Israeli Support for Iran War Wanes After Early Enthusiasm, Poll Shows
The share of Israeli Jews who say they 'somewhat' or 'strongly' oppose the war has more than doubled – from 4 percent in the previous two polls to 11.5 percent. Among the Arab public, opposition has remained steadfast
Although support for the Israel-U.S. war in Iran among the Israeli public remains broad, that support has declined over the four weeks of fighting, data released over the weekend by the Israel Democracy Institute shows.
As of late March, 68 percent of Israelis say that they support the continuation of the Iran war, down from 81 percent at the outset of the operation on February 28, and the number who oppose continuing the war is growing.
The data released on Friday, a preview of the institute's March Voice Index to be released this week, comes from Israelis polled from March 22 to 26, and is contrasted with the institute's two previous polls, conducted by the institute's Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research from March 9 to 11 and March 2 to 3, respectively.
Among Jewish Israeli respondents, 78 percent said they "strongly" or "somewhat" support the continuation of the war, down from the 92.5 percent who said the same in the previous poll, and the 93 percent who gave the same answer at the outset of the operation. Just 50 percent said that they "strongly support" the war, down from 68 percent in mid-March and 74 percent at the beginning of the month.
'Our fate is in Trump’s hands': Haaretz Editor-in-Chief Aluf Benn on Israel’s ‘unprecedented’ wartime dependence on the U.S.
The share of Israeli Jews who say they "somewhat" or "strongly" oppose the war has more than doubled – from 4 percent in the previous two polls to 11.5 percent.
Among Israel's Arab public, opposition has remained steadfast: 70 percent of those polled said that they "somewhat" or "strongly" oppose the war, compared to 65.5 percent in mid-March and 60 percent at the beginning of the month.
Both Jewish and Arab respondents, though, seem to agree on the Iranian regime's ability to survive. When asked, "In your estimation, relative to the expectations of the Israeli and American planners of the operation, has Iran's resilience and fighting capability so far been," stronger or weaker, 56 percent of Jews and 51 percent of Arabs said that Iran was "much stronger" or "somewhat stronger" than anticipated.
Regarding the home front, Israelis are divided on how long the country can sustain the state of war. The largest share of Jewish respondents said that it can go on for up to one month in total – that is, by the end of March – with 35 percent.
The number is similar among the Arab public, with 33 percent. From here, the divide begins: 20 percent of Jewish Israelis say that the war can go on for one to three months and 6.5 percent for three to six months, but the second-largest share, 28 percent, said that the country can bear the burden of the war for "as long as it takes to achieve the goals of the operation."
For Arab respondents, the outlook is bleaker: 16 percent said that the country could shoulder one to three months of war, 8 percent said three to six months, and just five percent said that the home front could bear the burden for "as long as it takes."
The institute also polled Israelis on whether they believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's motivations for starting the war, along with the United States, were security-related and strategic or political and personal. Most Jewish respondents – 62 percent – said that Netanyahu was motivated by strategic and security concerns, while most Arab respondents, at 55 percent, believed his motivations to be personal.
The Israeli Voice Index was conducted online and by telephone between March 22 and 26, and surveyed 756 respondents aged 18 and over: 604 in Hebrew and 152 in Arabic, constituting a nationally representative sample. The maximum sampling error for the full sample is ±3.56 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. Fieldwork was conducted by the Shiluv I²R Institute.