To Ceasefire or Not Ceasefire, That is the Question
The only way that there will be a ceasefire in the Israeli/US war against Iran depends on whether or not the US can force Israel to stop its attacks in Lebanon. Iran, despite Trump’s insistent denial, made it clear to the United States and the Pakistani intermediaries that attacks on Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq must cease immediately, otherwise Iran will not attend the talks scheduled for Saturday, 11 April. This ain’t complicated.
Trump, his administration, and most of the Western media continue to mischaracterize Iran’s 10-points for negotiating a ceasefire. Here again are those 10-points:
U.S. commitment to non-aggression — A formal guarantee that the United States (and Israel) will not launch further attacks on Iran, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz — Iran retains sovereignty and primary coordination of maritime traffic through the strait, with a “regulated” or “secure transit protocol” for safe passage of ships.
Acceptance of Iran’s nuclear enrichment rights — Explicit US and international recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for its civilian nuclear program.
Lifting of all primary U.S. sanctions on Iran — Removal of direct bilateral economic sanctions imposed by the United States.
Lifting of all secondary sanctions — Elimination of sanctions on third countries and entities that do business with Iran.
Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran — Cancellation of existing UNSC sanctions and resolutions targeting Iran.
Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran — End to International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions and oversight measures related to Iran’s nuclear program.
Payment of compensation / war reparations to Iran — Financial compensation or reconstruction aid for damages caused by the US-Israeli military campaign.
Release of all frozen Iranian assets — Unfreezing of Iranian funds and assets held abroad (including those in US or European banks).
US military withdrawal from the Middle East (and end to attacks on Iran’s allies) — Withdrawal of US combat forces from regional bases, plus a ceasefire extending to Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” allies (including halting Israeli operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, and ending hostilities in other regional fronts).
These points are NOT, I repeat NOT, up for discussion. That is Iran’s firm position. An Iranian Telegram channel reports:
Iran said the reports of the country’s delegation arriving in Islamabad are false, and that until the United States fulfills its commitments regarding Lebanon, the negotiations are suspended.
If the US and Israel continue to insist that the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon, Iran will not show up for the scheduled Saturday negotiations set to take place in Islamabad.
The driving force behind the Trump administration’s desperate requests to get negotiations going with Iran is Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. There is no viable military plan or operation that could secure freedom of navigation in the Strait. Why? As long as Iran can fire one missile or drone at a ship trying to pass through the Strait, the insurance rates for those ships will remain exorbitant. While it is theoretically possible to eventually destroy Iran’s ability to launch torpedoes, maritime drones, airborne drones, rockets and missiles, the cost in terms of manpower and lost equipment would be astronomical and could potentially take years… Yes, you read that right.
I do not think Iran anticipated the global economic effects that its closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have on supply chains and global inflation. However, Iran now fully grasps that it is in a unique position to free Iran from 46 years of sanctions and rebuild its own economy by exercising full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. This is the game changer and will be Trump’s obsession in the coming months… trying to wrest control of the Strait from Iran.