Green-Energy European Countries to Save $10 bn in Hormuz Price Shock
Juan Cole 04/24/2026
Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – The blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, first by Iran and now by Donald Trump have implications for two fossil fuels, petroleum and fossil gas. Some 20% of the world’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) comes out of the Strait on tankers from Qatar. Qatar has now closed down production, since its ships cannot transit Hormuz and it has no way to store the gas.
Qatar supplies about 8% of Europe’s LNG imports. For Italy, it is 30%. Because gas prices are tied to the spot market, this supply crunch will put up European gas costs, affecting heating and electricity bills.
If the crisis goes on, the fossil gas and gasoline / diesel costs could cost Europe $100 billion. They should send the bill to Trump and Netanyahu.
The Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates, however, that the five most advanced green-electricity countries in Europe — Denmark, Finland, France, Sweden and Slovakia — will save nearly $10 billion during this crisis compared to dirty-electricity states such as Poland, Italy, Greece, Estonia, the Netherlands. The green-electricity countries will have 58% great cost savings than their dirtier cousins.
Some 99% of Sweden’s electricity comes from low-carbon sources, so it is teflon during this crisis.
Because of large solar installations and other low-carbon sources in 2025, Portugal and Spain saw their sensitivity to gas price shocks cut in half. So did France, but it has a lot of nuclear plants for electricity.
Spain put in nearly 9 gigawatts of new solar in 2025, bringing its total to 50 GW. That’s a hell of a cushion against high fossil gas prices, given that Spain also has substantial numbers of wind turbines, nuclear plants, and hydroelectric power. Compared to Italy, Spain can take the punishment of the loss of Qatari gas to Europe much more easily.
France put in nearly 6 gigawatts of new solar in 2025, bringing its total to 30 gigawatts.
Overall, the European Union is confident that the fossil gas crisis can be dealt with without too much pain. It has come in the spring, which is much better than if the war had broken out in late fall going into winter. Because of the Ukraine War, many European countries have fossil gas reserves to tide them over.
Image by Adolfo Cj from Pixabay
It seems clear, however, that there will be a severe economic cost to countries such as Italy, Poland and Greece because they have been slow to embrace solar. Greek leaders in particular should have their heads examined for relying on fossil gas when they have such plentiful sunshine and the potential for agrovoltaics and offshore wind and solar.
My guess is that while Europe will weather the fossil gas shortage caused by the shut-down of Qatari production, the gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel crises in some countries will be more severe. In fact, thousands of flights this summer are already being cancelled by European airlines for fear of not just high jet fuel prices but of an absolute lack of fuel in the market.