As U.S. Nears Iran Deal, Israel Pushes on Toward a Familiar Dead End in Lebanon
U.S.-Iran talks are expected to resume in the coming days in Islamabad, with a framework agreement to end the war now on the agenda.
Contrary to the impression left by last week's first round of talks, the negotiations were not a total failure. Even on a symbolic level, the very presence of Iranian officials sitting in the same room with U.S. Vice President JD Vance constitutes a precedent that the Iranian regime has never agreed to before.
The two sides are discussing extending the cease-fire beyond the agreed date of April 21 to allow negotiations to move forward. U.S. President Donald Trump said in a TV interview that he estimates the war is close to its end and that the talks would end with an agreement. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to send additional forces to the Persian Gulf.
In other words, another 24 hours have passed in the typical Trump manner, marked by contradictory messages and assessments that aren't anchored in reality. And yet, it seems that the administration in Washington is trying to create the impression that the war is nearing its end.
Haaretz daily briefing: News & analysis
In the Gulf, more than two days have passed since Trump declared a naval blockade meant to block the movement of Iranian vessels southward, to counter the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. So far, neither side has attempted to break through the blockade by force. The Iranians, despite threats they have issued, have not tried to hit American vessels through the use of smaller armaments such as drones, speedboats laden with explosives or mines. This may indicate that the two sides are leaving room for negotiations. As long as the U.S. blockade continues, Iran - whose economy is already in deep crisis - stands to suffer more.
Trump's hesitation about expanding the military campaign is evident. Presented with the chance to escalate several times, he chose each time to return to talks rather than carry out his threats.
A question mark hovers over Iran's intentions. The regime has survived the blows it received, despite Israel's elimination of most of its leadership at the beginning of the war. Will this fact cause the current leadership to continue insisting on its demands, regardless of the enormous price Tehran may yet pay?
Israel's concerns are clear: If Trump decides to reach an agreement with Iran, he may compromise on demands that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considers critical. If an agreement is reached, the Iranian regime, which Netanyahu was hoping to topple during the war, may benefit from a renewed flow of funds. First will be the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian funds held in Qatari banks, followed by the lifting of sanctions imposed on Tehran for its violations of commitments under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Playing for time
On Wednesday morning, the Israel Defense Forces issued another warning to residents of southern Lebanon, telling them they must continue moving northwards to save their lives, not just to the Litani River, but beyond it, past the Zahrani River to its north. So far, the IDF has taken positions 8-10 kilometers (5-6 miles) north of the border with Lebanon. This is ostensibly a sign that the IDF means to continue moving.
Despite the deployment of numerous brigades for a ground maneuver in Lebanon, progress is slow. The IDF is trying to avoid sustaining further casualties. Although the cease-fire with Iran made the air force more available for strikes in Lebanon, the fighting is now conducted under restrictions imposed by the Americans. After a massive aerial bombardment across Lebanon last week, in which 350 people were killed, it's obvious that the U.S. has reined Israel in, demanding that it focus most of its offensive operations in southern Lebanon.
On Wednesday, Iranian sources claimed that a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah would take effect that night, as part of an effort to neutralize the secondary fronts of the war ahead of a possible deal between Iran and the U.S. Israeli diplomatic sources confirmed that the U.S. had asked Israel to examine the possibility of a temporary cease-fire. The security cabinet discussed the issue on Wednesday night.
The common denominator of these reports is a game of buying time, and we are in its final stages. Israel is waiting for a possible final whistle by the Americans that would signal the end of the war in Lebanon, and possibly Iran. In the meantime, Israel is trying to make gains on the ground, while its ambassador is in direct negotiations with Lebanon in Washington. The party interested in a Lebanese cease-fire is Iran, which is looking to limit the damage inflicted on Hezbollah, while at the same time trying to prevent a deal that would coerce Hezbollah into disarming north of the Litani River.
The Battle of Bint Jbeil
In the areas of Lebanon it currently occupies, the IDF has been busy with an assault on the town of Bint Jbeil, in the western sector of southern Lebanon. A pocket of resistance remains there, containing several dozen Hezbollah fighters. The IDF is putting great effort into besieging these fighters to capture or kill them, a fight loaded with symbolism due to its historical background.
In May 2000, Hassan Nasrallah, then-secretary general of Hezbollah, gave his famous speech there, in which he called Israel as weak as cobwebs, right after Israel had withdrawn from Lebanon.
Israel's obsession with the town continued in 2006 during the Second Lebanon War, when the IDF tried to capture the compound where Nasrallah gave his speech. Soldiers were hurt in an operation in which their commanders insisted on raising the Israeli flag close and creating a "historic" photo. There was even an idea that then-Defense Minister Amir Peretz would give a victory speech in the town.
That war ended, as we know, with a disappointing draw, without victory speeches. But bad ideas never sink into oblivion – they only wait for the next war. On Wednesday, in an article in Yedioth Ahronoth, Guy Ezra proposed marking Israel's victory over Hezbollah with a victory speech by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir in Bint Jbeil. That would be, Ezra believed, a dramatic closing of a circle signaling the beginning of a new era.
I asked Col. (res.) Hanoch Daube about his opinion on this matter. In 2006, as a tank company commander, he was seriously wounded while evacuating wounded soldiers from Bint Jbeil, and he later received a medal for bravery. According to Daube, "Bint Jbeil is not just a place. It's a memory, a symbol, a black hole we get sucked into time and again. In military doctrine, in wars against armies, there is value in hitting symbols, which break the enemy's cohesion and confidence.
But using such logic on Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah isn't a strategy: It's an illusion, one that always ends the same way, with dead soldiers who died following reckless and irresponsible decisions by politicians, with commanders wanting to please politicians instead of insisting on what they think."