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The press is amplifying market-soothing Trump claims that he has cemented a ceasefire “deal” with Iran and is on a path to a resolution of the war. But there are serious differences between what Iran has said it has agreed to, which is a US capitulation. The only concession Iran appears to have made is to somewhat reduce its Strait of Hormuz transit fee. By contrast, Trump depicts the two week ceasefire as a pause in his threat to end Iran as a civilization over a four-hour period, contingent on Iran fully opening the Strait…to which Iran has not agreed.
In addition, the Iran terms call for all hostile action to end, including of Israel against Lebanon. But Israel was not a party to this (non-convergent) agreement and is making minimally complaint noises while also reaffirming its intent to continue ethnic cleansing in Lebanon.
Now this turn of events is admittedly a lot better than where we were 24 hours ago, which was Trump threatening a bombing campaign against Iran that would have produced Iranian retaliation across the Gulf State which was certain, whatever form it took, to damage energy-related infrastructure so severely as to reduce energy output for many many years, risking as many warned, a global deep depression and even potentially a large rollback of living standards across the globe. If nothing else, this seems to signal that Trump is on a path to a durable TACO, as in he really has decided that he needs to find the most face-saving exit he can muster. Perhaps the same way only Nixon could go to China, perhaps only Susie Wiles could produce this shift
But just as Ukraine has agency in ending the war with Russia, so to does Israel in this conflict. This not-really-an-agreement was done over Israel’s head. Israel like Ukraine has ample means to sabotage And that is before getting to the fact that Israel has never honored ceasefires it actually did agree to, save when it used one to make a short pause for its military to regroup before resuming fighting.
And even though the US has high cards to play, such as cutting off ISR support, it has not done that with Ukraine and appears even less likely to do so with Israel.
And we also do not know where the Gulf States stand on this development. The UAE, Kuwait and the Saudis has been on board with escalation, even by some accounts, egging Trump on.
And this view charitably assumes Trump really wants out, as opposed to is simply trying to buy time after the fiasco of what looks like a failed raid on Iran nuclear operations to figure out what to do next. Trump’s default is to try to keep options open and buy for time. He likely still thinks if he can contain paper oil prices and thus hopefully gas and diesel prices in the US, that he can keep pressure of various sorts on to open up anther path. He may not understand that anything less than going back to pretty close to the old normal levels of transit through the Strait of Hormuz very soon means compounding real economy damage. More but less than a high level of traffic would only reduce the rate of intensification of harm.
Now to the divergences of positions. The key section of the statement of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on the ceasefire:1
In this plan, America is fundamentally committed to guaranteeing non-aggression, the continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, the acceptance of enrichment, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, the termination of all resolutions of the Security Council and the Board of Governors, the payment of Iran’s damages, the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, and the cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon.
Understand that Iran has made no concessions whatsoever. Iran is still sticking to its guns of a US/Israel capitulation. It is not even offering a face-saving reduction in its transit fee:
We said from very early on that Iran would stop shooting at the US and Israel if they stopped shooting at Iran (which includes assassinations) but would not give up control over the Strait of Hormuz. That did not even require a discussion; this could have come about via what Professor John Mearsheimer likes to call a frozen conflict.
The at-least-sort-of-adult-looking official Administration statement differs in critical respects:
Later, the Supreme National Security Council states:
To this end, while rejecting all plans presented by the enemy, Iran drafted a 10-point plan and presented it to the American side via the country of Pakistan. It emphasized fundamental points such as controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iran’s armed forces (which grants Iran a unique economic and geopolitical position), the necessity of ending the war against all components of the Axis of Resistance (which signifies a historic defeat for the aggression of the child-killing Israeli regime), the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and deployment points in the region, the establishment of a secure transit protocol in the Strait of Hormuz such that it guarantees Iranian dominance according to the agreed protocol, the full payment of Iran’s damages according to estimates, the removal of all primary and secondary sanctions and resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, the release of all blocked Iranian properties and assets abroad, and finally, the approval of all these items in a binding Security Council resolution. It is worth noting that the approval of this resolution will turn all these agreements into binding international law and will create an important diplomatic victory for the nation of Iran.
This is simply na ga happen. Note “the release of all blocked Iranian properties and assets abroad.” Iran is (reasonably) asking for $100 billion in frozen assets back. It seems inconceivable that the US could swallow that, absent regime change.
From Larry Johnson’s hot take on the “ceasefire”:
If you think the war is over, think again. Iran has not agreed to a ceasefire. They have agreed to stop retaliating as long as Israel and the US stop their attacks. So that ball is in the West’s corner. Despite the White House claim that the Strait of Hormuz is now open for business, it is not. Iran will continue to allow ships on a case-by-case basis to enter and leave the Persian Gulf after paying a cover charge. Iran will split this money with Oman. If Iran charges a million dollars — payable in Chinese Yuan — they will earn an estimated $96 billion a year. That will rebuild a school or two….
It was the US, not Iran, that has pleaded for the last four weeks to restart negotiations. Unlike the previous two times, Iran harbors no illusions about the capacity of the US to engage in treachery and trickery. Iran is not going to soften its demands.
The Zionists are going crazy over this and Netanyahu and his government are in a state of panic. If JD Vance succeeds in securing a deal with Iran, it will likely mean no more support for Israel’s war machine. If Israel launches any new attacks on Iran in the coming two weeks, Iran will immediately retaliate.
The wild card in this is Hezbollah. If Israel continues to attack Lebanon and the Hezbollah positions in the south of Lebanon, Hezbollah will continue to wreak havoc on the Zionist forces.
I e-mailed Johnson, who concurred with this reading:
I am appalled by the MSM reporting.
Nothing changes with the Strait closed.
And the US will not follow its side of the deal as in withdraw troops. Until we see movement this really is hot air.
And we know
1. Israel has never complied with a ceasefire and I gather it was not party to this deal
2. The US has been unable to constrain Ukraine and I doubt the US would do to Israel what is has failed to do to Ukraine, which is cut off sigint and targeting support
3. As you alluded, Iran will find it unacceptable that Israel is still trying to clear Southern Lebanon
I think it is not impossible (odds not high, maybe 10%, which is high given these givens) that Israel will again attempt to assassinate the negotiators…..which could even include Vance.
A few wags have also weighed in:
It will be revealing to see what Lloyds List, says, in that the publication reflect not just what insurers but also ship operators think. That will give an initial reading as to whether an apparent reduction in temperature in the Gulf will result in vessel owners being more willing to send cargoes through the Gulf (perceived physical risk was the biggest barrier) and whether insurers somewhat lower their war risk premiums (another obstacle). This story literally launched 43 seconds after I typed the immediately forgoing text, Shipowners and charterers prepare to move after US and Iran agree ceasefire:
• Several shipowners are planning swift exits from the Middle East Gulf in the wake of a two-week ceasefire
• Industry security officials warn that moving before new protocols are clarified could expose crews, ships and cargoes to heightened risk
• Despite political announcements promising safe passage, Iran’s controls over Hormuz traffic — including documentation checks, pre‑approvals and IRGC‑escorted transits — is causing industry hesitation and delaying immediate movementA temporary US-Iran ceasefire has prompted shipowners to prepare rapid departures from the Middle East Gulf, where more than 800 vessels have been stranded since late February, but key terms of the truce and transit protocols remain unclear
Shipowners with vessels that have been stuck inside the Middle East Gulf since the Iran conflict began on February 28 are preparing for a swift exit following a US-Iran ceasefire that promises to temporarily unblock the Strait of Hormuz.
More than 800 ships are currently stuck inside the MEG, but shipowners and charterers with ships inside have confirmed to Lloyd’s List that preparations were being made on Wednesday morning to start moving their ships.
The immediate priority will be to move laden tankers out, however one charterer confirmed that they were already looking to price in ballast voyages following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday.
Key details remain uncertain: Iran says it has agreed to two weeks of safe passage in coordination with its armed forces and within “technical limitations”, while US President Donald Trump announced a “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING”.
It is also unclear if the two have settled on transit payments, or when the truce takes effect.
Sp the priority is getting the 800 stuck ships out, with service-providers positioning themselves to take advantage of any inbound traffic. One has to think the latter depends on how well the departures go. And it would likely be easy for Israel to throw a spanner, if it has the reach, by lobbing some drones.
____
1 From Middle East Eye:
The enemy, in its cowardly, illegal, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historical, and crushing defeat. By the grace of the pure and holy blood of the Martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution, His Eminence Grand Ayatollah Imam Khamenei (Peace be upon him), the prudent measures of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and Commander-in-Chief, His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei (May God protect him), and the struggle and bravery of the warriors of Islam on the fronts—especially the historical, lasting, and heroic presence of you, the dear nation, on the scene since the very first days of the war—Iran has achieved a massive victory and forced criminal America to accept its 10-point plan.
In this plan, America is fundamentally committed to guaranteeing non-aggression, the continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, the acceptance of enrichment, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, the termination of all resolutions of the Security Council and the Board of Governors, the payment of Iran’s damages, the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, and the cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon.
We congratulate all the people of Iran on this victory and emphasise that until the details of this victory are finalised, there remains a need for the steadfastness and prudence of officials and the maintenance of unity and solidarity among the Iranian people.
Islamic Iran, along with the brave mujahideen of the Resistance in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and occupied Palestine, has dealt blows to the enemy over the past 40 days that the global historical memory will never forget. Iran and the Axis of Resistance, as representatives of honour and humanity against the most savage enemies of mankind, have given them an unforgettable lesson after a historical battle.
They have so crushed their forces, facilities, infrastructure, and all their political, economic, technological, and military assets that the enemy is now plunged into collapse and desperation, seeing no path before it other than surrender to the will of the great nation of Iran and the honourable Axis of Resistance.
On the first day, when the criminal enemies of Iran began this oppressive war, they imagined they would succeed in complete military dominance over Iran in a short time and force Iran to surrender by creating political and social instability. They thought Iran’s missile and drone fire would be quickly extinguished and did not believe that Iran could deliver such a powerful response beyond its borders and across the entire region.
Global evil Zionism had convinced the ignorant President of America that this war would finish Iran, allowing them—after removing this last bastion of humanity and mankind—to comfortably commit any crime against anyone they wished from then on. They dreamed of partitioning dear Iran, plundering its oil and wealth, and ultimately leaving Iranians immersed in chaos, instability, and insecurity for many long years.
The brave warriors of Islam and their courageous allies in the Axis of Resistance, despite their hearts being wounded and torn by the martyrdom of their Imam, decided—relying on Almighty God and following the Lord and Master of Martyrs—to give these enemies a historical lesson once and for all. They chose to take revenge for all previous crimes and create conditions where the enemy would forever cast away the thought of aggression against dear Iran, fully tasting the flavour of humiliation and abasement before the great nation of Iran.
With this strategy and relying on the unprecedented political and social unity established within the country, Iran and the Resistance initiated one of the heaviest hybrid battles in history against America and the Zionist regime, achieving all the objectives designed for this conflict during this period.
Iran and the Resistance almost completely destroyed the American military machine in the region; they dealt crushing and profound blows to the vast infrastructure and facilities that the enemy had built and stationed around the region over the years for this war against Iran. In regional dimensions, they imposed extensive casualties on the criminal American army, and within the occupied territories, they delivered heavy and shattering blows to the enemy’s forces, infrastructure, facilities, and assets.
They so constrained the field on all fronts that not only were none of the enemy’s main objectives realised, but the enemy realised approximately 10 days after the start of the war that it would in no way have the capability to win this war. For this reason, it began attempting to establish contact with Iran and requesting a ceasefire through various channels and methods.
The honourable nation of Iran must know that, by the grace of their children’s struggle and their historic presence on the scene, the enemy has been pleading for over a month for the cessation of the fierce fire of Iran and the Resistance. However, the country’s officials—because it had been decided from the very beginning that the war would continue until objectives were achieved, including the enemy’s regret and desperation and the removal of long-term threats from the country—gave a negative response to all these requests, and the war continued until today, which is the fortieth day.
Furthermore, Iran has so far rejected several deadlines presented by the President of the United States and continues to emphasise that it grants no importance to any type of deadline from the enemy.
We now give tidings to the great nation of Iran that almost all war objectives have been realized and your brave children have driven the enemy to a historic helplessness and a lasting defeat. Iran’s historic decision, backed by the unified support of the entire nation, is to continue this battle for as long as necessary until its massive achievements are consolidated and new security and political equations are created in the region based on the acceptance of the power and sovereignty of Iran and the Resistance.
In this regard, and according to the prudence of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei (May God protect him), and the approval of the Supreme National Security Council—and considering Iran and the Resistance’s upper hand in the battlefield, the enemy’s inability to carry out its threats despite all claims, and the formal acceptance of all the rightful demands of the Iranian people—it was decided that negotiations be held in Islamabad to finalise the details. This is so that within a maximum of 15 days, with the finalisation of details, Iran’s victory on the field shall also be consolidated in political negotiations.
To this end, while rejecting all plans presented by the enemy, Iran drafted a 10-point plan and presented it to the American side via the country of Pakistan. It emphasized fundamental points such as controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iran’s armed forces (which grants Iran a unique economic and geopolitical position), the necessity of ending the war against all components of the Axis of Resistance (which signifies a historic defeat for the aggression of the child-killing Israeli regime), the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and deployment points in the region, the establishment of a secure transit protocol in the Strait of Hormuz such that it guarantees Iranian dominance according to the agreed protocol, the full payment of Iran’s damages according to estimates, the removal of all primary and secondary sanctions and resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, the release of all blocked Iranian properties and assets abroad, and finally, the approval of all these items in a binding Security Council resolution. It is worth noting that the approval of this resolution will turn all these agreements into binding international law and will create an important diplomatic victory for the nation of Iran.
Now, the honourable Prime Minister of Pakistan has informed Iran that the American side, despite all outward threats, has accepted these principles as the basis for negotiations and has surrendered to the will of the Iranian nation. Accordingly, at the highest level, it has been decided that Iran will engage in negotiations in Islamabad with the American side for a period of two weeks, based solely on these principles. It is emphasised that this does not mean the end of the war; Iran will only accept the termination of the war once the details—given the acceptance of Iran’s preferred principles in the 10-point plan—are finalised in the negotiations.
These negotiations will begin in Islamabad on Friday, April 10 (21 Farvardin), with complete distrust of the American side, and Iran will allocate two weeks for these talks. This timeframe is extendable by mutual agreement. It is essential that during this period, complete national unity be maintained and victory celebrations continue with strength.
The current negotiations are national negotiations and a continuation of the battlefield; it is necessary for all people, elites, and political groups to trust and support this process, which is under the supervision of the Leader of the Revolution and the highest levels of the system, and to strictly avoid any divisive comments.
If the enemy’s surrender on the battlefield is transformed into a decisive political achievement in the negotiations, we will celebrate this massive historical victory together; otherwise, we will fight side-by-side on the battlefield until all the demands of the Iranian nation are met. Our hands are on the trigger, and the moment the slightest error is committed by the enemy, it will be responded to with full power.