(Dobbs) Iran Is In the Driver’s Seat, Not the United StatesBy the time you read this, everything might have changed. Again.
Why should we trust him? How can we trust him? Donald Trump, pivoting between Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, alternates between high hopes and dark dreams. Sometimes his assurance is that a deal is close enough to taste it. Just on Friday, he told Axios, “There is a good chance” of a deal to end the war “in a day or two.” Other times his alternative to a deal is what he wrote yesterday on his website: “I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” But how many times has he threatened that? Three weeks ago, when there was talk of a ceasefire, his warning was, “We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!” Two weeks ago, if Iran didn’t agree to open the strait, “A whole civilization will die tonight.” Sometimes, as they say, if you play a game of darts long enough and keep throwing them at a dartboard, eventually you’ll score a bullseye. But that’s hardly a sane way to play a game of war and peace. What’s more, in this eyeball-to-eyeball battle with Iran, it’s not working. Right now, Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, which means to an extent, Iran controls the global economy. No matter how much damage the U.S. has done to the leadership of the Islamic Republic and to its military and its infrastructure, no matter that the death toll in Iran since the war started has surpassed 3,000, it still has missiles and drones, it still has control of its enriched uranium, and it still has the strait. Iran is in the driver’s seat, not the United States. It’s feeling confident enough in its position that one of the latest statements from its semi-official news agency looks, if you just substitute “Iran” for “the United States,” like it could have come right out of the White House: “As long as the United States does not agree to the complete freedom of navigation for vessels .... the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will remain tightly controlled and in its previous state.” Iran has even mimicked the high-tech White House propaganda machine, mocking the president with Lego figures in short videos created by AI about the Strait of Hormuz. Now, that’s where the fight is focused. The strait was open before the war, then it was blocked by Iran, then for a few hours on Friday it was open again by mutual agreement, until hours later it was blocked again. The U.S. had not lifted its blockade of Iranian ships, turning back almost two dozen trying to pass through. Despite the ten day old ceasefire, Iran considers that an act of war. Then this weekend that battle took a new twist. First, Iran’s military fired on two foreign ships evidently trying to escape. At least one was hit. Within hours, the U.S. Navy didn’t just turn another Iranian ship, a container ship, back, it fired on it when it wouldn’t stop, putting a hole in its engine room. Then Marines boarded from a destroyer and seized it. Iran responded, “We warn that the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon respond to and retaliate against this U.S. armed piracy.” If Iran saw the mere fact of a blockade as an act of war, this takes it to an even more dangerous level. None of this bodes well for a successful second round of high-level negotiations this week in Pakistan. Share As I write this, late on Sunday night, it’s not certain that the strait is open or closed, it’s not certain that shooting hasn’t broken out again, it’s not even certain that a high-level American negotiating team will get as far as face-to-face meetings Tuesday with high-level negotiators from Iran. And finally, it’s not even certain that Iran will come to Pakistan. Its state news agency said yesterday that for now, Tehran rejects more talks. The last word we’ve heard on any of this might not matter though, because by the time you read this, all of it might have changed. Again. It depends on what we hear next from the president of the United States: high hopes or dark dreams. Leave a comment © 2026 Greg Dobbs |