- In its talks with Iran, the United States is attempting to negotiate a deal resembling a more demanding version of the JCPOA nuclear agreement—which Trump pulled out of in 2018, leading to the current war—but with less leverage and diplomatic credibility than Washington had in 2015. As long as Iran can disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, it "holds the cards," to use a phrase of President Trump.
- While a deal that finally resolves the nuclear issue would be good, it's not necessary for the United States. The only important U.S. interest in the Middle East is maintaining the flow of oil from the Gulf to stabilize global oil prices. To the debatable extent Iran actually wants nuclear weapons, it is to deter American and Israeli aggression.
- By virtue of its geography and the ease of threatening ships passing through the narrow chokepoint with missiles, drones, and mines, Iran will effectively control the strait indefinitely, whether or not it chooses to let shipping pass unmolested. If Iran wants to charge a toll on tankers through the Strait, there's not a lot the U.S. can do to stop them—short of sending millions of troops to permanently occupy a country four times larger than Iraq.
- This outcome, while an affront to freedom of navigation and far from ideal, is preferable to ongoing war, since it will add only a small amount to oil prices while solving the supply problem now bedeviling the global economy—it will even give Iran a strong incentive to have as much shipping going through their toll as possible.
- The "blockade of a blockade" strategy cooked up by the Trump administration will not work. Further disruption to Gulf oil supplies will only exacerbate the energy crisis currently facing the United States and its allies. While Washington is betting that Iran will suffer from lost revenues, the Iranians have far more resolve than the U.S. because the war is existential for them.
- The United States should trim its ambitions and offer Iran sanctions relief to open the strait rather than demanding a surrender on its nuclear enrichment capability, missiles, or proxies—especially after demonstrating how badly Iran needs deterrent capability. It remains a much better outcome to live with a toll than be in a state of perpetual and futile war with Iran.
- Since the United States' military presence in the region has proven to be the main destabilizer, rather than the guarantor, of oil flows from the Gulf, it has lost any remaining justification for a permanent military presence in the region. It should pack up its troops and bases and leave the Middle East for good.
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