Shortly before President Trump's announcement to extend the ceasefire with Iran, traders executed a significant $430 million bet on falling oil prices in the crude oil market. This marks the third instance this month where substantial directional bets have emerged right before major announcements related to the Iran conflict, totaling approximately $2.1 billion since April. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group indicated that between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT, 4,260 sell orders were placed, amounting to $430 million based on Brent crude futures prices. Following Trump's announcement, oil prices initially dipped from $100.91 to a low of $96.83, before stabilizing around $99.20.
This pattern of precise betting has been observed multiple times, including a $500 million bet just before Trump delayed strikes on Iranian power facilities on March 23, and a $950 million bearish bet hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on April 7. Investigations are reportedly underway regarding these trades, particularly those executed just before significant policy shifts regarding Iran.