Why Iran war is the surest sign that the US is in decline
In going from international rule-maker to ‘predatory hegemon’, the US is risking it all, Chinese state media and observers warn
Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily issued a sharp critique on Thursday, warning that the United States’ shift from an “international rule-builder” to a “predatory hegemon” would ultimately undermine its prosperity and influence.
“In the post-Cold War era, while the undercurrents of US hegemony were always present, Washington at least maintained on the surface the image of a ‘responsible actor’: sustaining alliances, providing some international public goods, and leading the creation and enforcement of global rules,” the commentary read.
“Today, that facade has rapidly fallen away. America has devolved entirely into a ‘rule-breaker’ and ‘cooperation saboteur’, now relying on the naked ‘law of the jungle’ to maintain its dominance.”
The article was attributed to Zhong Sheng – a homonym in Chinese for “the voice of China” and a pseudonym often used to voice Beijing’s position on global affairs.
Several Chinese analysts have expressed similar views, arguing that Washington’s reckless behaviour has alienated allies, weakened its credibility and eroded US influence on the global stage.
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The term “predatory hegemon” was first used by Stephen Walt, a professor of international affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School, weeks before the latest US strikes on Iran began.
In a February 3 article for Foreign Affairs, Walt accused Washington of exploiting its global dominance to force both friends and enemies into granting economic concessions and paying tribute – a strategy with a relentless focus on extractive, one-sided and short-term gains.
“It is ill-suited for a world of several competing great powers – especially one in which China is an economic and military peer – because multipolarity gives other states ways to reduce their dependence on the US,” Walt wrote.
Washington’s foreign policy since Donald Trump’s return as president last year has drawn unprecedented global scrutiny, fuelled by a series of unexpected and aggressive moves.
These include pressuring the Panamanian government – leveraging private investment firms – to forcibly curtail Chinese interests and restore American dominance, as well as capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife in January to face narcoterrorism charges in the US.
Analysts in China cited key signs of US decline in their view: the refusal of key Nato allies to back the Iran attacks, US forces’ battlefield struggles against Iran, and the escalating costs back home – as repeated blockades of the strait send energy prices soaring and fuel public discontent.
Chen Wenxin, director of the Institute of American Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, wrote last week that the military campaign in Iran was aimed at securing US control over critical strategic resources and corridors while bolstering its petrodollar dominance, but that aim had faltered.
Gulf nations [are collectively asking] a chilling question: Is dependence on US security a shield of protection or a death warrant?
“Seeking to achieve maximum gains at minimal cost, Washington initiated the war to secure control over strategic resources and vital trade routes, aiming to reap greater economic benefits,” Chen wrote in Qiushi, the party’s top theoretical journal.
“However, the conflict ultimately strained the US alliance system and undermined its credibility as a dominant power.”
Gui Chuping, an international affairs commentator, echoed that analysis, cautioning that the Iran offensive was likely to test the unity of US-led alliances.
“The US security guarantee to its Gulf allies has collapsed into empty rhetoric. American military bases, once viewed as an ‘ironclad security umbrella’, have instead become primary targets for enemy retaliation,” Chu wrote in an article published by Shanghai-based outlet The Paper on Tuesday.
“This has forced Gulf nations to collectively ask a chilling question: ‘Is dependence on US security a shield of protection or a death warrant?’”
Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran lacked democratic oversight, exposing systemic dysfunction and further alienating the American public, Chu added.
Zhang Jiajun, an associate professor at the University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warned that Washington’s superpower status was at stake.
In an article for the April issue of Qian Xian, a monthly journal run by the party’s Beijing municipal committee, Zhang said: “Endlessly bullying smaller nations and engaging in economic plundering has exhausted America’s international credibility … ultimately shaking the very foundations of its superpower.”