80=94 with a combined maximum capacity of 8 to 9 million barrels per day. = Experts reckon that even if these pipelines run at full tilt, that will lea= ve about 10 percent of global supply bottlenecked until transit through Hor= muz resumes.

      That is why Brent crude is trading above $100 a barrel for the f= irst time in years, with periodic spikes above $110. That is why the IEA or= ganized the largest emergency reserve release in its 50-year history =E2=80= =94 400 million barrels across 32 member countries, which sounds enormous u= ntil you realize, as the US Energy Department=E2=80=99s own delivery schedu= le implies, that it amounts to roughly 1.4 million barrels per day =E2=80= =94 barely 15 percent of the supply lost through the Hormuz closure.

      The Trum= p administration, according to Bloomberg, is internally stress-testing a sc= enario in which oil reaches $200 a barrel. That is not a prediction, it is = an acknowledgment that the current trajectory makes things that once seemed= like pure fiction worth modeling.

      The East-West pipeline =E2=80=94 known as = Petroline =E2=80=94 was built in 1981, at a cost of $2.4 billion, by Saudi = planners who feared exactly the scenario that has now arrived. They were wa= tching the Iran-Iraq war and they understood the Strait of Hormuz=E2=80=99s= vulnerability. The pipeline was their hedge: a desert route to the Red Sea= that could keep Saudi crude flowing even if the Gulf became a war zone.

      For = four decades, it was a contingency: occasionally tested, but rarely stresse= d. This month, for the first time in its history, it is running at full cap= acity. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser confirmed the milestone on an earnings call, = and the Bloomberg report formalized it on Saturday: the 1,200-kilometer pip= eline is pumping 7 million barrels a day, of which 5 million are available = for export, with the remainder feeding Saudi refineries and domestic demand= .

      = The planners of 1981 can feel vindicated. Their pipe is now, improbably, th= e release valve for the global economy.

      There is only one problem. In routing= around Iranian leverage at Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has transferred that lever= age to Iran=E2=80=99s most capable proxy. The Petroline deposits its crude = at Yanbu, on the Red Sea. From there, that crude must be loaded onto Very L= arge Crude Carriers =E2=80=94 supertankers that, because the vast majority = of Saudi oil is destined for Asian markets, must head south through the Red= Sea, through the strait known as Bab el-Mandeb.

      The Houthis control the east= ern shore of the Bab el-Mandeb. As David Butter, an associate fellow at Cha= tham House, wrote in an analysis just last week, the bypass pipelines are v= ulnerable to Iranian attack =E2=80=94 and if the Houthis enter the fray, th= ey could disrupt Saudi exports from Yanbu entirely.

      This is not an abstract v= ulnerability, it is a demonstrated one. The Houthis struck the East-West pi= peline with drones in May 2019, temporarily shutting it down. They have str= uck targets around the pipeline on at least four separate occasions over th= e past decade. Earlier this month, a drone hit a refinery at Yanbu, and a b= allistic missile targeting the port was intercepted.

      The Houthis have not yet= trained their full arsenal on Saudi Arabia=E2=80=99s last oil exit =E2=80= =94 but they have been ranging in.

      What would a sustained disruption of Yanbu= do to oil prices? Gregory Brew, a historian of Iranian oil and senior anal= yst at Eurasia Group, put the incremental figure plainly: =E2=80=9CIf the H= outhis attacked Yanbu and if they did enough to disrupt exports from the te= rminal, then you=E2=80=99re looking at a disruption of 7 million barrels pe= r day.=E2=80=9D Add that to the existing Hormuz shortfall and the total sup= ply shock climbs toward 15 million barrels per day or more.

      Major banks are a= lready running the numbers: Barclays puts Brent at $130 to $150 under a ful= l dual-chokepoint scenario; Macquarie assigns a 40 percent probability to $= 200 oil by June =E2=80=94 a nominal price never reached in the history of m= arkets; Goldman Sachs warns that even a credible threat to the Bab el-Mande= b, without a shot fired, could push prices to $120.

      The 400-million-barrel IE= A reserve release =E2=80=94 the largest in the agency=E2=80=99s 50-year his= tory =E2=80=94 covers roughly four weeks of the current disruption, per Woo= d Mackenzie. After that, there is no reload. A supply shock of this scale w= ould be three to five times larger than the 1973 Arab embargo, which remove= d just 7 percent of global supply and still produced a 300 percent price in= crease. The IMF estimates that a 10 percent rise in oil prices adds 0.3 to = 0.4 percentage points to global headline inflation within 12 months.

      I=E2=80= =99ll leave you to do the arithmetic on oil at $150. And at $200.

      Here is the= question that separates serious analysis from commentary, and the answer i= s more interesting than a simple yes or no.

      Iran=E2=80=99s control of Hormuz = rests on geography and military capacity. Its territory borders the strait.= Even with its conventional navy destroyed by US attacks, its speedboats an= d missile forces are sufficient to make commercial transit lethal, forcing = the world=E2=80=99s largest shipping companies to sit on their hands. The H= outhis don=E2=80=99t have comparable numbers of boats and missiles. They ca= nnot impose the same kind of militarized exclusion zone in open water again= st the US Fifth Fleet.

      But they don=E2=80=99t need to. As the Armed Conflict = Location and Event Data project (ACLED) notes in its 2026 Red Sea analysis,= =E2=80=9Cthe Houthis=E2=80=99 real strength lies not in the volume of thei= r arsenal but in their ability to sustain a high perception of risk.=E2=80= =9D

      All that, without physically shutting= the strait: the Houthis simply made shipping in those waters commercially = uninsurable for most operators.

      They could do the same thing now, at a moment= when Saudi Arabia has no alternative to Yanbu, and when the economic conse= quences of even partial disruption would be catastrophic rather than merely= costly.

      As a number of analysts of the Middle East have observed, the Houthi= s function as Iran=E2=80=99s most potent reserve card =E2=80=94 to be playe= d when Tehran judges the moment has arrived. Saturday=E2=80=99s missile vol= leys suggest that moment may be closer than markets currently price.

      There is= one real constraint: the uneasy ceasefire the Houthis have maintained with= Saudi Arabia since 2022. Attacking Yanbu directly =E2=80=94 striking the k= ingdom=E2=80=99s territory, its refineries, its port infrastructure =E2=80= =94 would cross a line that Riyadh could not ignore and would invite a deva= stating response. But, as the International Crisis Group=E2=80=99s Ahmed Na= gi told Radio Free Europe: =E2=80=9CIf the military pressure on Iran increa= ses or the war enters a more critical phase, the Houthis could still jump i= n despite the potential costs on their domestic front in Yemen.=E2=80=9D

      Note= the precision of Saturday=E2=80=99s statement from the Houthis=E2=80=99 de= puty information minister: =E2=80=9CWe are conducting this battle in stages= , and closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is among our options.=E2=80=9D That= =E2=80=99s not a threat, it is a declaration of leverage. The Houthis are s= howing the world their next card before they decide whether to play it.

      =

      The m= ore likely near-term move, and arguably the more insidious one, is not a di= rect strike on Saudi soil but a resumption of the 2023 Red Sea campaign: sp= oradic attacks on tankers loading from Yanbu, sufficient to drive insurance= withdrawals and shipping-company exits without formally crossing the thres= hold of striking Saudi territory. The effect on oil markets would be simila= r. The political cost to the Houthis would be considerably lower.

      Here is the= strategic geography, stated plainly. Block Hormuz and Gulf crude cannot le= ave the Persian Gulf. Block Bab el-Mandeb and it cannot reach Europe or Asi= a from the Red Sea. Together, they constitute the entire export pathway for= Gulf oil. You can route around one of them, but there is nowhere to route = around both.

      The men who built the Petroline in 1981 were prescient enough to= see that the Strait of Hormuz was vulnerable. But they couldn=E2=80=99t ha= ve anticipated a scenario in which bypassing one chokepoint would only deli= ver Saudi oil to a second, controlled by the same adversary=E2=80=99s most = formidable ally.

      That pipeline is running at full capacity today. Whether it is still = running at full capacity next week may be the most consequential question i= n the global economy =E2=80=94 and it will be answered not in Tehran, not i= n Washington, not in Jerusalem, but in Sanaa.