- President Trump's threats to bomb civilian infrastructure and end Iran's "whole civilization"—which would constitute war crimes or worse—show how the use of force is actually undermining Trump's own stated political goals and protracting the conflict rather than hastening its end.
- Trump is pursuing a coercive and punitive strategy to try to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Coercive strategies in general rarely change a target state's behavior to a desired end, and strategic bombing in particular has a very poor record of success.
- Coercion implies some realizable demand—in Trump's case, to reopen the Strait. But given the existential danger Iran faces and the fact that its ability to disrupt the Strait is its main source of leverage, Tehran is unlikely to comply with Trump's demands even at the price of widespread death and destruction.
- Targeting civilian infrastructure like bridges and power plants will likely have little effect on Iran's military capabilities or operational capacity, but it will punish the civilian population. Targeting Iranian civilians—the very population Trump has repeatedly encouraged to rise up—will not weaken the regime. On the contrary, it is likely to rally the Iranian population around the government and create widespread hatred of the United States for decades to come.
- Trump's shifting focus from the destruction of Iran's military capabilities to punishment of its civilian population shows his growing desperation. While Trump has boasted about how much the U.S. and Israel have degraded Iran's military, this has clearly not prevented Iran from being able to disrupt traffic through the Strait and continue attacking U.S. bases and allies throughout the region.
- The war has demonstrated how military means do not automatically translate into political objectives, particularly when there is a huge difference in resolve between the two parties. The best chance of ending the war and reopening the Strait would be for the U.S. to implement a unilateral ceasefire, which would put pressure on Israel to do likewise and allow future room to negotiate with Tehran.
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