I hope this post will not be unduly scattered or incomplete, and hope that readers will step up to fill in any gaps or address ambiguities. I have been not as deep into new news flow as I normally am due to having a big plate of real world matters to address.
But this conflict is also in a bizarre phase. The combination of Trump’s worsening white matter disease plus key members of his team doubling down on the one activity in which they are somewhat competent, propaganda, has resulted in them even more losing the plot in what matters: minimizing the cost to the US of backing out of this massive exercise in self harm.
Now admittedly, it’s likely that the reduction in kinetic action by both the US and Iran to verbal and some actual skirmishes over vessels moving in and out of the Strait of Hormuz and beyond is merely a placeholder as the US and Israel ready forces to Do Something. But what?
The momentary TACO after another episode of Trump threatening devastation if Iran did not bend to his will, here showing up in Islamabad to capitulate, has been greeted with undue relief. Yes, Trump has not walked over the ledge of damaging Iranian infrastructure in a way that leads Iran to wreck oil production across the Middle East, which in short order would end what passes for modern civilization. But as many many many commentators have discussed, Trump has no viable military options. The US is critically low on key weapons. We’ve posted details from studies with in-depth figures on US and Israel stocks which showed some key categories set to be disastrously depleted in short order. More analyses reinforce that conclusion:
And remember, it’s not just defensive weapons but also precision offensive missiles. And those matter a lot because, contrary to PR, the US has been cautious about flying planes into Iran and so is relying heavily on what are called standoff weapons, as opposed to much lower tech gravity bombs.
Its navy is too small and also has the wrong mix of ships to bust a blockade or run convoys….and even if successful, convoys would not restore transit levels to the old normal. The deadly strangulation of essential inputs would continue, just at a slower rate.
Simplicius focuses on naval (un)readiness in his new post, US Secretary of Navy Resigns (Or Is Fired) Just as Third Carrier Group Arrives In Iran Theater. I am going to skip over his discussion of the ouster of Navy Secretary John Phelan, which Nat discussed in detail yesterday. IMHO, this show of Hegseth’s pique falls mainly into the “I can’t even” category,” save for confirming rank-and-file concerns that there are no adults in charge. Key bits:
In fact, it appears the US Navy is growing quite concerned, given the latest testimony from the head of IndoPacom Admiral Samuel Paparo this week….
It says it could take up to six years for the US to replenish the spent munitions, and that’s if US doesn’t squander another major portion of them, which it may very well do if Trump resumes military actions as many now predict he will.
At the same time, estimates regarding Iran’s remaining military capabilities continue gradually sliding upward, as predicted. Trump had claimed Iran’s airforce was “completely destroyed”, but CBS now reports that “two-thirds of Iran’s air force is still believed to be operational”..\
Amongst his statements:
Adm. Paparo said: “I don’t have enough amphibious ships. We don’t have enough surface destroyers. We certainly don’t have enough attack submarines, and our trajectory is on the wrong side.”
WSJ now reports that the Iran war has snuffed out hopes of US standing any chance in helping Taiwan during a hypothetical Chinese intervention….
It says it could take up to six years for the US to replenish the spent munitions, and that’s if US doesn’t squander another major portion of them, which it may very well do if Trump resumes military actions as many now predict he will.
At the same time, estimates regarding Iran’s remaining military capabilities continue gradually sliding upward, as predicted. Trump had claimed Iran’s airforce was “completely destroyed”, but CBS now reports that “two-thirds of Iran’s air force is still believed to be operational”:…
The real number is much higher, as the US has not attrited anything more than old wrecked airframes that were being used for spare parts, while the real planes were moved into underground and other hardened storages east of the country, or simply used Ukraine’s tactic of lofting during cruise missile strikes on airbases then setting back down afterwards.
The US is pursuing worthy targets or alternatively, ones it thought it could master:
More from Simplicius:
As of this writing the USS Bush carrier group is said to have arrived in the region:
Recall this is the carrier that was forced to trail its rust around the southern cape of Africa because it was too terrified of being converted to a bathysphere by the Houthis of Bab al-Mandab…
Many believe that once USS Bush arrives, Trump will be primed to unleash another round of futile strikes. It’s obvious that Trump is still desperate for an off-ramp and the only way he’d launch another major attack is to get out of dodge with a cheap bit of “victory” theater: “See, now we’ve OBLITERATED all their power plants and have decisively won the war, now we’re going home!”
Now Trump and Israel may hope for a more successfully executed stunt, to achieve the sort of splashy success sought in the botched and very costly attempt to seize Iran’s enriched uranium. That resulted in the biggest loss of aircraft in a single incident since the Vietnam War. Maybe the US somehow fights its way into one of Iran’s (very many) underground missile cities, takes selfies, and blows it up on the way out? But even if the US scores a son-of-Caracas special forces show of prowess, anything that does not get the Strait open is just more noise before the defeat.
Some also believe that after rumors of the military defying Trump seeking to ready a nuclear strike…
…that Trump has gotten religion:
Given that Trump is fabulously mercurial, I take his statement above as mood of the day. However, a possible tell that tactical nukes are not being considered now is the very large (by current US standards) number of soldiers being moved into theaters. Readying that much conventional force seems at odds with a nuclear deployment.
I can’t prove it, but I sense that Trump and his team have retreated so far into their narrative bubble, where they are enjoying considerable success, that they are dangerously out of touch with real stakes and real events. Trump has managed to make this TACO look like something other than a failure in mainstream media accounts. Yet more paralysis is not neutral for the US. It is a loss. As we have harped on repeatedly, the damage from supply shortfalls compounds with their duration. And as Professor Mohammed Marandi has pointed out, the Gulf is just about to enter its very hot period, making ground operations impossibly difficult.
For instance, for some time, Trump has been ringing the changes of the claim that no one is in charge in Iran because he wiped them out. This also serves as an excuse for why negotiations have failed: the US cannot find the new person in authority to whom to talk. The variant du jour:
Iran is having a hard time figuring out who their leader is! The infighting is between the “Hardliners,” who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the “Moderates,” who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY!
Weirdly, this patter seems to have gotten under the skin of Iran-sympathetic independent commentators. In the last day or so, both Mohammed Marandi and Alastair Crooke were quizzed at some length about Iran authority structures and how they were coming up with negotiating positions. Again, forgive me for not running it down, but some suggested that this line of talk was a psyop directed at Iran.
NO NO NO! That could be a side bennie in the unlikely event that anyone in Iran fell for it.
The real main object is investors, which includes higher-end retail (as in PMC) and pundits and media outlets they trust. The super elevated stock market and bizarre complacency in paper oil prices are based on the false premises that 1. The war will end pretty soon and the shipments thought the Strait will move as quickly as practicable to old normal levels and 2. Supply shocks will be on the order of Covid, as in short term, so that any swoon would be yet another buying opportunity.
So [talk of] Iran being fractured at the top = government weakness = Iran concessions = war over soon = we get richer faster!
Similarly, ceasefire in most inattentive or constitutionally bullish investors’ minds is tantamount to an end to war. Pop the champagne corks! This is why Trump fixates on them. The bar to achieving them is not insurmountable, and they produce wonderfully big Pavlovian response from Mr. Market.
As disgraceful is the appalling way the financial press has been shamelessly skweing its coverage to the most optimistic take possible. For instance, almost without exception when Trump Makes Up New Shit, usually of the “Iran agreed to X” sort, Bloomberg will immediately give it a banner headline. When Iran issues a formal denial, which has not just been reported on say Fars or an official Twitter account but also on Aljazeera, Bloomberg will keep up the old Trump/market positive spin up in its banner headline and will delay reporting the Iran downer for hours.
So as not to enable Trump manipulation, I am skipping over the three week ceasefire Trump announced between Israel and Lebanon. As those who pay attention know, Israel does not adhere to them unless it wants a wee break to rest and refit. And in keeping:
Forgive me for a short entry, but yours truly hit a jet lag air pocket plus there actually is not a huge amount of new news on this beat.